A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Pujols is a cautionary tale for any GM.  He was starting to slow down before he left SL. His pride had some play in the negotiations I think...

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Yadier is off the charts good. He might be the best of all time in throwing out runners. I wouldn't run on him. The guy is crazy good!

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    We need to crank some HR Crit! BOOM! Bogaerts tears one out over the RF fence so we can see Beltran pull a Tori! That was such a classic shot with his legs up in the air!

    BOOM! Middlebrooks does stratospheric research for Nasa with one of his Bombs! The Taliban will consider him a weapon of mass destruction!

    BOOM! Pedroia does the funky chicken around first after lifting one onto Landsdown street in LF!

    I am so psyched for this series and I know one thing for sure....

    I'm not half as psyched as you Crit! Good luck at the game!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    We did hit significantly better than St. Louis, especially the 50 HR discrepancy. We have more pop.

    And Stolen bases

    and better OBP

    I think St. Louis has the edge in the pitching.

    This really could go either way. 



    Having the pitcher hit almost everygame certainly skews the team stats, but really, the Cards don't have anyone to DH that scares me that much. After their top 6 hitters, they are pretty weak.

    The games in St. Louis will be tough, especially since we have to bench Papi or Napoli, but I still like our team better.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Sorrry guys, I was talking about Franklin Morales in post above.  One of the Globe's writers said during the TB series he was warming up and couldn't get a ball over the plate.  I was a little surprised he made the post season.  Let's hope he steps up and makes a big contribution in the next round.

    One thing I'm really looking forward to-how much if any change will Farrell make in using his roster against SL, NL team, a team he doesn't see that much?  Are we going to see people we haven't seen much in the playoffs...haven't both Dempster and Carp played in the NL for example?  What happens to Big Papi in SL?  Does he play first?  We just lose Naps for three games?



    Have we made any roster changes for the WS?

    I think Papi plays game 3 and 5, and Napoli plays game 4. Both will PH, if needed on the day(s) they sit.

    At StL:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Victorino

    3) Pedroia

    4) Papi or Napoli

    5) Nava or Gomes

    6) Salty

    7) Bogey or Middy

    8) Drew (possibly Bogey one game)

    9) Pitcher

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Yadier is off the charts good. He might be the best of all time in throwing out runners. I wouldn't run on him. The guy is crazy good!

     



    Plus, he's a top 3 offensive catcher today. That does move him "off the charts".

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    My predictions:

    Game 1:  Boston 5  StL  2  (Lester/Wainwright)

    Game 2:  Boston 6  StL 4   (Lackey/Wacha)

    Game 3:  StL 4  Boston 2 (Buchholz/Kelly)

    Game 4:  Boston 6  StL 3 (Peavy/Lynn)

    Game 5:  StL 4  Boston 3 (Lester/Wainwright)

    Game 6: Boston 14 StL 5 (Lackey/Wachu)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moon I see it the same way. Not going into your detail but I see us winning the first two at home, losing two out of three there, then wrapping it up in six. Wacha has been great but that bubble seems ready to burst. And their three and four starters are not in our league. I think Wainwright wins one in St. Lou and Peavy or Buch loses one there. I see low scoring games in game one and five and a lot more scoring in the rest.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon I see it the same way. Not going into your detail but I see us winning the first two at home, losing two out of three there, then wrapping it up in six. Wacha has been great but that bubble seems ready to burst. And their three and four starters are not in our league. I think Wainwright wins one in St. Lou and Peavy or Buch loses one there. I see low scoring games in game one and five and a lot more scoring in the rest.



    It could easily go 7, but I really feel good about our chances when it comes to any elimination game. We are very scrappy.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    WOW!  What more do I need to say about the game tonight?

    What I do need to say more about is this: Buch is evidently complaining about his shoulder and the post game announcers were pretty unsympathetic.  Schilling  was very pointed in his remarks but that's another conversation.  What caught my eye during the game was a statistic flashed saying SL had 20th worst record when facing lefties--did I get that right?  I'm wondering if we should be starting Doobie in the third game?  He wasn't chopped liver this year and didn't he improve as the year wore on?

