A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I don't like bashing Salty. He's a likeable guy. I just want to win. It's purely a decision based upon analysis. Salty is not the guy we need. We might win anyway but he is not our ideal choice by any means.

    I bet Ross starts the next game and he may well start the next 2 games.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    At least Farrell finally gave Nava some PT. That was clearly long overdue. It's also great to see Bogaerts emerge as a stud at this time of year. He looked solid on that triple. The guy gets his bat on the ball and makes good contact.  He has pop in his bat. When few other players are even putting the ball in play ( Drew for example ), Bogaerts is making decent contact and driving the ball, not to mention working the count and getting onbase with walks. And Nava is also. We have the players needed in place to win this thing, if we use them.

    We have a real stud in Bogaerts. A Hanley waiting to happen. Now do we realize it yet or does he have to prove it over and over before we figure it out. The kid needs to be in the lineup every day.

    It takes some players like Holiday, Pedroia, Ortiz, Molina etc...to win championships and Bogaerts is well on his way to being there already.

    I think we have a good shot to win tomorrow still. This thing isn't over. I think we are in the middle of a classic!

    I just assumed they would leave Doubront in there. In hindsight maybe that was the way to go.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Salty has 19 strikeouts in 32 AB this post season. Over 59% of the time he hasn't even put the ball in play. Unbelieveably bad.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I'm sorry I was so teed off yesterday. It just seemed like one bad decision after another. I would have left Doubront in there. I would have benched Salty for Ross, especially after Wong got on. We need to manage the team for the world series, not for an average game in June. To sit Nava for Gomes for one game after another against RH pitching was just flat out ignorant. In prior World series we didn't make such bad decisions and that is a big reason why we won. The manager actually counts in projecting team success. What works in the regular season does not necessarily work in the playoffs. 

    For example, Napoli is known for being able to hit quality pitching. I'm not a huge fan of his but the guy plays sharp defense and he can hit a 96 mph fastball. Give me bat speed at this time of the year. The studs need to emerge and then you play them. Go with the hot hand. It's a small sample size and if a guy shows that his head is in the game, as Pedroia always is, then utilize him!

    Not saying to bench Papi, for Napoli, because it is clear that he has the complete respect of St. Louis. Whoever is hitting behind Papi is going to get opportunities. This series in many ways revolves around who is hitting Papi in the lineup, and how he does.

    Ergo the consideration of Napoli at 3rd. They know that they want Napoli in the lineup badly. They might even be willing to experiment with him at 3rd, as incredible as that sounds.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I'm sorry I was so teed off yesterday. It just seemed like one bad decision after another. I would have left Doubront in there. I would have benched Salty for Ross, especially after Wong got on. We need to manage the team for the world series, not for an average game in June. To sit Nava for Gomes for one game after another against RH pitching was just flat out ignorant. In prior World series we didn't make such bad decisions and that is a big reason why we won. The manager actually counts in projecting team success. What works in the regular season does not necessarily work in the playoffs. 

    For example, Napoli is known for being able to hit quality pitching. I'm not a huge fan of his but the guy plays sharp defense and he can hit a 96 mph fastball. Give me bat speed at this time of the year. The studs need to emerge and then you play them. Go with the hot hand. It's a small sample size and if a guy shows that his head is in the game, as Pedroia always is, then utilize him!

    Not saying to bench Papi, for Napoli, because it is clear that he has the complete respect of St. Louis. Whoever is hitting behind Papi is going to get opportunities. This series in many ways revolves around who is hitting Papi in the lineup, and how he does.

    Ergo the consideration of Napoli at 3rd. They know that they want Napoli in the lineup badly. They might even be willing to experiment with him at 3rd, as incredible as that sounds.



    If Napoli plays anywhere but 1B, it will be catcher. Later in the game, they can pinch run for Papi and move Naps to 1B and bring in Ross for defense at catcher.

    Napoli's hip issue should not be a big concern, unless we plan on re-signing him for another year or more.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Salty has 19 strikeouts in 32 AB this post season. Over 59% of the time he hasn't even put the ball in play. Unbelieveably bad.

    [/QUOTE]

    He's due to bust out.

    Do is Drew.

