A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    I dont think we had a realistic chance at Sanchez. He turned down a larger offer to stay in Detroit because he felt they gave him the best opportunity to win, like Hunter did.

     



    That's not exactly what happened.  Sanchez originally appeared to have a deal with the Tigers for 5 years, $75 million.  Then the Cubs jumped in and offered him $77.5 million for 5 years, and there were some premature stories that the Cubs had a deal with him.  But the Tigers bumped their offer to $80 million and Sanchez agreed to it.  So in effect he used the Cubs to get an extra $5 million out of the Tigers.

     




    Gotcha..Thank Hxf

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In concept there was some merit to Moon's approach IMO, but we were limited in our options in last year's FA class and we wanted to hold onto what apparently they thought was a talented farm, and they may have been right about that. And they wanted their picks in this year's draft, which to a degree they would have lost if they went after guys like Sanchez and Kuroda ( my targets ).

    Kuroda has been a rock for years and he could maybe have been had to an agressive short term deal. It would have hurt our biggest rival badly also. Even if he cost us $18 - $20 mil per year, we should have gone after him except for that pesky #7 pick....but consider where this team would be right now if he were our #3 starter.

    Strategically in a way they actually did a variant of moon's approach. Lots of short term deals which enabled them to keep both their prospects and their picks in this year's draft. Moon wanted to be more agressive in that approach and let go of some vets for even more of a reboot ( my interpretation of his proposal ) but to me, the FO had huge financial considerations in protecting the franchise. Fandom can be a fickle thing. They had to keep the turnstiles moving. It was a prudent decision not to write the year off competitively.

    I have got a lot of things right the past couple years but as with any of us got some things very wrong. It happens to those of us who man up to the facts, including Moon who is at least as stand up and honest as anyone here. I didn't like bringing back Ortiz for the last 2 years really because I'm not confident he is PED free and suspected he could tank at any time. But so far, he has been excellent if a little injury prone recently. Still a solid value. I was clearly wrong.

    I have been wrong to a degree recently on Salty but overall, would still have traded him as part of a Moon type reboot. He is signed short term only and I was confident Lavarnway would come back strong and it appears to me at least that he still will. He had some solid AB in the game the other day with 2 liners to RF and appears to have cut down on his swing and will get better results at the mlb level going forward. Eventually the pop may even come back but he's no longer an easy out at the mlb level...IMO. I'd still trade Salty in a heartbeat but I recognize that it is very important to have depth at the catcher position also and Lavarnway does still represent cheap depth. It's getting to the point though where Vasquez will be able to provide that same cheap depth that LAvarnway provides now. I would support trading Salty even more this July.

    I appear to be wrong to a degree on Victorino also but did like the concept of a really strong defender in RF. I didn't think the guy would hit .300 though or be so off the charts great defensively in RF. He makes JD Drew look like a piker out there. Good for him.

    I anticipated that LAckey would come back better than before and I'm still on target with that I think. He will never be like he was with the Angels but he might be close. The guy has gotten some bad luck and he is coming back from TJ. He probably ends up our #3 at some point IMO.

    I think a cautious Pollyanna approach is still the best analysis of this team. They had a chance this past winter, if the starters were better than most expected but there were some indications that they might be, and I think that has played out about right so far. They are better than conventional wisdom anticipated. 

    The recent problems are to a degree bad luck. We seem to be hitting line drives right at people and having the opposite happen recently regarding our pitchers. We don't look championship calibre but it's a lot closer than people thought last winter.We still have a chance. It's all about that starting pitching. It always is.

     




    good analysis Boom.

     

    What were your thoughts on the Drew signing and what are they now?



    I wanted to play Iglesias but again, I think they were right not to count on Iglesias, That is the one thing people here miss. People are going to get hurt. Having a cheap, controllable sub really helps, especially if they are good enough to play at the mlb level. If they gave it to Iglesias I guarantee you he would have been hurt a lot. It is in his history. 

    I thought we would probably rebuild this year to a degree as well, projecting 91 wins or so, so I wanted the youngsters to play some but I think they did the right thing signing Drew, who is going to be fine long term.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    I dont think we had a realistic chance at Sanchez. He turned down a larger offer to stay in Detroit because he felt they gave him the best opportunity to win, like Hunter did.

