A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    [quote]

     

    Like everyone else, I'm tickled to death with the team...

     

    I really only worry about bullpen burnout.  Farrell is going to have to really pull the right strings to prevent this from happening.  It's why it's so important when Lester and Buch give us that extra inning or two.

     

    What does ease my concern is the pitching depth the organization is assembling just for this potential problem.

    [/quote]

     

    while that is a general concern i don't think it will happen unless our starting rotation does a 180. They are doing a good job of pacing guys, giving them days off and so on. Also keep in mind that Morales and Breslow will be back soon and be fresh arms to take some work off the arms of more fragile pitchers like Uehara and Bailey. Also like you said, we have a plethora of depth in the minors who can come in and give us a stint here and there to rest up guys when they get worn out.

    I said it in the offseason and i'll say it again. this team has flexibility. which could be one of our biggest assets going forward.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Another 7 inning performance - EXCELLENT. I will say it though - same game same performance and Tito pulls Lester after 5 or 6 innings. 



    Misconception.  Lester had plenty of 7+ inning games and plenty of 110+ pitch games with Tito.

    First 4 games of 2011, Tito's last season, Lester 25.1 IP, 416 pitches.

    First 4 games of 2013, Lester 26 IP, 411 pitches.

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    That is for April 2011... 




    ..which is the last year Tito managed Lester no?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    That is for April 2011... 

     




    ..which is the last year Tito managed Lester no?

     



    Yes, and in 2011, Lester only pitched over 120 pitches 2 times (not saying there is anything wrong with that).

    GS'd 110+  12

    100-109     10

    90-99          4

    <90             2 (including 4 Ip 0 ER in the game he came out hurt)

     

    This year, he has 96, 100, 100 and 115 pitches in his first 4 starts.

    I love the 23-4 K/BB ratio.

    The 1.73 ERA.

    The 0.885 WHIP.

    Great signs for a pitcher who has struggled early in the year as compared to other times.

    Apr  3.88

    May 4.11

    June 2.78

    July  3.83

    Aug  3.83

    Sep  4.14

    Oct   3.51

     

    Here is a closer look:

    Lester's ERA on these dates:

    4/23/12  6.00

    4/12/11  3.72 (5 ERs in his opener)

    4/23/10  6.23

    4/29/09  5.40 (5/15/09: 6.51)

    4/23/08  5.40

     

    Lester almost always has a great start in his last April game that makes his April look better than it was for the first part.

    If he finishes like he normally does, he is on pace for his best season ever. (Knock on wood)

     

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Good stuff, moonslav.  I forgot about Lester's slow starts. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Provided the game gets played tonight, what are the expectations w/ Ortiz being back? He smacked a 90mph fastball out on his last rehab AB. Says he's 100%, but the $ penalty could have a little something to do w/ it. I'm sure he's atleast an honest 90% thouAnd and I think that's good enough for most. Sox offense have been streaky as far as HRs go, but its been early & its been cold too. Hope he solidifies that part if their game Over the next 2 months. If not, im of the opinion they need to make a trade. Ortiz is one of the best, if not the best hitter vs Shields. 57 AB, 17 H,  10 2B, 3 hr, 15 RBI, 8BB, 9 SO, .298/.385/.632/1.016. You could argue Cano is better but he's also got close to 20 more career AB vs Shields. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Good stuff, moonslav.  I forgot about Lester's slow starts. 



    Sometimes there's a story within a story.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    I want to tip my hat to Moon for starting this thread and to all the posters who contribute.

    We all acknowledged the atrocity of the bombings and yet this thread has maintained the major topic...baseball.

    Thank you all for who you all are.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Thanks, amp. Your contributions are greatly appreciated.

     

    How about "no pop" Jed going 4 for 4 tonight?

    His current line:

    .413/.479/.683/1.162

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    I want to tip my hat to Moon for starting this thread and to all the posters who contribute.

    We all acknowledged the atrocity of the bombings and yet this thread has maintained the major topic...baseball.

