A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. This post has been removed.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    ERA+ is a measuer of how much better the league average pitches than the pitcher who  is being measured. 

    ERA- is a park adjusted measure of how much better that pitcher is against the field. 

    ERA+ doesn't really make sense to me. 

    It's much easier to wrap your head around how one person fares against the average, than how well the average fairs compared to the pitcher. 



    Somebody better clarify the ERA+ and ERA- difference.

    It seems to me that ERA+ is by far the more widely used.  As I understand it, ERA+ is park-adjusted.  Jake Peavy's career ERA+ of 115 indicates that he has been 15% better than average.   

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    I await Part IV before I lend my usual in-depth contributions.......



    Reason enough to make Part III the last segment.

    Wink

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to zbellino's comment:



    Sorry I'm trying to be clear. ERA+ isn't more widely used, it's the Baseball Reference stat. ERA- is the fangraphs stat.



    Fair enough.  When I said more widely used, I was thinking of columnists like Chad Finn, who uses stats a lot.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Either way, both ERA- and ERA+ are better than ERA alone, but also should not be the only stats used to judge a pitcher's performance and skillset.

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Before yesterday's game, there were 87 pitchers in MLB with over 250 IP since 2012.

    Here are how our starters rank:

    WAR

    24  Peavy      5.6

    27  Lester      5.4

    41  Doubront 4.4

    42  Buchholz  4.4

    51  Dempster 3.9

     

    ERA-

    24  Peavy  85

    26  Buchh  86

    35  Demp   91

    60  Doub   103

    76  Lester 110

     

    WHIP

    10  Peavy  1.11

    40  Buch    1.23

    63  Demp   1.32

    73  Lest     1.38

    82  Doub   1.43

     

    xFIP

    40  Lester      3.81

    45  Doubront 3.85

    49  Peavy      3.91

    56  Dempster 4.02

    58  Buchholz  4.05

     

    Using just these numbers, one could argue that Peavy is our best SP.

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Go back to include Peavy's poor 2011 season and...

    out of 152 pitchers with 250+ IP (avg 5 per team):

    WAR

    25 Lester  8.9

    26 Peavy  8.8

    46 Demp  6.5

    59 Buchh  5.5

    77 Doub   4.3

    99 Lack    3.8

    ERA-

    27 Buchh  85

    46 Peavy  93

    61 Lester 100

    91 Demp  104

    94 Doub   105

    133 Lack  118

     

    WHIP

    20 Peavy  1.14

    55 Buchh  1.25

    99 Lester  1.33

    116 Demp 1.37

    132 Lack   1.44

    135 Doub  1.45

     

    Updated after last night (2012-2013):

    Peavy:

    22 in WAR at 5.8

    24 in ERA- at 85

    9 in WHIP at 1.10

     

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Well, here are Peavy's AL East career numbers:

    Boston:  1-2  3.00  1.000

    Balt:        2-0  2.77  0.923

    NYY:        0-4  3.96  1.200

    TBR:        3-1  4.99  1.337

    Tor:         2-0  3.60  1.086

    sample sizes between 13 and 35 IP

     

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    There are so many stats and variations of them out there that it is not too hard to find one to suit your purpose. We forget to take into account the human factor.  This is not like the probabilities of rolling the dice. I think we are trying to over analyze things. In baseball , things change. They do not necessarily follow a predictable pattern. Often , recent performance is more telling than past history. The various new metrics are really just figured by compiling and using different configurations of the traditional stats.  You can twist it any way you want. It still comes down to the basics.

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    There are so many stats and variations of them out there that it is not too hard to find one to suit your purpose. We forget to take into account the human factor.  This is not like the probabilities of rolling the dice. I think we are trying to over analyze things. In baseball , things change. They do not necessarily follow a predictable pattern. Often , recent performance is more telling than past history. The various new metrics are really just figured by compiling and using different configurations of the traditional stats.  You can twist it any way you want. It still comes down to the basics.

    Stabbed by Foulke.


    .
    True. No stat or metric is close to a 100% predictor of what will follow.

    I do think most recent numbers count largely towards guessing future performance, but for pitchers, I rarely value just the last 1-2 starts as being that significant. I like to look at a number of recent sample sizes: past 10 starts or so, past season, past 2 years combined, past 3 years combined, and career numbers, unless the pitcher is old or young. My guess is that combining all of these sample size numbers is a better indicator of what is likely to follow than any one sample size might do alone.

    There are certainly exceptions to the rule, especially if injuries were involved. For example, should Lackey's last 3-4 year sample size be counted as highly as a normal situation? I'd think this year's numbers should be weighted higher than normal to offset his bad numbers from 2011 that were probably injury-related.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    How about Stephen Fife with the Dodgers?

    13 starts since the Bedard trade:

    3-5  2.74 ERA and 1.313 WHIP

     

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    16 of our next 19 on the road starting tonight in Houston (I'll be there).