     



    That's not exactly what happened.  Sanchez originally appeared to have a deal with the Tigers for 5 years, $75 million.  Then the Cubs jumped in and offered him $77.5 million for 5 years, and there were some premature stories that the Cubs had a deal with him.  But the Tigers bumped their offer to $80 million and Sanchez agreed to it.  So in effect he used the Cubs to get an extra $5 million out of the Tigers.

     



    And, maybe Detroit would go to $85M, if Boston offered $83M/5. Maybe not.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    I heard Buster Wedgie reported that your grandmother didn't do the dishes, a few days ago? Is that true?



    You believe anything the press says, as long as they agree with you.

    Rumors of my grandma's demise have been grealy exaggerated.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    And, maybe Detroit would go to $85M, if Boston offered $83M/5. Maybe not.



    Yes, there's no way of knowing if the Red Sox could have landed Sanchez if they had been willing to go to $83 or $85 million.  It appears that they stayed away from him because they thought the price was too steep even at $75 million. 

    And the way Sanchez is pitching, this certainly may turn out to have been a mistake.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    And, maybe Detroit would go to $85M, if Boston offered $83M/5. Maybe not.

     



    Yes, there's no way of knowing if the Red Sox could have landed Sanchez if they had been willing to go to $83 or $85 million.  It appears that they stayed away from him because they thought the price was too steep even at $75 million. 

     

    And the way Sanchez is pitching, this certainly may turn out to have been a mistake.




    I think the deep pockets of the Detroit owners would have made it impossible, considering what the Sox were doing, to let them sign him. IMHO, the Sox could have upped the offer, but not matched what Detroit could or would offer.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    And, maybe Detroit would go to $85M, if Boston offered $83M/5. Maybe not.

     



    Yes, there's no way of knowing if the Red Sox could have landed Sanchez if they had been willing to go to $83 or $85 million.  It appears that they stayed away from him because they thought the price was too steep even at $75 million. 

     

    And the way Sanchez is pitching, this certainly may turn out to have been a mistake.

     




    I think the deep pockets of the Detroit owners would have made it impossible, considering what the Sox were doing, to let them sign him. IMHO, the Sox could have upped the offer, but not matched what Detroit could or would offer.

     



    I'm not sure Detroit matches $96M/6

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    And, maybe Detroit would go to $85M, if Boston offered $83M/5. Maybe not.

     



    Yes, there's no way of knowing if the Red Sox could have landed Sanchez if they had been willing to go to $83 or $85 million.  It appears that they stayed away from him because they thought the price was too steep even at $75 million. 

     

    And the way Sanchez is pitching, this certainly may turn out to have been a mistake.

    The Sox lost interest when it approached 50 million.  They clearly weren't going to sign anyone in this free agent class to a long term/high dollars contract.  They are obviously aware that they were going to likely have to extend Lester & Buchholz fairly soon, and having 3 guys in your rotation making close to 100 million or more is a recipe for disaster.  

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    The Sox lost interest when it approached 50 million.  They clearly weren't going to sign anyone in this free agent class to a long term/high dollars contract.  They are obviously aware that they were going to likely have to extend Lester & Buchholz fairly soon, and having 3 guys in your rotation making close to 100 million or more is a recipe for disaster.  



    I don't know about this.  Buchholz is under control through 2017, so his contract + option years actually expires at the same time as Sanchez's.  And Lackey is off the books after 2014, except for the minimum wage option for 2015.

    The Sox may, of course, be eyeing a big pitching acquisition that we don't know about yet.   

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    The Sox lost interest when it approached 50 million.  They clearly weren't going to sign anyone in this free agent class to a long term/high dollars contract.  They are obviously aware that they were going to likely have to extend Lester & Buchholz fairly soon, and having 3 guys in your rotation making close to 100 million or more is a recipe for disaster.  

     



    I don't know about this.  Buchholz is under control through 2017, so his contract + option years actually expires at the same time as Sanchez's.  And Lackey is off the books after 2014, except for the minimum wage option for 2015.

