A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Here's a list of the Sox top prospects as ranked by soxprospects.com by position:

     

    C    8 Swihart, 13 Vazquez, 19 Denny, 30 Butler

     

    1B 26 Almanzar, 40 Longhi, 46 T Shaw

     

    2B 10 Betts, 20 W Rijo, 27 Coyle

     

    3B 3 Cecchini, 25 R Devers

     

    SS 1 Bogaerts, 17 Marrero, 37 T-W Lin

     

    OF 2 Bradley, 14 Margot, 18 Brentz, 21 Hassan, 31 Ramos, 32 de la Cruz

     

    SP 4 Owens, 5 Barnes, 6 Ranaudo, 7 Webster, 9 T Ball, 15 Johnson, 16 Stankiewicz, 22 L Diaz, 22 Buttrey, 24 Callahan, 28 Kukuk, 33 Mercedes, 34 S Gomez, 35 P Light,36 D McGrath, 38 M Smith, 39 C Littrell, 42 Wright, 43 Couch, 45 M Pena, 50 Haley

     

    RP 11 Workman, 12 Britton, 29 Wilson, 41 Martin, 44 Ramirez, 48 Stroup

     

     

    Nonprospects  25 or under:

    Middlebrooks

    Kalish

    Doubront

    Holt

    Lavarnway

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Uggla as in the guy who couldn't even make Atlanta's PO roster this year. The one who was "upset" he didn't make it after hitting .179 for the year and .083 in August and .112 in Spetember. As going anywhere near 1st base for the Redsox? I think we would need to mapquest it for him. 

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9766485/2013-mlb-playoffs-dan-uggla-upset-being-left-atlanta-braves-roster



    I believe most of that was covered in the original post.


    The projections give him a .340 OBP with 27HRs, and that is without all the fun of moving him to a better ballpark.  I will take that over Trumbo 9 times out of 9.  And I have had some surprising accuracy with this kind of thing.  (Of course, I have had some equally remarakble misses as well.  Let's not try to cover that up.  But hey, I am new at this.)

     

    I am sticking with "bounceback" candidate and, at the very least, a good place to buy low on...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Nonprospects  25 or under:

    Middlebrooks

    Kalish

    Doubront

    Holt

    Lavarnway

    To be precise, Felix Doubront and Ryan Lavarnway are 26 years old.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Nonprospects  25 or under:

    Middlebrooks

    Kalish

    Doubront

    Holt

    Lavarnway

    To be precise, Felix Doubront and Ryan Lavarnway are 26 years old.




     

    Very likely, they were using the age on July 1 of the calendar year, like most baseball websites do...

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to notin's comment:

    Nonprospects  25 or under:

    Middlebrooks

    Kalish

    Doubront

    Holt

    Lavarnway

    To be precise, Felix Doubront and Ryan Lavarnway are 26 years old. 

    Very likely, they were using the age on July 1 of the calendar year, like most baseball websites do...

    SoxProspects accurately lists the age of Xander Bogaerts, who has an October 1 birthday, as 21 years old.

    http://www.soxprospects.com/

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Notin, I have a lot of respect for your baseball acumen and I hope you know I mean that sincerely but I think Uggla is going to bounce all the way right out of the majors shortly. Those are God awful numbers recently and this is after the eye surgury? And he would have to move to 1st base where his offense would be even more important? I get that as a flyball hitter he could benefit in Fenway but I wouldn't trade him for Drew Sutton at this point. Or anyone on the 40 man roster. And to even consider it the opposing team would have to pick up all his salary. 

    Now watch him come back and be an all star again!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jcri's comment:

    I just don't get the McMann talk when we've got someone who does the same thing and already has a comfort level with the pitchers.  Furthermore it sounds like we have catchers about two years away.  If we don't land Salty, then pick up a serviceable catcher who teams with Ross.  McCann controls the run game better, but Salty's his equal elsewhere.



    McCann has just a marginally better CS%. Yes, better, but not by much.




    1% better cs than Salty over their careers. They are basically the same person defensively.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I didn't say Peavy WAS a salary dump. I said EVEN IF we had to make him a salary dump to move him I would still do it. We just traded a solid piece in Iglesias to get him so he should get us something in return but he does have roughly $16 mil against the luxury tax limit if I remember correctly so taking him off the roster opens up a lot of money for other signs. It's complicated but his $4 mil contract buyout affects things.

    I think we know we are not going to be able to move Dempster's contract. If we want to clear cap space, we need top consider trading at least one starting pitcher ( I know it's not a "cap" any more but you know what I mean ).

    I don't get the rumors that we might trade Lackey. He is exactly what we want I would think. They must be dangling him to some low budget teams with lots of available prospects. But I really don't see that happening.