    After this stretch we play 15 of 27 at home. Total from now? H 18  A 28

    3 v Bal

    3 v CWS

    3 v Det

    4 @ NYY

    3 @ TBR

    3 v Bal

    3 v Tor

    2 @ Col

    3 @ Bal

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    The stretch from Sept 2 to 15th could tell all:

    3 vs Det, 4 @ NYY, 3 @ TBR, and 3 v NYY

    then, we play Baltimore in 6 of our last 14 games.

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The stretch from Sept 2 to 15th could tell all:

    3 vs Det, 4 @ NYY, 3 @ TBR, and 3 v NYY

    then, we play Baltimore in 6 of our last 14 games.

    Sox4ever

     



    I think the team is set up well to finish an amazing season moon.  I like the fact Farrell has mixing up our BP so much this season and given a few youngsters like Workman, Webster and Wright a look as starters.  We have alll talked about Webster, Barnes, Rubby and Renaudo but the unsuspected upcoming prospect for 2013 for me has been Workman, I hope he finds a permanent spot soon.

     

    I also covered the Paw Sox last night.  Bogy got two more hits and looks like a good option sooner than expected but Middy?  Will made another throwing error after making a nice diving play but he still looks like the kid we sent to mature a bit.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The stretch from Sept 2 to 15th could tell all:

    3 vs Det, 4 @ NYY, 3 @ TBR, and 3 v NYY

    then, we play Baltimore in 6 of our last 14 games.

    Sox4ever

     



    I think the team is set up well to finish an amazing season moon.  I like the fact Farrell has mixing up our BP so much this season and given a few youngsters like Workman, Webster and Wright a look as starters.  We have alll talked about Webster, Barnes, Rubby and Renaudo but the unsuspected upcoming prospect for 2013 for me has been Workman, I hope he finds a permanent spot soon.

    How about Britton too?

     

    I also covered the Paw Sox last night.  Bogy got two more hits and looks like a good option sooner than expected but Middy?  Will made another throwing error after making a nice diving play but he still looks like the kid we sent to mature a bit.

    Middy is a puzzle. Bogaerts is awfully young, but looks like he may be ready now.

     

     




     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The stretch from Sept 2 to 15th could tell all:

    3 vs Det, 4 @ NYY, 3 @ TBR, and 3 v NYY

    then, we play Baltimore in 6 of our last 14 games.

    Sox4ever

     



    I think the team is set up well to finish an amazing season moon.  I like the fact Farrell has mixing up our BP so much this season and given a few youngsters like Workman, Webster and Wright a look as starters.  We have alll talked about Webster, Barnes, Rubby and Renaudo but the unsuspected upcoming prospect for 2013 for me has been Workman, I hope he finds a permanent spot soon.

    How about Britton too?

     

    I also covered the Paw Sox last night.  Bogy got two more hits and looks like a good option sooner than expected but Middy?  Will made another throwing error after making a nice diving play but he still looks like the kid we sent to mature a bit.

    Middy is a puzzle. Bogaerts is awfully young, but looks like he may be ready now.

     



    Britton looks good too moon, but Workman really impresses me. His physical makeup reminds me of Wake and he has a great SO to BB ratio.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The stretch from Sept 2 to 15th could tell all:

    3 vs Det, 4 @ NYY, 3 @ TBR, and 3 v NYY

    then, we play Baltimore in 6 of our last 14 games.

    Sox4ever

     



    I think the team is set up well to finish an amazing season moon.  I like the fact Farrell has mixing up our BP so much this season and given a few youngsters like Workman, Webster and Wright a look as starters.  We have alll talked about Webster, Barnes, Rubby and Renaudo but the unsuspected upcoming prospect for 2013 for me has been Workman, I hope he finds a permanent spot soon.

    How about Britton too?

     

    I also covered the Paw Sox last night.  Bogy got two more hits and looks like a good option sooner than expected but Middy?  Will made another throwing error after making a nice diving play but he still looks like the kid we sent to mature a bit.

    Middy is a puzzle. Bogaerts is awfully young, but looks like he may be ready now.

     



    Britton looks good too moon, but Workman really impresses me. His physical makeup reminds me of Wake and he has a great SO to BB ratio.

     



    Workman has looked great in the small sample size (22K 4 BB), but so has Britton (7K 1BB).

     

    Career K/BB in minors:

    Workman 4.01

    Britton      2.13

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The stretch from Sept 2 to 15th could tell all:

    3 vs Det, 4 @ NYY, 3 @ TBR, and 3 v NYY

    then, we play Baltimore in 6 of our last 14 games.

