A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Personally I'd say McCann and Napoli.



    i like this also...

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to LagunaJose's comment:

    So starting pitching in 2014 with five high-priced starters will cost about $23 mil. more than in 2013 when we had only four high-priced starters. Of the $23 mil. more $16.5 is due to Peavey.

    Moonslav's stats show that we only have $32.5 mil. to spend on the four holes in the lineup at SS, C, CF, and 1B. What they might demand on the market is

    Salty      11 mil

    Napoli    13 mil

    Drew      11 mil.

    Ellsbury  16 mil.

    Total       51 mil.

    So in order to sign all four we would exceed the luxury cap of $189 mil by $18.5 mil.

    Conclusion: we can't sign them all unless we trade Dempster ( 13.25 mil.) or Peavey (16.5)

                           or not sign Ellsbury ( 16 mil.) or Drew ( 11 mil.)

    My guess is that either Boggy or Bradley will be playing fulltime next year.



    Id say it's not either or, Boggy is starting and JBJ may be also.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, tell me about Mujica--can he close once in a while?   We have to keep Koji fresh next year.

    Yes, he can, but I'm not sure we can fill a few holes and have money leftover for him.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    For argument's sake let's say we have $32M to spend and these are the only guys we can choose from. Who do you sign without going over $32M?

     

    $19M Ellsbury 

    $17M Choo     

    $16M Beltran

    $16M McCann

    $15M Grandy

    $15M Napoli

    $14M K Morales

    $12M Drew

    $10M Salty 

    $8M Ruiz

    $7M Mujica

    $4M Suzuki

    $4M B Ryan

    $4M J Crain

     

    Let's say we trade Dempster for a prospect and pay $3M of his contract. (+$10M)

    We restructure Lackey's deal to even out his payments over 2 years. (+$8M)

    Trade Middy and Morales for a good catcher.

    Now, we have $50M to spend and could do something like this:

     

    16 Beltran

    15 Napoli

    12 Drew

    7 Mujica

    (Bogey at 3B)

     

    or

     

    17 Choo (or Beltran)

    12 Drew

    10 Salty (or no Mujica and go with McCann)

    7 Mujica

    4 Susuki

    (Middy/Carp/Nava/Papi play 1B)

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to LagunaJose's comment:

    So starting pitching in 2014 with five high-priced starters will cost about $23 mil. more than in 2013 when we had only four high-priced starters. Of the $23 mil. more $16.5 is due to Peavey.

    Moonslav's stats show that we only have $32.5 mil. to spend on the four holes in the lineup at SS, C, CF, and 1B. What they might demand on the market is

    Salty      11 mil

    Napoli    13 mil

    Drew      11 mil.

    Ellsbury  16 mil.

    Total       51 mil.

    So in order to sign all four we would exceed the luxury cap of $189 mil by $18.5 mil.

    Conclusion: we can't sign them all unless we trade Dempster ( 13.25 mil.) or Peavey (16.5)

                           or not sign Ellsbury ( 16 mil.) or Drew ( 11 mil.)

    My guess is that either Boggy or Bradley will be playing fulltime next year.



    Id say it's not either or, Boggy is starting and JBJ may be also.



    I do think that if we plan on Bogey, Middy and JBJ to be FT'ers in 2014, we will have a couple very capable back-up vets added to the roster: a super utility IF'er who can play good SS Defense, and a CF'er that can keep Victorino in RF in case JBJ struggles.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Choo Seeking To Exceed Werth's $126MM Contract By  Jeff Todd [November 9 at 12:46pm CST]

    Outgoing Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is being shopped above the seven-year, $126MM contract inked by Jayson Werth with the Nationals before the 2011 season, reports ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). The Scott Boras client, who is unquestionably one of the game's most attractive open market commodities, has long been rumored to be looking fornine figures, though a report yesterday said he was asking more in the $90MM range.  

    The Werth comparison does make sense, so far as it goes. Both Werth and Choo hit the market in their early thirties, coming off of high-OBP, mid-140-OPS+ campaigns. Werth has shown somewhat more pop, while Choo reaches base like few others. Each is regarded as a good glove in the corner outfield. But as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained in profiling Choo, the Werth contract has been viewed as a non-precedential deal. Hence, he predicts, Choo will probably get something more like six years and $100MM. Of course, contextual perception is important; with Werth coming off of an outstanding year, Boras may be able to argue that the contract is hardly the albatross it has been characterized as.

