A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    18-7 for the month of April.  

    Also, no unnecessary drama this year.  Just a bunch of guys who want to play hard and have fun!!!   Cool

    I like Tuesday's pitching match-up too. Lester vs. Morrow? makes me want to pencil in 19-7 & break off the eraser. 




    Exactly emp9    :)

    Especially against a struggling Blue Jays team.  They look like the LA Lakers--confused and lost.   LOL

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    18-7 for the month of April.  

    Also, no unnecessary drama this year.  Just a bunch of guys who want to play hard and have fun!!!   Cool

    I like Tuesday's pitching match-up too. Lester vs. Morrow? makes me want to pencil in 19-7 & break off the eraser. 

     




     

    Exactly emp9    :)

    Especially against a struggling Blue Jays team.  They look like the LA Lakers--confused and lost.   LOL



    I dont think the Sox have ever stolen a base against Morrow. This might change come Tuesday. I like the HR as much as the next person, but I hate waiting for one. That feeling seems mutual w/ this team under Farrell. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     



    Well, ERA+ is a nice simple measure.  Doubront's is exactly 100 right now.  I doubt there are many #5 starters with an ERA+ of 100 or better.

     



    There are 124 MLB SPs with over 20 IP this year.

    Doubront is slotted at #98 in WHIP.

    He's #119 in BB% (12.6%).

    He's #77 in ERA... not bad for a 5th starter, but if keeps walking guys at a 13% rate, it will be going up, up, and away.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     



    Well, ERA+ is a nice simple measure.  Doubront's is exactly 100 right now.  I doubt there are many #5 starters with an ERA+ of 100 or better.

     

     



    There are 124 MLB SPs with over 20 IP this year.

     

    Doubront is slotted at #98 in WHIP.

    He's #119 in BB% (12.6%).

    He's #77 in ERA... not bad for a 5th starter, but if keeps walking guys at a 13% rate, it will be going up, up, and away.



    Too funny, Moon.  We can all manipulate stats. Doubront walked 3 guys in the first, 1 in the second and then pitched into the 7th without walking another guy.  I'd say he settled down.  In his first start, he didn't walk anybody, in another start, 3 of his walks were in one inning again. They are going to change his pre-game routine to see if it helps, but again, he's a 25 year-old lefty with filthy stuff, so don't expect them to be "trading" this guy any time soon.  The "patience" on this board is non-existent, but still, give the guy a chance to develop.

    Also, let's look at his "not bad for a #5" e.r.a another way.  There are 30 teams with a 5 man rotation, which means there should be 150 "regular" starters.  He's in the middle at #77, so I'd say he's not bad for a #3 starter so far.  

    You are a little hung up on the WHIP thing, but the fact that half of his walks this year occurred in two innings of work should temper the concern a little. I realize that you don't like the guy because his off-season workout plans don't impress you, but he's young, talented and under team control.  I don't see him going anywhere, especially when you consider they will likely extend Lester by the end of this year and Buchholz by the end of next year. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Like our friend Jid has basically said to me 'he's left-handed' what do you expect?..LOL

    Actually, there might be something to that.  It seems that most lefties(me included) have or had trouble with control.  If I'm not mistaken, Koufax and Whitey Ford had control issues early in their careers.  Look at Andrew Miller...great stuff...look at today's right fielder Ankiel...great stuff also, but just lost it.

    It irritates me when Doubront walks people, but I can understand.  And, he does have great potential like many posters here have said...and, he's cheap.  So, although it bothers me, I think we could give him a longer leash.

    Southpaw, I should have asked, did you have control issues?




    I never made it far enough to know ;) I was switched from pitcher to OF.  But I had a cannon for an arm with good accuracy, if that counts...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Like our friend Jid has basically said to me 'he's left-handed' what do you expect?..LOL

    Actually, there might be something to that.  It seems that most lefties(me included) have or had trouble with control.  If I'm not mistaken, Koufax and Whitey Ford had control issues early in their careers.  Look at Andrew Miller...great stuff...look at today's right fielder Ankiel...great stuff also, but just lost it.

    It irritates me when Doubront walks people, but I can understand.  And, he does have great potential like many posters here have said...and, he's cheap.  So, although it bothers me, I think we could give him a longer leash.

    Southpaw, I should have asked, did you have control issues?

     




    I never made it far enough to know ;) I was switched from pitcher to OF.  But I had a cannon for an arm with good accuracy, if that counts...

