A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    What a fantastic act to follow!

    The 2013 Sox rocked our world. Congratulations to everyone involved in making it happen.

    Some big decisions loom on the horizon. The big 4 free agents are at the top of the list:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Napoli

    3) Salty

    4) Drew

    Here's a look at the framework we are starting with:

    The 2014  Forty  man Roster and Rule 5 Possibilities (listed by team seniority):

    1) Ortiz

    2) Lester

    3) Pedroia

    4) Buccholz (60 Day DL)

    5) Doubront

    6) Tazawa

    7) Lackey

    8) Kalish (60 Day DL)

    9) Morales

    10) Miller (60 Day DL)

    11) Lavarnway

    12) Middlebrooks

    13) Britton

    14) Bailey (60 Day DL)

    15) Nava

    16) Breslow

    17) Ross

    18) Webster

    19) de la Rosa

    20) Wilson (60 Day DL)

    21) Wright

    22) Butler

    23) Vazquez

    24) Hassan

    25) Gomes

    26) Victorino

    27) Uehara

    28) Dempster

    29) Holt

    30) Carp

    31) Bradley

    32) Snyder

    33) Workman

    34) Thornton (club option)

    35) Villareal

    36) Peavy

    37) Bogaerts

    38) Berry

    39) Castellanos

    Blue= May be traded or DFA'd to make room for those needing rule 5 protection.

     

    Minor League Free Agents to be, unless added to the 40 Man roster in November:

    Alfredo Aceves, Ronald Bermudez, Anthony Carter, Miguel Celestino, Ryan Dent, Jonathan Diaz, Marco Duarte, Vladimir Frias, Charlie Haeger, Mark Hamilton, Justin Henry, Brock Huntzinger, Bobby Lanigan, Will Latimer, Mitch Maier, Matt Maloney, Jack McGeary, Eric Niesen, Gerardo Olivares, Rafael Perez, Manny Rivera, Alberto Rosario, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Matt Spring, Drew Sutton, Tony Thomas

     

    Rule 5 Eligible (must be added to the 40 man roster by Nov 20):

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair,Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, Nate Reed, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Shannon Wilkerson, Madison Younginer

    I'd say de la Cruz and Almanzar may not get drafted Rule 5, but the following probably need to be protected or lost:

    1) Cecchini

    2) Ranaudo

    3) L Diaz

    4) Brentz

     

    If we sign 4 free agents: OF, SS/3B, 1B and RP somethings got to give. 4 free agents plus 4 rule 5 protected roster moves makes about 8 that need to be added to the 40 man roster.

    See the players in blue to determine who must go to make room, unless we pull off a 2 or 3 for 1 deal or two somewhere.

     

    Let's keep it real on this thread.

     

    As much as we hate to say it, the offseason has begun!

     

    Sox4ever

     

     

     Link to Part III of 2013:

    http://boston.com/community/forums/sports/red-sox/on-the-front-burner/a-realistic-view-at-2013-part-iii/100/6760531

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Too soon.   I'm too excited now.

     

    My thoughts will be forthcoming once my bellybutton stops puckering and unpuckering...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Too soon.   I'm too excited now.

     

    My thoughts will be forthcoming once my bellybutton stops puckering and unpuckering...

    [/QUOTE]

    WTFFF!!!

    are you an alien Notin? that WOULD explain a lot Tongue Out

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Lester's stock is sky high right now and I was talking with a Sox fan that suggested picking up his option and trading him for longer term talent might be worth looking at.

    He thought we might get two pitching prospects and a right handed bat in exchange for Lester's walk year.

    What moves in the starting rotation do you see as possible? What side of the dividing line did Dubront end up on in terms of super arb two (??) eligibility?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Lester stays.

    Doubront missed the arb cutoff by a hair.

    For the first time in ages, I am not calling for a rotation upgrade.

