A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Want to respond to some ideas here tonight.

    Lester drove me crazy this summer but this guy in the post season was someone else.  How could we trade him?

    I know Doobie would look good in a trade, low money, etc. but I swear to all here he's on the cusp  of being another Lester.  Other teams drool over guys like this.  Look how natural and smooth and crisp he looked in WS innings...

    I'm all for throwing Dempster, Thornton, or Peavey into a trade.  How about Buch?  He is scaring me.  Loaded with talent but always with a mysterious injury.  Doctors/RS said he should/could have pitched through the summer when he said he was hurt.  Cleared to play, pitched fairly well, then said he couldn't take his WS start, then pitched (4) and players said "He did his best."  Does anyone here know what this is all about?  My point is if your number two pitcher is talented but can't pitch half the time, is he really a #2 pitcher?

    Sometimes Moon says stuff that's so amazing you wonder why no one else had thought of it.  Why  are our HR studs both 1st basemen--it does hurt us vs.NL.  So--I'm not for any trades for a slugging 1st baseman...

    Notin, I love it when guys start thinking about trades that make sense for both teams.  Some great thoughts there.

    Hey, JBJ is just a kid and like somebody said above he didn't get lots of extended play time.  Throw him in next year and by playoff time he'll be doing things of a different set than ELLS that will help us win--if that's the way we go.  I don' think ELLS will be back even if we want him back. He was the juice at the top that made us run in season, but what great thing did he do in the WS for example?  Not much hitting against great pitching, not much bunting when he wasn't hitting, not any stealing against a great catcher, good defense but he did botch up one play, right?  That escape from the rundown was a hilarious moment for me.  I am not knocking him,  but we can survive without him.

    We evidently have lots of third base talent coming.  I 'm not sure if anyone is sure what we have in Middy.  I lean with those who would put him in a trade.

    I want to keep developing Wright.  The future potential of the multiple ways a KB pitcher could help is worth the wait.

    I'm ok with trading Carp or Nava but not both.  I love the idea of Youk coming back BUT he would have to be in top health, you know that line about "you can't really ever return home" and is this really realistic?  I 'm thinking no...I think we should get a stud HR guy for 3rd, play Bogey at SS.

    Don't put Workman in any trade, no, no, no...

     

     

     

     



    Nice post, crit.

    I think the option on Thornton is passed on.

    Bailey is traded or nontendered.

    Dempster is traded to make room for Doubront and some youth as well a clearing luxury limit space.

    Other than that, who knows what players will accept our offers. Should be an interesting winter. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

     

    Ellsbury will very likely move on to greener (literally) pastures.  Saltalamacchia might as well, as he is the free agent predicted to get the most unreasonable contract, and his agent might be benchmarking Miguel Montero’s deal (5 yrs / $60mill).  Personally, he is the most expendable.  His defense, while improved, still is not that good.  His hitting was carried by a BABIP of .372, which in the wake of a .330 xBABIP means regression is more than likely. If Satly did not get a QO, I would not be disappointed.  Just fishing for a draft pick.

    I mentioned this before, and I'm not sure you responded to it: Salty's LD% rose considerably from 2012 to 2013. I think it came to about 21 or 22 more linedrives in 2013. He also walked more. How much of that factored into his big OBP rise as compared to the luck implied by the BAbip regression argument?

     

     







    Saltalamacchia's increased line drive rate was a factor in his xBABIP (Expected Batting Average on Balls in Play).  Even though he hit the ball better this year, he still overperformed. 

     

    Regression is more than likely for Saltalamacchia next season...



    Agreed, but how much of his OBP rise was a result of hitting the ball harder and walking more?

    How much of a regression should we expect?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Just listened to Keith Oberman's show as they had a segment on next year's RS.  I Know some of you don't put much stock in sports guys but I'M passing on some things said about Sox for you to ignore or comment on.  

      Sox are not favored to win next year's WS: Dodgers, Cards, Tigers, Washington more highly favored than RS.  Oberman thought this was ridiculous.  Especially the Tigers bit.

      Thought Sox should make ELLS a priority--he makes team "go" at the top of the order.

      Voiced concern about Buch ( much like I did above ...) by saying 89 mph fastball is a concern, rumors are suggesting bigger issues, does he need surgery, are they going to need another pitcher

      Had Pete Rose on earlier and they said series was sloppy with poor fundamentals, specifically saying runners not moved along, no bunting, and cited the fiasco of guys chasing ELLS in that rundown as poor defense and also the kid getting picked off first.  Rose said cards had been much better all year, the pitching was great for both, but not so great that they looked that bad.  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder--I thought it was all beautiful and entertaining...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Won't we know in about a week who wiil get offers?

