A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

     

    10) Inherited Runner Scored Percent (20+ IRs or 39+ IP): Workman 9%, Miller 22%, Uehara 32%, Bres 32%, Tazawa 32% (League 30%).

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    Guessing Thornton & Morales don't have enough IP? ...Or are you just trying to make us all feel better? ;)

    I wonder if we could use Dempster as short relief or long relief, or rather, whatever comes first? 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Jid, I'm not trying to talk you into Pence if you've already decided but if you haven't watched him much, you may want to check him out a little more.  I used to feel the same way as you but as I've seen him the last couple of years here in the Bay, he's grown on me.  talked about him a few posts back, athletic, good defender, good base runner and bunter.  Think he would fit perfectly with our guys.  Seems to get the hit when you need it.  Has multiple skills that affect a game.

    Critter

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Jid, I'm not trying to talk you into Pence if you've already decided but if you haven't watched him much, you may want to check him out a little more.  I used to feel the same way as you but as I've seen him the last couple of years here in the Bay, he's grown on me.  talked about him a few posts back, athletic, good defender, good base runner and bunter.  Think he would fit perfectly with our guys.  Seems to get the hit when you need it.  Has multiple skills that affect a game.

    Critter



    i like pence but think he is a bit overrated. i would rather have jacoby than Pence. jacoby does more to help the team win and makes others better.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    Looks like we have guys on the major league roster as well as chips below to get a good power hitter AND upgrade starters if we want...

    Critter

     

     



    I know Ben likes his kids, but I would not be surprised if we pull off a shocker this winter to get a real big bopper for the middle of our order (more likely), or a true ace for our staff (less likely now, maybe more likely next winter).

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon, beyond Stanton, who might that bopper be? I know nothing about the Cuban that Boom writes about often, but he wouldn't cost any prospects. Stanton comes with a big red flag in my opinion; he leads MLB in errors among outfielders, in spite of missing lots of time. Pence doesn't excite me. I really don't follow the weaker teams enough to know who might fit the bopper discription. I think much of this year's team comes back next year as is and any blockbuster deal would have ramifications for 2015 and beyond.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think of Pence, Choo, Ellsbury, Napoli, K Morales or any FA as a "big bopper. If we end up with Pence, Salty and Napoli and get upticks from Bogey and Middy, maybe that makes up for the loss of Ellsbury, but I'm really hoping we can somehow land a big bopper without losing Bogey or Owens.

    Stanton is the obvious choice, but will be super costly due to his low salary, age,  and years of team control. Beyond him, I don't see many "available" players.

    Here are the leaders in SLG from 2012-2013 (500+ PAs):

    .627  Miggy  Not available: Nope

    .582  Ortiz

    .576  C David  N/A  Nope

    .569  Braun (Roidman)

    .567  Trout  (Would take the world to pry him from the Angels)

    .553  Stanton

    .546  Encarnacion  (A long shot possibility)

    .545  C Gonzalez (How good away from Colo?)

    .545  B Moss  (How come we can never get guys like him?)

    .538  McCutchen  (I lobbied for him years ago: a slight chance now.)

    .535  A Beltre  Very slight chance.

    .533  R Cano  (Can he play 3B?)

    .524  Goldschmidt N/A

    .524  Votto  N/A

    .521  Tulo

    .516  Cuddyer

    .512  A Hill  Doubt it

    .510 Bautista

    .509  Posey  N/A

    .508  A Ramirez

    .507  C Hart  A FA gamble

    .506  Hamilton (Don't want him)

    .504  J Bruce

    .503  Longoria  N/A

    .502  A Jones N/A

    .501  Wright  N/A

    .500  HanRam

    .498  Quentin

    .495  C Beltran, .493 A Soriano, .493 Fielder, .493 Ludwick...

    others

    .491  E Chavez

    .486  Kemp

    .482  S Harrison

    .481 C Gomez

    .481 N Cruz

    .481 Trumbo

    .481  Ibanez

    .479  Napoli

    .478  Grandy

    .474  C Ruiz

    .471  G Jones

    .471 AJ Pierz.

    .471 A Rios

    .467 C Carter

    .466  B Butler

    .465  Willingham

    .461 Venable

    .460 Utley

    .460  K Morales

    .460  Mauer

    .459  Pence

    .453 C Johnson

    .453  Choo

    .453  Headley

    .453 M Byrd

    .452  Salty

    .452  Dunn

    .445  A Gordon

    .444  Ethier

    .443 Fowler

     

    I don't see many choices here

     

     

     

    .

