A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    Still Pedroia batted .170 for his first two months in the majors. Just saying there's a precedent for that line of thinking. 




    but he still warranted a playing spot. going back to AAA wouldn't have helped him so the only logical step was to play him in the majors and let him adjust. Iggy CAN still benefit A LOT in AAA, putting him in the bigs now would be rushing him IMO. i'd rather see him in the MLB when he's earned it.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     Look Iggy was given every possible chance to win starting SS job last yr and failed miserably [.118 in 25 games] 

    Please, stop the 25 game sample size definitive assesments.  We have years and years of data to "bash" Drew with. You are using 25 games to bash Iggy. Please stop.

     




     

    If not happy with the 25 game sample @ MLB. Could always look at his 3 yrs in minors and a TOTAL of 38 XBH's in those 3 yrs or the .300 slg % or 600 ops in the minors. Look he shown vast improvement this spring, but if your not willing to accept 25 MLB games, why should we think 30 ST games is enough evidence to say he's ready when most of those AB's have been against minor league pitching? Just think he should go back to AAA when Drew is healthy and prove to everyone that he can hit better than he's shown in the past, and prove he's ready for the bigs. He does that then I don't care if they put Drew on the bench or trade, Iggy must prove he's ready first IMO and he has not done that as yet.

    By the way Drew has proven to be better than league avg MLB SS when healthy. Might explain why he had a lot of interest this offseason.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    If not happy with the 25 game sample @ MLB. Could always look at his 3 yrs in minors and a TOTAL of 38 XBH's in those 3 yrs or the .300 slg % or 600 ops in the minors. Look he shown vast improvement this spring, but if your not willing to accept 25 MLB games, why should we think 30 ST games is enough evidence to say he's ready when most of those AB's have been against minor league pitching?

    When have I ever come close to even hinting at the slightest possibility that his ST offense has changed my position at all?

    I have repeatedly said I don't think he needs to have even a .600 OPS to be a plus over Drew, and that OBP is more important than SLG%.

     

    Just think he should go back to AAA when Drew is healthy and prove to everyone that he can hit better than he's shown in the past, and prove he's ready for the bigs. He does that then I don't care if they put Drew on the bench or trade, Iggy must prove he's ready first IMO and he has not done that as yet.

    Yes, I understand your point. I get it. It has merit. However, you are misrepresenting my position. 

     

    By the way Drew has proven to be better than league avg MLB SS when healthy. Might explain why he had a lot of interest this offseason.

    Where's the proof? Fldg%?

    He's bottom 3rd at best on UZR.

    He's only got votes on the Fielding Bible 2 times in his career: once he finished 17th and the other 12th.

    Now, he has a pin in his foot. He is not top 15.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The one deal where we really took a risk was with Victorino IMO. 3 years at $13 mil per year was probably a lot more than he would get elswhere but they look at the numbers and a defensively strong RF is pretty darn important in Fenway and he backs us up well in CF also. They have kept obtaining speedy Outfielders for a reason, and paying top dollar for them. There must be a strong reason for it from a data perspective.

    And if you look at their draft picks it is one CF after another. Ellsbury, Fuentes, Kalish...etc. Speed is very important in their thinking. 

    They obviously wanted to prepare for when Ellsbury is probably gone. Good FA center fielders are tough to find sometimes. They look ahead well:

    2014 Free Agent Center fielders

    Alfredo Amezaga (36)
    Rick Ankiel (34)
    Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Rajai Davis (33)
    Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
    Curtis Granderson (33)
    Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Tony Gwynn Jr. (31)
    Nyjer Morgan (33)
    Andres Torres (36)
    Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

     

    I think Jacoby is going to get paid.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It should be no surprise they signed Drew. It's a 1 year deal. He is a relatively proven commodity. It's not like they didn't give Iglesias a chance last year and they didn't want to have to rely on him when he might not be ready plus he hasn't been able to stay on the field all year yet in his career. He gets hurt quite a bit.

    The Sox obviously want to win every year and they are risk averse. They are big on having lots of depth and for some reason recently they have needed it bigtime.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I get your points here, and it is clear the Sox looked for shorter term deals to both minimixe the risk and to provide flexibility of opening for kids on a fast track.

