A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Tonight's report from the fort..

    Yes, today's slugfest was a road game, but I took advantage of Peter Abraham's invitation in yesterday's Globe to come down to minor league mania and see scattered major leaguers. Well, we saw two major leaguers, Doubront pitched @six innings, and around 100 pitches. I say around six innings because there was at least one two out inning where Doubie had probably reached his per-inning pitch limit. He looked very solid against the high A team from Baltimore, lots of strike-outs, one walk that I saw and two pick-offs. The other big leaguer was Pedro Ciriaco who struck out and tripled in the two times I saw him hit. He and Marrerro alternated at short as rules are pretty loosely enforced in high A spring training games. Swihart was Doubie's catcher and Checini (sp?) played third. Vincio (??) played second and had a double and triple. Checcini did NOT impress me as he booted a fairly routine grounder and he and Swihart did a "you get it" "no YOU get it" with a foul pop that fell between them. We also skipped around to a low A game and a Lowell intra-squad game as three fields were buzzing. It was a fun and relaxed way to spend a few hours. 

    I got to meet Peter Abraham and assured him that he should not be looking over his shoulder as someone on here suggested. Believe it or not he had never heard of me or my reports from the fort. I was mildly disappointed but put my brave face and stiff upper lip on. I was also able to talk to Durbin who pitched the other day and Hanrahan who were both just casually drifting around watching the games. As many of you know I'm here taking care of my wheelchair-bound father-in-law and any time any of these players stop to chat with him it makes his day. So props for those two nice guys especially and there were others who I could not identify except to say that in person they look too young to be driving.



    Thanks again jid.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Drew has a career defensive WAR of 4.2 which is a little above average, as I understand it (correct me if I a wrong). I do not know how many more hits Iggy will take away than Drew, nor how many runs those hits will prevent. If I could accurately calculate exactly how many runs that would amount to, or calculate exactly how many hits Iggy will take away and how much that offsets his atrocious offense I would perhaps allow someone with an OPS of .600 in my lineup. I can't; and you can't either. So I want a guy who can contribute at least somewhat on both sides of the game. It a difference in philosophy. 
    Why do you think the FO went out and got Drew if they have Iglesias waiting in the wings? Not that they are always right, but I think they got this one correct. Credit where credit is due.

     

     



    Fangraph's has him at -22.3 UZR and -4.6 UZR/150, including -10.7 last year (post ankle surgery).

     

    What sacres me most is not the pin in his ankle.

    It's not his low UZR/150.

    It is this:

    Out of 23 SS with 4,500 or more innings at SS since 2006, Drew places 21st in RangR (the range component of UZR). He's plus on DPR and ErrR, but get's killed on range. Most of those numbers were before the pin. I seriously doubt he improves on them in 2013.

    From 2010-2012 his RangR numbers did improve, but he still placed 20th out the top 30 SS by innings (1000+). 

    To me, he is clearly a minus ranged SS. He might make up for some of that by making all the sure plays and turning a DP well, but I'm sticking to my assessment that Iggy can and would make 60-80 more plays than Drew over 150 games in 2013.

    I can understand if you disagree with this, but I am having difficulty understanding hwo anyone who believes if this defensive differential was true, they'd still want the guy who gets 40 (all XBH) more hits instead.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from cassvt2004. Show cassvt2004's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Tonight's report from the fort..

    Yes, today's slugfest was a road game, but I took advantage of Peter Abraham's invitation in yesterday's Globe to come down to minor league mania and see scattered major leaguers. Well, we saw two major leaguers, Doubront pitched @six innings, and around 100 pitches. I say around six innings because there was at least one two out inning where Doubie had probably reached his per-inning pitch limit. He looked very solid against the high A team from Baltimore, lots of strike-outs, one walk that I saw and two pick-offs. The other big leaguer was Pedro Ciriaco who struck out and tripled in the two times I saw him hit. He and Marrerro alternated at short as rules are pretty loosely enforced in high A spring training games. Swihart was Doubie's catcher and Checini (sp?) played third. Vincio (??) played second and had a double and triple. Checcini did NOT impress me as he booted a fairly routine grounder and he and Swihart did a "you get it" "no YOU get it" with a foul pop that fell between them. We also skipped around to a low A game and a Lowell intra-squad game as three fields were buzzing. It was a fun and relaxed way to spend a few hours. 

    I got to meet Peter Abraham and assured him that he should not be looking over his shoulder as someone on here suggested. Believe it or not he had never heard of me or my reports from the fort. I was mildly disappointed but put my brave face and stiff upper lip on. I was also able to talk to Durbin who pitched the other day and Hanrahan who were both just casually drifting around watching the games. As many of you know I'm here taking care of my wheelchair-bound father-in-law and any time any of these players stop to chat with him it makes his day. So props for those two nice guys especially and there were others who I could not identify except to say that in person they look too young to be driving.

