A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I just wrote my summer review and lost my whole thing: probably you guys have discussed all this stuff anyway, so I'll just rewrite my opinions:

         Workman should be starting and Dempster should be in the pen.

         The secondary pitchers and the remaining bp guys who weren't injured saved our bacon.

         Gomes ALWAYS gets a hit when you really need it.  Until the last three weeks or so, Salty was just the opposite.  Lately he's been hitting timely and has put in a huge work load.  I like Ells and Victorino on the bases and in the field.  I want Ells back, but if not, then I think JB2 gives us the same package.

         I hated to lose Iggy but I don't think management ever saw him in the future, so we got a good pitcher and Bogey's coming anyway.

         Is Doobie growing up before our eyes?

         I don't care if they don't re-up Lester.  It's disturbing how he gets lost.  He reminds me of Linscecum--no hitter one game and can't throw strikes the next.  But Linscecum doesn't get pouty and blame the umps.

         Peavey is the Pedey of the Pitchers.  Catchy, huh?

         How did that despicably fat beer guzzling chicken eating Lackey with sour attitude turn himself into this fit gutsy guy for whom you actually can admire?

         Ortiz and Pedey, amazing years and I love to watch Papi go the opposite way...

         Our future looks very bright.

         I like Naps, his numbers will probably be fine at the end of the year, but his fades are disturbing--will he be there in the playoffs?  Nice to be back, and I can't wait for the Dodgers...   

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    I just wrote my summer review and lost my whole thing: probably you guys have discussed all this stuff anyway, so I'll just rewrite my opinions:

         Workman should be starting and Dempster should be in the pen.

         The secondary pitchers and the remaining bp guys who weren't injured saved our bacon.

         Gomes ALWAYS gets a hit when you really need it.  Until the last three weeks or so, Salty was just the opposite.  Lately he's been hitting timely and has put in a huge work load.  I like Ells and Victorino on the bases and in the field.  I want Ells back, but if not, then I think JB2 gives us the same package.

         I hated to lose Iggy but I don't think management ever saw him in the future, so we got a good pitcher and Bogey's coming anyway.

         Is Doobie growing up before our eyes?

         I don't care if they don't re-up Lester.  It's disturbing how he gets lost.  He reminds me of Linscecum--no hitter one game and can't throw strikes the next.  But Linscecum doesn't get pouty and blame the umps.

         Peavey is the Pedey of the Pitchers.  Catchy, huh?

         How did that despicably fat beer guzzling chicken eating Lackey with sour attitude turn himself into this fit gutsy guy for whom you actually can admire?

         Ortiz and Pedey, amazing years and I love to watch Papi go the opposite way...

         Our future looks very bright.

         I like Naps, his numbers will probably be fine at the end of the year, but his fades are disturbing--will he be there in the playoffs?  Nice to be back, and I can't wait for the Dodgers...   

     



    Great summary. Welcome back.

    Sorry about missing you in Maine this summer. I lost your phone number, and things got hectic.

    I'm hoping Lester can stay consistent. He's looked very good recently. I still think Buch is the key. If we can open the playoffs with Buch- Lester-Peavy- Lackey/Doub, I'm feeling pretty good.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Our remining schedule after the Dodgers and the day off Monday:

    3 Bal

    3 CWS

    3 Det

    4 @ NYY

     Day off

    3 @ TBR

    3 NYY

     Day off

    3 Bal

    3 Tor

     Day Off

    2 @ Col

    3 @ Bal

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moon, no worries, I assumed something like that and I was busy too but I didn't want to miss a group trip to a game--did that come off?  Anyway, we'll have to make it work next summer.
    Loved last night's game, the focus of the RS, Peavey's intensity, the timely hitting of Salty, Nap's bat warming up, and Bogey's hitting...I love the fact that every time they drop out of first, they seem to gather themselves and come back.  If they play the rest of the year like last night with Buch back, ouch!  I like the way things are shaping up for the stretch.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    No group game this year, but next year is a must.

    Peavy is a huge addition to this year's club (and next year's as well). I hated to see Iggy go, but I doubt he was ever going to be allowed to be our FT SS. Peavy is a warrior who has a drive to win that others may feed off.