    Yes, the Shane deal was the riskiest due to the 3rd year and relatively high dollar amount based on 2012 numbers, but when looking at what Cody Ross got one could argue, it's not that bad. I would not have done it. I said this on day one: it has nothing to do with JBJ. If we had traded Ellsbury, then it would have made more sense, but I'm not surprised we are already hearing talk of trading him from a few posters- I mean how bad is that?

    I also wasn't too happy about the Gomes signing, but he looks like Cody Ross at about half the cost.

    We've had a couple years or surprisingly poor offense from our OF. It should be better this  year, but they need to stay healthy.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

    The one deal where we really took a risk was with Victorino IMO. 3 years at $13 mil per year was probably a lot more than he would get elswhere but they look at the numbers and a defensively strong RF is pretty darn important in Fenway and he backs us up well in CF also. They have kept obtaining speedy Outfielders for a reason, and paying top dollar for them. There must be a strong reason for it from a data perspective.

    And if you look at their draft picks it is one CF after another. Ellsbury, Fuentes, Kalish...etc. Speed is very important in their thinking. 

    They obviously wanted to prepare for when Ellsbury is probably gone. Good FA center fielders are tough to find sometimes. They look ahead well:

    2014 Free Agent Center fielders

    Alfredo Amezaga (36)
    Rick Ankiel (34)
    Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Rajai Davis (33)
    Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
    Curtis Granderson (33)
    Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Tony Gwynn Jr. (31)
    Nyjer Morgan (33)
    Andres Torres (36)
    Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

     

    I think Jacoby is going to get paid.



    Ellsbury will bet paid if 1. He stays relatively healthy this year and 2. He has another great year with the bat. He has had only one of them. And although he gets to a lot of balls other OF do not get to his arm is very weak.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    The one deal where we really took a risk was with Victorino IMO. 3 years at $13 mil per year was probably a lot more than he would get elswhere but they look at the numbers and a defensively strong RF is pretty darn important in Fenway and he backs us up well in CF also. They have kept obtaining speedy Outfielders for a reason, and paying top dollar for them. There must be a strong reason for it from a data perspective.

    And if you look at their draft picks it is one CF after another. Ellsbury, Fuentes, Kalish...etc. Speed is very important in their thinking. 

    They obviously wanted to prepare for when Ellsbury is probably gone. Good FA center fielders are tough to find sometimes. They look ahead well:

    2014 Free Agent Center fielders

    Alfredo Amezaga (36)
    Rick Ankiel (34)
    Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Rajai Davis (33)
    Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
    Curtis Granderson (33)
    Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Tony Gwynn Jr. (31)
    Nyjer Morgan (33)
    Andres Torres (36)
    Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

     

    I think Jacoby is going to get paid.

     



    Ellsbury will bet paid if 1. He stays relatively healthy this year and 2. He has another great year with the bat. He has had only one of them. And although he gets to a lot of balls other OF do not get to his arm is very weak.

     




    I don't disagree, but Jacoby has had a couple of decent to  more than decent years to go with 2011, plus an excellent partial season in 2007 (.902 OPS in 127 PAs).

    2008:  .280  50 SBs

    2009: .301  70 SBs  45 XBHs and a .355 OBP

     

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    The one deal where we really took a risk was with Victorino IMO. 3 years at $13 mil per year was probably a lot more than he would get elswhere but they look at the numbers and a defensively strong RF is pretty darn important in Fenway and he backs us up well in CF also. They have kept obtaining speedy Outfielders for a reason, and paying top dollar for them. There must be a strong reason for it from a data perspective.

    And if you look at their draft picks it is one CF after another. Ellsbury, Fuentes, Kalish...etc. Speed is very important in their thinking. 

    They obviously wanted to prepare for when Ellsbury is probably gone. Good FA center fielders are tough to find sometimes. They look ahead well:

    2014 Free Agent Center fielders

    Alfredo Amezaga (36)
    Rick Ankiel (34)
    Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Rajai Davis (33)
    Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
    Curtis Granderson (33)
    Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Tony Gwynn Jr. (31)
    Nyjer Morgan (33)
    Andres Torres (36)
    Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

     

    I think Jacoby is going to get paid.

     



    Ellsbury will bet paid if 1. He stays relatively healthy this year and 2. He has another great year with the bat. He has had only one of them. And although he gets to a lot of balls other OF do not get to his arm is very weak.

