Notice: All Boston.com forums will be retired as of May 31st, 2016 and will not be archived. Thank you for your participation in this community, and we hope you continue to enjoy other content at Boston.com.

A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Great list Moon, thanks. And all it does is confirm what I suspected. I don't see anyone new coming in here that could give us a much greater lift than Bogey, Middlebrooks and the current outfield platoon could give us in 2014. Not for nothing, but I think Drew is making a great case for himself to be signed longer term. I said in an earlier post that I could see a scenario where only Pedroia, among position players next year, would get as many as 500 at-bats. Bogey, Middlebrooks, Napoli and Carp for three infield spots and Nava, Bradley, Victorino, Gomes and Carp in the three outfield spots. Salty and Ross back behind the plate. And I'm not convinced that Ellsbury is gone for certain; stranger things have happened.

    Surplus players who could be dealt, Lava, one starter and a full farm system. But any deals have to be about 2015 and beyond.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    Jid, I'm not trying to talk you into Pence if you've already decided but if you haven't watched him much, you may want to check him out a little more.  I used to feel the same way as you but as I've seen him the last couple of years here in the Bay, he's grown on me.  talked about him a few posts back, athletic, good defender, good base runner and bunter.  Think he would fit perfectly with our guys.  Seems to get the hit when you need it.  Has multiple skills that affect a game.

    Critter

     



    i like pence but think he is a bit overrated. i would rather have jacoby than Pence. jacoby does more to help the team win and makes others better.

     



    My guess is Pence will cost much less.

    Pence doesn't miss as much time as Jacoby.

    I'd rather have Ellsbury, but if it came to Ellsbury and Lava or Pence and Salty, I'd choose the latter.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I don't see any way we would let Salty walk.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Great list Moon, thanks. And all it does is confirm what I suspected. I don't see anyone new coming in here that could give us a much greater lift than Bogey, Middlebrooks and the current outfield platoon could give us in 2014. Not for nothing, but I think Drew is making a great case for himself to be signed longer term. I said in an earlier post that I could see a scenario where only Pedroia, among position players next year, would get as many as 500 at-bats. Bogey, Middlebrooks, Napoli and Carp for three infield spots and Nava, Bradley, Victorino, Gomes and Carp in the three outfield spots. Salty and Ross back behind the plate. And I'm not convinced that Ellsbury is gone for certain; stranger things have happened.

    Surplus players who could be dealt, Lava, one starter and a full farm system. But any deals have to be about 2015 and beyond.



    There's no way we keep Drew and Napoli, since that would squeeze out Bogey or Middlebrooks. Let's assume we keep Salty. I seriously doubt the only FA we sign is Napoli. I'm thinking we'll end up with something like this:

    Pence, Napoli, and Salty.

    Here's the 2014 outlook:

           vs RHPs       vs LHPs

    1)          Victorino (CF)

    2)          Pedroia (2B)

    3)          Ortiz  (DH)

    4)          Napoli  (1B)

    5)          Pence  (RF) 

    6)   Nava (LF)   Gomes (LF)

    7)   Salty (C)    Middlebrooks (3B)

    8)  Middy (3B)  Bogey (SS)

    9)  Bogey (SS)  Ross (C)

     

    Without Pence:

    Move everyone up and put JBJ up 9th, or play Gomes or Carp vs LHPs in LF and Nava in RF.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Jid, I hear you on Pence.  I wouldn't want to give up a bunch of top players for him either.  And for the record, I'm not saying He's a bopper or he's better than ELLS.  I am saying if we should lose ELLS, and if we got Pence, our production would stay about the same.  He would hit more HR's but steal less bases but still get about 20 of each.  I just think he's "a good option."  I would love a bopper and advocated for Trumbo last year but it didn't look like LAA fielded offers and I would be surprise if they would now after his great year, with the health of the big fella in mind but  maybe with their salary considerations in mind???  Moon et al?  You think LA would take a package?

    n

    Critter

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    After watching the Billy Hamilton situation in Cincinnati, I'm a fan of the potential impact of having a 5th Of on the bench you can put in for a near automatic SB when needed late in the game. That guy won his first 2 games played as a pinch runner no less. In his first start he stole 4 bases. 

    Ideally the 5th OF is more than just a base stealer. I absolutely love the concept of Rajai Davis being signed as a FA this off season. The guy is a near automatic SB ( unlike the designated SB guy we have now ) plus he is a decent reserve OF who can slot in against LH pitching also. Be a decent defensive replacement although he is not that good on defense. He could play RF for us some but his best use is off the bench as a pinch runner and injury reserve. 

