A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Boomer, I just have to agree with Moon on this one, although I do agree that Butler would be an offensive improvement.  But like was said, since Napoli signed, where would he fit?  Besides, Nava's OBP must factor in the whole scheme of things.  Don't you think?

    You, my friend, are stretching on this defensive thing.  I don't care how you dissect it, 29th out of 30 is just not good.

    Also, I don't know where the numbers came from and the details etc., but Nava looks good in left field.  Right field?  well, he doesn't really belong there, but he only plays there in a pinch anyway.

    Out of curiosity, do the numbers reflect how he plays only in left? or a combination of both fields?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Amp and Moon, as I think you remember I advocated a deal like a Michael Morse platoon at 1st with Carp to go cheap at 1st and take the Napoli pick or trading someone like Nava for a Butler at 1st for an upgrade there in place of the Napoli option so we could save that pick. Compensation round picks are worth at least $7-8 mil in value. To me, it is a factor in who to sign and who not to sign, and by the way I think Kuroda is worth a pick even at 1-2 years since he would have projected to be our top 1-2 pitcher and we just came off a world series year so that is important plus it would devastate our biggest rival in the division so that is my reasoning there. Those picks are extremely important as I think I have shown at some length now with the revenue projection incentives I've noted regarding NESN and the lack of revenue sharing options for us by 2016 and lack of quality FA outfield options coming up.

    Since we have Napoli now there would be no point in adding Butler now. If we are concerned about defense, and we should be of course, then trading Nava for Butler would save 11-12 runs according to their UZR numbers. Just saying. Butler's defense is clearly not a deal killer.

    And if we did sign Beltran or Choo for LF ( in place of the Napoli sign ) we woul have upgraded the team offensively but with a little defense lost. I think both would have been a significant upgrade offensively though and in Choo's instance it gives us a stud OF player for a long time when there are very few such options out there.

    Moon, I haven't looked up the data you are citing because I trust your numbers are accurate but if the diference between 29th and 15th is about 5 runs I'm not that worried about it. Butler is less than average defensively. Maybe even significantly less than average ( I'll grant that ) but it is still at about a 5 runs per lost per year pace. I've seen quite a few people say he's a DH only at this point in his career. I don't think the numbers bear that out. I think he's a heck of a lot better at 1st than Prince Fielder probably, or Jason Giambi ever was, or a whole lot of pretty bad 1st basemen I've seen over the years.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I have a gut feeling Napoli will not have a big year in 2014. His BAPIP was 57 points above his career average last year, when he hit .259. Take 57 points off that what do you get? A .202 BA. I'm not projecting him to be that bad but the numbers do not indicate a renaisance any time soon. Or ever.

    Moon, you and I are both numbers guys. We both love Napoli's defense. We both like the person also I'm sure. I think most people like the Napoli sign but all of us liked the Crawford sign also, even though we didn't like or even believe the cost. Look at what the Napoli deal cost us. Now we are real close to the luxury tax limit and we have not really improved as a team and we even lost a pick anyway in the process. I think a case could be made that Carp should be playing 1st primarily, rather than Napoli if it would have saved us a pick and $13 mil. We could have lived with Carp and used the money elsewhere.

    Why in the heck am I so concerned about this today? It is because we just came off a WS win and now is the time to put the pedal to the metal and win, baby win. In my opinion we could have done a better job of optimizing this team for another playoff win.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Boomer, I just have to agree with Moon on this one, although I do agree that Butler would be an offensive improvement.  But like was said, since Napoli signed, where would he fit?  Besides, Nava's OBP must factor in the whole scheme of things.  Don't you think?

    You, my friend, are stretching on this defensive thing.  I don't care how you dissect it, 29th out of 30 is just not good.

    Also, I don't know where the numbers came from and the details etc., but Nava looks good in left field.  Right field?  well, he doesn't really belong there, but he only plays there in a pinch anyway.

    Out of curiosity, do the numbers reflect how he plays only in left? or a combination of both fields?