    I also wish they would leave Workman in the pen but if they think he can make the transition I'm willing to consider it.



    Im glad your willing to consider it. Ben will be happy to hear that..make what transition? Hes been a starter his whole career. They used him in the pen out of necessity. Hes a starter, there is no transition. Hes pitched 130+IP the last 2 years and should have easily broke 160+IP this year if the Sox didnt NEED a RHP in the pen in Boston. It would be a waste if they made this kid a FT middle reliever right now.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    Nonprospects  25 or under:

    Middlebrooks

    Kalish

    Doubront

    Holt

    Lavarnway

    To be precise, Felix Doubront and Ryan Lavarnway are 26 years old. 

    Very likely, they were using the age on July 1 of the calendar year, like most baseball websites do...

    SoxProspects accurately lists the age of Xander Bogaerts, who has an October 1 birthday, as 21 years old.

    http://www.soxprospects.com/



    I was using baseballreference.com.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The following players will be eligible for the December 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair,Bryce BrentzChris CarpenterGarin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La CruzLuis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, Nate Reed, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Madison Younginer

    I think we have 36 players on the 40 man roster right now, so Cecchini, Ranaudo and Brentz will be added soon. The last player has more to do with who we think some team may choose to draft. Remember, the team that drafts a player has to keep them on their 25 man roster all year. Is Luis Diaz MLB ready? Almanzar? de la Cruz? Some team may take one anyways, but my guess is we put Luis Diaz at #40, or trade away a player or two to make room for all two or three.

    Trade or DFA candidates:

    Andrew Bailey (nontender?)

    Alex Castellanos

    Brayan Villareal

    Mike Carp

    Brock Holt

    Ryan Dempster

    Alex Hassan

    Dan Butler

    Steven Wright

    Alex Wilson

    Ryan Kalish

    Morales or Miller

     

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    soxprospects.com has this to say about Bogey's defense ...

    Bogaerts's calling card will always be his hitting ability, but he has also steadily improved defensively and will be able to stick at shortstop for the foreseeable future. At 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, Bogaerts has filled out since he entered the system, but he has not lost any athleticism. He has plenty of arm for the position, showing plus in game action. He has soft hands and solid range to either side. The area where he could still use improvement comes with his footwork, which can get sloppy at times. He still does not gain ground all that well on the ball, preferring to stay back and wait for a perfect hop, and he has some trouble throwing on the run. His reads at the position are improving, but his first step is still a little slow and with only average foot speed, he does not have the ability to recover. These are small issues, but in combination they hold him back from projecting as a plus-to-better shortstop. Even with that in mind, with his bat and the ability to play average to solid-average defense at a premium defensive position, you have the makings of a potential superstar. – Ian Cundall

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Agreed that option A is to try to unload part of Dempster's contract, probably to a NL team like the Giants...etc. If we can do that and unload 8-10 mil I'm all for it. I don't have a huge problem keeping him though either. At least he's durable and probably wins half his games with the Sox. That's not bad out of a #5.



    With 6 starters plus Morales, Worman, Britton, Webster, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Owens and other, subtracting about $7-9M from our budget by trading Dempster makes too much sense to not try. 

    Is the step down from Dempster to Morales and Co that large?

    Is the gain we can get by adding $7-9M to our winter spending budget significant enough to outweigh the possible loss at the 6 starter slot?

    I think it's a no-brainer.

    While the 6 starter is important, we have 4-5 major holes to fill this winter, and that $8M or so, can go a long way towards filling 1 or 2 of them.

     

    We might be able to keep Salty for about that amount.

    SP6 Dempster

    C  Ross/Lava

    or 

    SP6 Morales

    C  Salty/Ross




    This idea that we should trade a starter because we have a so called surplus is non sense. Last time we did that we lost Bronson Arroyo. Going into next season is there any gaurantees that Buchholz or Peavy will give us 30 starts or 190+ ip next year? or that Doubront doesn't show up to camp next yr out of shape and that he doesn't spend the first mos of season at the fat farm? Look Dempster was exactly what I thought he would be, a guy that basically makes 30 starts [something he's done for the past 7 seasons] and 170+ ip w/ a .500 record and a 4.5 era and gives his team a chance to win almost everytime out. There is a lot to be said for that! At this point I would have no problem w/ Dempster in the bullpen and as a spot starter should someone go down to start yr. If you want to trade anyone trade Morales a guy who has never proven he can give you 30 starts, but at his age would bring something back in return, not just a salary dump. While all the young guys you mention have a lot of promise, I would not like to throw any of them into the rotation to start the year because we traded our so called surplus. Makes better sense to do what RS did w/ Workman this yr and gradually work them into the staff, not throw them to the wolves so to speak. Pitchers take time most often, a guy like Raunado has taken 1 step forward then 1 step back almost his whole minor league career, anyone that thinks you could throw him into rotation to start yr is crazy. Same could be said for Workman wasn't like we all started last yr saying can't wait for Workman to come up this yr, he was a nice surprise. Counting on young pitchers to step in and make 30 starts usually ends horribly, thats why a guy like Dempster got the $ he did if it wasn't RS someone else would have. Pitching Wins! Never have too many starters.. 