    The bottom line is how many games does your 5th OF help you win? I think a guy like Raajai Davis off the bench gives us more wins than most other 5th OF. Think about how many close games in late innings can be decided if you can just get that guy from 1st to 2nd without having to sacrifice bunt. I think a Rajai Davis is maybe worth 5-6 wins per year. I'd rather have him than Jonny Gomes even.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I think we are sitting in the catbird's seat. I don't think it will hurt us that much if we lose Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty. Ellsbury would hurt the most but that is also over $35 mil in savings plus 4 top picks. I would definitely offer every one of them a QO and hope to God they walk. 

    Abreu is an incredibly exciting option. Not saying he is a definite all star but he did put up much better numbers than Puig last year. And every other player we have seen from Cuba in the last 10 years. He is a potential mega stud and he is a RH bat who could well approach Manny Ramirez type production in Fenway. Isn't that what we want? It's worth the risk.

    At the same time, if we do offer Napoli a QO and he does take it what is so bad about that. He was a significant part of the best offense in baseball this year plus he is a proven commodity. We are in a good situation at 1st base. We have options. The Yanks already have Texiera. The Phils Howard. The Orioles are set at 1st. The Dodgers. We should be major players for Abreu if we want him. We are certainly one the biggest market teams still standing for the Abreu option.

    Look up info about him. The numbers at least indicate he is the biggest international position signing of the lat 10 years ( since Ichiro ).

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If Drew walks we have Bogaerts who has looked terrific so far. It may well be a step up even this coming year. Relatively low risk with a really big potential upside.

    If Ellsbury walks it will hurt but that is a ton of money saved also and JBJ is probably better than many here project him to be. If he is healthy I think he will be above average in CF.

    If Salty walks we still have Lavarnway, who did hit around .300 this year in limited duty with defense no worse than Salty's. And Ross. And Vasquez and even Butler who some analysts think is as good as Vasquez. Plus plenty of money to go after McCann which makes a ton of sense to me. McCann profiles as better defensively than Salty plus he should be a better hitter also. And we can afford him.

    And we have virtually everyone stillcoming back from AAA ball and the prospect of Cechinni / Ranaudo hitting the 25 man roster potentially by the all star break.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Jid, I hear you on Pence.  I wouldn't want to give up a bunch of top players for him either.

    Pence will be a FA. No players need to be given up to get him.

     And for the record, I'm not saying He's a bopper or he's better than ELLS.  I am saying if we should lose ELLS, and if we got Pence, our production would stay about the same.  He would hit more HR's but steal less bases but still get about 20 of each.  I just think he's "a good option."  I would love a bopper and advocated for Trumbo last year but it didn't look like LAA fielded offers and I would be surprise if they would now after his great year, with the health of the big fella in mind but  maybe with their salary considerations in mind???  Moon et al?  You think LA would take a package?

    They would listen, but I'm not high on Trumbo.

     



     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here's a wild option: maybe if shouldn't be revealed on the "Realistic" thread...

    Offer Ellsbury and Napoli a QO. The walk and we gain 2 picks.

    Do not offer Drew a QO, since he would take it.

    Sign Robinson Cano and move him to 3B. Move Middlebrooks to 1B.

    Sign Mike Morse or Corey Hart to play 1B and RF.

    Sign Salty to as short a term contract as he will take (doubt it would be a QO).

     

    Our 2014 Line-up:

    1) Victorino  CF/RF

    2) Pedroia  2B

    3) Cano  3B

    4) Ortiz  DH

    5) Hart*  RF/1B 

    6) Nava LF/RF or Gomes  LF

    7) Middlebrooks  1B

    8) Bogey  SSJ

    9) Carp 1B/LF or JBJ CF

    *If Hart does not play, move everyone else up a notch, leaving JBJ or Bogey up 9th.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Although every one of these guys except Ellsbury would make more money in 2014 if they do take the QO, it does keep them on a 1 year deal and it does give us flexibility of action while keeping a lot of the core talent together. Salty is the guy who would be making an outrageous amount for his 1 year deal but considering the dirth of catching talent out there he may well get a multi year deal. To me, the guy least likely to get a QO is Salty but I'm willing to roll the dice on all of them.

    I like where we set. Consider this. Next year we have an opportunity to do it again if all these guys accept, plus we can add Lester and Peavy as well ( maybe others also...I haven't thought about it much ).

