Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 5/23/2013 4:14 AM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
Crit...You know I'm a Proud Pollyanna but Greenville is not a hitter's park and look at our hitters on that team. They may be even worse! I think we have a great farm but the best prospects ain't in Greenville! I'm not on a ledge. I'm just stating the obvious. Again, just look at the data. These are mainly college guys Crit. They should be mopping the floor in Greenville.
The "data" is too small to even see.
I thought at first that their approach last year of taking what appeared to be safe college arms was good but it has not worked out so far. They should go back to rolling the dice with the high upside guys. Prospects like Frazier, Moran, Shipley and Stewart this year. They will miss completely on most of them but a few will rise to the top and we will have something.
This is showing that you have made a definitive judgement based on tiny sample sizes, and are saying we should change our philosophy based on these tiny sample sizes so far.
They do have the international signing of Montas which might bear fruit. Callahan is very young and might pan out as well as Buttrey but neither is playing yet this year. Mookie Betts has done very well lately. It's just that out of the top 6 picks who are actually playing so far, all of them have looked real bad. Johnson hasn't been off the charts bad but still not good for a 1st round college pitcher in Greenville. It is a small sample size and we shouldn't give up but so far it's just ugly Crit. And we might as well admit it. And change our approach this year.
Nobody is making any changes based on 15-35 inning sample sizes out of the gait.
We are 1/4 into the season now and the entire draft class so far has had bad results. Kraus has decent results but he is 22 years old in low A and is a reliever. The sample size is significant when it's the entire draft class. We used to go safe with our picks and got guys like Abe Alvarez. We just effectively got 4-5 more Abe Alvarez type guys out of our top picks. We don't want to go there again I'm pretty sure.
The draft world has changed. The overslot signings are not going to walk in that door with regularity any more. Our drafts just are not going to be as strong as they were simply because our money advantages have been largely negated. Access to good young talent is now at a huge premium. We don't see trades being made for prospects as much any more as orgs are holding on to their guys with both fists. That is why the Dodgers trade was yet again so huge for us. Hopefully it is the foundation of our re tooling.
We are all Tampa Bays now. And the sooner we see that the better. I think Cherington is with the program because look at his moves. They have held on to almost all of their real prospects. We need more Buchholz level players. Guys we develop into all stars. Guys who were largely unheard of in the draft but had the tools to become great.
We need high upside guys even if 90% of them fail. It turns out that our best shots from 2012 are the high upside HS guys. I can't wait for June 6th. This year's draft should be better.