A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but with the posting fee reduced to "only" $20mil, isn't it possible that Tanaka stays at home in 2014?



    There was talk the team would not allow Tanaka to leave for just $20M, but I doubt they leave that much on the table.

    The new system makes it more likely Tanaka gets paid much more, since all the teams that bid the $20M will be able to bargain against each other driving up the price.



    I admit to being in the dark on this Moon. Can his Japanese team simply say "no you're not going" if they can't cash in more?



    I think the team can say no to the $20M posting fee and keep him. They expected much more and may try and send a message by refusing the $20M, but $20M is a lot of beans for a Japanese team to turn down.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Speaking of pitching depth, here is a list of all the Sox pitchers that could see ML action this season:

    SP:

    Lester

    Buch

    Lackey

    Peavy

    Doubront

    Dempster

    [RP/SP: Morales, Workman, Britton, de la Rosa, Couch, Hernandez, Kehrt]

    Webster

    Wright

    Ranaudo

    Barnes

    Hinojosa

    Owens

    M Pena

     

    RP:

    Uehara

    Mujica

    Tazawa

    Breslow

    Badenhop

    Miller

    Morales

    Workman

    Britton

    de la Rosa

    Villareal

    A Wilson

    Carpenter

    Layne

    C Martin

    Couch

    Hernandez

    Kehrt

    Noe Ramirez

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 45m

    Ben Cherington hinted around the #Redsox would sign submariner Shunsuke Watanabe to a minor league deal. Japanese media now reporting such

     
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think the team can say no to the $20M posting fee and keep him. They expected much more and may try and send a message by refusing the $20M, but $20M is a lot of beans for a Japanese team to turn down.

    [/QUOTE]

    The entire payroll of the Rakuten Eagles is about $17.49 million depending on the exchange rate

    The salary for Tanaka is about $3.89 million

    Tanaka represents 22.24 % of their entire payroll and makes 4x more than any other player on the team. 

    That means that the $20 million posting fee could pay the entire payroll of the team for close to the next two years without Tanaka since average salaries dropped by 4% last year over there.  I'm not sure the Rakuten Eagles will want to risk that, but if they did it would be out of protest for what they feel is getting cheated out of an extra $40 million.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to J-BAY's comment:

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 45m

    Ben Cherington hinted around the #Redsox would sign submariner Shunsuke Watanabe to a minor league deal. Japanese media now reporting such

     



    http://www.pinstripealley.com/2013/11/9/5081238/yankees-international-free-agent-target-shunsuke-watanabe

    Looks like a Japanese Chad Bradford, except he is 37 years old... we should not expect much from a guy with a 72 MPH fastball

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In honor of the Boston Red Sox winning this year's World Series, I decided (a month ago) to grow a beard.   Laughing

    My goal is to look like Napoli (which will take me around three years  LOL).  

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In honor of the Boston Red Sox winning this year's World Series, I decided (a month ago) to grow a beard.   Laughing

    My goal is to look like Napoli (which will take me around three years  LOL).  

     



    How's the wife taking it?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    72 mph fastball? Wow? 

    The guy better have an incredible groundball rate!

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nq7H5oCwxRY

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Apparently Ortiz hit a 525 foot HR off of him in 2004. The longest HR in Tokyo dome history.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Looks like Boras is trying real hard to create a market for S.Drew. Which looks like this might play into RS hands? Possibly another 1 yr signing at high $. Looks like Mets a possible suitor are only willing to go 1-2 yrs. IMO would be good to have Drew back for 1 more yr and let Boegarts slowly work his way as starter [playing SS vs tough LH's / & 3B]. A rotation of Drew/Bogey/ WMB would also give RS depth at SS/3B if someone got hurt or wasn't playing well and seems something that Ben likes = depth.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    Looks like Boras is trying real hard to create a market for S.Drew. Which looks like this might play into RS hands? Possibly another 1 yr signing at high $. Looks like Mets a possible suitor are only willing to go 1-2 yrs. IMO would be good to have Drew back for 1 more yr and let Boegarts slowly work his way as starter [playing SS vs tough LH's / & 3B]. A rotation of Drew/Bogey/ WMB would also give RS depth at SS/3B if someone got hurt or wasn't playing well and seems something that Ben likes = depth.



    I would rather have Drew for one year than Dempster for one year. Trading Dempster would clear budget room for the signing.

    Let's say we sign Drew, we could see this for PAs:

    SS: Drew 450 vs RHPs/75 vs LHPs  and Bogey 175 vs LHPs

    3B: Bogey 300 vs RHPs and Middy 150 vs RHPs/250 vs LHPs

    1B: Napoli 325 vs RHPs/250 vs LHPs and Middy 125 vs RHPs

    DH: Papi 450 vs RHPs/150 vs LHPs and Napoli 25 vs LHPs and Bogey 75 vs LHPs  

    This leaves no 1B PAs for Carp (traded?) and these totals:

    Drew 525

    Bogey 550

    Middy 525

    Napoli 600

    Papi 600

    If someone gets hurt for an extended time, the others could max out at PAs (650+ each).