     



    Thanks again jid.

     



    Awesome Jid. I miss being down there.  Did you happen to see what Henry Owens did in one of those games yesterday? 15 batters, 13 strikeouts. A 6'6" 20 yr old lefty to get excited about.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Awesome Jid. I miss being down there.  Did you happen to see what Henry Owens did in one of those games yesterday? 15 batters, 13 strikeouts. A 6'6" 20 yr old lefty to get excited about.

    Awesome!

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Cass, I didn't see Owens pitch, that was on Sunday, but I did get to see him up close. He's a stringbean! If he can add some more muscle (I read that he added 15 ponuds this offseason but they were very well hidden behind his skin and bones!) he can probably add a few more MPH on his fastball. I don't think he shaves yet, so lots of development is yet to come. He is very tall; listed at 6'7", but his skinny frame makes him seem even taller. Durbin (sorry I don't know his first name) was still buzzing about it yesterday.

    Just an aside, I am rooting for this guy Durbin to do well. The Sox signed him as a minor league free agent; he's been in pro ball for 13 years. He couldn't have been nicer to me and my father-in-law. And it wasn't just us as he seemed to be willing to chat with anyone passing by. He's most likely ticketed for Pawtucket's pen, but he's a perfect example of a guy who just doesn't want to let it go and see what the real world is like. He's been in Japan for a few years and in a few major league systems along the way. He's  certainly a long shot to ever help the Sox, but I hope he catches on with someone; nice guys deserve that much.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Cass, I didn't see Owens pitch, that was on Sunday, but I did get to see him up close. He's a stringbean! If he can add some more muscle (I read that he added 15 ponuds this offseason but they were very well hidden behind his skin and bones!) he can probably add a few more MPH on his fastball. I don't think he shaves yet, so lots of development is yet to come. He is very tall; listed at 6'7", but his skinny frame makes him seem even taller. Durbin (sorry I don't know his first name) was still buzzing about it yesterday.

    Just an aside, I am rooting for this guy Durbin to do well. The Sox signed him as a minor league free agent; he's been in pro ball for 13 years. He couldn't have been nicer to me and my father-in-law. And it wasn't just us as he seemed to be willing to chat with anyone passing by. He's most likely ticketed for Pawtucket's pen, but he's a perfect example of a guy who just doesn't want to let it go and see what the real world is like. He's been in Japan for a few years and in a few major league systems along the way. He's  certainly a long shot to ever help the Sox, but I hope he catches on with someone; nice guys deserve that much.



    Sounds like a classy guy. I hope he makes it somewhere.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here's my starting line-ups, assuming JBJ is here and everyone is healthy:

     

           vs RHPs         vs LHP

    1)             L Bradley

    2)             L Ellsbury

    3)             R Pedroia

    4)             L Ortiz (While Papi is out, Gomes/Nava at DH batting 6th-Naps 4/Midd 5th)

    5)             R Napoli

    6)             R Middlebrooks

    7)  L Salty           R Ross 

    8)  L Gomes        R Victorino  (an expensive platoon)

    9)             R Iglesias               (Drew will send Iggy packing against my idea)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    FWIW moon, Gomes HAS been putting good swings on RHP this spring... not saying he will suddenly hit RHP as good as he hits LHP but it could improve.. or it could just be spring training

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    FWIW moon, Gomes HAS been putting good swings on RHP this spring... not saying he will suddenly hit RHP as good as he hits LHP but it could improve.. or it could just be spring training



    I don't trust Gomes vs RHPs for any extended time. Nava is more proven, and now we should have JBJ to play OF.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    This Owens news is pretty big. The potential of 4 top starting prospects and possibly others to emerge from last year's crop this year. Not to mention great draft position this year. The future is starting to look really good for the Sox on the farm. 

    Unless we are talking about those 13 of 15 who actually got struck out by Owens last sunday....

    Personally, I'll still take that news in a heartbeat. I don't mind having 90% cannon fodder down there if a Napoleon or 2 emerge each year. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Never got the Drew signing, or the Gomes signing for that matter. W/ Victorino signed, there was one open OF spot that, in times like these, should have been left open. Nava, JBJ, if Kalish didn't get hurt you cld added him too, maybe Brentz. inking Drew came out of nowhere for many because AGAIN, we HAVE depth there. Hope all this gets sorted out. W/ Papi out, Gomes might prove to be a happy mistake. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    This Owens news is pretty big. The potential of 4 top starting prospects and possibly others to emerge from last year's crop this year. Not to mention great draft position this year. The future is starting to look really good for the Sox on the farm. 