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Jid, I'm not trying to talk you into Pence if you've already decided but if you haven't watched him much, you may want to check him out a little more.  I used to feel the same way as you but as I've seen him the last couple of years here in the Bay, he's grown on me.  talked about him a few posts back, athletic, good defender, good base runner and bunter.  Think he would fit perfectly with our guys.  Seems to get the hit when you need it.  Has multiple skills that affect a game.

    Critter



    Crit, when I say he doesn't excite me that doesn't mean I don't think he can play. I simply haven't seen enough of him to get me excited. We've gotten a ton of production, very quietly and effeciently, from our outfield platoons, so it's going to take a big-time individual performance to improve upon that. And if you have to give much up to replace what we already have, I just don't see the value.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III


    Red Sox 2013 is a team of destiny? It will add a new sabermetric of Chemistry of teams with beards. Farrell has set the precedent and managed the game to perfection. He made all the right moves, you can call him little lucky at times. I am beginning to think maybe Ben was the mastermind, not Theo.  Piching wins World Series and appears Sox are built for the World Series.

     I'm waiting by the mailbox for my tickets!

     

     

    BDC member since 12/13/2004 "Can you believe it?"

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Great list Moon, thanks. And all it does is confirm what I suspected. I don't see anyone new coming in here that could give us a much greater lift than Bogey, Middlebrooks and the current outfield platoon could give us in 2014. Not for nothing, but I think Drew is making a great case for himself to be signed longer term. I said in an earlier post that I could see a scenario where only Pedroia, among position players next year, would get as many as 500 at-bats. Bogey, Middlebrooks, Napoli and Carp for three infield spots and Nava, Bradley, Victorino, Gomes and Carp in the three outfield spots. Salty and Ross back behind the plate. And I'm not convinced that Ellsbury is gone for certain; stranger things have happened.

    Surplus players who could be dealt, Lava, one starter and a full farm system. But any deals have to be about 2015 and beyond.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to jcri's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Jid, I'm not trying to talk you into Pence if you've already decided but if you haven't watched him much, you may want to check him out a little more.  I used to feel the same way as you but as I've seen him the last couple of years here in the Bay, he's grown on me.  talked about him a few posts back, athletic, good defender, good base runner and bunter.  Think he would fit perfectly with our guys.  Seems to get the hit when you need it.  Has multiple skills that affect a game.

    Critter

     



    i like pence but think he is a bit overrated. i would rather have jacoby than Pence. jacoby does more to help the team win and makes others better.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My guess is Pence will cost much less.

    Pence doesn't miss as much time as Jacoby.

    I'd rather have Ellsbury, but if it came to Ellsbury and Lava or Pence and Salty, I'd choose the latter.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I don't see any way we would let Salty walk.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Great list Moon, thanks. And all it does is confirm what I suspected. I don't see anyone new coming in here that could give us a much greater lift than Bogey, Middlebrooks and the current outfield platoon could give us in 2014. Not for nothing, but I think Drew is making a great case for himself to be signed longer term. I said in an earlier post that I could see a scenario where only Pedroia, among position players next year, would get as many as 500 at-bats. Bogey, Middlebrooks, Napoli and Carp for three infield spots and Nava, Bradley, Victorino, Gomes and Carp in the three outfield spots. Salty and Ross back behind the plate. And I'm not convinced that Ellsbury is gone for certain; stranger things have happened.

    Surplus players who could be dealt, Lava, one starter and a full farm system. But any deals have to be about 2015 and beyond.



    There's no way we keep Drew and Napoli, since that would squeeze out Bogey or Middlebrooks. Let's assume we keep Salty. I seriously doubt the only FA we sign is Napoli. I'm thinking we'll end up with something like this:

    Pence, Napoli, and Salty.

    Here's the 2014 outlook:

           vs RHPs       vs LHPs

    1)          Victorino (CF)

    2)          Pedroia (2B)

    3)          Ortiz  (DH)

    4)          Napoli  (1B)

    5)          Pence  (RF) 

    6)   Nava (LF)   Gomes (LF)

    7)   Salty (C)    Middlebrooks (3B)

    8)  Middy (3B)  Bogey (SS)

    9)  Bogey (SS)  Ross (C)

     

    Without Pence:

    Move everyone up and put JBJ up 9th, or play Gomes or Carp vs LHPs in LF and Nava in RF.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Jid, I hear you on Pence.  I wouldn't want to give up a bunch of top players for him either.  And for the record, I'm not saying He's a bopper or he's better than ELLS.  I am saying if we should lose ELLS, and if we got Pence, our production would stay about the same.  He would hit more HR's but steal less bases but still get about 20 of each.  I just think he's "a good option."  I would love a bopper and advocated for Trumbo last year but it didn't look like LAA fielded offers and I would be surprise if they would now after his great year, with the health of the big fella in mind but  maybe with their salary considerations in mind???  Moon et al?  You think LA would take a package?

    n

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    After watching the Billy Hamilton situation in Cincinnati, I'm a fan of the potential impact of having a 5th Of on the bench you can put in for a near automatic SB when needed late in the game. That guy won his first 2 games played as a pinch runner no less. In his first start he stole 4 bases. 