    Sox4ever

     



    I think the team is set up well to finish an amazing season moon.  I like the fact Farrell has mixing up our BP so much this season and given a few youngsters like Workman, Webster and Wright a look as starters.  We have alll talked about Webster, Barnes, Rubby and Renaudo but the unsuspected upcoming prospect for 2013 for me has been Workman, I hope he finds a permanent spot soon.

    How about Britton too?

     

    I also covered the Paw Sox last night.  Bogy got two more hits and looks like a good option sooner than expected but Middy?  Will made another throwing error after making a nice diving play but he still looks like the kid we sent to mature a bit.

    Middy is a puzzle. Bogaerts is awfully young, but looks like he may be ready now.

     



    Britton looks good too moon, but Workman really impresses me. His physical makeup reminds me of Wake and he has a great SO to BB ratio.

     

     



    Workman has looked great in the small sample size (22K 4 BB), but so has Britton (7K 1BB).

     

     

    Career K/BB in minors:

    Workman 4.01

    Britton      2.13



    Not sure why and I could be dead wrong moon but Britton seems like a guy who will end helping the pen more than having success as a SP.  Regardless I can't remember the last time we had so many young hopefuls on the farm.  I also love the way Farrell has been utilizing so many of them this season. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The stretch from Sept 2 to 15th could tell all:

    3 vs Det, 4 @ NYY, 3 @ TBR, and 3 v NYY

    then, we play Baltimore in 6 of our last 14 games.

    Sox4ever

     



    I think the team is set up well to finish an amazing season moon.  I like the fact Farrell has mixing up our BP so much this season and given a few youngsters like Workman, Webster and Wright a look as starters.  We have alll talked about Webster, Barnes, Rubby and Renaudo but the unsuspected upcoming prospect for 2013 for me has been Workman, I hope he finds a permanent spot soon.

    How about Britton too?

     

    I also covered the Paw Sox last night.  Bogy got two more hits and looks like a good option sooner than expected but Middy?  Will made another throwing error after making a nice diving play but he still looks like the kid we sent to mature a bit.

    Middy is a puzzle. Bogaerts is awfully young, but looks like he may be ready now.

     



    Britton looks good too moon, but Workman really impresses me. His physical makeup reminds me of Wake and he has a great SO to BB ratio.

     

     



    Workman has looked great in the small sample size (22K 4 BB), but so has Britton (7K 1BB).

     

     

    Career K/BB in minors:

    Workman 4.01

    Britton      2.13

     



    Not sure why and I could be dead wrong moon but Britton seems like a guy who will end helping the pen more than having success as a SP.  Regardless I can't remember the last time we had so many young hopefuls on the farm.  I also love the way Farrell has been utilizing so many of them this season. 

     



    Ive also said the same thing about Drake britton craze.
    Britton hasnt been consistent since coming off TJS. he has the stuff to be a starter, but hasnt put together a dominant season yet. Some LHP (Doubront?) take a little longer to develop for some reason. I might give him a little more time to see if he can become more consistent before I throw him in the pen.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I'm still a bit skeptical about Workman and Britton. Ben felt better about Webster and Wright than these two. 

    It does bode pretty well for our other higher ranked pitching prospects, if these guys keep pitching this well, unless Ben and the prospect raters are full of bunk.

    Here is a list of soxprospects.com top pitching prospects:

    4) Owens

    5) Webster

    6) de la Rosa

    7) Ranaudo

    8) T Ball

    9) Barnes

    11) Workman

    12) Britton

    15) Stankiewicz

    17) Johnson

    18) Wilson

    21) Buttrey

    30) Callahan

    31) Mercedes

    34) de la Torre

    35) Huntzinger

    36) Light

    37) Kukuk

    39) McGrath

    40) Almonte

    41) Smith

    43) Wright

    45) Martin

    46) Couch

    47) Ramirez

    49) Price

    Then we have non-prospects Doubront (25), Beato (26), Tazawa & Morales (27), and Buch, Mort, Bard, & Miller (28)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm still a bit skeptical about Workman and Britton. Ben felt better about Webster and Wright than these two. 

    It does bode pretty well for our other higher ranked pitching prospects, if these guys keep pitching this well, unless Ben and the prospect raters are full of bunk.

    Here is a list of soxprospects.com top pitching prospects:

    4) Owens

    5) Webster

    6) de la Rosa

    7) Ranaudo

    8) T Ball

    9) Barnes

    11) Workman

    12) Britton

    15) Stankiewicz

    17) Johnson

    18) Wilson

    21) Buttrey

    30) Callahan

    31) Mercedes

    34) de la Torre

    35) Huntzinger

    36) Light

    37) Kukuk

    39) McGrath

    40) Almonte

    41) Smith

    43) Wright

    45) Martin

    46) Couch

    47) Ramirez

    49) Price

    Then we have non-prospects Doubront (25), Beato (26), Tazawa & Morales (27), and Buch, Mort, Bard, & Miller (28)

     

    Sox4ever




    Its great that 11 out of the top 20 are pitchers. They might have to throw Callahan in there pretty soon as well. only 18-19, but the kid is showing some good stuff. Buttrey has looked great too after a rough 1st game. Both from the 2012 draft.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm still a bit skeptical about Workman and Britton. Ben felt better about Webster and Wright than these two. 