     

    The Sox may, of course, be eyeing a big pitching acquisition that we don't know about yet.   

     




     

    You are correct...forgot about 2 club options.  Either way, they weren't going to give Sanchez anything close to 100 million, the Ilitch family's Real Estate holdings rival Donald Trump's and the old man is approaching his mid-eighties and desperately wants to win now.  I don't see money  being an issue at all, but this has been beat to death on this board.  He wanted to pitch in Detroit, which isn't insignificant, either...

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    And, maybe Detroit would go to $85M, if Boston offered $83M/5. Maybe not.

     



    Yes, there's no way of knowing if the Red Sox could have landed Sanchez if they had been willing to go to $83 or $85 million.  It appears that they stayed away from him because they thought the price was too steep even at $75 million. 

     

    And the way Sanchez is pitching, this certainly may turn out to have been a mistake.

     

     

    The Sox lost interest when it approached 50 million.  They clearly weren't going to sign anyone in this free agent class to a long term/high dollars contract.  They are obviously aware that they were going to likely have to extend Lester & Buchholz fairly soon, and having 3 guys in your rotation making close to 100 million or more is a recipe for disaster.  



    Obviously you are right, but that doesn't mean some can't disagree with the choice.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    And, maybe Detroit would go to $85M, if Boston offered $83M/5. Maybe not.

     



    Yes, there's no way of knowing if the Red Sox could have landed Sanchez if they had been willing to go to $83 or $85 million.  It appears that they stayed away from him because they thought the price was too steep even at $75 million. 

     

    And the way Sanchez is pitching, this certainly may turn out to have been a mistake.

     

     

    The Sox lost interest when it approached 50 million.  They clearly weren't going to sign anyone in this free agent class to a long term/high dollars contract.  They are obviously aware that they were going to likely have to extend Lester & Buchholz fairly soon, and having 3 guys in your rotation making close to 100 million or more is a recipe for disaster.  

     



    Obviously you are right, but that doesn't mean some can't disagree with the choice.

     

     




     

    You can certainly disagree with the "choice," but we have no idea if he would have even considered playing here, and I think it's a safe bet to say that they aren't going to give a long term deal at big dollars to anyone who would rather be somewhere else, and I agree 100%.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    The Sox lost interest when it approached 50 million.  They clearly weren't going to sign anyone in this free agent class to a long term/high dollars contract.  They are obviously aware that they were going to likely have to extend Lester & Buchholz fairly soon, and having 3 guys in your rotation making close to 100 million or more is a recipe for disaster.  

     



    I don't know about this.  Buchholz is under control through 2017, so his contract + option years actually expires at the same time as Sanchez's.  And Lackey is off the books after 2014, except for the minimum wage option for 2015.

     

    The Sox may, of course, be eyeing a big pitching acquisition that we don't know about yet.   

     




    Or just waiting to see what they have in the minors before locking anyone up long term. Thats what the Dempster signing tells me. Buy time for their own guys. Build the next great Red Sox team and all.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

     

    The Sox lost interest when it approached 50 million.  They clearly weren't going to sign anyone in this free agent class to a long term/high dollars contract.  They are obviously aware that they were going to likely have to extend Lester & Buchholz fairly soon, and having 3 guys in your rotation making close to 100 million or more is a recipe for disaster.  

     



    Obviously you are right, but that doesn't mean some can't disagree with the choice.

     

     




     

    You can certainly disagree with the "choice," but we have no idea if he would have even considered playing here, and I think it's a safe bet to say that they aren't going to give a long term deal at big dollars to anyone who would rather be somewhere else, and I agree 100%.

     

    It is very clear the Sox were not going to make a big splash signing this year. I have never doubted that or tried to argue that point. I may be wrong, but it seems like you keep acting like I disagree with this part of the equation.

    I know they did not want to pay big for anyone, and obviously not Sanchez, or we would have heard at least rumors of an offer. 

