A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

     

     

    Is it just me, or does it appear to anyone else that we probably would be better off letting Ellsbury go and sign Choo? Again, we would get an even higher OBP rate and better pop, and he is primarily a RF. We can slot Victorino in CF or Bradley. We still have Nava for LF and even Carp can do it as well. We optimize the OBP and adding Choo and Abreu should improve this lineup even more.

     

     



    Choo might be cheaper too.

     

     

    He really stinks vs LHPs. (Huge split disparity)

    I am not sure we will sign him. Ben does not want to lose a pick.

     



    He is potentially cheaper and he has better pop and higher obp. And we have several guys who can play CF well. As much as I like Ellsbury, I think I'd probably take Choo over him for our needs in 2014. I love that .424 obp. 

     

    That is what sets us apart. Our team's collective OBP. Someone is just calculating simple permutations and saying..."this is the way to go" and it is working. Factoring all slots 1-9 we have the best lineup in baseball and Choo has an additional 50 points of OBP than Ellsbury.

    And we might get a pick if we let Napoli go, while adding another huge potential OBP resource with Abreu. We would lead the league in HBP by the way with Choo at 24 last year and Abreu and Victorino at around 30 each if I remember correctly. Even Nava gets hit quite often if I remember correctly. 



    Let's say we keep Salty. We get twp picks when Ells and Naps walk. Bye bye to Drew (no QO). We sign Abreu and Choo. We still have a net gain of 1 pick. We trade Dempster for a prospect and sign a guy like Edward Mujica

    C Salty/Ross

    1B Abreu/Carp (Middy/Nava/Papi)

    DH Papi

    2B Pedey

    3B Middy

    SS Bogey/Holt

    LF Nava/Gomes

    CF Vict/JBJ

    RF Choo (Vict)

    SP Buch, Lester, Peavy, Lackey, Doubront, Morales

    RP Mujica, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Workman or ???

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from darrylfries. Show darrylfries's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Let's say we keep Salty. We get twp picks when Ells and Naps walk. Bye bye to Drew (no QO). We sign Abreu and Choo. We still have a net gain of 1 pick. We trade Dempster for a prospect and sign a guy like Edward Mujica

     

    C Salty/Ross

    1B Abreu/Carp (Middy/Nava/Papi)

    DH Papi

    2B Pedey

    3B Middy

    SS Bogey/Holt

    LF Nava/Gomes

    CF Vict/JBJ

    RF Choo (Vict)

    SP Buch, Lester, Peavy, Lackey, Doubront, Morales

    RP Mujica, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Workman or ???

     

     

    This could work if.

     

    Boggy proves he ready my guess is that's possible but not certain

    Middlebrooks  doesn't get in the same funk at the plate he did for most of the year.

    Vic stays healthy he played in less games than Ells this year.

    Bradley doesn't need more time at AAA.  50 /50

    Abreu will be on the radar of a lot of teams especially the Yanks havn't heard that Boston has the inside track.

    Boras has said that he expects Choo to get over a 100 mil he won't be cheap either.

    Any serious injury to Pedoria Middlebrooks or Boggy would leave us no real replacements assuming of course the later two are playing evey day

     

    Why  after a year as the best team in baseball would we not spend some money and keep some of the players that got us here this year . I see us keeping at the mininum one or two of either Drew Ells or Nap. All three won't leave it's likely we'll sign two of the three

    Adding picks is great but they won't win the series next year.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    WAR by Position

    C: Salty T7th at 3.6 (0.1 away from 6th)

    1B: Naps 7th at 3.9

    2B: Pedroia 3rd at 5.4

    SS: 7th at 3.4

    3B: No 3Bman with 400+ PAs

    LF: Nava 16th at 1.8 (His fielding killed his WAR)

    CF: Ells 4th at 5.8

    RF: Vict 1st at 5.6

    DH: Papi 3rd at 3.8 (But Mauer is listed ahead)

     

    Team numbers:

    DH: 3rd at 3.8

    RF: 1st at 7.8

    CF: 6th at 6.0

    LF: 6th at 4.3

    3B: 23rd at 0.0

    SS: 7th at 3.8

    2B: 4th at 5.3

    1B: 5th at 5.1

    C: 5th at 4.7

     

    Amaingingly we are top 25% at all positions except 3B.

