A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I looked at Carp as being part of a platoon, with a decent RH bat. i was thinking Morse, who could maybe have come back from his injury last year and maybe even be worth a pick at the end of the year.



    Morse, as you say, is coming off injury, and he also makes 6 million this year. 

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I looked at Carp as being part of a platoon, with a decent RH bat. i was thinking Morse, who could maybe have come back from his injury last year and maybe even be worth a pick at the end of the year.



    Morse, as you say, is coming off injury, and he also makes 6 million this year. 

     



    $6 mil is a heck of a lot less than $16 mil. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    To me the bottom line is, Cherington seems to be taking the same patient, logical approach he did last year.  I think he's doing a nice job balancing short-term goals with long-term ones, and filling the spots.  I have a lot of confidence in him at this point.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think Fenway hurts a LF'ers UZR, because with the short wall, he will make less plays than LF'er is spacious parks.

    I'm not trying to say Nava is a plus defensive OF'er: he certainly is not, but I just don't think he is as bad as UZR/150 says it is.

    [/QUOTE]

    Fangraphs adjusted for that a couple of years ago. That was the case before that adjustment. They did it after Ellsbury's bad UZR year. I think they have factored the Fenway wall issue quite well now. Neither Gomes or Nava have been good outfielders in any park, ever defensively ( I haven't checked the data but I think that is probably the case ).

    You are right. Gomes career UZR/150 in LF is -11.6, but it was only -6.6 in Fenway.

    Carl Crawford had injury issues, but was + 23.5, +18.9 and +20.3 the 3 seasons before coming to Boston, then went -4.6 and -10.1 with Boston. (He was +14.2 with LAD.)

    Jason Bay was -7.6 career and +0.6 with Boston.

    DMac was +17.3 career and +20.1 with Boston.

     

    Nava has no record with another club.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Boom, no one can match your endurance, I'll give you that. Lots of dead horses in your wake, but no one can deny you your passion. Now I'm of the opinion that aside from the Ellsbury loss, that was not the least bit unexpected, Ben DID improve the team by doing little or nothing and allowing for our next round of players to take their place. I would much rather Bogey, Middlebrooks, Bradley in our lineup than older mercenaries like Choo or Drew. Just as I would like to see the same rotation that finished a championship campaign toe the rubber for next season without a Kuroda who faded badly last season when the games really started to count. Not to mention he would be much older than any of our other starters. When you have the best record in baseball, as unexpected as it was, and you win the World Series, you don't need a lot of improvement. Just follow the plan baby.



    +1 pure wisdom and I can't agree more.

    2013 was supposed to be a bridge to the kids. RS won the world series against most odds.

    Play JBJ, Middy, and Bogey for a season. Let them grow to be Pedroias and we are set for years to come. OK, Middy might not pan out, but we have others in the wings at 3rd and SS. Point is that we should have a mixture of home grown kids and FAs. We got the best farm system. Play them.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

     

     



    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

     

     




    I agree...That is small market thinking. The Sox can afford a guy like napoli who is a proven commedity and fits well on this team and in this city. With 2 young players on the left side we NEED a solid defender at 1b. That, and along with his RH bat, its a no brainer.

    We didnt lose a pick per say, but just didnt get an extra one by signing Naps. The security of knowing what you have already is worth the 16M.

    I was for getting hart for 1yr if naps didnt sign, but guys like Morales and Butler werent even a consideration for me at 1b as they are both basically DH's with good offense and bad D.



    No disrespect intended but the data indicates Hart is a lot worse defensively at 1st base. For his career there he is -13.2 and in Butler's worst full season year ever was not even a -6. Hart is projected to give up at least 7 more runs per year than Butler, who you do not even consider acceptable as a 1st base defender. It just doesn't compute.



    No worries, non taken.

    No offense, but you obviously rely way too much on defensive data IMHO. Everyone, including you and Moon said Drew was a bad defender last year.(since then Moon has adimttedly changed his mind on Drews defense) I told everyone to not rely on the defensive metrics because they are wrong. Drew was a lot better than the defensive metrics suggest. I was blasted pretty good with the same defensive data that Im seeing now. Drew turned out to be a very solid defender that saved us quite a few run runs, especially in the playoffs and WS.

    I like stats just like the next guy, but I take defensive metrics with a grain of salt as there are way too many variables when it comes to defense to fully rely on them without seeing a player play that position. I dont disregard them and understand how they work, but I rely more on what I see with my own eyes with defense than relying on the stats. My eyes were right about Drew and a few others, so I will stick with what works.

    I rely on offensive and pitching stats a lot more, and for obvious reasons. I understand how it all works, and I trust the offensive and pitching stats much much more than I ever will the defensive stats.

