A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I loved last year's draft, and nothing has made me change my mind, so far.

     

     



    All I've to say on this one is WOW. On what do you guys base this opinion? Give me any data at all beyond a mediocre performance from Marrerro which gives you any indication this was a good draft. It was universally regarded as the worst draft class in many years and our picks so far have been almost universlly bad. Kraus has done well but he is 22 years old in Greenville. They are taking things slow with Buttrey and Calahan ( who was extremely young if I remember correctly) so let's hope like crazy they make it because there is zero indication that anyone else will be a significant mlb level player. An abberation like Lowrie or Middlebrooks could happen but those are relatively rare. Why are we on different sides of this one Moon? The data is clear.

    Boom, never in my life have I made definitive judgements about a player based on a small sample size. These guys all have tiny sample sizes.

    I'm surprised that you are surprised at my opinion. I have not judged these guys yet. I loved the draft at the time, and no tiny sample size is going to change that opinion. Even if they all go the full season and don't put up great numbers, it won't change my opinion a whole lot... a little bit, but not alot, especially if they are trending upwards as the season ends.

    Although I remember people calling last year's draft class weak, I did remember them saying it was deeper than normal in talent, and we had so many picks, I'm still banking on 2-3 players making a significant impact at some point in the bigs.

    I don't have "data" to back up my position, but your "data" is miniscule and near worthless when you consider these are the first 15-35 innings these guys have pitched in profesional baseball. Just because selected and tiny sample size data looks "clear" doesn't mean these guys should be labelled as failures so soon in their careers. There is such a long list of great players that started slower than this and longer than this.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    At no point did I say a definitive judgement had been made regarding our prospects down in Greenville other than right now they look horrible and they do look horrible according to the data. So far they don't look like a good group. So far it looks like a very long season in Greenville. No one deserves a promotion or looks to be getting one at any time soon. Consistently terrible data and no indication it's changing any time soon. 

    I've said several times it is still possible some of these guys make it but from all indications right now, it looks like one of the worst drafts in baseball. Because it does. 

    I'm a Pollyanna generally but I can't put lipstick on that pig.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iglesias played 3rd today and made an error but I think it's a good move. At this point I can see him as a defensive replacement. A utility guy until hopefully his stick comes around. He's always been injury prone. Maybe that is as good a roll from him as we are going to get. I haven't given up but we need to move in that direction for now IMO.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    At no point did I say a definitive judgement had been made regarding our prospects down in Greenville other than right now they look horrible and they do look horrible according to the data. So far they don't look like a good group. So far it looks like a very long season in Greenville. No one deserves a promotion or looks to be getting one at any time soon. Consistently terrible data and no indication it's changing any time soon. 

    I've said several times it is still possible some of these guys make it but from all indications right now, it looks like one of the worst drafts in baseball. Because it does. 

    I'm a Pollyanna generally but I can't put lipstick on that pig.



    We'll have to agree to disagree on this, boom. Yes, they have done "horrible" for a tiny snapshot of their baseball careers. These snapshots should not effect our judgements of them wether good or bad, at least until they get 100+ IP or a couple seasons under their belts. Even then, things can change to the good or bad easily enough. It's not about being a Pollyanna or a Negative Ninny, it's about being neither and just remaining level-headed and waiting for a significant sample size before passing judgement.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Iglesias played 3rd today and made an error but I think it's a good move. At this point I can see him as a defensive replacement. A utility guy until hopefully his stick comes around. He's always been injury prone. Maybe that is as good a roll from him as we are going to get. I haven't given up but we need to move in that direction for now IMO.



    It doesn't make sense to me to move the best fielding SS out team has had in years to another position. I get that moving Drew there may be a hard thing to do, if Middlebrooks gets hurt or goes into another funk, but I just shudder at the idea of Iggy at 3B.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Guys, I concur that Iggy at 3rd is not a good deal.  I think Moon said last year (correct me Moon if I'm wrong) that if we don't plan on Iggy in the future, then trade him, and that's what I think.  I believe there are NL teams out there right now that would want him.

    Yeah, I know we're not flush on starters, but I was thinking of Morales who evidently is supposed to be simmering and waiting to jump into the fire if anyone falters.  But if a team were desperate--not saying the Giants are--and we could get something good for him...we still have Webster or maybe Taz if we need a starter.  I think I would do it if we could get back a young power arm, first baseman, outfielder 1/2/3 years away...Actually, I think I would put Iggy and Morales together anytime for a better chance at the above because honestly I don't think the RS really want a defense first SS and we've got someone behind him who's supposed to be good, why not? 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    PS, this deal above is only hypothetical of course.  But if anyone says , "Well, we really need Morales in case something happens..." then I would respond, (And I remain Polly...) are we really a WS team this year or even a deep-in-the-playoffs team?  If not, then we need to make some trades like this.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Guys, I concur that Iggy at 3rd is not a good deal.  I think Moon said last year (correct me Moon if I'm wrong) that if we don't plan on Iggy in the future, then trade him, and that's what I think.  I believe there are NL teams out there right now that would want him.

