A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Hottest players in MLB over the past 30 days (tonight not included):

    258 MLB players with 60 + PAs

    3) Nava  1.122

    24) Midd  .941

    37) Vict   .900

    41) Ortiz  .895

    66) Drew  .854

    73) Napoli .839

    94) Gomes .802

    99) Pedroia .796

    109) Salty   .775

    131) Ells     .744

    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    That's just amazing.  Can they be spurring themselves on?  It feels like it.  They won ugly tonight...which happens when ateam is going great.  I like the way Lava is fitting in.

     

     

     

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In light of tonight's game Moon, is there more ELLS-BERRY In thE future?  I hope it works out better than CRAW-BERRY.  We don't have quite so much money in it.

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Can someone tell me about Corey Hart who several of you have mentioned?

    Critter

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Boston's magic number to clinch the AL East:  16   Laughing

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    In light of tonight's game Moon, is there more ELLS-BERRY In thE future?  I hope it works out better than CRAW-BERRY.  We don't have quite so much money in it.

    Critter



    I'm sorry, I just can't see paying more than $15M a year to ab guy who is currently ranked 10th on the team in OPS (9th if you don't count Iggy).

    I think it should be Shane-Berry or JBJ-Berry.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Can someone tell me about Corey Hart who several of you have mentioned?

    Critter



    Hart will be 32 next March and plays 1B and RF. Two positions that may open up next year, if Ellsbury bolts and Victorino moves to CF, and Napoli walks as well. He has missed all this year with an injury. He may settle on a 1 year deal to "prove he is back" and then to go for the big deal for 2015. Maybe he's the perfect bridge player for us.

    He has hit over 20 HRs in 5 of the previous 6 seasons (24+ four times and 31 once).

    His .334 career OBP does not make him the ideal "Papi protector", but as a 6th or 7th batter in the line-up, he'd be fine. He has had a .500+ SLG% for 3 straight years, so his OPS has been over .840 those 3 seasons.

    His career 162 game numbers:

    .276  26  87 with 42 (2B+3B)  14 SB and an .824 OPS

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Ok tonight is a microcosm of the year.  CF and C out which in itself would throw some teams off.  Starting pitching is terrible.  Pen starts to hold and then club starts to "chip away" except that's not really the right term for what Naps and Vic did, tearing the ball lately after aquiet late summer.  It's almost like this club made a communal decision before the Bal. series to kick some ---- and take some names over the last 30 games.  They don't seem to fear anyone right now.  I hope they can carry whatever "this" is through the playoffs.  I think I predicted 86 wins with this team thinking they didn't have enough star power.  Me of little faith.  Call me completely chastized       Boom and others who called for a liile faith.  How right you were!

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    The last 2 games were just classic Redsox / Yanks with the good guys winning. Just loving this series! And everyone is contributing. Victorino is playing like we will not miss Ellsbury and Middlebrooks is being the guy most of us thought he would be after last year. I think that rib injury he had really affected him more than he was saying.

    This is the guy who could well be our #5 next year.

    i love watching Girardi after the Sox cream a HR or make a great play. He is not digging the Redsox as the better team thing. And he is looking at our farm and the current situation and just shaking his head. Look at all the guys the Yanks basically bought this year and they still suck!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    The streaky Napoli is on the right kind of streak now. In the end it all just about evens out, doesn't it? His OPS is now .819- just .034 from his career number and .007 above last year's number.

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    We do need right handed pop. They may offer Napoli a QO and if he does accept they say "ok, that's fine. We will just go with Naps". I still think he is available cheaper though but just maybe another team will offer him 3/30 so why not give him a QO? This is the first point of the season I've felt this way. The guy does generally finish strong, as a lot of sluggers do.

    When you see a team like this you just don't want to break them up. It was great seeing all these guys with beards smash the ball the heck out of there and come back to win tonight in clean cut Yankee stadium no less, sending the Yanks 10 down. What a contrast. Free spirits vs corporate stiffs. I love it!

    I've been listening to the Yankees feed the past couple days. Even their announcers work the umps, grading them regularly. I wonder if that is a factor in how they call games sometimes, knowing that not only the players will moan about everything but the announcers will call them out regularly even when they get it right since they are such homers.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    The Yankees have a lot of talent but it is often flawed talent. For example, Reynolds dropping that pick on Pedroia's infield hit with the bases loaded, allowing a run to score. The guy can hit HR but that is pretty much all he can do. Guys like Wells who can be great but so often doesn't look like his head is in the game. Even with Texiera back and signing some great FA, I don't see them being necessarily dominant next year. Retaining Soriano might be a net plus though. He's a decent fit.

