A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Hey Boom, you taught me how to be a Polly.  I don't think I'll have to come up with the lobsters because he probably will be a reliever next year.  But I don't think you guys give him enough love. Here's what I think I saw this summer.  Every time he was given a start he pitched a tight close game, giving the team a solid chance to win.  Seems like his record was about 2-3, but that was more about runs scored than his pitching.  I don't remember a bad game.  I recall him being called in long relief a couple times and pulling the game out after someone else's poor start.  I do recall one bad outing but I honestly thought Farrell--who has made few mistakes--really put him in a bad place where he didn't belong, and the next day the Boston beat writers said the same.  he seems poised, tough, a bit of a bull  dog.  I liked Webster too, but he seemed "on" this game and "off" next game, like a Typical young pitcher.  Workman seemed more matture.  Right now he is doing it and those other guys are just potential.  I may be blowing him up too much but He may be my favorite "new" player--like Iggy was before the trade.  He got those fast balls and curves over for strikes...                       Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    That post above is really interesting Moon.  it's fun to see those names in the near past and ponder what they've done.  I was all about Bowden too-- saw that big body and thought he could have it all--alas, he could never put it all together.  I loved Masterson too.  We've really a few guys doing well for other teams...Thanks for that look...

    Critter

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    That post above is really interesting Moon.  it's fun to see those names in the near past and ponder what they've done.  I was all about Bowden too-- saw that big body and thought he could have it all--alas, he could never put it all together.  I loved Masterson too.  We've really a few guys doing well for other teams...Thanks for that look...

    Critter

     



    This was just 2009!

     

    2009: Lars, C Kelly, Reddick, Bowden, Kalish, Bard (Westmoreland 4)

     

    All gone now.... well, kalish is here but never here.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    RP, yes soxprospects has gotten some guys way way wrong, but for the most part, they have been pretty close.

    As far as I can tell, Workman started out at #19 back in 9/10 and got as high as #14 in 2011 and #11 in 2012. He started this year out at #14 and on June 13 was rated #11. He was recently bumped up to #10.

    I looked back as far as 2003 to see if any soxprospects.com players ranked 10 or below made it to a significant major league level of play. 

    2003: Manny Delcarmen was rated #20. 

    2004: David Murphy was #20 & Anibal Sanchez #13, & Shoppach was #10  as Delcarmen rose to #8.

    2005: Lowrie started at #14 & Ellsbury #13 as Murphy rose to #11 and Delcarmen fell back to #13.

    2006: Lowrie rose to #7. Ells to #1 & Delcarmen to #5, Doubront started at #14 & Lars at 12.

    2007: Doubront started at #16 then fell off the list. Kottaras was #19. Middlebrooks started at 12 and Reddick 11.

    2008: Reddick started at 12 & Middlebrooks 10. Doubront showed up at 16 and Kalish broke in at #12 by September and Weiland #15.

    2009: Middlebrooks started at 19, Stephen Fife at 18.

    2010: Doubront made it to 6, Kalish to 3, Reddick to 8 and Middy to 10.

    2011: Kalish and Middy made it to #1, Doubront 3 and Lava to 9.

     

    The  top 3 ranked players since 2003 (3 rankings per year)?

    2003: F Sanchez, Youkilis, Lester, J. de la Rosa (Shopp 4)

    2004: H Ramirez, Youkilis, Lester, B Moss, Pedroia, Shopp, A Alvarez (Paps 4)

    2005: H Ramirez, Papelbon, Lester, B Moss, Pedroia, A Sanchez

    2006: Ellsbury, Lester, Paps, Buchholz, C Hansen, M Bowden (Pedey 4)

    2007: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden (Masterson, Lars, Pedey 4)

    2008: Buchholz, Masterson, Lars, Ells, Bowden, Lowrie, Reddick

    2009: Lars, C Kelly, Reddick, Bowden, Kalish, Bard (Westmoreland4)

    2010: C Kelley, Reddick, Kalish, Lars, Rizzo

    2011: Kalish, Middy, Iggy, Ranaudo, Doubront (Britton/Bogey 4)

    2012: Middy, Bogey, Barnes, Ranaudo, JBJ (Iggy/Webster 4)

    2013: Bogey, JBJ, Webster, Barnes, Owens (Cecchini 4)

     

    Not really that many misses here.

