A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Looks like Tanaka will stay in Japan and be the highest paid Japaneese player at 7.7M

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/rakuten-wont-post-tanaka-planning-record-contract-offer.html




     

    With one less starter on the market, it slightly increases the value of Dempster-Peavy.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    When Boom first mentioned Tanaka right after the WS, I frankly thought it was nuts--sorry Boom.  Trailing clouds of glory after the WS, seemed like we didn't need pitching and we had other concerns, but as time has passed I see the value of making our pitching as strong as possible.  It's the gold exchange of baseball, and if you have too much pitching, you can use the gold for the other needs.  I think you're right on this Boom, and if it doesn't happen until next year, I'm good with that too.  We can get in the mix.  And if what you are proposing about the money of BB is true, then that's another reason to act on him.  (PS.  I also watche a clip of him pitching.  Man that slider is nasty.)

    I also thought we didn't have to give up that other prospect with Morales.  But maybe it's not out of the ballpark.  Don't we still have to trade some players or we're going to lose them anyway--Moon?



    Crit, the "prospect" we gave up is 28 years old and last year was his first step beyond AA. Not sure he was in our long-term plans. The reality is that we used a surplus, Morales, to plug a hole, UIF, without damaging our core in the least. Plus I think it effectively takes Drew out of the mix and will net us a draft pick when Drew eventually signs with someone else. But to me the even bigger plus is that it will allow Bogey and Middlebrooks to start on the left side of the infield without looking over their shoulders at Drew potentially taking their playing time.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think we'll see Garza, Santana, Burnett, Jimenez, Arroyo and others get signed soon.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I don't think the Tanaka option is off the table yet. It's on then it's off, then it's on...etc. Until Tanaka signs that contract for next year it's not a done deal. We will see. Tanaka is saying some very respectful things regarding the situation. The honorable thing for Rakuten to do is to post him, and they know that. I think it still happens.

    We will see. If he is available, I hope they make a run at him and I don't see why they wouldn't. It may well be that he tops $150 mil before he's though though. Crazy as that sounds ( posting fee plus $130 mil for him ). We don't know what will happen but he does look for real and crazier deals have happened. One thing is for sure, he will be in tremendous demand. I doubt the sox go that high but who knows what they think of him. They have been scouting him as avidly as any team in baseball.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I predicted they would trade 2 starters one way or the other and so far Morales is one of them, which was clearly going to happen. Dempster or Peavy look to be the other but who knows. It depends on the deal. I could see them potentially selling high on Doubront also, if the deal is right. I would think the main goal would be to move salary though.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I predicted they would trade 2 starters one way or the other and so far Morales is one of them, which was clearly going to happen. Dempster or Peavy look to be the other but who knows. It depends on the deal. I could see them potentially selling high on Doubront also, if the deal is right. I would think the main goal would be to move salary though.



    There's no hurry now that Morales is gone. I'm all for trading Dempster to free up budget flex room, but unless a desperate GM makes an offer Ben cannot refuse, we should and likely will hold off until we see the spring health situation looks. Demspter's value may actually grow once the season is underway.

    I doubt we trade Doubront as he and Buch are the only proven SP'ers under team control beyond 2015.

    I'd bet we extend Lester. We may even seek to restructure Lackey's deal by adding a year and spreading out the payments between 2014 and the min wage 2015 season, maybe turning a $16M/2 deal into a $30M/3 deal that would knock about $5M off this seasons luxury limit budget number.  If we trade Dempster or Peavy, we may not need to restructure at all.

    By the end of 2014, we should have a better view on the liklihood of one or two of our young pitching prospects joining the club or rotation for 2015:

    25 Workman (RP?)

    24 Britton (RP?)

    29 Wright

    27 Hinojosa

    24 Ranaudo

    23 Barnes

    23 Webster

    21 Owens (2016?)

    ------------------

    2016>

    23 B Johnson

    21 Luis Diaz

    20 Stankiewicz

    19 T Ball

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think we'll see Garza, Santana, Burnett, Jimenez, Arroyo and others get signed soon.