    With all that said, If I didnt get Naps at 1b, Hart is an obvious risk no matter what because of the knee issues. Hes played a little over 100 games at 1b and looked Ok for his 1st time. Not great, but showed some improvement in his short time there. I saw 1b as being better for his knees and I also figured he would improve some in 2014 if he played there FT after what I saw in 2012.

    I didnt want Nava or Carp there FT as I only saw them both as a PT option and I wanted a FT guy there. Same with Butler. Awful defense, but as a PT player there, I guess he would have been Ok in a pinch. Morse, same thing. So basically I didnt want any of those guys because all of them are below average or worse defensively at 1b and I see them all as PT players. Being a RHH was important to me as well as who I though would have the better D because of our young left side.

    Thats why it was always Naps, then Hart with me. Money wasnt the issue, nor was losing a comp pick...As long as I kept that 1st round pick I could handle losing one of the comp picks. Theres always another move that can be made, but since we had absolutely nothing in the system to take over 1b, unlike the other positions, a good solid FT 1b was a priority to me this year and in 2015. Im very satisfied with having Naps for 2 more years. Hes a perfect fit for this team. 

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    No offense, but you obviously rely way too much on defensive data IMHO. Everyone, including you and Moon said Drew was a bad defender last year.(since then Moon has adimttedly changed his mind on Drews defense) I told everyone to not rely on the defensive metrics because they are wrong. Drew was a lot better than the defensive metrics suggest. I was blasted pretty good with the same defensive data that Im seeing now. Drew turned out to be a very solid defender that saved us quite a few run runs, especially in the playoffs and WS.

    I see your point, but feel that UZR/150 does reflect pretty closely how good a fielder is. Drew started off as a shaky defender. He improved over the years, but then injuries took their toll. I think the metric was basically accurate in reflecting performance, but the problem was more about some of us using it as a predictor of things to come.

    The metric showed Drew had a very good 2013 season: was it wrong?

    UZR/150 is supposed to be used in very large sample sizes, perhaps 3 seasons for OF'ers and 2 seasons for IF'ers. By and large, the rankings are fairly accurate on who are the best at each position:

    IF 2012-2013 (1500+ innings)

    SS 

    1) Simmons +26.1

    2) Barmes   +12.5

    3) Pennington +11.1

    4) B Ryan         +10.4

    5) Peralta       +9.6

    6) Kozma       +9.5

    7) Hardy          +8.7

    8) Cozart       +8.5

    9) Y Escobar +8.4

    10) Crawford +7.0

    (Drew is placed 20th at -1.4, but he was much better in 2014.)

     

    2B

    1) Barney +16.3

    2) M Ellis  +12.6

    3) Pedey  +11.2

    4) Esinosa +10.5

    LeMahieu, Phillips, Zobrist, Utley, Infante, Ackely & Cano all above +6.0

     

    3B

    Uribe  +33.8

    Machado +27.9

    Valbuena +23.0

    Arenado +20.7

    Longoria +13.9

    Moustakas +12.4

    Wright +11.5

    Frazier +11.2

    Donaldson +11.0

    Headley +7.0

    20th Middlebrooks at -3.1

     

    1B

    AGon +12.4

    Trumbo +12.3

    Teixeira +11.9

    A Rizzo  +10.9

    Loney    +9.2

    Napoli   +8.7

    Moreland +8.7

    Votto, Pujols, B Belt, Overbay all above 3.9

     

    OF  2011-2013 and 1500+ innings

    LF

    Prado +12.8

    Gordon +10.4

    Murphy +9.4

    Soriano +8.5

    V Wells +8.3

    A Dirks +5.1

    C Craw  +2.1

     

    CF

    C Gomez +21.0

    Bourjos   +14.0

    Ellsbury   +13.5

    C Young   +11.0

    D Span    +10.5

    Torres  +7.9

    Trout    +7.3

    Bourn +6.0

    Maybin +4.6

     

    RF

    Reddick  +20.9

    Heyward +19.8

    Susuki    +8.5

    Swisher +5.7

    DeJesus +4.8

    Aoki         +4.2

    Hunter    +2.5

    A Rios    +2.4

    Ethier     +2.0

    Bruce     +1.7

    (if you lower the innings to 900+: Victorino +35.3 and G Parra +32.1)

     

    These are prtty decent lists of rankings that compare to offensive lists based on OPS or other metrics.

     

    I like stats just like the next guy, but I take defensive metrics with a grain of salt as there are way too many variables when it comes to defense to fully rely on them without seeing a player play that position. I dont disregard them and understand how they work, but I rely more on what I see with my own eyes with defense than relying on the stats. My eyes were right about Drew and a few others, so I will stick with what works.

    There are many variables with offensive stats as well:

    Home park size

    Divisional opponent's park sizes

    Strength of opponent's pitching

    Strength of opponent's fielding

    Facing more lefties or righties.

    Who bats in front of you and behind you in the line-up.

