A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I think I read somewhere that if we stay under the luxury tax limit this year we get a huge boost in revenue sharing money. We can sign Abreu and still stay under the luxury tax limit ( I think ) especially if we let some of the Drew / Salty / Ellsbury / Napoli mix go.

    I doubt we resign all of those guys. We are probably replacing our $9 mil SS with a $500,000 SS. We are probably letting Ellsbury go. We don't have a lot of needs. I sense that we will be major players for Abreu. All the stars seem to be aligning. 

    Someone said recently on soxprospects that Abreu is mainly a obp and power guy. I agree on that front. The guy will get 30-40 HBP a year. His OBP could well top .400 according to his past numbers.  Even if he hits .260 he could be a huge addition to this team. A possible 40 HR bat who gets on base at a .400 clip. The guy is a moose. Not quite Frank Howard but in that direction. He should be able to cover the plate well and pull a lot of balls most players would not be able to reach, especially since he crowds the plate so much. He's made for Fenway from what little I've seen of him. I think we go higher than $60 mil to sign him if necessary.

    He's a wrist injury waiting to happen though also. And he may well be a Lavarnway type bat who will get busted inside over and over and not get the numbers most of us expect. Still, I'm willing to pull the trigger on him because the payoff is potentially off the charts.

    We've got to be thinking about moving on this guy and most other top market teams do not need a 1st baseman. Also, he slots right in as a DH as he ages or gets too out of shape. After Ortiz leaves. The stars are aligning on this one. The Yanks and Dodgers probably are not playing on this deal.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I think I read somewhere that if we stay under the luxury tax limit this year we get a huge boost in revenue sharing money. We can sign Abreu and still stay under the luxury tax limit ( I think ) especially if we let some of the Drew / Salty / Ellsbury / Napoli mix go.

    I doubt we resign all of those guys. We are probably replacing our $9 mil SS with a $500,000 SS. We are probably letting Ellsbury go. We don't have a lot of needs. I sense that we will be major players for Abreu. All the stars seem to be aligning. 

    Someone said recently on soxprospects that Abreu is mainly a obp and power guy. I agree on that front. The guy will get 30-40 HBP a year. His OBP could well top .400 according to his past numbers.  Even if he hits .260 he could be a huge addition to this team. A possible 40 HR bat who gets on base at a .400 clip. The guy is a moose. Not quite Frank Howard but in that direction. He should be able to cover the plate well and pull a lot of balls most players would not be able to reach, especially since he crowds the plate so much. He's made for Fenway from what little I've seen of him. I think we go higher than $60 mil to sign him if necessary.

    He's a wrist injury waiting to happen though also. And he may well be a Lavarnway type bat who will get busted inside over and over and not get the numbers most of us expect. Still, I'm willing to pull the trigger on him because the payoff is potentially off the charts.

    We've got to be thinking about moving on this guy and most other top market teams do not need a 1st baseman. Also, he slots right in as a DH as he ages or gets too out of shape. After Ortiz leaves. The stars are aligning on this one. The Yanks and Dodgers probably are not playing on this deal.



    $60M is a lot for a gamble that he's not a Lars or Lava type, but I think all indications are that he will be the real deal.

    Guys like Napoli or K Morales are injury gambles, so in a sense, we are rolling the dice anyway we go at 1B.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If we're not going into a bidding war with other "big market" teams, then go for Abreu...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    If we're not going into a bidding war with other "big market" teams, then go for Abreu...



    I'd love to get Abreu, and I'm not trying to be a downer, but imagine paying $60M for a compete bust.

    Yeah, Napoli and Morales are injury risks, but at least we know about what we should get from them.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Critter23's comment:

     

    If we're not going into a bidding war with other "big market" teams, then go for Abreu...

     



    I'd love to get Abreu, and I'm not trying to be a downer, but imagine paying $60M for a compete bust.

     

    Yeah, Napoli and Morales are injury risks, but at least we know about what we should get from them.



    almost like Dice-K? in all fairness though he gave us 2 GREAT years...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Critter23's comment:

     

     

     

    If we're not going into a bidding war with other "big market" teams, then go for Abreu...

     

     



    I'd love to get Abreu, and I'm not trying to be a downer, but imagine paying $60M for a compete bust.

     

     

    Yeah, Napoli and Morales are injury risks, but at least we know about what we should get from them.

