A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

    I agree that if Bogey & Middy are here, they will have FT jobs, however, I could see Middy being traded.

    We could sign Drew, Naps and Salty, and maybe a lesser OF'er and put Bogey at 3B.

    Sox4ever



    Agree to disagree on Middy.  Right handed power like that doesn't come around very often.  From what I've heard, he's pretty much untouchable.  The Sox organization was also extremely impressed with how he handled his demotion and feel that he can be a "face of the franchise type" for a long time.  Iglesias, not so much. Middy started believing the hype a little bit and was quickly reminded by Gomes that you don't prepare for a game by texting your buddies.  He clearly got the "message."  I'm well aware of Cecchini, but I don't think his development will affect Middy at all.  They will find a place for his bat.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

     

    One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

    I agree that if Bogey & Middy are here, they will have FT jobs, however, I could see Middy being traded.

    We could sign Drew, Naps and Salty, and maybe a lesser OF'er and put Bogey at 3B.

    Sox4ever

     



    Agree to disagree on Middy.  Right handed power like that doesn't come around very often.  From what I've heard, he's pretty much untouchable.  The Sox organization was also extremely impressed with how he handled his demotion and feel that he can be a "face of the franchise type" for a long time.  Iglesias, not so much. Middy started believing the hype a little bit and was quickly reminded by Gomes that you don't prepare for a game by texting your buddies.  He clearly got the "message."  I'm well aware of Cecchini, but I don't think his development will affect Middy at all.  They will find a place for his bat.

     

    I'm not for trading or benching Middy, so I don't see us as disagreeing.

    The same reasons we love Middy is the same reason some other GM loves him too.... maybe more!

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

     

     

    I think we are sitting in the catbird's seat. I don't think it will hurt us that much if we lose Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty. Ellsbury would hurt the most but that is also over $35 mil in savings plus 4 top picks. I would definitely offer every one of them a QO and hope to God they walk. 

     

     



    This is the kind of thinking I can't completely understand.  Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty are all having strong seasons and making major contributions to a title run. 

     

     

    'Out with the old and in with the new' always sounds great though.

      

     

     



    We can do a lot with $35 mil in the FA market and if we can also net 4 top picks I'm all for it. None of these guys are irreplaceable.

     

    Abreu may well be > Napoli

    Bogaerts may well be > Drew

    A Pence hitting in Fenway may well be very close to Ellsbury at a much cheaper cost

    Salty < McCann

     

    Change can be a good thing.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:



    We can do a lot with $35 mil in the FA market and if we can also net 4 top picks I'm all for it. None of these guys are irreplaceable. 

    Abreu may well be > Napoli

    Bogaerts may well be > Drew

    A Pence hitting in Fenway may well be very close to Ellsbury at a much cheaper cost

    Salty < McCann 

    Change can be a good thing.



    Change is a good thing when things need changing.

    Anyway I'm pretty confident in Cherington making good decisions.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    One thing is fairly certain, though.  Barring injury or absolute implosion in Spring Training, Middlebrooks & Boegarts will be in the line-up somewhere next year, as they aren't going anywhere in any kind of trades.

    I agree that if Bogey & Middy are here, they will have FT jobs, however, I could see Middy being traded.

    We could sign Drew, Naps and Salty, and maybe a lesser OF'er and put Bogey at 3B.

    Sox4ever

     



    Agree to disagree on Middy.  Right handed power like that doesn't come around very often.  From what I've heard, he's pretty much untouchable.  The Sox organization was also extremely impressed with how he handled his demotion and feel that he can be a "face of the franchise type" for a long time.  Iglesias, not so much. Middy started believing the hype a little bit and was quickly reminded by Gomes that you don't prepare for a game by texting your buddies.  He clearly got the "message."  I'm well aware of Cecchini, but I don't think his development will affect Middy at all.  They will find a place for his bat.

     

    I'm not for trading or benching Middy, so I don't see us as disagreeing.

    The same reasons we love Middy is the same reason some other GM loves him too.... maybe more!

    Sox4ever



    I hear ya, Moon.  There's a reason why the Sox were so intrigued with Wily Mo Pena.  Right handed power is a commodity.  There's not a GM or hitting coach in baseball that wouldn't love to have Middlebrooks.  It says a lot when opposing players like to watch him take BP.  

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I don't think anyone here wants change for change sake, but we all are realists about this: no matter what we want some change just naturally occurs and as fans we  naturally speculate about "what if?"