    I count about 23 different players ranked 1 to 2 from 2003 to 2010.

    Only 5 have not done much: A Alvarez, Bowden, C Hansen, Lars & Kelly

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever



    that's for the top 2 picks only though Moon. When a guy reaches #1 or 2 he should generally be something. Maybe not a star but an mlb level player for more than a year or 2.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I'm not trying to be critical of them either. I'm just saying they are not the gospel any more than baseball america is or other top sites. They are a tremendous resource but sometimes even real solid guys get overlooked and like every forum I've ever seen there is a herd mentality where some of the leaders say one thing and most people fall in line. 

    Like here Moon. You are like EF Hutton. You talk and everyone listens!

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    Hey Boom, you taught me how to be a Polly.  I don't think I'll have to come up with the lobsters because he probably will be a reliever next year.  But I don't think you guys give him enough love. Here's what I think I saw this summer.  Every time he was given a start he pitched a tight close game, giving the team a solid chance to win.  Seems like his record was about 2-3, but that was more about runs scored than his pitching.  I don't remember a bad game.  I recall him being called in long relief a couple times and pulling the game out after someone else's poor start.  I do recall one bad outing but I honestly thought Farrell--who has made few mistakes--really put him in a bad place where he didn't belong, and the next day the Boston beat writers said the same.  he seems poised, tough, a bit of a bull  dog.  I liked Webster too, but he seemed "on" this game and "off" next game, like a Typical young pitcher.  Workman seemed more matture.  Right now he is doing it and those other guys are just potential.  I may be blowing him up too much but He may be my favorite "new" player--like Iggy was before the trade.  He got those fast balls and curves over for strikes...                       Critter

     



    I kind of am agreeing Crit. I did say he might end up being one of our top 2 current pitching prospects ( see above ). I gave Owens an edge and one or 2 of the other guys may well top him just from sheer numbers but I think he is right there with Ranaudo, Barnes, Webster, De Larosa. His stuff may not be as good but he should be durable and the guy throws strikes. Something the other guys have not learned yet.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    To me Workman has been under rated ever since we drafted him. It happens sometimes.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    RP, yes soxprospects has gotten some guys way way wrong, but for the most part, they have been pretty close.

    As far as I can tell, Workman started out at #19 back in 9/10 and got as high as #14 in 2011 and #11 in 2012. He started this year out at #14 and on June 13 was rated #11. He was recently bumped up to #10.

    I looked back as far as 2003 to see if any soxprospects.com players ranked 10 or below made it to a significant major league level of play. 

    2003: Manny Delcarmen was rated #20. 

    2004: David Murphy was #20 & Anibal Sanchez #13, & Shoppach was #10  as Delcarmen rose to #8.

    2005: Lowrie started at #14 & Ellsbury #13 as Murphy rose to #11 and Delcarmen fell back to #13.

    2006: Lowrie rose to #7. Ells to #1 & Delcarmen to #5, Doubront started at #14 & Lars at 12.

    2007: Doubront started at #16 then fell off the list. Kottaras was #19. Middlebrooks started at 12 and Reddick 11.

    2008: Reddick started at 12 & Middlebrooks 10. Doubront showed up at 16 and Kalish broke in at #12 by September and Weiland #15.

    2009: Middlebrooks started at 19, Stephen Fife at 18.

    2010: Doubront made it to 6, Kalish to 3, Reddick to 8 and Middy to 10.

    2011: Kalish and Middy made it to #1, Doubront 3 and Lava to 9.

     

    The  top 3 ranked players since 2003 (3 rankings per year)?