    Normally, I am always about upgrading the rotation near the top slots, but this winter is a special one. How many times has this team lost 4 big players and have only $32M to replace them?

    We can trade the farm or trade Dempster. I choose Dempster. At worst, we make a trade for another Peavy in July.




    I think the improvements could come from below. Does a M.Barnes or H.Owens make the same jump that B.Workman or the Cardinal kids did last yr. We've seen in the past what can happen to a staff when guys are always getting hurt or just give you 5 ip. The reason our bullpen was a strength last yr was due to guys like Lackey/Lester/Dempster who consistently went out there made their starts and usually were around for close to 7ip. While Dempster may give salary relief, we would greatly miss those 170+ ip he gives us more. I'm just a guy who hates to give up pitching, just seems like you never have enough. I'd rather keep the pitching until the young guns prove they are ready. If Workman comes out of ST and start of year pitching the way he did this past season then count me in for moving Peavy or Dempster, and trust me you know some team will be looking, just need to see more from a guy like Workman first. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Southpaw, I like Workman as a starter too.  Watched him last summer and thought he acquitted himself well with his opportunity and that carried through in the pen.  I would think post WS he has more confidence now.

    Can you guys remember how we were talking last year at this time--how discouraging it all looked, how many holes, how far we had to go?  Sometimes it's just amazing to think how far we've come since last year.  Our farm kids got better and ended up helping the team, much better coaching, team morale, good years from pitchers, etc.  Depth was a big difference for us.  We have needs and decisions now, but we seem to be dealing from strength with depth at all levels.  One thing we don't seem to develop in the minors is power bats.  Sometimes I wish we would draft more of those, but I guess that means we'd have less good young pitching.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Uggla as in the guy who couldn't even make Atlanta's PO roster this year. The one who was "upset" he didn't make it after hitting .179 for the year and .083 in August and .112 in Spetember. As going anywhere near 1st base for the Redsox? I think we would need to mapquest it for him. 

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9766485/2013-mlb-playoffs-dan-uggla-upset-being-left-atlanta-braves-roster



    I believe most of that was covered in the original post.


    The projections give him a .340 OBP with 27HRs, and that is without all the fun of moving him to a better ballpark.  I will take that over Trumbo 9 times out of 9.  And I have had some surprising accuracy with this kind of thing.  (Of course, I have had some equally remarakble misses as well.  Let's not try to cover that up.  But hey, I am new at this.)

     

    I am sticking with "bounceback" candidate and, at the very least, a good place to buy low on...




    Count me way out on Uggla. As for Trumbo I think we already have one on our team, but only younger and under team control for [2] extra years in Wil Middlebrooks.

    162 game Avg.

    Mark Trumbo  .250 BA  33 Hr's  100 rbi's  .299 obp  .469 Slug %  768 OPS

    W. Middlebrooks .254    31 Hr's   99 rbi's   .294 obp  .462 Slug %  756 OPS

    I've been a  supporter of moving Middy to 1B. His #'s would be even better if he didn't hurt his wrist [usually takes a yr to recover] Cecchini is close. JBJ in CF, Boegarts at SS, and Ruiz at C. I think realistically everything RS do this off season should be toward another WS title in 15. FA Mkt this offseason shaping up to be one of the most expensive in recent memory and as Warren Buffet says "buy when people are selling and sell when people are buying" people didn't expect to win last yr, maybe it could happen 2 yrs in a row?

     
  15. This post has been removed.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

     

    Hey guys   Laughing

    If Napoli goes elsewhere, how about Kendry Morales?  In 2013, Morales had .277/.336/.449 with 23 homers. 

    Also, can any of you guess which player saw the most pitchers per at-bat in 2013?