    In the interest of "fair reporting," I'll offer up a conversation I had in a "RS Bar" I just discovered. OFFERED UP MY idea about Pence and the owner and one client both ardent RS fans who also watch Giants, responded "NO! NO! NO!"  Too awkward, lunges at pitches, lunges at balls with his glove and catches with his off hand, only playing well because FA coming up, etc.  I've seen this too--but his numbers show he's been about the 4th most productive guy in the Nl since AS break.

    23 HR and 93 RBI for the season ain't that shabby...

     

    Critter

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    We can do a lot with $35 mil in the FA market and if we can also net 4 top picks I'm all for it. None of these guys are irreplaceable.

     

    Abreu may well be > Napoli

    Bogaerts may well be > Drew

    A Pence hitting in Fenway may well be very close to Ellsbury at a much cheaper cost

    Salty < McCann

     

    Change can be a good thing.

    Remember, if this happens we'd gain 4 picks (assuming we offer 4 QOs and they all walk), but we'd lose two picks by signing Pence & McCann. Net gain of 2.

    I'd like McCann here, but think he may cost almost twice as Salty and only be slightly better. The money saved by signing Salty not McCann might help us realize a bigger and better upgrade at another position.

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    We can do a lot with $35 mil in the FA market and if we can also net 4 top picks I'm all for it. None of these guys are irreplaceable.

     

    Abreu may well be > Napoli

    Bogaerts may well be > Drew

    A Pence hitting in Fenway may well be very close to Ellsbury at a much cheaper cost

    Salty < McCann

     

    Change can be a good thing.

    Remember, if this happens we'd gain 4 picks (assuming we offer 4 QOs and they all walk), but we'd lose two picks by signing Pence & McCann. Net gain of 2.

    I'd like McCann here, but think he may cost almost twice as Salty and only be slightly better. The money saved by signing Salty not McCann might help us realize a bigger and better upgrade at another position.

    Sox4ever



    The McCann idea is valid, but right now, my guess is that the Sox would rather sign Salty twice on Sunday over McCann.  "Stats" are all well and good, but Salty has emerged as a productive player and just as important, a leader of this team.  If for some reason they lose him (highly doubtful), my guess is that they go with Ross and one or two of the kids. 

    Look at it this way, McCann is likely to command more money than Salty. Why would they ever let him go and sign his replacement for more money, based on some offensive "stats."  Not happening...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Agreed Jasko. Salty is the second most valuable position player on this team and the pitchers LOVE him. Keep him!!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Rays are 9.5 behind. Hanging by a thread. I just can't believe that, not only are the Sox in first place, but everyone is double digits behind them in their division. Is this the first time that has happened?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:

    Rays are 9.5 behind. Hanging by a thread. I just can't believe that, not only are the Sox in first place, but everyone is double digits behind them in their division. Is this the first time that has happened?



    In 1903, 1912, and 1946, RS won AL pennant by Double Digit game leads

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    McCann hasn't cost his team any runs this year defensively, while Salty has cost his team 6 runs defensively ( DRS Score ). Big difference.

    Although their offensive numbers look comparable upon quick look, Salty had a BAPIP of around .360 to achieve his while MCCann came in with a BAPIP of around .261. In other words Salty was extremely lucky and McCann was extremely unlucky. McCann had almost zero luck this year when you drill down on his numbers. Possibly the lowest I've ever seen.

    MCcann's ISO was .212 while Salty's was at .188. We think of Salty as having a lot of pop and he does but not as much as McCann.

    There will be a lot of teams bidding for both of these guys in my opinion. Catchers just are not worth huge contracts generally. We will see what happens but I bet McCann gets more moolah. He's worth it.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Rays are 9.5 behind. Hanging by a thread. I just can't believe that, not only are the Sox in first place, but everyone is double digits behind them in their division. Is this the first time that has happened?

     



    In 1903, 1912, and 1946, RS won AL pennant by Double Digit game leads

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks for looking into that Steven. Pretty crazy. :)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    Rays are 9.5 behind. Hanging by a thread. I just can't believe that, not only are the Sox in first place, but everyone is double digits behind them in their division. Is this the first time that has happened?

     

     



    In 1903, 1912, and 1946, RS won AL pennant by Double Digit game leads

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks for looking into that Steven. Pretty crazy. :)

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I didn't need to look up '46; that immortal team went 104-50.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Guess my main concern on losing Ells to FA is losing his speed on the base paths. But on the other hand, JBJ doesn't seem slow by any means. Neither seems Boggy. They might not be burners, but along w/ Pedroia and Victorino the team could still be balanced on this front. Gotta remember, the Red Sox have a history of totally abandoning the running game in past years. Thankfully that philosophy has changed. In short, I love Napoli, but I don't want a team full of Napolis if you get my meaning. 

