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A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I was down on Pence idea, but have warmed slightly...IF Ells goes elsewhere

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    My guess is that Pence is slightly above Choo on Ben's wish list.

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If I had to think of something negative it might be that he's probably more of a free swinger than our guys; might have to learn how to grind out an at bat.  Oh, he can bunt too.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    If I had to think of something negative it might be that he's probably more of a free swinger than our guys; might have to learn how to grind out an at bat.  Oh, he can bunt too.



    The .340 OBP is decent, but not great.

    Choo would make a better leadoff guy, but I think Pence may be Ben's top choice to replace Ellsbury. (moving Shane to CF)

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I have always liked Pence but the Giants definitely want to keep him. He definitely gets a QO. That alone drops hm off our list I bet.

    Southpaw, I guess we are doomed to disagree on almost all levels. I don't do it on purpose. I just seem to disagree across the board. Salty as a "natural catcher?". Lavarnway hasn't played 1st base since little league I bet. And there is no reason to think his power comes back simply by moving to 1st. He hasn't played enough to be tired this year. His power is down because they pitch him on the outside part of the plate almost every pitch. They don't give him much to hit. He's learning to take it to RF and up the middle and he's getting better at it at least this year.

    I don't think Lavarnway is a natural athlete at any position but he is a catcher or he goes to AAA ball forever. When he was in AAA he put up very special numbers for a while there. I think he will come back and he has actually produced pretty well at the mlb level this year. the sample sizes are still pretty small. 

    I'm not giving up on De Larosa or Webster but they are not automatic in my estimation either. It is very possible either or both end up in Manny Del Carmenville. They have better stuff than he ever had. They should make it but they both got bodyslammed in mlb this year while guys like Britton and Workman seemed to perform better even with stuff not nearly as good. They will hopefully continue to get better but how many AAA starters can we keep on the 40 man roster? At some point some of these guys need to produce or be moved. And the clock is ticking.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    My issue with Lava was the same I had with Salty: how long will the learning curve be on handling the staff in a positive way. I gave up on Salty until May of 2012. I'm not giving up on Lava, but it will be hard to give him on-the-job training while remaining competitive.

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from darrylfries. Show darrylfries's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moving Vazquez to AAA  late this year it seems like the sox are pretty high on him.

    Before this year he was a noted defensive catcher however this year he hit about .290 with a high OBP.

    However he had about 25 passed balls while playing in only 96 games in AA.

    Have any of you northners seem him play recently?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    Moving Vazquez to AAA  late this year it seems like the sox are pretty high on him.

    Before this year he was a noted defensive catcher however this year he hit about .290 with a high OBP.

    However he had about 25 passed balls while playing in only 96 games in AA.

    Have any of you northners seem him play recently?



    He only had 12 PBs in 2012 in about the same innings.  I'm not sure if he caught the knuckleballer much this year, but that is a big spike to ponder.

    He also had  a very nice CS% of 46% this year.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from darrylfries. Show darrylfries's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to darrylfries' comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Moving Vazquez to AAA  late this year it seems like the sox are pretty high on him.

    Before this year he was a noted defensive catcher however this year he hit about .290 with a high OBP.

    However he had about 25 passed balls while playing in only 96 games in AA.

    Have any of you northners seem him play recently?

     



    He only had 12 PBs in 2012 in about the same innings.  I'm not sure if he caught the knuckleballer much this year, but that is a big spike to ponder.

     

    He also had  a very nice CS% of 46% this year

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from darrylfries. Show darrylfries's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    Moving Vazquez to AAA  late this year it seems like the sox are pretty high on him.

    Before this year he was a noted defensive catcher however this year he hit about .290 with a high OBP.

    However he had about 25 passed balls while playing in only 96 games in AA.

    Have any of you northners seem him play recently?

     



    He only had 12 PBs in 2012 in about the same innings.  I'm not sure if he caught the knuckleballer much this year, but that is a big spike to ponder.

     

    He also had  a very nice CS% of 46% this year.




    Apparently the Sox arn't concerned that late promotion to AAA just to play in the playoffs had to be a vote of confidence.

    This might have a little influence on signing any catcher for a long term deal.

    i see a one year deal for catcher and keeping Ross next year.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I don't think signing Salty to a 2 or 3 year deal gets in the way of any prospects. If the kids prove they can play, trading a good catcher is as easy as sin. We could get a lot for Salty, or Lava, or which ever kid looks great down the road.