    Nava is a career - 9.6 in left field only, including a - 14.2 last year in LF. Probably the biggest impediment to Nava's career has always been that he just never had a position where he could play at an optimum level defensively. He could always hit but never was optimal in the field. Really his best position is as a 4th OF / primary DH. We will never see a Nava contract extention and he may never play beyond his initial 6 years of control. I sure hope he does but if he does it probably will be as a DH / reserve OF. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Look at what the Napoli deal cost us. Now we are real close to the luxury tax limit and we have not really improved as a team and we even lost a pick anyway in the process. I think a case could be made that Carp should be playing 1st primarily, rather than Napoli if it would have saved us a pick and $13 mil. We could have lived with Carp and used the money elsewhere.

    Why in the heck am I so concerned about this today? It is because we just came off a WS win and now is the time to put the pedal to the metal and win, baby win. In my opinion we could have done a better job of optimizing this team for another playoff win.

    [/QUOTE]

    If you want to win now, you want Napoli, not Carp.  Mike Napoli is a ready for prime time player, who would have been MVP of the 2011 WS if Cruz didn't blow it.  He is the kind of guy who can hit a bomb off Verlander to win an ALCS game 1-0 for you.  Carp is the kind of guy who only pinch-hits in the postseason, and goes 0 for 8.  Also, take note that Carp's BABip was .385 last year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Boom, no one can match your endurance, I'll give you that. Lots of dead horses in your wake, but no one can deny you your passion. Now I'm of the opinion that aside from the Ellsbury loss, that was not the least bit unexpected, Ben DID improve the team by doing little or nothing and allowing for our next round of players to take their place. I would much rather Bogey, Middlebrooks, Bradley in our lineup than older mercenaries like Choo or Drew. Just as I would like to see the same rotation that finished a championship campaign toe the rubber for next season without a Kuroda who faded badly last season when the games really started to count. Not to mention he would be much older than any of our other starters. When you have the best record in baseball, as unexpected as it was, and you win the World Series, you don't need a lot of improvement. Just follow the plan baby.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have a gut feeling Napoli will not have a big year in 2014. His BAPIP was 57 points above his career average last year, when he hit .259. Take 57 points off that what do you get? A .202 BA. I'm not projecting him to be that bad but the numbers do not indicate a renaisance any time soon. Or ever.

    Moon, you and I are both numbers guys. We both love Napoli's defense. We both like the person also I'm sure. I think most people like the Napoli sign but all of us liked the Crawford sign also, even though we didn't like or even believe the cost. Look at what the Napoli deal cost us. Now we are real close to the luxury tax limit and we have not really improved as a team and we even lost a pick anyway in the process. I think a case could be made that Carp should be playing 1st primarily, rather than Napoli if it would have saved us a pick and $13 mil. We could have lived with Carp and used the money elsewhere.

    Why in the heck am I so concerned about this today? It is because we just came off a WS win and now is the time to put the pedal to the metal and win, baby win. In my opinion we could have done a better job of optimizing this team for another playoff win.

    [/QUOTE]

    I my unsabermetric opinion Carp is much more likely to show a regression this season than Napoli. And you continue to dismiss the value of defense at first base, especially with two relative rookies on the left side. If ever an infield screamed out for superior defense from our first baseman, this is it. If Carp ever puts up numbers again like he did this year, I will eat all his baseball cards!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Look at what the Napoli deal cost us. Now we are real close to the luxury tax limit and we have not really improved as a team and we even lost a pick anyway in the process. I think a case could be made that Carp should be playing 1st primarily, rather than Napoli if it would have saved us a pick and $13 mil. We could have lived with Carp and used the money elsewhere.

    Why in the heck am I so concerned about this today? It is because we just came off a WS win and now is the time to put the pedal to the metal and win, baby win. In my opinion we could have done a better job of optimizing this team for another playoff win.

    [/QUOTE]

    If you want to win now, you want Napoli, not Carp.  Mike Napoli is a ready for prime time player, who would have been MVP of the 2011 WS if Cruz didn't blow it.  He is the kind of guy who can hit a bomb off Verlander to win an ALCS game 1-0 for you.  Carp is the kind of guy who only pinch-hits in the postseason, and goes 0 for 8.  Also, take note that Carp's BABip was .385 last year.

    [/QUOTE]

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

     

    HMMM

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If you are going to sacrifice some at defense, 1st base may be the place to do it if the near worst defensive 1st baseman in baseball only costs you 5-6 runs.