     



    almost like Dice-K? in all fairness though he gave us 2 GREAT years...

     



    Dice-K had the talent and proved it (after the signing). His injuries and forced change of routine caused the let down.  Abreu has yet to prove anything, but by all accounts, he's got the talent.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to Critter23's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    If we're not going into a bidding war with other "big market" teams, then go for Abreu...

     

     

     



    I'd love to get Abreu, and I'm not trying to be a downer, but imagine paying $60M for a compete bust.

     

     

     

    Yeah, Napoli and Morales are injury risks, but at least we know about what we should get from them.

     

     



    almost like Dice-K? in all fairness though he gave us 2 GREAT years...

     

     

     



    Dice-K had the talent and proved it (after the signing). His injuries and forced change of routine caused the let down.  Abreu has yet to prove anything, but by all accounts, he's got the talent.

     



    if we are unable to sign Jacoby i expect we will go after this guy. Naps will be the fallback plan.

    if we do sign jacoby i think they will try to go cheap @ 1B and try to sign Hart who will be much cheaper than Naps.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Dice-K had the talent and proved it (after the signing). His injuries and forced change of routine caused the let down.  Abreu has yet to prove anything, but by all accounts, he's got the talent.

     

     

     



    if we are unable to sign Jacoby i expect we will go after this guy. Naps will be the fallback plan.

     

    if we do sign jacoby i think they will try to go cheap @ 1B and try to sign Hart who will be much cheaper than Naps.

    Again, I think Ellsbury walks, but you are right, if we do sign him, we will skimp elsewhere.... maybe with Salty (C) not Napoli (1B). We also will likely sign a RH'd RP.

    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Dice-K had the talent and proved it (after the signing). His injuries and forced change of routine caused the let down.  Abreu has yet to prove anything, but by all accounts, he's got the talent.

     

     

     



    if we are unable to sign Jacoby i expect we will go after this guy. Naps will be the fallback plan.

     

    if we do sign jacoby i think they will try to go cheap @ 1B and try to sign Hart who will be much cheaper than Naps.

    Again, I think Ellsbury walks, but you are right, if we do sign him, we will skimp elsewhere.... maybe with Salty (C) not Napoli (1B). We also will likely sign a RH'd RP.

    Sox4ever



    in my eyes, there is virtually -0- chance of Salty playing for a team not named the Red Sox. they will either get him to sign a multi-year deal or sign him with a QO. No way he turns it down.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Dice-K had the talent and proved it (after the signing). His injuries and forced change of routine caused the let down.  Abreu has yet to prove anything, but by all accounts, he's got the talent.

     

     

     

     



    if we are unable to sign Jacoby i expect we will go after this guy. Naps will be the fallback plan.

     

    if we do sign jacoby i think they will try to go cheap @ 1B and try to sign Hart who will be much cheaper than Naps.

    Again, I think Ellsbury walks, but you are right, if we do sign him, we will skimp elsewhere.... maybe with Salty (C) not Napoli (1B). We also will likely sign a RH'd RP.

    Sox4ever

     



    in my eyes, there is virtually -0- chance of Salty playing for a team not named the Red Sox. they will either get him to sign a multi-year deal or sign him with a QO. No way he turns it down.

     




    I agree...1b is easier to fill than finding a solid catcher whom your pitchers are very comfortable with.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    Dice-K had the talent and proved it (after the signing). His injuries and forced change of routine caused the let down.  Abreu has yet to prove anything, but by all accounts, he's got the talent.

     

     

     

     

     

     



    if we are unable to sign Jacoby i expect we will go after this guy. Naps will be the fallback plan.

     

    if we do sign jacoby i think they will try to go cheap @ 1B and try to sign Hart who will be much cheaper than Naps.

    Again, I think Ellsbury walks, but you are right, if we do sign him, we will skimp elsewhere.... maybe with Salty (C) not Napoli (1B). We also will likely sign a RH'd RP.

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    in my eyes, there is virtually -0- chance of Salty playing for a team not named the Red Sox. they will either get him to sign a multi-year deal or sign him with a QO. No way he turns it down.

     

     

     

     

     




    I agree...1b is easier to fill than finding a solid catcher whom your pitchers are very comfortable with.

     

     

     



    solid catcher? southie, you are not doing the Salt-man justice!

    now apologize......