     

     




     

    I don't disagree, but Jacoby has had a couple of decent to  more than decent years to go with 2011, plus an excellent partial season in 2007 (.902 OPS in 127 PAs).

    2008:  .280  50 SBs

    2009: .301  70 SBs  45 XBHs and a .355 OBP

     

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.



    he should be getting Bj upton money.... BJ is horrible. how and why he got paid that much is beyond me.... but then again, everyone in this FA class was grossly overpaid (minus the lower level gambles stiffy desperately wants the sox to sign). Maybe it's a sign of things to come..

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Ellsbury is scuffling to say the least.  Only 4 HR's last year in 74 games, and none so far this spring.  And no stolen bases this spring.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.

     



    he should be getting Bj upton money.... BJ is horrible. how and why he got paid that much is beyond me.... but then again, everyone in this FA class was grossly overpaid (minus the lower level gambles stiffy desperately wants the sox to sign). Maybe it's a sign of things to come..

    1) BJ Upton is just 28 (1 year younger than Ellsbury). 1 more year of prime- one less post prime.

    2) He has 6 straight MLB seasons with 548+ PAs (5straight with 610+). Durability has value.

    3) 5 straight seasons with 31+ SBs. I'm not sure if Ells will ever approach 50 again.

    4) Poor BA (.255 career and under .246 for 4 straight years) and poor OBP (.336 career and under .331 for 4 straight as well) - One would expect more from a FT CF'er.

    5) HR totals have risen for 4 straight years: 9>11>18>23>28.

    6) 162 gm avg: .255  20  75  (37 2B+3B / 39 SB w 12 CS) vs Ells  .297  16  73  (41 2B+3B / 53 SB/12 CS)

    7) Stellar Defense: 2nd best UZR since 2007. Strong arm. (Ells has a better UZR/150, but has played half the innings as BJ since 2007.)

     

    I think Jacoby needs a big season to deserve BJ numbers, but I think someone will pay much much more. I just hope it is not Ben.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    If not happy with the 25 game sample @ MLB. Could always look at his 3 yrs in minors and a TOTAL of 38 XBH's in those 3 yrs or the .300 slg % or 600 ops in the minors. Look he shown vast improvement this spring, but if your not willing to accept 25 MLB games, why should we think 30 ST games is enough evidence to say he's ready when most of those AB's have been against minor league pitching?

    When have I ever come close to even hinting at the slightest possibility that his ST offense has changed my position at all?

    I have repeatedly said I don't think he needs to have even a .600 OPS to be a plus over Drew, and that OBP is more important than SLG%.

    Look offensively there is no comparision. Drew had more XBH's in [1] year @ MLB level than Iglaesias had in [3] years in the minors COMBINED. While Iglesias is the better fielder hands down, its not like Drew is terrible like you try to make it out, he makes all the plays just doesn't have the range of of Iglesias, lets not try to make Drew out to be Eduardo Nunez of the Yanks. I like to think of Drew as more a Jeter @ SS and Iggy as Ozzie Smith before he learned to hit and hopefully Iggy will become a decent hitter just as Ozzie did. But must prove it IMO.

     

    Just think he should go back to AAA when Drew is healthy and prove to everyone that he can hit better than he's shown in the past, and prove he's ready for the bigs. He does that then I don't care if they put Drew on the bench or trade, Iggy must prove he's ready first IMO and he has not done that as yet.

    Yes, I understand your point. I get it. It has merit. However, you are misrepresenting my position. 

    Your position is strictly defense w/ very little emphisis on offense. If that were true than every team should just put out there best defensive players at every position. What makes a player great or a 5 tool player is that they can do evrything well not just defense. The best teams are the ones that can find the best combination of both.

     

    By the way Drew has proven to be better than league avg MLB SS when healthy. Might explain why he had a lot of interest this offseason.

    Where's the proof? Fldg%?

    The fact then when healthy his 6 seasons @ AZ he was a +12 WAR player not bad for a SS. The fact that he played very well for A's 2nd half last season as he finally recovered from horrific ankle injury. This notion that just because you have a pin in your foot your going to be a terrible defender? many players in all sports play w/ similar from past injuries, otherwise probably wouldn't have any players in NFL

    He's bottom 3rd at best on UZR.

