A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sox OBP after last night.

    Carp  .432

    Ortiz  .412

    Pedey .405

    Nava   .383

    Gomes .361

    Shane .353

    Ciriaco .353

    D Ross  .341

    Salty    .330

    Naps    .329

    Drew    .326

    Ellsb    .325

    Midds   .228

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Furthermore, theres a lot of talk about lack of depth at 3B, but what about 1B? What happens if Napoli gets hurt? Im of the opinion that WMB bat will come around at the plate, but if he does get sent down AA or AAA, it would be a perfect time to DH, 3B, & Give him some time at 1B. A scenario we've all talked about for months. 

     



    I'm sure they'd hesitate to use Papi at 1B, but he could be risked a bit for a game or two, but my guess is Salty would play 1B and Lava or Vazquez would come up.

     



    I guess i was thinking long term hurt. I didnt specify that though. 

    Carp?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Yes, Carp would be the man, and Papi/Salty the reserves.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    Toronto is coming to Boston.  I wonder if Jack "Not-good-enough-to-be-in-the-Hall-of- Fame,.....don't-believe-me?-Just-ask-Eckersley" Morris will be coming too.   LOL

    BTW, the Yankees with their two former Blue Jays veterans (Wells, Overbay), are in first place.      *shaking my head*   

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from CHUBBIE99. Show CHUBBIE99's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Toronto is coming to Boston.  I wonder if Jack "Not-good-enough-to-be-in-the-Hall-of- Fame,.....don't-believe-me?-Just-ask-Eckersley" Morris will be coming too.   LOL

    BTW, the Yankees with their two former Blue Jays veterans (Wells, Overbay), are in first place.      *shaking my head*   

    [/QUO                         That hurts, that line up looks like a little league team.


     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Yanks finally have a good fielding SS, hence 1st place.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The Yanks finally have a good fielding SS, hence 1st place.



    They have a better team than we do, overall. I believe the Orioles and the Rays do as well, and possibly the Jays. We are more likely to finish in last place than make the playoffs

     
  8. This post has been removed.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jeez, we lose a couple of games and everyone is going into the tank again. It's not that bad guys. Hang in there.

    Got to admit I'm not happy about the #5 slot right now though. To be honest, I'd probably go with Aceves now that Doubront is maxing out at 91 MPH. He is not going to last in the majors as a 91 mph starter. As a 95 mph guy he was average. At 91 he will continue to get shelled. 

    During most of his time in the minors he sat at 91-92. I don't know how he got to 95 in the first place. And he may not be able to get it back.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The Yanks finally have a good fielding SS, hence 1st place.

     



    They have a better team than we do, overall. I believe the Orioles and the Rays do as well, and possibly the Jays. We are more likely to finish in last place than make the playoffs

     



    I predicted 83-85 wins. Some players look better than I expected, but I still don't see 90 wins happening unless an amazing confluence of events happen at once. Injuries are beginning to mount, so I'm not sure that "confluence" is in the cards this year.

    I'm extremely happy the way we have played so far. I'm not saying it can't continue. I will root for a continued 60%+ winning percent, but will be surprised if we do it without some trade to get us over the top.

    Of course the Yanks will not go away. They never do. Most here know my views on the Rays: they will not fade away for years to come. The O's are a wild card and are still finding ways to win. I'm still not convinced on the Jays.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Orioles are our primary competition right now but NY is winning with smoke and mirrors to a degree. It just shows how important pitching is because their lineup was devastated yet they still won some games. As long as most of their top starters stay healthy they have a chance. One of those top guys go down and it's a new world.

    We had the best pen in baseball and then splat...we seemed to implode with the injuries. We need Bailey back badly. Except for the #5 slot the rest of the starters are doing well. The lineup should still produce enough runs to be good. Sometimes you hit the ball hard and it doesn't drop in. To a degree that is happening IMO.

    Middlebrooks needs to start squaring up the ball instead of trying to hit HR all the time. Having a 3rd baseman hitting .190 is not helping at this point in the season. At some point they may want to consider moving Drew to 3rd and bringing up Iggy. 