    2003: F Sanchez, Youkilis, Lester, J. de la Rosa (Shopp 4)

    2004: H Ramirez, Youkilis, Lester, B Moss, Pedroia, Shopp, A Alvarez (Paps 4)

    2005: H Ramirez, Papelbon, Lester, B Moss, Pedroia, A Sanchez

    2006: Ellsbury, Lester, Paps, Buchholz, C Hansen, M Bowden (Pedey 4)

    2007: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden (Masterson, Lars, Pedey 4)

    2008: Buchholz, Masterson, Lars, Ells, Bowden, Lowrie, Reddick

    2009: Lars, C Kelly, Reddick, Bowden, Kalish, Bard (Westmoreland4)

    2010: C Kelley, Reddick, Kalish, Lars, Rizzo

    2011: Kalish, Middy, Iggy, Ranaudo, Doubront (Britton/Bogey 4)

    2012: Middy, Bogey, Barnes, Ranaudo, JBJ (Iggy/Webster 4)

    2013: Bogey, JBJ, Webster, Barnes, Owens (Cecchini 4)

     

    Not really that many misses here.

    I count about 23 different players ranked 1 to 2 from 2003 to 2010.

    Only 5 have not done much: A Alvarez, Bowden, C Hansen, Lars & Kelly

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     



    that's for the top 2 picks only though Moon. When a guy reaches #1 or 2 he should generally be something. Maybe not a star but an mlb level player for more than a year or 2.

     



    No, I listed all players that made it to number 1, 2 or 3 as well as a few #4s of note.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I'm not trying to be critical of them either. I'm just saying they are not the gospel any more than baseball america is or other top sites. They are a tremendous resource but sometimes even real solid guys get overlooked and like every forum I've ever seen there is a herd mentality where some of the leaders say one thing and most people fall in line. 

    Like here Moon. You are like EF Hutton. You talk and everyone listens!



    Of course nobody is perfect at projecting prospects. If they were, they'd be working for a team, not soxprospects.com or Baseball America.

    By and large, soxprospects does a pretty good job, and like you said, they are an excellent resource. The ones they got wrong, like Lars, they were not alone. Most services had Lars up pretty high among other Sox prospects.

    Their current top 10:

    1) Bogey

    2) Bradley  (I'd place him #4)

    3) Owens (I'd place him #2)

    4) Cecchini (I'd put him at #3)

    5) Webster (#7)

    6) Ranaudo (#5)

    7) Barnes (#8)

    8) Swihart (#9)

    9) Ball  (No idea)

    10) Workman (#10)

    (I'd have Betts to #6)

     

    Here's a look at some of the biggest gainers in ranking:

     

    Top 20 only

    Luis Diaz NR>19

    Betts 53>12

    Vazquez 25>13

    Owens 9>3

    Workman 14>10

    Britton 15>11

     

    The Next 20:

    Wendell Rijo NR>22

    Almanzar 47>27

    Hassan 35>21 (some here wanted this guy booted off the 40 man)

    Buttrey 28>23

    H Ramos NR>30

    S Gomez NR>34

    McGrath NR>37

     

    The Biggest fallers:

    Brentz 6>17

    Marrero 11>16

    Barnes 3>7

    de la Cruz 17>29

    Wilson 16>26 (pitched pretty well in MLB this year)

    Light 21>36

    Kukuk 23>33

    Holt 24>32

    Lin 29>38

    Hazelbaker 33>40

     

     

     

     

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here's an amazing look at our recent streak:

    Since Aust 24th at LAD, we are 17-5.

    However, here are the scores of our 5 losses:

    3-2 Bal

    3-0 Det

    4-3 NYY

    4-3 TBR

    3-2 Bal

    Even our previous 2 losses before these 5 were at these numbers:

    2-0 @ LAD

    3-2 @ SFG

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    When Dempster is moved to the pen for the playoffs, I think he might make a fine long relief guy, although hopefully we won't need a long guy.

    His last 9 starts...

    9/17  4.1 IP with 0 ERs

    9/11  5.0 IP with 1 ER

    9/4    2.1 IP with 0 ERs

    8/30  4.1 IP with 0 ERs (6 IP w 1 ER)

    8/18  2.1 IP with 2 ERs

    8/13  4.2 IP with 0 ERs (7 IP with 1 ER)

    8/7    2.1 IP with 0 ERs (5.1 IP with 2 ER)

    8/1    2.1 IP with 1 ER  (4.1 IP w 2 ERs)

    7/27  4.0 with 0 ERs (5.0 with 1 ER)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Didn't realize Swihart was rated higher than Vasquez.  Why do you think that is?  Higher hitting ceiling?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Didn't realize Swihart was rated higher than Vasquez.  Why do you think that is?  Higher hitting ceiling?



