A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Shane up before Ells gives us double speed, and Drew hits RHPs much better than SV, so Drew 8th and SV 9th vs RHPs is fine with me.

    Vs LHPs, I want SV up 2nd and Ross or Drew up 9th.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Shane up before Ells gives us double speed, and Drew hits RHPs much better than SV, so Drew 8th and SV 9th vs RHPs is fine with me.

    Vs LHPs, I want SV up 2nd and Ross or Drew up 9th.




    I can live with that. Makes sense.

    I respect Kimmi and her views, but to say batting order doesnt make a difference is just crazy thinking to me. maybe im too old school, but I refuse to buy into that.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Shane up before Ells gives us double speed, and Drew hits RHPs much better than SV, so Drew 8th and SV 9th vs RHPs is fine with me.

    Vs LHPs, I want SV up 2nd and Ross or Drew up 9th.

     




    I can live with that. Makes sense.

     

    I respect Kimmi and her views, but to say batting order doesnt make a difference is just crazy thinking to me. maybe im too old school, but I refuse to buy into that.



    In all fairness to Kimmi, I do think the line-up might not matter as much as many of us have felt it does, but I think she is going to the extreme.

    JuSt in terms of the amount of PAs, the difference between the 1 and 9 slot was over 130 PAs. There's just no way swapping these two does not make a game or more difference.

    I do understand that many theories from tradition may be unfounded and overemphasized, and I have been for breaking some paradigms myself over the years. Some very knowledgable baseball people are saying the 5 slot is very important and the 3 slot is over-rated. I am OK with that theory, but the 3 slot is still very important.

    I do not think the "optimal" line-up would put Papi first. That would mean there is at least one time he gets up with no men on base right off the bat. My guess is the "optimal line-up" would put our best OBP up 1 and 2, so that would move Ellsbury down, at least until he catches fire. Maybe something like this:

           vs RHPs   vs LHPs

    1) Pedey        Vict

    2) Nava          Gomes

    3) Papi           Pedey

    4) Napoli        Papi

    5) Vict            Napoli

    6)         Ellsbury

    7)          D Ross      

    8) Drew         Midd

    9) Midd          Drew

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The sample sizes are small, but here are some interesting numbers:

    Road OPS in the AL:

    1) Cleve  .818

    2) Oak   .812

    3) Boston .798

    4) NY Y   .784

    5) Hou  .759

    6) Bal  .753

    7) Det  .717

    8) TBR  .716

    9) Kansas City .715

    10) Los Angeles .703

    11) Texas  .693

    12) Seattle  .684

    13) Toronto .669

    14) Chicago  .660

    15) Minn  .658

     

    Road ERA

    1) Detroit  2.91

    2) TX 3.42

    3) KC 3.56

    4) CLE 3.67

    5) Bal  3.67

    6) Bos  3.68

    7) Oak 3.69

    8) CWS 4.24

    9) NYY  4.31

    10) MN  4.49

    11) Tor  4.62

    12) TBR 4.86

    13) LAA 4.92

    14) Sea  5.08

    15) Hou  5.49

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I vote for bringing up Aceves tomorrow and Webster too if they can arrange it. Hanrahan is a possible DL right and they should be able to find someone to demote. Maybe an Alex Wilson. They need fresh arms. They can always bring wilson back up later.

    Iglesias was benched during a recent game and not played today. Disciplinary action or is it a possible trade? No rumor at all of a trade though and it shouldn't take 2 days to coordinate usually. He has always been a very solid young man from all indications. Possibly he tried to steal a base on his own and got caught. It could be disciplinary.

    A deal for McCann would be rather cool, especially if Salty was part of it but Andrelton Simmons isn't sitting for Iglesias any time soon. A complete Pipe dream with the longbottom leaf and the best smoke rings Gandalf has to offer. Highly doubtful.

     

    .

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    They clearly need to bring up at least one guy though. For Hanrahan.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    They clearly need to bring up at least one guy though. For Hanrahan.




    Time to demote Doubront and allow Webster to start?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I vote for bringing up Aceves tomorrow and Webster too if they can arrange it. Hanrahan is a possible DL right and they should be able to find someone to demote. Maybe an Alex Wilson. They need fresh arms. They can always bring wilson back up later.