    Friendly home scorers

    Facing hot or cold pitchers

    and more

     

     

    I rely on offensive and pitching stats a lot more, and for obvious reasons. I understand how it all works, and I trust the offensive and pitching stats much much more than I ever will the defensive stats.

    UZR/150 may seem complicated, but it really is based on how many balls are hit into your zone and how many you field or don't field for an out, then compare it to the league average.

     

    With all that said, If I didnt get Naps at 1b, Hart is an obvious risk no matter what because of the knee issues. Hes played a little over 100 games at 1b and looked Ok for his 1st time. Not great, but showed some improvement in his short time there. I saw 1b as being better for his knees and I also figured he would improve some in 2014 if he played there FT after what I saw in 2012.

    Napoli looked great at 1B. Like he was a 10 year vet.

     

    I didnt want Nava or Carp there FT as I only saw them both as a PT option and I wanted a FT guy there. Same with Butler. Awful defense, but as a PT player there, I guess he would have been Ok in a pinch. Morse, same thing. So basically I didnt want any of those guys because all of them are below average or worse defensively at 1b and I see them all as PT players. Being a RHH was important to me as well as who I though would have the better D because of our young left side.

    Agreed,

     

    Thats why it was always Naps, then Hart with me. Money wasnt the issue, nor was losing a comp pick...As long as I kept that 1st round pick I could handle losing one of the comp picks. Theres always another move that can be made, but since we had absolutely nothing in the system to take over 1b, unlike the other positions, a good solid FT 1b was a priority to me this year and in 2015. Im very satisfied with having Naps for 2 more years. Hes a perfect fit for this team. 

    I'm happy with Napoli too, but I can see the value in keeping the pick and upgrading elsewhere. I wasn't so hot on a Carp/Nava 1b platoon, but Middy at 1B and Cecchini at 3B could have been something special.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    No offense, but you obviously rely way too much on defensive data IMHO. Everyone, including you and Moon said Drew was a bad defender last year.(since then Moon has adimttedly changed his mind on Drews defense) I told everyone to not rely on the defensive metrics because they are wrong. Drew was a lot better than the defensive metrics suggest. I was blasted pretty good with the same defensive data that Im seeing now. Drew turned out to be a very solid defender that saved us quite a few run runs, especially in the playoffs and WS.

    I see your point, but feel that UZR/150 does reflect pretty closely how good a fielder is. Drew started off as a shaky defender. He improved over the years, but then injuries took their toll. I think the metric was basically accurate in reflecting performance, but the problem was more about some of us using it as a predictor of things to come.

    The metric showed Drew had a very good 2013 season: was it wrong?

    UZR/150 is supposed to be used in very large sample sizes, perhaps 3 seasons for OF'ers and 2 seasons for IF'ers. By and large, the rankings are fairly accurate on who are the best at each position:

    IF 2012-2013 (1500+ innings)

    SS 

    1) Simmons +26.1

    2) Barmes   +12.5

    3) Pennington +11.1

    4) B Ryan         +10.4

    5) Peralta       +9.6

    6) Kozma       +9.5

    7) Hardy          +8.7

    8) Cozart       +8.5

    9) Y Escobar +8.4

    10) Crawford +7.0

    (Drew is placed 20th at -1.4, but he was much better in 2014.)

     

    2B

    1) Barney +16.3

    2) M Ellis  +12.6

    3) Pedey  +11.2

    4) Esinosa +10.5

    LeMahieu, Phillips, Zobrist, Utley, Infante, Ackely & Cano all above +6.0

     

    3B

    Uribe  +33.8

    Machado +27.9

    Valbuena +23.0

    Arenado +20.7

    Longoria +13.9

    Moustakas +12.4

    Wright +11.5

    Frazier +11.2

    Donaldson +11.0

    Headley +7.0

    20th Middlebrooks at -3.1

     

    1B

    AGon +12.4

    Trumbo +12.3

    Teixeira +11.9

    A Rizzo  +10.9

    Loney    +9.2

    Napoli   +8.7

    Moreland +8.7

    Votto, Pujols, B Belt, Overbay all above 3.9

     

    OF  2011-2013 and 1500+ innings

    LF

    Prado +12.8

    Gordon +10.4

    Murphy +9.4

    Soriano +8.5

    V Wells +8.3

    A Dirks +5.1

    C Craw  +2.1

     

    CF

    C Gomez +21.0

    Bourjos   +14.0

    Ellsbury   +13.5

    C Young   +11.0

    D Span    +10.5

    Torres  +7.9

    Trout    +7.3

    Bourn +6.0

    Maybin +4.6

     

    RF

    Reddick  +20.9

    Heyward +19.8

    Susuki    +8.5

    Swisher +5.7

    DeJesus +4.8

    Aoki         +4.2

    Hunter    +2.5

    A Rios    +2.4

    Ethier     +2.0

    Bruce     +1.7

    (if you lower the innings to 900+: Victorino +35.3 and G Parra +32.1)

     

    These are prtty decent lists of rankings that compare to offensive lists based on OPS or other metrics.