     




    Wow! It certainly does count!  A very impressive anomaly.  Smile

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront is certainly issuing too many walks.  But on the positive side he's only given up one long ball, and an OPS against of only .671.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    There are 124 MLB SPs with over 20 IP this year.

     

    Doubront is slotted at #98 in WHIP.

    He's #119 in BB% (12.6%).

    He's #77 in ERA... not bad for a 5th starter, but if keeps walking guys at a 13% rate, it will be going up, up, and away.

     



     

    Too funny, Moon.  We can all manipulate stats. Doubront walked 3 guys in the first, 1 in the second and then pitched into the 7th without walking another guy.  I'd say he settled down.  In his first start, he didn't walk anybody, in another start, 3 of his walks were in one inning again. They are going to change his pre-game routine to see if it helps, but again, he's a 25 year-old lefty with filthy stuff, so don't expect them to be "trading" this guy any time soon.  The "patience" on this board is non-existent, but still, give the guy a chance to develop.

    I have plenty of patience. I was never for giving him away, but his attitude, conditioning, and BB issues led me to believe we could have traded him last winter for something better (by including other players).

    I know he "settled down", but the fact is, he's not going to keep a low 4.2 something ERA by walking batters nearly 13% of the time.

    I'm not saying he can't improve. As someone pointed out earlier, several great SPs had control issues early in their careers. I get that. I also get that this season is still a small sample size, but I was really hoping to see an improvement in his BB rate.

    Someone mentioned that he is walking less people this year. I was responding to that point by showing the facts show otherwise. He pitching more pitches per inning and walking 1 more batter per 9 than last year.

    Of course he can turn it around, but so far, I have seen no sign of it. I'm not fooled by one stat: ERA.

     

    Also, let's look at his "not bad for a #5" e.r.a another way.  There are 30 teams with a 5 man rotation, which means there should be 150 "regular" starters.  He's in the middle at #77, so I'd say he's not bad for a #3 starter so far.  

    I'm not cherry-picking stats, but I have never valued ERA more than WHIP.  BTW, he placed 77 out of 124 not 150 in ERA, but your point is still well taken; thus far, his ERA is very good for a 5 starter. His WHIP and BB% is near the bottom of the bottom.

     

    You are a little hung up on the WHIP thing, but the fact that half of his walks this year occurred in two innings of work should temper the concern a little. I realize that you don't like the guy because his off-season workout plans don't impress you, but he's young, talented and under team control.  I don't see him going anywhere, especially when you consider they will likely extend Lester by the end of this year and Buchholz by the end of next year. 

    It's not just this past off season that concerned me. You know he must have heard a lot about his conditioning a couple winters ago, and then it happens again? Sorry, if I don't think people can change their attitudes that easily. I know they can, but it is rare indeed. 

    He could turn out to be a great pitcher, or at least a very good 3/4 slot SP, but I'm getting fed up with the walks, bunched up or not, and the conditioning issues.

    I'm not totally fed up. I know he is not likely to be traded, but I don't see his stock going up at all this year.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon--most of us know  that Doubrant has to cut down on his walks and the amount of pitches he throws during his starts   -seabeachfred

    This was mostly what I was responding to.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The AL East has the best record 1st place team, the best record 2nd place team, the best record 3rd place team, the best record 4th place team (in the AL only), but surprisingly the Blue Jays are bringing up the rear with the 3rd worst record in MLB!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    4/30 Lester vs Morrow  Sox 4-1

    5/1  Buch vs Buehrle  Jays 3-2

    5/2  Demp vs Happ  Sox 9-4

    5/3  Doub vs Holland  Rangers 7-5

    5/4  Lackey vs Ogando Sox 8-3

    5/5 Lester vs ???  ???

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The AL East has the best record 1st place team, the best record 2nd place team, the best record 3rd place team, the best record 4th place team (in the AL only), but surprisingly the Blue Jays are bringing up the rear with the 3rd worst record in MLB!



    I dont know about The Blue Jays, but The Blue Reyes were pretty impressive. 

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    4/30 Lester vs Morrow  Sox 4-1

    5/1  Buch vs Buehrle  Jays 3-2

    5/2  Demp vs Happ  Sox 9-4

    5/3  Doub vs Holland  Rangers 7-5

    5/4  Lackey vs Ogando Sox 8-3

    5/5 Lester vs ???  ???


    5/5 Lester vs ???  ???

    Guessing Darvish. I think Sox win 3-2 or lose ... 3-2.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Darvish is due for a bad game, but I guess you could say the same for Jon.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Darvish is due for a bad game, but I guess you could say the same for Jon.



