A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    And our entire starting pitching staff is under contract through next year. We have plenty of cash to fill whatever slots they want, if the FA talent is out there.



    If we stay under the limit (not a certainty), we'll have $30-35M to spend, but we have several slots to fill:

    CF  (JBJ/Victorino?)

    C    (Ross/Lava/Vazquez?)

    1B  (Middlebrooks/Carp/Nava/Papi/Lava?)

    SS  (Bogey?)

    3B  (Middlebrooks- see 1B/Bogey-see SS?)

    IF  (Holt/Snyder/Coyle/Betts?)

    RP (several options)

     

    We will certainly fill some of these slots from within, but my guess is we try and fill at least 3 with free agents or tradees. With $30-35M, it can be done, but not with megastars.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to ampoule's comment:


    Guys, the more I see JBJ play, the more concerned I feel about the future of CF.

    The guy just seem uncomfortable at the plate, and although he's made some real nice plays in center, he's also shown some weakness on breaking on the balls etc.  Granted, he's real young and maybe a little nervous etc., but I feel that X-man, although younger, seems more talented and mature at his position.

    So, it will be VERY interesting to see what eventually happens with Ellsbury.  Initially, I didn't think he'd re-sign with us in a million years.  Yet, with team chemisty the way it is and the way circumstances involved with Pedey's signing went, I suppose it isn't beyond belief that Pedey is trying to convince him to stay.  To be honest, he seems more durable this year and even playing through injuries that, in the past, would have kept him from playing.  Yes, maybe because it's a contract year, yet possibly the whole attitude change on the club is having a very positive influence on everyone.

    In essence, I think that if Ellsbury goes, even though we currently have coverage, the team would be substantially weakened.



    But, the point is, spending half to 2/3rds of our winter spending budget on just one guy like Ellsbury will mean we suffer at other positions of need.

    If he is to get about $17-20M a year x 5 years, that can but a lot of upgrades at several other positions that hopefully can offset the setback from Ellsbury to JBJ/Victorino in CF.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Amp, though I see your concerns as to JBJ, it really is early and he's been up and down after lots of early fanfare.  I don't think it's easy to "grow up" Under the fever of Boston fans.  I think he'll be just fine after the experience of playoff pressure--whether he handles it well or not.  I know without ELLS getting into scoring position we'll have challenges.  But ELLS and Reddick for example had to go through some growing "pains" too.  JBJ will give us something differeAnd and maybe add in other ways.  I don't want to lose ELLS--BUT people have been saying for two years that he would leave.  We need to be ready.  I'm ok with 5/16--maybe 17--but anything above it's thanks and good luck.

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    As great as Salty has been this year, if I were him and he gets a QO, I'm probably taking the $14 mil. Everyone is saying he will get a QO. If we do though I bet he signs and will be back.

    I hope they make a run at Abreu but a smarter choice might just be to offer Napoli a QO and take him back if no one signs him. I would absolutely love getting 3 picks this winter from Ellsbury, Drew and Napoli. It is beyond dreaming for us to get a 4th from Salty. 

    If we slot JBJ and Bogaerts into the lineup that replaces 2. Lavarnway is a good replacement at catcher to me at least. And rolling the dice with Abreu could reap huge dividends without costing us a pick. Imagine 4 picks and a potential mega bopper at 1st with tons of payroll flexibility also:

    Drew - $9.5 mil

    Ellsbury - $9 mil

    Hanrahan - $7 mil

    Napoli - $13 mil

    Salty - $4.5 mil

    Thornton - $6 mil

     

    Total savings: $49 mil

     



    I don't think "everyone" is saying Salty will get a QO.

     

    Also, it is not really $49M to spend. After all the arb signings and the Lester option, I have us at about $30M to spend and stay under the limit.

    We could let Bailey go and trade Dempster to free up more room.



    I'm saying if none of these guys come back it frees up this amount of money. The amounts noted are their contract amounts for this year so it does save that much money, to be used for arb increases and other players for sure but I didn't go into other potential savings either. We should have the cash to do a lot in 2014 assuming the above players move on, which is no doubt a huge assumption.

