A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Nava is currently at .435 in 46 PAs this year. It's a small sample size, but...

    Nava also had a .438 OBP in 52 ST PAs.

     

    .352 OBP in 2012 MLB (317 PAs)

    .425 OBP in 2012 AAA (120 PAs)

     

    .351 OBP in 2011 MLB (188 PAs)

    .372 OBP in 2011 AAA (522 PAs)

     

    .372 OBP in 2010 AAA (325 PAs)

     

    .479 OBP in 2009 AA (144 PAs)

    .434 OBP in 2009 A+ (130 PAs)

     

    .424 OBP in 2008 A+ (379 PAs)

     

    .475 OBP in 2007 IND (314 PAs)

     

    There's a pretty long record of an OBP skill here.

    Although Nava has struggled vs LHPs in MLB to date (.319 OBP in just 140 PAs) should we be worried about Nava's OBP vs LHPs?

    OBP vs LHPs only...

    2012 AAA .429

    2011 AAA .374

    2010 AAA .344

    2009  AA  .476/ A+ .475

     

    Maybe this guy can do it FT... just maybe!

     

    Like I said though, it will be hard to displace Gomes vs LHPs:

    Gomes OBP vs LHPs in....

    2012  .413

    2011  .407

    2010  .479

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, as for Pettite's new drug. I don't see any evidence of it. He is actually a bit slower than in his heyday; he's just a very savvy pitcher who never hits the middle of the plate and never throws the same speed or location twice in a row. There's a whole generation of homer-hungry hitters who just play into his hands with their lunging and wailing. For the most part this season, the Pettite game being an exception, the Sox have been taking pitchers "the other way" with great effectiveness. Yes we strike out a ton but for the most part our situational hitting has been excellent. That's what guys like Victorino bring to the table and others then feed off it.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I mentioned the "new drug", since he has a history of P E Ds, but it doesn't mean that is the reason. Pettitte has always been a quality pitcher. I meant no disrespect, but once a cheater, always in doubt.

    I'm not sure he gets more than 20-24 starts this year.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    the Sox are the 3rd team in MLB history to start the first 16 games without their starters letting up more than 3 ER. What a turnaround from last season!!

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    the Sox are the 3rd team in MLB history to start the first 16 games without their starters letting up more than 3 ER. What a turnaround from last season!!




    It is really an amazing turn around.

    It's also nice to see our starters go deep in innings with so few pitches thrown. For example, I think Buch and Shields had about the same pitches thrown, but Buch got us to the 9th. KC needed a middle man, it it came back to haunt them.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    2013 PAYROLL (LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD: $178 MILLION)

    Guaranteed deals (Salary listed is the average contract salary per year)

    John Lackey, $16.5 million
    Ryan Dempster, $13.25 million
    David Ortiz, $13 million
    Mike Napoli, $5 million
    Shane Victorino, $13 million
    Stephen Drew, $9.5 million
    Clay Buchholz, $7.4 million

    Joel Hanrahan  $7.04 million
    Dustin Pedroia, $6.80 million
    Jon Lester, $6 million
    Jonny Gomes, $5 million
    Koji Uehara, $4.25 million
    David Ross, $3.1 million
    Jose Iglesias, $2.1 million

    Jacoby Ellsbury  $9.0M

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia  $4.5M
    Andrew Bailey $4.1M
    Alfredo Aceves  $2.65M
    Craig Breslow  $3.125M
    Andrew Miller  $1.475
    Daniel Bard  $1.8625
    Franklin Morales  $1.4875

    Junichi Tazawa $ .815, Felix Doubront $.5185, Mike Carp $ .5085, Ryan Kalish $.498, Daniel Nava $.5055, Will Middlebrooks $.498, Clayton Mortensen $.5045, Pedro Ciriaco $.5025, Jackie Bradley $.490, Rubby de la Rosa $.4935, Drake Britton $.49, Dan Butler $49, Alex Hassan $.49, Brock Holt $.49, Ryan Lavarnway $.495, Christian Vazquez $.49, Allen Webster $.49, Alex Wilson $.49, Stephen Wright $.49

     

    New Total:  ~ $150M

    Additional expenses

    Benefits, $10.8 million
    Dodgers subsidy, $3.9 million

    ESTIMATED 2013 TOTAL COMMITMENTS:  ~$165 MILLION

    (AS MEASURED FOR LUXURY TAX PURPOSES)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, the information that you have and share is nothing short of astonishing!..incredible, really.

     

    I'm already wishing it was tomorrow not only because we're on such a role, but I'm just salivating at the thought of seeing Webster pitch.  I kind of wish it was the first game.

    NAVA....the guy just keeps overachieving and it's not a bad thing at all.  He just continues to prove everyone wrong.  The way he gets on base, produces etc. makes one wonder if there will be any platooning.  I'm sure he'll eventually cool off, but even if he does, like Moon has written, his OBP has always been high.