    You know my feelings on defensive metrics, very judgemental. Someone sits in stands and determines if another would have made that play. Already talked about JJ Hardy and his great defensive play against RS on Sun as perfect example. He's the metrics guru?

    He's only got votes on the Fielding Bible 2 times in his career: once he finished 17th and the other 12th.

    and Jeter has won Gold Glove how many times. What does this prove?

    Now, he has a pin in his foot. He is not top 15.

    I know just because you have a pin in your foot might as well retire. You might be surprised if you knew how many athletes are playing w/ similar from previous injuries thru HS/College/minors. My son just finished his college football career and played 4 yrs w/ metal plate in his forearm from HS injury. Amazing what doctors can do these days? Wonder if you would think if Iggy had to get a pin in his foot would he suddenly become a terrible defensive player because of it?




     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    If not happy with the 25 game sample @ MLB. Could always look at his 3 yrs in minors and a TOTAL of 38 XBH's in those 3 yrs or the .300 slg % or 600 ops in the minors. Look he shown vast improvement this spring, but if your not willing to accept 25 MLB games, why should we think 30 ST games is enough evidence to say he's ready when most of those AB's have been against minor league pitching?

    When have I ever come close to even hinting at the slightest possibility that his ST offense has changed my position at all?

    I have repeatedly said I don't think he needs to have even a .600 OPS to be a plus over Drew, and that OBP is more important than SLG%.

    Look offensively there is no comparision. Drew had more XBH's in [1] year @ MLB level than Iglaesias had in [3] years in the minors COMBINED. While Iglesias is the better fielder hands down, its not like Drew is terrible like you try to make it out, he makes all the plays just doesn't have the range of of Iglesias, lets not try to make Drew out to be Eduardo Nunez of the Yanks. I like to think of Drew as more a Jeter @ SS and Iggy as Ozzie Smith before he learned to hit and hopefully Iggy will become a decent hitter just as Ozzie did. But must prove it IMO.

     

    Just think he should go back to AAA when Drew is healthy and prove to everyone that he can hit better than he's shown in the past, and prove he's ready for the bigs. He does that then I don't care if they put Drew on the bench or trade, Iggy must prove he's ready first IMO and he has not done that as yet.

    Yes, I understand your point. I get it. It has merit. However, you are misrepresenting my position. 

    Your position is strictly defense w/ very little emphisis on offense. If that were true than every team should just put out there best defensive players at every position. What makes a player great or a 5 tool player is that they can do evrything well not just defense. The best teams are the ones that can find the best combination of both.

     

    By the way Drew has proven to be better than league avg MLB SS when healthy. Might explain why he had a lot of interest this offseason.

    Where's the proof? Fldg%?

    The fact then when healthy his 6 seasons @ AZ he was a +12 WAR player not bad for a SS. The fact that he played very well for A's 2nd half last season as he finally recovered from horrific ankle injury. This notion that just because you have a pin in your foot your going to be a terrible defender? many players in all sports play w/ similar from past injuries, otherwise probably wouldn't have any players in NFL

    He's bottom 3rd at best on UZR.

    You know my feelings on defensive metrics, very judgemental. Someone sits in stands and determines if another would have made that play. Already talked about JJ Hardy and his great defensive play against RS on Sun as perfect example. He's the metrics guru?

    He's only got votes on the Fielding Bible 2 times in his career: once he finished 17th and the other 12th.

    and Jeter has won Gold Glove how many times. What does this prove?

    Now, he has a pin in his foot. He is not top 15.

    I know just because you have a pin in your foot might as well retire. You might be surprised if you knew how many athletes are playing w/ similar from previous injuries thru HS/College/minors. My son just finished his college football career and played 4 yrs w/ metal plate in his forearm from HS injury. Amazing what doctors can do these days? Wonder if you would think if Iggy had to get a pin in his foot would he suddenly become a terrible defensive player because of it?

     




     




    I feel the same way about defensive metrics...At least with hitting and pitching you can recognize trends, strengths and weaknesses. The numbers are the numbers for the most part. With defense theres to many variables to be even remotely accurate.