    I don't blame them for not signing him, and he wasn't part of my first choice plan either. I just didn't expect them to sign so many players to big salaries and push the big choices to another year. I get the strategy and flexibility that comes with it, but I disagree with the fundemental aspect of playing it half way. It may make business sense in some ways, and I understand that's what it is all about, but from a baseball perspective, I feel we'd have done better to just shoot for 2014-2015 and beyond, or get 2 key big players that would help us now and beyond 2015 (ie Upton & Sanchez), or at least solve one of out biggest needs we've had for 3+ years: solid 3 starter and solid clean-up hitter. Then we'd have only one slot to fill next winter.

    As a side notae, I also said, Ben deserves a chance to show his plan. I wouldn't count last winter as totally his free handed reign. I loved the Dodger trade and am holding off judgement until a more appropriate time. I hope to God I have to apologize for being so critical. So far, some of the moves I did not like have worked out well. I'm hoping I am wrong more often.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    TB vs Bal

    NY vs Tor

    Bos vs MN

     

    Good chance to make some gains.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    TB vs Bal

    NY vs Tor

    Bos vs MN

     

    Good chance to make some gains.




    Toronto has been playing better as of late (4-game W streak) and the O's pitching is in trouble. Good for the Sox, bad for the other division leaders.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Someone's going to lose in those series. I hope the Yanks and TB. (I still rate TB ahead of Baltimore.)

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    TB vs Bal

    NY vs Tor

    Bos vs MN

     

    Good chance to make some gains.

     




    Toronto has been playing better as of late (4-game W streak) and the O's pitching is in trouble. Good for the Sox, bad for the other division leaders.

     



    Unfortunately, Kuroda is up against Buehrle tonight.

    Advantage, Yankees.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Someone's going to lose in those series. I hope the Yanks and TB. (I still rate TB ahead of Baltimore.)




    I believe Price, and the Rays, are worse off than some think. Hes been mediocre, for him, all season and now an arm issue. They have guys to replace him, but they are unprovenat the MLB level. Their lineup as constructed isnt that good IMO. I think Maddon doesnt set it up correctly as he doesnt put his high obp guys in front of guys like Zobrist and Longo. Loney should be batting 2nd, not 6th or 7th. Jennings should be lower until he can get on base more consistently.

    Moore is good, but still has issues. He walks a lot of guys and doesnt go deep into games. hes gone 7+ IP once. Hellickson is good, but not TOTR good IMO. Hes been mediocre so far this year. Hernanzez is a BOTR arm. I like Cobb. He can give up a lot of hits, but has better control overall. Im not sure they can overcome something like Price being out and not being at "Ace" caliber this year without Shields there to give them the innings needed.

    The O's best pitcher will be out the next month with an oblique strain. The rest of their guys are Middle-BOTR starters. Not much to be encouraged about with their rotation.  They have a decent BP, but they are going to be overworked from their starters. Good lineup though that can win some games for them, unlike the Rays who depend on their pitching more.

    Toronto has a beast of a line up and when Dickey, JJ, and Burehle get straight, they should be right in the mix.

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Someone's going to lose in those series. I hope the Yanks and TB. (I still rate TB ahead of Baltimore.)

     




    I believe Price, and the Rays, are worse off than some think. Hes been mediocre, for him, all season and now an arm issue. They have guys to replace him, but they are unprovenat the MLB level. Their lineup as constructed isnt that good IMO. I think Maddon doesnt set it up correctly as he doesnt put his high obp guys in front of guys like Zobrist and Longo. Loney should be batting 2nd, not 6th or 7th. Jennings should be lower until he can get on base more consistently.

     

    Moore is good, but still has issues. He walks a lot of guys and doesnt go deep into games. hes gone 7+ IP once. Hellickson is good, but not TOTR good IMO. Hes been mediocre so far this year. Hernanzez is a BOTR arm. I like Cobb. He can give up a lot of hits, but has better control overall. Im not sure they can overcome something like Price being out and not being at "Ace" caliber this year without Shields there to give them the innings needed.

    The O's best pitcher will be out the next month with an oblique strain. The rest of their guys are Middle-BOTR starters. Not much to be encouraged about with their rotation.  They have a decent BP, but they are going to be overworked from their starters. Good lineup though that can win some games for them, unlike the Rays who depend on their pitching more.