     

    I like stats just like the next guy, but I take defensive metrics with a grain of salt as there are way too many variables when it comes to defense to fully rely on them without seeing a player play that position. I dont disregard them and understand how they work, but I rely more on what I see with my own eyes with defense than relying on the stats. My eyes were right about Drew and a few others, so I will stick with what works.

    There are many variables with offensive stats as well:

    Home park size

    Divisional opponent's park sizes

    Strength of opponent's pitching

    Strength of opponent's fielding

    Facing more lefties or righties.

    Who bats in front of you and behind you in the line-up.

    Friendly home scorers

    Facing hot or cold pitchers

    and more

     

     

    I rely on offensive and pitching stats a lot more, and for obvious reasons. I understand how it all works, and I trust the offensive and pitching stats much much more than I ever will the defensive stats.

    UZR/150 may seem complicated, but it really is based on how many balls are hit into your zone and how many you field or don't field for an out, then compare it to the league average.

     

    With all that said, If I didnt get Naps at 1b, Hart is an obvious risk no matter what because of the knee issues. Hes played a little over 100 games at 1b and looked Ok for his 1st time. Not great, but showed some improvement in his short time there. I saw 1b as being better for his knees and I also figured he would improve some in 2014 if he played there FT after what I saw in 2012.

    Napoli looked great at 1B. Like he was a 10 year vet.

     

    I didnt want Nava or Carp there FT as I only saw them both as a PT option and I wanted a FT guy there. Same with Butler. Awful defense, but as a PT player there, I guess he would have been Ok in a pinch. Morse, same thing. So basically I didnt want any of those guys because all of them are below average or worse defensively at 1b and I see them all as PT players. Being a RHH was important to me as well as who I though would have the better D because of our young left side.

    Agreed,

     

    Thats why it was always Naps, then Hart with me. Money wasnt the issue, nor was losing a comp pick...As long as I kept that 1st round pick I could handle losing one of the comp picks. Theres always another move that can be made, but since we had absolutely nothing in the system to take over 1b, unlike the other positions, a good solid FT 1b was a priority to me this year and in 2015. Im very satisfied with having Naps for 2 more years. Hes a perfect fit for this team. 

    I'm happy with Napoli too, but I can see the value in keeping the pick and upgrading elsewhere. I wasn't so hot on a Carp/Nava 1b platoon, but Middy at 1B and Cecchini at 3B could have been something special.

     




    While I respect the work you have done on defensive metrics, and as Ive said, I dont disregard them completely...I have just seen way too much with my own eyes that tell me something different when it comes to defense. I agree that there are variables with offense and pitching, but not nearly as much as defense.

    Thats just me and will always be me Moon. I will never rely on defensive metrics if I havent seen the player play. I can rely more on offensive ones for obvious reasons.

    Overall, Ben made the right move in locking up Naps for 2 years while we figure something else out for 2016.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    While I respect the work you have done on defensive metrics, and as Ive said, I dont disregard them completely...I have just seen way too much with my own eyes that tell me something different when it comes to defense. I agree that there are variables with offense and pitching, but not nearly as much as defense.

    Thats just me and will always be me Moon. I will never rely on defensive metrics if I havent seen the player play. I can rely more on offensive ones for obvious reasons.

    Overall, Ben made the right move in locking up Naps for 2 years while we figure something else out for 2016.

    I don't rely on just defensive metrics either, but I challenge you to compare the top 10 hitters based on OPS or whatever offensive stat you choose and see if you agree with the rankings as much as you agree with the defensive rankings I just posted. There are probably close to the same amount of adjustments neede to be made to both. Same with pitching stats or metrics. There's always going to be someone left off the top list that belongs and someone there that probably doesn't belong.

    The problem with judging fielders is that most of us do not watch every single game of every single team every single year. It's impossible. Most of us watch most Sox games and get to compare our players vs the few fielders we watch playing against us. We may watch a few other games here or there, so our "frame of reference" is extremely limited in terms of any comparative analysis. To me, that is what it is all about. 

    One may watch a fielder and say, "wow, he's really good" and he may very well be, but then to go on and say he is one of the best fielders in the league, or above average, or whatever is taking a step very few of can justifiably make based on pure observations and nothing else.  To make comparative definitive judgements, we have to rely on stats, data, or metrics. 

    True enough, fielding metrics are harder to understand and may be more influenced by variables, but they do have a purpose and a value.