    What if they all are offered QO and they all take the deals? We would have a problem then but it wouldn't kill us to go over the luxury tax limit. We've done it before and not breaking up this team might actually be a good thing.

    We might get Miller back and Bailey and upgrade the pen right there. Breslow and Koji are all under contract still along with Tazawa and guys like Workman and Britton. We should be ok in the pen with what we have already, and the starters are all coming back. Essentially almost the entire pitching staff is coming back of the guys we care about. No Thornton or Hanrahan.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Amp, I agree with you on Ellsbury. We will really miss that guy if he leaves. JBJ did perform well in the college WS when he was healthy though and he will eventually adjust on those inside pitches and crank a few out also if they keep busting him in. Not sure Fenway is an ideal place for his game though. It looks like they are forcing him to pull and the deep part of the park is unfortunately going to hurt him. I'm going way out there and projecting that they may actually re sign Ellsbury and trade JBJ to a team where his talents could be better utilized. Maybe a Philly or another team with a short RF porch.

    I know the tea leaves all say we will let Ellsbury go and put JBJ in CF, and if I were going to bet on it there is no doubt I would go along with that by at least 2-1 odds but if I were our buddy Ben I would seriously consider trading Mr. Bradley. The opposing teams are going to keep busting him in and he is not optimized for Fenway's CF either since he is not as fast as Ellsbury and it is a deep ballpark. Put him in a ballpark like Milwaukee and JBJ would be gold glove potential.

    I like JBJ a lot and his plate discipline fits our team very well. I guess we can't have everything. I think he will eventually be a .280 hitter with 10-15 HR pop and solid defense. He is never going to be Ellsbury IMO but he should not be far behind. Ellsbury is the stuff that creates championship level teams though. A guy who can still score in close games, get on base and create even when you are facing a Matt Cain...etc. Those types of guys who can "make plays" in championship level games are darn important.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    It will be extremely interesting to see what they do with Abreu. Do they go with what has been a pretty sure thing in Napoli, and just offer him a QO and see what happens? That would seem to make a lot of sense to me. He did defend well and he did put up decent numbers in Fenway. All that said, Abreu is very possibly the most exciting international sign of the last 10 years. An impact player of the Yu Darvish type of impact. A guy who could make us forget about David Ortiz even ( as hard as that is to imagine ). It would possibly bring back the Manny / Ortiz type of killer punch in the middle of the lineup and bring in a guy who should be in his prime just as Manny was when we signed him. A real premium mega slugger.

    Of course, he could also be a guy with a long swing who cleans up on bad pitching but never becomes the player his numbrs indicate in mlb. That could also happen. I do like his chances though when I look at his incredible numbers.

    Who knows what actually happens but the Sox have to be considering that option, especially since teams like NY, Detroit, LA, Philly all are pretty much covered at 1st base. The Sox have got to be kicking those tires.

    But what do they do if they offer Napoli a QO? And he takes it? If the Sox do not offer Napoli a QO, watch to see what happens with Abreu. That would indicate to me at least that they would be going all in on Abreu. 

    My gut tells me they offer Napoli a QO but still play for Abreu, thinking he might need 1/2 year in the minors anyway and if they have to they can trade Napoli at the July break.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Amp, I agree with you on Ellsbury. We will really miss that guy if he leaves. JBJ did perform well in the college WS when he was healthy though and he will eventually adjust on those inside pitches and crank a few out also if they keep busting him in. Not sure Fenway is an ideal place for his game though. It looks like they are forcing him to pull and the deep part of the park is unfortunately going to hurt him. I'm going way out there and projecting that they may actually re sign Ellsbury and trade JBJ to a team where his talents could be better utilized. Maybe a Philly or another team with a short RF porch.

    I know the tea leaves all say we will let Ellsbury go and put JBJ in CF, and if I were going to bet on it there is no doubt I would go along with that by at least 2-1 odds but if I were our buddy Ben I would seriously consider trading Mr. Bradley. The opposing teams are going to keep busting him in and he is not optimized for Fenway's CF either since he is not as fast as Ellsbury and it is a deep ballpark. Put him in a ballpark like Milwaukee and JBJ would be gold glove potential.