    Top 20% in 7 of 9 positions.

     

    On just the Batting Component of WAR:

    C- 8th

    1B: 6th

    2B: 4th

    SS: 4th

    3B: 19th

    LF: 2nd (Just like I called in ST: "Nava- Gomes combo- one thing I got right)

    CF: 7th

    RF: 2nd

    DH: 2nd

     

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Let's say we keep Salty. We get twp picks when Ells and Naps walk. Bye bye to Drew (no QO). We sign Abreu and Choo. We still have a net gain of 1 pick. We trade Dempster for a prospect and sign a guy like Edward Mujica

     

    C Salty/Ross

    1B Abreu/Carp (Middy/Nava/Papi)

    DH Papi

    2B Pedey

    3B Middy

    SS Bogey/Holt

    LF Nava/Gomes

    CF Vict/JBJ

    RF Choo (Vict)

    SP Buch, Lester, Peavy, Lackey, Doubront, Morales

    RP Mujica, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Workman or ???

    [/QUOTE]

    Not all that sure that someone will pay Naps and accept the fact that they are giving up a pick. Realistically, he was good for the Sox, but he still struck out a ton and had other issues (feet). I see Naps playing 3 or 4 out of every 5 games next year, especially as the year wears on. Do you really think that any team will give up a pick plus give Naps a 3 year contract?  I still think that his health will weigh in, and he would accept a QO from the Sox.

     

    Also not sure how Abreu fits in to the whole "team chemistry" concept. Cespedes seems like a great team mate. Puig seems like he needs a talking to every once in a while. I give Naps the clear edge in this department as well. He helps the team in a lot of ways.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Not all that sure that someone will pay Naps and accept the fact that they are giving up a pick. Realistically, he was good for the Sox, but he still struck out a ton and had other issues (feet). I see Naps playing 3 or 4 out of every 5 games next year, especially as the year wears on. Do you really think that any team will give up a pick plus give Naps a 3 year contract?  I still think that his health will weigh in, and he would accept a QO from the Sox.

     It doesn't matter what any team signs him for, as long as they sign him.

    All it takes is for him to think he will get a long deal to turn down the QO.

    My guess is we offer him the minimum QO and see what happens. If he says no, we'll go hard for Abreu or settle on K Morales.

     

    Also not sure how Abreu fits in to the whole "team chemistry" concept. Cespedes seems like a great team mate. Puig seems like he needs a talking to every once in a while. I give Naps the clear edge in this department as well. He helps the team in a lot of ways.

    I'm not sure either, but I am sure Ben is doing his homework.

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    RAYS VS. RED SOX

    Game 1 at Fenway Park on Friday: LHP Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75) vs. LHP Matt Moore (17-4, 3.29), 3:07 p.m., TBS.

    Game 2 at Fenway Park Saturday: RHP John Lackey (10-13, 3.52) vs. LHP David Price (10-8, 3.33), 5:37 p.m., TBS

    Game 3 at Tropicana Field Monday: RHP Clay Buchholz (12-1, 1.74) vs. My guess: RHP Alex Cobb. TBS

    Game 4 at Tropicana Field Tuesday (if necessary): RHP Jake Peavy (4-1, 4.04) vs. My guess: LHP Matt Moore. TBS

    Game 5: at Fenway Park on Thursday (if necessary) My Guess: LHP Lester vs LHP Price, TBS.

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Big game today. Nice to start out with a bang. We really took advantage of some sloppy defense: the sign of a winner.

