A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Does anyone careto comment on Farrell?  Watching him manage at Toronto I frankly wasn't all that impressed.  I sort of thought ok good pitching coach but a liile out of his depth as a manager.  I saw his hire as "safe" as known quanity returns.  Well he either learned an awful lot up there or this is a perfect place for him or he's just smarter than some people (me) realized.  How much of this are the coaches he brought?  Have you discussed that here this summer?  HIS COACHES SEEM TO GO ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS QUIETLY WITH LITTLE fanfare.  The hand on the tiller seems to feel the nuances of wind and currents and respond firmly but effortlessly.                           Critter

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Moon, I'm surprised at how high Nava and Lava are on your OPS list.  Nava is like the quiet assassin, little choir boy going about his deadly business.  And Lava seems at this point that on both sides of the ball he's ready if we lose Salty.  I'm just amazed at how many players are "emerging" at once.  When we see players like Pedey and Papi falling in OPS, someone steps up.

    Critter



    When healthy, Nava has always had a high OBP and very good OPS. I'm not that surprised. Lava has always been a big question mark to me on offense. I hope he stays in a groove. I see him as the possible DH in 2015. Having a DH that can catch allows for more PH'ing for the 2 catchers in late inning situation.

    That beings said, if Salty returns, or we sign McCann, I think Lava will be traded. We have Ross for 2014 and Swihart, Denny, and Vazquez for 2015 and beyond.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Does anyone careto comment on Farrell?  Watching him manage at Toronto I frankly wasn't all that impressed.  I sort of thought ok good pitching coach but a liile out of his depth as a manager.  I saw his hire as "safe" as known quanity returns.  Well he either learned an awful lot up there or this is a perfect place for him or he's just smarter than some people (me) realized.  How much of this are the coaches he brought?  Have you discussed that here this summer?  HIS COACHES SEEM TO GO ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS QUIETLY WITH LITTLE fanfare.  The hand on the tiller seems to feel the nuances of wind and currents and respond firmly but effortlessly.                           Critter



    Even though Farrell had two losing seasons with Toronto, I liked the Red Sox hiring him as their new coach.  

    Anyway, thank you Toronto for letting Farrell pursue his "dream job" at Boston.   LOL  Laughing

     

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I agree Crit! We even traded a guy who was emerging bigtime in Iglesias. This team is looking good!

    I sincerely should apologize to Mr. Salty because I've been on his case pretty bad for 2 years now. It's like Softy and Ellsbury almost I guess, with the only difference being that all along I thought Lavarnway was at least as good and you know what, the jury is still out on that one while with Softy and Ellsbury that boat floated away a long time ago!

    Salty has hit better than I thought he would, and even fielded better than I thought he would be but he still is not appreciably better than Lavarnway to me. I think Lavarnway has an edge in throwing out runners and maybe Salty blocks the ball better. In the IQ department I think Lavarnway probably has an edge and in the long run I'd bet on that. The ability to make adjustments and good decisions and I think calling a game should be in Lavarnway's favor long term.

    And why not take the cash saved and if we get a pick out of it great! That is one pick I'd be very happy to take.

    What is really super to see to me is the reemergence of Middlebrooks as a potential middle of the order stud and Bogaerts as smoothly transitioning at the mlb level. Those 2 guys could be huge for this neam next year and keep this speedboat at 100 knots. And Workman has looked great to me as a consistent strike thrower. Even Britton hasn't been bad.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Updated after Lester option taken...