    I guess so, they have Swihart scaled at 3-7 and Vazquez 2-5. Vazquez is 23 and Swihart 21. Swihart had a .794 OPS at Salem and Vazquez .766 at Por/Paw.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Swihart is an excellent athlete. i like him as a top 5-6 prospect even. I like the concept of putting a real athlete at catcher. A guy who should be able to hit well and field well above average. 

    It will be interest to see who even makes the PO roster. We are going to have to drop a few people. Morales? Workman? Britton? There are no guarantees.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moon, don't mean to bother your thread, but if the Rays wind up 10 games behind the Sox, that woud mean all of the East would be double-digits behind the Sox. Do you know if that has happened before? It's pretty amazing, especially when this year it was thought to be such a tough division. Just curious if you know. Thanks. :)

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Looks like we have guys on the major league roster as well as chips below to get a good power hitter AND upgrade starters if we want...

    Critter

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Looks like we have guys on the major league roster as well as chips below to get a good power hitter AND upgrade starters if we want...

    Critter



    I know Ben likes his kids, but I would not be surprised if we pull off a shocker this winter to get a real big bopper for the middle of our order (more likely), or a true ace for our staff (less likely now, maybe more likely next winter).

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Having watched both Swihart and Vasquez play, I can't think of any reason that Vasquez would not be rated higher beyond the two years age difference. I've never seen him make a bad play, but Vasquez does have a lot of passed balls; not sure if some of that is from catching knucklers. I can guarantee that no catcher in the entire organization throws as well as Vasquez. Between the two of these guys, and the likelyhood that Salty will be extended, Lavarnway becomes expendable this off-season.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    Looks like we have guys on the major league roster as well as chips below to get a good power hitter AND upgrade starters if we want...

    Critter

     



    I know Ben likes his kids, but I would not be surprised if we pull off a shocker this winter to get a real big bopper for the middle of our order (more likely), or a true ace for our staff (less likely now, maybe more likely next winter).

     



    Moon, beyond Stanton, who might that bopper be? I know nothing about the Cuban that Boom writes about often, but he wouldn't cost any prospects. Stanton comes with a big red flag in my opinion; he leads MLB in errors among outfielders, in spite of missing lots of time. Pence doesn't excite me. I really don't follow the weaker teams enough to know who might fit the bopper discription. I think much of this year's team comes back next year as is and any blockbuster deal would have ramifications for 2015 and beyond.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

     

    10) Inherited Runner Scored Percent (20+ IRs or 39+ IP): Workman 9%, Miller 22%, Uehara 32%, Bres 32%, Tazawa 32% (League 30%).

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    Guessing Thornton & Morales don't have enough IP? ...Or are you just trying to make us all feel better? ;)

    I wonder if we could use Dempster as short relief or long relief, or rather, whatever comes first? 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Jid, I'm not trying to talk you into Pence if you've already decided but if you haven't watched him much, you may want to check him out a little more.  I used to feel the same way as you but as I've seen him the last couple of years here in the Bay, he's grown on me.  talked about him a few posts back, athletic, good defender, good base runner and bunter.  Think he would fit perfectly with our guys.  Seems to get the hit when you need it.  Has multiple skills that affect a game.

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Jid, I'm not trying to talk you into Pence if you've already decided but if you haven't watched him much, you may want to check him out a little more.  I used to feel the same way as you but as I've seen him the last couple of years here in the Bay, he's grown on me.  talked about him a few posts back, athletic, good defender, good base runner and bunter.  Think he would fit perfectly with our guys.  Seems to get the hit when you need it.  Has multiple skills that affect a game.

    Critter



    i like pence but think he is a bit overrated. i would rather have jacoby than Pence. jacoby does more to help the team win and makes others better.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

     

     

    Looks like we have guys on the major league roster as well as chips below to get a good power hitter AND upgrade starters if we want...

    Critter

     

     



    I know Ben likes his kids, but I would not be surprised if we pull off a shocker this winter to get a real big bopper for the middle of our order (more likely), or a true ace for our staff (less likely now, maybe more likely next winter).