    Unless we are talking about those 13 of 15 who actually got struck out by Owens last sunday....

    Personally, I'll still take that news in a heartbeat. I don't mind having 90% cannon fodder down there if a Napoleon or 2 emerge each year. 




    Things are looking good on the farm and w/ the #7 overall pick this year it will only help. Tough time understanding all this Drew bashing? is it because he has a concussion and guys want to kick him while he's down. Look Iggy was given every possible chance to win starting SS job last yr and failed miserably [.118 in 25 games] Boegarts/Marrero are not ready, did anyone expect Ben to open the season like that. Funny the minute Iggy's avg got up to .270 everyone gets back on the bandwagon. Look Drew on his best days if healthy can put up Jeter type numbers offensively, he got 9.5 mil not because he's never done a thing in MLB, other teams were making him offers including the A's who had him for there stretch drive to the playoffs. As for defense metrics, watched the defensive metric guru JJ Hardy vs RS the other day. Lyle Overbay [LH] at plate, man on 1st ground ball [not hard hit] by Overbay to SS side of bag and Hardy has tough time getting to ball and can't get to ball to turn Dbl play. LH up man on 1st and he can't get to a softly hit groundball, this is the problem I have w/ defensive metrics - its all judgement based. This is the SS that metrics love? If ever you should get to a ground ball on left side of 2nd base its w/ a runner on 1st and a LH batter up!

    Look not here to bash Iggy, want to see him succeed as much as anyone, be crazy not to love that glove. But not willing to say hitting 270 in ST is some great accomplishment. He must prove he can do it on a consistent basis. Drew will be the starter when healthy and/or until Iggy proves he can hit at least be a decent bat at MLB level.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    This Owens news is pretty big. The potential of 4 top starting prospects and possibly others to emerge from last year's crop this year. Not to mention great draft position this year. The future is starting to look really good for the Sox on the farm. 

    Unless we are talking about those 13 of 15 who actually got struck out by Owens last sunday....

    Personally, I'll still take that news in a heartbeat. I don't mind having 90% cannon fodder down there if a Napoleon or 2 emerge each year. 



    We have drafted several pitchers high in the draft the last 2 years. Some of them should start to emerge as well.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Things are looking good on the farm and w/ the #7 overall pick this year it will only help. Tough time understanding all this Drew bashing? is it because he has a concussion and guys want to kick him while he's down.

    Most of us are against the Drew signing were against the Drew signing the day it happened and not since the injury.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     Look Iggy was given every possible chance to win starting SS job last yr and failed miserably [.118 in 25 games] 

    Please, stop the 25 game sample size definitive assesments.  We have years and years of data to "bash" Drew with. You are using 25 games to bash Iggy. Please stop.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Look not here to bash Iggy

    Saying we did not like the Drew signing and prefer Iggy is not bashing Drew either. We all want him to do well.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Never got the Drew signing, or the Gomes signing for that matter. W/ Victorino signed, there was one open OF spot that, in times like these, should have been left open. Nava, JBJ, if Kalish didn't get hurt you cld added him too, maybe Brentz. inking Drew came out of nowhere for many because AGAIN, we HAVE depth there. Hope all this gets sorted out. W/ Papi out, Gomes might prove to be a happy mistake. 

     



    with the loss of CC AND Ross we had 2 OF spots open. NOBODY predicted that JBJ would be ready by opening day 2014. NO ONE!

     

    last year we had wiggle room in the OF and look what happened, a few injuries and we had an OF of Nava, Sweeny and Kalish with Repko/lin and other MiBL players making regular appearances. I can see why they wanted to make sure they had enough starters and enough depth to survive another injury filled season. BTW Gomes was signed BEFORE victorino.....

    as for the drew signing, what did Iggy do to show he was ready for the bigs?? his MiLB stats were sub-par at best and his short stint in the MLB speaks for itself. Aside from Ciriaco and Holt(who wasn't in the mix until we made the Hanrahan trade a month ago), we really don't have any ML ready SSs in the organization. Not Iggy, Not boggy, not Marerro, not Lin. So it make sense that BC would look outside the org for a SS.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    FWIW moon, Gomes HAS been putting good swings on RHP this spring... not saying he will suddenly hit RHP as good as he hits LHP but it could improve.. or it could just be spring training

     



    I don't trust Gomes vs RHPs for any extended time. Nava is more proven, and now we should have JBJ to play OF.

     

     



    Me either I like Nava.  Not sure about Victotino  for that matter.. Both will be hard to move especially Vic.  The Red Sox overlooked Bradley costing us money we could have better spent. 