    Thank you all for who you all are.



    Thanks Amp, this is a diversion we all need sometimes. That's why it's irritating when the thread gets partially derailed by the occasional knucklehead, like on the hundreds of other threads on here.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jed Lowrie...yes, I'm glad he's doing so well.  I always did support him.  I remember that he got a key home run for us and rounded the bases supporting his injured hand.  He tried his best to play through the serious pain he was experiencing.

    It's just unfortunate that he was injured so much of the time with us...a tough break.

     

    Jid, yes, my unritten intent was to separate this thread from all the others.  Actually, it almost surprises me that we're somewhat immune from their infestation..LOL.

     

    God bless America and the superb job by all the citizens of Boston and law enforcement organizations. 

    P.S.  Can everyone believe the job Pettitte is doing for the Yankess?...incredible.

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Jed Lowrie...yes, I'm glad he's doing so well.  I always did support him.  I remember that he got a key home run for us and rounded the bases supporting his injured hand.  He tried his best to play through the serious pain he was experiencing.

    It's just unfortunate that he was injured so much of the time with us...a tough break.

    It upset me that he kept the injury a secret for so long, and I believe that hurt the team.

     

    Jid, yes, my unritten intent was to separate this thread from all the others.  Actually, it almost surprises me that we're somewhat immune from their infestation..LOL.

    Maybe the high number of posts scares them away.

     

    God bless America and the superb job by all the citizens of Boston and law enforcement organizations. 

    Awesome job, but this may not be over.

     

    P.S.  Can everyone believe the job Pettitte is doing for the Yankess?...incredible.

    Maybe he has found a "new drug".

     

     




     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Nava is currently at .435 in 46 PAs this year. It's a small sample size, but...

    Nava also had a .438 OBP in 52 ST PAs.

     

    .352 OBP in 2012 MLB (317 PAs)

    .425 OBP in 2012 AAA (120 PAs)

     

    .351 OBP in 2011 MLB (188 PAs)

    .372 OBP in 2011 AAA (522 PAs)

     

    .372 OBP in 2010 AAA (325 PAs)

     

    .479 OBP in 2009 AA (144 PAs)

    .434 OBP in 2009 A+ (130 PAs)

     

    .424 OBP in 2008 A+ (379 PAs)

     

    .475 OBP in 2007 IND (314 PAs)

     

    There's a pretty long record of an OBP skill here.

    Although Nava has struggled vs LHPs in MLB to date (.319 OBP in just 140 PAs) should we be worried about Nava's OBP vs LHPs?

    OBP vs LHPs only...

    2012 AAA .429

    2011 AAA .374

    2010 AAA .344

    2009  AA  .476/ A+ .475

     

    Maybe this guy can do it FT... just maybe!

     

    Like I said though, it will be hard to displace Gomes vs LHPs:

    Gomes OBP vs LHPs in....

    2012  .413

    2011  .407

    2010  .479

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, as for Pettite's new drug. I don't see any evidence of it. He is actually a bit slower than in his heyday; he's just a very savvy pitcher who never hits the middle of the plate and never throws the same speed or location twice in a row. There's a whole generation of homer-hungry hitters who just play into his hands with their lunging and wailing. For the most part this season, the Pettite game being an exception, the Sox have been taking pitchers "the other way" with great effectiveness. Yes we strike out a ton but for the most part our situational hitting has been excellent. That's what guys like Victorino bring to the table and others then feed off it.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I mentioned the "new drug", since he has a history of P E Ds, but it doesn't mean that is the reason. Pettitte has always been a quality pitcher. I meant no disrespect, but once a cheater, always in doubt.

    I'm not sure he gets more than 20-24 starts this year.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    the Sox are the 3rd team in MLB history to start the first 16 games without their starters letting up more than 3 ER. What a turnaround from last season!!

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    the Sox are the 3rd team in MLB history to start the first 16 games without their starters letting up more than 3 ER. What a turnaround from last season!!




    It is really an amazing turn around.