    I like JBJ a lot and his plate discipline fits our team very well. I guess we can't have everything. I think he will eventually be a .280 hitter with 10-15 HR pop and solid defense. He is never going to be Ellsbury IMO but he should not be far behind. Ellsbury is the stuff that creates championship level teams though. A guy who can still score in close games, get on base and create even when you are facing a Matt Cain...etc. Thos types of guys who can "make plays" in championship level games are darn important.



    Excellent post Boom.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Just got all caught up on all the posts in the thread and I have some thoughts on the season to date and some of the comments I've read. I've been very busy lately but I have seen every game and my schedule is getting so that I will be better able to keep up with you all going forward.

    The season has far exceeded my expectations; I said in spring training that they would win more than they lose and what an understatement that has proven to be. This team right now has the most solid 25 man roster of any team headed to the playoffs. Farrell has been masterful in the way he has used everyone, keeping players fresh and hungry and Ben has given him weapons to use in every situation; bullpen, pinch-running, pinch-hitting and defensive substitutions. I really like our chances and wish the playoffs could start tomorrow while everyone is so hot!

    As for next season, my signing priorities would be Salty, first and foremost, then make qualifying offers to Ellsbury and Napoli, with a lesser dollar, longer-term offer to Drew. If Pedey and Papi are the heart and soul of this team, and I believe they are, Salty is the next most valuable position player. I don't get the Salty bashers at all, nor do I believe that Lava is even close to Salty, and I certainly would not spend for McCann when I think Salty is just as good and has the confidence of this pitching and coaching staff. I believe that many have assumed all along that Ells was history here, and maybe he is, but the QO guarantees a draft pick if he signs elsewhere, and $13mil, plus a great clubhouse and fan-base and a winning environment could go a ways towards luring he and Napoli to stay for one more year. Unlikely, but possible. We could lose both but we might just keep one (Napoli would be most likely) or both. Drew was signed as a one-year stop-gap, but in my mind has performed at a much higher level than I ever expected and I believe he has won many fans in the front office. He has been a clutch contributor both offensively and especially defensively. 

    As for the pitching staff, I think if they are going to deal a starter, it would be Doubront, with a rotation of Buch, Lester, Lackey, Peavy and Webster, with Dempster as the swing man. I think they like the way Workman and Britton have slid into pen roles and will hope that both can build on that. Thornton, Hanrahan and Bailey are all gone.

    If Ellsbury is gone next season as I suspect he will be, then I foresee a roster where only Pedroia gets as many as 500 at bats. I see and infield rotation of Bogey, Middlebrooks, Drew and Napoli/Carp all surrounding Pedey, and an outfield rotation of Vic, JBJ, Nava, Gomes and Carp. Salty and Ross are still behind the dish, and Lava and Doubront are trade fodder.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Just got all caught up on all the posts in the thread and I have some thoughts on the season to date and some of the comments I've read. I've been very busy lately but I have seen every game and my schedule is getting so that I will be better able to keep up with you all going forward.

    The season has far exceeded my expectations; I said in spring training that they would win more than they lose and what an understatement that has proven to be. This team right now has the most solid 25 man roster of any team headed to the playoffs. Farrell has been masterful in the way he has used everyone, keeping players fresh and hungry and Ben has given him weapons to use in every situation; bullpen, pinch-running, pinch-hitting and defensive substitutions. I really like our chances and wish the playoffs could start tomorrow while everyone is so hot!

