A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Ranaudo was not even a top 10 redsox prospect according to Baseball Prospectus the other day. Wow. A lot of analysts are not convinced. And it appears he will always be an injury risk. That guy needs to take it very seriously right now and get on that arm program they have this winter. Maybe go to the API in Arizona for conditioning. His window of opportunity is now. If he pulls it off he icould be looking at a $100 mil career salary or he could be effectively washed out with in 3-4 years. He can't live on his college success. He needs to evolve and stay strong. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I wouldn't even be surprised if they trade Ranaudo. Some of those guys are worth a lot. We probably will trade one or 2 of them at some point just due to roster considerations and their value. If 1 or 2 guys emerge especially then someone will be considered expendable.

    I don't remember any team having such strong starting pitching prospects going into AAA ball in one year. How is this for a potential AAA rotation:

    1) Webster

    2) Barnes

    3) Ranaudo

    4) Workman

    5) RDLR

    6) Wright

    7) Britton

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    That's 5 guys who could maybe start on a lot of mlb teams right now (maybe even 7 ).

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Ranaudo was not even a top 10 redsox prospect according to Baseball Prospectus the other day. Wow. A lot of analysts are not convinced. And it appears he will always be an injury risk. That guy needs to take it very seriously right now and get on that arm program they have this winter. Maybe go to the API in Arizona for conditioning. His window of opportunity is now. If he pulls it off he icould be looking at a $100 mil career salary or he could be effectively washed out with in 3-4 years. He can't live on his college success. He needs to evolve and stay strong. 



    Ranaudo is 24. I get what you are saying about him coming to the moment of truth.

    I'm not sure where Ranaudo would place on Baseball Prospectus' list, but my guess is he'd be near #11.

    soxprospects.com has done a pretty good job ranking our prospects over many years, and they have our pitchers ranked like this:

    3) Owens

    6) Barnes

    7) Ranaudo

    8) Webster

    9) Workman

    11) T Ball

    12) Britton

    15) Stankiewicz

    18) Johnson

    22) Callahan

    23) Mercedes

    24) Buttrey

    26) L Diaz

    27) Hinojosa

    29) Wilson

    30) Ramirez

    31) Kukuk

    33) Smith

    34) Littrell

    37) Gomez

    38) McGrath

    41) Wright

    43) Couch

    44) Price

    45) Quevedo

    46) Martin

    47) Light

    48) Gunkel

    49) Pena

    50) Celesino

    (They don't consider de la Rosa a prospect, but he was ranked #7 behind Ranaudo, Barnes and Webster last June.)

    Baseball America:

    2) Owens

    4) Webster

    8) Workman

    9) Barnes

    10) Ball

    Bleacher Report:

    2) Owens

    6) Webster

    8) Workman

    9) Barnes

    10) Ball

    SB Nation:

    4) Owens

    5) Ranaudo

    8) Webster

    9) Workman

    10) Barnes

    11) Ball

    12) Britton

    13) Mercedes

    17) Stankiewicz

    18) Callahan

    19) Johnson

    20) Buttrey

    C+ D McGrath

    ESPN:

    4) Owens

    5) Barnes

    6) Ranaudo

    7) Webster

    9) Ball

    Rant Sports:

    3) Webster

    4) Owens

    5) Barnes

    6) Ranaudo

    8) Ball

     

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    That's 5 guys who could maybe start on a lot of mlb teams right now (maybe even 7 ).

    1) Webster

    2) Barnes

    3) Ranaudo

    4) Workman

    5) RDLR

    6) Wright

    7) Britton

     

    Maybe 8 or more...