    Iglesias was benched during a recent game and not played today. Disciplinary action or is it a possible trade? No rumor at all of a trade though and it shouldn't take 2 days to coordinate usually. He has always been a very solid young man from all indications. Possibly he tried to steal a base on his own and got caught. It could be disciplinary.

    A deal for McCann would be rather cool, especially if Salty was part of it but Andrelton Simmons isn't sitting for Iglesias any time soon. A complete Pipe dream with the longbottom leaf and the best smoke rings Gandalf has to offer. Highly doubtful.

     

    .




    No. Just think he was hit on wrist by pitch night before and been bothering him a bit.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Both Doubie and farrell say theres no pain or anything that would resemble an injury. Its weird. personally, I think it has to do with his lack of off season conditioning. He threw just under 90IP in 2011 because of injuries due to being out of shape again. He jumped to 161IP in 2012. Thats a signifigant jump in IP, so an off season shoulder program was vital. He had shoulder issues right out of the gate and looked terrible when he showed up to camp. This kid needs to take this more seriously or his spot should be given to someone who does.

    I'm no spring chicken, and one thing I have noticed about human behavior and personality is that it is very very rare for someone to radically change who they are after their teen years. It happens at times, but very unfrequently. 

    Felix and his conditioning really concerned me a few years ago, but I gave him the benefit of doubt and hoped for the best, but I still often suggested trading him based mostly on the attitude issue, not his skillset. Coming to camp out of condition again just about was the last straw, but since he has such nasty stuff, I was OK with giving him a chance to show improvement.

    It is still way too early to judge, but the trend is not encouraging so far.




    Moon agree 100% on this one. 2 yrs ago comes to camp in awful shape and basically is hurt all year and spends entire yr on DL or in minors after having come to the bigs the previous season and having some success out of the bullpen. Last yr comes to camp in great shape and is probably the one bright spot in an otherwise dreadful yr and earns a rotation spot and looks to be a good young starter w/ a bright future in the bigs. Then for some unexplained reason decides to show up AGAIN out of shape. Makes absolutely no sense to me at all, w/ the $ good starters make these days not sure how someone could be so lazy? Season is still young and he could turn it around but if history tell us anything look for him to end up on DL. If he had options I would send him to AAA to get in shape and bring up Webster to send a message, unfortunately we can not do this- Too Bad!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Both Doubie and farrell say theres no pain or anything that would resemble an injury. Its weird. personally, I think it has to do with his lack of off season conditioning. He threw just under 90IP in 2011 because of injuries due to being out of shape again. He jumped to 161IP in 2012. Thats a signifigant jump in IP, so an off season shoulder program was vital. He had shoulder issues right out of the gate and looked terrible when he showed up to camp. This kid needs to take this more seriously or his spot should be given to someone who does.

    I'm no spring chicken, and one thing I have noticed about human behavior and personality is that it is very very rare for someone to radically change who they are after their teen years. It happens at times, but very unfrequently. 

    Felix and his conditioning really concerned me a few years ago, but I gave him the benefit of doubt and hoped for the best, but I still often suggested trading him based mostly on the attitude issue, not his skillset. Coming to camp out of condition again just about was the last straw, but since he has such nasty stuff, I was OK with giving him a chance to show improvement.

    It is still way too early to judge, but the trend is not encouraging so far.

     




     

    Moon agree 100% on this one. 2 yrs ago comes to camp in awful shape and basically is hurt all year and spends entire yr on DL or in minors after having come to the bigs the previous season and having some success out of the bullpen. Last yr comes to camp in great shape and is probably the one bright spot in an otherwise dreadful yr and earns a rotation spot and looks to be a good young starter w/ a bright future in the bigs. Then for some unexplained reason decides to show up AGAIN out of shape. Makes absolutely no sense to me at all, w/ the $ good starters make these days not sure how someone could be so lazy? Season is still young and he could turn it around but if history tell us anything look for him to end up on DL. If he had options I would send him to AAA to get in shape and bring up Webster to send a message, unfortunately we can not do this- Too Bad!



    His trade value may have already peaked, but that and demoting him to the pen are about our only options beyond a phantom DL & rehab assignment. He will likely get a couple more starts on short leash.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Our 2013 starters have averaged exatly 6 IP per start (192/32).

    Our 2012 starters averaged 5.73 IP per start. That a pretty significant differential.

