A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    Lava won't get 2 or 3 years with Vazquez in the wings.    Signing Salty long term may make him easier to trade when Vazquez moves up.   Lava is the odd man out I look for him to be traded.



    He may end up at DH or be traded by the time Vazquez is ready. We also have Swihart and Denny right behind Vazquez.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    A few facts about the Red Sox this year.   Laughing

    • The Red Sox won their 33rd series of the season
    • The Red Sox won 95 games for the 7th time since 2003
    • The Red Sox are 53-28 at home which is the best home record in the AL
    • Since 2003, the Red Sox are 64-27 at home vs. the A's and Tigers but they are 38-49 at Oakland and Detroit during that span

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    A few facts about the Red Sox this year.   Laughing

    • The Red Sox won their 33rd series of the season
    • The Red Sox won 95 games for the 7th time since 2003
    • The Red Sox are 53-28 at home which is the best home record in the AL
    • Since 2003, the Red Sox are 64-27 at home vs. the A's and Tigers but they are 38-49 at Oakland and Detroit during that span

     



    Sounds like we better rap up home field advantage.

    Go Angels!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    I am ready to talk 2014... 2013 is already in the bag! WSC!

    Sign Shin-Soo and McCann... let the rotation stand as is, tinker with the pen as we must every year... Elles, Salty, and Drew walk. Get Morales or Napoli on 2 year deal max..... WSC 2014!



    I'm just guessing here, but say McCann would take $70M/5 and Salty would cost $40M/4. Would you still want McCann? If not, would you take Salty at $40M/4? If not, what's the alternative?

    If Napoli and K Morales cost the same, which do you prefer?

    If Choo will cost $80M/5, but Pence only $55M/4, would you still want Choo?

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    According to soxprospects.com, here are next year's positional player roster and depth chart (based on AAA, then AA, then A...):

    C: ______ /Ross/Vazquez/Butler/Swihart/Denny

    1B: _______/Carp/T Shaw (Almanzar)

    2B: Pedroia/Meneses/Betts/Coyle

    SS: Bogaerts/Holt/Marrero/Vinicio/Lin

    3B: Middlebrooks/Cecchini/Almanzar

    LF: Nava/Gomes/Hassan/Linares/de la Cruz

    CF: ________/Bradley/Kalish/Hazelbaker/Ramos

    RF: Victorino/Brentz/Hissey/Wilkerson

    DH: Ortiz

     

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Some have talked here about Lava assuming the DH role when Papi retires.  in that role he could also be a backup catcher or 1st baseman.  But is he worth more than that as a catcher in a trade before then?  Who is our DH if Papi can't go?  Lava?  Nava?  Gomes?  Carp? 

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If Salty were the devil and you guys were Catholic you would still be fans. I give up.

    We don't know what will happen going forward but I for one hope every one of our FA players walk and we get 4 picks. But if they do I hope we get in return some solid players like Abreu. 

     

    Bogaerts CAN replace Drew.

    Carp/Nava CAN replace Napoli

    JBJ CAN replace Ellsbury but we will see a downturn there.

    Abreu CAN replace Napoli

    With the cash left over I hope we position ourselves for some excellent FA talent in the future and hopefully make a run at that hot young Japanese pitcher as well this year. If we get him, Abreu and 4 picks I will be happy. I recognize that it is asking for a lot but we are the freaking Redsox Right!

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    With the replacements I mentioned above, isn't it possible that the offensive numbers might even go up overall?

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Some have talked here about Lava assuming the DH role when Papi retires.  in that role he could also be a backup catcher or 1st baseman.  But is he worth more than that as a catcher in a trade before then?  Who is our DH if Papi can't go?  Lava?  Nava?  Gomes?  Carp? 

    Critter



    My guess is we will sign a 1Bman and OF'er this winter, so yes, the DH role can be assumed by Carp, Gomes, or Nava (or Lava, if he can show consistency at the plate), in case Papi cannot go.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

     

     

    I am ready to talk 2014... 2013 is already in the bag! WSC!