     

     

    2014 Red Sox Player Payroll Budget (Luxury Tax Dollars)

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $6M Thornton (Club option or $1M buyout- count as $1M or +$5M)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub TOTAL: $121M +$5M option= $126M

     

    Estimated Arbitration (2013 salary):

    $4.5M  Bailey 3 of 3 ($4.1M)

    $2.3M  Morales 3 of 3 ($1.49M)

    $2.2M  Miller 3 of 3 ($1.48M)

    $1.5M  Tazawa 1 of 3 ($0.82M)

    $1.5M  Carp 1 of 3 ($0.51M)

    Estimated Arb Total: $12M

    Estimated Pre-Arb Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava, Villarreal, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Kalish, Bradley, Beato, Berry, Bogaerts, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:

    $145M no Thornton

    Or

    $150M with Thornton

     

    2014 FAs

    $13M Napoli (including $5M in bonuses)

    $9.5M Drew

    $9M Ellsbury

    $7.04M Hanrahan

    $4.5M Saltalamacchia

     

    $1.5M McDonald

     

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    Does anyone careto comment on Farrell?  Watching him manage at Toronto I frankly wasn't all that impressed.  I sort of thought ok good pitching coach but a liile out of his depth as a manager.  I saw his hire as "safe" as known quanity returns.  Well he either learned an awful lot up there or this is a perfect place for him or he's just smarter than some people (me) realized.  How much of this are the coaches he brought?  Have you discussed that here this summer?  HIS COACHES SEEM TO GO ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS QUIETLY WITH LITTLE fanfare.  The hand on the tiller seems to feel the nuances of wind and currents and respond firmly but effortlessly.                           Critter

     



    Even though Farrell had two losing seasons with Toronto, I liked the Red Sox hiring him as their new coach.  

     

    Anyway, thank you Toronto for letting Farrell pursue his "dream job" at Boston.   LOL  Laughing

     

     



    I think harness wanted Farrell last year.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I agree Crit! We even traded a guy who was emerging bigtime in Iglesias. This team is looking good!

    I sincerely should apologize to Mr. Salty because I've been on his case pretty bad for 2 years now. It's like Softy and Ellsbury almost I guess, with the only difference being that all along I thought Lavarnway was at least as good and you know what, the jury is still out on that one while with Softy and Ellsbury that boat floated away a long time ago!

    Salty has hit better than I thought he would, and even fielded better than I thought he would be but he still is not appreciably better than Lavarnway to me. I think Lavarnway has an edge in throwing out runners and maybe Salty blocks the ball better. In the IQ department I think Lavarnway probably has an edge and in the long run I'd bet on that. The ability to make adjustments and good decisions and I think calling a game should be in Lavarnway's favor long term.

    And why not take the cash saved and if we get a pick out of it great! That is one pick I'd be very happy to take.

    What is really super to see to me is the reemergence of Middlebrooks as a potential middle of the order stud and Bogaerts as smoothly transitioning at the mlb level. Those 2 guys could be huge for this neam next year and keep this speedboat at 100 knots. And Workman has looked great to me as a consistent strike thrower. Even Britton hasn't been bad.



    We still disagree on Salty's defense and intangibles regarding the handling of the staff. Lava may have a higher IQ, but baseball IQ is different, and even if Lava will be better "longterm", there is usually a very long learning curve on the handling a staff skillset. Can a contending team really allow Lava 1-4 years to get to where Salty is with this staff right now?

    I get what you are saying about the trade off between Lava (Ross/Vazquez) + a comp pick, assuming Salty turns down a QO vs Salty/Ross (Lava/Vazquez), and as long as we spend the Salty money wisely in upgrades elsewhere, I'm fine with the idea. That fact that we have Vazquez, Swihart and Denny down the line, makes spending big and long on Salty risky, although we can always trade Salty if the kids prove their might.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here's a look at OPS against with starting pitchers with Salty since 2011:

     

              2011  2012  2013

    Lester  .717  .869  .682

    Lackey .874   n/a  .695

    Aceves .642  .752  .922

    Buch     .662  .935  .555

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    The Salty discussion is not unlike those for almost any position; regardless of view, we have strong people on the horizon who give us more options--sign if we want, stop gap and wait for those coming, go with the young gun, or take talent and trade.  Have we ever had a stronger farm?  Maybe right handed power is stiil an organizational need.  Is Vasquez supposed to have power?