    I'm hoping Lester's last game was his bad game. ;)

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Darvish is due for a bad game, but I guess you could say the same for Jon.

     



    I'm hoping Lester's last game washis bad game. ;)

     



    He's usually a bit of a slow starter, so it's nice to see the gtreat start.

    2012: 1st 4 starts: 24 IP  16 ER 36 H + BB

    2011: 1st 3 starts: 17.1 IP 8 ER 22 H + BB

    2010: 1st 3 starts: 16 IP  15 ER  30 H + BB

    2009: 1st 8 starts: 47 IP  29 ER 65 H + BB

    2008: 1st 5 starts: 31.2 IP 19 ER  57 H + BB

    combined:

    23 starts  136 IP  99 ER  210 H + BB

    ERA  6.55

    WHIP 2.121

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    4/30 Lester vs Morrow  Sox 4-1

    5/1  Buch vs Buehrle  Jays 3-2

    5/2  Demp vs Happ  Sox 9-4

    5/3  Doub vs Holland  Rangers 7-5

    5/4  Lackey vs Ogando Sox 8-3

    5/5 Lester vs ???  ???



    Still loving ol' Felix Doubront, hey Moon! ;)

     
  18. This post has been removed.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     



    Well, ERA+ is a nice simple measure.  Doubront's is exactly 100 right now.  I doubt there are many #5 starters with an ERA+ of 100 or better.

     

     



    There are 124 MLB SPs with over 20 IP this year.

     

    Doubront is slotted at #98 in WHIP.

    He's #119 in BB% (12.6%).

    He's #77 in ERA... not bad for a 5th starter, but if keeps walking guys at a 13% rate, it will be going up, up, and away.

     



     

    Too funny, Moon.  We can all manipulate stats. Doubront walked 3 guys in the first, 1 in the second and then pitched into the 7th without walking another guy.  I'd say he settled down.  In his first start, he didn't walk anybody, in another start, 3 of his walks were in one inning again. They are going to change his pre-game routine to see if it helps, but again, he's a 25 year-old lefty with filthy stuff, so don't expect them to be "trading" this guy any time soon.  The "patience" on this board is non-existent, but still, give the guy a chance to develop.

    Also, let's look at his "not bad for a #5" e.r.a another way.  There are 30 teams with a 5 man rotation, which means there should be 150 "regular" starters.  He's in the middle at #77, so I'd say he's not bad for a #3 starter so far.  

    You are a little hung up on the WHIP thing, but the fact that half of his walks this year occurred in two innings of work should temper the concern a little. I realize that you don't like the guy because his off-season workout plans don't impress you, but he's young, talented and under team control.  I don't see him going anywhere, especially when you consider they will likely extend Lester by the end of this year and Buchholz by the end of next year. 



    Moon and his whip....lol, gotta love it. How about WINS. Give me 12/14 W,s from my 5 guy who is CHEAP and has very good UPSIDE all day long. I have never seen Moon tell us who we would trade him for? 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, as far as a game in July, I don't know who else has responded but since I'm in Maine anyway and close, I will be completely open and flexible.  Whatever date(s) work for those coming the furthest will be fine for me.  I hope Boom will come so he can fill us in on all the prospects and Jid so we can watch his interview techniques...

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from cassvt2004. Show cassvt2004's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improve.

     

    I see no indication of improvement. Yes, he has the talent, but he looks no better now than he was 2 years ago. His BB/9 has gone up from 4.0 to 5.0 from 2012 to 2013. It's early, but as The Smith's once sang, "How Soon Is Now?"




    I had to reply to Moon, since I noticed that he referenced The Smith's. I know how frustrating Doubront can be with the walks, the hight pitch counts, the taxing of the bullpen, etc... But the talent is there and it is undeniable.  He has swing and miss stuff, which hurts him some because he could help his pitch count out a lot by pitching to more contact and letting the defense make plays behind him.  He doesn't have a long ball problem like a sinker baller who is missing up in the zone.  Don't forget that 25 yr old lefties that are under team control and have struck out over a batter an inning and have won 11 games on a 69 win team are hard to come by.  Really hard.  Lots of lefties don't harness their control until they are in their upper twenties.  His WHIP may never be down below 1.20, but how many #4/5 starters will be?  As Morrisey would say in the song you mentioned, "[He's] only human and he needs to be loved"...  Where is your love for FD, Moon?

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    4/30 Lester vs Morrow  Sox 4-1

    5/1  Buch vs Buehrle  Jays 3-2

    5/2  Demp vs Happ  Sox 9-4

    5/3  Doub vs Holland  Rangers 7-5

    5/4  Lackey vs Ogando Sox 8-3

    5/5 Lester vs ???  ???

