A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

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    Its great that 11 out of the top 20 are pitchers. They might have to throw Callahan in there pretty soon as well. only 18-19, but the kid is showing some good stuff. Buttrey has looked great too after a rough 1st game. Both from the 2012 draft.

     

     

     

     

     



    True, but what amazes me most is that we have 6 guys rated above Workman and Britton, and look how good they have been!

     

     

     

     




     

    That is a big surprise re Workman and Britton isn't it. Look at our situation as compared to the Yankees going forward, especially in terms of minor league talent and potential pitching help from the farm. I like our chances for years to come.

    Got to give a shout out to Callahan and to a lesser degree Butrey as they have shown that the 2012 year is not worthless. Betts has stepped up a lot also. It still is a off year overall in terms of the farm but Callahan might end up being a gem. He looks like the stud in that draft. Thank god some of these guys are starting to pan out.

    Owens was just ranked the #3 southpaw pitching prospect in baseball this week by BA. Gotta love that street cred.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Augliera has won 3 pitcher of the week awards this year too Boom...Another 2012 draftee.

    [/QUOTE]


    Realistically, Buttrey and Aguilera are borderline mlb level players at best. Neither looks to be more than trade bait to me. Callahan is another story. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Fair enough, but Id like to know what you see when you watch them live over a full game(s) that makes you think this? Not sure they would throw 1.3M at Buttrey if they didnt see more than borderline. Hes looked good in the couple starts Ive seen him play. Not that Im a pro scout, but Ive seen some slight improvements already in repeating his delivery more on a downward plane. FB had more movement last time out too. This obviously coming from an armchair scout.

    On another note...I like what Ive seen from McGrath. Good southpaw. Littrell looks good for a junk ball throwing LHP too. Lots of good potential in Lowell this year.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I think we have to go back to Clemens, Hurst and Ojeda to find a time I felt more excitement over young pitchers and pitching prospects in our system.

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I also am in the camp of not worrying too much about Naps Ks. You can still have productive ABs that end with a K. Naps leads MLB in P/PA. Even though he strikes out a lot the rest of his stats aren't bad and he sees a TON of pitches. If his production was terrible and he still had a bunch of Ks then that would be a different story. but that is not the case.

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

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    Its great that 11 out of the top 20 are pitchers. They might have to throw Callahan in there pretty soon as well. only 18-19, but the kid is showing some good stuff. Buttrey has looked great too after a rough 1st game. Both from the 2012 draft.

     

     

     

     

     



    True, but what amazes me most is that we have 6 guys rated above Workman and Britton, and look how good they have been!

     

     

     

     




     

    That is a big surprise re Workman and Britton isn't it. Look at our situation as compared to the Yankees going forward, especially in terms of minor league talent and potential pitching help from the farm. I like our chances for years to come.

    Got to give a shout out to Callahan and to a lesser degree Butrey as they have shown that the 2012 year is not worthless. Betts has stepped up a lot also. It still is a off year overall in terms of the farm but Callahan might end up being a gem. He looks like the stud in that draft. Thank god some of these guys are starting to pan out.

    Owens was just ranked the #3 southpaw pitching prospect in baseball this week by BA. Gotta love that street cred.

     




    Augliera has won 3 pitcher of the week awards this year too Boom...Another 2012 draftee.

    [/QUOTE]


    Realistically, Buttrey and Aguilera are borderline mlb level players at best. Neither looks to be more than trade bait to me. Callahan is another story. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Fair enough, but Id like to know what you see when you watch them live over a full game(s) that makes you think this? Not sure they would throw 1.3M at Buttrey if they didnt see more than borderline. Hes looked good in the couple starts Ive seen him play. Not that Im a pro scout, but Ive seen some slight improvements already in repeating his delivery more on a downward plane. FB had more movement last time out too. This obviously coming from an armchair scout.

    On another note...I like what Ive seen from McGrath. Good southpaw. Littrell looks good for a junk ball throwing LHP too. Lots of good potential in Lowell this year.

    [/QUOTE]

    I haven't seen Butrey in person but he is still in short season ball ( I think ) and he doesn't generate many swings and misses. 5 K/9. I don't think the early data indicates a guy who has the stuff to succeed. Maybe he is a huge pitch to contact guy but the early indications are that he's just not big league material. Callahan is much younger with better numbers so far.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I haven't seen Butrey in person but he is still in short season ball ( I think ) and he doesn't generate many swings and misses. 5 K/9. I don't think the early data indicates a guy who has the stuff to succeed. Maybe he is a huge pitch to contact guy but the early indications are that he's just not big league material. Callahan is much younger with better numbers so far.