    Critter

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    My pro Lava comments don't mean I'm for dumping Salty.  He's turned himself into quite a catcher, been durable, and a workhorse this year.  It wasn't so long ago some were questioning his stamina.  Moon's figures above show he's helping improve the pitching.  I think they trust and respect him.  My point is just that the RS are developing so much organizational depth, that the loss of almost anyone can be overcome.

    Critter

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    My pro Lava comments don't mean I'm for dumping Salty.  He's turned himself into quite a catcher, been durable, and a workhorse this year.  It wasn't so long ago some were questioning his stamina.  Moon's figures above show he's helping improve the pitching.  I think they trust and respect him.  My point is just that the RS are developing so much organizational depth, that the loss of almost anyone can be overcome.

    Critter



    I totally agree, but realize that we can not leave every open position to the kids or guys like Carp and Lava and expect to stay a first place team for much longer. Ben's biggest decision this year will be which positions to trust to youth and which need an out-of-system infusion (bridge or otherwise) or capable back-up.

    My guess is Bogaerts (SS/3B) and Middlebrooks (3B/1B) will be given every opportunity to win a FT job in 2014. If Boggy is at SS and Middlebrooks at 3B, I think Ben will sign a very capable defensive SS as back-up (probably for cheap dollars). Since Boggy can play SS or 3B and Middy 3B or 1B, that leaves 3 positions that can be filled by the best available FA or trade candidate. Nice luxury: sign the best of the 3 positions and fit the others around him. This is one spot we can try to obtain that elusive middle of the order giant we've needed for years.

    Beyond those two guys, I doubt Ben hands JBJ or Lava a FT role. He may allow them to earn it, but he will have a very capable veteran there as well. We could try and fill one of these slots with that "giant" (Stanton?) , or go with very good players like McCann or Salty at catcher or Pence, Choo, or Beltran for RF and move Victorino to CF. 

    I'd say the odds are close to zero, we go with all 4 kids as FT'ers (Boggy, Middy, Lava, & JBJ). I think even going with 3 is risky for 2014. If we do go with 3, we'd better fill the 4th slot with a giant among giants. For example, let's say we trade JBJ and other prospects for Stanton, I'd be ok with Carp/Nava/Papi/Lava/Middy at 1B, and Boggy & Middy on the leftside FT (with a capable utility IF'er). Then, bring back Salty or sign McCann and spend some money on pen upgrades and CF depth.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I get what you're saying Moon.  Not too many kids all at once.  Let me throw this one at you.  Do we really have a #1 pitcher?  I say no.  Collectively a better staff than most.  But do we have a proven #1?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    I get what you're saying Moon.  Not too many kids all at once.  Let me throw this one at you.  Do we really have a #1 pitcher?  I say no.  Collectively a better staff than most.  But do we have a proven #1?



    I've been saying for years we need a true number 1, but right now we have a bunch of top number 2's and 3's, and I don't see any FA pitchers that are true number 1's. Trading for a number 1 is nearly impossible or way too costly, so my philosophy for this winter is totally opposite of any winter I have ever know. We need to focus on our other high need area: a big RH'd force in the middle of our line-up. Most likely it will come in the form of a 1Bman or RF'er (Shane moves to CF), but we could also find a CF'er, 3Bman or SS somehow and juggle others around to fill the other slots.

    If you look at the ERA- and WHIP leaders this year and over the last 2 years combined, we have several starters in the top 30 or top 60. In theory, these are #1 or #2 starters in MLB (5 starter times 30 teams). Other teams have better starters, but I can't see how we can come up with a true ace without opening a few more holes elsewhere.

    Any ideas?

     
  14. This post has been removed.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moon I agree there's not a big ace out there and getting one is too expensive.  Maybe after tonight Buch is our ace--but I hate to call him that until he can put acouple whole seasons together.  With Peavey and Buch ...and Doobie and Workman coming along we can be very competitive.  The coaching staff seems to be right on top of the pitchers--going longer into games,pulling guys quickly when trouble arises, pulling them from the line (Doubie) or sending them down (Aceves) when not producing, bad attitde, etc.  I feel good about this pitching next year as long as we can avoid injuries but every team has to deal with that...