    Drew has struck out 17 times in 44 ABs and 15 of his last 29, but at least Salty has gotten on base 9 of his last 35 PAs (Drew 5 of 44 and 3 of his last 29).

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    All right guys, down two to one in the WS.  Tonight is a big night and we need to bounce back.  I'm hoping Buch is ready to step up.  Go Sox!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Gutsy performance by Buch.

    Papi showing great leadership by pumping up the team.

    Drew with a big Sac Fly.

    Gomes being "the man".

    Doubie was fantastic.

    Lackey too.

    Koji, Koji, KOJI!

     

    We overcame some mistakes and sucked it up when we needed to, like we have all year long.

     

    We got the home field back, the DH back, Lester up next, and a never say die attitude.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    We need to keep the ball rolling. These are 2 heavyweight teams. It sure would help to win tomorrow.

    I hope Lackey is ok with pitching today. We will need him in Boston. It looks like Doubront can be a huge help going forward. He might end up being a key reason why we win. His performance so far probably boosts his worth by $15 mil over the course of his career. He has some bonafides now.

    We need asolid left hander and so far he has been our only solid left hander!

    What a series so far! One team wins, the other one comes back. The other team wins, the first team comes back. What a series!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We need to keep the ball rolling. These are 2 heavyweight teams. It sure would help to win tomorrow.

    I hope Lackey is ok with pitching today. We will need him in Boston. It looks like Doubront can be a huge help going forward. He might end up being a key reason why we win. His performance so far probably boosts his worth by $15 mil over the course of his career. He has some bonafides now.

    We need asolid left hander and so far he has been our only solid left hander!

    What a series so far! One team wins, the other one comes back. The other team wins, the first team comes back. What a series!

    You mean beyond Lester and Breslow? (Maybe not Breslow of late.)

    [/QUOTE]


     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Great game!  I've been touting Doobie since game one and think he'll play a lot the rest of the way.  The team seemed to loosen up a bit--Papi's post game comments seemed to say he thought they were playing too tight.  Does anyone know what's wrong with Buch?  Gomes said "He gave us all he could."  Is he injured or not?  I don't really get what's happening with him.  It feels like our hitters are getting more comfortable facing their relievers, where we usually rake in a game. 

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd like to have Napoli in every game but for obvious reasons he is not. I have to worry that due to his streaky nature that by the time we return to Fenway the bench time will render him near useless at the plate... or not.

    [/QUOTE]

    We have to do something for next year about our second best HR threat being a 1Bman. The games at NL parks kill our line-up, most notably the protection for Papi from the 5 slot. Didn't show up today, but still...

    It was nice having Youk at 1B being able to slide to 3B at NL parks back in the day.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Great game!  I've been touting Doobie since game one and think he'll play a lot the rest of the way.  The team seemed to loosen up a bit--Papi's post game comments seemed to say he thought they were playing too tight.  Does anyone know what's wrong with Buch?  Gomes said "He gave us all he could."  Is he injured or not?  I don't really get what's happening with him.  It feels like our hitters are getting more comfortable facing their relievers, where we usually rake in a game. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Papi's called huddle was perfect.

    I think Buch was sick a couple days back.

    Doubie has shown me up this year, but I did call that he needed a rest or he'd hit a wall late season. I'd love to see him hit the high conditioning routine this winter.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here is more good news. A psuedo # 1 projection of the Boston farm by Baseball America:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/a-simple-accounting-of-farm-system-impact-potential/

    Buchholz has shoulder issues. Dead arm. Whatever you want to call it. He also looks skinny to me. He seems to have lost some weight as if he were a guest star on "Breaking Bad" or something. 

    When he was up to the plate I was thinking maybe he would drop a drag bunt down. The guy can fly!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    That pitch to Gomes was a mistake pitch for sure but give the guy credit, he did hit it out.

    I've been impressed with Workman. The guy has been dealing with some high impact innings and it seems every time some of the St.Louis guys come up like Beltran, Holiday, Molina and Craig they put the wood on the ball somewhere and some of their secondary guys look like they are getting decent AB at least. They have a good lineup. Doubront has been their Achilles heel though. They do appear to have relative weakness against LH pitching. It's surprising that Breslow hasn't been effective. I wouldn't give up on him yet.