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    72 mph fastball? Wow? 

    The guy better have an incredible groundball rate!

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nq7H5oCwxRY




    He gets hit A LOT...MiLB contract I think.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    Looks like Boras is trying real hard to create a market for S.Drew. Which looks like this might play into RS hands? Possibly another 1 yr signing at high $. Looks like Mets a possible suitor are only willing to go 1-2 yrs. IMO would be good to have Drew back for 1 more yr and let Boegarts slowly work his way as starter [playing SS vs tough LH's / & 3B]. A rotation of Drew/Bogey/ WMB would also give RS depth at SS/3B if someone got hurt or wasn't playing well and seems something that Ben likes = depth.



    I would rather have Drew for one year than Dempster for one year. Trading Dempster would clear budget room for the signing.

    Let's say we sign Drew, we could see this for PAs:

    SS: Drew 450 vs RHPs/75 vs LHPs  and Bogey 175 vs LHPs

    3B: Bogey 300 vs RHPs and Middy 150 vs RHPs/250 vs LHPs

    1B: Napoli 325 vs RHPs/250 vs LHPs and Middy 125 vs RHPs

    DH: Papi 450 vs RHPs/150 vs LHPs and Napoli 25 vs LHPs and Bogey 75 vs LHPs  

    This leaves no 1B PAs for Carp (traded?) and these totals:

    Drew 525

    Bogey 550

    Middy 525

    Napoli 600

    Papi 600

    If someone gets hurt for an extended time, the others could max out at PAs (650+ each).

     




    I wouldnt be against Drew back for only 1 year, but If Xander and Middy are in Boston, they both need at least 500+ AB's or its bad for their development. The Closer to 600PA's the better.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I would rather have Drew for one year than Dempster for one year. Trading Dempster would clear budget room for the signing.

    Let's say we sign Drew, we could see this for PAs:

    SS: Drew 450 vs RHPs/75 vs LHPs  and Bogey 175 vs LHPs

    3B: Bogey 300 vs RHPs and Middy 150 vs RHPs/250 vs LHPs

    1B: Napoli 325 vs RHPs/250 vs LHPs and Middy 125 vs RHPs

    DH: Papi 450 vs RHPs/150 vs LHPs and Napoli 25 vs LHPs and Bogey 75 vs LHPs  

    This leaves no 1B PAs for Carp (traded?) and these totals:

    Drew 525

    Bogey 550

    Middy 525

    Napoli 600

    Papi 600

    If someone gets hurt for an extended time, the others could max out at PAs (650+ each).

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I wouldnt be against Drew back for only 1 year, but If Xander and Middy are in Boston, they both need at least 500+ AB's or its bad for their development. The Closer to 600PA's the better.

    Well, the suggested guidline above gives them both over 500, but realistically, there's a good chance Papi, Drew or Napoli goes on the DL at some point, and that would increase both Middy and Bogey's total PAs to near 600. I don't think Bogey needs over 550 to further develop, in fact it might be best to keep him around 500-550. Middy should have no problem with 650 as long as he is not struggling like 2013.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I wonder what the Astros would offer us for Carp.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, that's the same kind of rotation I've been writing about for a month or more. Injuries, red hot bats, and ice cold bats can muddle the numbers some, but there should be enough at bats to keep everybody happy and everybody sharp. Then the only hole would be a right-handed hitting outfielder who can play a decent centerfield.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon, that's the same kind of rotation I've been writing about for a month or more. Injuries, red hot bats, and ice cold bats can muddle the numbers some, but there should be enough at bats to keep everybody happy and everybody sharp. Then the only hole would be a right-handed hitting outfielder who can play a decent centerfield.



    Yes, I'd prefer a decent CF'er who hits lefties well than Gomes or Carp, but I doubt that happens. JBJ is the man. If something goes wrong with that plan, Shane will slide to CF, Nava to RF and Carp and Gomes will platoon LF. Not great D, but pretty decent offense that is actually better than the OF with JBJ. They could also seek out an OF'er to patch things up and move everyone back.

    I'd also like to see a better utility IF'er than Holt. One that can play plus D at SS. Maybe McDonald?

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 1h

    #RedSox announce signing of Napoli. They DFA'd Alex Castellanos to make room on the 40-man roster.

     
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I wouldn't offer Drew more than $5 mil a year to come back to Boston, and I recognize that he is worth a lot more than that. If we don't take a pick for him now, will we ever take a pick for anyone beyond the guys just out of our price range like Ellsbury? We have the best prospect in baseball waiting to take over at SS. Why are we even considering bringing Drew back, making us potentially even going over the luxury tax limit?