    Critter

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Moon I agree there's not a big ace out there and getting one is too expensive.  Maybe after tonight Buch is our ace--but I hate to call him that until he can put acouple whole seasons together.  With Peavey and Buch ...and Doobie and Workman coming along we can be very competitive.  The coaching staff seems to be right on top of the pitchers--going longer into games,pulling guys quickly when trouble arises, pulling them from the line (Doubie) or sending them down (Aceves) when not producing, bad attitde, etc.  I feel good about this pitching next year as long as we can avoid injuries but every team has to deal with that...

    Critter



    Out of 144 starting pitchers with 80+ IP this year, here's how our starters place in 2 key areas:

    ERA-

    1) Buchholz  41 (Not counting tonight's 5 IP & 0 ERs)

    35) Lackey   83  (82nd ranked in 2nd half at 108)

    60) Lester    92  (15th raked in 2nd half at 60)

    68) Doubront 94 (89th ranked in 2nd half at 109)

    76) Peavy    96  (53rd ranked in 2nd half at 80)

    104) Dempster  114

    WHIP

    6) Buchholz 1.02

    16) Peavy    1.10  (17th in 2nd half at 1.02)

    42) Lackey   1.20  (65th in 2nd half at 1.29)

    79) Lester     1.31 (43rd in 2nd half at 1.20)

    105) Doub     1.38 (89th in 2nd half at 1.42)

    123) Demp    1.45 (106th in 2nd half at 1.50)

     

    Looking at these two seasonal numbers, It looks like...

    Buch is a solid #1

    Lester is a solid #2 (Close to a low number 1 in 2nd half)

    Peavy is a solid #2 (Higher if you value WHIP more)

    Lackey is a solid #2 (number 3 in 2nd half)

    Doubront is a low #3

    Dempster is a low #4

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moon just read your comments on another thread about trading one of our starters--you didn't name one but I inferred maybe Lackey as wecould get more for him.  Are you talking about trading for a "BoppeR" or another pitcher?

    Critter

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Moon just read your comments on another thread about trading one of our starters--you didn't name one but I inferred maybe Lackey as wecould get more for him.  Are you talking about trading for a "BoppeR" or another pitcher?

    Critter



    I just replied to that comment about Lackey on said thread.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I wasn't paying attention on Monday when ESPN elevated the Red Sox to the top slot in its power rankings:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/powerrankings

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to hill55's comment:

    I wasn't paying attention on Monday when ESPN elevated the Red Sox to the top slot in its power rankings:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/powerrankings

     



    Who-da-thunk-it?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    What division is better?

     

    AL East

    .603 BOS

    .545 TBR

    .535 BAL

    .531 NYY

    .465 TOR

    4 teams over .530 but perhaps only 1 playoff team.

     

    NL Central

    .583 STL

    .576 PIT

    .562 CIN

    .434 MIL

    .431 CHI

    3 teams over .560 and playoff bound.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III


    Love the salary numbers--thanks, moonslav.

    I think the front office will be driven by a desire to keep as much of this team as possible without driving up the overall salaries too much.  They will certainly want to avoid paying luxury tax. 

    Keeping everyone is obviously jeopardized by all those guys becoming free agents, especially Ellsbury, Napoli, Drew, and Salty.  I am a huge Ellsbury fan, but think he is the least likely to be retained because of his WAR and ability to command $100M or more in salary.  It helps that Bradley had a AAA OPS over .850 this year and plays a good CF.  Just guessing, but I think the Sox keep Drew and and Salty and play Bogaerts at 3B and Middlebrooks at 1B next year.  So I think Napoli goes elsewhere even though right now he is having a heckuva September and overall a pretty good year, plus he handles 1B well.  I also see Gomes, Nava, Ross, etc returning.  Salty stays because right now I think he is the best defensive and offensive catcher on the team. 