    Has anyone heard anything about Victorino?  I hope the injury isn't anything to keep him out of the lineup.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    it's nucking futs that Pedroia is only making 6Mil per year.. but he will be getting a PAYDAY soon enough

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    it's nucking futs that Pedroia is only making 6Mil per year.. but he will be getting a PAYDAY soon enough



    Pedey extended before his arb time was up. He got longterm security and the Sox got a great deal.

    He's making $10M this year and next, and the club has an $11M option for 2015 with a $0.5M buyout.

    The $6.8 M figure comes from averaging out his $40.5M contract by 6 years.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Moon, the information that you have and share is nothing short of astonishing!..incredible, really.

     

    I'm already wishing it was tomorrow not only because we're on such a role, but I'm just salivating at the thought of seeing Webster pitch.  I kind of wish it was the first game.

    NAVA....the guy just keeps overachieving and it's not a bad thing at all.  He just continues to prove everyone wrong.  The way he gets on base, produces etc. makes one wonder if there will be any platooning.  I'm sure he'll eventually cool off, but even if he does, like Moon has written, his OBP has always been high.

    Has anyone heard anything about Victorino?  I hope the injury isn't anything to keep him out of the lineup.



    Amp, I'm pumped up on Webster as well.

    Nava is off to another great OBP start.

    WOW!

    I haven't watched today's game yet. I missed what happened to SV.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Moon, the information that you have and share is nothing short of astonishing!..incredible, really.

     

    I'm already wishing it was tomorrow not only because we're on such a role, but I'm just salivating at the thought of seeing Webster pitch.  I kind of wish it was the first game.

    NAVA....the guy just keeps overachieving and it's not a bad thing at all.  He just continues to prove everyone wrong.  The way he gets on base, produces etc. makes one wonder if there will be any platooning.  I'm sure he'll eventually cool off, but even if he does, like Moon has written, his OBP has always been high.

    Has anyone heard anything about Victorino?  I hope the injury isn't anything to keep him out of the lineup.

     



    Amp, I'm pumped up on Webster as well.

     

    Nava is off to another great OBP start.

    WOW!

    I haven't watched today's game yet. I missed what happened to SV.




    I did not hear anyone mentioning that he is injured. Gomes pinch hit for him with a lefty on the mound for the Royals and he doubled off the wall.

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to NerdatMIT's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Jed Lowrie...yes, I'm glad he's doing so well.  I always did support him.  I remember that he got a key home run for us and rounded the bases supporting his injured hand.  He tried his best to play through the serious pain he was experiencing.

    It's just unfortunate that he was injured so much of the time with us...a tough break.

     

    Jid, yes, my unritten intent was to separate this thread from all the others.  Actually, it almost surprises me that we're somewhat immune from their infestation..LOL.

     

    God bless America and the superb job by all the citizens of Boston and law enforcement organizations. 

    P.S.  Can everyone believe the job Pettitte is doing for the Yankess?...incredible.

     

     

     


    Do you need  a link to a NYY form?>

     




    I think you're subliminally asking to be put on ignore, nerd-boy-pike.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to NerdatMIT's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Jed Lowrie...yes, I'm glad he's doing so well.  I always did support him.  I remember that he got a key home run for us and rounded the bases supporting his injured hand.  He tried his best to play through the serious pain he was experiencing.

    It's just unfortunate that he was injured so much of the time with us...a tough break.

     

    Jid, yes, my unritten intent was to separate this thread from all the others.  Actually, it almost surprises me that we're somewhat immune from their infestation..LOL.

     

    God bless America and the superb job by all the citizens of Boston and law enforcement organizations. 

    P.S.  Can everyone believe the job Pettitte is doing for the Yankess?...incredible.

     

     

     


    Do you need  a link to a NYY form?>

     



    Do you need a link to a thesaurus so you can select more usernames?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Moon, the information that you have and share is nothing short of astonishing!..incredible, really.

     

    I'm already wishing it was tomorrow not only because we're on such a role, but I'm just salivating at the thought of seeing Webster pitch.  I kind of wish it was the first game.

    NAVA....the guy just keeps overachieving and it's not a bad thing at all.  He just continues to prove everyone wrong.  The way he gets on base, produces etc. makes one wonder if there will be any platooning.  I'm sure he'll eventually cool off, but even if he does, like Moon has written, his OBP has always been high.

    Has anyone heard anything about Victorino?  I hope the injury isn't anything to keep him out of the lineup.

     



    Amp, I'm pumped up on Webster as well.

     

    Nava is off to another great OBP start.

    WOW!

    I haven't watched today's game yet. I missed what happened to SV.

     




    I did not hear anyone mentioning that he is injured. Gomes pinch hit for him with a lefty on the mound for the Royals and he doubled off the wall.

     



    Don and Jery said that he came out of the game with back stiffness. which is why Gomes came in. "It wasn't a PH, it was a replacement for an injured Victorino" was his exact words. Which sucks considering the double header tomorrow. I hope it's not serious and he is able to play at least 1 game.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Moon, the information that you have and share is nothing short of astonishing!..incredible, really.

     

    I'm already wishing it was tomorrow not only because we're on such a role, but I'm just salivating at the thought of seeing Webster pitch.  I kind of wish it was the first game.