    Are you feeling any better about last year's draftees?

    Marrero  314 AB  .248/.328/.322/.649

    Johnson  61 IP  1-4  2.80 ERA  1.18 WHIP (64Ks)

    Light          26 IP  1-3  8.06 ERA  1.95 WHIP (24 Ks)

    Callahan  38 IP  3-1  3.99 ERA  1.07 WHIP (33Ks)

    Maddox  76 IP  4-6  6.54 ERA  1.63 WHIP  (58 Ks)

    Buttrey   37 IP  3-2  2.65 ERA  1.21 WHIP  (1.50 G/F)

    Augiera 113 IP  7-6  4.06 ERA 1.31 WHIP (1.56 G/F)

    Haley       96 IP  6-8  3.76 ERA  1.19 WHIP (93 Ks)

    Kraus      65 IP  4-2  3.34 ERA  1.27 WHIP (2.59 G/F & 50Ks)

    Minnich  90 AB  .256/.382/.422/.804 (14 XBHs)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I haven't seen Butrey in person but he is still in short season ball ( I think ) and he doesn't generate many swings and misses. 5 K/9. I don't think the early data indicates a guy who has the stuff to succeed. Maybe he is a huge pitch to contact guy but the early indications are that he's just not big league material. Callahan is much younger with better numbers so far.

    Are you feeling any better about last year's draftees?

    Marrero  314 AB  .248/.328/.322/.649

    Johnson  61 IP  1-4  2.80 ERA  1.18 WHIP (64Ks)

    Light          26 IP  1-3  8.06 ERA  1.95 WHIP (24 Ks)

    Callahan  38 IP  3-1  3.99 ERA  1.07 WHIP (33Ks)

    Maddox  76 IP  4-6  6.54 ERA  1.63 WHIP  (58 Ks)

    Buttrey   37 IP  3-2  2.65 ERA  1.21 WHIP  (1.50 G/F)

    Augiera 113 IP  7-6  4.06 ERA 1.31 WHIP (1.56 G/F)

    Haley       96 IP  6-8  3.76 ERA  1.19 WHIP (93 Ks)

    Kraus      65 IP  4-2  3.34 ERA  1.27 WHIP (2.59 G/F & 50Ks)

    Minnich  90 AB  .256/.382/.422/.804 (14 XBHs)

     

    Sox4ever



    You've got to agree Moon that those are very unimpressive numbers. Johnson has been improving but a college pitcher at his level should be on to Salem by now. Butrey should be in Greenville. Even Callahan has not been lighting it up but he shows some potential. The guys from this year's draft ( Denny, Longhi ) are not setting the world on fire either. There is no reason to think the low minors is a strength at all right now. But the high minors are loaded so overall we are in a good position.

    It sure would be good to see a major power bat come through the system. Bogaerts is so important to this organization.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Believe me, I want to be more positive about the lower minors. It just isn't there.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    It is true that none of these guys are really lighting the world on fire, but it is early, even for college kids. Johnson, Callahan & Bettrey's numbers look pretty good, and maybe they are not being promoted due to a logjam at the top of the farm system.

    Adjustments need to be made.

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    The lowest level of the minors (A ball) is for these young kids to learn how to play and get used to pro ball and also to refine their raw skills. Thats why I never get too caught up in A ball stats, especially their first year or 2.

    Pitchers are having their mechanics tinkered with their first year and the same with a lot of the hitters and their approach.

    Take Buttrey. theyve tinkered with his delivery so he consistently throws more on a downward plane. While hes adjusting to that theres going to a learning curve and probably a few bad games. But their not so worried about the bad games as they are getting the proper mechanics. Same goes for the hitters.

    Johnson has dealt with 2 injuries which is why hes at Greenville. Buttrey is 20 but was still a HS player when drafted, Like Callahan. No reason to rush them along. Stankiewicz and Litrell are ahead of either of them anyway and should be in Greenville first. Sometimes it depends on the roster and other players in regards to promotions, not just age.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Just got back from the game. WOW!

    Drew is turning me into a believer!

    Gomes with a big hit and a surprisingly great play in RF.

    Dempster is doing his best to lose his slot when Buch comes back.

    I snuck up to the second row behind the Sox dugout in the 7th.