    Im not saying they are totally worthless, but for the most part I would rely on what I see more than what the numbers say.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    If not happy with the 25 game sample @ MLB. Could always look at his 3 yrs in minors and a TOTAL of 38 XBH's in those 3 yrs or the .300 slg % or 600 ops in the minors. Look he shown vast improvement this spring, but if your not willing to accept 25 MLB games, why should we think 30 ST games is enough evidence to say he's ready when most of those AB's have been against minor league pitching?

    When have I ever come close to even hinting at the slightest possibility that his ST offense has changed my position at all?

    I have repeatedly said I don't think he needs to have even a .600 OPS to be a plus over Drew, and that OBP is more important than SLG%.

    Look offensively there is no comparision. Drew had more XBH's in [1] year @ MLB level than Iglaesias had in [3] years in the minors COMBINED. While Iglesias is the better fielder hands down, its not like Drew is terrible like you try to make it out, he makes all the plays just doesn't have the range of of Iglesias, lets not try to make Drew out to be Eduardo Nunez of the Yanks. I like to think of Drew as more a Jeter @ SS and Iggy as Ozzie Smith before he learned to hit and hopefully Iggy will become a decent hitter just as Ozzie did. But must prove it IMO.

    Drew does have a far better offensive record and 2013 projection than Iggy. I have never argued otherwise, in fact, I have hardly even praised Iggy for a decent ST this year. Iggy's offense has never been part of my argument on why he should play, other than to say something like, "I'm OK with a .600 OPS from him.

    As for Drew's offense, I think he is a top 5-10 offensive SS when playing. He had a great SS offensive production year in 2008 and a decent one in 2010. He's still young enough to expect he can repeat that type of output or even better. I do not feel his .680ish OPS over the last 2 years is indicative of what we will see in 2013. If he plays, I expect him to be over .750, but probably not much higher than .825. His OPS will be heavily influenced by SLG% not OBP, so to me, the value is a bit inflated, but still an good to excellent SS number. I happen to think Iggy can and would save 60-100 hits (almost all singles) over 150 games. I'm OK with people disagreeing on that number, but I will continue to argue with anyone who accepts Iggy probably will make 80 more plays, but still thinks Drew and his .150 to .200 OPS disparity (but only maybe .50 in OBP) is enough to make him the better overall SS.

     

    Just think he should go back to AAA when Drew is healthy and prove to everyone that he can hit better than he's shown in the past, and prove he's ready for the bigs. He does that then I don't care if they put Drew on the bench or trade, Iggy must prove he's ready first IMO and he has not done that as yet.

    Yes, I understand your point. I get it. It has merit. However, you are misrepresenting my position. 

    Your position is strictly defense w/ very little emphisis on offense. If that were true than every team should just put out there best defensive players at every position. What makes a player great or a 5 tool player is that they can do evrything well not just defense. The best teams are the ones that can find the best combination of both.

    No, I have been very specific about what the defense saves vs what I project the offensive disparity is likely to be. I think if they both got 500 PAs in 2013, Drew would likely get on base 40 more times and we could assume they would all be 40 XBHs. That's a huge disparity. Iggty will certainly snuff out many more rallies than Drew. Iggy might gain a little back with speed, but not significant enough to make a dent in that disparity. To me, saving 80 singles on defnse will greatly improve our pitching staff and have a rippling effect not easy to quantify (pitchers go deeper in a game, less pen stress, higher pitcher confidence, etc...). It outweighs 40 XBHS Drew gains on offense. 

    It's not a clear choice, but to me I'd go with Iggy for 150 games and look to trade Drew in June.

     

    By the way Drew has proven to be better than league avg MLB SS when healthy. Might explain why he had a lot of interest this offseason.

    Where's the proof? Fldg%?

    The fact then when healthy his 6 seasons @ AZ he was a +12 WAR player not bad for a SS. The fact that he played very well for A's 2nd half last season as he finally recovered from horrific ankle injury. This notion that just because you have a pin in your foot your going to be a terrible defender? many players in all sports play w/ similar from past injuries, otherwise probably wouldn't have any players in NFL

    I asked for proof he has "proven to be a better than league average SS when healthy". The only "proof" I see is the antiquated FLD% stat (6th out of 21 from 2007-2010, his healthy years). His WAR number is a reflection of his offense. His offense does not make him a plus defender.

