A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Lester and Buch are looking good. Who will be that key 3rd starter we need so badly to do well?

     




     

    GOOD question!!

    Bofore Lackey got hurt, his performance, considering it was his first start following long rehabilitation, was pretty impressive.

    Maybe the injury is only a temporary setback and the biceps will increase in strength over a little time.

     



    Before the season started, I saw Lackey as the best bet to step into a solid #3 role. As everyone knows by now, I was not confident in any of our 3-5 starters being a dependable starter, and that was the major reason I limited my outlook for our chances this year. I'm still worried, but at least my worries about one of Lester or Buch possibly struggling looks to be less likely at this point.

     



    I have been saying the same thing about Lackey. I think he will end up as our third best SP, though I think his ERA will be around 4.40. Doubront always worries me out there, and I know Dumpster stinks. As for our top two, while good performances are great to see, its only been two starts. I want to see about 8 of them before I am willing to hop on their bandwagon.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Before the season started, I saw Lackey as the best bet to step into a solid #3 role. As everyone knows by now, I was not confident in any of our 3-5 starters being a dependable starter, and that was the major reason I limited my outlook for our chances this year. I'm still worried, but at least my worries about one of Lester or Buch possibly struggling looks to be less likely at this point.

     

     



    I have been saying the same thing about Lackey. I think he will end up as our third best SP, though I think his ERA will be around 4.40. Doubront always worries me out there, and I know Dumpster stinks. As for our top two, while good performances are great to see, its only been two starts. I want to see about 8 of them before I am willing to hop on their bandwagon.

    Yes, it's a small sample size, but I do feel a bit better about our top 2 than I did before the season started.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    "Ye of little faith?"  But Boom, I told you you could call me Polly now too.  Hey, I'm with you also   on bringing up Webster.  Seems like he looked good in ST.  Why not.

    Amp, it's nice to see you posting here again.  You too sound like a gentleman.

    Zito is off to a good start again this year.  I know he won his first game.  I remember you had a couple scenarios with the Giants, Moon.  Oh holy miracle of miracles--that Dodger trade.  Ahhh..   

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Lester and Buch are looking good. Who will be that key 3rd starter we need so badly to do well?

     




     

    GOOD question!!

    Bofore Lackey got hurt, his performance, considering it was his first start following long rehabilitation, was pretty impressive.

    Maybe the injury is only a temporary setback and the biceps will increase in strength over a little time.

     



    Before the season started, I saw Lackey as the best bet to step into a solid #3 role. As everyone knows by now, I was not confident in any of our 3-5 starters being a dependable starter, and that was the major reason I limited my outlook for our chances this year. I'm still worried, but at least my worries about one of Lester or Buch possibly struggling looks to be less likely at this point.

     

     



    I have been saying the same thing about Lackey. I think he will end up as our third best SP, though I think his ERA will be around 4.40. Doubront always worries me out there, and I know Dumpster stinks. As for our top two, while good performances are great to see, its only been two starts. I want to see about 8 of them before I am willing to hop on their bandwagon.

     




    P-G, Dumpster = stinks? Think we might be a little harsh here in our criticism. Stinks is what Dice K and Cook gave us last year, Dempster will be much better than that. He will be a perfect 4-5 guy for RS if he's healthy all year. Should win 13 -14 and lose 12 -13 w/ era under 5, but more importantly should give staff 200 IP something we haven't gotten out of our 4-5 guys in quite some time. I'll take 7 IP and 3-4 runs from him each turn occasionally a really good outing and occasionally a stinker, but we're talking the 4-5 guy here?

    Moon, good to see alot of possitives for RS 1st week of season. Lester / Buchholz being the biggest [Its all about the pitching!] SV and Gomes have been as advertised, bullpen has been very good [still some worries w/ Hanrahan - but hopefully just some nerves w/ new team] JBJ needs to start hitting again or face a demotion when Ortiz is ready [which wouldn't be the worst thing - let him spend his 20 days on farm then bring him back] Ells /Pedroia /Middlebrooks all look primed for big years. But have to admit biggest surprise has been Iggy and his offense, you might be right, he looks ready. Doesn't have to give us a lot of offense just some and has done more than that early. Probably will see Drew shortly but at least he knows he'll need to perform if Iggy continues to perform well in AAA. Good problem to have! But all early signs have been positive and hopefully Lackey only a temporary setback he looked good in his 1st start. But for a change talking about positives w/ RS, not negatives as been last few yrs. Still early though. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, good to see alot of possitives for RS 1st week of season. Lester / Buchholz being the biggest [Its all about the pitching!] SV and Gomes have been as advertised, bullpen has been very good [still some worries w/ Hanrahan - but hopefully just some nerves w/ new team] JBJ needs to start hitting again or face a demotion when Ortiz is ready [which wouldn't be the worst thing - let him spend his 20 days on farm then bring him back] Ells /Pedroia /Middlebrooks all look primed for big years. But have to admit biggest surprise has been Iggy and his offense, you might be right, he looks ready. Doesn't have to give us a lot of offense just some and has done more than that early. Probably will see Drew shortly but at least he knows he'll need to perform if Iggy continues to perform well in AAA. Good problem to have! But all early signs have been positive and hopefully Lackey only a temporary setback he looked good in his 1st start. But for a change talking about positives w/ RS, not negatives as been last few yrs. Still early though. 