    Yeah, I know we're not flush on starters, but I was thinking of Morales who evidently is supposed to be simmering and waiting to jump into the fire if anyone falters.  But if a team were desperate--not saying the Giants are--and we could get something good for him...we still have Webster or maybe Taz if we need a starter.  I think I would do it if we could get back a young power arm, first baseman, outfielder 1/2/3 years away...Actually, I think I would put Iggy and Morales together anytime for a better chance at the above because honestly I don't think the RS really want a defense first SS and we've got someone behind him who's supposed to be good, why not? 



    I want Iggy to be our SS, but yes, as I have said for over 2 years now, if we are not ever going to play him, we should trade him. He still has value that the team does not seem to view as value.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iggy is gone if he is not in the majors next year. They originally signed him to a mlb contract. They can't keep sending him down forever. He is probably trade bait as we speak but it makes sense to bring him up now in whatever role we can. Maybe he will prove useful. He's probably as good as Ciriaco anyway. Why not see what we have? He could be a solid defensive replacement. Why not take Pedroia out in blow up games, and give Iglesias some AB and defensive development? The same with Middlebrooks and Drew as they both have been playing hurt. And all of us (just about ) would like to see Iglesias at SS defensively. He should be off the charts at both 3rd and 2nd after even just a few weeks of work. His range and arm are excellent.

    I'd play Iglesias in utility infield mode for 2-3 weeks and then bring him up. Just maybe he can still step in at SS next year because Drew is on a one year deal and we do not want to have to re sign him. I don't know what the current FA shortstop market looks like next winter but it is better to still go even with Iglesias if Bogaerts is roughly a year away. Drew looks like a placeholder to me still.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I still don't see Bogaerts ending up as our SS. He'll have to improve his fielding for me to be content with that. Since Napoli will not likely be here after this year, my idea of moving Middlebrooks or Boagerts to 1B might be the best plan for 2015 anyways.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Iggy is gone if he is not in the majors next year. They originally signed him to a mlb contract. They can't keep sending him down forever. He is probably trade bait as we speak but it makes sense to bring him up now in whatever role we can. Maybe he will prove useful. He's probably as good as Ciriaco anyway. Why not see what we have? He could be a solid defensive replacement. Why not take Pedroia out in blow up games, and give Iglesias some AB and defensive development? The same with Middlebrooks and Drew as they both have been playing hurt. And all of us (just about ) would like to see Iglesias at SS defensively. He should be off the charts at both 3rd and 2nd after even just a few weeks of work. His range and arm are excellent.

    I'd play Iglesias in utility infield mode for 2-3 weeks and then bring him up. Just maybe he can still step in at SS next year because Drew is on a one year deal and we do not want to have to re sign him. I don't know what the current FA shortstop market looks like next winter but it is better to still go even with Iglesias if Bogaerts is roughly a year away. Drew looks like a placeholder to me still.




    we have Iggy until 2019 if we want Boom...

    2010 20 Boston Red Sox $2,060,000     2011 21 Boston Red Sox $2,060,000     2012 22 Boston Red Sox $2,060,000 contracts   2013 23 Boston Red Sox $2,060,000     2013 Status Pre-Arb Eligible, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2016, Earliest Free Agent: 2019
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.




    I agree with that too. Just saying its not a must that we get rid of him becausehis 4yr deal is up. He still has pre arb, arb, then hes a FA. He could be a very valuable piece with that much control.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.

     




    I agree with that too. Just saying its not a must that we get rid of him becausehis 4yr deal is up. He still has pre arb, arb, then hes a FA. He could be a very valuable piece with that much control.

     



    That's what I said when we went with Aviles last year. Play Iggy or trade him. We should have traded him then. I'm not sure his stock has gone up any since then. A year less team control. Now, the attitude issue to ponder.

    I don't see Iggy ever hitting well enough to make Ben confident enough to hand him the job, so I say trade him. Maybe a package deal of 2 or 3 for one would help solve our roster limit issues as well. Trade Iggy, Aceves, and Morales for a better pitcher under team control for 3+ years. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.

     




    I agree with that too. Just saying its not a must that we get rid of him becausehis 4yr deal is up. He still has pre arb, arb, then hes a FA. He could be a very valuable piece with that much control.