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Watched the RS pound NY tonight--they are just chewing up the AL.  What a strong run.  SPaw, respect your pitching views so happy to see you high on Workman.  He's impressed me this summer.

    Critter

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I like Workman also but think he probably will be a reliever. Or traded to a secondary team who want an innings eater with mediocre performances.

    I do think Workman could very well be a solid 7th-8th inning guy. He just doesn't have the repetoire at this point. He needs a solid 4rd pitch. I love his ability to throw strikes though and his durability. He could be a decent # 4 or 5 but is more likely a reliever for the sox IMO. 

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    JBJR isn't ready for the big time is he? I am glad he is up here getting his experience so his 2014 numbers will be better.... but thankfully we did not have to depend on him this year.



    The sample size is small enough to perhaps be just a slump, and have nothing to do with Major league readiness, but he does seem to need to make some adjustments while on his learning curve.

    He's lucky to be getting a long look during crunch time. I think he is learning everyday. I like JBJ and think he has a lot of potential, but I'm not ready to pencil him in as our starting CF'er next year. He needs to earn it, which isn't easy on a contending team.

    It wouldn't surprise me, if ends up getting traded. I had mentioned his name as part of my suggested offer for J Upton last winter.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I like Workman also but think he probably will be a reliever. Or traded to a secondary team who want an innings eater with mediocre performances.

    I do think Workman could very well be a solid 7th-8th inning guy. He just doesn't have the repetoire at this point. He needs a solid 4rd pitch. I love his ability to throw strikes though and his durability. He could be a decent # 4 or 5 but is more likely a reliever for the sox IMO. 



    I'm not sure every pitcher needs a 4th pitch to be a very good pitcher in MLB, but I agree, it would help.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    You don't need a fourth pitch to come out of the pen (Mo Rivera) and the sox are in a position to allow their younger starters to earn their stripes coming out of the pen while waiting for spots in the rotation to open up. Dempster, Peavy and Lester deals are done after 2014, assuming they exercize Lester's option, and it's reasonable to expect that only Lester will be retained beyond 2014. People forget that pretty good pitchers like Koufax and Pedro Martinez did their apprenticeships in the bullpen before earning spots in the starting rotation. We are in a very enviable position amongst MLB teams with our current pitching depth, so much so that we could be in a position of trading from strength or being able to handle a prospect or two becoming duds, or both.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    You don't need a fourth pitch to come out of the pen (Mo Rivera) and the sox are in a position to allow their younger starters to earn their stripes coming out of the pen while waiting for spots in the rotation to open up. Dempster, Peavy and Lester deals are done after 2014, assuming they exercize Lester's option, and it's reasonable to expect that only Lester will be retained beyond 2014. People forget that pretty good pitchers like Koufax and Pedro Martinez did their apprenticeships in the bullpen before earning spots in the starting rotation. We are in a very enviable position amongst MLB teams with our current pitching depth, so much so that we could be in a position of trading from strength or being able to handle a prospect or two becoming duds, or both.



    Agreed, and you don't really need 4 pitches to be a starter either... as long as you have 3 good ones.

    Here's a look at all the pitchers we have under team control next year:

    Buchholz

    Lester (team option)

    Peavy

    Lackey

    Doubront

    Dempster

    Morales

    Webster

    Ranaudo

    Wright

    Barnes

    Owens

    _______

     

    Uehara

    Tazawa

    Breslow

    Thornton (team option)

    Bailey

    Miller

    Workman (SP?)

    Britton  (SP?)

    Villareal

    de la Rosa

    Wilson

    Beato

    Martin

    Hernandez

    A Carter

     

    There's a lot of choices here.

     

     

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Some interesting pitching factoids:

    1) Peavy is already 9th in team IP at 51.2.

    2) Uehara is a God. (No that is not an opinion.)

    3) Uehara has an ERA+ of 391, which is over a 100 better than Buch.

    4) We have 5 starters with a 100 or more ERA+ and 3 relievers with 150+.

    5) Back to Uehara: opponents have a .393 OPS against him with a .163 OBP.

    6) The league average OPS against is .728. The Sox have just one pitcher with over 40 IP above that mark (Dempster at .778).

    7) Buch has a 79% Quality Start number, Lackey 67, Peavy 63, Lester 61, Doubront 58, and Dempster 46%.