    Sign Shin-Soo and McCann... let the rotation stand as is, tinker with the pen as we must every year... Elles, Salty, and Drew walk. Get Morales or Napoli on 2 year deal max..... WSC 2014!

     

     



    I'm just guessing here, but say McCann would take $70M/5 and Salty would cost $40M/4. Would you still want McCann? If not, would you take Salty at $40M/4? If not, what's the alternative?

     

     

    If Napoli and K Morales cost the same, which do you prefer?

    If Choo will cost $80M/5, but Pence only $55M/4, would you still want Choo?

     



    a lot of if's there Sir.

     

    I take Shoo over Pence every day.... regardless of the cost difference. Napoli and Morales are a coin flip to me but I do not know how good Morales is with the glove (that might make the difference to me).

    As for McCann I only take him over Salty because I can... The Red Sox can afford it. 

    Victrorino/Shoo/Bradley sounds good to me.

    Not having to sign a big name or even a lame name starter next yeat is great... no additional money spent on the rotation. Just off-hand I wonder when the last time was we entered a season with the same starters as the year before.... it is rare me thinks?



    Fair enough, and we can afford Choo, Napoli/Morales & McCann, but it would likely put us over the luxury limit. I have us with about $35M to spend after all the arbs are settled. We could save some b cutting Bailey loose or trading Dempster, but my guess is those 3 FAs will cost about $40-50M combined per year average salary.

    It's pretty clear we will be going with Bogey at SS (or maybe 3B), but we will probably also need a capable utility IF'er who plays SS very well defensively. That will cost a little. We may also need a veteran pen arm, but with Miller returning, we may roll the dice.

    I could see us trying to go big at just 2 of the 3 open slots (C, 1B, and CF/RF), and leave the other slot for players we already have to fight over. The question then would be, which slot is best left to our system?

    Here's how I rank them (best to worst):

    1) 1B: Carp/Nava/Papi (at NL parks) and maybe Middlebrooks from 3B.

    2) RF/CF: Victorino/Bradley/Nava/Gomes/Carp/Brentz/Kalish

    3) C: Ross/Lava/Butler/Vazquez

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If Salty were the devil and you guys were Catholic you would still be fans. I give up.

    We don't know what will happen going forward but I for one hope every one of our FA players walk and we get 4 picks. But if they do I hope we get in return some solid players like Abreu. 

     

    Bogaerts CAN replace Drew.

    Carp/Nava CAN replace Napoli

    JBJ CAN replace Ellsbury but we will see a downturn there.

    Abreu CAN replace Napoli

    With the cash left over I hope we position ourselves for some excellent FA talent in the future and hopefully make a run at that hot young Japanese pitcher as well this year. If we get him, Abreu and 4 picks I will be happy. I recognize that it is asking for a lot but we are the freaking Redsox Right!

    ___________________________

    With the replacements I mentioned above, isn't it possible that the offensive numbers might even go up overall?

     

    Napoli's numbers might be hard to beat from within the system, and if you use Carp exclusively at 1B, and Nava some at 1B, the LF numbers will suffer, especially vs RHPs.

    I do think Bogey can match or better Drew's offense in his rookie year, but it may be a decline.

    JBJ will probably not come close to the 2013 Ellsbury numbers.

    McCann may do better than 2013 Salty, but probably not by much.

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here's a look at next year's pitching roster depth chart:

    SP

    Buchholz

    Lester

    Peavy

    Lackey

    Doubront

    Dempster

    Morales

    Farm: Webster/Ranaudo/Wright/Barnes/Owens/(Britton/de la Rosa from RP)

    RP

    Uehara

    Tazawa

    Breslow

    Miller

    Bailey(?)

    Workman

    (Dempster/Morales from SP)

    Farm: Britton/de la Rosa/Villareal/Wilson/Beato/C Martin/C Hernandez

     

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    We play our last game of the regular season on Sept 29.