     

    On offense:

    In 2012 our offense scored 0-3 runs 79 times (48.8%), 4 runs 17 times, and 5+ runs 66 times. The median runs scored was 4.

    In 2013 our offense has scored 0-3 runs 12 times (37.5%), 4 runs 2 times, and 5+ runs 18 times. The median runs scored is 5.

     

    Although the Sox offense is aided by playing half the games at Fenway, we are a top 3 road OPS team so far this year.

    Our staff has done a great job so far this season. Of course it is early, and I don't expect these numbers to hold up all year, but so far...

    The 2013 staff & defense has allowed ...

    0-3 runs 16 times (50%)

    4 runs 6 times (19%)

    5 runs 5 times (16%)

    6+ runs 5 times (16%, including just 6% with 9 or more runs allowed))

    The 2012 staff:

    0-3  34%

    4      15%

    5      15%

    6+    35% (including 13% with 9 or more runs allowed)

    These numbers show the main difference between 2012 and 2013. No, it's not "giddiness". I realize the season is early, and we are bound to hit some more rough patches over the next few months, but there are sure some signs of things turning around.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I was just going to suggest we bring up Aceves to be our closer--to get the blood running Boys!--but then I see Boom has already suggested he come up.  I don't really see him as a closer, but maybe after his slap on the wrist he'll want to prove something.  If he can get his head right, I still think he's best in long relief.  I'm all for Webster coming up.

    Moon, I know you don't always go with tradition.  Remember the "co-pitcher" idea you've floated before?  What would you say, just for fun, about the two above?

    I'm pretty excited, the RS are on ESPN today so I can watch them after school here on the West Coast.

    Anyone have a view on C. Schilling's pitching commentery?  He seems pretty knowledgable to me though a little arrogant which may just have been part of his winning formula.  Anyway, I think he would make a good pitching coach if he ever wanted to go in that direction.  Comments?

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Who should be closing for us now?  And Boom, who is McCann?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I was just thinking of bringing up Aceves in case we needed a long reliever. At this point we probably need to look at someone like Tazawa as the closer. I think Webster would just be another fresh arm to use since the pen has been worked pretty hard lately and why not use him for a relief stint just to give some guys a day off? Hanrahan is probably back on the DL. Unfortunately it looks like Bailey is out for a while. I'd just bring up Webster for few days to give Alex Wilson a little rest. Then bring Wilson back up. De La rosa is also an option. Aceves is the guy though for sure I would think. I would consider bringing up someone else though also. I think we need some more depth right now. We could have used a guy like Aceves yesterday. Those extra innings games can be devastating on a pen.

    McCann the Atlanta catcher Crit. They have 3 catchers right now. One is very possibly trade bait ( maybe Evan Gattis who is an absolute animal with 7 HR so far this year and Gerald Laird). McCann is a 6 time all star at catcher. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I vote for bringing up Aceves tomorrow and Webster too if they can arrange it. Hanrahan is a possible DL right and they should be able to find someone to demote. Maybe an Alex Wilson. They need fresh arms. They can always bring wilson back up later.

    Iglesias was benched during a recent game and not played today. Disciplinary action or is it a possible trade? No rumor at all of a trade though and it shouldn't take 2 days to coordinate usually. He has always been a very solid young man from all indications. Possibly he tried to steal a base on his own and got caught. It could be disciplinary.

    A deal for McCann would be rather cool, especially if Salty was part of it but Andrelton Simmons isn't sitting for Iglesias any time soon. A complete Pipe dream with the longbottom leaf and the best smoke rings Gandalf has to offer. Highly doubtful.

     

    .




    why would you want to mess with the chemistry between Salty and the pitchers right now for a guy that doesnt know them and is known more as an offensive catcher. Also fresh off the DL because of a shoulder injury and will need time to get his timing back. Shoulder injuries with catchers arent a good combo. Sorry, but Salty is a much better option.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I was just going to suggest we bring up Aceves to be our closer--to get the blood running Boys!--but then I see Boom has already suggested he come up.  I don't really see him as a closer, but maybe after his slap on the wrist he'll want to prove something.  If he can get his head right, I still think he's best in long relief.  I'm all for Webster coming up.

    Moon, I know you don't always go with tradition.  Remember the "co-pitcher" idea you've floated before?  What would you say, just for fun, about the two above?

