Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III
posted at 8/17/2013 7:39 PM EDT
In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
As much as I respect soxprospects.com, as they are the best resource we have by far regarding prospects, no one gets it right all the time. First off I highly recommend that everyone vote with their wallet by contributing to the site at:
They really jive us great bang for our buck and please do your part even if it is only a few bucks at a time.
We all need to evaluate prospects to the best of our abilities if we are to make reasonable projections. For example, Workman hasn't been a top 10 guy really at all on soxprospects and yet he is the guy who came up and has done well so far this year, not Webster, not De Larosa. Who is to say really who is the better prospect. Maybe we have been getting it wrong all along.
I caught all kinds of grief projecting Lavarnway as sticking at catcher and here he is. I thought Nava was vastly underated as I didn't care if he was a 26 year old prospect since he still was still hitting a consistent .340 with solid OBP anyway with decent swing mechanics. He shouldn't have been down at #40 ...etc. The point being that sometimes even the best analysts get it wrong. Anderson, Hansen, Navarro, Lin...we could go on and on. No one gets it right all the time of course.
Another example is that I didn't want to resign Ortiz this year. So how about that projection!
I'm hopeful that Workman proves to be a big part of our future.
It's hard to really know about Workman or Britton. Their sample sizes in MLB this year are both pretty small (under 30 IP). They both certainly look promising, but a lot is still in question.
soxprospects has been pretty good at ranking prospects considering how difficult it is to rank players at various levels of development, various ages and experience, and various team levels within the farm system.
Even if Workman and or Britton go on to become better than many of us expected, we won't really know if soxprosapects was right or wrong until we see how the pitchers ranked ahead of Workman and Britton fair over the next few years.
Here's how soxprospects has ranked just the SP prospects...
6) de la Rosa
9) Trey Ball
28) L. Diaz
38) S Gomez
39) D McGrath
43) M Smith
46) S Wright
48) K Couch
53) P Stroup
54) J Haley
55) M Adams
56) C Littrell
57) J Aro
59) J Almonte
60) D Jimenez
Highest past rankings (making top 20 at some point) since 2005:
1) C Kelly, Buchholz, Masterson, Papelbon, Lester
2) Barnes, Ranaudo, Bowden, Bard, Hansen
3) Webster, Doubront
4) Britton, de la Rosa, Owens, B Cox, A Alvarez, A Sanchez
6) Hagadone, Tazawa, Delcarmen
8) C Meredith
9) T Ball
10) A Alvarez, D Pauley
13) Weiland, Fuentes, Gabbard
15) Pimental, S Fife
20) P Light