    Going forward, great teams will be built by having the best scouting and player development programs plus access to top picks, and the money to spend on international signings and FA. A major market team can still leverage their monetary advantages in such a way to enable more draft success, as we did earlier with overslot signings. A decision has clearly been made to increase our available top picks by letting some talent go into FA and steering away from losing picks by not signing other team's FA if they are offered QO. And if we focus mainly on short term signings we maybe even maximize picks in that way also. The sooner a FA hits the market, the more often they potentially generate picks.

    A steady flow of top young talent is perhaps the most important consideration for any team to remain competitive long term, except of course for the Yankees and Dodgers.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I think we are sitting in the catbird's seat. I don't think it will hurt us that much if we lose Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty. Ellsbury would hurt the most but that is also over $35 mil in savings plus 4 top picks. I would definitely offer every one of them a QO and hope to God they walk. 



    This is the kind of thinking I can't completely understand.  Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty are all having strong seasons and making major contributions to a title run. 

    'Out with the old and in with the new' always sounds great though.

      

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     



    Yes, Pence will get a QO, so if we sign him, we lose a pick. (Evens out the pick we gain by losing JE)

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I think we are sitting in the catbird's seat. I don't think it will hurt us that much if we lose Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty. Ellsbury would hurt the most but that is also over $35 mil in savings plus 4 top picks. I would definitely offer every one of them a QO and hope to God they walk. 

     

    I'd love to get Napoli and Ellsbury to take a QO of $14M/1.

    No long term risk.

    Buy another year of prospect development.

    Drew would almost certainly take a $14M/1 offer, and we don't have room for him and Napoli, if Bogey is to be given a full shot.

    Salty would certainly take a QO, unless his agent tells him he can get him a long term deal elsewhere at $10-12M+ a year.

    The only way I think about bringing Drew back, is if we don't sign Napoli or a 1Bman (move Bogey to 3B and Middy to 1B).

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     



    Hunter Pence asked Brian Sabean not to trade him at the deadline & Sabean told him he would have to be "overwhelmed" to even consider it. Pence loves playing in SF & they clearly want him back, so I'd be very surprised if they don't work something out.  That said, he is definitely the kind of player the Sox Front Office looks for on AND off the field. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

     

     

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     

     

     



    Hunter Pence asked Brian Sabean not to trade him at the deadline & Sabean told him he would have to be "overwhelmed" to even consider it. Pence loves playing in SF & they clearly want him back, so I'd be very surprised if they don't work something out.  That said, he is definitely the kind of player the Sox Front Office looks for on AND off the field. 

     

     

     



    Agreed.

     

    Perhaps Choo could be "the man". His high OBP plays into our philosophy, but his struggles vs LHPs are legendary.

    I wonder if Corey hart or Mike Morse might be plan Bs, since they can play 1B as well, in case Napoli walks and Carp's 2013 was a hoax.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

     

     

    Pence probably gets a QO and is a decent value as a result. He is probably looking at Michael Bourn type money, maybe a little more. And he will almost definitely be worth it. I like him especially if he doesn't get a QO. Heh, it's possible!

     

     

     



    Hunter Pence asked Brian Sabean not to trade him at the deadline & Sabean told him he would have to be "overwhelmed" to even consider it. Pence loves playing in SF & they clearly want him back, so I'd be very surprised if they don't work something out.  That said, he is definitely the kind of player the Sox Front Office looks for on AND off the field. 

     

     

     



    Agreed.

     

    Perhaps Choo could be "the man". His high OBP plays into our philosophy, but his struggles vs LHPs are legendary.

    I wonder if Corey hart or Mike Morse might be plan Bs, since they can play 1B as well, in case Napoli walks and Carp's 2013 was a hoax.

    I'm sure the Sox will have interest in Choo at the right price.  I think most of the baseball ops people in Boston would prefer to let Ellsbury walk, but Larry Lucchino is a marketing guy and Ellsbury is a huge draw, especially to the female fan base.  It's a factor that will certainly be considered.  How the rest of the season plays out will also be a factor. 


    Hart is another guy who would fit the Sox mold, but he's made it clear he would return to Milwaukee at a discount. He said he feels that he owes the organization and the fans.  Whether Milwaukee wants him back or not is another matter.  I think the Sox re-sign Naps & let Drew walk, but I'd be lying if I said I had any clue how this off season will play out.  One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

    I agree that if Bogey & Middy are here, they will have FT jobs, however, I could see Middy being traded.

    We could sign Drew, Naps and Salty, and maybe a lesser OF'er and put Bogey at 3B.

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

    I agree that if Bogey & Middy are here, they will have FT jobs, however, I could see Middy being traded.

    We could sign Drew, Naps and Salty, and maybe a lesser OF'er and put Bogey at 3B.