    As for next season, my signing priorities would be Salty, first and foremost, then make qualifying offers to Ellsbury and Napoli, with a lesser dollar, longer-term offer to Drew. If Pedey and Papi are the heart and soul of this team, and I believe they are, Salty is the next most valuable position player. I don't get the Salty bashers at all, nor do I believe that Lava is even close to Salty, and I certainly would not spend for McCann when I think Salty is just as good and has the confidence of this pitching and coaching staff. I believe that many have assumed all along that Ells was history here, and maybe he is, but the QO guarantees a draft pick if he signs elsewhere, and $13mil, plus a great clubhouse and fan-base and a winning environment could go a ways towards luring he and Napoli to stay for one more year. Unlikely, but possible. We could lose both but we might just keep one (Napoli would be most likely) or both. Drew was signed as a one-year stop-gap, but in my mind has performed at a much higher level than I ever expected and I believe he has won many fans in the front office. He has been a clutch contributor both offensively and especially defensively. 

    As for the pitching staff, I think if they are going to deal a starter, it would be Doubront, with a rotation of Buch, Lester, Lackey, Peavy and Webster, with Dempster as the swing man. I think they like the way Workman and Britton have slid into pen roles and will hope that both can build on that. Thornton, Hanrahan and Bailey are all gone.

    If Ellsbury is gone next season as I suspect he will be, then I foresee a roster where only Pedroia gets as many as 500 at bats. I see and infield rotation of Bogey, Middlebrooks, Drew and Napoli/Carp all surrounding Pedey, and an outfield rotation of Vic, JBJ, Nava, Gomes and Carp. Salty and Ross are still behind the dish, and Lava and Doubront are trade fodder.



    you don't think big papi will get 500 ABs next year?

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Just got all caught up on all the posts in the thread and I have some thoughts on the season to date and some of the comments I've read. I've been very busy lately but I have seen every game and my schedule is getting so that I will be better able to keep up with you all going forward.

    The season has far exceeded my expectations; I said in spring training that they would win more than they lose and what an understatement that has proven to be. This team right now has the most solid 25 man roster of any team headed to the playoffs. Farrell has been masterful in the way he has used everyone, keeping players fresh and hungry and Ben has given him weapons to use in every situation; bullpen, pinch-running, pinch-hitting and defensive substitutions. I really like our chances and wish the playoffs could start tomorrow while everyone is so hot!

    As for next season, my signing priorities would be Salty, first and foremost, then make qualifying offers to Ellsbury and Napoli, with a lesser dollar, longer-term offer to Drew. If Pedey and Papi are the heart and soul of this team, and I believe they are, Salty is the next most valuable position player. I don't get the Salty bashers at all, nor do I believe that Lava is even close to Salty, and I certainly would not spend for McCann when I think Salty is just as good and has the confidence of this pitching and coaching staff. I believe that many have assumed all along that Ells was history here, and maybe he is, but the QO guarantees a draft pick if he signs elsewhere, and $13mil, plus a great clubhouse and fan-base and a winning environment could go a ways towards luring he and Napoli to stay for one more year. Unlikely, but possible. We could lose both but we might just keep one (Napoli would be most likely) or both. Drew was signed as a one-year stop-gap, but in my mind has performed at a much higher level than I ever expected and I believe he has won many fans in the front office. He has been a clutch contributor both offensively and especially defensively. 

    As for the pitching staff, I think if they are going to deal a starter, it would be Doubront, with a rotation of Buch, Lester, Lackey, Peavy and Webster, with Dempster as the swing man. I think they like the way Workman and Britton have slid into pen roles and will hope that both can build on that. Thornton, Hanrahan and Bailey are all gone.

    If Ellsbury is gone next season as I suspect he will be, then I foresee a roster where only Pedroia gets as many as 500 at bats. I see and infield rotation of Bogey, Middlebrooks, Drew and Napoli/Carp all surrounding Pedey, and an outfield rotation of Vic, JBJ, Nava, Gomes and Carp. Salty and Ross are still behind the dish, and Lava and Doubront are trade fodder.

     



    you don't think big papi will get 500 ABs next year?

     



    He may or he may not.  If he's healthy he'll get his at bats. I was primarily referring to position players with that comment.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    My man Lavarnway as trade fodder! Jidge, you are killing me dude!

    I do recognize that it could happen though. I just hope that it does not.

    I think they keep Doubront though and it could well be that Webster and De Larosa are trade fodder. So far they have not lived up to their billing and other deep starter depth options are emerging or becoming healthy again ( Morales, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, Workman, Britton ...). Even the knuckleballer is handy!