     

     



    That's what I said when we went with Aviles last year. Play Iggy or trade him. We should have traded him then. I'm not sure his stock has gone up any since then. A year less team control. Now, the attitude issue to ponder.

     

    I don't see Iggy ever hitting well enough to make Ben confident enough to hand him the job, so I say trade him. Maybe a package deal of 2 or 3 for one would help solve our roster limit issues as well. Trade Iggy, Aceves, and Morales for a better pitcher under team control for 3+ years. 




    I think if a team plans on using him in MLB they wont care about the little attitude issues since it was about playing in MLB. Hes basically been the same player so his value really hasnt gone either way IMO. Hes still under control for 6 years, so realistically he has as many years as any other prospect starts with. 2014-2016 pre arb. League minimum. 2017-2019 arb eligible. 6 years is all any prospect gets.

    He will be a very valuable piece to any team that values total defense at SS and not worried about waiting for the bat to get better, even if its a .230-240BA and a .300 OBP.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.

     




    I agree with that too. Just saying its not a must that we get rid of him becausehis 4yr deal is up. He still has pre arb, arb, then hes a FA. He could be a very valuable piece with that much control.

     

     



    That's what I said when we went with Aviles last year. Play Iggy or trade him. We should have traded him then. I'm not sure his stock has gone up any since then. A year less team control. Now, the attitude issue to ponder.

     

    I don't see Iggy ever hitting well enough to make Ben confident enough to hand him the job, so I say trade him. Maybe a package deal of 2 or 3 for one would help solve our roster limit issues as well. Trade Iggy, Aceves, and Morales for a better pitcher under team control for 3+ years. 

     




    I think if a team plans on using him in MLB they wont care about the little attitude issues since it was about playing in MLB. Hes basically been the same player so his value really hasnt gone either way IMO. Hes still under control for 6 years, so realistically he has as many years as any other prospect starts with. 2014-2016 pre arb. League minimum. 2017-2019 arb eligible. 6 years is all any prospect gets.

     

    He will be a very valuable piece to any team that values total defense at SS and not worried about waiting for the bat to get better, even if its a .230-240BA and a .300 OBP.



    Exactly. Some other team must value him more than Ben. He should be traded, since Ben is not going to start him. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.

     




    I agree with that too. Just saying its not a must that we get rid of him becausehis 4yr deal is up. He still has pre arb, arb, then hes a FA. He could be a very valuable piece with that much control.

     

     



    That's what I said when we went with Aviles last year. Play Iggy or trade him. We should have traded him then. I'm not sure his stock has gone up any since then. A year less team control. Now, the attitude issue to ponder.

     

    I don't see Iggy ever hitting well enough to make Ben confident enough to hand him the job, so I say trade him. Maybe a package deal of 2 or 3 for one would help solve our roster limit issues as well. Trade Iggy, Aceves, and Morales for a better pitcher under team control for 3+ years. 

     




    I think if a team plans on using him in MLB they wont care about the little attitude issues since it was about playing in MLB. Hes basically been the same player so his value really hasnt gone either way IMO. Hes still under control for 6 years, so realistically he has as many years as any other prospect starts with. 2014-2016 pre arb. League minimum. 2017-2019 arb eligible. 6 years is all any prospect gets.

     

    He will be a very valuable piece to any team that values total defense at SS and not worried about waiting for the bat to get better, even if its a .230-240BA and a .300 OBP.

     



    Exactly. Some other team must value him more than Ben. He should be traded, since Ben is not going to start him. 

     




    Well, with BC playing him at 3b and supposed to give him some play at 2b too, it will show other teams that hes more versitle than just being a SS. He can make it to MLB quicker that way also.

    I agree that if they dont see him as their SS then they need to package him up and ship him out for something they feel they can use.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.

     




    I agree with that too. Just saying its not a must that we get rid of him becausehis 4yr deal is up. He still has pre arb, arb, then hes a FA. He could be a very valuable piece with that much control.

     



    I heard it on the most recent soxprospects podcast if I remember correctly. I'd rather not cite the source because I may do it incorrectly but I believe it was from one of their most credible staffers in the last podcast. Iglesias has to be in mlb next year or we lose him. I heard it just last night.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    If Iglesias has to be in mlb next year, and they want to develop his value before trading him, bringing him up now while Ciriaco is not producing makes some sense. A lot of time a player might be roughly equivalent and they just go with the guy who 1) has potential added value or 2) costs them less. I think option 1 applies in this instance.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.

     




    I agree with that too. Just saying its not a must that we get rid of him becausehis 4yr deal is up. He still has pre arb, arb, then hes a FA. He could be a very valuable piece with that much control.