    NAVA....the guy just keeps overachieving and it's not a bad thing at all.  He just continues to prove everyone wrong.  The way he gets on base, produces etc. makes one wonder if there will be any platooning.  I'm sure he'll eventually cool off, but even if he does, like Moon has written, his OBP has always been high.

    Has anyone heard anything about Victorino?  I hope the injury isn't anything to keep him out of the lineup.

     



    Amp, I'm pumped up on Webster as well.

     

    Nava is off to another great OBP start.

    WOW!

    I haven't watched today's game yet. I missed what happened to SV.

     




    I did not hear anyone mentioning that he is injured. Gomes pinch hit for him with a lefty on the mound for the Royals and he doubled off the wall.

     

     



    Don and Jery said that he came out of the game with back stiffness. which is why Gomes came in. "It wasn't a PH, it was a replacement for an injured Victorino" was his exact words. Which sucks considering the double header tomorrow. I hope it's not serious and he is able to play at least 1 game.

     

     



    We really can't afford to lose SV. Even though Papi's return makes Gomes or Nava available for OF duty, SV's defense and hot bat would be sorely missed.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Moon, the information that you have and share is nothing short of astonishing!..incredible, really.

     

    I'm already wishing it was tomorrow not only because we're on such a role, but I'm just salivating at the thought of seeing Webster pitch.  I kind of wish it was the first game.

    NAVA....the guy just keeps overachieving and it's not a bad thing at all.  He just continues to prove everyone wrong.  The way he gets on base, produces etc. makes one wonder if there will be any platooning.  I'm sure he'll eventually cool off, but even if he does, like Moon has written, his OBP has always been high.

    Has anyone heard anything about Victorino?  I hope the injury isn't anything to keep him out of the lineup.

     



    Amp, I'm pumped up on Webster as well.

     

    Nava is off to another great OBP start.

    WOW!

    I haven't watched today's game yet. I missed what happened to SV.

     




    I did not hear anyone mentioning that he is injured. Gomes pinch hit for him with a lefty on the mound for the Royals and he doubled off the wall.

     

     



    Don and Jery said that he came out of the game with back stiffness. which is why Gomes came in. "It wasn't a PH, it was a replacement for an injured Victorino" was his exact words. Which sucks considering the double header tomorrow. I hope it's not serious and he is able to play at least 1 game.

     

     



    We really can't afford to lose SV. Even though Papi's return makes Gomes or Nava available for Of duty, SV's defense and hot bat would be sorely missed.

     



    most definitely. here to hoping that it isn't serious and he gets well soon.

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    2013 PAYROLL (LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD: $178 MILLION)

    ESTIMATED 2013 TOTAL COMMITMENTS:  ~$165 MILLION

    (AS MEASURED FOR LUXURY TAX PURPOSES)



    One important footnote is that if Napoli's hip condition doesn't put him out of action, his salary increases to 13 million and the total payroll increases to 173 million.  Still 5 million under the threshold.  Plus it's not a big deal if they go a little over the threshold this year.  Next year is when everything changes.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Lester is under control through 2014. (Team option for 2014 at 13 million.)

    Pedroia is under control through 2015. (Team option for 2015 at 11 million.)

    The really good news - Buchholz is under control through 2017. (Team options for 2016 and 2017 at a total of 26.5 million.)

    Locking these 3 up at these terms was one of Theo's best moves. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Lester is under control through 2014. (Team option for 2014 at 13 million.)

    Pedroia is under control through 2015. (Team option for 2015 at 11 million.)

    The really good news - Buchholz is under control through 2017. (Team options for 2016 and 2017 at a total of 26.5 million.)

    Locking these 3 up at these terms was one of Theo's best moves. 



    if only he could have nabbed jacoby too...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Lester is under control through 2014. (Team option for 2014 at 13 million.)

    Pedroia is under control through 2015. (Team option for 2015 at 11 million.)

    The really good news - Buchholz is under control through 2017. (Team options for 2016 and 2017 at a total of 26.5 million.)

    Locking these 3 up at these terms was one of Theo's best moves. 



    They were geart signings (extensions) and somewhat gambles at the times, but really, I think almost every GM in MLB with the resources at Theo's hands would have done close to the same thing. I'm not trying to take anything away from Theo. He got it done, and now we are gaining by these moves. We have 3 key players locked up for several years at close to half their FA market value. This goes a long way towards setting ourselves up for spending elsewhere.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Lester is under control through 2014. (Team option for 2014 at 13 million.)

    Pedroia is under control through 2015. (Team option for 2015 at 11 million.)

    The really good news - Buchholz is under control through 2017. (Team options for 2016 and 2017 at a total of 26.5 million.)

    Locking these 3 up at these terms was one of Theo's best moves. 

     



    if only he could have nabbed jacoby too...

     



    No so easy with a BorA$$ client, and at what cost? Has they extended him before 2011, maybe it might have been at a reasonable price, but if it was after 2011, we'd be seeing a pretty massive underperformance thus far- due mainly to injury.

     

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