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    We're off to a flying start and the one thing I was worried about--sluggish and rusty after layoff--didn't occur.  Actually thought there were moments we were particularly sharp like when Gomes scored on infield hit.  Completely agree with post game comments by Farrell to effect Gomes brought here because he's smart and knows how to leverage situations into winning baseball.  I didn't really get the Gomes signing even though I' ve watched him here in Bay Area in Oakland.  But after watching him all summer there IS SOMETHING about him and the straight numbers don't explain it.  When it matters most, he seems to come up big.  Also Salty seems to be continuing his late season timely hitting.  Team looks focused--go Lackey!

     

    Critter

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    We're off to a flying start and the one thing I was worried about--sluggish and rusty after layoff--didn't occur.  Actually thought there were moments we were particularly sharp like when Gomes scored on infield hit.  Completely agree with post game comments by Farrell to effect Gomes brought here because he's smart and knows how to leverage situations into winning baseball.  I didn't really get the Gomes signing even though I' ve watched him here in Bay Area in Oakland.  But after watching him all summer there IS SOMETHING about him and the straight numbers don't explain it.  When it matters most, he seems to come up big.  Also Salty seems to be continuing his late season timely hitting.  Team looks focused--go Lackey!

     

    Critter



    The one thing I did not like today was when Papi and Gomes watched there long fly balls like they were long HRs. Even if they were, I do not like that show-boating, but these weren't even HRs.

    Hard to complain about anything today.

    Lester looked sharp: great sign. He lost his concentration on the bad call before the HR to Rodriguez, but basically, he had 2 bad pitches all day.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Beautiful win today!

    Papi is the man.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    This team putting up those numbers against Price gives a lot of confidence going forward. We were weakest against LH pitching and now even that issue has seemingly gone away. This team IS relentless. Best offense in baseball right now. With Cabrera hurt I think we should be favored for at least the AL crown at this point.

    Personally, I like where we are against Tampa right now. Buchholz and Peavy going forward. I hope we close it out in 3. This team as dominated their best 2 pitchers so far. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    You know what I'd like to see....Nava getting a standing ovation the first time he comes up in the playoffs in Fenway. That's what I'm talking about. What a great tribute that would be for what he has already achieved.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Wow, they seem like a machine, just ripping pitching and turning dp's on defense.  One sits like someone waiting for a bomb to go off saying when is it going to happen.  Watched A's and Detroit after; admired pitching but frankly was bored by both offenses which couldn't get big hit.

    Critter

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moon, the one thing that bothered me about Friday's game was Vic not getting down a bunt.  Though usually old school in my outlook, I don't really get bothered by guys watching their HR's.  Of course I'd be peeved if the ball dropped in and they weren't running.  Papi has been doing this so long and when does he really run anyway?  I guess Price is mad but I sort of say so what--no one says anything when pitchers strike a guy out and go through all kinds of histrionics, posture, pound gloves, swear, thrash their arms, and dance off like the Tigers' pitcher did tonight.  For some reason that bothers me more than watching a HR and I also think it adds a little color to the game like the way Beltre swings the bat for example...Pitchers can throw at hitters the next time up but what can hitters do?  I've heard back in the day when players could bunt and you wanted to send a pitcher a message, bunt a slow one down the first base line and clean his clock when he came over to field it...

    Critter

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I was AT last nights game!! man it was amazing. the place was electricity. Our team is firing on all cylinders which is impressive considering the time off for some of these guys. Now we get Buch in game 3 at tampa, against a RHP. You can pretty much call this ALDS a done deal!

    now it's just a matter of who we want to face in the ALCS.. a great rotation and good offense in Detroit or a good rotation and great bullpen in Oakland? Either way, it's gonna be a tough series!