    Ideally the 5th OF is more than just a base stealer. I absolutely love the concept of Rajai Davis being signed as a FA this off season. The guy is a near automatic SB ( unlike the designated SB guy we have now ) plus he is a decent reserve OF who can slot in against LH pitching also. Be a decent defensive replacement although he is not that good on defense. He could play RF for us some but his best use is off the bench as a pinch runner and injury reserve. 

    The bottom line is how many games does your 5th OF help you win? I think a guy like Raajai Davis off the bench gives us more wins than most other 5th OF. Think about how many close games in late innings can be decided if you can just get that guy from 1st to 2nd without having to sacrifice bunt. I think a Rajai Davis is maybe worth 5-6 wins per year. I'd rather have him than Jonny Gomes even.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I think we are sitting in the catbird's seat. I don't think it will hurt us that much if we lose Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty. Ellsbury would hurt the most but that is also over $35 mil in savings plus 4 top picks. I would definitely offer every one of them a QO and hope to God they walk. 

    Abreu is an incredibly exciting option. Not saying he is a definite all star but he did put up much better numbers than Puig last year. And every other player we have seen from Cuba in the last 10 years. He is a potential mega stud and he is a RH bat who could well approach Manny Ramirez type production in Fenway. Isn't that what we want? It's worth the risk.

    At the same time, if we do offer Napoli a QO and he does take it what is so bad about that. He was a significant part of the best offense in baseball this year plus he is a proven commodity. We are in a good situation at 1st base. We have options. The Yanks already have Texiera. The Phils Howard. The Orioles are set at 1st. The Dodgers. We should be major players for Abreu if we want him. We are certainly one the biggest market teams still standing for the Abreu option.

    Look up info about him. The numbers at least indicate he is the biggest international position signing of the lat 10 years ( since Ichiro ).

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If Drew walks we have Bogaerts who has looked terrific so far. It may well be a step up even this coming year. Relatively low risk with a really big potential upside.

    If Ellsbury walks it will hurt but that is a ton of money saved also and JBJ is probably better than many here project him to be. If he is healthy I think he will be above average in CF.

    If Salty walks we still have Lavarnway, who did hit around .300 this year in limited duty with defense no worse than Salty's. And Ross. And Vasquez and even Butler who some analysts think is as good as Vasquez. Plus plenty of money to go after McCann which makes a ton of sense to me. McCann profiles as better defensively than Salty plus he should be a better hitter also. And we can afford him.

    And we have virtually everyone stillcoming back from AAA ball and the prospect of Cechinni / Ranaudo hitting the 25 man roster potentially by the all star break.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Jid, I hear you on Pence.  I wouldn't want to give up a bunch of top players for him either.

    Pence will be a FA. No players need to be given up to get him.

     And for the record, I'm not saying He's a bopper or he's better than ELLS.  I am saying if we should lose ELLS, and if we got Pence, our production would stay about the same.  He would hit more HR's but steal less bases but still get about 20 of each.  I just think he's "a good option."  I would love a bopper and advocated for Trumbo last year but it didn't look like LAA fielded offers and I would be surprise if they would now after his great year, with the health of the big fella in mind but  maybe with their salary considerations in mind???  Moon et al?  You think LA would take a package?

    They would listen, but I'm not high on Trumbo.

     



     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here's a wild option: maybe if shouldn't be revealed on the "Realistic" thread...

    Offer Ellsbury and Napoli a QO. The walk and we gain 2 picks.

    Do not offer Drew a QO, since he would take it.

    Sign Robinson Cano and move him to 3B. Move Middlebrooks to 1B.

    Sign Mike Morse or Corey Hart to play 1B and RF.

    Sign Salty to as short a term contract as he will take (doubt it would be a QO).

     

    Our 2014 Line-up:

    1) Victorino  CF/RF

    2) Pedroia  2B

    3) Cano  3B

    4) Ortiz  DH

    5) Hart*  RF/1B 

    6) Nava LF/RF or Gomes  LF

    7) Middlebrooks  1B

    8) Bogey  SSJ

    9) Carp 1B/LF or JBJ CF

    *If Hart does not play, move everyone else up a notch, leaving JBJ or Bogey up 9th.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Although every one of these guys except Ellsbury would make more money in 2014 if they do take the QO, it does keep them on a 1 year deal and it does give us flexibility of action while keeping a lot of the core talent together. Salty is the guy who would be making an outrageous amount for his 1 year deal but considering the dirth of catching talent out there he may well get a multi year deal. To me, the guy least likely to get a QO is Salty but I'm willing to roll the dice on all of them.