    Had a feeling it would be Morales first. Mostly because we have more LH's than we need in the pen. I like the Herrera pickup, he's the perfect utility guy, seems RS were not sold on Holts ability to play SS, plus Herrra still has an option in the event Drew does come back. Agree with most thought we could have gotten alittle more for Morales[injuries?]

    Think you'll see most of these pitchers signed by the end of Jan. now that the Tanaka issue is resolved. Now it will be musical chairs and someoe or more will be left without a starter and can expect RS phone to get busy.

    Also totally disagree on the Butler vs Nava comparisions [too much egg nog?]. Not even close Nava coming off career yr at age 30 vs Butler 3 yrs younger who also puts up a 370 OBP 830 OPS yr in yr out and would hit 30 hr's and drive 100+ in RS lineup, and has been doing it for yrs. RH power difficult to find, Royals would never make this trade, RS would in heartbeat even though they already have there DH, could use as chip in another trade at worst case. While Butler terrible defensively, Nava won't be winning any GG and is a pretty decent defender, Butlers bat just too good!

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Had a feeling it would be Morales first. Mostly because we have more LH's than we need in the pen. I like the Herrera pickup, he's the perfect utility guy, seems RS were not sold on Holts ability to play SS, plus Herrra still has an option in the event Drew does come back. Agree with most thought we could have gotten alittle more for Morales[injuries?]

    I agree, but had we traded or will end up trading Dempster, I'd have liked to have kept Morales as SP insurance.

    Think you'll see most of these pitchers signed by the end of Jan. now that the Tanaka issue is resolved. Now it will be musical chairs and someoe or more will be left without a starter and can expect RS phone to get busy.

    Also totally disagree on the Butler vs Nava comparisions [too much egg nog?]. Not even close Nava coming off career yr at age 30 vs Butler 3 yrs younger who also puts up a 370 OBP 830 OPS yr in yr out and would hit 30 hr's and drive 100+ in RS lineup, and has been doing it for yrs. RH power difficult to find, Royals would never make this trade, RS would in heartbeat even though they already have there DH, could use as chip in another trade at worst case. While Butler terrible defensively, Nava won't be winning any GG and is a pretty decent defender, Butlers bat just too good!

    I do think Butler's bat is better than Nava's, but he costs more and is basically a DH. Nava is also under team control for 4 years while Butler for just 2.  While Nava is not great on defense, he does provide us some flexibility by being able to play LF, RF and 1B.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Had a feeling it would be Morales first. Mostly because we have more LH's than we need in the pen. I like the Herrera pickup, he's the perfect utility guy, seems RS were not sold on Holts ability to play SS, plus Herrra still has an option in the event Drew does come back. Agree with most thought we could have gotten alittle more for Morales[injuries?]

    I agree, but had we traded or will end up trading Dempster, I'd have liked to have kept Morales as SP insurance.

    Think you'll see most of these pitchers signed by the end of Jan. now that the Tanaka issue is resolved. Now it will be musical chairs and someoe or more will be left without a starter and can expect RS phone to get busy.

    Also totally disagree on the Butler vs Nava comparisions [too much egg nog?]. Not even close Nava coming off career yr at age 30 vs Butler 3 yrs younger who also puts up a 370 OBP 830 OPS yr in yr out and would hit 30 hr's and drive 100+ in RS lineup, and has been doing it for yrs. RH power difficult to find, Royals would never make this trade, RS would in heartbeat even though they already have there DH, could use as chip in another trade at worst case. While Butler terrible defensively, Nava won't be winning any GG and is a pretty decent defender, Butlers bat just too good!

    I do think Butler's bat is better than Nava's, but he costs more and is basically a DH. Nava is also under team control for 4 years while Butler for just 2.  While Nava is not great on defense, he does provide us some flexibility by being able to play LF, RF and 1B.

     




    I agree with you Moon. I said Butlers bat would be pretty solid in Fenway. But really, hes basically a DH. Nava can play OF/1b with good enough D. Under control for longer and less $$$. The Fact we already have Papi probably through 2015 and the comparison I posted from FG tells me that it wouldnt be worth it for the Sox to do, nor do I believe they actually would make that deal.