    Man, I'm going to have to get that medication everyone is telling me I need on these sports forums the way this off season is lining up!

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

    [/QUOTE]

    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Comparing Carp to Napoli is really a moot point.

    With the unknown RH power production of Middy next year at 3rd, it's essential to have Napoli's power bat covering Ortiz.  Although Carp does have some pop, it's the RH power threat that we really need.  Carp's niche is really as a substitute player or pinch hitter.

    Hopefully, after I'm sure the psychological demoralizing season last year with Napoli's avascular necrosis diagnosis, it really wouldn't surprise me if he has a better year in 2014.  The pressure if off him now and financially he even benefitted from the whole event.  As you all know, psychology plays a big factor at that level.  That being said, I kind of expect good things from Napoli.

    I know I disagree with a lot of you guys on this one, but the strike-outs still bother me.  It'd be nice if Napoli could lower that number...:)

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM



    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree...That is small market thinking. The Sox can afford a guy like napoli who is a proven commedity and fits well on this team and in this city. With 2 young players on the left side we NEED a solid defender at 1b. That, and along with his RH bat, its a no brainer.

    We didnt lose a pick per say, but just didnt get an extra one by signing Naps. The security of knowing what you have already is worth the 16M.

    I was for getting hart for 1yr if naps didnt sign, but guys like Morales and Butler werent even a consideration for me at 1b as they are both basically DH's with good offense and bad D.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Amp and Moon, as I think you remember I advocated a deal like a Michael Morse platoon at 1st with Carp to go cheap at 1st and take the Napoli pick or trading someone like Nava for a Butler at 1st for an upgrade there in place of the Napoli option so we could save that pick. Compensation round picks are worth at least $7-8 mil in value. To me, it is a factor in who to sign and who not to sign, and by the way I think Kuroda is worth a pick even at 1-2 years since he would have projected to be our top 1-2 pitcher and we just came off a world series year so that is important plus it would devastate our biggest rival in the division so that is my reasoning there. Those picks are extremely important as I think I have shown at some length now with the revenue projection incentives I've noted regarding NESN and the lack of revenue sharing options for us by 2016 and lack of quality FA outfield options coming up.

    Since we have Napoli now there would be no point in adding Butler now. If we are concerned about defense, and we should be of course, then trading Nava for Butler would save 11-12 runs according to their UZR numbers. Just saying. Butler's defense is clearly not a deal killer.

    And if we did sign Beltran or Choo for LF ( in place of the Napoli sign ) we woul have upgraded the team offensively but with a little defense lost. I think both would have been a significant upgrade offensively though and in Choo's instance it gives us a stud OF player for a long time when there are very few such options out there.

    Moon, I haven't looked up the data you are citing because I trust your numbers are accurate but if the diference between 29th and 15th is about 5 runs I'm not that worried about it. Butler is less than average defensively. Maybe even significantly less than average ( I'll grant that ) but it is still at about a 5 runs per lost per year pace. I've seen quite a few people say he's a DH only at this point in his career. I don't think the numbers bear that out. I think he's a heck of a lot better at 1st than Prince Fielder probably, or Jason Giambi ever was, or a whole lot of pretty bad 1st basemen I've seen over the years.

    [/QUOTE]

    I get the point that even if Butler is almost the worst fielding 1Bman the last 6 years, the disparity between him and the median is not as great as other positions. If the number 15 defensive 1Bman is +1.3 and Butler is -7.0, then I see him as -8.3 from the middle guy. And by the way, Fielder's UZR/150 since 2008 is -4.3, so if you think Fielder is bad...

    FYI: Napoli is +4.9 UZR/150, but could be much higher if last season represented a growth rather than an usupportable spike. That could be at least a 12 run differential over Butler. Very significant.

    Boom, I get your point about saving the pick. I started a thread a while back about how we could keep all our picks and get the best non QO guys out there at key positions. I'm not against your idea in theory. I'd have been fine with Hart at 1B, and upgrades at other positions.

    ________________________

     

    I have a gut feeling Napoli will not have a big year in 2014.