    If Buchholz can just stay healthy, he is a bonafide ace with three very capable guys after him in Lester, Peavy, and Lackey.  Plus Doubront might just get into shape for a whole season next year.  So the rotation looks good with or without Dempster.  And the bullpen should be OK too.  I see no big investments in pitching and maybe even use one or more for trades.

    The undeniable but hard to measure factor about this team is the chemistry.  If Ellsbury and Napoli leave, does that affect the chemistry adversely? 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:


    Love the salary numbers--thanks, moonslav.

    I think the front office will be driven by a desire to keep as much of this team as possible without driving up the overall salaries too much.  They will certainly want to avoid paying luxury tax. 

    Keeping everyone is obviously jeopardized by all those guys becoming free agents, especially Ellsbury, Napoli, Drew, and Salty.  I am a huge Ellsbury fan, but think he is the least likely to be retained because of his WAR and ability to command $100M or more in salary.  It helps that Bradley had a AAA OPS over .850 this year and plays a good CF.  Just guessing, but I think the Sox keep Drew and and Salty and play Bogaerts at 3B and Middlebrooks at 1B next year.  So I think Napoli goes elsewhere even though right now he is having a heckuva September and overall a pretty good year, plus he handles 1B well.  I also see Gomes, Nava, Ross, etc returning.  Salty stays because right now I think he is the best defensive and offensive catcher on the team. 

    If Buchholz can just stay healthy, he is a bonafide ace with three very capable guys after him in Lester, Peavy, and Lackey.  Plus Doubront might just get into shape for a whole season next year.  So the rotation looks good with or without Dempster.  And the bullpen should be OK too.  I see no big investments in pitching and maybe even use one or more for trades.

    The undeniable but hard to measure factor about this team is the chemistry.  If Ellsbury and Napoli leave, does that affect the chemistry adversely? 



    So, basically this is your idea...

    C Salty/Ross

    1B Middlebrooks/Carp (Papi @ NL)

    2B Pedroia/Holt

    3B Boggy/Middlebrooks/Holt

    SS Drew/Boggy/Holt

    LF Nava/Gomes/Carp

    CF JBJ/Victorino

    RF Victorino/Nava

    DH Papi

    It's just about the same team as now, but minus Naps and Ells and plus JBJ and Boggy FT.

    I seriously doubt we let Ellsbury and Napoli go without getting anyone new to replace one. I'm not saying this isn't a very promising team: it is, but I doubt Ben hands over 3 slots to young players (Middy, Boggy, JBJ) and expanded roles by Carp and others.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Just finished watching great game vs. TB.  Wow, SOMETHING is going on here which reminds me of 2007 and The Idiots.  RS seem to have transcended individuals into total team approach.  THough in philosophy I don't think teams should sit still--and they usually don't because of natural order of events, retirement, player leaves for bigger payday, etc.--but right now I'm with Max--try   to bring everyone back within reason, set a fair boundary for ELls for example--for me it would be 15-16 mil/5years, and try to keep these guys together.  This would protect from too many kids becoming starters at once and a allow the vets to teach them "how to win."  Very impressed with story during tonight's game of Gomes taking Middie under hIs wing and teaching him pre-game is for mental prep, batting cage concentration--and not cell phones.  Some of these "lower profile" vets should stay another year and teach more lessons--Vic, how to play and contribute with injury,Carp, how to be ready when you're not starting, Naps, how to handle the highs and lows of the season, etc.

    Critter

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    This team is just stomping on the Rays, who to be honest do not appear to have their heads in the game. Maddon has lost control of this team. They are just going through the motions. Definitely not as sharp as they have been in the past. Are they just biding their time until free agency? Carp hits that HR and it seemed like the entire stadium rocked, .....in Tampa Bay.

    Look at the make up of that team now with their new SS who has never seemed to care, the new kid RF who does not appear to be paying attention and some others who just seem to be going through the motions. They are not the same Rays. They traded for guys who don't care.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share