     



    funny, i don't remember you calling out BC when he signed shane/Gomes because JBJ is ML ready... in fact, no one predicted that JBJ would vie for a ML roster spot in 2014. People said that he would likely get a sept callup but NO ONE predicted that he would compete for an opening day roster spot.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    FWIW moon, Gomes HAS been putting good swings on RHP this spring... not saying he will suddenly hit RHP as good as he hits LHP but it could improve.. or it could just be spring training

     



    I don't trust Gomes vs RHPs for any extended time. Nava is more proven, and now we should have JBJ to play OF.

     

     



    Me either I like Nava.  Not sure about Victotino  for that matter.. Both will be hard to move especially Vic.  The Red Sox overlooked Bradley costing us money we could have better spent. 

     

     



    funny, i don't remember you calling out BC when he signed shane/Gomes because JBJ is ML ready... in fact, no one predicted that JBJ would vie for a ML roster spot in 2014. People said that he would likely get a sept callup but NO ONE predicted that he would compete for an opening day roster spot.

     




    Not with his AA numbers, they didn't.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    softy will soon be telling everyone he called it.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Never got the Drew signing, or the Gomes signing for that matter. W/ Victorino signed, there was one open OF spot that, in times like these, should have been left open. Nava, JBJ, if Kalish didn't get hurt you cld added him too, maybe Brentz. inking Drew came out of nowhere for many because AGAIN, we HAVE depth there. Hope all this gets sorted out. W/ Papi out, Gomes might prove to be a happy mistake. 

     



    with the loss of CC AND Ross we had 2 OF spots open. NOBODY predicted that JBJ would be ready by opening day 2014. NO ONE!

     

    last year we had wiggle room in the OF and look what happened, a few injuries and we had an OF of Nava, Sweeny and Kalish with Repko/lin and other MiBL players making regular appearances. I can see why they wanted to make sure they had enough starters and enough depth to survive another injury filled season. BTW Gomes was signed BEFORE victorino.....

    as for the drew signing, what did Iggy do to show he was ready for the bigs?? his MiLB stats were sub-par at best and his short stint in the MLB speaks for itself. Aside from Ciriaco and Holt(who wasn't in the mix until we made the Hanrahan trade a month ago), we really don't have any ML ready SSs in the organization. Not Iggy, Not boggy, not Marerro, not Lin. So it make sense that BC would look outside the org for a SS.



    I never said anyone did predict JBJ too be this good Or MLB ready. I could have sworn we signed Vic before Gomes but you cld be right. You probly right. 

    The Drew signing was still a surprise to me, I thought Iggy was a lock no matter what. Pedroia never showed that much when he came up either. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Never got the Drew signing, or the Gomes signing for that matter. W/ Victorino signed, there was one open OF spot that, in times like these, should have been left open. Nava, JBJ, if Kalish didn't get hurt you cld added him too, maybe Brentz. inking Drew came out of nowhere for many because AGAIN, we HAVE depth there. Hope all this gets sorted out. W/ Papi out, Gomes might prove to be a happy mistake. 

     



    with the loss of CC AND Ross we had 2 OF spots open. NOBODY predicted that JBJ would be ready by opening day 2014. NO ONE!

     

    last year we had wiggle room in the OF and look what happened, a few injuries and we had an OF of Nava, Sweeny and Kalish with Repko/lin and other MiBL players making regular appearances. I can see why they wanted to make sure they had enough starters and enough depth to survive another injury filled season. BTW Gomes was signed BEFORE victorino.....

    as for the drew signing, what did Iggy do to show he was ready for the bigs?? his MiLB stats were sub-par at best and his short stint in the MLB speaks for itself. Aside from Ciriaco and Holt(who wasn't in the mix until we made the Hanrahan trade a month ago), we really don't have any ML ready SSs in the organization. Not Iggy, Not boggy, not Marerro, not Lin. So it make sense that BC would look outside the org for a SS.

     



    I never said anyone did predict JBJ too be this good Or MLB ready. I could have sworn we signed Vic before Gomes but you cld be right. You probly right. 


    Gomes was one of our first signings of the winter... i think it was D Ross then Gomes (essentially sealing Cody Ross' fate of not rejoining the sox for 2013). Vic was signed during the winter meetings i believe. Gomes was signed much earlier.

    The Drew signing was still a surprise to me, I thought Iggy was a lock no matter what. Pedroia never showed that much when he came up either. 

    the difference is, Pedroia actually showed some offensive proficiency in the minors.... Iggy has yet to prove he can hit. Pedey posted a line of .307/.392/.452 in his time in the minors. he EARNED his MLb spot. the only thing Iggy has earned is praise for his glove and another stint in AAA..

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Still Pedroia batted .170 for his first two months in the majors. Just saying there's a precedent for that line of thinking. 

     

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