    It does bode pretty well for our other higher ranked pitching prospects, if these guys keep pitching this well, unless Ben and the prospect raters are full of bunk.

    Here is a list of soxprospects.com top pitching prospects:

    4) Owens

    5) Webster

    6) de la Rosa

    7) Ranaudo

    8) T Ball

    9) Barnes

    11) Workman

    12) Britton

    15) Stankiewicz

    17) Johnson

    18) Wilson

    21) Buttrey

    30) Callahan

    31) Mercedes

    34) de la Torre

    35) Huntzinger

    36) Light

    37) Kukuk

    39) McGrath

    40) Almonte

    41) Smith

    43) Wright

    45) Martin

    46) Couch

    47) Ramirez

    49) Price

    Then we have non-prospects Doubront (25), Beato (26), Tazawa & Morales (27), and Buch, Mort, Bard, & Miller (28)

     

    Sox4ever

     




    Its great that 11 out of the top 20 are pitchers. They might have to throw Callahan in there pretty soon as well. only 18-19, but the kid is showing some good stuff. Buttrey has looked great too after a rough 1st game. Both from the 2012 draft.

     



    We are certainly still deep enough to land another big RH bat like Stanton at some point even though I don't like his defense.  I'm hoping our young RH bats like Middy, Brentz and Bogy come along so we don't get pushed in that direction but we need more than Nap, Salty and Gomes.  I also don't see Bradley making us forget Ells for a year or two if we lose him as a FA next season.   
     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm still a bit skeptical about Workman and Britton. Ben felt better about Webster and Wright than these two. 

    It does bode pretty well for our other higher ranked pitching prospects, if these guys keep pitching this well, unless Ben and the prospect raters are full of bunk.

    Here is a list of soxprospects.com top pitching prospects:

    4) Owens

    5) Webster

    6) de la Rosa

    7) Ranaudo

    8) T Ball

    9) Barnes

    11) Workman

    12) Britton

    15) Stankiewicz

    17) Johnson

    18) Wilson

    21) Buttrey

    30) Callahan

    31) Mercedes

    34) de la Torre

    35) Huntzinger

    36) Light

    37) Kukuk

    39) McGrath

    40) Almonte

    41) Smith

    43) Wright

    45) Martin

    46) Couch

    47) Ramirez

    49) Price

    Then we have non-prospects Doubront (25), Beato (26), Tazawa & Morales (27), and Buch, Mort, Bard, & Miller (28)

     

    Sox4ever

     




    Its great that 11 out of the top 20 are pitchers. They might have to throw Callahan in there pretty soon as well. only 18-19, but the kid is showing some good stuff. Buttrey has looked great too after a rough 1st game. Both from the 2012 draft.

     



    True, but what amazes me most is that we have 6 guys rated above Workman and Britton, and look how good they have been!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm still a bit skeptical about Workman and Britton. Ben felt better about Webster and Wright than these two. 

    It does bode pretty well for our other higher ranked pitching prospects, if these guys keep pitching this well, unless Ben and the prospect raters are full of bunk.

    Here is a list of soxprospects.com top pitching prospects:

    4) Owens

    5) Webster

    6) de la Rosa

    7) Ranaudo

    8) T Ball

    9) Barnes

    11) Workman

    12) Britton

    15) Stankiewicz

    17) Johnson

    18) Wilson

    21) Buttrey

    30) Callahan

    31) Mercedes

    34) de la Torre

    35) Huntzinger

    36) Light

    37) Kukuk

    39) McGrath

    40) Almonte

    41) Smith

    43) Wright

    45) Martin

    46) Couch

    47) Ramirez

    49) Price

    Then we have non-prospects Doubront (25), Beato (26), Tazawa & Morales (27), and Buch, Mort, Bard, & Miller (28)

     

    Sox4ever

     




    Its great that 11 out of the top 20 are pitchers. They might have to throw Callahan in there pretty soon as well. only 18-19, but the kid is showing some good stuff. Buttrey has looked great too after a rough 1st game. Both from the 2012 draft.

     

     



    We are certainly still deep enough to land another big RH bat like Stanton at some point even though I don't like his defense.  I'm hoping our young RH bats like Middy, Brentz and Bogy come along so we don't get pushed in that direction but we need more than Nap, Salty and Gomes.  I also don't see Bradley making us forget Ells for a year or two if we lose him as a FA next season.   
     

     




    Hey craze,

    check your messages here on BDC. go to your profile and its under messages. you can send me one back by clicking on my name and doing the same.

     
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