    Last March my new buddy Lance put $500 down on RS to win WS in 2013 at 14 to 1.  He's got to go to Vegas to get his $7000 bucks.  As we all know, the RS weren't big favorites to win much back then.

     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. This post has been removed.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to mossad-did-911's comment:

    if Ellsbury leaves, does Bogaerts take over the leadoff spot, or JBJ?



    That's a good question. Not sure either player has the make-up to be lead-off. Off the top of my head I was thinking Victorino is the closest match. He can go yard which could keep defenses honest, he obviously has proved he'd do anything to get on base, and he's a veteran that should know how to bunt and when. He's not a burner, but he's not slow by any means. 

    I think JBJr & WMB need to start being consistent both offensively and defensively. WMB has never been the same sinse his wrist injury & JBJr still can't lay off that inside ball (i know, SSS). Boegarts seems like the real deal holyfield but we've seen that before ( I do think he'll be fine though. It's just the current trend of our rookies dropping off the face of the earth after showing so much promise, does have me a tad concerned ). Bogey looks like heart of the order material to me. 

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to mossad-did-911's comment:

    if Ellsbury leaves, does Bogaerts take over the leadoff spot, or JBJ?



    Maybe Choo.

    Maybe Nava, Victorino or Pedey.

    I seriously doubt it's JBJ.

    Bogey has some power, so I think he may bat 6th and move up as the season goes on.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to mossad-did-911's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to mossad-did-911's comment:

    1B/OF Corey Hart 

    1B Justin Morneau

    RP Javier Lopez

    let Bradley Jr replace Ellsbury




    After 2 big knee surgeries, Hart will probably be strictly a 1b in Boston. Hes not running around that big RF with 2 shaky knees.



    true



    He could play LF, if we move Nava to 1B or trade him.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to mossad-did-911's comment:

    if Ellsbury leaves, does Bogaerts take over the leadoff spot, or JBJ?



    Why not Nava?

     

     

    Better yet, Pedroia.  Every slot you move a hitter up or down in the lineup adds or subtracts about 18 PA over 162 games.  Is giving Pedroia 36 more PA a bad idea in any way?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to mossad-did-911's comment:

     

    if Ellsbury leaves, does Bogaerts take over the leadoff spot, or JBJ?

     



    Why not Nava?

     

     

     

    Better yet, Pedroia.  Every slot you move a hitter up or down in the lineup adds or subtracts about 18 PA over 162 games.  Is giving Pedroia 36 more PA a bad idea in any way?



    No, but finding a replacement for Pedey's slot will be tough.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Won't we know in about a week who wiil get offers?

    Last March my new buddy Lance put $500 down on RS to win WS in 2013 at 14 to 1.  He's got to go to Vegas to get his $7000 bucks.  As we all know, the RS weren't big favorites to win much back then.



    I would have thought that last March the Vegas odds would have been more like 50 to 1. There are 30 teams approximately and a lot of them were favored more than Boston. Even if you thought the team was good, as some of us did, the odds of winning the world series were remote. 

    But heh, maybe he had the inside line!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'm not biased towards or against Jews but mossad-did-911 is just flat out ridiculous. Can't set by and watch junk like that go by without comment. WTFU.

    It's pretty clear who did 911.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Victorino is a potential lead off guy and I haven't written off re signing Ells yet. But I do think Choo is a better fit for this team.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Won't we know in about a week who wiil get offers?

    Last March my new buddy Lance put $500 down on RS to win WS in 2013 at 14 to 1.  He's got to go to Vegas to get his $7000 bucks.  As we all know, the RS weren't big favorites to win much back then.



    I would have thought that last March the Vegas odds would have been more like 50 to 1. There are 30 teams approximately and a lot of them were favored more than Boston. Even if you thought the team was good, as some of us did, the odds of winning the world series were remote. 

    But heh, maybe he had the inside line!



    I called the Sox a 30:1 odd team last spring.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I doubt we sign Choo and lose a pick, but I do love his super high OBP.

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If we re sign Ellsbury we effectively lose a pick.

    To me we are officially in "win now" mode. We need to look at getting back to the world series next year as well. As much as I crave those picks ( you know I do Moon and Crit, Amp et all ), I am willing to even trade at least some prospects to get back to the world series again.

    Especially those not named Cechinni, Swihart and Owens.

    And if we potentially gain 3 picks by seeing Ellsbury, Drew and Napoli walk I'm ok with using one for a player like Choo. I think McCann is probably a Yankee but I'd consider him also. He can slot over to DH in a few years and be an improvement at catcher for the next 2 years.

    McCann and Choo plus Bogaerts and eventually Cechinni really extends the lineup a lot going forward as early as next year in the playoffs. I think that is actually an improvement over 2013.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If we re sign Ellsbury we effectively lose a pick.