    They still have aging Jeter who inevitably will fade at some point. Not much help if any from Arod potentially. Their catching situation is horrendous. They've got to be players for McCann I would think. And their farm absolutely sucks. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Oh oh, Ells has a foot injury. ..more serious than they thought?  Does this have off season implications?  Speed is his game and with questions, maybe other teams won't be so quick to jump in...

    Critter

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    We do need right handed pop. They may offer Napoli a QO and if he does accept they say "ok, that's fine. We will just go with Naps". I still think he is available cheaper though but just maybe another team will offer him 3/30 so why not give him a QO? This is the first point of the season I've felt this way. The guy does generally finish strong, as a lot of sluggers do.

    When you see a team like this you just don't want to break them up. It was great seeing all these guys with beards smash the ball the heck out of there and come back to win tonight in clean cut Yankee stadium no less, sending the Yanks 10 down. What a contrast. Free spirits vs corporate stiffs. I love it!

    I've been listening to the Yankees feed the past couple days. Even their announcers work the umps, grading them regularly. I wonder if that is a factor in how they call games sometimes, knowing that not only the players will moan about everything but the announcers will call them out regularly even when they get it right since they are such homers.




    I think Napoli is a good 5 or 6 hitter, but ideally 6 or 7 is better.

     

    I'd like to see:

    1) Victorino

    2) Pedroia

    3) Ortiz

    4) _______

    5) _______

    6) Napoli

    7) Nava/Gomes

    8) Salty/Ross

    9) Boggy/Middlebrooks

    but...

    We will probably see only one big offensive signing and have Boggy and Middlebrooks in the mix at SS/3B/1B. Something like this....

    1) Victorino

    2) Pedroia

    3) Ortiz

    4) _____

    5) RF'er or 1B Napoli Type

    6) Nava/Gomes

    7) Boggy/Middy

    8) Boggy/Middy

    9) Ross/Lava

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    2014 Red Sox Player Payroll Budget (Luxury Tax Dollars)

     

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (team option or $.25M buyout)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $6M Thornton (Club option or $1M buyout)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub TOTAL:

    $107M +$19M options= $126M

     

    Estimated Arbitration (2013 salary):

    $4.5M  Bailey 3 of 3 ($4.1M)

    $2.3M  Morales 3 of 3 ($1.49M)

    $2.2M  Miller 3 of 3 ($1.48M)

    $1.5M  Tazawa 1 of 3 ($0.82M)

    $1.5M  Carp 1 of 3 ($0.51M)

    Estimated Arb Total: $12M

    Estimated Pre-Arb Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava, Villarreal, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Kalish, Bradley, Beato, Berry, Bogaerts, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox

    Payroll Budget:

    $131M with no Lester ($13M) or Thornton ($6M)

    Or

    $144M with Lester and no Thornton

    Or

    $150M with Lester and Thornton

     

     

    2014 FAs

    $13M Napoli (including $5M in bonuses)

    $9.5M Drew

    $9M Ellsbury

    $7.04M Hanrahan

    $4.5M Saltalamacchia

     

    $1.5M McDonald

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The streaky Napoli is on the right kind of streak now. In the end it all just about evens out, doesn't it? His OPS is now .819- just .034 from his career number and .007 above last year's number.

    Sox4ever



    Its the right kind of streak as long as it continues through the playoffs, sure. If he can keep this up he can carry the team a long ways.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The streaky Napoli is on the right kind of streak now. In the end it all just about evens out, doesn't it? His OPS is now .819- just .034 from his career number and .007 above last year's number.

    Sox4ever

     



    Its the right kind of streak as long as it continues through the playoffs, sure. If he can keep this up he can carry the team a long ways.

     



    He's had long good streaks before.

    I'm trying to stay positive.

    Even if he falters, maybe someone else will step it up. That's the way this season has gone so far.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Tough loss today.

    Nice to take 3 of 4.

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

       This is an amazing streak, I think on several levels, for collective egos, confidence of young players, winning in different fashions, non-starters in starting roles, fighting for wins in close games and wild games--all of which wii help in close playoff contests.  And against upper level teams, Balt., Det., NY                   Critter

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

       This is an amazing streak, I think on several levels, for collective egos, confidence of young players, winning in different fashions, non-starters in starting roles, fighting for wins in close games and wild games--all of which wii help in close playoff contests.  And against upper level teams, Balt., Det., NY                   Critter

     



    Yes, Crit. You are 100% right. So many levels.

