A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Doubront is building up his innings. He really had never pitched many innings in a year before. It is interesting that Bill James projects him as a 202 innings guy in 2013 with an ERA of 3.70. We will take that. Young pitchers take a while to assimilate into MLB usually. That is a lot of confidence shown in a guy by one of the most respected analysts in the business. I remain pretty confident that the starting pitching staff improves substantially this year.

     



    I'd be surprised if Doubie goes 180 and 4.30, but I hope Bill is right.

     




    If Doubie comes into camp in shape, I still believe 180-200IP is a very possible reality. He really needs to work on his efficiency if hes going to get those IP and bring his ERA down under 4.00.

    He did finish the year very strong which could be a good sign going into this year.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront is also on the 'Verducci list', the SI writer's annual list of pitchers to be concerned about because of the increase in their innings load the previous year. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Doubront is also on the 'Verducci list', the SI writer's annual list of pitchers to be concerned about because of the increase in their innings load the previous year. 




    yeah, he almost doubled his IP from 2011. He did hit a wall like we all suspected, but came on very strong his final 2 outings which could also be a good sign. Hopefully he kept in shape during the offseason and can give us round 180IP this year.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    My sense is the same Moon but Bill James is a data driven guy. Unless he is on the take and they are just positioning Doubront for a trade!

    Really though. Bill James has examined career patterns for thousands of players. He projects what they will do after coming up through the minors and literally thousands of young pitchers even. He's run the numbers and this is wheat he came up with for Doubront.

    I don't believe it either Moon but there is a good chance Doubront does significantly better than last year. We look to have a great pen also, very deep and capable. That should help. If we have some shutdown guys for the 5th and 6th inning that could be a game change situation also. A lot of runs are scored between the 5th and 6th inning as the starters get in trouble. they may be able to bring in a Bard or another stud for that issue this year.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    My sense is the same Moon but Bill James is a data driven guy. Unless he is on the take and they are just positioning Doubront for a trade!

    Really though. Bill James has examined career patterns for thousands of players. He projects what they will do after coming up through the minors and literally thousands of young pitchers even. He's run the numbers and this is wheat he came up with for Doubront.

    I don't believe it either Moon but there is a good chance Doubront does significantly better than last year. We look to have a great pen also, very deep and capable. That should help. If we have some shutdown guys for the 5th and 6th inning that could be a game change situation also. A lot of runs are scored between the 5th and 6th inning as the starters get in trouble. they may be able to bring in a Bard or another stud for that issue this year.

     




    Speaking of Bard, by all reports hes looking like his old self. If thats the case then the Boston pen just got a whole lot better...

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    My sense is the same Moon but Bill James is a data driven guy. Unless he is on the take and they are just positioning Doubront for a trade!

    Really though. Bill James has examined career patterns for thousands of players. He projects what they will do after coming up through the minors and literally thousands of young pitchers even. He's run the numbers and this is wheat he came up with for Doubront.

    I don't believe it either Moon but there is a good chance Doubront does significantly better than last year. We look to have a great pen also, very deep and capable. That should help. If we have some shutdown guys for the 5th and 6th inning that could be a game change situation also. A lot of runs are scored between the 5th and 6th inning as the starters get in trouble. they may be able to bring in a Bard or another stud for that issue this year.



    The thing is, Bill almost always gives tough numbers on pitchers: his projection of Doubront is scary good.

    Doubie's WHIP is a huge concern to me, but he is still young enough to get better.

    200 IP and 3.70 with half your games in Fenway are near ace-like numbers!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    My sense is the same Moon but Bill James is a data driven guy. Unless he is on the take and they are just positioning Doubront for a trade!

    Really though. Bill James has examined career patterns for thousands of players. He projects what they will do after coming up through the minors and literally thousands of young pitchers even. He's run the numbers and this is wheat he came up with for Doubront.

    I don't believe it either Moon but there is a good chance Doubront does significantly better than last year. We look to have a great pen also, very deep and capable. That should help. If we have some shutdown guys for the 5th and 6th inning that could be a game change situation also. A lot of runs are scored between the 5th and 6th inning as the starters get in trouble. they may be able to bring in a Bard or another stud for that issue this year.

     



    The thing is, Bill almost always gives tough numbers on pitchers: his projection of Doubront is scary good.

     

    Doubie's WHIP is a huge concern to me, but he is still young enough to get better.