    Top priority:

            A Papi protector and eventual replacement.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'd prioritize Elsbury. Sad to say, right now, in the glow, but Napoli might be the odd man out. 

    I'd bring Drew back, but would love a salary adjustment. 

    It's not too early ... pitchers and catchers report in three months. The offseason, it isn't so long when you play through October. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Too soon.   I'm too excited now.

    Take a deep breath!

     

    My thoughts will be forthcoming once my bellybutton stops puckering and unpuckering...

    Looking forward to your ideas and input.

     



     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    What a great team! Can't wait for the Duck boats. Tickets were going for as high as $12000 for this game? Unreal!

    2nd team to win the series after finishing the previous season in last place! Wow!

    It will be extremely interesting what they do next year. The only guy I see them retaining though is potentially Napoli. They need a 1st baseman and he is probably the best one available. Defensively he was solid and with Bogaerts at SS next year that will be even more important. He can hit good pitching, which is vastly underated as a player characteristic. Not saying I'm enamored with him but we probably bring him back if at all reasonable.

    But you know, as crazy as it sounds, I wouldn't mind seeing Ortiz at 1st some next year with another solution potentially available some at DH. He's really not that bad defensively and it we an add a Carlos Beltran or some other player with Napoli's salary and still have Nava, Carp and others available to share 1st is that all that bad an option?

    It's too dangerous in terms of him getting hurt but it sure is tempting. It is at least worthy of consideration. Maybe for about 6 nanoseconds before saying....NAHH! 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Bogaerts absolutely looks for real. He has to be in next year's lineup. It could be at 3rd but I do have faith that Middlebrooks will at least be acceptable at 3rd and he is still dirt cheap.

    The fact that we have some low cost options opens us up for other opportunities. It will be interesting to see what they do.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    YES!  YES!  YES!  I had a blast watching this amazing win with other New Englanders in a bar/restaurant in Campbell, Ca., called "Li'l Lou's Barbeque" and the owner Lance supplied champagne after...how much fun...

    Lance is a close friend of Pedey's--they call or text almost every day.  Pedey told Lance he watched film of the SL pitchers (4) hours last night-- then after the game he said on the tv he'd been thinking about the playoffs for two years.  Does this surprise anybody?

    I feel so lucky and happy right now and a lot of that is having shared this amazing season with all the guys who share here.  Thanks Moon, Boom, et al...

    Wow, decisions do have to be made.  I have been thinking about my general stance and this is it:

    TRY TO BRING EVERYONE BACK--BUT WITHIN REASON.  OFFER A FAIR PRICE, AN ABOVE MARKET PRICE, THE "RS" PRICE, BUT NOT AN EXORBITANT PRICE.  LET NATURAL ATTRITION TAKE PLACE.  For example, I want ELLS  back but set a fair limit on what he's worth to OUR team,  say 5/90--some here may disagree with that--but don't give him CC money.  If he won't accept our price, then lets find a stud young power hitter for RF and find some other ways to duplicate what he does.  Same with Naps and everyone else.  I agree with Moon our pitching is setting up well for next year.  I firmly believe Workman can be this year's Dempster next year.  I think Doobie can take another step and be a 15 win pitcher.  The only guy I don't want to trade is Wright--I know some here think my fixation on him is unwarranted--but if we can develop another effective K Baller-can you imagine how effective that would be against a team like we just played who don't see them?

    Go Sox 2014!

     

     
  11. This post has been removed.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to mossad-did-911's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    1B/OF Corey Hart 

    1B Justin Morneau

    RP Javier Lopez

    let Bradley Jr replace Ellsbury

    [/QUOTE]


    After 2 big knee surgeries, Hart will probably be strictly a 1b in Boston. Hes not running around that big RF with 2 shaky knees.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What a great team! Can't wait for the Duck boats. Tickets were going for as high as $12000 for this game? Unreal!

    2nd team to win the series after finishing the previous season in last place! Wow!