    I'm not saying the pin will make him terrible or even worse, but it should not help him improve to the plus side in 2013. I'm not sure how many NFL have pins in their ankles without losing a step.

     

    He's bottom 3rd at best on UZR.

    You know my feelings on defensive metrics, very judgemental. Someone sits in stands and determines if another would have made that play. Already talked about JJ Hardy and his great defensive play against RS on Sun as perfect example. He's the metrics guru?

    He's only got votes on the Fielding Bible 2 times in his career: once he finished 17th and the other 12th.

    and Jeter has won Gold Glove how many times. What does this prove?

    That voters are insane. 

    I trust the guys on the Fielding Bible panel more than those who vote for GG after seeing some players play maybe 1-3 games a year. They once voted a GG to a player who played something like 15 games at the position that year.

    Name one Fielding Bible winner who was not a top 3 fielding player at his position that year.

     

     

    Now, he has a pin in his foot. He is not top 15.

    I know just because you have a pin in your foot might as well retire. You might be surprised if you knew how many athletes are playing w/ similar from previous injuries thru HS/College/minors. My son just finished his college football career and played 4 yrs w/ metal plate in his forearm from HS injury. Amazing what doctors can do these days? Wonder if you would think if Iggy had to get a pin in his foot would he suddenly become a terrible defensive player because of it?

    Stop exxagerating my claim. All I have said is that we should not expect improvement from a 30 year old player with a relatively new pin in his ankle, who previously had very limited range at the most important range position at all levels of the game of baseball.

    If Iggy had a severe ankle injury, I'd expect less range, probably enough to make the Drew-Iggy call a toss-up or leaning to Drew. An ankle to a SS is pretty darn important for that first step, pivot plays, etc...

     





     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I feel the same way about defensive metrics...At least with hitting and pitching you can recognize trends, strengths and weaknesses. The numbers are the numbers for the most part. With defense theres to many variables to be even remotely accurate.

     

    Im not saying they are totally worthless, but for the most part I would rely on what I see more than what the numbers say.

     

    1) You might be surprised that many of the same variables involved in defensive metrics also effect offensive numbers. Look no further than Adrian beltre is Seattle vs afterwards.

    2) Defensive metrics are flawed, as are offensive ones if not adjusted. The SS position is a bit different from many other defensive positions because the sample size of plays in its area is much larger than others. Many SSs make over 1200 plays in 160 games. That's about double the PAs he might get over a season. Yes, there are fluctuations from season to season as there is with offense. Players can"slump" of defense too.

    3) Overall, many fine defensive SSs put up similar numbers from year to year, even if they change teams and home parks. Yes, a staff that K's more batters or allows more fly balls will effect the numbers such as RF/9, but UZR is not effected by numbers of balls hit to the SS area, but rather how many plays are made per play in the area. 

    4) Nobody here watches every play by every SS over a season. To say someone is a top defensive SS, you should not rely on first hand observations of 162 games from one team and 0-18 games of other SSs. The UZR metric involves direct observation by trained people who do in fact, watch every play of every SS, every day, all year long. They only count balls hit in the SS area, and even adjust for how hard the ball is hit. Of course there are other variables, but those exist for hitters too.

    5) I trust a 1-2 year sample size of UZR/150 for the SS position and maybe 2-3 years for other positions. There is not doubt I think Iggy will be a great UZR/150 SS and Drew at best is average.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.

     



    he should be getting Bj upton money.... BJ is horrible. how and why he got paid that much is beyond me.... but then again, everyone in this FA class was grossly overpaid (minus the lower level gambles stiffy desperately wants the sox to sign). Maybe it's a sign of things to come..

    1) BJ Upton is just 28 (1 year younger than Ellsbury). 1 more year of prime- one less post prime.

    2) He has 6 straight MLB seasons with 548+ PAs (5straight with 610+). Durability has value.

    3) 5 straight seasons with 31+ SBs. I'm not sure if Ells will ever approach 50 again.

    4) Poor BA (.255 career and under .246 for 4 straight years) and poor OBP (.336 career and under .331 for 4 straight as well) - One would expect more from a FT CF'er.

    5) HR totals have risen for 4 straight years: 9>11>18>23>28.