    "Stros fans are pretty lame.

    Taz & Uehara. Budda-bing-budda-bang!

    Papi finding the holes and hitting it where they ain't!

    Not sure what Victorino said from the dugout to get tossed.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    GREAT game to see, Moon!

    Gotta be honest, I thought we were done.  Asking for lightening to strike twice was just asking too much.  But boy, incredible.

    The way Drew is playing, it'll be sad to see him go.

    What about Ortiz??

    I feels like 2004 or '67 all over again.

    We'll be seeing them in SF in a few weeks.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to mef429's comment:

    I also am in the camp of not worrying too much about Naps Ks.


    I disagree. The best thing about his Ks is that he would otherwise be involved in more DPs. The high pitch counts aren't much of a consolation prize. He's really looked bad / stranded a lot of runners recently.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to lasitter's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    I also am in the camp of not worrying too much about Naps Ks.

    I disagree. The best thing about his Ks is that he would otherwise be involved in more DPs. The high pitch counts aren't much of a consolation prize. He's really looked bad / stranded a lot of runners recently.

     

     

     



    I'm hoping it's just a slump and not some sign of an injury or permanent decline setting in at fast forward speed.

     

    Napoli is a streaky hitter. He sometimes seems to have had near season long streaks- both good and bad. 

    It was great to see Gomes come through, and I hope Carp can do some 5 hole damage against righties, but my guess is, we will need Napoli before too long. We are playing a hot Royals team. Has anyone seen tonight's line-up? I wonder who will bat 5th vs the lefty Bruce Chen.

    Is nava back? With a lefty going, he may not be sorely missed.

    My conservative line-up tonight would be...

    1- Ells

    2- Vic

    3- Ped

    4- Ortiz

    5- Gomes

    6- Napoli (Carp ?)

    7- Drew

    8- Lava (Salty?)

    9- Snyder

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I can see giving Papi the night off vs a lefty, even though he is red hot, but I don't see why Holt is starting over Snyder vs a lefty.

    I'd probably have give Salty the night off too.

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Let's hope we win the division and avoid the WC play-in game.

    The Rays will not go away, and here is a look at what they have left...

     

    They play at the Dodgers this weekend and have Monday off.

    They then have just one more day off in August and two for the rest of the season...

     

    3 vs SEA

    3 vs TOR

    2 @ BAL

      Day off (Aug 27th)

    3 vs NYY

    1 @ KCR

    3 vs LAA

    3 @ OAK (To Sept 1st)

    4 @ LAA

    3 @ SEA

      Day off (Sept 9th)

    3 vs BOS

    3 @ MN

    4 vs TEX

    4 vs BAL

    3 @ NYY

    3 @ TOR

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Ellsbury is really on a tear. Let's hope it's contagious.

    Sox4ever

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

    [QUOTE]I also am in the camp of not worrying too much about Naps Ks.



    I disagree. The best thing about his Ks is that he would otherwise be involved in more DPs. The high pitch counts aren't much of a consolation prize. He's really looked bad / stranded a lot of runners recently.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Naps is a big part of why our offense is as good as it is. 1-9 we grind out ABs, get into deep counts and knock starters out of games early. Naps is leading that charge (being #1 in MLB in P/PA).

    people are just getting on his case because he is in a slump and they don't have anything else to whine about. 2012 was a whiners paradise. in 2013 the worst thing you can say about this team is that Buch is taking a while to get back onto the field (NBD as long as he returns before the PS) and that Naps Ks a lot (NBD as the rest of his stata are good to great).

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Ellsbury is really on a tear. Let's hope it's contagious.

    Sox4ever




    that's because Big numbah two is a BAAAAAAAD MAAAAN.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Oh for 5. We should have traded him while his stock was high.

     

    LOL

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Sox starters since 2012:

     

    ERA-

    Lackey 79

    Buch     86

    Peavy   88

    Demp    93

    Doub     99

    Lester  109

     

    WHIP

    Peavy   1.12

    Lack      1.22

    Buch      1.23

    Demp    1.32

    Lest       1.37

    Doub      1.41

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    My projected 2014 40 man Roster (41 with Kalish on 60 Day DL):

    SP: Lester, Buchholz, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey, Dempster, Britton, Webster,

          Workman, Ranaudo

    RP: Free Agent, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Morales, Miller, Thornton, Bailey,  

          de la Rosa, Wilson, de la Torre, Beato, Villarreal

    C: Free Agent, Ross, Lava, Vazquez

    1B: Free Agent, Carp

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Free Agent, Middlebrooks, Cecchini