    His BAPIP was 57 points above his career average last year, when he hit .259. Take 57 points off that what do you get? A .202 BA. I'm not projecting him to be that bad but the numbers do not indicate a renaisance any time soon. Or ever.

    I know the numbers do not support that statement, that's why I said it was a "gut feeling". The only "data" I could cite is not scientific: Napoli is an up and down hitter: both within a season and from season to season. Every 3 years he has a huge up spike season from an otherwise consistent 

    On BAbip, while much of BAbip involves luck, I like to look deeper into the reasons for spikes and dips. I heard the same thing about Salty's 2013 "spike", but found that his higher BA was based on getting about 22 more hits. I also noticed he hit about 21 more line drives in 2013 than 2012. I'm sure luck was involved to some extent, but I think hitting more line drives is not luck and surely had something to do with his spike.

    Napoli had a huge spike in LD% in 2013. His career average is 19.4%, but in 2013 he had a 24.4% LD rate. He'd never had a season above 19.7%. Is this sustainable? I am not sure. Maybe seeing the ball better in Fenway helped. Maybe the line-up around him helped.

    As compared to 2012: (pro-rating 2012 to 498 ABs)

    2012: Hits 114 line drives 62 BAbip .273

    2013: Hits 129 line drives 76 BAbip .367

    Again, if every extra LD hit was a hit, that is almost the exact difference between the BAbips. I know this is not a scientific study of the differentials, but I'm pretty sure Napoli's hitting the ball harder had something to do with the spike.

     

    Moon, you and I are both numbers guys. We both love Napoli's defense. We both like the person also I'm sure. I think most people like the Napoli sign but all of us liked the Crawford sign also, even though we didn't like or even believe the cost. Look at what the Napoli deal cost us. Now we are real close to the luxury tax limit and we have not really improved as a team and we even lost a pick anyway in the process. I think a case could be made that Carp should be playing 1st primarily, rather than Napoli if it would have saved us a pick and $13 mil. We could have lived with Carp and used the money elsewhere.

    I do not disagree, but I do think we needed a big bat behind Papi. I get the Butler strategy, since we keep the draft choice worth maybe $5-7M or more, but I would have not preferred a DH type with limited fielding skills at 1B- the one position that is easy to fill from year to year. I'f rather have kept Nava and signed Hart, Morse or Loney.

    Why in the heck am I so concerned about this today? It is because we just came off a WS win and now is the time to put the pedal to the metal and win, baby win. In my opinion we could have done a better job of optimizing this team for another playoff win.

    I had wished we picked up a big bat too, and losing Ellsbury is going to hurt, but I still have faith in this team going forward. We kept the prospects and have a lot of upsdie potential at several positions next year. yes, there are lots of "ifs", but there would have been a lot with Butler too.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Boomer, I just have to agree with Moon on this one, although I do agree that Butler would be an offensive improvement.  But like was said, since Napoli signed, where would he fit?  Besides, Nava's OBP must factor in the whole scheme of things.  Don't you think?

    You, my friend, are stretching on this defensive thing.  I don't care how you dissect it, 29th out of 30 is just not good.

    Also, I don't know where the numbers came from and the details etc., but Nava looks good in left field.  Right field?  well, he doesn't really belong there, but he only plays there in a pinch anyway.

    Out of curiosity, do the numbers reflect how he plays only in left? or a combination of both fields?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Nava is a career - 9.6 in left field only, including a - 14.2 last year in LF. Probably the biggest impediment to Nava's career has always been that he just never had a position where he could play at an optimum level defensively. He could always hit but never was optimal in the field. Really his best position is as a 4th OF / primary DH. We will never see a Nava contract extention and he may never play beyond his initial 6 years of control. I sure hope he does but if he does it probably will be as a DH / reserve OF. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Fenway hurts a LF'ers UZR, because with the short wall, he will make less plays than LF'er is spacious parks.

    I'm not trying to say Nava is a plus defensive OF'er: he certainly is not, but I just don't think he is as bad as UZR/150 says it is.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If you are going to sacrifice some at defense, 1st base may be the place to do it if the near worst defensive 1st baseman in baseball only costs you 5-6 runs.