    8) IP/GS: Buch 6.8, Lester 6.5, Peavy 6.5, Lackey 6.5, Demp 5.8, Doub 5.7

    9) WHIP: Ueh 0.562, Buch 1.007, Peavy 1.084, Bresl 1.145, Taz 1.163,

    Lack 1.193, Doubr 1.416, Demp 1.463

    10) Inherited Runner Scored Percent (20+ IRs or 39+ IP): Workman 9%, Miller 22%, Uehara 32%, Bres 32%, Tazawa 32% (League 30%).

    11) Pitches per PA: Lackey 3.7, Buch 3.8, Lest 3.9, Demp 4.0, Doub 4.0.

    12) K/9: Miller 14.1, Uehara 12.5, Bailey 12.2, de la Torre 11.9, Workman 10.2, Tazawa 9.5, Buch 8.5, Demp 8.4, Doub 7.9, Lack 7.6, Lest 7.4... Peavy 5.6

    13) K/BB: Uehara 10.44, Tazawa 5.75, Lackey 4.00

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Our top 9 guys by PAs all have an OPS over .758.

    Our number 11 guy, Iggy was at .785, and our #12 guy Carp, is at .921.

    We have 7 guys over .779 and 440 PAs.

     

    In contrast, the Tigers have 2 of their top 9 PAs guys at .688.

    Their 10, 11, & 12 PA guys are between .609 and .731.

    The Tigers have 3 guys over .779 and 440 PAs, but have Peralta .822/436 PAs and Infante  .784/431 close by. Still, that would make only 5 to our 7.

     

    Balance has been our key.

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Well Boom IF that kid Workman gets into the starting rotation next year, I say he gets as many wins as whoever gets the most this year among Doobie, Lackey, or Dempster.  If he's a starter and doesn't do that, then I'll buy you two Maine lobsters, and if you don't live too far away, I'll cook them too.  I'm no Polly when it comes to this kid.

    Critter

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Well Boom IF that kid Workman gets into the starting rotation next year, I say he gets as many wins as whoever gets the most this year among Doobie, Lackey, or Dempster.  If he's a starter and doesn't do that, then I'll buy you two Maine lobsters, and if you don't live too far away, I'll cook them too.  I'm no Polly when it comes to this kid.

    Critter



    I still think Owens and Ranaudo are our two prime pitching prospects. Webster is 3rd in my book.

    Although soxprospects.com has barnes ahead of Workman, I'd call them about tied. Ball and Britton are in the same area on soxprospects.com.

    Some are closer to ML ready than others, but here's how soxprospects.com rates the pitchers:

    3) Owens

    5) Webster

    6) Ranaudo

    7) Barnes

    9) Ball

    10) Workman

    11) Britton

    14) Johnson

    15) Stankiewicz

    19) Luis Diaz

    23) Buttrey

    24) Callahan

    26) Wilson

    33) Kukuk

    34) Gomez

    35) Mercedes

    36) Light

    37) McGrath

    39) Huntzinger

    41) M Smith

    45) C Martin

    46) S Wright

    47) K Couch

    48) N Ramirez

    49) M Pena

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Well Boom IF that kid Workman gets into the starting rotation next year, I say he gets as many wins as whoever gets the most this year among Doobie, Lackey, or Dempster.  If he's a starter and doesn't do that, then I'll buy you two Maine lobsters, and if you don't live too far away, I'll cook them too.  I'm no Polly when it comes to this kid.

    Critter



    Polly... er..I mean Crit! Cool ( I'm just kidding Crit..I'm the biggest Polly here and we are just now leaning at the finish line. We are both Pollys! )

    I agree that Workman is a great young pitcher. I like him a lot. I believe I have been one of his biggest and earliest advocates here but he doesn't have a lot of pitches in his bag of tricks and the 2nd and 3rd time through a lineup are not going to be friendly for him!

    All that said the guy throws strikes and he should be durable as heck. And if he can maintain his level of control can he be a Bronson Arroyo round 2? Of course he can. Some guys can live off their fastball command forever. And I do like his curve as well. I believe he has a little bit of a cutter going on as well if I remember correctly. I'm not disagreeing that he could be a decent starter. I'm saying for us, with really 6 veteran starters already under contract for next year, not counting Morales or any of the other prospects really, I think Workman is going to have a hard time working into the rotation. I also think he is better suited to the pen right now. Maybe even as a 7th or 8th inning guy though. He is of substantial value.