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If we trade Dempster and restructure Lackey's remaining contract to $16M/2, we'd knock off about $21M from 2014's luxury tax budget. Couple that with the extimated $35M we'd have to spend after all teha rbs are settles, we could have about $55M to spend on 3 major positions:

    C, CF, and 1B.

    Some could also argue we could use a SS or solid utility IF'er and another veteran RH'd RP, but wtih $55M to spend, we would be able to fill all out needs with very capable players.

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Some final Sox numbers to ponder (230+ PAs):

    .395 Ortiz

    .385 Nava

    .376 Iggy

    .372 Pedey

    .362 Carp

    .360 Napoli

    .355 Ellsbury

    .351 Victorino

    .344 Gomes

    .338 Saltalamacchia

    .333 Drew

    .271 Middlebrooks

    (.298 Ross with 116 PAs)

    (.280 JBJ with 107 PAs)

     

    SLG%

    .564 Ortiz

    .523 Carp

    .482 Napoli

    .466 Salty

    .451 Vict

    .445 Nava

    .443 Drew

    .426 Ells

    .426 Gomes

    .425 Middy

    .415 Pedey

    .409 Iggy

    .382 Ross

    .337 JBJ

     

    OPS

    .959 Ortiz

    .885 Carp

    .842 Naps

    .831 Nava

    .804 Salty

    .801 Vict

    .787 Pedey

    .785 Iggy

    .781 Ells

    .777 Drew

    .771 Gomes

    .696 Middy

    .681 Ross

    .617 JBJ

     

    8 guys over 26 DBLs

    11 players with 43+ RBIs

    123 SBs with only 19 CS (Ells 93%, Vict 88%, & Pedey 77%)

     

    HR%

    5.0 Papi, 4.6 Middy, 4.0 Naps, 3.7 Carp, 3.6 Gomes, 3.5 Ross, 3.0 Salty, 2.8 JBJ, 2.8 Vict (2.7 MLB avg), 2.6 Drew, 2.2 Nava, 1.4 Ells, 1.2 Pedey, 0.4 Iggy

    XBH%: 11.9% Carp, 11.7 Papi, 11.5 Salty, 10.9 Naps, 10 Drew, 9.4 Middy

    K rate: 36% Ross, 32 Naps, 30 Salty, 29 JBJ, 28 Carp, 26 Middy, 25 Drew, 24 Gomes

    LD%: 30% Salty, 28 Carp, 27 Nava, 25 Papi, 24 Ells, 23 Naps, 23 Drew, 22 Vict

    Pitches/PA: 4.6 Naps, 4.1 Middy, 4.1 Nava, 4.1 Drew, 4.1 Pedey, 4.0 Salty (MLB 3.86)

       3.85 Ells/Gomes/Papi, 3.83 Vict (everyone was or almost was above league avg!)

     

    Pitching numbers tomorrow.

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Some pitching numbrs...

    WHIP

    0.565 Uehara (UNREAL!)

    1.025 Buch

    1.123 Breslow

    1.157 Lackey

    1.160 Peavy

    1.200 Tazawa

    1.294 Lester

    1.370 Miller

    1.416 Workman

    1.429 Doubront (barely an improvement over 2012)

    1.453 Dempster

     

    ERA+

    376 Uehara (WOW!

    234 Buch

    226 Breslow

    156 Miller

    130 Tazawa

    116 Lackey

    109 Lester

    101 Peavy

    94 Doubront

    89 Dempster

    83 Workman

     

    OPS Against

    .400 Uehara (Amazing!)

    .546 Buch

    .635 Breslow

    .664 Peavy

    .703 Lester

    .704 Lackey

    (.725 MLB Avg)

    .729 Doubront

    .741 Tazawa

    .774 Dempster

     

    QS%

    81 Buch

    66 Lackey

    61 Lester

    60 peavy

    59 Doubront

    (51 MLB)

    48 Dempster

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Prediction:

    We will be all over Abreu. The guy is a power RH bat who is almost exclusively a 1st base / DH type. And what do we need if Napoli is not signed? A power RH bat who is primarily a 1st baseman.

    1) He is in a Redsox training facility already. That alone indicates that both sides are positioning a Redsox signing as the most likely option.

    2) He's a power hitter who is just now turning 27. For a power hitter, that is a really good thing. He is just coming into what may be his best years.