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    hey EMP, check your PMs

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    We can do a lot with $35 mil in the FA market and if we can also net 4 top picks I'm all for it. None of these guys are irreplaceable.

     

    Abreu may well be > Napoli

    Bogaerts may well be > Drew

    A Pence hitting in Fenway may well be very close to Ellsbury at a much cheaper cost

    Salty < McCann

     

    Change can be a good thing.

    Remember, if this happens we'd gain 4 picks (assuming we offer 4 QOs and they all walk), but we'd lose two picks by signing Pence & McCann. Net gain of 2.

    I'd like McCann here, but think he may cost almost twice as Salty and only be slightly better. The money saved by signing Salty not McCann might help us realize a bigger and better upgrade at another position.

    Sox4ever

     



    The McCann idea is valid, but right now, my guess is that the Sox would rather sign Salty twice on Sunday over McCann.  "Stats" are all well and good, but Salty has emerged as a productive player and just as important, a leader of this team.  If for some reason they lose him (highly doubtful), my guess is that they go with Ross and one or two of the kids. 

     

    Look at it this way, McCann is likely to command more money than Salty. Why would they ever let him go and sign his replacement for more money, based on some offensive "stats."  Not happening...

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think the cost of McCann is worth the possible slight upgrade over Salty.

    I do not think Salty is as bad behind the plate as some here are arguing. He's one of the top picth framers in MLB (something DRS and UZR do not count), and he has come a long way in handling the staff to a point where they are doing much better with him now than in the past. (Yes, I know he is not 100% responsible for the uptick in our staff.)

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    When someone has a BAPIP of 50 higher than their career average, that indicates a probable regression. Salty is hitting .266 now. What if he regresses 50 points as would be very possible going forward?

    All the sudden we are looking at a catcher who is hitting .220 again, and comparable to a lot of players making near mlb minimum. 

    Salty BAPIP vs BA rates

    2008: .385 BAPIP .253 BA

    2009: .320 BAPIP .230 BA

    2010: Minor leagues all year ( case of the Yipps, Texas bails )

    2011: 304 BAPIP .235 BA

    2012: .265 BAPIP .222 BA

    2013: .366 BPAIP .266 BA

    David Ross has played in a lot fewer games than Salty, yet he has contributed a plus 3 DRS. Salty has a -6 DRS. Ross is clearly a much better defender. Not even close. Look at Ross's CS percentage. Same staff as Salty. Better CERA, Better CS percentage. Much better DRS. David Ross cleans Salty's clock defensively. Can't we finally put the whole "Salty is a good defender" thing to rest after many years now of data which contradicts that analysis?

    Salty's CS Percentage 2013: .218

    David Ross's CS percentage: .406

    Ross throws out almost twice as many runners, with the same staff. Can we keep blaming the pitchers? Really?

    Let's look at Ross's CERA this year: .306

    Salty's CERA this year: .386

    Did Salty have an epiphany this year and become a good CERA catcher for once or is it that the staff is just better? 

    By the way, Jesus Montero has a CERA this year of .343. He sure sounds like a great catcher defensively also huh?

    Being a catcher is somewhat like being a CF on a great soccer team, or a goalie on a great team. Sometimes your numbers can look great simply because the team is good. Salty's CERA has a whole lot more to do with the pitching staff than it does to his pitch framing and other capabilities. Maybe he is getting pitch calls simply because he catches an extremely veteran staff.

    There are a few good things about Salty. He hits a lot of doubles in Fenway and in another park he probably would hit more HR. He is probably worth more in Philly and NY than he is in Boston. The bottom line is he will cost more than he is worth to us. I would add that Lavarnway's minor league numbers look a lot better than Salty's ever were. Isn't it possible that he will emerge if he is given more PT, and put up even better numbers than Salty going forward?

    Really think about this. The data is extensive now with Salty. To me, he is clearly over rated this year and if we can get a pick out of him GREAT. Even if his current numbers were for real, he will be more attractive to other teams than he is to us. The Yanks could probably use a catcher right now don't you think. We should move on and take the probable pick. 

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here's an example of why small sample sizes can be deceptive:

    JBJ's OPS before one swing of the bat today: .592.

