Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I
posted at 1/2/2014 4:00 PM EST
In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
I don't think I was far off with Ellsbury this year. He did have a solid year even through some significant injuries. Led the league in steals at a high percentage and was real solid overall. He didn't replicate 2011 but it might have been his 2nd best year. I thought he would be good and he was good.
I thought you projected a better OBP and power. My bad.
I was down on Salty, and it looks like every GM in baseball was also with the possible exception of the one in Miami. He wasn't worth a QO. He wasn't worth a 30 mil contract. I was more right on Salty than you, Southpa...etc. Just saying. He was the guy benched in the WS for making dumbell decisions. He did not get the big contract. The Redsox did not bring him back.
I was talking about his fine 2013 season. I thought you were talking about his 2013 performance when you said this..."I think I was right about Salty, Lackey, Ellsbury, the pen etc...but no one remembers such things so who cares. ". Last winter, I expected further improvement from Salty and suggested we either extend him or trade him rather than lose him after 2013 with nothing in return. I'm not sure how that is "more wrong" than your position.
I never thought we'd resign him this winter. I clearly stated that the Sox showed a lack of confidence in Salty by benching him the final 3 games of the WS for a guy like Ross.
I had hoped we'd sign him, and mentioned we could trade him later, if a kid proved himself ready, but I never expected it to happen.
I have no problem admitting I'm wrong and do it t his 2013regularly. As with Ortiz and Middlebrooks last year. But I don't think I was far off at all with Ellsbury and I never said Reddick was going to be an all star. He's doing about as well as expected overall. Good power, solid defense. poor OBP and plate discipline. I thought he was more a keeper than Kalish and that sure turned out to be right.
You were very high on Reddick. Yes, you mentioned that just his defense was enough to make him a valuable starter, but I am pretty certain you expected much better offense from him than what he has done since his great half year start with the A's. I am afraid Middy might go the same route as Reddick, but without the spectacular defense to keep his value on the plus side.
To be completely honest, I have been right a lot, but it is clear as a bell that it doesn't get noticed so who cares any more. So be it.
Boom, I have given you many props on being right this year... all through the year. I have also admitted to being wrong a lot this year, and I recognize you are one of the few to admit your mistakes as well. I appreciate that.
Like I said, I hope you are right about Middy. I hope he returns to something like his first 40 MLB games, but I am more worried about his last 88 MLB games. I know injuries were part of the decline, but these numbers do not lie:
In the 88 games since June 24, 2012, Middlebrooks has hit .210 with a .246 OBP and he was slugging .299 with 15 homers, 46 RBI and 93 whiffs. Yes, that is still close to 30 HR power over 160 games, but that does not even come close to making up for a .545 OPS and iffy defense.