    Those numbers Moon cited above for Workman are pretty cool. If he doesn't allow many inherited runners to score that is a very good thing. I like his mental toughness.

    His underlying data is better than his current ERA. He is probably under rated by most people here I bet.

    Which brings me to a point which needs to be said. Soxprospects is clearly the best resource we have in evaluating prospects but they are not always correct either are they. Remember Lars Anderson? Yamaico Navaro? Lin? Lots of guys who were in favor but never really lived up to the billing and others who were talented ( like Workman IMO ) who were never given enough credit. I'd add Lavarnway and Nava to that list also and of course there are more. Iglesias even. I don't think Nava ever cracked the top 10 and when I advocated for him it was an avalanche of "forget about him. He's too old. He'll never make it". And the guy keep hitting .340 every year with extremely good obp.

    Workman never cracked much into the top 10 for them either as far as I can tell but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he tops everyone they have down there except Owens. I'm not projecting that but it wouldn't surprise me if that happened. I'm not ruling Webster out but if he can't keep his pitches down all the time he is going to get hammered. Rubby has the best change up in the organization except Buchholz but if he doesn't have better fastball command he will never even make it as a good reliever. Barnes needs to develop his secondary stuff a lot. Ranaudo needs work on his secondary stuff also. Some guys never, ever get it no matter how auspicious their beginnings. 

    I like Trey Ball a lot also but there is no way he would have been my top pick. He pitched in Indiana against light weight competition and he is just flat out a very high risk, high reward type guy. Too risky in my opinion for a #7 pick. Hopefully we will strike lightning. I'd like to remain a Polly for years to come!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    RP, yes soxprospects has gotten some guys way way wrong, but for the most part, they have been pretty close.

    As far as I can tell, Workman started out at #19 back in 9/10 and got as high as #14 in 2011 and #11 in 2012. He started this year out at #14 and on June 13 was rated #11. He was recently bumped up to #10.

    I looked back as far as 2003 to see if any soxprospects.com players ranked 10 or below made it to a significant major league level of play. 

    2003: Manny Delcarmen was rated #20. 

    2004: David Murphy was #20 & Anibal Sanchez #13, & Shoppach was #10  as Delcarmen rose to #8.

    2005: Lowrie started at #14 & Ellsbury #13 as Murphy rose to #11 and Delcarmen fell back to #13.

    2006: Lowrie rose to #7. Ells to #1 & Delcarmen to #5, Doubront started at #14 & Lars at 12.

    2007: Doubront started at #16 then fell off the list. Kottaras was #19. Middlebrooks started at 12 and Reddick 11.

    2008: Reddick started at 12 & Middlebrooks 10. Doubront showed up at 16 and Kalish broke in at #12 by September and Weiland #15.

    2009: Middlebrooks started at 19, Stephen Fife at 18.

    2010: Doubront made it to 6, Kalish to 3, Reddick to 8 and Middy to 10.

    2011: Kalish and Middy made it to #1, Doubront 3 and Lava to 9.

     

    The  top 3 ranked players since 2003 (3 rankings per year)?

    2003: F Sanchez, Youkilis, Lester, J. de la Rosa (Shopp 4)

    2004: H Ramirez, Youkilis, Lester, B Moss, Pedroia, Shopp, A Alvarez (Paps 4)

    2005: H Ramirez, Papelbon, Lester, B Moss, Pedroia, A Sanchez

    2006: Ellsbury, Lester, Paps, Buchholz, C Hansen, M Bowden (Pedey 4)

    2007: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden (Masterson, Lars, Pedey 4)

    2008: Buchholz, Masterson, Lars, Ells, Bowden, Lowrie, Reddick

    2009: Lars, C Kelly, Reddick, Bowden, Kalish, Bard (Westmoreland4)

    2010: C Kelley, Reddick, Kalish, Lars, Rizzo

    2011: Kalish, Middy, Iggy, Ranaudo, Doubront (Britton/Bogey 4)

    2012: Middy, Bogey, Barnes, Ranaudo, JBJ (Iggy/Webster 4)

    2013: Bogey, JBJ, Webster, Barnes, Owens (Cecchini 4)

     

    Not really that many misses here.

    I count about 23 different players ranked 1 to 2 from 2003 to 2010.

    Only 5 have not done much: A Alvarez, Bowden, C Hansen, Lars & Kelly

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
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