Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I
posted at 1/21/2014 8:22 PM EST
First, I know Dice-K turned out to be a dissapointment, but injuries played a big role. He was a very talented pitcher. Yes, perhaps the overwork in Japan played a role in his injuries, but I still think the Sox played a role in his demise.
Now, to this post...
Generally I agree with this but I'm not that hopeful any of our starting pitching prospects ever become #1 level potential studs and at some point we are going to need at least 1, and hopefully 2. that's ok, they still are of a lot of value, but we also need some front end starters for when Lackey, Buchholz, Lester are gone.
We may not end up with a " #1 stud", but I think we have a pretty good chance that one will, or perhaps 2-3 might become very good #2s or #3s and maybe 2-3 more decent #3s or 4s
T Ball (19)
L Diaz (21)
This is 20 guys!
If I had to bet, from this group above, I'd say we end up with a solid, if not spectacular #1, #2, #3 and #4, plus possibly 2-5 decent #4-5 types. If we miss out on a legit #1, but end up with 2-3 solid #2s or #s, we can maybe get one through free agency, especially since we could be saving a lot of money with low cost 2-5 starters who came up through our system.
I especially agree that the way to beat Tanaka is probably through the HR. He pitches from almost a crouch with little downhill plane and a straight fastball. As he ages that is a potential big problem but he may well be one of the best 10 pitchers in mlb for the next few years. He would really be a great fit in LA but Kuroda has done very well in Yankee Stadium with very similar stuff. I think he would put up better numbers than anyone we have except Buchholz, and considering Buchholz now looks like an Treblinka refugee I don't think we can count on him at this point. He may never recover from where he was just a while ago.
It's hard to know if Buch is done. His type of injury is not hard to project. He looked pretty good when he came back last year, and modern medicine is improving by leaps and bounds.
And as I've documented several times here, I'm pretty sure Henry's group is clearing $200 mil per year in revenue from their local TV deal alone ( $60 mil directly to the team, $140 mil to the NESN ownership company). Throw in the $40 mil in revenue sharing and all the cash from attendance and concessions, advertising etc...and they can clearly afford Tanaka.
I agree. Maybe they just don't project him to be as good as some of us think he might be.
I don't think it is stinginess that kept Henry from opening up the purse strings, I think the management team set a value and knew their price would not win, so they chose not to even make an offer.
I have no problem signing Tanaka and then trading Dempster and even 2 starting pitching prospects as long as we keep several near mlb ready plus Workman. That secures the staff long term, and substantially upgrades our rotation in 2014. And our AAA level pitching prospects are worth a lot right now.
I feel the same way, but I trust Sox management to set the value. I'd have been happy if we got him, but I'm not going criticize Ben or Henry for not going long & large on Tanaka.