    200 IP and 3.70 with half your games in Fenway are near ace-like numbers!




    Doubront proved that he has very good stuff last yr. His K/9 of 9.3 was very good and led RS in K's with 167. I am also concerned w/ the amount of IP vs previous year. But think time off he got in middle of year helped him to catch his breath so to speak, and did finish much better. If he takes that next step and reduces the walks, he could turn into at a minimun of a #3 starter for this team. Reduce the walks [4.1/per 9] and watch his whip and era drop significantly. If you have swing and miss stuff trust it and don't nibble so much. He's not one of these Nolan Ryan early years guy who can't find the strike zone, just seems to be trying to be too fine w/ his pitches, has to learn to trust his stuff at this level.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    My sense is the same Moon but Bill James is a data driven guy. Unless he is on the take and they are just positioning Doubront for a trade!

    Really though. Bill James has examined career patterns for thousands of players. He projects what they will do after coming up through the minors and literally thousands of young pitchers even. He's run the numbers and this is wheat he came up with for Doubront.

    I don't believe it either Moon but there is a good chance Doubront does significantly better than last year. We look to have a great pen also, very deep and capable. That should help. If we have some shutdown guys for the 5th and 6th inning that could be a game change situation also. A lot of runs are scored between the 5th and 6th inning as the starters get in trouble. they may be able to bring in a Bard or another stud for that issue this year.

     



    The thing is, Bill almost always gives tough numbers on pitchers: his projection of Doubront is scary good.

     

    Doubie's WHIP is a huge concern to me, but he is still young enough to get better.

    200 IP and 3.70 with half your games in Fenway are near ace-like numbers!

     




     

    Doubront proved that he has very good stuff last yr. His K/9 of 9.3 was very good and led RS in K's with 167. I am also concerned w/ the amount of IP vs previous year. But think time off he got in middle of year helped him to catch his breath so to speak, and did finish much better. If he takes that next step and reduces the walks, he could turn into at a minimun of a #3 starter for this team. Reduce the walks [4.1/per 9] and watch his whip and era drop significantly. If you have swing and miss stuff trust it and don't nibble so much. He's not one of these Nolan Ryan early years guy who can't find the strike zone, just seems to be trying to be too fine w/ his pitches, has to learn to trust his stuff at this level.




    good post gary. i fully agree, he was not very economical with his pitches last season. if he changes that this season he will have many many more IP without getting worn out

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront proved that he has very good stuff last yr. His K/9 of 9.3 was very good and led RS in K's with 167. I am also concerned w/ the amount of IP vs previous year. But think time off he got in middle of year helped him to catch his breath so to speak, and did finish much better. If he takes that next step and reduces the walks, he could turn into at a minimun of a #3 starter for this team. Reduce the walks [4.1/per 9] and watch his whip and era drop significantly. If you have swing and miss stuff trust it and don't nibble so much. He's not one of these Nolan Ryan early years guy who can't find the strike zone, just seems to be trying to be too fine w/ his pitches, has to learn to trust his stuff at this level.

    Bringing the BB/9 from 4.1 to 2.5 or so is a lot to ask for in one year. It can be done, but I'd be very surprised if his WHIP is below 1.300 in 2013.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Doubront proved that he has very good stuff last yr. His K/9 of 9.3 was very good and led RS in K's with 167. I am also concerned w/ the amount of IP vs previous year. But think time off he got in middle of year helped him to catch his breath so to speak, and did finish much better. If he takes that next step and reduces the walks, he could turn into at a minimun of a #3 starter for this team. Reduce the walks [4.1/per 9] and watch his whip and era drop significantly. If you have swing and miss stuff trust it and don't nibble so much. He's not one of these Nolan Ryan early years guy who can't find the strike zone, just seems to be trying to be too fine w/ his pitches, has to learn to trust his stuff at this level.

    Bringing the BB/9 from 4.1 to 2.5 or so is a lot to ask for in one year. It can be done, but I'd be very surprised if his WHIP is below 1.300 in 2013.




    Id be happy with a WHIP between 1.200-1.300 in his 2nd year. especially if the BB totals go down and his efficiency improves...I think Farrell will help him more with attacking the plate instead of nibbling...Especially having the swing and miss stuff Doubie has..

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Farrell should be a plus for him right! As he was with Lester. They wanted Farrell bad. Maybe there was a good reason.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    My point for the last 2-3 months is that this rotation and the depth they have for it has a chance to be good. That's all. A decent chance if some of these guys emerge as studs and the group overall does well. Even 2 studs and 3 mediocre and you've got a good staff. Who knows, maybe more than 1 or 2 have solid years. Lester, Buchholz, LAckey have all done it before. Doubront could emerge. Even a guy like De Larosa could emerge. We have at least a 25% chance of being well above average in the starting pitching staff. 