    Very early, and like all teams, the Sox will go through a rough patch or two before all is said and done. Let's see how they handle it. Let's see how we handle it.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    Did you guys see that little hook step Nava has developed, ala Bryce Harper? Pretty cool and he knocked that ball right over the monster wasn't it. Perfect Fenway swing.

     




     

    Boom, I heard him mention something about his stance during the post interview, but didn't catch it all.  I intend on re-watching to look for it.

    I do know that I'm really ECSTATIC for the guy.  Good things couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.  I'm sure you read Jid's comment on the very nice conversation they had with him?

    If Nava keeps this up only partially, he'll probably get more right-handed at bats than expected.  And, his defense is certainly decent.

     



    Nava's fundementals were flawless on that shot. He is not a big, powerful guy but he got excellent torque in that swing. It was great to watch, in a game where no one else was hitting.

     

    I gotta say that Baltimore's Adam Jones looks like a beast this year. He looks like vintage Arod up there.

     



     

    With Nava, is it that little toe-tap you're referring to?..a Bryce Harper thing?



    Yeah. It's relatively new in the majors I think but has been taught in those little league tapes for years now.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:

    "Ye of little faith?"  But Boom, I told you you could call me Polly now too.  Hey, I'm with you also   on bringing up Webster.  Seems like he looked good in ST.  Why not.

    Amp, it's nice to see you posting here again.  You too sound like a gentleman.

    Zito is off to a good start again this year.  I know he won his first game.  I remember you had a couple scenarios with the Giants, Moon.  Oh holy miracle of miracles--that Dodger trade.  Ahhh..   



    That Dodgers trade does feel good doesn't it! Ahhhh....!

    And yeah, you are one of the few optimists who were there with me in Spring Training at least Crit! We probably need to change the name of our club from the Pollyannas though as most here have no freaking idea what we are talking about! It was the 2nd movie I ever saw, after Tobey Tyler in the circus. I'm old man. Really old!

    Things can turn around with the right people and they did go out and get the right people. Dempster may not be a stud but he will be a 4.3 - 4.5 or so ERA guy who will eat innings and on this team that should net an average of 13 wins from the 3,4 and 5 guys. And the Redsox know, if any team knows, that durability is real important. If your top guys net 15 plus wins and you have another 3 at 13 wins ( we are talking regular starters only here ) you are close to a winning team already. 69 wins from the starters and then add another 25 from the back up starter depth and pen and you are looking at 94 wins.

    Basically don't we think we can get good numbers from this team if we can keep those 5 starters healthy? I'm projecting some loss of health but a 91 win team. That probably is enough to snag a playoff spot.

    Crit! We have a chance man!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The best part is that this team does a lot of little things well. Victorino does give us solid defense in RF and is solid on the basepaths. I'll line this team up against Dickey every day of the week with Victorino and Ellsbury screaming around the bases, and the HR pop we should have as well in Toronto and Fenway. I'm still concerned that Victorino will not hit that well overall but he has a good chance of being a .280 guy with lots of doubles and triples. With his defense also being a priority and his value on the basepaths he will help us. Not give us $13 mil of value probably but he will help us.

    Toronto should be a good spot for Dickey being a dome and all but it's also cold up there and that is not good for Dickey and it is an easy spot to hit HR. There is good and bad with Dickey. I do think Toronto will be in the mix though and I gotta admit Baltimore and Tampa Bay as well. It should be a solid division. Even more reason to pour it on right now. It's a long season.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It's nice to have a good start for once. We have to keep the rough patches to a minimum though.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    It's nice to have a good start for once. We have to keep the rough patches to a minimum though.




    it'll be nice when we actually play top AL teams. beating up on the yankees and Jays (who are considered a top AL team by some but i think it's all hype) but i want to see how we do against the powerhouses. The Tigers mainly, the Angels, A's and Rangers too.

    and yes, if we keep the rough patches to a minimum and have relitavely good health for once we can make some noise.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    It's nice to have a good start for once. We have to keep the rough patches to a minimum though.

