The Peavy trade has changed the make-up of this team as well as some future choices at a number of positions.
The 2013 Depth chart as it seems to stand now:
SP: (DL Buchholz) Lester, Peavy, Lackey, Doubront, Dempster, Workman
RP: Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Britton, Thornton, Beato, de la Torre, A Wilson
C: Salty, (DL Ross), Lava, Vazquez, Butler
1B: Napoli, Carp, Nava, Papi (at NL parks), Snyder, Sutton
2B: Pedroia, Holt, Diaz
SS: Drew, Holt, Boggy
3B: Holt, Snyder, Middlebrooks, Boggy
LF: Nava, Gomes, Carp, Hazelbaker
CF: Ellsbury, Victorino, Nava, JBJ
RF: Victorino, Nava, Carp, Brentz
DH: Papi, Carp, Nava, Napoli
If Buchholz comes back strong, our pen will gain a strong long relief man, or some of our starters may get a rest here and there. Lackey may need a breather, and maybe Doubront too, but I's hate to mess with Doubie's groove.
Uehara needs a breather as well, but it is hard to give your closer a break.
Salty is on pace to play more innings than ever, but has a history of hitting a wall in the late season. Fluke or something to worry about? I am not convinced lava can carry a heavy load.
Naps, Gomes and Victorino seem to be coming around a bit.
We need good health from here on out.
We may see a waiver-wire deal or two to fill some needs after things shake out with Buch and our 3Bmen.
Here's a look at 2014... (using average contract yearly salary):
$16.5M Lackey (then club option at min. wage*)
$14.5M Peavy (then very likely a FA- perhaps after a QO)
$13.25M Dempster (then FA)
$13M Victorino (then $13M for 2015 and then FA)
$13M Ortiz (then FA)
*$13M Club Option on Lester (with $.25M buyout
$7.5M Buchholz (through 2015 with club options for $13M '16 & $13.5M '17 w .5M buyout)
$6.75M Pedroia (signed through 2014 with 2015 club option @ $11M w $.5M buyout)
$5M Gomes (then FA)
$3.1M Breslow (then FA)
$3.1M Ross (then FA)
Sub Total: ~$96M without Lester (10 players) and $107.5M with Lester (11 players).
Uehara (3 of 3) made $4.25M in 2013 > $6M
Bailey (3 of 3) made $4.1M > $5.5M
Aceves (3 of 3) made 2.65M > $3M
Bard (2 of 3) made $1.86M > 1M (or DFA'd)
Morales (3 of 3) made $1.49M > $2M
Miller (3 of 3) made 1.48M > $2M
Tazawa (1 of 3) made $815K > $1.25M
Carp (1 of 3) made $508K > $1.25M
Sub Total Arb estimate: $23M (8 players)
Doubront (pre- arb, then 3 arbs) made $518K
Nava (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K
Mortensen (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K
Kalish (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $498K
Middlebrooks (pre-arb) made $498K
Pre-arbs that make $490K this year: Bradley, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Wilson, and Wright.
Sub Total Pre-Arb estimate: $8M (16 players)
TOTAL : ~ $139M (35 players with Lester) / 127M (34 players with no Lester)
That's a total of 31-35 players depending on Lester and Bard, but a few other players might be dealt or cut (Butler, Hassan, Wright)
5-10 players (Rule 5 pending) that might be added to 40 man roster this winter or lost: add about $3-4M to the total.
40 man roster total: ~$154M with Lester/ $143M without Lester
The following players will be eligible for the 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:
Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair, Xander Bogaerts, Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Mario Martinez, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Rafael Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Brandon Snyder, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer
So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $3.9M for 2014 (then one more for 2015).
The final number will be about:
$146M without Lester
$157M with Lester
(not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)
I'm assuming we keep Lester, so if our intention is to stay below the luxury tax limit, we should have about $32M to spend on a few holes left by departing players.
My take on our biggest needs with possible in-house solutions in parenthesis (not in any particular order):
1) Big RH'd middle of the order hitter
2) CF (Victorino, JBJ)
3) C (Ross, Lava, Vazquez, Butler)
4) 3B (Middlebrooks, Boggy if we find a SS, Snyder, Holt, Cecchini)
5) SS (Boggy, Holt, Marrero, Lin, Vinicio)
6) RP (too many to name)
7) 1B (Carp, Nava, Snyder, Papi)
It's pretty certain Boggy will be given every chance to play FT. Carp, Nava and Gomes could maybe handle LF/1B between them. Middlebrooks may be counted on. But, I doubt we go with Ross, Lava and kids at catcher.
We will probably sign a catcher (Salty?), a corner IF'er (Napoli/Morales/Morneau/Morse?) that eases the pressure at 3B and 1B, and an OF'er who can play CF (Ellsbury?) 3 signings for $32M is not too bad, but if Ellsbury is one of them, it might not leave much to sign a good quality catcher and corner IF'er.
(Note: Maybe this should be Part I of the 2014 Realistic thread.)