    It's also nice to see our starters go deep in innings with so few pitches thrown. For example, I think Buch and Shields had about the same pitches thrown, but Buch got us to the 9th. KC needed a middle man, it it came back to haunt them.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    2013 PAYROLL (LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD: $178 MILLION)

    Guaranteed deals (Salary listed is the average contract salary per year)

    John Lackey, $16.5 million
    Ryan Dempster, $13.25 million
    David Ortiz, $13 million
    Mike Napoli, $5 million
    Shane Victorino, $13 million
    Stephen Drew, $9.5 million
    Clay Buchholz, $7.4 million

    Joel Hanrahan  $7.04 million
    Dustin Pedroia, $6.80 million
    Jon Lester, $6 million
    Jonny Gomes, $5 million
    Koji Uehara, $4.25 million
    David Ross, $3.1 million
    Jose Iglesias, $2.1 million

    Jacoby Ellsbury  $9.0M

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia  $4.5M
    Andrew Bailey $4.1M
    Alfredo Aceves  $2.65M
    Craig Breslow  $3.125M
    Andrew Miller  $1.475
    Daniel Bard  $1.8625
    Franklin Morales  $1.4875

    Junichi Tazawa $ .815, Felix Doubront $.5185, Mike Carp $ .5085, Ryan Kalish $.498, Daniel Nava $.5055, Will Middlebrooks $.498, Clayton Mortensen $.5045, Pedro Ciriaco $.5025, Jackie Bradley $.490, Rubby de la Rosa $.4935, Drake Britton $.49, Dan Butler $49, Alex Hassan $.49, Brock Holt $.49, Ryan Lavarnway $.495, Christian Vazquez $.49, Allen Webster $.49, Alex Wilson $.49, Stephen Wright $.49

     

    New Total:  ~ $150M

    Additional expenses

    Benefits, $10.8 million
    Dodgers subsidy, $3.9 million

    ESTIMATED 2013 TOTAL COMMITMENTS:  ~$165 MILLION

    (AS MEASURED FOR LUXURY TAX PURPOSES)

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, the information that you have and share is nothing short of astonishing!..incredible, really.

     

    I'm already wishing it was tomorrow not only because we're on such a role, but I'm just salivating at the thought of seeing Webster pitch.  I kind of wish it was the first game.

    NAVA....the guy just keeps overachieving and it's not a bad thing at all.  He just continues to prove everyone wrong.  The way he gets on base, produces etc. makes one wonder if there will be any platooning.  I'm sure he'll eventually cool off, but even if he does, like Moon has written, his OBP has always been high.

    Has anyone heard anything about Victorino?  I hope the injury isn't anything to keep him out of the lineup.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    it's nucking futs that Pedroia is only making 6Mil per year.. but he will be getting a PAYDAY soon enough

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    it's nucking futs that Pedroia is only making 6Mil per year.. but he will be getting a PAYDAY soon enough



    Pedey extended before his arb time was up. He got longterm security and the Sox got a great deal.

    He's making $10M this year and next, and the club has an $11M option for 2015 with a $0.5M buyout.

    The $6.8 M figure comes from averaging out his $40.5M contract by 6 years.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Moon, the information that you have and share is nothing short of astonishing!..incredible, really.

     

    I'm already wishing it was tomorrow not only because we're on such a role, but I'm just salivating at the thought of seeing Webster pitch.  I kind of wish it was the first game.

    NAVA....the guy just keeps overachieving and it's not a bad thing at all.  He just continues to prove everyone wrong.  The way he gets on base, produces etc. makes one wonder if there will be any platooning.  I'm sure he'll eventually cool off, but even if he does, like Moon has written, his OBP has always been high.

    Has anyone heard anything about Victorino?  I hope the injury isn't anything to keep him out of the lineup.



    Amp, I'm pumped up on Webster as well.

    Nava is off to another great OBP start.

    WOW!

    I haven't watched today's game yet. I missed what happened to SV.

     
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