    True. It would be the same as letting Ells walk and signing Choo (+1 and -1), but if Ells walks (+1) and we sign an OF'er without a QO, we gain a pick. The Sox may seek this route.

     

    To me we are officially in "win now" mode. We need to look at getting back to the world series next year as well. As much as I crave those picks ( you know I do Moon and Crit, Amp et all ), I am willing to even trade at least some prospects to get back to the world series again.

    I agree. I'd even do a blockbuster for the right young player that is a near lock star under team control for many years.

     

    Especially those not named Cechinni, Swihart and Owens.

    Bogaerts & Owens are the two guys I try hard to keep.

     

    And if we potentially gain 3 picks by seeing Ellsbury, Drew and Napoli walk I'm ok with using one for a player like Choo.

    Agreed.

    I think McCann is probably a Yankee but I'd consider him also. He can slot over to DH in a few years and be an improvement at catcher for the next 2 years.

    He's not good enough hitter to pay that money to DH.

     

    McCann and Choo plus Bogaerts and eventually Cechinni really extends the lineup a lot going forward as early as next year in the playoffs. I think that is actually an improvement over 2013.

    I'd rather keep Napoli than get McCann. Then get a bridge catcher like Suzuki, Ruiz or AJ P.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    These days, when the RS make a shopping list, character is as important - or maybe even moreso - than talent. To wit; Victorino, Gomes, Ross, Napoli, Carp, Uehara.(OK so Dempster seems to be one of the disappointments). Homegrown guys that fit in this category beautifully are Pedroia, Lester and Nava. This should be a hint upon speculating who they pick up.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Guys, I have absolutely no proof of this but I stopped at my new friend's after work today.  He was on his cell saying we'd offered Drew, Naps, and Ells 14 mil for one year--each of them.  I said Ells will never take that so it's like we don't want to pursue him.  He said the Yanks will go for him but he believes he'll go home to Seattle.  I've been on the Internet looking for confirmation but can't find anything about these offers.  I actually think the offers to the others are reasonable for one year--if this is true.  Anyone heard anything like this?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What a fantastic act to follow!

    The 2013 Sox rocked our world. Congratulations to everyone involved in making it happen.

    Some big decisions loom on the horizon. The big 4 free agents are at the top of the list:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Napoli

    3) Salty

    4) Drew

    Here's a look at the framework we are starting with:

    The 2014  Forty  man Roster and Rule 5 Possibilities (listed by team seniority):

    1) Ortiz

    2) Lester

    3) Pedroia

    4) Buccholz (60 Day DL)

    5) Doubront

    6) Tazawa

    7) Lackey

    8) Kalish (60 Day DL)

    9) Morales

    10) Miller (60 Day DL)

    11) Lavarnway

    12) Middlebrooks

    13) Britton

    14) Bailey (60 Day DL)

    15) Nava

    16) Breslow

    17) Ross

    18) Webster

    19) de la Rosa

    20) Wilson (60 Day DL)

    21) Wright

    22) Butler

    23) Vazquez

    24) Hassan

    25) Gomes

    26) Victorino

    27) Uehara

    28) Dempster

    29) Holt

    30) Carp

    31) Bradley

    32) Snyder

    33) Workman

    34) Thornton (club option)

    35) Villareal

    36) Peavy

    37) Bogaerts

    38) Berry

    39) Castellanos

    Blue= May be traded or DFA'd to make room for those needing rule 5 protection.

     

    Minor League Free Agents to be, unless added to the 40 Man roster in November:

    Alfredo Aceves, Ronald Bermudez, Anthony Carter, Miguel Celestino, Ryan Dent, Jonathan Diaz, Marco Duarte, Vladimir Frias, Charlie Haeger, Mark Hamilton, Justin Henry, Brock Huntzinger, Bobby Lanigan, Will Latimer, Mitch Maier, Matt Maloney, Jack McGeary, Eric Niesen, Gerardo Olivares, Rafael Perez, Manny Rivera, Alberto Rosario, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Matt Spring, Drew Sutton, Tony Thomas

     

    Rule 5 Eligible (must be added to the 40 man roster by Nov 20):

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair,Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, Nate Reed, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Shannon Wilkerson, Madison Younginer

    I'd say de la Cruz and Almanzar may not get drafted Rule 5, but the following probably need to be protected or lost:

    1) Cecchini

    2) Ranaudo

    3) L Diaz

    4) Brentz

     

    If we sign 4 free agents: OF, SS/3B, 1B and RP somethings got to give. 4 free agents plus 4 rule 5 protected roster moves makes about 8 that need to be added to the 40 man roster.