    Although Butler is the better offensive player, he would be more or less redundant here with Papi, because I just dont see butler as a FT 1b. The NEED just isnt there.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Plus, we have Napoli for 2 years.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Plus, we have Napoli for 2 years.




    yeah, that too ;)

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Had we not signed Napoli, then a Butler trade might have made some sense.

    Maybe I am over estimating Papi's longevity, but I think even 70% of the 2012-2013 Papi is worth keeping around in 2015 and maybe beyond.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Had we not signed Napoli, then a Butler trade might have made some sense.

    Maybe I am over estimating Papi's longevity, but I think even 70% of the 2012-2013 Papi is worth keeping around in 2015 and maybe beyond.




    If Papi shows some significant decline in 2014, the obviously I think they would wait to see how 2015 goes to even consider another year. He showed absolutely no signs of slowing down this year, so I really dont expect a big dropoff in production, if any.

    I still wouldnt put Butler as a FT 1b, so Papi and Naps would have to not be with us for me to consider it.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Exactly, and I'd probably rather have Napoli as our future DH than Butler, but it's close.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If Nava is a first baseman, then Butler is a 1st baseman. Butler's UZR/150 was just below average the entire time he was a 1st baseman and he only moved off the position beacause of Hosmer's emergence. Butler absolutely is an acceptable defender at 1st base. You guys are probably off on that one.

    Now that we have Napoli there is no way they want Butler. I was just saying before Napoli we might have been able to include Nava in a package of players to land Butler and maybe Hochevar. Nava would be a decent DH and he could back up at other positions. A handy, low cost guy who does have 2 more years of control than Butler. It wouldn't take much more than Nava to land Butler in my opinion. The value of a proven RH power bat like Butler is just more than even the 2 more years of low cost control represented by Nava though. We probably couldn't do it straight up.  

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If Nava is a first baseman, then Butler is a 1st baseman. Butler's UZR/150 was just below average the entire time he was a 1st baseman and he only moved off the position beacause of Hosmer's emergence. Butler absolutely is an acceptable defender at 1st base. You guys are probably off on that one.

    I wouldn't say a career -6.1 UZR/150 at 1B is "just below average", in fact since 2008, his -7.0 UZR/150 places him 29th out of 31 1Bmen with 2500+ innings.

    FYI: Hosmer was #30 and Adam Dunn #31.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    A UZR/150 of 0 is by definition average.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    A UZR/150 of 0 is by definition average.



    Well, he's not at zero, and -7.0 is way, way, way below average.

    Since 2008, there are 31 firstbasemen with 2500+ innings at 1B.

    #19 is at +0.2 Aubrey Huff

    #20 is at -0.1 Justin Smoak

    So in this time period, zero is actually at about the bottom 3rd line.

    Only 5 players were below -5.0. (Bottom 6th)

    Only 3 player were below -7.0. (Bottom 10th)

    He's not average at all. Not really that close either.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Fangraphs:

    Billy Butler UZR/150 for the only 2 years he played 1st regularly

    2009 = - 5.4

    2010 = - 4.5

    Here is a direct quote from Fangraphs regarding UZR which shows that basically Butler cost his team 5.4 runs defensively in 2009 and 4.5 runs in 2010, the last 2 years he played 1st fulltime:

    "As many of you already know, UZR is an advanced defensive metric that uses play-by-play data recorded by Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) to estimate each fielder’s defensive contribution in theoretical runs above or below an average fielder at his position in that player’s league and year. Thus, a SS with a UZR of zero is exactly average as compared to a SS in the same year and in the same league. If his UZR is plus, he is above average, and if it is minus, he is below average."

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The bottom line is if he costs us 4-5 runs defensively next year that would be more than compensated for by his bat. Butler is not an unacceptable 1st baseman.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In contrast, Nava was costing The Redsox runs at a 17 per year pace in the OF, and a 22 runs per year pace at 1st. Only a single season sample but Butler's was only a 2 year sample of playing 1st full time. Is Nava an unaceptable OF or 1st baseman, even though he costs us runs at over 3 times the rate? 

    The bottom line is that Butler was clearly acceptable as a 1st baseman.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Butler is a DH.