    Signed by a tempered Pollyanna. Haven't had my coffee yet.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I understand that Farrell is going to Manage now, but he will have significant input on the pitchers which Nieves will follow through with.

    \Farrell, IMO, will have a huge impact on this starting rotation...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    I cannot recall the last time all five teams in the AL East are evenly well-balanced.  This is going to be a very exciting season to watch.  All five teams will be beating each other up.  I doubt any team in the AL East will win 90 games (which happened back in 2000). 

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    I cannot recall the last time all five teams in the AL East are evenly well-balanced.  This is going to be a very exciting season to watch.  All five teams will be beating each other up.  I doubt any team in the AL East will win 90 games (which happened back in 2000). 

     

     




    Good Morning Ice

    So do you think with all the question marks hanging over the ALE, there wont be one 90 game winner?

    Ive predicted the Sox to win 90. But I also think the Jays rays and NYY could too. I think the O's wont repeat the amount of luck they had last year.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     We have at least a 25% chance of being well above average in the starting pitching staff. 

    I'd put the odds at 25% we can just barely get to average.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

     

    I cannot recall the last time all five teams in the AL East are evenly well-balanced.  This is going to be a very exciting season to watch.  All five teams will be beating each other up.  I doubt any team in the AL East will win 90 games (which happened back in 2000). 

     

     

     




    Good Morning Ice

     

    So do you think with all the question marks hanging over the ALE, there wont be one 90 game winner?

    Ive predicted the Sox to win 90. But I also think the Jays rays and NYY could too. I think the O's wont repeat the amount of luck they had last year.



    Good morning southpaw777   :)

    I predicted the Red Sox to win 87 games and earn a wild card berth. 

    If the AL East had a team like the Astros to beat 18 times then yes, there will be a 90-win team or two or even three.   ;)

    But since each team has its flaw, I think 88 or 89 wins will be enough to win the AL East division, and I hope it will be the Red Sox. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Doubront proved that he has very good stuff last yr. His K/9 of 9.3 was very good and led RS in K's with 167. I am also concerned w/ the amount of IP vs previous year. But think time off he got in middle of year helped him to catch his breath so to speak, and did finish much better. If he takes that next step and reduces the walks, he could turn into at a minimun of a #3 starter for this team. Reduce the walks [4.1/per 9] and watch his whip and era drop significantly. If you have swing and miss stuff trust it and don't nibble so much. He's not one of these Nolan Ryan early years guy who can't find the strike zone, just seems to be trying to be too fine w/ his pitches, has to learn to trust his stuff at this level.

    Bringing the BB/9 from 4.1 to 2.5 or so is a lot to ask for in one year. It can be done, but I'd be very surprised if his WHIP is below 1.300 in 2013.




    Really think alot will be said by what kind of shape he shows up in this ST. For RS fans lets hope he's matured and wants to take that next step and believes he's capable of bigger things, or does he sit back and enjoy the little bit of success he had last year. With the #'s that MLB starters are getting paid would think there is a lot of incentive to work hard and be the best you can be, but same could have been said when he showed up in terrible shape 2 years ago. Good news is RS do have some depth w/ De La Rosa and Morales. But young LH's w/ swing and miss stuff not easy to find. It all starts and ends with the starters for this team, not just Doubront. Lester has not been the same pitcher since injuring that muscle in his back, Buchholz never is healthy it seems and inconsistent way to much, Lackey was injured the day we signed, Dempster hopefully will show us he can be a competant 4-5 guy in the AL. A lot of questions, but if staff does come up big under Farrell the team has a chance to contend and could surprise many. As RS fan guess we have to feel this way going into ST.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     We have at least a 25% chance of being well above average in the starting pitching staff. 

    I'd put the odds at 25% we can just barely get to average.



    A 25% chance of being well above average is not a lot to hope for but a case could be made for your position as well Moon. It is a roll of the dice every year but you never know when things will gel. Even a couple pitchers getting hot can chance everything. 