    Papi has been from another planet recently. There are men and there are boys and then there is Papi! 

    I loved that ball Bogaerts took to RF after the Gomes HR. The kid seems to have the goods. A strong case could be made to hit him after Papi. Already. Who do you think is going to hit the ball beyond Papi in this lineup right now? One would think Ellbury, Pedroia and Nava, maybe Victorino but Bogaerts appears to me to have put up the best AB. He has hit the ball harder than any of those guys recently.

    Which bodes so well for the future. He looks like a made to order #3 hitter to me. I bet he emerges quickly next year. Our next Nomar. I'm not expecting him to hit .350 like Nomar but the kid will hit with better average and pop than Drew for sure. He hasn't been that bad in the field either overall. Betweem Middlebrooks and Cechinni we probably have a solution at 3rd. We have a good chance next year as well in my opinion. Some of the young guys have stepped up ( Workman, Doubront, Bogaerts ) and this experience should help them.

    I find it fascinating that Doubront wanted to start this series. He said he didn't know how he would do relieving but seemed to imply maybe he should be starting. Maybe he was right guys. Maybe he hasn't gotten the respect he deserved after putting up better numbers than Peavy plus the Cards do appear weaker versus LH pitching. Something tells me if we go to game 7, Doubront could see a lot of action.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    That pitch to Gomes was a mistake pitch for sure but give the guy credit, he did hit it out.

    I've been impressed with Workman. The guy has been dealing with some high impact innings and it seems every time some of the St.Louis guys come up like Beltran, Holiday, Molina and Craig they put the wood on the ball somewhere and some of their secondary guys look like they are getting decent AB at least. They have a good lineup. Doubront has been their Achilles heel though. They do appear to have relative weakness against LH pitching. It's surprising that Breslow hasn't been effective. I wouldn't give up on him yet.

    Papi has been from another planet recently. There are men and there are boys and then there is Papi! 

    I loved that ball Bogaerts took to RF after the Gomes HR. The kid seems to have the goods. A strong case could be made to hit him after Papi. Already. Who do you think is going to hit the ball beyond Papi in this lineup right now? One would think Ellbury, Pedroia and Nava, maybe Victorino but Bogaerts appears to me to have put up the best AB. He has hit the ball harder than any of those guys recently.

    Which bodes so well for the future. He looks like a made to order #3 hitter to me. I bet he emerges quickly next year. Our next Nomar. I'm not expecting him to hit .350 like Nomar but the kid will hit with better average and pop than Drew for sure. He hasn't been that bad in the field either overall. Betweem Middlebrooks and Cechinni we probably have a solution at 3rd. We have a good chance next year as well in my opinion. Some of the young guys have stepped up ( Workman, Doubront, Bogaerts ) and this experience should help them.

    I find it fascinating that Doubront wanted to start this series. He said he didn't know how he would do relieving but seemed to imply maybe he should be starting. Maybe he was right guys. Maybe he hasn't gotten the respect he deserved after putting up better numbers than Peavy plus the Cards do appear weaker versus LH pitching. Something tells me if we go to game 7, Doubront could see a lot of action.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Buch is done for the series.

    Game5 Lester

    Game 6 Lackey

    Game 7 Peavy/Doubront/ whoever

    Let's hope we win in 6!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    With the series going back to Boston soon... things look decent. Another Best of Three coming up! Go Sox!

    [/QUOTE]

    Back to home field advantage and the DH in 2 of the next 3 games.

    I hope Wainwright is off again tonight.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Game 6:

    1) Ellsbury CF

    2) Pedroia 2B

    3) Ortiz DH

    4) Napoli 1B

    5) Gomes LF

    6) Nava RF

    7) Bogaerts 3B

    8) Drew SS

    9) Ross C

    (If Victorino plays, I bat him 6th and flip a coin on who plays LF.)

    I like Papi 3rd and wanted him there all year long.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Sox hitting .226 this postseason.

    Can we finally all agree, it's almost all about pitching?