    On SS defense in 2013, only 4 MLb SSs had more innings at SS and a higher UZR/150 than Drew: Simmons, the two Escobars and Cozart. I'd say that was just about right.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Let's say we trade Dempster, sign Drew ($25M/2?), and stay under the luxury limit. We could keep Middlebrooks rather than trade him a "lower value point" and start him in AAA, or trade Carp and let Middy ride the bench. He could probably get 350-450 PAs by resting players often, and he could be part of 4 positional back-up choices:

    3B: Bogaerts

    SS: Drew (Bogaerts could play SS vs maybe half the LH'd starters)

    1B: Napoli (assuming Carp is traded)

    DH: Ortiz (Napoli could rest some at DH vs some LH'd starters)

     

    So, Bogey gets 100 PAs at SS and rests another 100. That's 200 for Middy.

    Napoli and Papi both rest 75 PAs over the season. That's 150 total there.

    There's 350 for Middy with no injuries. Is that enough for him to grow?

     

    Maybe we can trade Demspter & Carp for something useful.

    Maybe we can trade Demspter and Middy for soemthing even better.

    Cecchini may be ready by May or June.

     

    Lots of choices here, if we sign Drew.

     

    I still see it this way, if we sign Drew, we lose a draft choice in the 25 to 32 pick range. That's like a number 1 choice with a value maybe somewhere between $5-10M. Could be more- could be less. So, if we sign him to $25M/2, it really costs us about $30-35M/2. I would say no, but having him on the roster instead of Dempster makes us better in 2014.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

     

     



    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

     

     

     




    I agree...That is small market thinking. The Sox can afford a guy like napoli who is a proven commedity and fits well on this team and in this city. With 2 young players on the left side we NEED a solid defender at 1b. That, and along with his RH bat, its a no brainer.

     

    We didnt lose a pick per say, but just didnt get an extra one by signing Naps. The security of knowing what you have already is worth the 16M.

    I was for getting hart for 1yr if naps didnt sign, but guys like Morales and Butler werent even a consideration for me at 1b as they are both basically DH's with good offense and bad D.



    No disrespect intended but the data indicates Hart is a lot worse defensively at 1st base. For his career there he is -13.2 and in Butler's worst full season year ever was not even a -6. Hart is projected to give up at least 7 more runs per year than Butler, who you do not even consider acceptable as a 1st base defender. It just doesn't compute.



    No worries, non taken.

    No offense, but you obviously rely way too much on defensive data IMHO. Everyone, including you and Moon said Drew was a bad defender last year.(since then Moon has adimttedly changed his mind on Drews defense) I told everyone to not rely on the defensive metrics because they are wrong. Drew was a lot better than the defensive metrics suggest. I was blasted pretty good with the same defensive data that Im seeing now. Drew turned out to be a very solid defender that saved us quite a few run runs, especially in the playoffs and WS.

    I like stats just like the next guy, but I take defensive metrics with a grain of salt as there are way too many variables when it comes to defense to fully rely on them without seeing a player play that position. I dont disregard them and understand how they work, but I rely more on what I see with my own eyes with defense than relying on the stats. My eyes were right about Drew and a few others, so I will stick with what works.

    I rely on offensive and pitching stats a lot more, and for obvious reasons. I understand how it all works, and I trust the offensive and pitching stats much much more than I ever will the defensive stats.

    With all that said, If I didnt get Naps at 1b, Hart is an obvious risk no matter what because of the knee issues. Hes played a little over 100 games at 1b and looked Ok for his 1st time. Not great, but showed some improvement in his short time there. I saw 1b as being better for his knees and I also figured he would improve some in 2014 if he played there FT after what I saw in 2012.

    I didnt want Nava or Carp there FT as I only saw them both as a PT option and I wanted a FT guy there. Same with Butler. Awful defense, but as a PT player there, I guess he would have been Ok in a pinch. Morse, same thing. So basically I didnt want any of those guys because all of them are below average or worse defensively at 1b and I see them all as PT players. Being a RHH was important to me as well as who I though would have the better D because of our young left side.

    Thats why it was always Naps, then Hart with me. Money wasnt the issue, nor was losing a comp pick...As long as I kept that 1st round pick I could handle losing one of the comp picks. Theres always another move that can be made, but since we had absolutely nothing in the system to take over 1b, unlike the other positions, a good solid FT 1b was a priority to me this year and in 2015. Im very satisfied with having Naps for 2 more years. Hes a perfect fit for this team. 

     



    I don't remember ever saying that Drew was bad defensively. I have never thought of him that way. To me he is pretty solid defensively but maybe not great in terms of range. For his career he is a -3.3 UZR/150 over a significant sample size but at least he is trending up. I don't think he is GREAT defensively. He's a solid, overall SS. Above league average overall.

    But I would take that pick in a heartbeat over paying him anywhere near what he is going to get.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    But I would take that pick in a heartbeat over paying him anywhere near what he is going to get.