    It will be extremely interesting what they do next year. The only guy I see them retaining though is potentially Napoli. They need a 1st baseman and he is probably the best one available. Defensively he was solid and with Bogaerts at SS next year that will be even more important. He can hit good pitching, which is vastly underated as a player characteristic. Not saying I'm enamored with him but we probably bring him back if at all reasonable.

    But you know, as crazy as it sounds, I wouldn't mind seeing Ortiz at 1st some next year with another solution potentially available some at DH. He's really not that bad defensively and it we an add a Carlos Beltran or some other player with Napoli's salary and still have Nava, Carp and others available to share 1st is that all that bad an option?

    It's too dangerous in terms of him getting hurt but it sure is tempting. It is at least worthy of consideration. Maybe for about 6 nanoseconds before saying....NAHH! 

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think we can risk an inury to Papi playing 1B.

    I still think Bogery at 3B and Middy at 1B might be our future.

    We need a #4/5 hitter to protect Papi, but does not play 1B.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from stan17. Show stan17's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    It'll be a very interesting off-season coming up. Curious to see if Dempster gets dealt who gets qualified, if long term deals get done w/ Els & Lester. The great thing about this off-season is we get to enjoy this championship run and the Sox seem to have lots of options going forward.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Money should be no problems, the F.O. will be bringing in some extra bucks this year with a world series win and it should also help sell some FA to come over.

    I'm not making the case to blow past the luxury tax, rather I'd like to see the team spend as much as they can and stay under it.

    I would go after McCann or possibly even Ruiz.  I like Salty, and perhaps he can even continue to progress next year as well...but if your play is losing you a starting role in the world series then something is wrong.

    I'm torn on Lester, it makes sense to trade him but it also makes sense to hold onto him as well.  He will likely get a big payday for everything he's done in his 20's and the Post season for 5-6 + years into his 30's.....and we all know what the track record there is. 

    Worst case scenario is Jon Walks after 2014 and we get a first round draft pick, and we should have some arms ready by then (if not sooner) e.g. Allen Webster, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes.

    nice write up today on Allen Webster too, I think some people may have forgotten about him due to a subpar performance this year in Boston.  But the kid has good stuff and is close.  I suspect he's the first call up next season and may be better prepared to make an argument for a permanent role in Boston.

    http://news.soxprospects.com/2013/10/top-40-season-in-review-allen-webster.html

     
  16. This post has been removed.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jam789123. Show jam789123's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    A qualifying offer to Drew, Napoli and Ellsbury will equal three draft picks.

    Sign Salty to 4 yr./36 mill. contract.

    Trade for Mark Trumbo.

    Resign Koji for at least 2015.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What a great team! Can't wait for the Duck boats. Tickets were going for as high as $12000 for this game? Unreal!

    2nd team to win the series after finishing the previous season in last place! Wow!

    It will be extremely interesting what they do next year. The only guy I see them retaining though is potentially Napoli. They need a 1st baseman and he is probably the best one available. Defensively he was solid and with Bogaerts at SS next year that will be even more important. He can hit good pitching, which is vastly underated as a player characteristic. Not saying I'm enamored with him but we probably bring him back if at all reasonable.

    But you know, as crazy as it sounds, I wouldn't mind seeing Ortiz at 1st some next year with another solution potentially available some at DH. He's really not that bad defensively and it we an add a Carlos Beltran or some other player with Napoli's salary and still have Nava, Carp and others available to share 1st is that all that bad an option?

    It's too dangerous in terms of him getting hurt but it sure is tempting. It is at least worthy of consideration. Maybe for about 6 nanoseconds before saying....NAHH! 

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think we can risk an inury to Papi playing 1B.

    I still think Bogery at 3B and Middy at 1B might be our future.