    Whether or not Boras can land a Werth-sized deal, there is little question that Choo is hitting free agency at an opportune time. The remaining corner outfield market is thin, Choo returned to his earlier-career levels of performance last year, and new TV money could provide a boost in salaries around the game.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Brian McCann Could Net $100MM Deal By  Jeff Todd [November 9 at 1:02pm CST]

    With strong interest from several big-budget American League clubs, catcher Brian McCannis looking at a perfect free agent storm that could net him a deal reaching $100MM, reports CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman. Soon to be thirty years of age, McCann is represented by B.B. Abbott.

    The primary basis for Heyman's report is the fact that four clubs with a history of inking nine-figure deals could be chasing McCann. Each of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers could make a major upgrade by adding the left-handed-swinging backstop, says Heyman. He also names the Rockies and Giants as possibly interested clubs, though both seem less likely to make a real run.

    One executive did tell Heyman that McCann could end up with multiple offers in the same range of around five years and $80MM, forcing him simply to decide where he'd like to play. But Heyman argues that the market alignment makes a "blow-away offer" a distinct

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    No way I come close to paying either of those two that amount.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    No way I come close to paying either of those two that amount.



    that's what i was thinking....

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Let's assume we lose all 4 big free agents.

    What's the best we can do without signing any QO free agents?

    Can we do it and still be competitive?

     

    I guess we'd start with signing Salty, since McCann is a QO FA.

    So far, the QOs I know are:

    Beltran, Cano, Choo, Cruz, Drew, Ellsbury, Granderson, Jiminez, Kuroda, McCann, K Morales, Napoli, & E Santana 

     

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/boston-red-sox-carlos-beltran-tim-hudson-carlos-ruiz-free-agency-trade-rumors-110913

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2014/

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    My last words (notice I didn't say THE last words) on the Nava/Gomes World Series debate...

    1. None of us knows exactly why Farrell made the decision he made. The public word was that Gomes brings intangibles and the team was winning so...

    2. Neither player had a statistically good Series but Gomes got a few huge hits, especially the three run bomb, and Nava is less likely to deliver bombs.

    3. Gomes is a smarter, more instinctive player. I game six he scores from first on Vic's wall-ball. No way Nava does that. Sox up 3-0, not 2-0, huge difference.

    Unless the off-season goes far afield from what I suspect, and a right-hander is starting against us on opening day, Nava, not Gomes, will be starting in left field.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    And speaking of this off-season, and reading all the rumors flying, I can't help but wonder how these rumors are started. My best bet is the agents all have media folks they can rely on to leak snippets of info. And we all know that if it's on the internet it must be true, right? So Beltran, Hudson, McCann and Ruiz are not walking through the door any time soon. Maybe one of them is, maybe two. If I were a gambling man, I would bet on none of the four. As usually happens at this time of year, Ben is quietly working on things we have no clue about. Who saw the 2013 team taking shape the way it did before Ben presented us with the finished product? The World Series win should have purchased a ton of credibilty and trust for Ben and John Farrell, not second-guessing. While it's fun to speculate and team-build on our own, it's also safe to assume that the blueprint Ben put into effect when he jettisoned the wealthy to the Dodgers is not going to be redrawn this off-season. In Ben I trust.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    And speaking of this off-season, and reading all the rumors flying, I can't help but wonder how these rumors are started. My best bet is the agents all have media folks they can rely on to leak snippets of info. And we all know that if it's on the internet it must be true, right? So Beltran, Hudson, McCann and Ruiz are not walking through the door any time soon. Maybe one of them is, maybe two. If I were a gambling man, I would bet on none of the four. As usually happens at this time of year, Ben is quietly working on things we have no clue about. Who saw the 2013 team taking shape the way it did before Ben presented us with the finished product? The World Series win should have purchased a ton of credibilty and trust for Ben and John Farrell, not second-guessing. While it's fun to speculate and team-build on our own, it's also safe to assume that the blueprint Ben put into effect when he jettisoned the wealthy to the Dodgers is not going to be redrawn this off-season. In Ben I trust.