    It's really hard to figure out why Webster and De Larosa are not producing at the mlb level but the Dodgers are not idiots. Maybe they did have a ton of pitching depth and they just really wanted Adrian Gonzalez that bad ( no doubt they did ) but then again maybe they thought they were selling high also.

    Sometimes having the best stuff in the world is still not good enough if you don't have the other necessary attributes. Confidence, intelligence, control in pressure situations...etc.

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I wish we had a time machine and could just move Owens ahead in his development by 2 years. Bring on the WS then!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    My man Lavarnway as trade fodder! Jidge, you are killing me dude!

    I do recognize that it could happen though. I just hope that it does not.

    I think they keep Doubront though and it could well be that Webster and De Larosa are trade fodder. So far they have not lived up to their billing and other deep starter depth options are emerging or becoming healthy again ( Morales, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, Workman, Britton ...). Even the knuckleballer is handy!

    It's really hard to figure out why Webster and De Larosa are not producing at the mlb level but the Dodgers are not idiots. Maybe they did have a ton of pitching depth and they just really wanted Adrian Gonzalez that bad ( no doubt they did ) but then again maybe they thought they were selling high also.

    Sometimes having the best stuff in the world is still not good enough if you don't have the other necessary attributes. Confidence, intelligence, control in pressure situations...etc.

     



    Boom, In order to be decent trade fodder, you have to have some desirable skills. I just don't see him in the same league as Salty. Salty has better hands, frames pitches much better, has quicker feet and a better release, and, most importantly, has the respect of the pitching staff. Offensively Salty has much more power and has learned much better plate discipline this year. I think Salty is on the cusp of maturing into one of the premier catchers in the league for the next 5-7 years. Furthermore, Vasquez and Swihart are about to surpass Lava within the organization, so his value is as high as it will ever be right now.

    As for Doubront, I'm speculating of course. In spite of the axiom "you can never have enough pitching", the rotation looks very crowded next year, so something has to give. This makes the younger pitchers with available options, like Webster and Ruby, more flexible in our situation. I also get a sense that Doubie is not as well-respected within the organization as his numbers, age and potential seem to indicate he should be.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Want to add some retorts to above.  Jid, I like your takes on this season and next but when it comes to latter pitching moves  I differ a bit with you and Boom.  Lackey might be better than Doobie right now, but long term?  You might get more for Lackey now and cut salary.  I think it's way too early to give up on Webster but Ruby throws everything too flat right now--can they get that out of him?  Finally everyone seems real down on Hanrahan.  He hardly pitched and then hurt.  If it didn't kill us why not bring him to be the 8th inning guy and just asking-- who's our closer if IH gets hurt?  Honestly Workman is the only one I would trust and he' a little raw for that job at this point.  And I don't want to fall in love with him as a reliever; in my opinion a great starter there.

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Jid, you're right, Doubs can be irritating and you might be right with front office take, but with young guys coming fast, we can always trade him after next year; some team will want a leftie.  By the way I buy into your impassioned view of Salty.  As Boom says we have some interesting choices coming--and these are good choices.   Just a flashback: this summer when Buch disappeared completely and Lester fell into a black hole, our two best starters were...Lackey and Doubs?

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     


    Guys, the more I see JBJ play, the more concerned I feel about the future of CF.

    The guy just seem uncomfortable at the plate, and although he's made some real nice plays in center, he's also shown some weakness on breaking on the balls etc.  Granted, he's real young and maybe a little nervous etc., but I feel that X-man, although younger, seems more talented and mature at his position.

    So, it will be VERY interesting to see what eventually happens with Ellsbury.  Initially, I didn't think he'd re-sign with us in a million years.  Yet, with team chemisty the way it is and the way circumstances involved with Pedey's signing went, I suppose it isn't beyond belief that Pedey is trying to convince him to stay.  To be honest, he seems more durable this year and even playing through injuries that, in the past, would have kept him from playing.  Yes, maybe because it's a contract year, yet possibly the whole attitude change on the club is having a very positive influence on everyone.