    As co-starters? I'd rather just go with Webster and have Aceves as the longman, once he gets straightened out. I'm not sure how he has looked in AAA so far.

    I'd put Tazawa at closer until Bailey gets back. Uehara can close every now and then as well.

    Mortensen may end up with a bigger role in the next cming weeks. Breslow is a wild card right now.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    I vote for bringing up Aceves tomorrow and Webster too if they can arrange it. Hanrahan is a possible DL right and they should be able to find someone to demote. Maybe an Alex Wilson. They need fresh arms. They can always bring wilson back up later.

    Iglesias was benched during a recent game and not played today. Disciplinary action or is it a possible trade? No rumor at all of a trade though and it shouldn't take 2 days to coordinate usually. He has always been a very solid young man from all indications. Possibly he tried to steal a base on his own and got caught. It could be disciplinary.

    A deal for McCann would be rather cool, especially if Salty was part of it but Andrelton Simmons isn't sitting for Iglesias any time soon. A complete Pipe dream with the longbottom leaf and the best smoke rings Gandalf has to offer. Highly doubtful.

     

    .

     




    why would you want to mess with the chemistry between Salty and the pitchers right now for a guy that doesnt know them and is known more as an offensive catcher. Also fresh off the DL because of a shoulder injury and will need time to get his timing back. Shoulder injuries with catchers arent a good combo. Sorry, but Salty is a much better option.

     



    I said the same about VTek. I didn't care about the reason why pitchers did better with him, even if it was just comfort zones.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It's amazing--some years if we lost two closers at the same time, it would be a panic.  Right now things seem to move forward calmly with Taz.  I think he'll be fine.   

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I wanted Taz to be a starter, but here he is with a new vital role. One big issue is who will now take Taz's set-up role and do well?

    I'm not sure Breslow is ready to step right into the fire.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Dempster with 7 solid innings was a big help last night. Let's hope Breslow settles down and fills in Tazawa's role nicely.

    Dempster's ERA is now 2.93 after 7 starts.

    He's averaged 6.1 IP per start.

    WHIP a very respectable 1.09.

    55 K's in 43 IP surprises me.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Tough night for the offense.

    It was nice to see Jacoby get on base 2 times, but other than Salty's late and near meaningless HR, the rest of the O looked pretty bad. 

    Let's turn it around tonight.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    55 K's in 43 IP surprises me.



    Not sure if they should. His SO/9 is the highest it's ever been since moving to the AL.

    CHC: 7.2

    TEX: 9.1

    (BOS: 11.5)

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    55 K's in 43 IP surprises me.

     



    Not sure if they should. His SO/9 is the highest it's ever been since moving to the AL.

     

    CHC: 7.2

    TEX: 9.1

    (BOS: 11.5)

     




    Hes become a much smarter pitcher with age. Now he's a "crafty veteran" if you will.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    I was just going to suggest we bring up Aceves to be our closer--to get the blood running Boys!--but then I see Boom has already suggested he come up.  I don't really see him as a closer, but maybe after his slap on the wrist he'll want to prove something.  If he can get his head right, I still think he's best in long relief.  I'm all for Webster coming up.

    Moon, I know you don't always go with tradition.  Remember the "co-pitcher" idea you've floated before?  What would you say, just for fun, about the two above?

    I'm pretty excited, the RS are on ESPN today so I can watch them after school here on the West Coast.

    Anyone have a view on C. Schilling's pitching commentery?  He seems pretty knowledgable to me though a little arrogant which may just have been part of his winning formula.  Anyway, I think he would make a good pitching coach if he ever wanted to go in that direction.  Comments?

     

     




    I had enough of Aceves closing last year, thank you.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    4B's, so did I.  I was joking, thus the "to get the blood running."  Interesting that they brought up Webster but not Aceves; maybe he's really deep in the dog house.  We do need another pen guy.  If they're completely done with him which is ok, then I hope we can trade him for a prospect.

    Not to be a boo bird, but I don't think Pedro is a 3rd baseman.  I said this last fall and got pooh poohed here a bit.  I watched him play a lot of third last summer and saw him play live once.  He looked awkward on every opportunity: charging when he should have stayed back, staying back when he should have charged, errors, really awkward throws, and generally just acting like a fish out of water over there.  Awkward on bunts.  I just don't think he can help there unless it's for a day or two.  Anything long term, I'd say bring someone up or go in a different direction.

     
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