    Ben has earned my trust too. I am sure he has a plan. Nice to speculate, but I have to agree that not many of these players will probably make the final roster. 1st and catcher are still to be settled, but the Sox may go with Vic, JBJ, Gomes/Nava in the outfield and ??? (Carp?)/Pedey/Bogy/Middlebrooks for an infield.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If I had to speculate, I would say Salty and Naps return, Salty for something like 3/$25mil and Naps  something like 3/$40. I think the outfield is Gomes/Nava, JBJ and Vic, left to right and the infield is Middlebrooks, Bogey, Pedy and Naps, left to right. And Salty and Ross continue behind the plate. The hope would be that the left side of the infield makes up for the drop off in centerfield production offensively, but it will be difficult to replace Drew defensively. Of course, I could be all wet, like most of these rumors.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    And speaking of this off-season, and reading all the rumors flying, I can't help but wonder how these rumors are started. My best bet is the agents all have media folks they can rely on to leak snippets of info. And we all know that if it's on the internet it must be true, right?

    I suspect management has leaked "snippets of info" to the media as well in hopes of gaining an advantage in negotiations. It cuts both ways.


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Not saying it's going to happen but this is what I would do:

    Rather than speculate on trades which may or may not be realistic, and factoring the real salary limitations the team has ( They are not going over the luxury tax limit this year guys ), I think we really need to think about getting the most value from our off season spend. What results in the most wins?

    Given: $30 mil in available resources roughly against the luxury tax limit

    Option A: Make a $52 mil bid for negotiating rights to Tanaka. If he accepts keep it under $60 mil for at most for 5-6 years. If it's really the top 3 bids having an equal shot at Tanaka make it a $42 mil negotiating bid.

    I go with this first to see if it works. The guy was 17 - 0 last year if I remember correctly with an ungodly low ERA and he's 25. He sure appears to be decent from the numbers and since no one has seen him in mlb he probably at least starts well in mlb and we are in win now mode. He appears to be Koji or Kuroda with better stuff! And a starter. Teams pay a fortune for talent like that and he needs to be target A on this team. It's like acquiring the rights to the next Felix Hernandez potentially. You know what, he might just be incredibly good and in his prime. He costs no picks and much of the money doesn't count against the luxury tax limit, no small consideration. Of course he is Option A. Sometimes you just have to roll the dice if you want to win. It may fail but the potential upside is so great that it is worth this risk.

    If that falls through and we lose out on that opportunity go to:

    Option B; Make Kuroda think seriously about joining a World Championship team with Koji and Junichi by offering him $20 mil to join the Sox. We may not get him either but if the Yanks do at least they will have to pay big bucks for him. The Yanks only paid $15 mil last year. Why wouldn't Kuroda consider $20 mil this year, to join a championship level team? My bet is that he wants that kind of cash still. And he joins a world championship team with international success and popular Japanese players already. It's not crazy to think that $20 mil might get that done. And he is possibly one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Consistently great numbers for the last 4 years in a row in the AL east, in a park not suited for his game. If anything, he should be even better in Fenway. I recognize he is 39 but he has been consistently solid every year.

    If either of these two options take place, and preferably Tanaka's since it's $10 mil less against the luxury tax limit, we trade Peavy who actually costs more than Tanaka against the luxury limit probably. Even Kuroda would essentially only cost us $4-$5 mil or so against the $30 mil we have to spend to keep us under the luxury tax limit. We want those revenue sharing dollars badly. It's important that we stay under the luxury tax limit and we probably even get some talent back in the Peavy trade. 

    Hopefully Napoli declines soon and we pass on his option but use that money for a 2 year deal with Beltran. He's better Papi protection than Napoli by a significant margin. Much better numbers. Helps bolster our OF with the loss of Ellsbury. Make him our primary LF option. Move Nava to 1st, with Carp and Ortiz as backup. I think that is fine at 1st. We can probably sign Youk as deep backup for 3rd and 1st for $3-$5 mil.

    Sign Rajai Davis as our 5th OF. So the OF would be Beltran, JBJ, Victorino with RH subs of Davis and Gomes. I think Davis costs $5 mil per year but he is the best available pinch runner we can get for late inning opportunities when we need a stolen base. That alone gets us 2-3 wins a year and he's a decent hitting sub also. I think this keeps us under the luxury tax limit and maximizes our team's opportunity for success.