    JBJ's OPS after one swing of the bat today: .641.

    That's near 50 points on one pitch.

     

    The kid deserves a break from definitive judgements based on a spread out and small ML sample size.

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    When someone has a BAPIP of 50 higher than their career average, that indicates a probable regression. Salty is hitting .266 now. What if he regresses 50 points as would be very possible going forward?

    A regression of 50 points in BAbip does not mean his overall BA will drop 50 points. For example, his BAbip dropped 39 points between 2011 and 2012, but his BA only dropped 13 points.

    All the sudden we are looking at a catcher who is hitting .220 again, and comparable to a lot of players making near mlb minimum. 

    Salty BAPIP vs BA rates

    2008: .385 BAPIP .253 BA

    2009: .320 BAPIP .230 BA

    2010: Minor leagues all year ( case of the Yipps, Texas bails )

    2011: 304 BAPIP .235 BA

    2012: .265 BAPIP .222 BA

    2013: .366 BPAIP .266 BA

    While these numbers are telling, one has to look at other fac tors besides just luck to explain the disparities. If Salty's LD% was the same as 2012 and 2011, and his BAbip rose as sharply as it has, then luck would seem to be the major factor. However, Salty may be hitting less HRs, but he is hitting the ball much harder this year than ever before, so when the ball is put in play, it is much more likely a line drive than years before. Take a look at these numbers:

    LD%

    07  16.7

    08  27.2

    09  23.2

    10    5.3

    11  21.3

    12  22.8

    13  28.5

     

    Also...

    GB/FB

    11  .69

    12  .66

    13  .85

     

    IF Hit%

    11 3.9%

    12 3.7%

    13 3.3%

    (Less cheap IF hits this year by a smidgeon.)

     

    BB%

    11  6.2%

    12  8.5%

    13  9.5%

    (His K rate has stayed about the same the last 3 years: 30.8, 31.0, and 30.1)

    He has about the same ABs as lat year. He has 17 more Line Drives this year and 19 more hits than 2012. Couldn't that be a big part of his increased BAbip?

    David Ross has played in a lot fewer games than Salty, yet he has contributed a plus 3 DRS. Salty has a -6 DRS. Ross is clearly a much better defender. Not even close. Look at Ross's CS percentage. Same staff as Salty. Better CERA, Better CS percentage. Much better DRS. David Ross cleans Salty's clock defensively. Can't we finally put the whole "Salty is a good defender" thing to rest after many years now of data which contradicts that analysis?

    Have you seen the pitch framer numbers?

    Salty's CS Percentage 2013: .218

    David Ross's CS percentage: .406

    Ross throws out almost twice as many runners, with the same staff. Can we keep blaming the pitchers? Really?

    Nobody is saying Salty is as good a thrower as Ross. Nobody. The point is his disparity vs the league average is only about 10-15 SBs over a season. How many runs does that lead to?

    Yes, it is a weakness. A big one, but the CS% is a tiny fraction of what a catcher does behind the plate.

     

    Let's look at Ross's CERA this year: .306

    Salty's CERA this year: .386

    Again, look pitcher by pitcher not overall. Yes, Ross still has a slight edge, but it is not as big as the overall CERA numbers look.

    Did Salty have an epiphany this year and become a good CERA catcher for once or is it that the staff is just better? 

    Look at the same pitchers from 2012 to 2013 with Salty. You are using CERA whne it suits your position, but explaining it away when it doesn't. (You also have claimed Lava is as good as Salty behind the plate, but ignore those CERA and OPS against numbers: 3.79 to 4.71 and .708 to .760)

    I don't condone overall CERA usgae, but since you brought it up:

    Salty 2012: 4.84  (.779 OPS against)

    Salty 2013: 3.79  (.708 OPS against)

    Pitchers OPS (PA-200+) against:

                     2012        2013

    Doub (534) .777    (577) .708

    Lest   (480) .869   (601) .671

    Buch  (345) .935   (228) .533

     

    By the way, Jesus Montero has a CERA this year of .343. He sure sounds like a great catcher defensively also huh?

    1) ERA is 3.43 on .343

    2) CERA is only useful when comparing catchers on the same team with the same pitchers and mostly the same parks and opponents.

    3) So much of CERA is who you catch most often on your team. It is not always so evenly distributed, as witnessed by the Salty-Ross comparisson. Salty is Doubront's near exclusive catcher, while Ross has a much higehr percent of his innings caught with Buchholz. That is why comparing pitcher by pitcher CERA is a better way to look at it (see below).