    Sox4ever



    Agree to disagree on Middy.  Right handed power like that doesn't come around very often.  From what I've heard, he's pretty much untouchable.  The Sox organization was also extremely impressed with how he handled his demotion and feel that he can be a "face of the franchise type" for a long time.  Iglesias, not so much. Middy started believing the hype a little bit and was quickly reminded by Gomes that you don't prepare for a game by texting your buddies.  He clearly got the "message."  I'm well aware of Cecchini, but I don't think his development will affect Middy at all.  They will find a place for his bat.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

     

    One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

    I agree that if Bogey & Middy are here, they will have FT jobs, however, I could see Middy being traded.

    We could sign Drew, Naps and Salty, and maybe a lesser OF'er and put Bogey at 3B.

    Sox4ever

     



    Agree to disagree on Middy.  Right handed power like that doesn't come around very often.  From what I've heard, he's pretty much untouchable.  The Sox organization was also extremely impressed with how he handled his demotion and feel that he can be a "face of the franchise type" for a long time.  Iglesias, not so much. Middy started believing the hype a little bit and was quickly reminded by Gomes that you don't prepare for a game by texting your buddies.  He clearly got the "message."  I'm well aware of Cecchini, but I don't think his development will affect Middy at all.  They will find a place for his bat.

     

    I'm not for trading or benching Middy, so I don't see us as disagreeing.

    The same reasons we love Middy is the same reason some other GM loves him too.... maybe more!

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

     

     

    I think we are sitting in the catbird's seat. I don't think it will hurt us that much if we lose Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty. Ellsbury would hurt the most but that is also over $35 mil in savings plus 4 top picks. I would definitely offer every one of them a QO and hope to God they walk. 

     

     



    This is the kind of thinking I can't completely understand.  Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty are all having strong seasons and making major contributions to a title run. 

     

     

    'Out with the old and in with the new' always sounds great though.

      

     

     



    We can do a lot with $35 mil in the FA market and if we can also net 4 top picks I'm all for it. None of these guys are irreplaceable.

     

    Abreu may well be > Napoli

    Bogaerts may well be > Drew

    A Pence hitting in Fenway may well be very close to Ellsbury at a much cheaper cost

    Salty < McCann

     

    Change can be a good thing.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:



    We can do a lot with $35 mil in the FA market and if we can also net 4 top picks I'm all for it. None of these guys are irreplaceable. 

    Abreu may well be > Napoli

    Bogaerts may well be > Drew

    A Pence hitting in Fenway may well be very close to Ellsbury at a much cheaper cost

    Salty < McCann 

    Change can be a good thing.



    Change is a good thing when things need changing.

    Anyway I'm pretty confident in Cherington making good decisions.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

    I agree that if Bogey & Middy are here, they will have FT jobs, however, I could see Middy being traded.

    We could sign Drew, Naps and Salty, and maybe a lesser OF'er and put Bogey at 3B.

    Sox4ever

     



    Agree to disagree on Middy.  Right handed power like that doesn't come around very often.  From what I've heard, he's pretty much untouchable.  The Sox organization was also extremely impressed with how he handled his demotion and feel that he can be a "face of the franchise type" for a long time.  Iglesias, not so much. Middy started believing the hype a little bit and was quickly reminded by Gomes that you don't prepare for a game by texting your buddies.  He clearly got the "message."  I'm well aware of Cecchini, but I don't think his development will affect Middy at all.  They will find a place for his bat.

     

    I'm not for trading or benching Middy, so I don't see us as disagreeing.

    The same reasons we love Middy is the same reason some other GM loves him too.... maybe more!

    Sox4ever



    I hear ya, Moon.  There's a reason why the Sox were so intrigued with Wily Mo Pena.  Right handed power is a commodity.  There's not a GM or hitting coach in baseball that wouldn't love to have Middlebrooks.  It says a lot when opposing players like to watch him take BP.  

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I don't think anyone here wants change for change sake, but we all are realists about this: no matter what we want some change just naturally occurs and as fans we  naturally speculate about "what if?"

    In the interest of "fair reporting," I'll offer up a conversation I had in a "RS Bar" I just discovered. OFFERED UP MY idea about Pence and the owner and one client both ardent RS fans who also watch Giants, responded "NO! NO! NO!"  Too awkward, lunges at pitches, lunges at balls with his glove and catches with his off hand, only playing well because FA coming up, etc.  I've seen this too--but his numbers show he's been about the 4th most productive guy in the Nl since AS break.

    23 HR and 93 RBI for the season ain't that shabby...

     

    Critter

     
Sections
Shortcuts