     




    it'll be nice when we actually play top AL teams. beating up on the yankees and Jays (who are considered a top AL team by some but i think it's all hype) but i want to see how we do against the powerhouses. The Tigers mainly, the Angels, A's and Rangers too.

     

    and yes, if we keep the rough patches to a minimum and have relitavely good health for once we can make some noise.



    Health is huge. How we react when we hit a rough patch is something we haven't found out yet.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    It's nice to have a good start for once. We have to keep the rough patches to a minimum though.

     




    it'll be nice when we actually play top AL teams. beating up on the yankees and Jays (who are considered a top AL team by some but i think it's all hype) but i want to see how we do against the powerhouses. The Tigers mainly, the Angels, A's and Rangers too.

     

    and yes, if we keep the rough patches to a minimum and have relitavely good health for once we can make some noise.

     



    Health is huge. How we react when we hit a rough patch is something we haven't found out yet.

     



    i think we'll find out soon enough. Another key to a sucessful season is returning to our domination at Fenway. for years we had one of the highest win% at home and last year it tanked.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    i think we'll find out soon enough. Another key to a sucessful season is returning to our domination at Fenway. for years we had one of the highest win% at home and last year it tanked.

    True, but I thought it was a great sign when we led the league in road runs scored in 2011. We didn't come close last year.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    coolstandings.com now has the Red Sox as the favorites to win the American League East, with a 51 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

    http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?sn=2013&i=1

    ... with the standard small-sample caveats.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Well Boom, I was sour and dour before ST, the RS didn't follow my offseason plan.  But I know at some point you said well, this is what they've done, it's not that bad, let's support 'em, etc. So I decided to root like I always do, and I have been pleasantly surprised early.  However, now don't be upset with Polly, but I am not as optimistic as you about 91-94 wins.  I honestly think it will be closer to 85 if our pitchers hold up--but I'm ok with that.  I really want us to bring along the young players this year and get them contributing:  Will-Da-Beast, Iggy, JBJ, Webster, Taz; if that happens, then I think that will be a good year for us.  To use gardening terms, I think we cut out some deadwood with the LA trade or maybe people that just didn't quite fit in here or had used up their goodwill here--people will vary on that-- but this gives the young kids that you always support a chance to come out of the shadows and grow.  

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Well Boom, I was sour and dour before ST, the RS didn't follow my offseason plan.  But I know at some point you said well, this is what they've done, it's not that bad, let's support 'em, etc. So I decided to root like I always do, and I have been pleasantly surprised early.  However, now don't be upset with Polly, but I am not as optimistic as you about 91-94 wins.  I honestly think it will be closer to 85 if our pitchers hold up--but I'm ok with that.  I really want us to bring along the young players this year and get them contributing:  Will-Da-Beast, Iggy, JBJ, Webster, Taz; if that happens, then I think that will be a good year for us.  To use gardening terms, I think we cut out some deadwood with the LA trade or maybe people that just didn't quite fit in here or had used up their goodwill here--people will vary on that-- but this gives the young kids that you always support a chance to come out of the shadows and grow.  



    Well said. I'm feeling much better after this start, but I still know this team has some weaknesses, including that elusive 3rd big SP.

    I too, had hoped we took another route this winter, but as I have said before, counting the Dodger trade, I like our team better now than before the trade (or if we brought back Beckett, AGon and CC and their contracts).

    I'm a bit upset that Iggy will be ousted from the SS job, but I'm not surprised. I'm sure Ben thinks Drew offers a better full package, but I strongly disagree. I was for JBJ starting in AAA for 9 days to gain the extra year and not have to send him down for 20 days at some point later. I love the energy these two kids bring to the 25 man roster, but they may not be around long, sadly. 

    The Nava story will never get tiring. How can anyone not pull for this darkhorse. (Well, one clown isn't.)

    If Papi returns in form, I love the Nava/Gomes offensive platoon in LF, so maybe that can make up for the loss of Bradley's defense and energy building.

    It's nice to see Lester, Buch and Ellsbury start quickly. We need these 3 to have big years all at the same time to have a real shot this year... and then more.

    Love the 5-2 start. 2 more vs BAL, 4 vs TB, then 3 @ CLE, then home again for 10 games gives us a good chance to get a good lead (3 v KV, 3 v OAK, and 4 v HOU).

    GO SOX!