    Hinojosa

    Ely & Layne (not really prospects)

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    And that is just starter depth after:

     

    Lackey

    Lester

    Buchholz

    Doubront

    Peavy

    Dempster

     

    I'm convinced one of these guys gets traded.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Could also see a scenario where RS go to camp w/ Dempster as long man / blow up game reliever. Lets face it w/ all the young pitchers you named only Workman and Webster are probably the only ones that could go to rotation to start the season if a couple of starters went down in ST. The rest still need developemental time before being ready. With 2 starters in the rotation already that are made of glass and could break down at any time [Buch / Peavey] think might see a trade in season or ST depending on how everyone shows up [Doubie you listening?] and how young pitching is doing down below. Can't just make a trade because you have too many guys, takes two to tango. Teams will have pitchers go down or young pitchers they penciled in not perform, thats when RS might get something attractive for one of their surplus starters.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    test

    (EDIT: Woohoo...haven't been able to post in a while. Apologies for the random bump.)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    And that is just starter depth after:

     

    Lackey

    Lester

    Buchholz

    Doubront

    Peavy

    Dempster

     

    I'm convinced one of these guys gets traded.



    Agreed.

    The FA SP market has to settle first.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Agreed Moon that many folks appear to be waiting on Tanaka then the other dominoes will start falling into place. I think it was Lohse who had a very solid 2012 but waited until the very last minute to sign with someone last year. All that means is that with our starting pitching depth we are able to be very patient, maybe even wait until near the end of ST, to deal off one of our bottom two veteran starters and get the best possible return while freeing up payroll flexibility.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Agreed Moon that many folks appear to be waiting on Tanaka then the other dominoes will start falling into place. I think it was Lohse who had a very solid 2012 but waited until the very last minute to sign with someone last year. All that means is that with our starting pitching depth we are able to be very patient, maybe even wait until near the end of ST, to deal off one of our bottom two veteran starters and get the best possible return while freeing up paroll flexibility.




    Once we see how much these last pitchers get paid, Dempster & Peavy's deals may look like steals.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Agreed Moon that many folks appear to be waiting on Tanaka then the other dominoes will start falling into place. I think it was Lohse who had a very solid 2012 but waited until the very last minute to sign with someone last year. All that means is that with our starting pitching depth we are able to be very patient, maybe even wait until near the end of ST, to deal off one of our bottom two veteran starters and get the best possible return while freeing up paroll flexibility.




    Just don't see it. While teams are always looking for pitchers can't see a team giving up anything worthwhile for either of the [2] high priced / late in careers [possibly last seasons of careers] / 1 yr left on contract at this point. RS should just hold til a team in season that is in position to make playoffs or possibly go even farther suffers an injury [similar to RS last season acquiring Peavy]. If your going to do just to dump salary, foolish move. RS can afford a luxury tax hit this yr [made a ton of $ last yr] after resetting their tax threshold last year and have a ton of $ off books for next yr. So if a RS find themselves in a position to acquire a player in season because of need, just do it. Its not like they're being taxed at the 50% tax threshold. Right now those 2 players are worth more on the team than what they will get back, with pitchers like Buch and Peavy in rotation. Just look at last yr, we had guys like Aceves / Wright / Webster / Workman all making starts. So guys like Webster / Workman / Raunado and possibly a Barnes I'm sure will all get their chances this yr w/ the Peavy's /Lackey"s/Dempster's / Lester's all a yr older coming off a very long season that I'm sure took a toll. But agree this is the season for another young guy to become a regular member of rotation [Webster / Workman] or whoever. But unless Tanaka tells the RS he wants to play here and will do so for less, hold onto to the starters, these things always have a way of working themselves out.

     

    Once we see how much these last pitchers get paid, Dempster & Peavy's deals may look like steals.




     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If we go over the cap, we lose roughly $25 mil in revenue sharing dollars. The "luxury tax" isn't the issue as much as the lost revenue sharing dollars. And they will want to stay under the cap next year as well for the same reason. By 2016 that will no longer be that important because Boston will not be eligible for revenue sharing no matter what they spend. 

    So what does this mean for us now and then? To me, they need to look ahead to see what is available and at what cost in the future. And they probably want to stay under the cap this year and next. They can spend for contracts in 2016, but probably want to stay under the cap now.

    Ergo, if they do sign a Tanaka or Drew etc..they will probably chose to cut salary somewhere else. And although I could see a deal for Tanaka being in their long term interest, it could only come if they trade a Peavy or Dempster, possibly even both. But Tanaka will cost so much that probably doesn't happen. And I don't see any reason to go over the cap to get Drew or even letting go of our starting pitcher depth to get Drew.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    If we go over the cap, we lose roughly $25 mil in revenue sharing dollars. The "luxury tax" isn't the issue as much as the lost revenue sharing dollars. And they will want to stay under the cap next year as well for the same reason. By 2016 that will no longer be that important because Boston will not be eligible for revenue sharing no matter what they spend. 