     



    Still loving ol' Felix Doubront, hey Moon! ;)

     



    I doubt we win them all, so if I have to choose a loss herre and there, which pitcher is most likely to lose?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     



    Well, ERA+ is a nice simple measure.  Doubront's is exactly 100 right now.  I doubt there are many #5 starters with an ERA+ of 100 or better.

     

     



    There are 124 MLB SPs with over 20 IP this year.

     

    Doubront is slotted at #98 in WHIP.

    He's #119 in BB% (12.6%).

    He's #77 in ERA... not bad for a 5th starter, but if keeps walking guys at a 13% rate, it will be going up, up, and away.

     



     

    Too funny, Moon.  We can all manipulate stats. Doubront walked 3 guys in the first, 1 in the second and then pitched into the 7th without walking another guy.  I'd say he settled down.  In his first start, he didn't walk anybody, in another start, 3 of his walks were in one inning again. They are going to change his pre-game routine to see if it helps, but again, he's a 25 year-old lefty with filthy stuff, so don't expect them to be "trading" this guy any time soon.  The "patience" on this board is non-existent, but still, give the guy a chance to develop.

    Also, let's look at his "not bad for a #5" e.r.a another way.  There are 30 teams with a 5 man rotation, which means there should be 150 "regular" starters.  He's in the middle at #77, so I'd say he's not bad for a #3 starter so far.  

    You are a little hung up on the WHIP thing, but the fact that half of his walks this year occurred in two innings of work should temper the concern a little. I realize that you don't like the guy because his off-season workout plans don't impress you, but he's young, talented and under team control.  I don't see him going anywhere, especially when you consider they will likely extend Lester by the end of this year and Buchholz by the end of next year. 

     



    Moon and his whip....lol, gotta love it. How about WINS. Give me 12/14 W,s from my 5 guy who is CHEAP and has very good UPSIDE all day long. I have never seen Moon tell us who we would trade him for? 

     



    You must not be looking. I made many trade suggestions this past winter. One was Doubront, Salty and Iggy (since I did not think Ben would ever start him) to oakland for B Anderson. (B.A. is doing very badly now.)

    I suggested Doubront and Lester to KC for Butler (B4 Naps signed) and Myers. (If we were sure we would not extend Lester.)

    I suggested Doubront, Bradley, DLR, and Cecchini to AZ for Upton.

    There were more.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to cassvt2004's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improve.

     

    I see no indication of improvement. Yes, he has the talent, but he looks no better now than he was 2 years ago. His BB/9 has gone up from 4.0 to 5.0 from 2012 to 2013. It's early, but as The Smith's once sang, "How Soon Is Now?"

     




    I had to reply to Moon, since I noticed that he referenced The Smith's. I know how frustrating Doubront can be with the walks, the hight pitch counts, the taxing of the bullpen, etc... But the talent is there and it is undeniable.  He has swing and miss stuff, which hurts him some because he could help his pitch count out a lot by pitching to more contact and letting the defense make plays behind him.  He doesn't have a long ball problem like a sinker baller who is missing up in the zone.  Don't forget that 25 yr old lefties that are under team control and have struck out over a batter an inning and have won 11 games on a 69 win team are hard to come by.  Really hard.  Lots of lefties don't harness their control until they are in their upper twenties.  His WHIP may never be down below 1.20, but how many #4/5 starters will be?  As Morrisey would say in the song you mentioned, "[He's] only human and he needs to be loved"...  Where is your love for FD, Moon?

     

     



    "You should be bludgeoned in your bed!"  LOL!

    I have repeatedly said Doubront has nasty stuff and tremendous potential. That is the main reason his trade stock is much higher than his performance record so far. Other GMs feel the same way you do. They would possibly overpay for him. If not, I'm for keeping him. I'm not for giving away great potential, but his attitude scares me, and his WHIP is frustrating. Yes, I value WHIP very highly and always have. To me, it is a true measure of a pitchers effectiveness. I've never been as high on K's as most. ERA+ is valuable as well, but I value WHIP equally for starters and more so for releivers.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Moon, as far as a game in July, I don't know who else has responded but since I'm in Maine anyway and close, I will be completely open and flexible.  Whatever date(s) work for those coming the furthest will be fine for me.  I hope Boom will come so he can fill us in on all the prospects and Jid so we can watch his interview techniques...



    As we get closer, we will firm up the plans to maximize participation.

     

Share