    Man, I'm going to have to get that medication everyone is telling me I need on these sports forums the way this off season is lining up!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If Butler gives us -7.0 at 1B and Napil gives us +4.9 (career) or +13.3 (2013), then the differential is much more than 5-6 runs. It could actually be 12-20 runs or more with a more shaky SS than Drew.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

    [/QUOTE]

    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree...That is small market thinking. The Sox can afford a guy like napoli who is a proven commedity and fits well on this team and in this city. With 2 young players on the left side we NEED a solid defender at 1b. That, and along with his RH bat, its a no brainer.

    We didnt lose a pick per say, but just didnt get an extra one by signing Naps. The security of knowing what you have already is worth the 16M.

    [/QUOTE]

    I see it as losing a pick, since not signing him meant a +1 in picks.

    Had we signed Loney instead of Napoli, we'd have a bigger question mark at 1B than we have now, but we'd have a pick and more money to spend elsewhere. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but there is a trade-off involved.

    I like Napoli's bat. His high K rate and streakiness can be frustrating at times, but he's a gamer.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

    [/QUOTE]

    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree...That is small market thinking. The Sox can afford a guy like napoli who is a proven commedity and fits well on this team and in this city. With 2 young players on the left side we NEED a solid defender at 1b. That, and along with his RH bat, its a no brainer.

    We didnt lose a pick per say, but just didnt get an extra one by signing Naps. The security of knowing what you have already is worth the 16M.

    [/QUOTE]

    I see it as losing a pick, since not signing him meant a +1 in picks.

    Had we signed Loney instead of Napoli, we'd have a bigger question mark at 1B than we have now, but we'd have a pick and more money to spend elsewhere. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but there is a trade-off involved.

    I like Napoli's bat. His high K rate and streakiness can be frustrating at times, but he's a gamer.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I dont disagree with that. I would have had an issue losing a 1st rounder, but not so much a comp pick seeing we still have one there. I veiw them as bonus picks, but I understand your thinking.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

    [/QUOTE]

    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree...That is small market thinking. The Sox can afford a guy like napoli who is a proven commedity and fits well on this team and in this city. With 2 young players on the left side we NEED a solid defender at 1b. That, and along with his RH bat, its a no brainer.

    We didnt lose a pick per say, but just didnt get an extra one by signing Naps. The security of knowing what you have already is worth the 16M.

    [/QUOTE]

    I see it as losing a pick, since not signing him meant a +1 in picks.

    Had we signed Loney instead of Napoli, we'd have a bigger question mark at 1B than we have now, but we'd have a pick and more money to spend elsewhere. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but there is a trade-off involved.

    I like Napoli's bat. His high K rate and streakiness can be frustrating at times, but he's a gamer.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I dont disagree with that. I would have had an issue losing a 1st rounder, but not so much a comp pick seeing we still have one there. I veiw them as bonus picks, but I understand your thinking.

    [/QUOTE]

    The difference between our #1 pick (last of the round) and the comp pick lost by keeping Napoli may only be 1-8 picks apart.

    I'm Ok with the Napoli signing and lost pick as opposed to gambling on Hart, Morse, Loney or creating new holes by trading for a guy like Butler. I'm happy with this offseason. Of course, I hated losing Ellsbury, but clearly it was better than outbidding the Yanks for him.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

    [/QUOTE]

    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That 13-$14 million dollars per year in difference could have been better spent. Is Napoli that much better than Carp? Really? Especially since he is striking out at a 30% rate already in his career and had a BAPIP of 57 points above his career average. I don't think he was worth the price difference.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    That 13-$14 million dollars per year in difference could have been better spent. Is Napoli that much better than Carp? Really? Especially since he is striking out at a 30% rate already in his career and had a BAPIP of 57 points above his career average. I don't think he was worth the price difference.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think you are vastly overrating Carp.  He is a good bench bat.  He is not good enough to be the everyday first baseman for the Boston Red Sox. 

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If you are going to sacrifice some at defense, 1st base may be the place to do it if the near worst defensive 1st baseman in baseball only costs you 5-6 runs.

    Man, I'm going to have to get that medication everyone is telling me I need on these sports forums the way this off season is lining up!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If Butler gives us -7.0 at 1B and Napil gives us +4.9 (career) or +13.3 (2013), then the differential is much more than 5-6 runs. It could actually be 12-20 runs or more with a more shaky SS than Drew.