    6) 162 gm avg: .255  20  75  (37 2B+3B / 39 SB w 12 CS) vs Ells  .297  16  73  (41 2B+3B / 53 SB/12 CS)

    7) Stellar Defense: 2nd best UZR since 2007. Strong arm. (Ells has a better UZR/150, but has played half the innings as BJ since 2007.)

     

    I think Jacoby needs a big season to deserve BJ numbers, but I think someone will pay much much more. I just hope it is not Ben.

     

     



    moon,

     

    My gut tells me the only way Jacoby remains in Boston next season is by having a great 2013 and somewhat reasonable demands as a FA.  This may be difficult considering the weak FA, OF class in 2014 and the fact some team might over pay Ells. 

    Fortunately there are possibilities to improve 1B, C and SP if guy like Nap, Salty, Lav etc. struggle this season.  FA's like ...  Morneau, K. Morales, McCann, E. Santana, Lincecum, Garza, Floyd etc. are all possibilities.

    My hope is for guys like Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, Iggy, Bogy, Bradley, Brentz and either Salty or Lav to have solid seasons.  If this happens and Bogy can come up at 3B in ST, with Middy moving to IB and Iggy to SS our future should begin to take shape with very few large investments needed for the immediate future.  

    There is a strong possibility this could happen!

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    What do you guys think of the AL East in 2013?  I think it will be a dog fight where all five teams will be beating each other up.  

    In the AL Central, teams will be beating up on the Twins.  In the AL West, teams will be beating up on the Astros.  But in the AL East, there is no team to beat up on.

    Do you guys think this will hurt a team in the AL East from earning a Wild Card berth?  

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    Yesterday's report from the fort...sorry a day late due to internet troubles.

    But my internet came back in time to read that Bard didn't think he pitched badly. I hate to burst Dan's bubble, but three runs, three hits a walk a wild pitch and behind every hitter IS pitching badly! And if not for a great play by Holt the damage would have been worse. If he hadn't already done so, he punched his ticket for Pawtucket yesterday.

    The offense was very quiet. Gomes hit a bomb and had another solid hit. Both Pedroia and Napoli hit balls that would have been homers or wall balls except for the gale winds blowing in all day. Bradley singled and walked and hit a rocket into a double play; he's got to stick! Iggy singled but got picked off first; it's not the first time that has happened this spring.

    Lester was very good again, allowing only two singles in four very clean innings. Bailey, Miller and Tazawa were also all very good. But then there was Bard, ugh! Only two more games at home here, tonight and Saturday afternoon. I'll be putting together a recap player by player before I head home.

    I've already made my case clear on where I stand with regard to Iggy and Drew. No knock on Drew, but I'd play Iggy and let him learn to hit on the job. I'm just old-fashioned enough to think of shortstop as a defensive position. It looks like the team has settled on Carp and Nava and Sweeney as the last three players on the roster, at least until Ortiz and Drew come back. In fact, Ortiz and Drew could well be displacing Bradley and Iggy, as neither of those two should be bench players, as much as I hate that thought.

     

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    softy will soon be telling everyone he called it.




    Softy came on a prospect thread last spring and told us all we were pipe dreaming for talking about JBJ. :-)

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    It looks like the team has settled on Carp and Nava and Sweeney as the last three players on the roster, at least until Ortiz and Drew come back. 



    Correct me if I'm wrong, but one of those three has to be cut.  4 bench players total, minus the backup catcher = 3.  One has to be Ciriaco to cover the middle infield spots.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    It looks like the team has settled on Carp and Nava and Sweeney as the last three players on the roster, at least until Ortiz and Drew come back. 

     



    Correct me if I'm wrong, but one of those three has to be cut.  4 bench players total, minus the backup catcher = 3.  One has to be Ciriaco to cover the middle infield spots.

     



    Oops, I meant that they are the final three looking for the final two spots, you are correct.

    The roster looks like 5 starters Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, Doubront & Lackey

    7 relievers Hanrahan, Bailey, Tazawa, Uhera, Miller, Aceves & Mortenson

    5 infielders Middlebrooks, Iglesias, Pedroia, Napoli & Ciriaco

    2 catchers Salty & Ross

    6 outfielders/ DH's Ellsbury, Victorino, Bradley Jr., Gomes, Nava??, Sweeney ??, Carp ??