    I like where we set. Consider this. Next year we have an opportunity to do it again if all these guys accept, plus we can add Lester and Peavy as well ( maybe others also...I haven't thought about it much ).

    Going forward, great teams will be built by having the best scouting and player development programs plus access to top picks, and the money to spend on international signings and FA. A major market team can still leverage their monetary advantages in such a way to enable more draft success, as we did earlier with overslot signings. A decision has clearly been made to increase our available top picks by letting some talent go into FA and steering away from losing picks by not signing other team's FA if they are offered QO. And if we focus mainly on short term signings we maybe even maximize picks in that way also. The sooner a FA hits the market, the more often they potentially generate picks.

    A steady flow of top young talent is perhaps the most important consideration for any team to remain competitive long term, except of course for the Yankees and Dodgers.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I think we are sitting in the catbird's seat. I don't think it will hurt us that much if we lose Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty. Ellsbury would hurt the most but that is also over $35 mil in savings plus 4 top picks. I would definitely offer every one of them a QO and hope to God they walk. 



    This is the kind of thinking I can't completely understand.  Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty are all having strong seasons and making major contributions to a title run. 

    'Out with the old and in with the new' always sounds great though.

      

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     



    Yes, Pence will get a QO, so if we sign him, we lose a pick. (Evens out the pick we gain by losing JE)

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I think we are sitting in the catbird's seat. I don't think it will hurt us that much if we lose Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty. Ellsbury would hurt the most but that is also over $35 mil in savings plus 4 top picks. I would definitely offer every one of them a QO and hope to God they walk. 

     

    I'd love to get Napoli and Ellsbury to take a QO of $14M/1.

    No long term risk.

    Buy another year of prospect development.

    Drew would almost certainly take a $14M/1 offer, and we don't have room for him and Napoli, if Bogey is to be given a full shot.

    Salty would certainly take a QO, unless his agent tells him he can get him a long term deal elsewhere at $10-12M+ a year.

    The only way I think about bringing Drew back, is if we don't sign Napoli or a 1Bman (move Bogey to 3B and Middy to 1B).

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     



    Hunter Pence asked Brian Sabean not to trade him at the deadline & Sabean told him he would have to be "overwhelmed" to even consider it. Pence loves playing in SF & they clearly want him back, so I'd be very surprised if they don't work something out.  That said, he is definitely the kind of player the Sox Front Office looks for on AND off the field. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

     

     

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     

     

     



    Hunter Pence asked Brian Sabean not to trade him at the deadline & Sabean told him he would have to be "overwhelmed" to even consider it. Pence loves playing in SF & they clearly want him back, so I'd be very surprised if they don't work something out.  That said, he is definitely the kind of player the Sox Front Office looks for on AND off the field. 

     

     

     



    Agreed.

     

    Perhaps Choo could be "the man". His high OBP plays into our philosophy, but his struggles vs LHPs are legendary.

    I wonder if Corey hart or Mike Morse might be plan Bs, since they can play 1B as well, in case Napoli walks and Carp's 2013 was a hoax.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

     

     

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     

     

     



    Hunter Pence asked Brian Sabean not to trade him at the deadline & Sabean told him he would have to be "overwhelmed" to even consider it. Pence loves playing in SF & they clearly want him back, so I'd be very surprised if they don't work something out.  That said, he is definitely the kind of player the Sox Front Office looks for on AND off the field. 

     

     

     



    Agreed.

     

    Perhaps Choo could be "the man". His high OBP plays into our philosophy, but his struggles vs LHPs are legendary.

    I wonder if Corey hart or Mike Morse might be plan Bs, since they can play 1B as well, in case Napoli walks and Carp's 2013 was a hoax.

    I'm sure the Sox will have interest in Choo at the right price.  I think most of the baseball ops people in Boston would prefer to let Ellsbury walk, but Larry Lucchino is a marketing guy and Ellsbury is a huge draw, especially to the female fan base.  It's a factor that will certainly be considered.  How the rest of the season plays out will also be a factor. 


    Hart is another guy who would fit the Sox mold, but he's made it clear he would return to Milwaukee at a discount. He said he feels that he owes the organization and the fans.  Whether Milwaukee wants him back or not is another matter.  I think the Sox re-sign Naps & let Drew walk, but I'd be lying if I said I had any clue how this off season will play out.  One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

    I agree that if Bogey & Middy are here, they will have FT jobs, however, I could see Middy being traded.

    We could sign Drew, Naps and Salty, and maybe a lesser OF'er and put Bogey at 3B.

    Sox4ever

     
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