Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 5/5/2013 3:20 PM EDT
In response to dgalehouse's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to dgalehouse's comment:
A couple of thoughts before bed: Pedroia needs to hit second in the order. This is where he is best suited. He is not an RBI guy. He is hurting the team in the three hole. Drop Shane down and hit Pedroia second, Ortiz third and Napoli fourth. ...
1) It's a widely believed myth that Pedey thrives best in the 2 slot.
2 slot: .374/.463/.837 (2678 PAs)
3 slot: .366/.447/.814 (489 PAs)
4 slot: .442/.675/1.117 (139 PAs)
One could better argue batting Papi 3rd and Pedey 4th.
2) Victorino should bat 2nd, but only vs LHPs. His splits are not favorable vs righties (.330 career OBP vs .372 vs LHP). He should not have batted 2nd last night.
3) Nava should bat 2nd vs RHPs not Victorino. (I'd even bat Gomes 2nd vs Shane vs lefties, and if Nava cools down, I'd put Gomes up 2nd until things change.) Nava has a fantastic career OBP vs RHPs: .376. He should stay up 2nd unless he seriously cools down.
4) Papi up 3rd makes a lot of sense, especially vs RHPs.
5) If Shane/Gomes vs LHPs and Nava vs RHPs start to fade, then of course a Pedey-Papi-Naps 2-3-4 line-up can be utilized, but with Gomes and Nava getting on base so well, so far, I don't see the need to make a knee-jerk switch.
6) Having Napoli up 5th lengthens the line-up considerably, and many baseball pundits stress the importance of the #5 hitter in a line-up. Who bats 5th if we go with Pedey, Papi, Naps 2, 3 & 4? Middlebrooks? (Laughable right now) Nava/Victorino-Gomes? (Weak in power) Salty? Drew? I think not.
We should go with this for a while longer:
vs RHPs vs LHPs
2) Nava Victorino/Gomes
3) Papi Pedey
4) Pedey Papi
6) Drew Gomes/Victorino
7) Middlebrooks (Ciriaco?)
8) Salty Drew
9) Victorino Ross
I'm OK with keeping Papi and Pedey set at 3 & 4 vs all pitchers.
Pedey .386/.330/.716 (Poor slg% dragging him down)
Gomes .344/.259/.603 (Shoul seriously avoid ever facing RHPs)
Midds .205/.386/.590 (No better options.)
Nava .364/.579/.943 (Not likely to continue vs LHPs)
Ross .261/.619/.880 (Poor OBP)
Gomes .438/.435/.872 (That OBP needs to bat 2nd vs lefties)
Carp .500/.333/.833 (just 4 PAs)
Pedey .412/.393/.805 (Again, the low slg% dragging down the OPS)
Papi .316/.412/.728 (This should turn around.)
Vict .310/.269/.580 (Freakishly against his career norm)
Ells .255/.245/.500 (Needs monitoring)
Salty .250/.154/.404 (Ross should start vs all LHPs as I suggested in March.)
Pedroia is not a cleanup hitter. You complain about small sample sizes, then use one to argue for Pedroia hitting fourth. Dustin has but 12 RBIs so far. From what I can see , he is pressing a bit. Bailing and trying to drive the ball, he is unable to handle the outside corner. I think he would be more comfortable hitting second. Would probably see more fastballs as well. Right now , we do not have a good option to bat fifth, but that is something that will have to be worked out. Pedroia is out of his element in a power spot in the order. I do not think the batting order should be based on past year's stats. It should reflect current performance.
I am not saying I want Pedey batting 4th based on the 139 PA sample size. I posted the numbers to show that it is a myth that Pedey only does well in the 2 slot. Pedey's slow power start is concerning for the 3-4 slot, but I'm not projecting a sub .400 Slg% for Pedey from here on out.
The main reason I want Pedey batting 3rd or 4th is so Naps can bat 5th not 4th. I think Nava (vs RHPs) and Victorino/Gomes (vs LHPs) get on base well enough to bat 2nd, and they have less power or "pop" than Pedey.
"Current performance" based on what? Just this year? Talk about small sample sizes. Would you bat Carp 3rd or 4th then? How small a sample size is small to you?
Pedey's power will return soon enough, and his high OBP makes him a fine 3 or 4 hitter anyways. Naps has the lowest OBP of our best 5 hitters, and he has power, so he should bat 5th.
BTW, speaking of small sample sizes, Pedey's sample size this year is smaller than the sample size batting 4th I mentioned, yet you want to make a change based on 135 PAs.