    Guys lke De La rosa may help befor we are through. He probably gets a shot in the #5 slot within the next month but I'd shut down Doubront to get his arm strength up and bring in Aveves for a while. Webster is better than things showed last start. Doumit is not normally going to go 4-5. Webster got some balls in the wrong places. He needs to get more work in and that sinker will drop more. Throw a lot more curveballs and change ups and he will be fine as long as he can get decent control over the fastball. He will give up some dingers but as long as he doesn't walk a lot he will be ok. He will get better.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The June draft looks very interesting. Reports of some very good talent maybe dropping to us at #7. Possibly even that high school kid from Georgia, Frazier or the top high school pitcher in the country. Baseball America is projecting the below type guys as being potentially our top pick:

    Frazier:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft

    Stewart:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft

    Others they might consider are:

    Ball:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft

    Stanek:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft

    Moran:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    The Orioles are our primary competition right now but NY is winning with smoke and mirrors to a degree. It just shows how important pitching is because their lineup was devastated yet they still won some games. As long as most of their top starters stay healthy they have a chance. One of those top guys go down and it's a new world.

    We had the best pen in baseball and then splat...we seemed to implode with the injuries. We need Bailey back badly. Except for the #5 slot the rest of the starters are doing well. The lineup should still produce enough runs to be good. Sometimes you hit the ball hard and it doesn't drop in. To a degree that is happening IMO.

    Middlebrooks needs to start squaring up the ball instead of trying to hit HR all the time. Having a 3rd baseman hitting .190 is not helping at this point in the season. At some point they may want to consider moving Drew to 3rd and bringing up Iggy. 

    Guys lke De La rosa may help befor we are through. He probably gets a shot in the #5 slot within the next month but I'd shut down Doubront to get his arm strength up and bring in Aveves for a while. Webster is better than things showed last start. Doumit is not normally going to go 4-5. Webster got some balls in the wrong places. He needs to get more work in and that sinker will drop more. Throw a lot more curveballs and change ups and he will be fine as long as he can get decent control over the fastball. He will give up some dingers but as long as he doesn't walk a lot he will be ok. He will get better.



    I do think we have a better chance at winning 90 games than I thought before this season started, but getting Bailey back is crucial as is staying relatively healthy across the board.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Well, we're coming back to the pack but are we really surprised?  Honestly, I'm not but like you Boom I'm not discouraged.  Actually, for some psychological reason I would rather we drop back and have to scrap for a while rather than lead all year and then flop.  Right now everyone is right, we have to stabilize this #5 slot and  hope Taz can close until Bailey gets back.  Taz could start, but then who do we use for a closer?  I think we can compete with the rest of the AL East if we can keep our pitching steady.  I think Aceves is a resource we aren't using right now.  What business, company, work site, etc. doesn't have an employee who for whatever reason is an under performer; sometimes someone finds the key and turns a negative into a positive.  As a teacher I have to do this with kids all the time, so maybe I'm more open to it happening.  I don't know how much he makes, but if I own the RS, I don't want that money poured down the hopper.  I think I would hire a full time shrink to work with my players and he would be first on the list.  If we can get a couple wins from our starters now, I think we're ok...I admit I don't know anything about pitching but I don't think De La Rosa is more ready that Webster; I wouldn't bring him up.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    De La Rosa has had a little success in the majors already. He is just coming back from TJ surgury or he would probably have been slotted ahead of Webster in the depth chart. Hopefully in another month his control will be back and he can help us some.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Let's hope Lester fills the stopper role tonight. We need to nip this slide in the bud.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We're only about 4 or 5 games away from the 1 quarter mark to the season!

    Some early stat observations:

     

    Bad: Ellsbury's .318 OBP is not even close to cutting it as a lead off man on a challenging team.

    Good: The Nava/Gomes platoon and OF/DH reserve combo is shaping up to be a huge offensive attribute to the team in an area expected by many to be a weakness.

       Nava: .297/.398/.515/.913 & Gomes .211/.361/.368/.729

     

    Bad: Our 5, 6 & 7 starting pitchers in 10 starts (IP H   ER  BB  K):

       Doubront  27.0  32  17  14  31

       Aceves     13.1  20   12  10   9

       Webster   7.2    11   11   4    7 

       Total:       48   63   40   28  47  ERA 7.50  WHIP  1.689

    Good: The bench has done exceptionally well:

       Carp 1.221 in 35 ABs, Iggy 1.026 OPS in 20 ABs, Ross .856 OPS in 41 ABs, Nava/Gomes (see above).

     

    Bad: Middlebrooks and his slow slow start- worsened by looking at the game logs and seeing he did almost all of his damage is 2 games. (.203/.237/.495/.732)

    Good: Victorino and his .375 OBP and fine fielding in RF.

     

    Bad: Pedey's loss of power (.395 SLG% and just 8 XBHs)

    Good: Pedey and his .420 OBP

     

    Bad: Drew's slow return (.244), but heating up now.