    San Fran. signed "The Kid" Linsecum today for about 35 mil/2 yrs.  The papers say it's to put people in the seats because everyone likes the kid.  I'm sure that part of it will work out just fine.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    WOW!  What more do I need to say about the game tonight?

    What I do need to say more about is this: Buch is evidently complaining about his shoulder and the post game announcers were pretty unsympathetic.  Schilling  was very pointed in his remarks but that's another conversation.  What caught my eye during the game was a statistic flashed saying SL had 20th worst record when facing lefties--did I get that right?  I'm wondering if we should be starting Doobie in the third game?  He wasn't chopped liver this year and didn't he improve as the year wore on?

    San Fran. signed "The Kid" Linsecum today for about 35 mil/2 yrs.  The papers say it's to put people in the seats because everyone likes the kid.  I'm sure that part of it will work out just fine.



    Peavy is starting game 3, but maybe Doubie should start game 4.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Win tonight and put the pressure on the redbirds!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Good thing we only have to face Wachu one more time in the next 5 games.

    I still think we should be the favorites to win, despite losing home filed advantage and the DH for the next 3 games.

     

    I'd go with this for game 3:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Victorino

    3) Pedroia

    4) Ortiz 1B

    5) Nava 

    6) Salty

    7) Middlebrooks

    8) Bogey

    9) Pitcher

     

    Game 4:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Victorino

    3) Pedroia

    4) Napoli 

    5) Nava 

    6) Salty

    7) Bogey

    8) Drew

     

    9) Pitcher

     

    Game 5:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Victorino

    3) Pedroia

    4) Ortiz 1B

    5) Nava 

    6) Salty

    7) Bogey or Middlebrooks

    8) Drew

     

    9) Pitcher

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    At the risk of sounding like a basher, I think it's time to let Drew sit one out and get Nava back in the lineup. Drew's defense has been terrific, but he looks totally lost at the dish. And Peavy is more of a fly ball pitcher which minimizes the importance of infield defense somewhat. St. Louis' three and four starters are less than awesome, far less.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    At the risk of sounding like a basher, I think it's time to let Drew sit one out and get Nava back in the lineup....

    Yes, note my game 3 line-up.

    With Napoli sitting out, I'd upgrade with Nava over Gomes and Middy over Drew to hopefully take up some of the slack.

    Game 4, I'd go back to Drew coming off a 2 day rest. (Papi sits and Naps plays) Maybe Middy plays instead of Bogey for a game.



     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If I'm Farrell, I would start thinking about Ross's intangibles rather than those of Gomes. I'd start Nava every game we have left and Ross also. They wouldn't even try to do that double steal they did last game on Ross when Salty couldn't get the ball out of his glove he was so much in shock. He absolutely had them dead nuts if he could pull the trigger. But he didn't. And Ross probably catches that ball at home as well. Gomes shouldn't even have thrown that ball home. Even if it were perfect he wouldn't have gotten the guy. So much for his decision making. 

    Pedey is a winner. He makes great decisions instantly, when the pressure is on. Napoli is a winner and Ross is to. Those are championship level players. Ellsbury. Lester, Papi, Lackey...etc. Every team has championship level players and a few guys who don't mess up so bad that they cost you a title. Even one guy can really mess you up, for example Fielder basically blew that series with Detroit. We look like only one guy is messing up badly and he probably doesn't see action again ( Morales ). We have some guys barely carrying their weight but we have championship level players making the plays necessary to win championships. Have patience. They will come!

    We have more of those players than St. Louis in my opinion, from watching so far. We still have a strong shot here but something still tells me Nava has an important roll yet to play. We need his bat in that lineup. We need on base guys and an occasional double at an important time. Nava will give us the quality AB Farrell attributed to Gomes.

    I know people will think I'm just basing Salty again but as I've maintatined all along, I think Salty has some positive attributes like power in his bat but when the going gets tough I want a guy I can count on to make that play on the double steal. To pull the trigger on the throw because his head is in the game enough to know it is potentially going to happen. After all the signs were clearly there. Even Kozma had it together more than him at that moment in time.