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    Congrats to Nathan for getting his 300th career save.  But did you guys see the last pitch he threw?  That was at least a feet away from the strike zone but the umpire called it a strike.  Even Nathan was a bit surprised.   LOL

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I was hoping for some update on the Lackey situation today, but haven't heard of anything as of yet.  Has anyone?

    I know people disagree with me on this, but if Lackey is out for a while, I really hope Aceves rises to the occasion so that Taz can remain in his current outstanding position.  Actually, if Aceves isn't decent, Taz certainly has the capability of pitching multiple innings.  In effect, this would almost be similar to stretching him out.  It almost could be viewed as somewhat of a blessing if Aceves days with the team are numbered.  Then, it would be easier for him to slip into the starter role if necessary.

    Hopefully, the above scenario doesn't come true if Lackey is out only a brief period of time.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    Congrats to Nathan for getting his 300th career save.  But did you guys see the last pitch he threw?  That was at least a feet away from the strike zone but the umpire called it a strike.  Even Nathan was a bit surprised.   LOL

     




    It was incredible!!

    Being an ex-pitcher, I feel the same way about umpires as Eckersley does.  I don't like most of them.

    A few years ago, I worked with a fellow who was once in umpire school.  He said that he was told to treat players like sheep...the umpires were the border collies and the players were sheep.  This, of course, didn't help my sentiment towards them..:) 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    amp, I share you concern about Taz, but he may be our best pitcher right now, or at least 3rd best. He has been a starter most of his career, and I'd like to see him return to that role.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    I was hoping for some update on the Lackey situation today, but haven't heard of anything as of yet.  Has anyone?

    I know people disagree with me on this, but if Lackey is out for a while, I really hope Aceves rises to the occasion so that Taz can remain in his current outstanding position.  Actually, if Aceves isn't decent, Taz certainly has the capability of pitching multiple innings.  In effect, this would almost be similar to stretching him out.  It almost could be viewed as somewhat of a blessing if Aceves days with the team are numbered.  Then, it would be easier for him to slip into the starter role if necessary.

    Hopefully, the above scenario doesn't come true if Lackey is out only a brief period of time.



    They are saying he didn't tear any muscle tissue, which I find hard to believe. Microscopic tears almost always occur with muscle strains. They are waiting for him to heal as much as he can in about 3 days before they decide about the DL.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, I certainly can also understand your feeling about Taz.  And yes, he's outstanding.

    Yet, if Aceves is history down the road..and he certainly isn't making many friends in the FO, and Lackey takes longer than expected to heal..even if he's back sooner than later, who's our long inning guy? Mortensen? Morales?..if/when he's ready.

    Can you see Doubront and Taz flip-flopping?

    I don't see anyone else on the roster who's a multiple inning guy.  Unless they DFA Carp and pick someone up.

    I'm first to admit that I'm not as deeply into it as you and some of the others are, but I think that taking Taz out of his present role will open a huge hole.  Although I certainly can see that picking up a long inning guy would be an easier option than 'wasting' a talent like Taz in his present role if other starters aren't working out. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    I was hoping for some update on the Lackey situation today, but haven't heard of anything as of yet.  Has anyone?

    I know people disagree with me on this, but if Lackey is out for a while, I really hope Aceves rises to the occasion so that Taz can remain in his current outstanding position.  Actually, if Aceves isn't decent, Taz certainly has the capability of pitching multiple innings.  In effect, this would almost be similar to stretching him out.  It almost could be viewed as somewhat of a blessing if Aceves days with the team are numbered.  Then, it would be easier for him to slip into the starter role if necessary.

    Hopefully, the above scenario doesn't come true if Lackey is out only a brief period of time.

     



    They are saying he didn't tear any muscle tissue, which I find hard to believe. Microscopic tears almost always occur with muscle strains. They are waiting for him to heal as much as he can in about 3 days before they decide about the DL.

     




    True...hell, there are microtears everytime someone pitches.  It's why they wear about 50lbs of ice on their arms and shoulders after an outing.

    Let's hope it heals fast.  His outing was really decent considering everything.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I would definitely leave Tazawa right where he is. He's not stretched out and we have others ready for the back up starter role. I'm not digging the Aceves option but Lackey may only be out for 2-3 weeks. Maybe even less.

    For deeper starter depth Webster would be getting my phone call if a starter is out more than a month. I wouldn't go with Wright but Ranaudo and Workman are both doing well down in AA ball. Hernandez is not a horrible option. We have some depth.

    Ranaudo had an excellent start today. I think he is on the comeback trail. Better velocity and health than last year. He still has excellent potential.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, you are slowly making your way to Pollyannaville. And you are welcome on that train.

     

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