    Toronto has a beast of a line up and when Dickey, JJ, and Burehle get straight, they should be right in the mix.

     

     



    You make some good points, but I could make some similar points about Baltimore and Toronto's staff.

    TBR: Price is certainly the key, but it is Cobb who took Shields' slot in the rotation. He's done very well.

    Here's the Rays rotation without Price:

    Moore:  7-0  2.44  1.125

    Cobb:    4-2  2.89   1.170

    Hellick: 1-2  5.25  1.271

    Hernandez: 2-4  4.41  1.242

     

    Their pen has been shaky after years of "overachieving".

     

    Their offense is as bad as always.

    Out of their top 9 PA guys, only 2 are over .785 (Longoria/Loney)

    4 are below .719. The 10th guy is at .606, 11th at .501, and 12th at .679.

    If Zobrist comes around and Escobar snaps out of his .598 funk, they may be in this to the end.

     

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I read a blip that Iggy was beched for not hustling.

    If so, I'm not impressed.

    Anyone have more data?

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    TB vs Bal

    NY vs Tor

    Bos vs MN

     

    Good chance to make some gains.

     




    Toronto has been playing better as of late (4-game W streak) and the O's pitching is in trouble. Good for the Sox, bad for the other division leaders.

     

     



    Unfortunately, Kuroda is up against Buehrle tonight.

     

    Advantage, Yankees.




    hey man, dont rain on my parade with factual information Wink

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Someone's going to lose in those series. I hope the Yanks and TB. (I still rate TB ahead of Baltimore.)

     




    I believe Price, and the Rays, are worse off than some think. Hes been mediocre, for him, all season and now an arm issue. They have guys to replace him, but they are unprovenat the MLB level. Their lineup as constructed isnt that good IMO. I think Maddon doesnt set it up correctly as he doesnt put his high obp guys in front of guys like Zobrist and Longo. Loney should be batting 2nd, not 6th or 7th. Jennings should be lower until he can get on base more consistently.

     

    Moore is good, but still has issues. He walks a lot of guys and doesnt go deep into games. hes gone 7+ IP once. Hellickson is good, but not TOTR good IMO. Hes been mediocre so far this year. Hernanzez is a BOTR arm. I like Cobb. He can give up a lot of hits, but has better control overall. Im not sure they can overcome something like Price being out and not being at "Ace" caliber this year without Shields there to give them the innings needed.

    The O's best pitcher will be out the next month with an oblique strain. The rest of their guys are Middle-BOTR starters. Not much to be encouraged about with their rotation.  They have a decent BP, but they are going to be overworked from their starters. Good lineup though that can win some games for them, unlike the Rays who depend on their pitching more.

    Toronto has a beast of a line up and when Dickey, JJ, and Burehle get straight, they should be right in the mix.

     

     

     



    You make some good points, but I could make some similar points about Baltimore and Toronto's staff.

     

    TBR: Price is certainly the key, but it is Cobb who took Shields' slot in the rotation. He's done very well.

    Here's the Rays rotation without Price:

    Moore:  7-0  2.44  1.125

    Cobb:    4-2  2.89   1.170

    Hellick: 1-2  5.25  1.271

    Hernandez: 2-4  4.41  1.242

     

    Their pen has been shaky after years of "overachieving".

     

    Their offense is as bad as always.

    Out of their top 9 PA guys, only 2 are over .785 (Longoria/Loney)

    4 are below .719. The 10th guy is at .606, 11th at .501, and 12th at .679.

    If Zobrist comes around and Escobar snaps out of his .598 funk, they may be in this to the end.

     

     




    The wildcard is Moore. Hes good, no doubt, but If he cant go more than 5-6IP your going to get into that questionable BP as much as we do with Doubie or Lackey. Cobb seems steady and the other 2 are just Ok so far this year. Nothing that scares me at all.

    Escobar is a career 663 OPS SS so I dont expect too much more from him. Zobrist should recover.

    If Price is down for any period of time and the other starter dont step up, I dont think Tampa will be a threat to anyone.

     

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