    In essence, I think that if Ellsbury goes, even though we currently have coverage, the team would be substantially weakened.

     



    But, the point is, spending half to 2/3rds of our winter spending budget on just one guy like Ellsbury will mean we suffer at other positions of need.

     

    If he is to get about $17-20M a year x 5 years, that can but a lot of upgrades at several other positions that hopefully can offset the setback from Ellsbury to JBJ/Victorino in CF.




    Moon,  Exercising your expertise with the dollar numbers, do you feel there is any way where we can retain the VAST majority of the present team?  Although I realize that the upgrading/change of the present team is inevitable, it sure woud be nice if we could savor the success it's having.  Sometimes, just minor tweeking would be best.

    Although trying to be realistic, It just saddens to think that some of the team will not be with us next year.

    Actually, it doesn't matter to me how far they go in the post season.  Yes, I hope they go the whole way, but I'm just thankful for what has already transpired.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    We must be old Amp because I feel the same way. It's not about winning it all any more to me. I appreciate the exellence they have already achieved. The testosterone left years ago. It's not all about winning. It's about doing your best and giving a damm. Pedroia is where it's at. That guy strives to be the best he can be every second of the day. And look at what he has accomplished. He's got my vote as the guy most worth watching and if he loses the gold glove vote to Cano, that would just be a huge travesty.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I regret that I will die before I get to see Pedroia manage. He would be great.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    We have so much talent both on the team and on the farm that in a way it is the model for baseball teams going forward. Even with a lot of injuries they still had the best record in baseball. Why? Because they had the best depth in baseball. And parking top guys in AAA ball with options has a lot to do with that. They didn't trade guys like Iglesias and Lavarnway at the beginning of the year. They just called up guys like Britton and Workman. They didn't trade them and they are still there except Iglesias and we have someone even better waiting in the wings now in his slot. And soon we will have Vasquez and Cechinni, Ranaudo, Barnes...etc.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I don't think "everyone" is saying Salty will get a QO.

     

     

    Also, it is not really $49M to spend. After all the arb signings and the Lester option, I have us at about $30M to spend and stay under the limit.

    We could let Bailey go and trade Dempster to free up more room.

     



    I'm saying if none of these guys come back it frees up this amount of money. The amounts noted are their contract amounts for this year so it does save that much money, to be used for arb increases and other players for sure but I didn't go into other potential savings either. We should have the cash to do a lot in 2014 assuming the above players move on, which is no doubt a huge assumption.

     

    What if they all are offered QO and they all take the deals? We would have a problem then but it wouldn't kill us to go over the luxury tax limit. We've done it before and not breaking up this team might actually be a good thing.

    We might get Miller back and Bailey and upgrade the pen right there. Breslow and Koji are all under contract still along with Tazawa and guys like Workman and Britton. We should be ok in the pen with what we have already, and the starters are all coming back. Essentially almost the entire pitching staff is coming back of the guys we care about. No Thornton or Hanrahan.

    I get where you are coming from, but I prefer to look at it like we will have about $30-35M to spend- more if we go over the limit.

    Here's what we will have next year if everyone walks and before anyone is signed as a FA or traded for (assuming we do not take Thornton's $6M option):

      (Red indicates possible position move)

    C: Ross, Lavarnway (Vazquez)

    1B: Carp  Middlebrooks/Nava/Papi/Lava

    2B: Pedroia    Holt

    3B: Middlebrooks (Cechini)  Bogaerts

    SS: Bogaerts/Holt

    LF: Nava/Gomes (Hassan)  Carp

    CF: Bradley (Kalish)  Victorino

    RF: Victorino (Brentz)  Nava/Gomes

    DH: Ortiz  Gomes/Carp

    SP: Buchholz, Lester, Peavy, Lackey, Doubront, Dempster (Webster/Wright/Ranaudo)

    RP: Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Morales, Bailey, Workman (Britton/Villareal/DLR)

     

    .