     

     



    I heard it on the most recent soxprospects podcast if I remember correctly. I'd rather not cite the source because I may do it incorrectly but I believe it was from one of their most credible staffers in the last podcast. Iglesias has to be in mlb next year or we lose him. I heard it just last night.

     

     




    Yes it is true. I just looked it up and he does have to be on the 25-man next year. I thought it was the 40-man, but obviously I was wrong about that.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iglesias is still very young. Not defending a bad attitude by any player , but it is at least understandable due to his youth and disappointment at being sent down when he was playing so well.  He did not have a reputation as a problem guy.  Not time to give up on him. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    Iglesias is still very young. Not defending a bad attitude by any player , but it is at least understandable due to his youth and disappointment at being sent down when he was playing so well.  He did not have a reputation as a problem guy.  Not time to give up on him. 




    He had no business getting mad when he already knew the job was Drews. I understand being overall frustrated, but the kid cant hit. a .220BA with a sub 300 OBP with minimal power in AAA is going to be worse in MLB.

    Theyre playing him at 3b and 2b now and I imagine that will at least land him a spot as a UI this year for either a trade or to at least prove he can hit MLB pitching. Ciriaco needs to go.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    Iglesias is still very young. Not defending a bad attitude by any player , but it is at least understandable due to his youth and disappointment at being sent down when he was playing so well.  He did not have a reputation as a problem guy.  Not time to give up on him. 

     




    He had no business getting mad when he already knew the job was Drews. I understand being overall frustrated, but the kid cant hit. a .220BA with a sub 300 OBP with minimal power in AAA is going to be worse in MLB.

     

    Theyre playing him at 3b and 2b now and I imagine that will at least land him a spot as a UI this year for either a trade or to at least prove he can hit MLB pitching. Ciriaco needs to go.



    1) The SS position should not be primarily about hitting.

    2) He has a .245 AAA BA in over 900 PAs not .220.

    3) While it is not common for players to do better in MLB than the minors, we don't have to look any further than Ciriaco:

        AAA   .265/.281 (1080 PAs)

    minors  .272/.299 (3502 PAs)

        MLB   .286/.315 (459 PAs)

       

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    Iglesias is still very young. Not defending a bad attitude by any player , but it is at least understandable due to his youth and disappointment at being sent down when he was playing so well.  He did not have a reputation as a problem guy.  Not time to give up on him. 

     




    He had no business getting mad when he already knew the job was Drews. I understand being overall frustrated, but the kid cant hit. a .220BA with a sub 300 OBP with minimal power in AAA is going to be worse in MLB.

     

    Theyre playing him at 3b and 2b now and I imagine that will at least land him a spot as a UI this year for either a trade or to at least prove he can hit MLB pitching. Ciriaco needs to go.

     



    1) The SS position should not be primarily about hitting.

     

    2) He has a .245 AAA BA in over 900 PAs not .220.

    3) While it is not common for players to do better in MLB than the minors, we don't have to look any further than Ciriaco:

        AAA   .265/.281 (1080 PAs)

    minors  .272/.299 (3502 PAs)

        MLB   .286/.315 (459 PAs)

       

     

     




    I guess he has the rest of the year to prove guys like me wrong. I hope he does.

    Plus I was talking about his stats this year, which last time I looked a couple days ago were at .205/.262/.330 in 31 games for Pawtucket.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    Iglesias is still very young. Not defending a bad attitude by any player , but it is at least understandable due to his youth and disappointment at being sent down when he was playing so well.  He did not have a reputation as a problem guy.  Not time to give up on him. 

     




    He had no business getting mad when he already knew the job was Drews. I understand being overall frustrated, but the kid cant hit. a .220BA with a sub 300 OBP with minimal power in AAA is going to be worse in MLB.

     

    Theyre playing him at 3b and 2b now and I imagine that will at least land him a spot as a UI this year for either a trade or to at least prove he can hit MLB pitching. Ciriaco needs to go.

     



    1) The SS position should not be primarily about hitting.

     

    2) He has a .245 AAA BA in over 900 PAs not .220.

    3) While it is not common for players to do better in MLB than the minors, we don't have to look any further than Ciriaco:

        AAA   .265/.281 (1080 PAs)

    minors  .272/.299 (3502 PAs)

        MLB   .286/.315 (459 PAs)

       

     

     




    I guess he has the rest of the year to prove guys like me wrong. I hope he does.

    Plus I was talking about his stats this year, which last time I looked a couple days ago were at .205/.262/.330 in 31 games for Pawtucket.

     



    OK, but to me, it's not about offense with the short stop. Yes, it can make a difference, but what a SS does out on the field is so much more influential than getting on base 30-40 more times over a full season.

     

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