    See the players in blue to determine who must go to make room, unless we pull off a 2 or 3 for 1 deal or two somewhere.

     

    Let's keep it real on this thread.

     

    As much as we hate to say it, the offseason has begun!

     

    Sox4ever

     

     

     Link to Part III of 2013:

    http://boston.com/community/forums/sports/red-sox/on-the-front-burner/a-realistic-view-at-2013-part-iii/100/6760531



    thanks moon...good stuff....

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Guys, I have absolutely no proof of this but I stopped at my new friend's after work today.  He was on his cell saying we'd offered Drew, Naps, and Ells 14 mil for one year--each of them.  I said Ells will never take that so it's like we don't want to pursue him.  He said the Yanks will go for him but he believes he'll go home to Seattle.  I've been on the Internet looking for confirmation but can't find anything about these offers.  I actually think the offers to the others are reasonable for one year--if this is true.  Anyone heard anything like this?



    mlbtraderumors has said we offered the three a QO. We may still offer longer deals later.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Updated with the Lester option included and the Thornton option declined...

    2014 Red Sox Player Payroll Budget (Luxury Tax Dollars)

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $1M Thornton (buyout)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub TOTAL: ~ $121M 

     

    Estimated Arbitration (2013 salary):

    $4.1M  Bailey 3 of 3 ($4.1M)  * Could be nontendered

    $2.1M  Morales 3 of 3 ($1.49M)

    $2.1M  Miller 3 of 3 ($1.48M)

    $1.4M  Tazawa 1 of 3 ($0.82M)

    $1.3M  Carp 1 of 3 ($0.51M)

    Estimated Arb Total: ~ $11M

     

    Estimated Pre-Arb Total: ~ $12M

    Doubront, Nava, Villarreal, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Kalish, Bradley, Beato, Berry, Bogaerts, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:  $145M 

    Plus ~ $10M to the player pension fund

     

    Total Luxury Tax Budget Before FA Signings:  ~$155M

     

    This leaves us about $35M to spend and still be under the limit. We will need to replace or re-sign some of our free agents to be:

     

    2014 FAs (with 2013 salary included)

    $13M Napoli (including $5M in bonuses)

    $9.5M Drew

    $9M Ellsbury

    $7.04M Hanrahan

    $4.5M Saltalamacchia 

    $1.5M McDonald

     

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Let's assume we try and stay under the luxury tax limit of about $189M.

    Let's assume we will be at about $144M not counting FAs or re-signings.

    Let's assume we have about $35M to spend to fill these slots (in house solutions):

    C           (Ross/Lava/Butler/Vazquez?)

    CF         (JBJ/Victorino)

    1B        (Middy/Carp/Nava/Papi)

    3B/SS  (Bogey/Middy/Holt/ Cecchini?)

    RP         (Many options)

     

    Some ways to make more salary space:

    1) Trade Dempster (Save $6-13.25M depending on how much we pitch in, if any)

    2) Non tender or sign and trade Bailey (Save $3-4M est arb settlement)

    3) Restructure Lackey's deal to $8.75M x 2 (Save about $8M in 2014)

    This could bring us to about $60M to spend if we do all 3 and max out my numbers.

     

    A ruff estimate at what bringing back our big 4 free agents might cost per year:

    $16-20M/yr Ellsbury

    $13-16M/yr Napoli

    $11-15M/yr Drew

    $8.5-12M/yr Salty

     

    Total: $50M to $65M

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    fangraphs has our player's 2013 value listed at ...

     

    $28.9M  Ells

    $28.0M  Vict (huge boost from his RF defense)

    $27.1M Pedey

    $19.5M Naps

    $19.0M Papi

    $17.8M Salty

    $16.9M Drew

    $9.2M  Nava (major hit from his "poor" defense)

    $6.2M Carp

    $5.0M Iggy

    $5.0M Gomes

    $1.7M Middy

     

    Just the hitting aspect of "value":

    35.3 Papi

    19.3 Naps

    17.2 Nava

    12.5 Pedey

    11.8 Vict

    10.8 Carp

    9.1 Ells

    8.9 Salty

    5.1 Drew

    4.3 Iggy

    3.8 Gomes

    -7.3 Middy

     

    Pitching

    $21.4M Lester

    16.5 Uehara

    15.9 Buch

    15.9 Lackey

    14.2 Doub

    6.5 Peavy

    6.3 Demp

    5.6 Taz

    3.5 Workman

    3.5 Breslow

    2.1 Miller

    1.9 Britton

    1.7 Wilson

    1.2 Thornton

    0.3 Morales & Wright

    0.1 Bailey & beato

    0.0 Villareal

    negative: Bard, de la Torre, de la Rosa, Webster, Aceves, Hanarahan (best to worst)

     

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share