    Here is where we have been historically. Note that this is based upon ERA only, for the entire pitching staff, in a hitters park:

    2012 - 27th

    2011 - 22nd

    2010 - 22nd

    2009 - 16th

    2008 - 9th

    2007 - 2nd

    2006 - 26th

    2005 - 24th

    2004 - 11th

    2003 - 17th

     

    In terms of runs scored again, in a hitters park:

    2012 - 8th

    2011 -  1st

    2010 -  2nd

    2009 -  3rd

    2008 - 3rd

    2007 - 4th

    2006 - 9th

    2005 - 1st

    2004 - 1st

     

    My point? Fenway is definitely a hitters park. You could take the best pitching staff in the country and move them to Fenway and you'd lose at least 1/2 a run per game right there. You could take the Redsox pitching staff to San Diego or Seattle and their ERA would go down by at least 1/2 run per game. The reality is that our pitching staff is better than it looks statistically. Especially when you factor in that most parks in the AL east are hitters parks.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     We have at least a 25% chance of being well above average in the starting pitching staff. 

    I'd put the odds at 25% we can just barely get to average.

     



    A 25% chance of being well above average is not a lot to hope for but a case could be made for your position as well Moon. It is a roll of the dice every year but you never know when things will gel. Even a couple pitchers getting hot can chance everything. 

     

    Here is where we have been historically. Note that this is based upon ERA only, for the entire pitching staff, in a hitters park:

    2012 - 27th

    2011 - 22nd

    2010 - 22nd

    2009 - 16th

    2008 - 9th

    2007 - 2nd

    2006 - 26th

    2005 - 24th

    2004 - 11th

    2003 - 17th

     

    In terms of runs scored again, in a hitters park:

    2012 - 8th

    2011 -  1st

    2010 -  2nd

    2009 -  3rd

    2008 - 3rd

    2007 - 4th

    2006 - 9th

    2005 - 1st

    2004 - 1st

     

    My point? Fenway is definitely a hitters park. You could take the best pitching staff in the country and move them to Fenway and you'd lose at least 1/2 a run per game right there. You could take the Redsox pitching staff to San Diego or Seattle and their ERA would go down by at least 1/2 run per game. The reality is that our pitching staff is better than it looks statistically. Especially when you factor in that most parks in the AL east are hitters parks.

     



    Then go by ERA+

    2012    92

    2011  103  (With a great ERA year bt Beckett)

    2010  104

     

    Just starters:

    OPS+

    2012  108  (Pen: 86)

    2011  104

    2010  98

     

    We were getting worse and we lost one of our top 2 starters.

    Yes, we lost Dice-K, Cook and others, but I do not see Dempster and Lackey turning us from the worst to much better than average. There are too many "ifs"...

    If Lester's 2nd hald 2012 was for real.

    If Buchholtz can stay healthy and consistent.

    If Doubront can improve on his huge WHIP.

    If Lackey can defy age progression formulas and return to his form from 3-5 years ago.

    If Dempster can pitch well in the AL east as he moves further away from his prime years.

    If our good loking 6-7-8 starters can fill in when one goes down.

    To me, we may be lucky if 2 of these "ifs" come true, maybe 3. Thre is not enough to turn us from worst to much better than average. We need 4 "ifs" to come true, or 3 with the others doing somewhere in between.

     

    I understand your point about Fenway's influence on the numbers, but if you are going to upgrade our rotation's numbers due to Fenway, then you have to downgrade our offense's numbers and outlook, as they will likely struggle on the road again this year.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    As RS fan guess we have to feel this way going into ST.

    With all due respect, no one is forcing you to believe in a miracle. Yes, it's fine to hope this all comes true, that's what true fans do, but expecting it to come true is another thing.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I do downgrade our offense considering the Fenway and AL East effect. In a less friendly park for hitters there is no way the Redsox are in the top 4 of the league 7 out of the last 9 years. To have a good staff we need only be around average because chances are we still have a top 5 offense. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I do downgrade our offense considering the Fenway and AL East effect. In a less friendly park for hitters there is no way the Redsox are in the top 4 of the league 7 out of the last 9 years. To have a good staff we need only be around average because chances are we still have a top 5 offense. 



    Top 5 on a neutral field?

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    I do downgrade our offense considering the Fenway and AL East effect. In a less friendly park for hitters there is no way the Redsox are in the top 4 of the league 7 out of the last 9 years. To have a good staff we need only be around average because chances are we still have a top 5 offense. 

    Top 5 on a neutral field?

     



    Probably not on a neutral field but the point is this team is not going to score high in standard pitching metrics due to the park they play in and the division they play in and the offense is probably not as good as the numbers indicate either. As with most teams the park they play in and the division they play in are huge factors skewing the metrics. So, the pitching is probably better than the numbers indicate and the hitting is probaby worse than the numbers indicate and that should be a general agreement I would think.

     
     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    FanGraphs columnist Carson Cistulli analyzes the 2013 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

     
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