    We need a #4/5 hitter to protect Papi, but does not play 1B.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think Xander could be that guy. Eventually I see him as a 3 hitter. But could easily be a 4 or 5. After seeing how natural and calm he was this year, Id have no issue penciling him in at one of those spots.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Money should be no problems, the F.O. will be bringing in some extra bucks this year with a world series win and it should also help sell some FA to come over.

    I'm not making the case to blow past the luxury tax, rather I'd like to see the team spend as much as they can and stay under it.

    I would go after McCann or possibly even Ruiz.  I like Salty, and perhaps he can even continue to progress next year as well...but if your play is losing you a starting role in the world series then something is wrong.

    I'm torn on Lester, it makes sense to trade him but it also makes sense to hold onto him as well.  He will likely get a big payday for everything he's done in his 20's and the Post season for 5-6 + years into his 30's.....and we all know what the track record there is. 

    Worst case scenario is Jon Walks after 2014 and we get a first round draft pick, and we should have some arms ready by then (if not sooner) e.g. Allen Webster, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes.

    nice write up today on Allen Webster too, I think some people may have forgotten about him due to a subpar performance this year in Boston.  But the kid has good stuff and is close.  I suspect he's the first call up next season and may be better prepared to make an argument for a permanent role in Boston.

    http://news.soxprospects.com/2013/10/top-40-season-in-review-allen-webster.html

     




    Nothing wrong. Salty looked worn down. Remember that he was used a ton this year when Ross went down. He really just looked tired. You could see it in his swing and maybe not being as sharp defensively. He was a BIG reason the Sox got to the PS in the first place.

     

    No, it makes no sense to trade Lester. None whatsoever. Hes your horse you ride for the next 4-5 years.

    Webster has great stuff. IF he can learn to command all those pitches, he can be a TOTR starter.

    Lots of decisions to make this winter.

    Imagine 2015 rotation between...

    Lester

    Lackey

    Workman

    Buchholz

    Owens

    Doubront

    with Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, and Britton all possibilities

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Huge decisions to make VERY SOON!  I can't believe that QO's need to be out by Monday!  AS for my hopes....I'd love to have the whole team back to be honest...other than Dempster.  I think the Sox brass REALLY likes Napps because of the large contract he was offered origianlly.  I wouldn't be shocked if they offer him 2 years at $26mil. 

    Drew should be offered a QO and if that's the case I think we can get him for pretty good cash since a lot of other teams won't want to give up a draft pick. 

    Ells....I really think he was the pace setter for this team all year....but he's going to be priced out.  I'm not convinced JBJ is the guy.  I'd like to see a package of WMB, JBJ and one of our young arms (other than Owens) to get a stud outfielder.  Vic can move to center.

    I think the staff is solid and WE NEED to hold on to Lester.  Re-sign him soon.  Prospects are simply that....prospects.  We KNOW what we have in Lester and he has a bunch of solid years coming up.  A rotation of Lester, Buch, Lackey, Peavy and Doubie is VERY solid. 

    I'd also REALLY like a closer.  Koji is the man...but let's not forget that he's no youngster anymore.  He's a perfect setup guy next year and can close when needed.  I'd really like to see the Sox grooming somebody within.  Maybe RDLR??

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Money should be no problems, the F.O. will be bringing in some extra bucks this year with a world series win and it should also help sell some FA to come over.

    I'm not making the case to blow past the luxury tax, rather I'd like to see the team spend as much as they can and stay under it.

    I would go after McCann or possibly even Ruiz.  I like Salty, and perhaps he can even continue to progress next year as well...but if your play is losing you a starting role in the world series then something is wrong.

    I'm torn on Lester, it makes sense to trade him but it also makes sense to hold onto him as well.  He will likely get a big payday for everything he's done in his 20's and the Post season for 5-6 + years into his 30's.....and we all know what the track record there is. 