    So what does this mean for us now and then? To me, they need to look ahead to see what is available and at what cost in the future. And they probably want to stay under the cap this year and next. They can spend for contracts in 2016, but probably want to stay under the cap now.

    Ergo, if they do sign a Tanaka or Drew etc..they will probably chose to cut salary somewhere else. And although I could see a deal for Tanaka being in their long term interest, it could only come if they trade a Peavy or Dempster, possibly even both. But Tanaka will cost so much that probably doesn't happen. And I don't see any reason to go over the cap to get Drew or even letting go of our starting pitcher depth to get Drew.



    Eaxactly, and we could probably afford Tanaka, if we traded Peavy and Dempster.

    We might be able to sign Drew and Tanaka, if we traded Peavy, Dempster, and Gomes (maybe Ross too).

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The Dodgers extending Kershaw opens up the Tanaka option for us a little. We went from a 5% likelihood to maybe 10% likely.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I wouldn't even be surprised if they trade Ranaudo. Some of those guys are worth a lot. We probably will trade one or 2 of them at some point just due to roster considerations and their value. If 1 or 2 guys emerge especially then someone will be considered expendable.

    I don't remember any team having such strong starting pitching prospects going into AAA ball in one year. How is this for a potential AAA rotation:

    1) Webster

    2) Barnes

    3) Ranaudo

    4) Workman

    5) RDLR

    6) Wright

    7) Britton

     

    That's a nice minor league pitching staff, but ...

    The Jackson Generals of the Double A Southern League went into the 2012 season with a rotation that included Brandon Maurer, Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton.

    Maurer was named* the Southern League's top pitcher that year before opening the 2013 season in the Seattle rotation. Entering the 2012 season Baseball America ranked Walker No. 20, Hultzen No. 21 and Paxton No. 52 on its Top 100 prospect list.

    Baseball America named the Jackson Generals the most talented minor league team on Opening Day 2012:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-10-minor-league-teams-on-opening-day/

    * http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120904&content_id=37859160&vkey=news_l111&fext=.jsp&sid=l111

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    The Dodgers extending Kershaw opens up the Tanaka option for us a little. We went from a 5% likelihood to maybe 10% likely.



    I wonder how the Kershaw extension will effect the Lester negotiations.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 14m

    #RedSox announce they’ve signed RHP Burke Badenhop to one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.

     
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to J-BAY's comment:

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 14m

    #RedSox announce they’ve signed RHP Burke Badenhop to one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.

     



    How much?

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Lot's of talk on other threads about getting an OF'er or leftside IF help to cover for JBJ...

    I'm not saying I am for trading Dempster ($13.25M) or Peavy ($14.5M) for a salary dump like I have listed here, but here are some players that may end up on the market (or already are):

    NYY: Soriano ($19M with $14M paid by the Cubs) or Suzuki ($6.5M)

    CWS: A Ramirez SS ($19.5M/2 + $10M club option with $1M buyout)

    CIN: Jay Bruce ($34.5M/3 + $13M club option with $1M option)

    MIL: Ar Ramirez 3B ($16M/1 + $15M mutual option with $4M buyout) or Braun ($132M/7 + $15M mutual option with $4M buyout) or Gallardo ($11.25M + $13M club option)

    WSH: Werth ($83M/4)

    COL: Tulo ($130/7 + $15M club option with $4M buyout) or C Gonzo ($63.5M/4) or ($Cuddyer ($10.5M/1)

    SFG: A Pagan ($28M/3) or Sandoval ($8.25M/1)

    LAD: Kemp ($128M/6) or Ethier ($71.5M/4 + $17.5M club option with $2/5M B/O)

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    The Dodgers extending Kershaw opens up the Tanaka option for us a little. We went from a 5% likelihood to maybe 10% likely.