    Ross has his you know what together. I want him in the game. Somebody wake Farrell up and give him a dictionary because he has no clue what intangibles really are.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Gomes looks the part. Nava is the real deal. So is Ross.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If I'm Farrell, I would start thinking about Ross's intangibles rather than those of Gomes.

    We know your views on Salty, but the team went 18-15 when Ross started this year. We went 9-9 in Lava starts. We went 70-41 in Salty starts.

    Salty did not lose that game last night. He blocked quite a few bad pitches and tried his hardest to make a play on a throw off the mark.

     

    I'd start Nava every game we have left and Ross also. They wouldn't even try to do that double steal they did last game on Ross when Salty couldn't get the ball out of his glove he was so much in shock. He absolutely had them dead nuts if he could pull the trigger. But he didn't.

    That was unfortunate.

    And Ross probably catches that ball at home as well.

    If any catcher catches that ball, the runner is safe and we lose anyway. Salty tried to catch and swoop tag as the only way to make that out and save the game. If anyone is to blame, and I hate to blame any one guy, it was the throw by Gomes.

    Gomes shouldn't even have thrown that ball home. Even if it were perfect he wouldn't have gotten the guy. So much for his decision making. 

    He was out with that same throw 3-4 feet to his right.

    Pedey is a winner. He makes great decisions instantly, when the pressure is on. Napoli is a winner and Ross is to. Those are championship level players. Ellsbury. Lester, Papi, Lackey...etc. Every team has championship level players and a few guys who don't mess up so bad that they cost you a title. Even one guy can really mess you up, for example Fielder basically blew that series with Detroit. We look like only one guy is messing up badly and he probably doesn't see action again ( Morales ). We have some guys barely carrying their weight but we have championship level players making the plays necessary to win championships. Have patience. They will come!

    I agree. We should still win.

    We have more of those players than St. Louis in my opinion, from watching so far. We still have a strong shot here but something still tells me Nava has an important roll yet to play. We need his bat in that lineup. We need on base guys and an occasional double at an important time. Nava will give us the quality AB Farrell attributed to Gomes.

    Without Naps in the line-up, we need to keep the better bat vs RHPs, Salt, in the line-up, put Nava in LF where he should have been all along, and Middy at 3B/Bogey at SS for game 3.

    I know people will think I'm just basing Salty again but as I've maintatined all along, I think Salty has some positive attributes like power in his bat but when the going gets tough I want a guy I can count on to make that play on the double steal.

    Way better OBP, SLG, and BA too. The worse arm does not mean Ross is better overall.

    To pull the trigger on the throw because his head is in the game enough to know it is potentially going to happen.

    The ball slipped out of his hand. It was not a mental thing, especially after they saw the SB was almost tried a pitch or two before.

    After all the signs were clearly there. Even Kozma had it together more than him at that moment in time.

    You are bashing, boom.

    Ross has his you know what together. I want him in the game. Somebody wake Farrell up and give him a dictionary because he has no clue what intangibles really are.

    Salty brings a lot of intangibles to the table: blocking bad pitches, pitch framing, much improved staff handling, much higher LD%, plus the standard OBP, BA, SLG%...

    Ross is a better thrower and perhaps a slightly better pitch-caller. Playing Ross over Salty is worse than playing Gomes over Nava based on "intangibles" or "hunches".

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Gomes looks the part. Nava is the real deal. So is Ross.



    Ross "looks the part". Salty is the real deal. So is Nava.

     

    Salty has had a remarkable season. He also has 5 RBI in 9 playoff games (rate of 100 per 620 PAs)

    Ross hit .216 with an OBP below .300.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Red Sox Prospects is right on the mark about Salty.  The opposition has green lights all around when that dude is behind the dish and everyone knows it.  That's what lost the game; he could have made the throw into the outfield had he been able to get it out of his glove, so it was probably better that he simply fumbled the thing.  When the pressure is on Salty wilts.  Ask yourself, do you want Salty coming to the plate with the team down a run in the late innings?  No, if one is honest, one does not want to see Salty coming to the plate in that situation.  Because one knows the chances are pretty much 99.999 % that he'll strike out with men on second and third.  This is just who he is.  He's a good guy, a team guy, has a prettier stat line this year than in previous years, but he's not a guy you want in the spotlight when the hit must be had, when the throw must be made.  Now.  Let's hope he shuts me up for good with a game 7 base clearing double in the 8th when we're down two runs. Surprised

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Red Sox Prospects is right on the mark about Salty. The opposition has green lights all around when that dude is behind the dish and everyone knows it. 