    3) We have the money.

    4) We were unwilling to sign Napoli to a multiyear deal last year. Why would we want to this year?

    5) If we give Napoli a QO, he may well turn it down and move on for a multi year deal, and we would probably get a pick. We don't lose a pick if we sign Abreu.

    6) Abreu has put up video game numbers in Cuba. Better than any other player. And he has performed very well in international tournaments.

    7) He gets on base at an incredible rate. One year at well over 50%. My God, wouldn't that fit in with this lineup?

    8) It looks like it might be mainly us or the Rangers. I like those odds.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Just one more thing. Go Indians!

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Is it just me, or does it appear to anyone else that we probably would be better off letting Ellsbury go and sign Choo? Again, we would get an even higher OBP rate and better pop, and he is primarily a RF. We can slot Victorino in CF or Bradley. We still have Nava for LF and even Carp can do it as well. We optimize the OBP and adding Choo and Abreu should improve this lineup even more.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Prediction:

    We will be all over Abreu. The guy is a power RH bat who is almost exclusively a 1st base / DH type. And what do we need if Napoli is not signed? A power RH bat who is primarily a 1st baseman.

    1) He is in a Redsox training facility already. That alone indicates that both sides are positioning a Redsox signing as the most likely option.

    2) He's a power hitter who is just now turning 27. For a power hitter, that is a really good thing. He is just coming into what may be his best years.

    3) We have the money.

    4) We were unwilling to sign Napoli to a multiyear deal last year. Why would we want to this year?

    He broke his record for most PAs and RBIs. He looked great on defense at 1B. Maybe his medical will show his hip is stable.

    5) If we give Napoli a QO, he may well turn it down and move on for a multi year deal, and we would probably get a pick. We don't lose a pick if we sign Abreu.

    6) Abreu has put up video game numbers in Cuba. Better than any other player. And he has performed very well in international tournaments.

    7) He gets on base at an incredible rate. One year at well over 50%. My God, wouldn't that fit in with this lineup?

    8) It looks like it might be mainly us or the Rangers. I like those odds.

    I agree. He is worth the risk/gamble.

     




     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Is it just me, or does it appear to anyone else that we probably would be better off letting Ellsbury go and sign Choo? Again, we would get an even higher OBP rate and better pop, and he is primarily a RF. We can slot Victorino in CF or Bradley. We still have Nava for LF and even Carp can do it as well. We optimize the OBP and adding Choo and Abreu should improve this lineup even more.



    Choo might be cheaper too.

    He really stinks vs LHPs. (Huge split disparity)

    I am not sure we will sign him. Ben does not want to lose a pick.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from AZPAT. Show AZPAT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The Peavy trade has changed the make-up of this team as well as some future choices at a number of positions.

    The 2013 Depth chart as it seems to stand now:

    SP: (DL Buchholz) Lester, Peavy, Lackey, Doubront, Dempster, Workman

    RP: Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Britton, Thornton, Beato, de la Torre, A Wilson

    C: Salty, (DL Ross), Lava, Vazquez, Butler 

    1B: Napoli, Carp, Nava, Papi (at NL parks), Snyder, Sutton

    2B: Pedroia, Holt, Diaz

    SS: Drew, Holt, Boggy

    3B: Holt, Snyder, Middlebrooks, Boggy

    LF: Nava, Gomes, Carp, Hazelbaker

    CF: Ellsbury, Victorino, Nava, JBJ

    RF: Victorino, Nava, Carp, Brentz

    DH: Papi, Carp, Nava, Napoli

     

    If Buchholz comes back strong, our pen will gain a strong long relief man, or some of our starters may get a rest here and there. Lackey may need a breather, and maybe Doubront too, but I's hate to mess with Doubie's groove.

    Uehara needs a breather as well, but it is hard to give your closer a break.

    Salty is on pace to play more innings than ever, but has a history of hitting a wall in the late season. Fluke or something to worry about? I am not convinced lava can carry a heavy load.

    Naps, Gomes and Victorino seem to be coming around a bit.

    We need good health from here on out.

    We may see a waiver-wire deal or two to fill some needs after things shake out with Buch and our 3Bmen.