    SS: Bogaerts, Holt

    OF: Free Agent, Victorino, Nava, Gomes, Bradley, Brentz, Kalish (60 Day DL)

     

    Gone somehow: Bard, Wright, Butler, Snyder, & Hassan

    Taken by Rule 5: de la Cruz & Vinicio

    We may sign only 4 free agents and keep one of the above. We could also make a 2 or 3 for 1 trade that would allow us to keep some of the bubble players. For example, trade Brentz, Lava, and Villarreal for player to fill a "free agent" slot listed in red above. That would allow us to protect de la Cruz and maybe Snyder or Hassan.

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxforlife22. Show soxforlife22's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    My projected 2014 40 man Roster (41 with Kalish on 60 Day DL):

    SP: Lester, Buchholz, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey, Dempster, Britton, Webster,

          Workman, Ranaudo

    RP: Free Agent, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Morales, Miller, Thornton, Bailey,  

          de la Rosa, Wilson, de la Torre, Beato, Villarreal

    C: Free Agent, Ross, Lava, Vazquez

    1B: Free Agent, Carp

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Free Agent, Middlebrooks, Cecchini

    SS: Bogaerts, Holt

    OF: Free Agent, Victorino, Nava, Gomes, Bradley, Brentz, Kalish (60 Day DL)

     

    Gone somehow: Bard, Wright, Butler, Snyder, & Hassan

    Taken by Rule 5: de la Cruz & Vinicio

    We may sign only 4 free agents and keep one of the above. We could also make a 2 or 3 for 1 trade that would allow us to keep some of the bubble players. For example, trade Brentz, Lava, and Villarreal for player to fill a "free agent" slot listed in red above. That would allow us to protect de la Cruz and maybe Snyder or Hassan.

    Sox4ever




    I do not see the sox picking up a free agent reliever, 3rd basemen, or OF. The need for relief pitching is minimal as we have many young pitchers ready to contribute in the big leagues, and we will have morales and miller back healthy. The only way i could see them getting a reliever is if it is a top end high impact righty set up man. I dont see them picking up a third basemen or outfielder mostly because im optomistic about WMB and JBJ, which i could be off on, but i will stick with my believe that they will play well next year. Obviously a signing needs to be made to bring in some sort of righty power bat, and i think the signing will be made for a first basemen (Jose Abreu? Hart? Morse?), and another infielder is needed for depth (a utility type). Thornton will in all likelihood not be back next year as he is worth nowhere near his option, and I think bailey will be non-tendered. This leaves the 40 man i think will end up being...

    SP: Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy, Lester, Doubront, Dempster, Webster, De la Rosa, Ranaudo

    BP: Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Morales, Wilson, Workman, Britton, Beato, Villareal

    C: Free Agent, Ross, Lavarnway, Butler, Vasquez

    1B: Free Agent, Carp

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Middlebrooks, Cecchini

    SS: Bogaerts, Holt, Free Agent

    OF: Victorino, Nava, Gomez, Bradley, Brentz, Hazelbaker, Hassan

    DH: Ortiz

    60 day DL: Kalish

    Gone: Bard, Snyder, De la Torre, Wright

    Rule 5: Almanzar (returned)

    They could keep players like Wright, De la Torre and Snyder until after the rule five as long as they havent signed free agents at that point. Those three along with other lower end guys on the 40 man could be used in a trade to make space or fill a free agent spot. I dont think the front office wants to DFA De la Torre or Wright, so look for a trade involving these players, or players blocking them on the 40 man (ie. Dempster). Snyder is of very little use to this team seeing as he has no options so a trade or being designated seems likely.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I was a little down on Brian Johnson pitching in Greenville at 22 years old but then I remembered another pitcher who spent his age 22 season in Greenville and put up numbers that you'd expect to be more dominant for a 22 year old in low A with a big league future: BRANDON WORKMAN.

     

    Lets also not forget he's lost time due to injury.  He could fly up to Portland by next year and be in Boston at some point in 2015,

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Sox won't protect players they feel aren't MLB ready.  I don't think De La Cruz gets protected.  Almanzar might be a trade candidate, with Cecchini in Pawtucket Snyder might be expendable. (but they might view him as depth at 1B.  I can see one of Nava/Carp gone and I don't think the Sox will give up on Daniel Bard just yet.

     
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