    I've been lower on Middy than most here, but here's how I see it:

    If we sign Drew, it's Drew instead of Middy on offense and Drew instead of Bogey on SS Defense and Bogey instead of Middy on 3B defense.

    Drew vs Middy on offense: Close to even

    Drew vs Bogey at SS D: advantage Drew

    Bogey vs Middy at 3B D: advantage Middy (at least for 2014).

    I don't see the gain as worth the financial cost or the lost draft choice (probably between #25 and 30). Adding the two together and the gain is just not worth it in  my opinion.

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    13 qualifying offers declined.

    8 have signed:

    4 Yankees: Ellsbury, McCann, & Beltran (Lost 1st round, lost comp pick gained for losing Grandy, & lost 2nd round pick, and Kuroda (lost comp pick they could have gained had they not signed him)

    1 Rangers: Choo (lost 1st round pick)

    1 Red Sox: Napoli (lost comp pick they could have gained had they not signed him)

    1 Mets: Granderson (lost 2nd round pick as 1st round protected)

    1 Mariners: Cano (lost 2nd round pick as 1st round proected)

    5 are unsigned:

    Nelson Cruz (SEA? TEX?)

    Stephen Drew (BOS? NYY? NYM?)

    Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE? BAL?)

    Kendrys Morales (PIT? SEA?)

    Ervin Santana (Detroit? AZ?)

     

    At best we move up 5 picks, at worst our 2nd and/or 3rd and later round picks move up a notch.

    I'm not sure how MLB decides who gets the first sandwich comp pick, but as of right now, 2 first rounders have been lost (NYY & TEX), and 4 teams still have comp picks (CIN, ATL, STL, BOS), so we are currently at this...

    1st round: #28

    Ellsbury comp pick: #29 to #32

    Possible Drew comp pick: #29 to #37

    If all 5 remaining free agents sign with different teams that do not have protected picks, and who have not already lost their 1st round pick, the best we could see is:

    1st round: #23

    Ellsbury comp pick: #24 to #33

    Drew comp pick: #24 to #33

    3 picks from 23-33 is pretty nice. 3 picks from 28-37 is not bad either.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    But I would take that pick in a heartbeat over paying him anywhere near what he is going to get.

    I've been lower on Middy than most here, but here's how I see it:

    If we sign Drew, it's Drew instead of Middy on offense and Drew instead of Bogey on SS Defense and Bogey instead of Middy on 3B defense.

    Drew vs Middy on offense: Close to even

    Drew vs Bogey at SS D: advantage Drew

    Bogey vs Middy at 3B D: advantage Middy (at least for 2014).

    I don't see the gain as worth the financial cost or the lost draft choice (probably between #25 and 30). Adding the two together and the gain is just not worth it in  my opinion.

     

     



    I'm amazed at how many people are even considering bringing Drew back. I wouldn't bring him back at any realistic price. That pick is important.

    What I see happening is incredible restraint in spending money going forward. The Redsox do not want to pay the market rate for top players (not saying Drew is a top player ). They are not really trying to win every year. They are holding onto those picks for dear life and their top prospects as well. If it means they don't win then so be it. 

    That approach probably gives us a better chance long term of competing than only signing top FA and trading off prospects to win now. But I would like to see more of a win now mentality. The window of opportunity may be closing as we speak.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Having 3 top picks in next year's draft is huge. Hopefully we can get another one in a year from Peavy. Maybe even Lester? Will they stay with this approach then?

    I also question defensive metrics but not all that much more than offensive metrics. You need 3 years of data to really make a decent evaluation of either. A Will Middlebrooks could become a guy who is on the fringe forever or (more likely to me ) he restores most of the value he showed during his first year. Look at Victorino for example. Many thought his value was pretty much done and then last year he was worth almost as much as Ellsbury.  That was a heck of a sign and one I definitely was wondering about. But again, we need more than 1 year's data for most of these guys. Is Napoli the .320 hitting monster he was a few years ago or the .230 hitter Texas passed on a year later?

    We will see won't we.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Napoli is fine under a short-term deal... the mistake or the lack of options that will hurt us is not adding a real power threat. Napoli really offers no protection to Ortiz... though I suppose Carp is a real masher and would cause pitchers to pause in pitching around Ortiz?

    lol. Not.

     

    Anyhow we need a real 30+ homer threat batting clean-up or third.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I'm amazed at how many people are even considering bringing Drew back. I wouldn't bring him back at any realistic price. That pick is important.

    What I see happening is incredible restraint in spending money going forward. The Redsox do not want to pay the market rate for top players (not saying Drew is a top player ). They are not really trying to win every year. They are holding onto those picks for dear life and their top prospects as well. If it means they don't win then so be it. 

    That approach probably gives us a better chance long term of competing than only signing top FA and trading off prospects to win now. But I would like to see more of a win now mentality. The window of opportunity may be closing as we speak.



    I think what the Red Sox are doing is trying to strike a balance between now and later.