    Here's a look at 2014... (using average contract yearly salary):

    2014

    $16.5M Lackey (then club option at min. wage*)

    $14.5M Peavy (then very likely a FA- perhaps after a QO)

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (then $13M for 2015 and then FA)

    $13M Ortiz (then FA)

    *$13M Club Option on Lester (with $.25M buyout

    $7.5M Buchholz (through 2015 with club options for $13M '16 & $13.5M '17 w .5M buyout)

    $6.75M Pedroia (signed through 2014 with 2015 club option @ $11M w $.5M buyout)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $3.1M Breslow (then FA)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub Total: ~$96M without Lester (10 players) and $107.5M with Lester (11 players).

    Arbitrations:

    Uehara (3 of 3) made $4.25M in 2013 > $6M

    Bailey (3 of 3) made $4.1M > $5.5M

    Aceves (3 of 3) made 2.65M > $3M

    Bard (2 of 3) made $1.86M > 1M (or DFA'd)

    Morales (3 of 3) made $1.49M > $2M

    Miller (3 of 3) made 1.48M > $2M

    Tazawa (1 of 3) made $815K > $1.25M

    Carp (1 of 3) made $508K > $1.25M

    Sub Total Arb estimate: $23M (8 players)

    Doubront (pre- arb, then 3 arbs) made $518K

    Nava (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Mortensen (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Kalish (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $498K

    Middlebrooks (pre-arb) made $498K

    Pre-arbs that make $490K this year: Bradley, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Wilson, and Wright.

    Sub Total Pre-Arb estimate: $8M (16 players)

    TOTAL : ~ $139M (35 players with Lester) / 127M (34 players with no Lester)

    That's a total of 31-35 players depending on Lester and Bard, but a few other players might be dealt or cut (Butler, Hassan, Wright)

    5-10 players (Rule 5 pending) that might be added to 40 man roster this winter or lost: add about $3-4M to the total.

    40 man roster total: ~$154M with Lester/ $143M without Lester

    The following players will be eligible for the 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair, Xander BogaertsBryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Mario Martinez, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Rafael Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Brandon Snyder, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer

     

    So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $3.9M for 2014 (then one more for 2015). 

    The final number will be about:

     

    $146M without Lester

     

    $157M with Lester 

     

     

     (not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)

     

    I'm assuming we keep Lester, so if our intention is to stay below the luxury tax limit, we should have about $32M to spend on a few holes left by departing players.

    My take on our biggest needs with possible in-house solutions in parenthesis (not in any particular order):

     

    1) Big RH'd middle of the order hitter

    2) CF  (Victorino, JBJ)

    3) C    (Ross, Lava, Vazquez, Butler)

    4) 3B  (Middlebrooks, Boggy if we find a SS, Snyder, Holt, Cecchini)

    5) SS (Boggy, Holt, Marrero, Lin, Vinicio)

    6) RP (too many to name)

    7) 1B  (Carp, Nava, Snyder, Papi)

     

    It's pretty certain Boggy will be given every chance to play FT. Carp, Nava and Gomes could maybe handle LF/1B between them. Middlebrooks may be counted on. But, I doubt we go with Ross, Lava and kids at catcher.

    We will probably sign a catcher (Salty?), a corner IF'er (Napoli/Morales/Morneau/Morse?) that eases the pressure at 3B and 1B, and an OF'er who can play CF (Ellsbury?) 3 signings for $32M is not too bad, but if Ellsbury is one of them, it might not leave much to sign a good quality catcher and corner IF'er.

     

    (Note: Maybe this should be Part I of the 2014 Realistic thread.)



    And your point is???????

    Lighten up! This ain'y Calculus or Trig class!

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from AZPAT. Show AZPAT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Some pitching numbrs...

    WHIP

    0.565 Uehara (UNREAL!)

    1.025 Buch

    1.123 Breslow

    1.157 Lackey

    1.160 Peavy

    1.200 Tazawa

    1.294 Lester

    1.370 Miller

    1.416 Workman

    1.429 Doubront (barely an improvement over 2012)

    1.453 Dempster

     

    ERA+

    376 Uehara (WOW!

    234 Buch

    226 Breslow

    156 Miller

    130 Tazawa

    116 Lackey

    109 Lester

    101 Peavy

    94 Doubront

    89 Dempster

    83 Workman

     

    OPS Against

    .400 Uehara (Amazing!)