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    The AL race:

    Detroit 77-54

    Boston 77-55

    Texas  75-55

     

    Tampa 74-55

    Oak.     73-57

     

    Cleve   71-59  -2

    Balt     70-59   -2.5

    NYY     69-62   -4.5

    KCR     66-64   -7

     

    Tampa has a tough stretch coming up:

    LAA x 3

    @Oak x 3

    @LAA x 4

    @Sea x 3

    BOS x 3

    @MN x 3

    Tex x 4

    Bal x 4

    @NYY x 3

    @Tor x 3

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    September games left (not in order by time):

    BOS: 3@ TBR, 3 v BAL, 3 @ Bal, 4@ NYY, 3 v NYY, 3 v TOR, 3 v DET, 2 @ COL

    TBR: 3 v BOS, 4 v BAL, 3 @ NYY, 3 @ TOR, 4 v TX, 4 @ LAA, 3 @ SEA,  3 @ MN

    BAL: 3 v BOS, 3@ BOS, 4 @ TBR, 3 @ TOR, 3 v TOR, 4 v NYY, 3 @ CLE, 4 v CWS

    DET: 3 @ BOS, 3 @ KCR, 3 v KCR, 4 v SEA, 3 @ MN, 3 @ MIA, 3 @ CWS, 3 v CWS

    TEX: 3 @ OAK, 3 vs OAK, 3 @ LAA, 4 v LAA, 4 @ TBR, 3 v PIT, 3 @ KCR, 3 v HOU

    OAK: 3 @ TEX, 3 v TEX, 3 @ LAA, 3 v LAA, 3 @ MN, 4 v MN, 3 @ SEA, 4 v HOU

     

    As you can see, Texas has a rough schedule. I think we have a harder schedule than Tampa, but it is close. The Tigers look to have the easiest schedule as they have 6 gms vs the CWS and 6 vs MIA & MN combined.

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Sox starters in the 2nd half of 2013:

    ERA-

    55 Lester

    78 Peavy

    84 Doubront

    95 Lackey

    153 Dempster

    WHIP

    0.98 Peavy

    1.16 Lester

    1.27 Lackey

    1.30 Doubront

    1.57 Dempster

    Traditional Numbers

    Lester 4-1  2.31

    Peavy 2-1  3.31

    Doub   3-3  3.52

    Lackey 1-5  3.99

    Demo   1-1  6.43

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Big win tonight. Too bad Lackey didn't get the win.

    Uehara is unreal.

    We got some unlucky hits late, but hit the ball hard for outs earlier in the game.

    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Love our resiliency.  Twenty last at bat wins!  That's amazing.  I think someone made a point of letting the RS know they had a losing record against Baltimore.  Moon, I still don't know how this all came together like this.  I'm starting to think BC is a better evaluator than Theo.  I just love the way the future looks now with these guys, after the Dodger trade, with guys we've got coming...How do you stand on re-upping Ells?  Lester?  I want them to get both, but I don't think we really get hurt if we lose them.  JB Jr. replaces Ells and I think Workman is on his way.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Love our resiliency.  Twenty last at bat wins!  That's amazing.  I think someone made a point of letting the RS know they had a losing record against Baltimore.  Moon, I still don't know how this all came together like this.  I'm starting to think BC is a better evaluator than Theo.  I just love the way the future looks now with these guys, after the Dodger trade, with guys we've got coming...How do you stand on re-upping Ells?  Lester?  I want them to get both, but I don't think we really get hurt if we lose them.  JB Jr. replaces Ells and I think Workman is on his way.



    It's a hard one for me to figure out. I was clearly wrong about our chances this year. What amazes me more than anything is that we are where we are despite a poor showing by Middlebrooks, the Bailey & Hanrahan failings, and under expectations by signees Dempster, Napoli, and until fairly recently, Victorino and Gomes.

    Has Ellsbury exceeded expectations? Pedey? Papi? JBJ? 

    The only guys that are clearly doing better than what I expected are Lackey, Doubront, Nava and maybe Drew, Salty & Uehara. Yet, here we are.