     

     

     



    Moon, beyond Stanton, who might that bopper be? I know nothing about the Cuban that Boom writes about often, but he wouldn't cost any prospects. Stanton comes with a big red flag in my opinion; he leads MLB in errors among outfielders, in spite of missing lots of time. Pence doesn't excite me. I really don't follow the weaker teams enough to know who might fit the bopper discription. I think much of this year's team comes back next year as is and any blockbuster deal would have ramifications for 2015 and beyond.

     



    I don't think of Pence, Choo, Ellsbury, Napoli, K Morales or any FA as a "big bopper. If we end up with Pence, Salty and Napoli and get upticks from Bogey and Middy, maybe that makes up for the loss of Ellsbury, but I'm really hoping we can somehow land a big bopper without losing Bogey or Owens.

    Stanton is the obvious choice, but will be super costly due to his low salary, age,  and years of team control. Beyond him, I don't see many "available" players.

    Here are the leaders in SLG from 2012-2013 (500+ PAs):

    .627  Miggy  Not available: Nope

    .582  Ortiz

    .576  C David  N/A  Nope

    .569  Braun (Roidman)

    .567  Trout  (Would take the world to pry him from the Angels)

    .553  Stanton

    .546  Encarnacion  (A long shot possibility)

    .545  C Gonzalez (How good away from Colo?)

    .545  B Moss  (How come we can never get guys like him?)

    .538  McCutchen  (I lobbied for him years ago: a slight chance now.)

    .535  A Beltre  Very slight chance.

    .533  R Cano  (Can he play 3B?)

    .524  Goldschmidt N/A

    .524  Votto  N/A

    .521  Tulo

    .516  Cuddyer

    .512  A Hill  Doubt it

    .510 Bautista

    .509  Posey  N/A

    .508  A Ramirez

    .507  C Hart  A FA gamble

    .506  Hamilton (Don't want him)

    .504  J Bruce

    .503  Longoria  N/A

    .502  A Jones N/A

    .501  Wright  N/A

    .500  HanRam

    .498  Quentin

    .495  C Beltran, .493 A Soriano, .493 Fielder, .493 Ludwick...

    others

    .491  E Chavez

    .486  Kemp

    .482  S Harrison

    .481 C Gomez

    .481 N Cruz

    .481 Trumbo

    .481  Ibanez

    .479  Napoli

    .478  Grandy

    .474  C Ruiz

    .471  G Jones

    .471 AJ Pierz.

    .471 A Rios

    .467 C Carter

    .466  B Butler

    .465  Willingham

    .461 Venable

    .460 Utley

    .460  K Morales

    .460  Mauer

    .459  Pence

    .453 C Johnson

    .453  Choo

    .453  Headley

    .453 M Byrd

    .452  Salty

    .452  Dunn

    .445  A Gordon

    .444  Ethier

    .443 Fowler

     

    I don't see many choices here

     

     

     

    .

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Jid, I'm not trying to talk you into Pence if you've already decided but if you haven't watched him much, you may want to check him out a little more.  I used to feel the same way as you but as I've seen him the last couple of years here in the Bay, he's grown on me.  talked about him a few posts back, athletic, good defender, good base runner and bunter.  Think he would fit perfectly with our guys.  Seems to get the hit when you need it.  Has multiple skills that affect a game.

    Critter



    Crit, when I say he doesn't excite me that doesn't mean I don't think he can play. I simply haven't seen enough of him to get me excited. We've gotten a ton of production, very quietly and effeciently, from our outfield platoons, so it's going to take a big-time individual performance to improve upon that. And if you have to give much up to replace what we already have, I just don't see the value.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III


    Red Sox 2013 is a team of destiny? It will add a new sabermetric of Chemistry of teams with beards. Farrell has set the precedent and managed the game to perfection. He made all the right moves, you can call him little lucky at times. I am beginning to think maybe Ben was the mastermind, not Theo.  Piching wins World Series and appears Sox are built for the World Series.

     I'm waiting by the mailbox for my tickets!

     

     

    BDC member since 12/13/2004 "Can you believe it?"

     
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