    Worst case scenario is Jon Walks after 2014 and we get a first round draft pick, and we should have some arms ready by then (if not sooner) e.g. Allen Webster, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes.

    nice write up today on Allen Webster too, I think some people may have forgotten about him due to a subpar performance this year in Boston.  But the kid has good stuff and is close.  I suspect he's the first call up next season and may be better prepared to make an argument for a permanent role in Boston.

    http://news.soxprospects.com/2013/10/top-40-season-in-review-allen-webster.html

     




    Nothing wrong. Salty looked worn down. Remember that he was used a ton this year when Ross went down. He really just looked tired. You could see it in his swing and maybe not being as sharp defensively. He was a BIG reason the Sox got to the PS in the first place.

     

    No, it makes no sense to trade Lester. None whatsoever. Hes your horse you ride for the next 4-5 years.

    Webster has great stuff. IF he can learn to command all those pitches, he can be a TOTR starter.

    Lots of decisions to make this winter.

    Imagine 2015 rotation between...

    Lester

    Lackey

    Workman

    Buchholz

    Owens

    Doubront

    with Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, and Britton all possibilities

    [/QUOTE]


    This is a fair point, I had not really thought about that.  Might make sense to at least give him a Q.O. and hope that a Vasquez/Lavarnway platoon might be able to take over in 2015 if he accepts.  Or we could use the Q.O. to strike a deal with him in the 3/YR range and hope that Swihart becomes a gem in several years. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    1) I'd offer Ellsbury $75M/5. He will walk. We get a draft pick.

    (I'd make a play for Choo next , but would not pay what I think he will get.)

    Maybe we end up with DeJesus or Beltran as bridges to the kids.

     

    2) Next, I offer Napoli a $26M/2 year deal with PA incentives that can bring him to $30M/2. #rd year team option of $13M with $2M in PA incentives and a $2.5M buyout. Essentially, his deal is $28.5M/2 (meets QO criteria) or $39M/3 with incentives.

     

    3) If Napoli accepts his offer, I do not offer Drew a QO contract, unless I am very sure he will decline it. If Napoli declines the offer, I'd offer Drew something similar to Napoli's deal. I'd try and find a great inexpensive defensive SS as out utility IF'er.

     

    4) I'd offer Salty $33M/3 with a club option 4th year at $10M with a $1M buyout. Essentially, it's a $34M/3 deal. If he says no, I'd offer him the minimum 1 year QO and see what happens.

     

    5) If Salty declines, I'd look for a 1 year bridge to Vazquez, Lava, Swihart, Denny. I would not go after McCann.

     

    6) I'd try hard to get RP Mujica.

     

    I'd like to see this team for 2014:

    C: Salty/Ross

    1B: Napoli/Carp (Middy/Papi/Nava)

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Middy (Bogey)

    SS: Bogey/ B Ryan

    LF: Nava/Gomes (Carp)

    CF: Victorino/JBJ

    RF: Beltran (Victorino/Nava)

    SP: Lester, Buch, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Dempster (Morales) 

    RP: Uehara, Breslow, Mujica, Tazawa, Miller, Workman (Bailey)

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think Ben will spent an awful alot of times making trades to move people around so these farm system can move up at one level.  So I think Kalish (too many injuries), Middlebrook (if Drew resigns), Lavarnway (if Salty resigns or find another catcher), Miller, Bailey, Bradley (only if Ellsbury resigns), Dempster (salary relief), etc are all a possible trade bait. 

    To repeat next year, Ben C. need to sign up to three F/A's out of four F/'s including picking up Lester's option.  I think that Salty is the odd man out.  Cuz Salty is going to get a good contract, and he is not worth to resign compare to Drew cuz Drew is a worthy player to resign.

    If Ben get Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew back, the line up will be still be strong.

    Bench will be the same, Carp, Middlebrook, Gomes or Nava and whoever is the catcher.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Right now, I'm for bringing em all back and do it again. Hang the price!

    -Daf.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I doubt they pay Salty big money, if they handed the job to Ross when it counted.

    I think Ellsbury and Drew will get bigger offers elsewhere.

     

     
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