    The reason some of us want Drew back is not complicated.  It's simply because they think Drew and Bogaerts on the left side is better than Bogaerts and WMB.  Drew was a better player than WMB last year, plain and simple.  WMB was grabbing pine in the postseason.

    You say the pick is important.  I say it might be important, to the 2015 or 2016 or 2017 Red Sox.  

    It's just a philosophical difference, really.  I understand where you and Moon are coming from about the draft pick.

    All that really matters is what Cherington thinks, of course.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'm amazed at how many people are even considering bringing Drew back. I wouldn't bring him back at any realistic price. That pick is important.

    What I see happening is incredible restraint in spending money going forward. The Redsox do not want to pay the market rate for top players (not saying Drew is a top player ). They are not really trying to win every year. They are holding onto those picks for dear life and their top prospects as well. If it means they don't win then so be it. 

    That approach probably gives us a better chance long term of competing than only signing top FA and trading off prospects to win now. But I would like to see more of a win now mentality. The window of opportunity may be closing as we speak.

    I agree, and since this is a strong and deep draft, now is the time to make a big investment in our longterm future.

    I said from the start: Napoli or Drew but not both.

    Trying to see things from the other side, I can see that having Drew instead of Dempster makes some sense, and then if you get something decent for Dempster & Carp or Dempster & Middy, then that may make up for the lost draft pick to some extent.

    I hope we get 3 top picks next spring.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think what the Red Sox are doing is trying to strike a balance between now and later.

    The reason some of us want Drew back is not complicated.  It's simply because they think Drew and Bogaerts on the left side is better than Bogaerts and WMB.  Drew was a better player than WMB last year, plain and simple.  WMB was grabbing pine in the postseason.

    You say the pick is important.  I say it might be important, to the 2015 or 2016 or 2017 Red Sox.  

    It's just a philosophical difference, really.  I understand where you and Moon are coming from about the draft pick.

    All that really matters is what Cherington thinks, of course.

     

    If Middlebrooks struggles, and we just miss winning a ring, it could be easy to blame not winning on signing Drew vs a sandwich draft pick.

    Then, there's always the chance that Drew does not do well, gets hurt, or trading Dempster backfires as a SP gets hurt and he has a better year.

    It's not a slam dunk choice, but I like the draft choice and giving Bogey and Middy a shot. The one thing I also think is a factor is Cecchini. If Middy struggles, we might have a gold mine in Garin. If we signed Drew, we might not have found out soon enough.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think what the Red Sox are doing is trying to strike a balance between now and later.

    The reason some of us want Drew back is not complicated.  It's simply because they think Drew and Bogaerts on the left side is better than Bogaerts and WMB.  Drew was a better player than WMB last year, plain and simple.  WMB was grabbing pine in the postseason.

    You say the pick is important.  I say it might be important, to the 2015 or 2016 or 2017 Red Sox.  

    It's just a philosophical difference, really.  I understand where you and Moon are coming from about the draft pick.

    All that really matters is what Cherington thinks, of course.

     

    If Middlebrooks struggles, and we just miss winning a ring, it could be easy to blame not winning on signing Drew vs a sandwich draft pick.

    Then, there's always the chance that Drew does not do well, gets hurt, or trading Dempster backfires as a SP gets hurt and he has a better year.

    It's not a slam dunk choice, but I like the draft choice and giving Bogey and Middy a shot. The one thing I also think is a factor is Cecchini. If Middy struggles, we might have a gold mine in Garin. If we signed Drew, we might not have found out soon enough.




    Absolutely..  Give the kids a shot...

    I have a gut feeling that Middy will bounce back.  When this happens, his value will elevate for trade purposes and Cecchini will be ready to slip into the slot.

    On a different topic, did I not read a few years back(I think it was Atlanta's GM at the time) stating that he refused to deal anymore with Boras.  Maybe he was blowing smoke.  I don't know, but I'd swear to have remembered reading it.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Absolutely..  Give the kids a shot...

    I have a gut feeling that Middy will bounce back.  When this happens, his value will elevate for trade purposes and Cecchini will be ready to slip into the slot.

     

    Before the winter started, I really did not think we'd go with 3 kids at the same time. For a championship team still maxed out at the luxury limit level, I think it's a pretty risky move.

    The fact that we don't really have a solid veteran back-up at any of the 3 positions is even more amazing to me.

    Like I said, I'm happy where we are right now, and I'm glad we are not sacrificing our future to stack this year's team.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Napoli = $16 mil

    Carp = $2-3 mil

    HMMM

     

     



    You said you wanted to win now. 

     

     

     

     




    I agree...That is small market thinking. The Sox can afford a guy like napoli who is a proven commedity and fits well on this team and in this city. With 2 young players on the left side we NEED a solid defender at 1b. That, and along with his RH bat, its a no brainer.