    Good: Papi's hot return (1.011 OPS)

     

    Bad: Injuries to Bailey, Breslow, Hanrahan and others.

    Good: Buch and Lester 11-0 (13-2 in their 15 starts)

     

    Bad: WHIP's above 1.445: Doubront, Webster, Aceves, Wislon, Miller, Breslow, Hanrahan, Wright, Bard

    Good: (Shockingly good) Bailey, Uehara, and Miller: 37 IP/58K (14.2 K/9)

     

    Bad: Napoli's .318 OBP.

    Good: Napoli's 32 RBIs.

     

    Bad: Salty's 3PB & 12 WP in just 203 innings (6 & 23 in 852 in '12)

    Good: Salty's .337 OBP & .832 OPS

     

    There is more, but these are some that jump out at me.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from CHUBBIE99. Show CHUBBIE99's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    We're only about 4 or 5 games away from the 1 quarter mark to the season!

    Some early stat observations:

     

    Bad: Ellsbury's .318 OBP is not even close to cutting it as a lead off man on a challenging team.

    Good: The Nava/Gomes platoon and OF/DH reserve combo is shaping up to be a huge offensive attribute to the team in an area expected by many to be a weakness.

       Nava: .297/.398/.515/.913 & Gomes .211/.361/.368/.729

     

    Bad: Our 5, 6 & 7 starting pitchers in 10 starts (IP H   ER  BB  K):

       Doubront  27.0  32  17  14  31

       Aceves     13.1  20   12  10   9

       Webster   7.2    11   11   4    7 

       Total:       48   63   40   28  47  ERA 7.50  WHIP  1.689

    Good: The bench has done exceptionally well:

       Carp 1.221 in 35 ABs, Iggy 1.026 OPS in 20 ABs, Ross .856 OPS in 41 ABs, Nava/Gomes (see above).

     

    Bad: Middlebrooks and his slow slow start- worsened by looking at the game logs and seeing he did almost all of his damage is 2 games. (.203/.237/.495/.732)

    Good: Victorino and his .375 OBP and fine fielding in RF.

     

    Bad: Pedey's loss of power (.395 SLG% and just 8 XBHs)

    Good: Pedey and his .420 OBP

     

    Bad: Drew's slow return (.244), but heating up now.

    Good: Papi's hot return (1.011 OPS)

     

    Bad: Injuries to Bailey, Breslow, Hanrahan and others.

    Good: Buch and Lester 11-0 (13-2 in their 15 starts)

     

    Bad: WHIP's above 1.445: Doubront, Webster, Aceves, Wislon, Miller, Breslow, Hanrahan, Wright, Bard

    Good: (Shockingly good) Bailey, Uehara, and Miller: 37 IP/58K (14.2 K/9)

     

    Bad: Napoli's .318 OBP.

    Good: Napoli's 32 RBIs.

     

    Bad: Salty's 3PB & 12 WP in just 203 innings (6 & 23 in 852 in '12)

    Good: Salty's .337 OBP & .832 OPS

     

    There is more, but these are some that jump out at me.


                      Thanks for the stats moon.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Some slugging from a select few:

    Carp  .800

    Papi  .634

    Ross  .537

    Nava .515

    Naps .514

    Salty .495

     

    Team catching SLG% is over .500 (3rd in MLB).

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    De La Rosa has had a little success in the majors already. He is just coming back from TJ surgury or he would probably have been slotted ahead of Webster in the depth chart. Hopefully in another month his control will be back and he can help us some.




    DLR is also on a strict innings limit. Webster I believe is not.

     
  22. This post has been removed.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Cechinni is destroying Carolina league pitching. No one is even close to him in average, OBP and OPS.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...



    Good point. I'm sure there are more goods and bads that I missed.

    How about more fielding notes:

    Sox are 3rd in MLB in UZR/150 despite being 29th in 3B and 25th in catching UZR/150.

    RF: 1st by a landslide (surprising, since Shane missed some time)

    CF: 4th (Not a big surprise)

    SS: 7th (good surprise, but we'd be first if Ciricao's numbers were not included)

    1B: 10th (good surprise)

    2B: 11th (bad surprise)

    LF: 17th

    C: 25th

    3b: 29th

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Cechinni is destroying Carolina league pitching. No one is even close to him in average, OBP and OPS.

     



    He has been my "sleeper" prospect. Yes, he still needs to prove it at AA to be considered a real prospect, but add his speed to the numbers and he's looking like a gem.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share