    Rotation:

    Lester
    Lackey
    Kuroda/Tanaka ( adding no more than $4-5 mil against the luxury tax limit if we sign Kuroda and trade Peavy. We gain money against the luxury tax limit if we sign Tanaka )
    Doubront
    Buchholz

    Possibly the best rotation in baseball.

    Lineup:

    Victorino
    Pedroia
    Ortiz
    Beltran/Gomes ($14 mil per year for Beltran, less per year if 3 year deal )
    Bogaerts
    Nava/Carp/Youk ($3 - $5 mil per year as backup)
    Middlebrooks/Youk
    Ross/Lavarnway/Ruiz (If we can do Tanaka and trade Peavy, we then can sign a catcher like Ruiz for up to $8 mil per year and still have $3-$5 mil left over for contingencies )
    JBJ/Rajai Davis ( $5 mil )

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Maybe some of you internet research folks can clarify something for me. If we were to trade a Dempster as a salary dump, but agree to pay half or more of his salary, does the receiving team absorb the entire contract for luxary tax purposes or just the portion they pay, leaving us responsible, for tax purposes, for what we pay?



    The part I highlighted is the correct answer.  We are paying about $4 million a year for 3 years on the contracts we traded to the Dodgers, and that counts against us for tax purposes.

     

     



    Thanks nut!



    I say we get that 4m a year over the next 3 years back (and more) by trading Dempster for Ethier.

    Ethier and 4m for Dempster in '14 is a salary wash. Ethier and 4m a year for the 3 years after that gives us the guy at the same 3/39 we just paid for Victorino ages 32-34 for Ethier age 33-35 years. Ethier is the slightly better player and far healthier player. Shane's 3 years before his 2012 disaster, ages 28-30, he was a .280/.345/.800 guy with 15 HR's a year.

    Ethier last 3 years ages 29-31 was a .285/.360/.800 guy who was VERY durable, avg 510 AB's a year, was a 15 HR/30 2B guy in a pitchers park and is versatile enough to play all 3 OF spots like Victorino. He is also one of Dusty's best friends from ASU.

    If ages 32-35 he drops down to a .270/.345/.785 guy, who keeps the same power #'s b/c of Fenway, I am fine with that in our 7-8 hole as LA picks up some of the tab.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I


    Would 6 years and 100 million really be that bad for McCann?

    I mean we would assume some breakdown like this:

    2014: 16m - 80% C and Ross 20% C

    2015: 19m - 80% C and Vazquez 20% C

    2016: 19m - 50% C and Vazquez 50% C,

                     - 40% DH (w/ Papi retired and Naps hopefully here at 60%)

    2017: - 16m - 50% DH and 30% C (mentor to Swihart rookie year)

    2018: - 16m - 70% DH and 20% C

    2020: - 14m - 60% DH and 20% C

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I keep hearing $100 mil for McCann but I'm not buying it. Probably under $90 mil if he's lucky and I think closer to $80 mil. The Yanks want him I would think but this year they want to stay under the luxury tax limit and they have lots of other needs. I think lower cost catchers get snapped up and McCann takes less of a deal. If the Yanks aren't able to drive the market and the Dodgers are a little restrained, it helps keep costs down a lot. Even the Redsox only have $30 mil to spend with lots of needs also.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I keep hearing $100 mil for McCann but I'm not buying it. Probably under $90 mil if he's lucky and I think closer to $80 mil. The Yanks want him I would think but this year they want to stay under the luxury tax limit and they have lots of other needs. I think lower cost catchers get snapped up and McCann takes less of a deal. If the Yanks aren't able to drive the market and the Dodgers are a little restrained, it helps keep costs down a lot. Even the Redsox only have $30 mil to spend with lots of needs also.

    With the influx of new television revenues, we should brace ourselves for some sticker shock in free agent contracts this offseason. The early deals for Tim Lincecum and Hunter Pence are evidence of what to expect. I would not project salaries this offseason on contracts from previous years.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I just don't get the McMann talk when we've got someone who does the same thing and already has a comfort level with the pitchers.  Furthermore it sounds like we have catchers about two years away.  If we don't land Salty, then pick up a serviceable catcher who teams with Ross.  McCann controls the run game better, but Salty's his equal elsewhere.

     
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