Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I
posted at 11/23/2013 5:57 AM EST
In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
In response to southpaw777's comment:
They didnt have a ton of power in the OF this year so I really think your reading too much into whatever comment you heard.
Choo is looking at the same kind of deal as Ells and hes about 1.5 years older, so my guess is if they dont sign Ells, then its probably no on signing Choo. He also has huge splits vs LHP (sub 700OPS). Choo is also an average of 15-20HR a year and gets caught stealing at about a 30-35% clip. Not good. Im not saying his not a good player, because he is. All Im saying is committing 6-7 years and the kind of $$ him and Boras are looking for to a guy thats going to be 32 in July isnt the smartest thing to do taking everything into consideration. You cant say a player would have hit .300 playing in Fenway with a ton of 2b and HR. Thats ridiculous. theres no way of knowing that. They said Naps would have 35HR playing in Fenway. That didnt work out so well. Actually, I think Naps had better numbers away from Fenway. Nava and Choo are actually very similar. Slightly lower numbers for Nava, but hes a .300 hitter that can hit 10-15HR with an OBP around .380-.400 at a 500K salary compared to a possible 20M per deal.
Corey Hart on a 1yr make good deal makes sense instead of a multiple player platoon at 1b. You should look at his numbers before posting. Yes, he had knee issues in 2013, not the last 2 years though. Hart is a 30HR hitter who can drive in 80-100RBI (87 HR 2010-12) hes a 280 BA, .340OBP and almost .500SLG. Hes averaged an .850OPS 2010-12. His splits are both north of .825 vs LH and RHP. In 103 games at 1b hes looked good. He doent need to be platooned. maybe rested a few games. He can also go to the corner OF in NL parks so papi can play too. Id rather have a proven player at 1b than mess with a bunch of platoons. Thats overthinking things.
They seem to really be interested in Beltran in the OF though. Not sure I like him for 3 years. After Thanksgiving things should heat up a bit.
Yes, Hart did play in 2012. My bad.
Is that what you want though, Hart at 1st base? About the same hitter as Napoli maybe but much worse defensively, and playing fulltime at around $9 mil or more or a platoon of Carp and someone like Morse at 1/2 the cost optimized right to left. Aging with 2 bad knees? Carp put up decent numbers and he's cheap. Why not promote from within when we have Nava also and Ortiz to back them up?
Virtually no one thinks Choo will get the same deal as Ellsbury besides you but beyond that he is much worse defensively and not even a real CF in most team's eyes. They are apples to pears but the bottom line is that according to their hit charts Ellsbury is hurt by Fenway and Choo is helped by Fenway. Yes, hit charts do matter. They are significant data. Ellsbury can barely play wall ball with like 2 balls which would have even touched the wall or gone over last year. His best stroke is to line it to left field but pitchers don't even give him that outside pitch much any more and Fenway being so small in LF he is hurt plus it's tough to hit it out in RF so Ellsbury is not optimized at all offensively in Fenway. Choo, on the other hand, according to his hit chart looks more like David Ortiz according to his hit chart:
Overlay Choo's hits over Fenway park and you will see why i made my BOLD prediction. One could also say FOOLISH prediction as there is no indication they want to sign Choo in the news but from a data driven perspective, Choo is a solid sign as a corner OF particularly in LF. And according to one report Farrell said they wouldn't want to go with JBJ as the starter in CF unless they had more power from the corner slots. So we looked at who would represent power in the corner slots ( other than trades which of course could certainly happen ) and it came down to the power based FA like Granderson, Choo, Beltran...etc. I think Beltran and Choo are the best fits. Choo's hit chart indicated he is a better fit.
I don't know, do you think Choo's .423 OBP would look good as our lead off guy when he also hit twice as many HR last year as Ellsbury and has proven to be more durable and is clearly more optimized in Fenway and will probably be cheaper than Ellsbury?
Southpa, you say you like Hart's .850 OPS over the period of 2010-2012. Look at Morse's OPS in the same period and he should cost less:
By the way, I don't want to trade Nava but Farrell is obviously not a fan if he starts Gomes over and over him against RH pitchers in the playoffs. I like Nava. I hope they keep him as he can back up in LF, RF, 1st and DH and he's cheap but if they could get some decent talent for my mother I'd trade her in a heartbeat if she were a baseball player!
Seriously though, as much as I like Nava, that real estate in LF is valuable. We need major pop in that slot and Nava's defensive value is the biggest reason why he never got much of a shot coming up. There was no obvious place for him defensively. He's probably best off as Kansas City's DH or something like that if they trade Butler...etc. and as a reserve OF / 1st base guy. Defense matters.
Finally, when I look at Hart's 100 plus games at 1st base I don't think of the word "good". He's a major liability defensively.
Our brains must be wired differently. We look at the same data and see completely different outcomes. I'm a democrat. I bet you are a Republican!
I dont like Choo because of the $$ and years, not because hes not good, well, besides his defense, which has got a lot worse the last 2 years. And No, Im not the only one that thinks Choo can very well get north of 100M. He will prob get a year or 2 less than Ells, but the same anual AAV is what I was talking about and what Im concerned about.
I saw Hart play 1b a number of times. Hes NOT a liability, but you rely on the numbers like everyone did with Drew. How'd that work out? Take defensive metrics with a grain of salt and do not rely soley on them. Just out of curiosity, what defensive metrics at 1b did you look at?
I dont have an issue with Morse. I just like Hart better. His War of -05 and Harts of 2.0 is why Hart costs more. Hart is the obvious better all around player. I dont care for a Platoon. Carp will get his share of AB's this year somewhere. Personally, Im not a huge fan for a lot of platoons. Maybe thats why we look at different players. Regardless whether it was Morse or Hart, they would both be my FT starter at 1b with no platoon. The difference for me is Morse made just under 7M this year (Hart 10M), and I imagine he will require more than a 1yr deal that would be close to what Hart could get for only 1yr. I dont want to sign someone like Morse for 3 years. Hart may cost slightly more, or not, but its only for one year and we probably can get a draft pick out of it after 2014 if hae has a good year. Those 1yr make good deals have some solid benefits to them. See Beltre/Drew. And since this is a realistic thread...Realistically, Papi is NOT going to be a BU 1b option. He will play 1b in NL parks only.
Beltran on no more than a 2yr deal around 14-16M wouldnt bother me either. Any more than that, I pass.
Oh, and I dont follow politics...They are all fake, liars and thieves :) And yes, I would say our brains are certainly "wired" differently.