    [/QUOTE]

    If that money went to a Kuroda or Tanaka I'm pretty sure the runs saved would have been more than compensated for.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    That 13-$14 million dollars per year in difference could have been better spent. Is Napoli that much better than Carp? Really? Especially since he is striking out at a 30% rate already in his career and had a BAPIP of 57 points above his career average. I don't think he was worth the price difference.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think you are vastly overrating Carp.  He is a good bench bat.  He is not good enough to be the everyday first baseman for the Boston Red Sox. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I looked at Carp as being part of a platoon, with a decent RH bat. i was thinking Morse, who could maybe have come back from his injury last year and maybe even be worth a pick at the end of the year.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

    [/QUOTE]

    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree...That is small market thinking. The Sox can afford a guy like napoli who is a proven commedity and fits well on this team and in this city. With 2 young players on the left side we NEED a solid defender at 1b. That, and along with his RH bat, its a no brainer.

    We didnt lose a pick per say, but just didnt get an extra one by signing Naps. The security of knowing what you have already is worth the 16M.

    [/QUOTE]

    I see it as losing a pick, since not signing him meant a +1 in picks.

    Had we signed Loney instead of Napoli, we'd have a bigger question mark at 1B than we have now, but we'd have a pick and more money to spend elsewhere. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but there is a trade-off involved.

    I like Napoli's bat. His high K rate and streakiness can be frustrating at times, but he's a gamer.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I would have prefered Loney also but Carp is pretty close to what he represented IMO.

    I actually like Napoli as a player, and there is data that he hits top quality pitching quite well, but the money could have been spent better IMO.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Boomer, I just have to agree with Moon on this one, although I do agree that Butler would be an offensive improvement.  But like was said, since Napoli signed, where would he fit?  Besides, Nava's OBP must factor in the whole scheme of things.  Don't you think?

    You, my friend, are stretching on this defensive thing.  I don't care how you dissect it, 29th out of 30 is just not good.

    Also, I don't know where the numbers came from and the details etc., but Nava looks good in left field.  Right field?  well, he doesn't really belong there, but he only plays there in a pinch anyway.

    Out of curiosity, do the numbers reflect how he plays only in left? or a combination of both fields?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Nava is a career - 9.6 in left field only, including a - 14.2 last year in LF. Probably the biggest impediment to Nava's career has always been that he just never had a position where he could play at an optimum level defensively. He could always hit but never was optimal in the field. Really his best position is as a 4th OF / primary DH. We will never see a Nava contract extention and he may never play beyond his initial 6 years of control. I sure hope he does but if he does it probably will be as a DH / reserve OF. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Fenway hurts a LF'ers UZR, because with the short wall, he will make less plays than LF'er is spacious parks.

    I'm not trying to say Nava is a plus defensive OF'er: he certainly is not, but I just don't think he is as bad as UZR/150 says it is.

    [/QUOTE]

    Fangraphs adjusted for that a couple of years ago. That was the case before that adjustment. They did it after Ellsbury's bad UZR year. I think they have factored the Fenway wall issue quite well now. Neither Gomes or Nava have been good outfielders in any park, ever defensively ( I haven't checked the data but I think that is probably the case ).

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

     

    [/QUOTE]

    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree...That is small market thinking. The Sox can afford a guy like napoli who is a proven commedity and fits well on this team and in this city. With 2 young players on the left side we NEED a solid defender at 1b. That, and along with his RH bat, its a no brainer.

    We didnt lose a pick per say, but just didnt get an extra one by signing Naps. The security of knowing what you have already is worth the 16M.

    I was for getting hart for 1yr if naps didnt sign, but guys like Morales and Butler werent even a consideration for me at 1b as they are both basically DH's with good offense and bad D.

    [/QUOTE]

    No disrespect intended but the data indicates Hart is a lot worse defensively at 1st base. For his career there he is -13.2 and in Butler's worst full season year ever was not even a -6. Hart is projected to give up at least 7 more runs per year than Butler, who you do not even consider acceptable as a 1st base defender. It just doesn't compute.

     
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