    I love being wrong like this.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Don't think many expected this. I'm an optimist when it comes to RS and early season predictions and I gave them 90 wins. Basically the next 16 games Det/NYY/TBR/NYY/Bal will determine if we win the division get through this stretch and maintain a lead, then RS will be in a very good position. Maybe DET slumps a bit and we could end w/ homefield advantage. Lot of the credit has to go to Farrell and Nieves, did anyone see this team having the 2nd best league era this year or being able to keep the bullpen afloat w/ season ending losses of Bailey/Hanrahan/Miller? also lot of credit has to go to Ben, bringing in high character guys has given this team a never say die attitude we haven't seen since probably 04. Not to mention a minor league system that has a lot of talented young players on the way. After last year think no one thought we would be where we are today and anyone that says they did is full of it! Go RS!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I projected 84 wins and almost no chance of being a serious contender for a ring.

    I am more of a believer in "attitude" being more of an influencing factor.

    Farrell and Nieves might be the real team MVPs.

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Team record in starts by...

     

    Buchholz    11-1

    Doubront  15-10

    Lester       16-12

    Dempster  14-11

    Lackey      11-13

     

    Peavy      2-3  (10-8 counting CWS)

    Aceves    4-2

    Webster  3-3

    Workman 1-2

    Morales   1-0

    Wright     1-0

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    QS%

    100% Workman 

    83%  Buchholz

    71%  Lackey

    63%  Doubront

    60%  Peavy

    57%  Lester

    (League avg 52%)

    48%  Dempster

    33%  Aceves & Webster

    0%    Morales & Wright

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Nice win tonight.

    Could Dempster be a good long relief man once Buch returns?

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Numbers before tonight's game:

    Team leaders in... (190+ PAs)

    OBP

    .390 Ortiz

    .382 Nava

    .376 Pedey

    .362 Carp

    .357 Ellsb

    .346 Vict

    .339 Salty

    .337 Napoli

    .334 Gomes

    .333 Drew

    .272 Midd

     

    SLG

    .557 Ortiz

    .551 Carp

    .454 Salty

    .452 Vict

    .448 Napoli

    .439 Nava

    .428 Drew

    .422 Ellsb

    .417 Gomes

    .417 Pedey

    .416 Midd

     

    OPS

    .947 Ortiz

    .913 carp

    .821 Nava

    .799 Vict

    .794 Pedey

    .793 Salty

    .785 Naps

    .778 Ellsb

    .761 Drew

    .752 Gomes

    .687 Midd

    (.785 Iggy)

     

    Is there another team in MLB with 8 (190+ PA) guys over .775 or 10 over .750?

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III


    J. Lowrie: age 29, salary: 2.4M

    avg: .294, hr: 10, rbi: 57, runs: 63, obp: .352, slg: .441, games: 127, 2b: 39

     

    S. Drew: age 30, salary: 9.5M

    avg: .248, hr: 10, rbi :53, runs: 47, obp: .333, slg: .428, games: 101, 2b:  22

     

    Sometimes I wonder how things would have been if he hadn't had the broken wrist and mono when he was with us.  Unfortunately, we ran out of patience.

    He's healthy now and doing a whale of a job for the A's.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Nice win tonight.

    Could Dempster be a good long relief man once Buch returns?

    Sox4ever



    Demp does have 225 career Relief appearances / 348 career Starts. I really hope Buchholz doesn't miss a beat when he returns. He might be the difference between a WS ring and a pretty good, entertaining, glad I watched, season. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     


    J. Lowrie: age 29, salary: 2.4M

    avg: .294, hr: 10, rbi: 57, runs: 63, obp: .352, slg: .441, games: 127, 2b: 39

     

    S. Drew: age 30, salary: 9.5M

    avg: .248, hr: 10, rbi :53, runs: 47, obp: .333, slg: .428, games: 101, 2b:  22

     

    Sometimes I wonder how things would have been if he hadn't had the broken wrist and mono when he was with us.  Unfortunately, we ran out of patience.

    He's healthy now and doing a whale of a job for the A's.

     

     



    and he is putting those numbers up in Oakland, a notoriously bad place to hit. Good for him.

     

    I have just caught up with this thread after being gone for a while. Looks like you caught a few games in SF Amp. With 2, count them, 2 pretty women no less. Man, life must be good!

    I honestly can't remember what I projected earlier in the year but I think it was around 93 wins. I took a chance and thought Lackey might come back strong. He had lost a lot of weight and the guy was real consistent for many years before getting hurt. It was a calculated risk but to me it made sense. He is a big part of this.

    Buchholz was a mega stud for awhile there. That definitely helped also, but he was a megastud for a while a year or 2 ago also and has shown some ability in his career. He was coming into his prime and I thought he would be good. He turned out even better but he did get hurt and that affected us also.