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    It looks like the team has settled on Carp and Nava and Sweeney as the last three players on the roster, at least until Ortiz and Drew come back. 

     



    Correct me if I'm wrong, but one of those three has to be cut.  4 bench players total, minus the backup catcher = 3.  One has to be Ciriaco to cover the middle infield spots.

     

     



    Oops, I meant that they are the final three looking for the final two spots, you are correct.

     

    The roster looks like 5 starters Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, Doubront & Lackey

    7 relievers Hanrahan, Bailey, Tazawa, Uhera, Miller, Aceves & Mortenson

    5 infielders Middlebrooks, Iglesias, Pedroia, Napoli & Ciriaco

    2 catchers Salty & Ross

    6 outfielders/ DH's Ellsbury, Victorino, Bradley Jr., Gomes, Nava??, Sweeney ??, Carp ??




    Nava is an obvious choice. I'd go with Sweeney over Carp because Carp is a butcher in the field, even though he probably has more pop than Sweeney.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    What do you guys think of the AL East in 2013?  I think it will be a dog fight where all five teams will be beating each other up.  



    Read that the Yankees hit 245 HRs last year and that the players that hit 201 of those 245 HRs are either hurt, hurt for season, or are not on the team anymore. I think this may be significant considering that when they run out of HRs last year is when they lost.

    Then again,...  it's the Yankees. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    The one deal where we really took a risk was with Victorino IMO. 3 years at $13 mil per year was probably a lot more than he would get elswhere but they look at the numbers and a defensively strong RF is pretty darn important in Fenway and he backs us up well in CF also. They have kept obtaining speedy Outfielders for a reason, and paying top dollar for them. There must be a strong reason for it from a data perspective.

    And if you look at their draft picks it is one CF after another. Ellsbury, Fuentes, Kalish...etc. Speed is very important in their thinking. 

    They obviously wanted to prepare for when Ellsbury is probably gone. Good FA center fielders are tough to find sometimes. They look ahead well:

    2014 Free Agent Center fielders

    Alfredo Amezaga (36)
    Rick Ankiel (34)
    Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Rajai Davis (33)
    Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
    Curtis Granderson (33)
    Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Tony Gwynn Jr. (31)
    Nyjer Morgan (33)
    Andres Torres (36)
    Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

     

    I think Jacoby is going to get paid.

     



    Ellsbury will bet paid if 1. He stays relatively healthy this year and 2. He has another great year with the bat. He has had only one of them. And although he gets to a lot of balls other OF do not get to his arm is very weak.

     

     




     

    I don't disagree, but Jacoby has had a couple of decent to  more than decent years to go with 2011, plus an excellent partial season in 2007 (.902 OPS in 127 PAs).

    2008:  .280  50 SBs

    2009: .301  70 SBs  45 XBHs and a .355 OBP

     

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.



    Jacoby Ellsbreaky OPS in 2008: .729 (this is simply not good enough); in 2009: .770. In 2007 he had a good OPS but it was based on a small sample size (127 PAs). He has a history of getting injured and being unable to play through his injuries. If that happens again and his OPS is in the mid .700s then smart GMs will see that he is not even worth the money you quoted.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    moon,

     

    My gut tells me the only way Jacoby remains in Boston next season is by having a great 2013 and somewhat reasonable demands as a FA.  This may be difficult considering the weak FA, OF class in 2014 and the fact some team might over pay Ells. 

    Fortunately there are possibilities to improve 1B, C and SP if guy like Nap, Salty, Lav etc. struggle this season.  FA's like ...  Morneau, K. Morales, McCann, E. Santana, Lincecum, Garza, Floyd etc. are all possibilities.

    My hope is for guys like Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, Iggy, Bogy, Bradley, Brentz and either Salty or Lav to have solid seasons.  If this happens and Bogy can come up at 3B in ST, with Middy moving to IB and Iggy to SS our future should begin to take shape with very few large investments needed for the immediate future.  

    There is a strong possibility this could happen!

    It could, but I think we have a stronger chance of Ellsbury returning if he was a poor or average season. He accpets a 1 year arb deal and tries to have a monster 2014 season and hopes to stike gold in 2015.

     
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