    I wonder how the Kershaw extension will effect the Lester negotiations.



    I guess that brings up the question: what is Lester worth? The Sox are probably not going to do a deal more than five years. I doubt they will go much over $18M. My preference is 4 years at $18M or five at $16-17M. That might not get it done, but if we do a five year contract he would be 35 at the end of it. After that we reach a point of diminishing returns.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, article in today's San Jose Mercury News saying Sandoval has lost 52 lbs. this winter with one brother cooking and another "supervising."  Last time he lost a bunch of weight he came back great.  Free swinger but great hitter and plays 3rd great when in shape.  Eats himself into trouble.  Contract year thus appearance of brothers.  Not advocating this move but it would work great for one year if we went in this direction.  He and Papi would have a lot of fun...he has knack for timely, dramatic hits.  His WS two years ago was like Papi's this year.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Moon, article in today's San Jose Mercury News saying Sandoval has lost 52 lbs. this winter with one brother cooking and another "supervising."  Last time he lost a bunch of weight he came back great.  Free swinger but great hitter and plays 3rd great when in shape.  Eats himself into trouble.  Contract year thus appearance of brothers.  Not advocating this move but it would work great for one year if we went in this direction.  He and Papi would have a lot of fun...he has knack for timely, dramatic hits.  His WS two years ago was like Papi's this year.



    For these reasons, SF is probably not looking to trade him, and I still think 3B is Bogey's eventual landing spot, but he could be a great "bridge" for us.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I wouldn't even be surprised if they trade Ranaudo. Some of those guys are worth a lot. We probably will trade one or 2 of them at some point just due to roster considerations and their value. If 1 or 2 guys emerge especially then someone will be considered expendable.

    I don't remember any team having such strong starting pitching prospects going into AAA ball in one year. How is this for a potential AAA rotation:

    1) Webster

    2) Barnes

    3) Ranaudo

    4) Workman

    5) RDLR

    6) Wright

    7) Britton

     

    That's a nice minor league pitching staff, but ...

    The Jackson Generals of the Double A Southern League went into the 2012 season with a rotation that included Brandon Maurer, Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton.

    Maurer was named* the Southern League's top pitcher that year before opening the 2013 season in the Seattle rotation. Entering the 2012 season Baseball America ranked Walker No. 20, Hultzen No. 21 and Paxton No. 52 on its Top 100 prospect list.

    Baseball America named the Jackson Generals the most talented minor league team on Opening Day 2012:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-10-minor-league-teams-on-opening-day/

    * http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120904&content_id=37859160&vkey=news_l111&fext=.jsp&sid=l111



    I had forgotten the Seattle situation Hill. You are exactly right. One of those guys was injured recently wasn't he ( Hultzen maybe? ) but quite a few of those guys like Walker and Paxton  probably emerge on the mlb staff this year I would think. 

    Seattle is emerging!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I don't remember any team having such strong starting pitching prospects going into AAA ball in one year. How is this for a potential AAA rotation:

    1) Webster

    2) Barnes

    3) Ranaudo

    4) Workman

    5) RDLR

    6) Wright

    7) Britton

     

    That's a nice minor league pitching staff, but ...

    The Jackson Generals of the Double A Southern League went into the 2012 season with a rotation that included Brandon Maurer, Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton. 

    Maurer was named* the Southern League's top pitcher that year before opening the 2013 season in the Seattle rotation. Entering the 2012 season Baseball America ranked Walker No. 20, Hultzen No. 21 and Paxton No. 52 on its Top 100 prospect list.

    Baseball America named the Jackson Generals the most talented minor league team on Opening Day 2012:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-10-minor-league-teams-on-opening-day/

    http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120904&content_id=37859160&vkey=news_l111&fext=.jsp&sid=l111

    [/QUOTE]

    I had forgotten the Seattle situation Hill. You are exactly right. One of those guys was injured recently wasn't he ( Hultzen maybe? ) but quite a few of those guys like Walker and Paxton  probably emerge on the mlb staff this year I would think. 

    Seattle is emerging!

     

    Hill, did all those guys go into AAA together to start one season?

     
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