    I projected an even better year from Ellsbury but he has been fine overall. I have to agree with Moon that we have had some luck also but we also have had our share of injuries and I didn't see Middlebrook's swoon coming. It hasn't been all luck. We just had better than expected pitching but it wasn't crazy to think guys like Lackey, Lester and Buchholz could trend back above average. We always seem to hit.

    I had no freaking idea that Ortiz would come back this strong. And I can't explain it. But i will be happy to take those numbers considering the alternative.

    Gotta say that every time I see Iglesias make an outstanding fielding play I miss him bad. I don't care if he was projected to hit .220. I thought he was better than that and he is proving it. He always had the bat speed and the fundamentals and the guy can absolutely pick it with the fastest hands in the history of baseball. As good as Xander looks to become, I'd move him somewhere else and still want Iglesias as our SS. When we play Detroit in the playoffs, we will get reminded of it regularly. For years to come. 

    I don't dispute the trade though. Peavy was an excellent value. The best of the available starters at the break. And we do have Xander but Iglesias was a tremendous value also with 4 more years of control than Peavy. Everyone got value in that deal and to me, Detroit got the best deal of all.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    By the way, Iglesias has hit .280 since joining Detroit, and had some of his best fielding plays. He's still hitting .320 for the year and has to be considered in the running for ROY I would think. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III


    I have a feeling that part of the reason Iggy was traded is because of attitude.

    I read an article that said some of the veteran Tigers felt that he sometimes was 'over flashy'..unnecessarily show boating.  Maybe it's just envy, who knows.  But the article said that they expected Leland to address it.  If any of this is true and combined with the hustle and pout attitude that occured with the PawSox, I can see where the Sox organization wouldn't want the super chemistry that presently exists in the clubhouse to be affected.

    I realize he's still hitting well and his defense is astounding, but I still feel his hitting bubble will burst.  I mean, how long can a guy live on seeing-eye grounders or bloopers.

    Bogearts, on the other hand, looks much more comfortable at the plate than Iggy.  He's patient, good a good eye and hits solid shots.  I think Bogey is the real deal.

    Yeah, had a great time in SF.  A nice city to visit, but too many people for my liking.  If my house was in SF or vicinity, it'd be worth at least 50mil..LOL.  It was nice to come home to our little acre of paradise in the country.  We had a little BBQ at a condo at a friend of my sister-in-law....about the 23rd floor...about 1000 sq.ft....value?..over 1 mil....incredible cost of living there.

    So far, thank God, life is good.

    It's nice to see you back, Boomer.  I hope things are well.

     

    .

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Javi60. Show Javi60's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    By the way, Iglesias has hit .280 since joining Detroit, and had some of his best fielding plays. He's still hitting .320 for the year and has to be considered in the running for ROY I would think. 



    Great to get Peavy, tough to lose Iglesias... It will be fun to watch him tomorrow...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to ampoule's comment:


    J. Lowrie: age 29, salary: 2.4M

    avg: .294, hr: 10, rbi: 57, runs: 63, obp: .352, slg: .441, games: 127, 2b: 39

     

    S. Drew: age 30, salary: 9.5M

    avg: .248, hr: 10, rbi :53, runs: 47, obp: .333, slg: .428, games: 101, 2b:  22

     

    Sometimes I wonder how things would have been if he hadn't had the broken wrist and mono when he was with us.  Unfortunately, we ran out of patience.

    He's healthy now and doing a whale of a job for the A's.

     



    Lowrie is near the bottom on UZR/150 at SS. Drew is above average this year.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    By the way, Iglesias has hit .280 since joining Detroit, and had some of his best fielding plays. He's still hitting .320 for the year and has to be considered in the running for ROY I would think. 



    3 yrs form now we'll know who won this trade. Is Iggy continuing to hit the way has this year If so then probably an all star or is he a utility guy if he goes back to his career norms and all those bleeders don't continue to find all the holes? Does Peavey help lead the RS far into playoffs and like Hanley will easily be forgotten by RS fans? Have to give Ben credit, because RS have as good a shot as any team at baseball to win it this year, and as we all know those chances to come along all that often. Even if Iggy becomes an all star and RS don't win it this year when the chance presents itself you have to go for it! Go RS!

     

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