     

    Here's the pitcher by pitcher look: only pitchers with similar and large enough sample sizes should be compared:  (Over 60 IP)

     

                 With Salty           With Ross            With Lava

    Lester  (143) 3.58 .671   (65) 3.88  .748     0

    Lackey (141) 2.94 .675   (11) 2.38  .715   (31) 5.81  .774

    Demps (102) 4.66 .750   (48) 3.00  .711   (19) 8.38  .985

    Doubr  (135) 3.86 .708     (9) 8.31  .871   (10) 3.60  .817

    Buch     (60) 1.51  .533   (42) 1.73  .529    0

    Ueha    (54)  1.01  .379  (14)  1.32  .432  (4) 2.25  .643

    Taza     (49) 2.57  .713   (14) 3.14  .760   (4) 7.36  .954

    Peavy   (27) 4.00  .678   (20) 2.75  .573  (12) 4.50  .599

     

    Salty leads in CERA with 5 of 8 pitchers.  He also leads in OPS against with 5 of 8, and is .003 behind with the 6th.

    (To be fair, it appears Salty has done much better with pitchers who have been here more than 1 year. Ross deserves a learning curve, but then again, so would McCann or any other catcher we bring in next year.)

     

    Being a catcher is somewhat like being a CF on a great soccer team, or a goalie on a great team. Sometimes your numbers can look great simply because the team is good. Salty's CERA has a whole lot more to do with the pitching staff than it does to his pitch framing and other capabilities.

    Then, explain why the same pitchers are doing much better this year than last, and how they did much better last year after April than they did before 4/25/12. Salty has improved greatly from 2011 to 4/12 to past 4/25/12, then he he improved by an even greater margin from 2012 to 2013. 

    I know the coaches and managers have something to do with that, and our staff has some different pitchers from 2012 and 2011, but clearly Salty has improved in the CERA area anyway you want to look at it.

    Maybe he is getting pitch calls simply because he catches an extremely veteran staff.

    Then why isn't Ross and before him VTek up on the list? They actually caught the better pitchers and more "veteran" over the same time period.

    There are a few good things about Salty. He hits a lot of doubles in Fenway and in another park he probably would hit more HR. He is probably worth more in Philly and NY than he is in Boston. The bottom line is he will cost more than he is worth to us.

    Come on! Fangraphs has his value to us listed as such:

    11  $7.2M

    12  $8.4M

    13  $16.0M

    Total: $29.6M  That is way more than he has been paid, and that is counting the take-aways for his defense, and not counting pitch framing, pitch calling and CERA gains.

    I would add that Lavarnway's minor league numbers look a lot better than Salty's ever were. Isn't it possible that he will emerge if he is given more PT, and put up even better numbers than Salty going forward?

    Why not look at Lava's CERA numbers above?

    Really think about this. The data is extensive now with Salty. To me, he is clearly over rated this year and if we can get a pick out of him GREAT. Even if his current numbers were for real, he will be more attractive to other teams than he is to us. The Yanks could probably use a catcher right now don't you think. We should move on and take the probable pick. 

    I would not be surprised if Salty hits .240 next year, but I doubt his BB% goes down as he ages. As long as his OBP stays above .315 or so, and he continues to be a top 5 SLG% catcher, I'm fine with his offensive game. 

    His CS rate is horrible and probably always will be, but other than that, I think he is near average or better than average in every other area behind the plate, including the intangibles not covered by UZR or DRS.

     




     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here's a list by mlbtradrumors.com of the best 2014 free agents (power rankings):

    1) Cano  31

    2) Ellsbury  30

    3) McCann  30

    4) Garza  30

    5) Choo  33

    6) Kuroda  39

    7) E Santana  31

    8) C Beltran  37

    9) AJ Burnett  37

    10) Utley

    Others:

    Pence 31, Napoli 32, J Johnson 30, N Cruz 33, & Lincecum 30

    C:  Salty 29, Ruiz 35, AJ Pier 37

    1B: K Morales 30, Morneau 30, C Hart 32, M Morse 30, Loney 30, M Reynolds 30

    SS: Drew 31, Peralta 32, B Ryan 32, Furcal 36, Gonzo 36, Izturis 34

    3B: M Young 37, Uribe 34, M Reynolds 30, E Chavez 36

    OF: Granderson 33, Hart, Morse, D Murphy 32, D Young 28, Byrd 36, Francoeur 30, McLouth 32, Sizemore 31, 