     

    I look back to August 17th, when Lackey beat Kuroda to end our 3 game skid (and we had lost 6 of the previous 8 games).

    We went on to take...

    2 of 3 at SF

    2 of 3 at LAD

    2 of 3 vs BAL

    3 of 3 vs CWS

    2 of 3 vs DET

    and 3 of 4 at NYY

    Our 5 losses were all pretty close:

    3-2, 2-0, 3-2, 3-0, and 4-3.

     

    Our last 12 game OPS leaders (not counting today):

    1) Napoli  1.326

    2) Lava     1.273

    3) D Nava 1.247

    4) Victorino 1.188

    5) Middlebrooks 1.006

    6) Bogaerts  .975

    7) Ellsbury  .944

    8) D Ross     .928

    9) M Carp     .920

    10) Drew     .920

    11) Ortiz     .802

    12) Pedey  .780

    13) Gomes .722

     

    Last 28 Days (24 games):

    1) Nava  1.235

    2) Lava   1.200

    3) Naps   1.187

    4) Midd   1.011

    5) Vict      .994

    6) Boggy  .860

    7) Pedey  .838

    8) Ortiz    .806

    9) Salty   .757

    10) D Ross .729

    11) Drew   .723

    12) Carp   .697

    13) Ells    .688

    14) Gomes .686

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In comparing Gomes versus Nava, I don't understand why Gomes plays against a lot of RH pitching when Nava clearly hits them better. Overall, Nava has had a much better year also:

     

    Nava    Gomes

    .300      .236   AVE.

    .392      .338   OBP

    .450      .425   SLG

    130       105    wRC+

     

    Gomes has an edge in UZR/150 but Nava has plaed RF quite a bit while Gomes has never been out there this year I don't think. Yet Gomes still has 330 AB, as a guy who primarily is effective against LH pitching.

    Gomes is one heck of an expensive PH / OF reserve who although he has hit better this year against RH pitching in a small sample size. he has historically had acute splits and should be playing against LH pitching only.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In comparing Gomes versus Nava, I don't understand why Gomes plays against a lot of RH pitching when Nava clearly hits them better. Overall, Nava has had a much better year also:

     

    Nava    Gomes

    .300      .236   AVE.

    .392      .338   OBP

    .450      .425   SLG

    130       105    wRC+

     

    Gomes has an edge in UZR/150 but Nava has plaed RF quite a bit while Gomes has never been out there this year I don't think. Yet Gomes still has 330 AB, as a guy who primarily is effective against LH pitching.

    Gomes is one heck of an expensive PH / OF reserve who although he has hit better this year against RH pitching in a small sample size. he has historically had acute splits and should be playing against LH pitching only.



    I think we got Gomes as the "poor man's" version of Cody Ross. Our stuggles vs LHPs have been noted over and over in recent years, and Gomes was signed to address that. He has played vs RHPs more than expected, but Nava missed some time and was needed in RF and at 1B.

    At the start of the season, I stated that a Nava/Gomes platoon might end up being close to helping LF be the leader in positional Sox OBP. Gomes has been one of the best MLB hitters vs LHPs in recent years, and Nava has done a great job vs RHPs.

     

    2013 (career):

    vs RHPs

    Gomes  .776 (.735)

    Nava    .906  (.834)

    (Only Pedey, Ellsbury, Papi and Naps have more PAs vs RHPs than Nava's 347. Gomes has only 154 PAs vs RHPs, and he's actually doing much better than his norm vs RHPs.)

     

    vs LHPs

    Gomes  .753  (.875)

    Nava     .659  (.639)

    (As you can see, Gomes has not lived up to his claim to fame vs LHPs this year, but Nava clearly should hardly ever start vs a RH'd pitcher.)

     

    A league perspective (2010-2013 MLB OF'ers):

    vs RHPs (158 players with 450+ PAs)

    23) Nava .834 

    vs LHPs (142 players with 200+ PAs)

    23) Gomes .866

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moon, I'm surprised at how high Nava and Lava are on your OPS list.  Nava is like the quiet assassin, little choir boy going about his deadly business.  And Lava seems at this point that on both sides of the ball he's ready if we lose Salty.  I'm just amazed at how many players are "emerging" at once.  When we see players like Pedey and Papi falling in OPS, someone steps up.

    Critter

     
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