    He's 29th out of the top 31 1Bmen in a vary large sample size of 6 years.

    He won't kill a team at 1B by costing 5-7 runs a season on defense, but I thought we were debating if he was just below average or much worse. To me, if you place 29th out of 31, you are not "just below average", but since he is not at -15 UZR, I guess one could argue he is not far behind "just below average".

    Had we signed Beltran and traded Nava & Morales for Butler, I could see the reasoning, but I really like Nava in our line-up vs righties, and while I know I try not to be biased, but Nava does not look as bad as his UZR looks in LF. He scares me in Fenway's RF, but in LF I didn't see him as -14.2 bad in 2013.

    I have a gut feeling Napoli will have a big year in 2014. Just a gut feeling.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Boomer, I just have to agree with Moon on this one, although I do agree that Butler would be an offensive improvement.  But like was said, since Napoli signed, where would he fit?  Besides, Nava's OBP must factor in the whole scheme of things.  Don't you think?

    You, my friend, are stretching on this defensive thing.  I don't care how you dissect it, 29th out of 30 is just not good.

    Also, I don't know where the numbers came from and the details etc., but Nava looks good in left field.  Right field?  well, he doesn't really belong there, but he only plays there in a pinch anyway.

    Out of curiosity, do the numbers reflect how he plays only in left? or a combination of both fields?

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Amp and Moon, as I think you remember I advocated a deal like a Michael Morse platoon at 1st with Carp to go cheap at 1st and take the Napoli pick or trading someone like Nava for a Butler at 1st for an upgrade there in place of the Napoli option so we could save that pick. Compensation round picks are worth at least $7-8 mil in value. To me, it is a factor in who to sign and who not to sign, and by the way I think Kuroda is worth a pick even at 1-2 years since he would have projected to be our top 1-2 pitcher and we just came off a world series year so that is important plus it would devastate our biggest rival in the division so that is my reasoning there. Those picks are extremely important as I think I have shown at some length now with the revenue projection incentives I've noted regarding NESN and the lack of revenue sharing options for us by 2016 and lack of quality FA outfield options coming up.

    Since we have Napoli now there would be no point in adding Butler now. If we are concerned about defense, and we should be of course, then trading Nava for Butler would save 11-12 runs according to their UZR numbers. Just saying. Butler's defense is clearly not a deal killer.

    And if we did sign Beltran or Choo for LF ( in place of the Napoli sign ) we woul have upgraded the team offensively but with a little defense lost. I think both would have been a significant upgrade offensively though and in Choo's instance it gives us a stud OF player for a long time when there are very few such options out there.

    Moon, I haven't looked up the data you are citing because I trust your numbers are accurate but if the diference between 29th and 15th is about 5 runs I'm not that worried about it. Butler is less than average defensively. Maybe even significantly less than average ( I'll grant that ) but it is still at about a 5 runs per lost per year pace. I've seen quite a few people say he's a DH only at this point in his career. I don't think the numbers bear that out. I think he's a heck of a lot better at 1st than Prince Fielder probably, or Jason Giambi ever was, or a whole lot of pretty bad 1st basemen I've seen over the years.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I have a gut feeling Napoli will not have a big year in 2014. His BAPIP was 57 points above his career average last year, when he hit .259. Take 57 points off that what do you get? A .202 BA. I'm not projecting him to be that bad but the numbers do not indicate a renaisance any time soon. Or ever.

    Moon, you and I are both numbers guys. We both love Napoli's defense. We both like the person also I'm sure. I think most people like the Napoli sign but all of us liked the Crawford sign also, even though we didn't like or even believe the cost. Look at what the Napoli deal cost us. Now we are real close to the luxury tax limit and we have not really improved as a team and we even lost a pick anyway in the process. I think a case could be made that Carp should be playing 1st primarily, rather than Napoli if it would have saved us a pick and $13 mil. We could have lived with Carp and used the money elsewhere.

    Why in the heck am I so concerned about this today? It is because we just came off a WS win and now is the time to put the pedal to the metal and win, baby win. In my opinion we could have done a better job of optimizing this team for another playoff win.

     
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