    (Crisp has a $7.5M option, DeJesus has a $6.5M club option)

    SP: Bedard 35, Feldman 30, G Floyd 31, C Lewis 34, Maholm 32, P Hughes 28, Marcum 32, Nolasco 31, W Rodriguez 35, Vargas 31, C-M Wang 34, Carpenter 39, Arroyo 37, Francis 33, Colon 41, B Chen 37, T Hudson 38F Garcia 37, D Haren 33, Lily 38,    R Hernandez 33

    RP: Balfour 36, Benoit 36, Downs 38, O'Flaherty 29, Rodney 37, J Crain 32, + others (J Nathan has a $9M clup otpion)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Boom and Moon you can slug it out with stats all night long but I know what my eyes tell me. Salty has had a great year and is beloved by his pitchers. Yes Ross is a better defender, maybe the best, or at least top two or three, defensive catcher in MLB. But his bat has kept him a career backup. I could see Salty signing for 3/40 or 4/50 million dollar deals. I think McCann gets more but I'm not convinced he's worth it, especially factoring in Salty's familiarity with this staff. Boom I know you love Lava, but he's a few years behind Salty in development and this team is poised to contend now and for the next few years and can't afford to have a "project" behind the plate. I liken Salty's career path to that of Varitek; both switch-hitters, both high slugging pct hitters, both good handlers of pitchers, both worse than average throwing, and both hitting their primes in their late twenties. We locked up Tek for his prime and it netted us two WS titles; I strongly advocate doing the same for Salty and him doing the same for us!

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Boom and Moon you can slug it out with stats all night long but I know what my eyes tell me. Salty has had a great year and is beloved by his pitchers. Yes Ross is a better defender, maybe the best, or at least top two or three, defensive catcher in MLB. But his bat has kept him a career backup. I could see Salty signing for 3/40 or 4/50 million dollar deals. I think McCann gets more but I'm not convinced he's worth it, especially factoring in Salty's familiarity with this staff. Boom I know you love Lava, but he's a few years behind Salty in development and this team is poised to contend now and for the next few years and can't afford to have a "project" behind the plate. I liken Salty's career path to that of Varitek; both switch-hitters, both high slugging pct hitters, both good handlers of pitchers, both worse than average throwing, and both hitting their primes in their late twenties. We locked up Tek for his prime and it netted us two WS titles; I strongly advocate doing the same for Salty and him doing the same for us!



    VTek actually reached his prime in his early 30's.

    VTek led the league in Passed Balls at age 27 and 28.

    His OPS was belwo .730 at ages 28 and 30, and was hurt at age 29.

    His first good year was at age 31:

    .273  25  85  (.351/.512/.863)

    Yes, he had an .813 OPS at age 27, but his CERA was almost always worse than our other catcher until his 30's.

     

    There is still room for Salty to continue to improve. He has not caught a lot of innings for a player his age. I feel he is poised to have a very good 3-4 years going forward.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    There you go beating me up with facts again Moon! Tek was catching Wakefield when he led the league in PBs. Maybe I should have referred to years of service rather than age, I forgot that Tek was much older than Salty when he broke in.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    There you go beating me up with facts again Moon! Tek was catching Wakefield when he led the league in PBs. Maybe I should have referred to years of service rather than age, I forgot that Tek was much older than Salty when he broke in.



    Yes, and Salty's early PB numbers were also effected by Wakefield.

    I get the BAbip argument. I have used it myself on several occasions, but it does not tell the whole story. Salty is hitting the ball harder this year than ever before, although not for HRs. This is one reason he is getting more hits when the ball is put in play. It is not just luck. If you take away Salty's 17 more line drives hit this year over last year, he'd be hitting .224 (92 for 410: he was 90 for 405 in 2012 or .222). I'm not saying every one of salty's added line drives went for hits, but certainly some did. It's not all about luck. It might not have anything to do with luck, but my guess is some of his BAbip was due to luck. 

    I think Salty is probably a .240-.250 hitter. He's had a SLG% between .450 and .455 for 3 straight years, so that is probably what we can count on him for. His career OBP is .308, but he has been over .330 almost all season long. My guess is, he may setlle in at .325 to .335 the next 3-4 years. That ends up being about a .780 OPS, which is usually top 6 of 7 in MLB- making him a top 20% offensive catcher.

    Lava may end up better than that over time, but I feel he will need 2-3 years to even hope of being equal to Salty behind the plate- in the whole sense of that job, not just CS%.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share