    GO SOX

     

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Moon, the one thing that bothered me about Friday's game was Vic not getting down a bunt.  Though usually old school in my outlook, I don't really get bothered by guys watching their HR's.  Of course I'd be peeved if the ball dropped in and they weren't running.  Papi has been doing this so long and when does he really run anyway?  I guess Price is mad but I sort of say so what--no one says anything when pitchers strike a guy out and go through all kinds of histrionics, posture, pound gloves, swear, thrash their arms, and dance off like the Tigers' pitcher did tonight.  For some reason that bothers me more than watching a HR and I also think it adds a little color to the game like the way Beltre swings the bat for example...Pitchers can throw at hitters the next time up but what can hitters do?  I've heard back in the day when players could bunt and you wanted to send a pitcher a message, bunt a slow one down the first base line and clean his clock when he came over to field it...

    Critter



    Bunting is not that easy. Shane normally does a good job, but messed up there. Small sample.

    I agree on the new wave of pitcher histrionics being just as bad as HR showboating.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Tiny two game sample size, but here are the numbers:

    OPS

    1.694 Ortiz

    1.350 Salty

    1.222 Ellsbury

    1.056 Victorino

    .833  Pedroia

    .804 Middlebrooks

    .778  Napoli

    .750  Ross

    .708  Gomes

    .667  Drew

     

    WHIP

    0.000 Uehara

    0.600 Breslow

    0.750 Tazawa

    0.783 Lester

    1.000 Dempster

    1.875 Lackey

     

    In 11.1 IP vs the tough Rays lefty starters, we had 17 hits and 4 BBs and 14 ERs!

    Sox4ever

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Jacoby got 3 hits, but his hardest hit was an out.

    Our fielding hurt us much in the same way it did with the Rays in Boston. Again, further evidence that measuring defense by only by errors made is the ultimate fool's gold.

    Papi: 3 walks.

    Longoria: 0 walks.

    Pedey 0 for 5, failed to get to 1B on the bunt (Napoli's fault as well). The play up the middle (not really Pedey's fault, but still). Tough night for the 2Bman.

    About tonight:

    I think Peavy gives us the win.

    I am surprised the Rays are going with Hellickson. My first choice would be Moore on short rest- he pitched 106 pitches in game 1 (and Price on normal rest for game 5, if needed). My second choice would be Chris Archer.

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If Morales gets a QO, Napoli certainly will.

    I doubt the Sox go after a guy like Morales, if we lose a pick to get him.

     

    Kendrys Morales Expected To Reject Qualifying Offer By  Steve Adams [October 8 at 4:41pm CST]

    Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik recently said that the team will "definitely" make a qualifying offer to designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales this winter, and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Morales will likely reject that offer in search of a multi-year deal on the free agent market.

    Morales isn't ruling the Mariners out as a potential landing place on a long-term deal, writes Heyman, nor are the Mariners ruling out agreeing to a multi-year pact with Morales. That may still be the most likely outcome, as Morales' defensive limitations and solid but unspectacular stats may not be a package that teams are anxious to surrender a draft pick to acquire. Last winter, Adam LaRoche struggled to find a lengthy deal after being tied to draft pick compensation, and he was coming off a .271/.343/.510, 33-homer season. Morales, in contrast, hit .277/.336/.449 with 23 home runs, though he's three and a half years younger than LaRoche.

     

    The Mariners showed interest in an extension for Morales over the summer, but he and agent Scott Boras had an asking price that was high enough to prevent the team from even extending a formal offer.

    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Yes, goodbye TB!!!  These last two nail biters may do us more good in the future than those first two clubbings.    ELLS and Vic have been lights out setting the table and  ELLS is my MVP to this point.  Peavey is a beast out there, what an addition.  Now a couple days to relax...

    Critter

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Great game to watch. Xander looked unfazed and ready to contribute more in the future. Solid games by Nava, Victorino, Breslow, Peavy, Koji...etc. 

    The Sox just continue to look like the best team in baseball.

    Did you guys see Reddick's hops on that HR ball. The guy is a tremendous athlete. He's just fun to watch. Too bad he doesn't make more contact. It's amazing how so many of our former players are big time contributors on the Oakland team. Coco was 4-5 today.

     
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