    They ran once- hardly the "green light".

     

    That's what lost the game; he could have made the throw into the outfield had he been able to get it out of his glove, so it was probably better that he simply fumbled the thing.  When the pressure is on Salty wilts. 

    Really? Wow Boom, WOW!

    Ask yourself, do you want Salty coming to the plate with the team down a run in the late innings? 

    He was one of our clutchest hitters in 2012. He has struggled this year, but he still has some big hits when it counts. 

    No, if one is honest, one does not want to see Salty coming to the plate in that situation. 

    You love seeing Ross come up?

    Because one knows the chances are pretty much 99.999 % that he'll strike out with men on second and third. 

    Clear bashing, boom.

    This is just who he is. 

    No, it's not. It's your warped perception of him.

    He's a good guy, a team guy, has a prettier stat line this year than in previous years, but he's not a guy you want in the spotlight when the hit must be had, when the throw must be made.  Now.  Let's hope he shuts me up for good with a game 7 base clearing double in the 8th when we're down two runs. Surprised




    Stats reflect performance. Prettier stats mean better performance. His OBP rose a ton this year as a direct result of increased BBs and LD%. Yes, he may have been a little luckier, but he has improved on all his weak areas except the arm.

    Ross and Lava are much worse. Much worse. (Not bashing)

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Pujols is a cautionary tale for any GM.  He was starting to slow down before he left SL. His pride had some play in the negotiations I think...



    It's not just the Pujols deal, look at all the top deals ever signed. How many really worked out 100% for the team? How many even 50%?

    1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
    2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 
    (2001-10)
    3. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
    4. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
    5. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
    6. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 
    (2001-10)
    7. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)
    8. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
    . . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)
    10. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)
    11. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21)
    12. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)
    13. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)
    . . . Matt Kemp, $160,000,000 (2012-19)
    15. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 
    (2011-20)
    16. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18)
    17. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 
    (2008-15)
    18. Zack Greinke, $147,000,
    000 (2013-18)
    19. Cole Hamels, $144,000,000 (2013-18) 
    20. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17)
    21. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)
    22. David Wright, $138,000,000 (2013-20)
    23. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)
    24. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)
    25. Matt Cain, $127,500,000 (2012-17)
    26. Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 
    (2008-14)
    . . . Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)
    . . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17)
    29. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16)
    . . . Josh Hamilton, $125,000,000 (2013-17)
    31. CC Sabathia, $122,000,000 (2012-16) 
    32. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)
    33. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)
    . . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16)
    . . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15)
    . . . Elvis Andrus, $120,000,000 (2015-22)
    37. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11)
    38. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)
    39. Dustin Pedroia, $110,000,000 (2014-21)
    40. Jose Reyes, $106,000,000 (2012-17) 
    41. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)
    . . . Ryan Braun, $105,000,000 (2016-20)
    43. Ryan Zimmerman, $100,000,000 (2014-19) 
    . . . Evan Longoria, $100,000,000 (2017-22)
    . . . Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)
    . . . Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10)
    47.  Adam Wainwright, $97,500,000 (2014-18)
    48. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12)
    49. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005)
    50. Barry Bonds, $90,000,000 (2002-06)
    . . . Torii Hunter, $90,000,000 (2008-12)
    . . . Chipper Jones, $90,000,000 (2001-06)
    . . . Hunter Pence, $90,000,000 (2014-18)
    . . . Scott Rolen, $90,000,000 (2003-10)
    . . . Ichiro Suzuki, $90,000,000 (2008-12)

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Red Sox Prospects is right on the mark about Salty. The opposition has green lights all around when that dude is behind the dish and everyone knows it. 

    They ran once- hardly the "green light".

     

    That's what lost the game; he could have made the throw into the outfield had he been able to get it out of his glove, so it was probably better that he simply fumbled the thing.  When the pressure is on Salty wilts. 