    .546 Buch

    .635 Breslow

    .664 Peavy

    .703 Lester

    .704 Lackey

    (.725 MLB Avg)

    .729 Doubront

    .741 Tazawa

    .774 Dempster

     

    QS%

    81 Buch

    66 Lackey

    61 Lester

    60 peavy

    59 Doubront

    (51 MLB)

    48 Dempster



    Here are some numbers too:

     

    Hamburg (85% lean)   $2,89/lb

    Rice A Roni (beef flavored)  $1.29/box

    Fresh Green Beans   $1.89/lb

    Twinkies (Yeah, they're BACK!!!)    $2.39/12 count box

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    Dice-K had the talent and proved it (after the signing). His injuries and forced change of routine caused the let down.  Abreu has yet to prove anything, but by all accounts, he's got the talent.

     

     

     

     

     

     



    if we are unable to sign Jacoby i expect we will go after this guy. Naps will be the fallback plan.

     

    if we do sign jacoby i think they will try to go cheap @ 1B and try to sign Hart who will be much cheaper than Naps.

    Again, I think Ellsbury walks, but you are right, if we do sign him, we will skimp elsewhere.... maybe with Salty (C) not Napoli (1B). We also will likely sign a RH'd RP.

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    in my eyes, there is virtually -0- chance of Salty playing for a team not named the Red Sox. they will either get him to sign a multi-year deal or sign him with a QO. No way he turns it down.

     

     

     

     

     




    I agree...1b is easier to fill than finding a solid catcher whom your pitchers are very comfortable with.

     

     

     



    solid catcher? southie, you are not doing the Salt-man justice!

    now apologize......



    Do the Cubs drive up the price on Salty by any chance? 

    As long as theres comparable 1b-men out there. Naps plugged the hole pretty well ( HR's, RBI, ~ BA not so much). 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Is it just me, or does it appear to anyone else that we probably would be better off letting Ellsbury go and sign Choo? Again, we would get an even higher OBP rate and better pop, and he is primarily a RF. We can slot Victorino in CF or Bradley. We still have Nava for LF and even Carp can do it as well. We optimize the OBP and adding Choo and Abreu should improve this lineup even more.

     



    Choo might be cheaper too.

     

    He really stinks vs LHPs. (Huge split disparity)

    I am not sure we will sign him. Ben does not want to lose a pick.



    He is potentially cheaper and he has better pop and higher obp. And we have several guys who can play CF well. As much as I like Ellsbury, I think I'd probably take Choo over him for our needs in 2014. I love that .424 obp. 

    That is what sets us apart. Our team's collective OBP. Someone is just calculating simple permutations and saying..."this is the way to go" and it is working. Factoring all slots 1-9 we have the best lineup in baseball and Choo has an additional 50 points of OBP than Ellsbury.

    And we might get a pick if we let Napoli go, while adding another huge potential OBP resource with Abreu. We would lead the league in HBP by the way with Choo at 24 last year and Abreu and Victorino at around 30 each if I remember correctly. Even Nava gets hit quite often if I remember correctly. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to AZPAT's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Some pitching numbrs...

    WHIP

    0.565 Uehara (UNREAL!)

    1.025 Buch

    1.123 Breslow

    1.157 Lackey

    1.160 Peavy

    1.200 Tazawa

    1.294 Lester

    1.370 Miller

    1.416 Workman

    1.429 Doubront (barely an improvement over 2012)

    1.453 Dempster

     

    ERA+

    376 Uehara (WOW!

    234 Buch

    226 Breslow

    156 Miller

    130 Tazawa

    116 Lackey

    109 Lester

    101 Peavy

    94 Doubront

    89 Dempster

    83 Workman

     

    OPS Against

    .400 Uehara (Amazing!)

    .546 Buch

    .635 Breslow

    .664 Peavy

    .703 Lester

    .704 Lackey

    (.725 MLB Avg)

    .729 Doubront

    .741 Tazawa

    .774 Dempster

     

    QS%

    81 Buch

    66 Lackey

    61 Lester

    60 peavy

    59 Doubront

    (51 MLB)

    48 Dempster

     



    Here are some numbers too:

     

     

    Hamburg (85% lean)   $2,89/lb

    Rice A Roni (beef flavored)  $1.29/box

    Fresh Green Beans   $1.89/lb

    Twinkies (Yeah, they're BACK!!!)    $2.39/12 count box

     



    I'm sure Twinkies got a message board somewhere...

     
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