    30  Off

    10/1 Off

    10/2 Off (AL wild card game)

    10/3 Off

    10/4 Game 1 at BOS  (Buchholz)

    10/5 Game 2 at BOS  (Lester)

    10/6 Off

    10/7 Game 3 @ ???  (Peavy)

    10/8 Game 4 @ ??? if necessary  (Lackey)

    10/9 Off

    10/10 Game 5 at BOS if necessary  (Buch +1 day rest)

    10/11 Off

    10/12 Game 1 of ALCS (Buch, if no game 5 before or Lester)

    (2 games- 1 off, 3 games- 1 off, 2 games)

    Maybe Buch, Lester-off-Peavy, Lackey, Buch, off, Lester (+1), and Peavy game 7

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Watched Pence tonight.  As hot as he was a week or two ago, he's cold now--I think o-25.  Flailing  at pitches with little discipline right now.  .286/25/86, think those are his numbers.  Wish he was more of a grinder.  I'm getting cold on him...

    Critter

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    For 2014, I would choose K Morales over Napoli only because he is a switch-hitter. Having said that, Napoli is a team player, and I would be happy with him as well.


    Sign Salty. Trade Lava. Keep Ross as back-up.


    Use our depth to go after a young impact player. Miami will not afford Stanton soon. If not this year, then next year. Develop a package around Doubront, Lava, and Nava. Doubront and Nava have had good years and the Marlins need a catcher that can hit. All three are affordable by Marlins terms.


    If we get Stanton, it would be better to have K Morales than Napoli.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:

    For 2014, I would choose K Morales over Napoli only because he is a switch-hitter. Having said that, Napoli is a team player, and I would be happy with him as well.


    Sign Salty. Trade Lava. Keep Ross as back-up.


    Use our depth to go after a young impact player. Miami will not afford Stanton soon. If not this year, then next year. Develop a package around Doubront, Lava, and Nava. Doubront and Nava have had good years and the Marlins need a catcher that can hit. All three are affordable by Marlins terms.


    If we get Stanton, it would be better to have K Morales than Napoli.



    I like K Morales a little more than Napoli as well, and they both have had injury issues, but the length of any deal is a concern. I know they could slide to DH once Papi retires, but paying a DH $13-15M a year is a little too much. I know I seem to be in the minority here, but I see Middy as our 1Bman longterm with Bogey sliding to 3B sooner rather than later.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I like K Morales a little more than Napoli as well, and they both have had injury issues, but the length of any deal is a concern. I know they could slide to DH once Papi retires, but paying a DH $13-15M a year is a little too much. I know I seem to be in the minority here, but I see Middy as our 1Bman longterm with Bogey sliding to 3B sooner rather than later.



    I'm starting to have doubts that Middlebrooks will ever be the hitter we thought he might be coming into this year.  I wonder if Hill's comparison of him to Mark Reynolds might just be accurate.

    If so he's not a good enough hitter for 1B.

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I like K Morales a little more than Napoli as well, and they both have had injury issues, but the length of any deal is a concern. I know they could slide to DH once Papi retires, but paying a DH $13-15M a year is a little too much. I know I seem to be in the minority here, but I see Middy as our 1Bman longterm with Bogey sliding to 3B sooner rather than later.

     



    I'm starting to have doubts that Middlebrooks will ever be the hitter we thought he might be coming into this year.  I wonder if Hill's comparison of him to Mark Reynolds might just be accurate.

     

    If so he's not a good enough hitter for 1B.

     



    Well, we still have Carp and Nava and even Papi at NL parks, in case Middy goes into a funk again.

    We also have Cecchini in the wings.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Which is not to say I don't like seeing WMB in the lineup. Smile  Nice little opposite field 3-run jack there.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Salty is over .800 for an OPS now!

    He's helping to put to bed the durability issue.

    Love the OBP over .330.

    Great season Salty!

     

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Salty is having an excellent season.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    It seemed  through mid summer Salty seldom came up with timely hits--hit when it didn't matter much but when it did...Since Aug. seems like he's reversed that.  I fall in here with trying to re-up him at a reasonable price or going one year at a higher figure.  He's become a much better catcher.  

    Critter

     
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