     

    We didnt lose a pick per say, but just didnt get an extra one by signing Naps. The security of knowing what you have already is worth the 16M.

    I was for getting hart for 1yr if naps didnt sign, but guys like Morales and Butler werent even a consideration for me at 1b as they are both basically DH's with good offense and bad D.



    No disrespect intended but the data indicates Hart is a lot worse defensively at 1st base. For his career there he is -13.2 and in Butler's worst full season year ever was not even a -6. Hart is projected to give up at least 7 more runs per year than Butler, who you do not even consider acceptable as a 1st base defender. It just doesn't compute.



    No worries, non taken.

    No offense, but you obviously rely way too much on defensive data IMHO. Everyone, including you and Moon said Drew was a bad defender last year.(since then Moon has adimttedly changed his mind on Drews defense) I told everyone to not rely on the defensive metrics because they are wrong. Drew was a lot better than the defensive metrics suggest. I was blasted pretty good with the same defensive data that Im seeing now. Drew turned out to be a very solid defender that saved us quite a few run runs, especially in the playoffs and WS.

    I like stats just like the next guy, but I take defensive metrics with a grain of salt as there are way too many variables when it comes to defense to fully rely on them without seeing a player play that position. I dont disregard them and understand how they work, but I rely more on what I see with my own eyes with defense than relying on the stats. My eyes were right about Drew and a few others, so I will stick with what works.

    I rely on offensive and pitching stats a lot more, and for obvious reasons. I understand how it all works, and I trust the offensive and pitching stats much much more than I ever will the defensive stats.

    With all that said, If I didnt get Naps at 1b, Hart is an obvious risk no matter what because of the knee issues. Hes played a little over 100 games at 1b and looked Ok for his 1st time. Not great, but showed some improvement in his short time there. I saw 1b as being better for his knees and I also figured he would improve some in 2014 if he played there FT after what I saw in 2012.

    I didnt want Nava or Carp there FT as I only saw them both as a PT option and I wanted a FT guy there. Same with Butler. Awful defense, but as a PT player there, I guess he would have been Ok in a pinch. Morse, same thing. So basically I didnt want any of those guys because all of them are below average or worse defensively at 1b and I see them all as PT players. Being a RHH was important to me as well as who I though would have the better D because of our young left side.

    Thats why it was always Naps, then Hart with me. Money wasnt the issue, nor was losing a comp pick...As long as I kept that 1st round pick I could handle losing one of the comp picks. Theres always another move that can be made, but since we had absolutely nothing in the system to take over 1b, unlike the other positions, a good solid FT 1b was a priority to me this year and in 2015. Im very satisfied with having Naps for 2 more years. Hes a perfect fit for this team. 

     



    I don't remember ever saying that Drew was bad defensively. I have never thought of him that way. To me he is pretty solid defensively but maybe not great in terms of range. For his career he is a -3.3 UZR/150 over a significant sample size but at least he is trending up. I don't think he is GREAT defensively. He's a solid, overall SS. Above league average overall.

    But I would take that pick in a heartbeat over paying him anywhere near what he is going to get.




    My bad if you didnt say that Boom. I thought I remembered you and Moon discussing it at one point. Maybe not.

    We interviewed Drew in 2009 and then Matt Williams in 2010. The interview with Drew made me a fan, and honestly, I started watching almost every DBacks game. DVR is a great invention. Matt Williams said that Drew was sabermatricians nightmare on defense because that stats say hes not that good, when in fact he was always a very good/great defender. Now, Im sure some of that was being his coach, but watching him as much as I did made me start to question the defensive metricstoo. At least with offense you can go to another 2 or 3 stats to verify something. Not so much with defense. Its just much more subjective and the other variables play into the numbers more than offense or pitching. Just my Opinions.

    I do take all stats into consideration, but I will always question the defensive ones until I see a player play enough. I know, Im just a bit stubborn as I get older (44yo), but i think I have good reason.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    On a different topic, did I not read a few years back(I think it was Atlanta's GM at the time) stating that he refused to deal anymore with Boras.  Maybe he was blowing smoke.  I don't know, but I'd swear to have remembered reading it.

    According to the MLB Trade Rumors database, the Atlanta Braves last signed clients of the Boras Corporation in early 2009 with Garrett Anderson and Derek Lowe:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/transactiontracker

    More on the Braves and Scott Boras:

    http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2010/07/28/hanson-discusses-signing-with-agent-scott-boras/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    On a different topic, did I not read a few years back(I think it was Atlanta's GM at the time) stating that he refused to deal anymore with Boras.  Maybe he was blowing smoke.  I don't know, but I'd swear to have remembered reading it.



    Chicago White Sox fomer GM (now VP) did say he would never deal with Scott Boras

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The Sox are kind of locked into dealing with BorA$$ for many years to come.

     
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