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I hope this doesn't make me a bad fan but in all truthfulness I didn't think the RS would win tonight-- their (SL) ace on the mound after a bad start, no home field advantage, a probable loss then back to Boston with a huge fight on our hands.  Well I was completely wrong about this team  as I have often been before.  Speaking of being wrong, I didn't want the Papi signing--thought we'd pushed the envelope far enough with age, injuries, etc.  Was ok after the fact but not before.   Where would we be now without his bat and leadership?  I think the guys actually look more comfortable now after his pep talk.  I am a big fan of Workman and Doobie.  Obviously they both have Farrell's trust right now.  I think Workman could win 12/13 games for us next year but maybe they think he's a better reliever.

    Back to Boston with the DH on our side.  I hope ALL pitchers are available Wed--hoping we can get a few runs up on them and close it out.  They keep showing that stat that SL doesn't do very well vs. lefties...

    They keep throwing that curve that starts off the plate then breaks across the edge--which Ross hit for his double and which Lester is also throwing at them.  I would say it's working--do they think we're going to wait for a fastball?  Bogey and Pedey have been aggressive with that pitch and are getting hits.  

    The Friendly Confines Baby, Go Sox!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I hope this doesn't make me a bad fan but in all truthfulness I didn't think the RS would win tonight-- their (SL) ace on the mound after a bad start, no home field advantage, a probable loss then back to Boston with a huge fight on our hands.  Well I was completely wrong about this team  as I have often been before.  Speaking of being wrong, I didn't want the Papi signing--thought we'd pushed the envelope far enough with age, injuries, etc.  Was ok after the fact but not before.   Where would we be now without his bat and leadership?  I think the guys actually look more comfortable now after his pep talk.  I am a big fan of Workman and Doobie.  Obviously they both have Farrell's trust right now.  I think Workman could win 12/13 games for us next year but maybe they think he's a better reliever.

    Back to Boston with the DH on our side.  I hope ALL pitchers are available Wed--hoping we can get a few runs up on them and close it out.  They keep showing that stat that SL doesn't do very well vs. lefties...

    They keep throwing that curve that starts off the plate then breaks across the edge--which Ross hit for his double and which Lester is also throwing at them.  I would say it's working--do they think we're going to wait for a fastball?  Bogey and Pedey have been aggressive with that pitch and are getting hits.  

    The Friendly Confines Baby, Go Sox!

    [/QUOTE]

    I hope it doesn't go 7. Lackey seems like our best bet, even though we face Wachu for game 6.

    I hope Victorino is healthy to play the spacious Fenway RF. He's really made a huge difference out there on defense.

    Napoli back in the line-up is fantastic. The Cards gain much less with the DH over the pitcher hitting than we do.

    Probably Gomes in LF if Shane goes out there to play.

    Salty did very well with Lackey all year, but Ross has to be "the man" game 6.

    I really loved seeing Papi bat 3rd as that is where I wanted him all year. The Cards had Berltran hitting 4th last night, and he got one less PA than the 1-3 hitters (good news for us). I wouldn't want Papi to be left on deck as the game ends.

    Maybe we can go with this:

    1) Ells

    2) Pedey

    3) Ortiz

    4) Napoli

    5) Gomes

    6) Victorino (Nava)

    7) Bogey

    8) Drew

    9) Ross

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Isn't it time for Gomes to sit the heck down? My God, do we have to roll him out there forever? He's hit 1 HR in his entire post season history and done little else well, in spacious St. Louis RF where we have been lucky to have not been burned defensively yet. Can't we play Victorino in RF and Nava in LF and go with the numbers? Nava has had good AB as compared to Gomes. I'd much rather have Nava in the 5 slot as compared to Gomes. 

    I did some analysis of where we might spend our money next winter and to be honest who the heck knows? McCann? Ellsbury? Choo? If I had to pick one I think it would be Choo. the guy gets on base better than anyone available and he's a decent defender with some pop. And is young. Which player helps our team most next year? I think it might be Choo.

    Is it just me or does Ortiz look like a better fielder than Fielder? The guy could probably be a serviceable 1st baseman for us next year if we wanted. They probably just don't want him to get hurt or they would put him there potentially, which would open up the DH slot for a reserve OF, or someone else. Not saying it could happen because it won't but he is decent injury backup at 1st and we should probably look at him that way next year.

     
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