    Of the FT positions listed here, I see these as the biggest weaknesses, in order:

    1) Catcher

    2) CF (RF if Victorino moves to CF)

    3) 1B (3B if Middlebrooks moves to 1B or SS if Bogey moves to 3B)

    4) RP

     

    We may cut Bailey loose or trade him after arb. We may trade a SP like Dempster to free up salary and a ML pitching slot for a younger player. We may sign a catcher and trade Lava or start to groom him for a 1B/DH/3rd catcher role.

    Ellsbury will get a QO, but I doubt we outbid the most desperate GM out there. (One comp pick)

    Napoli should get a QO. We paid him $13M this year, and he gave us what we hoped for, especially in terms of his career high PAs and RBI totals.

    Drew is a marginal QO player, but I really like the idea of Boggy at 3B and Middy at 1B. Carp would provide good protection in case one falters.

    Salty will probably not need a QO to re-sign, as long as it is 3 years or more, but there is a tiny bit of logic in offering him a 1 year deal at $14M. No longterm risk. Possible bridge to Vazquez and Lava and eventually Swihart or Denny.

    Of the free agents out there, I'm not too impressed:

    C: McCann: I really don't see him as a big upgrade over Salty, and he might cost nearly twice as much. If Salty walks, we may look for a bridge catcher to tandem with Ross like Ruiz, Suzuki (team option),  or J Molina.

    CF/RF: Pence, Choo, Granderson, C Beltran, C Hart (1B too), Morse (1B too), N Cruz, D DeJesus, 

    1B: K Morales, Morneau, Morse, Hart, Loney, Konerko, Reynolds (3B too) and team options: Lind & Berkman.

    RP: Crain, Ballfour, and several others

     

    I think Ben may try hard for Pence and McCann, but possibly Choo, Salty and K Morales.

    If we re-sign Drew, we will not sign a 1Bman (Bogey to 3B/Middy to 1B).

    If we re-sign Napoli, Drew is gone and we go with the kids on the leftside IF.

    If we re-sign Salty, we'll still need a CF/RF and 1B/3B/SS.

     

    It should be an exciting winter.

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    My man Lavarnway as trade fodder! Jidge, you are killing me dude!

    I do recognize that it could happen though. I just hope that it does not.

    I think they keep Doubront though and it could well be that Webster and De Larosa are trade fodder. So far they have not lived up to their billing and other deep starter depth options are emerging or becoming healthy again ( Morales, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, Workman, Britton ...). Even the knuckleballer is handy!

    It's really hard to figure out why Webster and De Larosa are not producing at the mlb level but the Dodgers are not idiots. Maybe they did have a ton of pitching depth and they just really wanted Adrian Gonzalez that bad ( no doubt they did ) but then again maybe they thought they were selling high also.

    Sometimes having the best stuff in the world is still not good enough if you don't have the other necessary attributes. Confidence, intelligence, control in pressure situations...etc.

     



    Webster and DLR have not really had a significant sample size in MLB this year.

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moon,  Exercising your expertise with the dollar numbers, do you feel there is any way where we can retain the VAST majority of the present team?  Although I realize that the upgrading/change of the present team is inevitable, it sure woud be nice if we could savor the success it's having.  Sometimes, just minor tweeking would be best.

     

    Although trying to be realistic, It just saddens to think that some of the team will not be with us next year.

    Actually, it doesn't matter to me how far they go in the post season.  Yes, I hope they go the whole way, but I'm just thankful for what has already transpired.

     

    If we trade Dempster and Bailey and not take Thornton's option, we might have about $50M to spend (assuming we don't have to pay a penny of Dempster's deal). We may be able to get all 4 FAs at:

    Ellsbury ($17M), Salty ($9M), Napoli ($14M), and Drew ($10M)= $50M

    Or, go over the limit by a little if these guys get more than what I listed.

    Losing Dempster, Bailey, Thornton, and Hanrahan will open up some roster spots for our rule 5 guys, and some 25 man slots for our top pitching prospects. We may improve the pitching staff through this suggested  attrition.

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    The A's are building a substancial lead in the West. Interesting.



    Billy Ball Stikes Again!

     
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