    This is the biggest no brainer call of the off season. Thank God he didn't take the QO. Take the freaking pick. For God's sake take the pick. Don't even think about bringing him back when we have Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Cechinni already projected for the left side. We sign a low cost reserve middle infield guy and be done with it.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'm curioius which starter or starters get traded. I would think maybe Morales, Dempster, Peavy or Doubront. Doubront only for a real solid return. I think we can even trade 2 starters.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I wouldn't offer Drew more than $5 mil a year to come back to Boston, and I recognize that he is worth a lot more than that. If we don't take a pick for him now, will we ever take a pick for anyone beyond the guys just out of our price range like Ellsbury? We have the best prospect in baseball waiting to take over at SS. Why are we even considering bringing Drew back, making us potentially even going over the luxury tax limit?

    This is the biggest no brainer call of the off season. Thank God he didn't take the QO. Take the freaking pick. For God's sake take the pick. Don't even think about bringing him back when we have Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Cechinni already projected for the left side. We sign a low cost reserve middle infield guy and be done with it.

    In short, I'd rather have Drew and minus one sandwich pick than Dempster with the sandwich pick. I really don't have a ton of confidence in Middy. I hope I am wrong about him. I've been wrong plenty of times.

    I also think Bogaert's best position will be 3B, so I'm not sold on him as out SS for the next 15 years.

    I'm curioius which starter or starters get traded. I would think maybe Morales, Dempster, Peavy or Doubront. Doubront only for a real solid return. I think we can even trade 2 starters.

    I think Morales will be traded due to our lefty RP situation, but if we need budget space, I hope it is Dempster or Peavy. I'd like to keep Peavy, but he could bring a better return.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    Looks like Boras is trying real hard to create a market for S.Drew. Which looks like this might play into RS hands? Possibly another 1 yr signing at high $. Looks like Mets a possible suitor are only willing to go 1-2 yrs. IMO would be good to have Drew back for 1 more yr and let Boegarts slowly work his way as starter [playing SS vs tough LH's / & 3B]. A rotation of Drew/Bogey/ WMB would also give RS depth at SS/3B if someone got hurt or wasn't playing well and seems something that Ben likes = depth.



    I would rather have Drew for one year than Dempster for one year. Trading Dempster would clear budget room for the signing.

    Let's say we sign Drew, we could see this for PAs:

    SS: Drew 450 vs RHPs/75 vs LHPs  and Bogey 175 vs LHPs

    3B: Bogey 300 vs RHPs and Middy 150 vs RHPs/250 vs LHPs

    1B: Napoli 325 vs RHPs/250 vs LHPs and Middy 125 vs RHPs

    DH: Papi 450 vs RHPs/150 vs LHPs and Napoli 25 vs LHPs and Bogey 75 vs LHPs  

    This leaves no 1B PAs for Carp (traded?) and these totals:

    Drew 525

    Bogey 550

    Middy 525

    Napoli 600

    Papi 600

    If someone gets hurt for an extended time, the others could max out at PAs (650+ each).

     




    Be careful trading Carp. He's probably the one guy if Naps were to go down w/ injury [which he has been prone to do] that I wouldn't mind at 1B on everyday basis. We have nothing in minors, and not sure Nava or WMB would be able to handle on everyday basis. Ben likes depth this why I think Carp will be on 25 man. But like the rotation of the infielders, gives team choices and give RS a chance to see if Bogey is up for everyday SS job defensively if he is also could make in season trade of Drew. Yanks will probably be looking for SS during season. Really don't see a 40 yr playing SS all season and staying healthy? Ryan will drive fans crazy because he can't hit a lick. Just a poke at Yankee fans! You've worn me down that I agree trading Dempster would not be the worst thing = $ plus the depth we have we could withstand a Peavy + Buchholz on DL at the same time.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Be careful trading Carp. He's probably the one guy if Naps were to go down w/ injury [which he has been prone to do] that I wouldn't mind at 1B on everyday basis. We have nothing in minors, and not sure Nava or WMB would be able to handle on everyday basis. Ben likes depth this why I think Carp will be on 25 man. But like the rotation of the infielders, gives team choices and give RS a chance to see if Bogey is up for everyday SS job defensively if he is also could make in season trade of Drew. Yanks will probably be looking for SS during season. Really don't see a 40 yr playing SS all season and staying healthy? Ryan will drive fans crazy because he can't hit a lick. Just a poke at Yankee fans! You've worn me down that I agree trading Dempster would not be the worst thing = $ plus the depth we have we could withstand a Peavy + Buchholz on DL at the same time.

    As I have said, trading Gomes makes more sense to me than Carp, but I don't see Ben trading John's favorite.

    B Ryan will surprise Yankee fans with his defense: something they haven't see at SS in about 2 decades.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Cricketts...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Cricketts...



    It's that kind of hot stove season, and happily the result of NOT needing to completely rebuild what is already a championship roster. Not saying there won't be a few more tweaks, but if the season started tomorrow I would like our chances. Pitching, pitching, pitching!!!

     
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