    Really? Wow Boom, WOW!

    Ask yourself, do you want Salty coming to the plate with the team down a run in the late innings? 

    He was one of our clutchest hitters in 2012. He has struggled this year, but he still has some big hits when it counts. 

    No, if one is honest, one does not want to see Salty coming to the plate in that situation. 

    You love seeing Ross come up?

    Because one knows the chances are pretty much 99.999 % that he'll strike out with men on second and third. 

    Clear bashing, boom.

    This is just who he is. 

    No, it's not. It's your warped perception of him.

    He's a good guy, a team guy, has a prettier stat line this year than in previous years, but he's not a guy you want in the spotlight when the hit must be had, when the throw must be made.  Now.  Let's hope he shuts me up for good with a game 7 base clearing double in the 8th when we're down two runs. Surprised




    Stats reflect performance. Prettier stats mean better performance. His OBP rose a ton this year as a direct result of increased BBs and LD%. Yes, he may have been a little luckier, but he has improved on all his weak areas except the arm.

    Ross and Lava are much worse. Much worse. (Not bashing)



    Moon, I'm not soxnewmex. I didn't write that post.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Red Sox Prospects is right on the mark about Salty. The opposition has green lights all around when that dude is behind the dish and everyone knows it. 

    They ran once- hardly the "green light".

     

    That's what lost the game; he could have made the throw into the outfield had he been able to get it out of his glove, so it was probably better that he simply fumbled the thing.  When the pressure is on Salty wilts. 

    Really? Wow Boom, WOW!

    Ask yourself, do you want Salty coming to the plate with the team down a run in the late innings? 

    He was one of our clutchest hitters in 2012. He has struggled this year, but he still has some big hits when it counts. 

    No, if one is honest, one does not want to see Salty coming to the plate in that situation. 

    You love seeing Ross come up?

    Because one knows the chances are pretty much 99.999 % that he'll strike out with men on second and third. 

    Clear bashing, boom.

    This is just who he is. 

    No, it's not. It's your warped perception of him.

    He's a good guy, a team guy, has a prettier stat line this year than in previous years, but he's not a guy you want in the spotlight when the hit must be had, when the throw must be made.  Now.  Let's hope he shuts me up for good with a game 7 base clearing double in the 8th when we're down two runs. Surprised




    Stats reflect performance. Prettier stats mean better performance. His OBP rose a ton this year as a direct result of increased BBs and LD%. Yes, he may have been a little luckier, but he has improved on all his weak areas except the arm.

    Ross and Lava are much worse. Much worse. (Not bashing)



    Moon, I'm not soxnewmex. I didn't write that post.



    Sorry, boom.

    My bad.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Yet again tonight, Wong gets on first and everyone in the stadium knows he is going to steal that base. I would have subbed in Ross right there, if not sooner. At that point in the game Salty was a huge liability.

    And when things start happening at the end of the game, Pedroia makes another stellar play and puts the throw exactly where it needed to be at home and Salty freaks out and throws the ball to third when he had no chance to get him out. Another bad decision in the heat of the moment. Pedroia is making great decisions in a nanosecond and executing the play perfectly. Salty is running around with his head cut off.

    I've been saying it all year...BUT YOU GUYS WOULDN'T LISTEN. Salty is not a guy you want on the field in the heat of the moment in a championship level competition. He is not good at low scoring games. Not good at controlling the running game. Not good at making good decisions under pressure. He has done well to get us here but when we need guys to make plays in the heat of the moment he is NOT THE GUY WE NEED.

    Once in a while he lucks out and knocks the ball through a drawn in infield when what he should have been trying to do is get the ball in the outfield. Once in a while he hits a bloop hit for a walk off. He rarely makes it happen when the game is on the line and I don't recall him ever doing something great to win a game. Executing any play well to win a game. Again, it's always a bloop hit or a grounder through the infield. Even the blind mouse finds the cheese sometimes.

    All I'm saying is ask yourself this. Would Ross have thrown that ball to 3rd with 2 outs and Koji pitching and the runner almost sliding by the time he attempts the throw? NWIH.

     
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