    Answer is below.    Cool

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Napoli    Laughing

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

     

    I think the improvements could come from below. Does a M.Barnes or H.Owens make the same jump that B.Workman or the Cardinal kids did last yr. We've seen in the past what can happen to a staff when guys are always getting hurt or just give you 5 ip. The reason our bullpen was a strength last yr was due to guys like Lackey/Lester/Dempster who consistently went out there made their starts and usually were around for close to 7ip. While Dempster may give salary relief, we would greatly miss those 170+ ip he gives us more. I'm just a guy who hates to give up pitching, just seems like you never have enough. I'd rather keep the pitching until the young guns prove they are ready. If Workman comes out of ST and start of year pitching the way he did this past season then count me in for moving Peavy or Dempster, and trust me you know some team will be looking, just need to see more from a guy like Workman first. 

     

    1) I must have less of an opinion of Dempster's skillset than some of you guys. I really have just about as much faith in Morales. I'm fine with keeping Workman in the pen, but feel he could also be our 6th starter. 

    2) Without a quality catcher behind the plate, all our pitchers will suffer, and if we spend a lot to get that catcher, then we have precious little dollars left to find a 1Bman, CF'er, left-side IF'er, and relief pitcher.

    3) I'm fine with using 3 guys to take Dempsters slot as the 6th starter, and I have faith they can come close to his 2013 numbers.

     
  18. This post has been removed.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to LagunaJose's comment:

    Salty is being offered a two year contract according to MLBN.  To me that is good news.



    Red Sox Offer Saltalamacchia Two-Year Deal By  Charlie Wilmoth [November 13 at 6:47pm CST]

    The Red Sox have offered catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia a two-year deal, but that doesn't mean they aren't pursuing other catching options, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes. The team has also spoken to Brian McCannCarlos Ruiz and A.J. Pierzynski. (ESPN's Buster Olneywrote Wednesday morning that the Red Sox had made offers to several catchers, including Saltalamacchia.)

    Heyman writes that the Red Sox's offer to Saltalamacchia may have been for less than $10MM per season. Saltalamacchia likely would not find that offer particularly attractive --MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicted, for example, that Saltalamacchia would received a four-year, $36MM deal. Saltalamacchia hit .273/.338/.466 in a strong season for Boston in 2013, and he's still just 28.

    Heyman adds that the Red Sox have not recently spoken to free agent first baseman Mike Napoli. They are, however, still interested in retaining him.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    Hey guys   Laughing

    If Napoli goes elsewhere, how about Kendry Morales?  In 2013, Morales had .277/.336/.449 with 23 homers. 

    Also, can any of you guess which player saw the most pitchers per at-bat in 2013?

    Answer is below.    Cool

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Napoli    Laughing



    That's because he swings and misses so often! Cool It takes him 4 pitches to even foul one off. Another 3 to put it in play!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Morales has a pretty bad Glove. I think he bought it on sale at Kamart recently!

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I really like Workman also guys and I saw what he did as a starter in his 3 or so starts last year. He throws strikes and he's a moose. Probably real durable. Very little loss of velocity after 6 innings pitched. A lot good about him.

    All that said, why was he never in the top 10 on soxprospects then  ( if he was it was for a fleeting few weeks or something like that )? I think it's because he doesn't have a lot of pitchesand he never really showed much dominance at any level. He seems to have recently added a decent cutter and that has maybe improved his game a lot.  We all know how that can be all you need as Mariano has shown over the years but it's not a conventional pitch mix for a starter. I don't see a good changeup for example. 

    I think a better option right now, since we have plenty of other starters and even an nexcess of them right now, is to keep him in the pen. Maybe even make him the setup guy. 

    But I'll give Ben my ok in the morning so he can go ahead!

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I really like what I saw in Workman as well, but the sample size is pretty small.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I think the improvements could come from below. Does a M.Barnes or H.Owens make the same jump that B.Workman or the Cardinal kids did last yr. We've seen in the past what can happen to a staff when guys are always getting hurt or just give you 5 ip. The reason our bullpen was a strength last yr was due to guys like Lackey/Lester/Dempster who consistently went out there made their starts and usually were around for close to 7ip. While Dempster may give salary relief, we would greatly miss those 170+ ip he gives us more. I'm just a guy who hates to give up pitching, just seems like you never have enough. I'd rather keep the pitching until the young guns prove they are ready. If Workman comes out of ST and start of year pitching the way he did this past season then count me in for moving Peavy or Dempster, and trust me you know some team will be looking, just need to see more from a guy like Workman first. 

     

    1) I must have less of an opinion of Dempster's skillset than some of you guys. I really have just about as much faith in Morales. I'm fine with keeping Workman in the pen, but feel he could also be our 6th starter. 

    2) Without a quality catcher behind the plate, all our pitchers will suffer, and if we spend a lot to get that catcher, then we have precious little dollars left to find a 1Bman, CF'er, left-side IF'er, and relief pitcher.

    3) I'm fine with using 3 guys to take Dempsters slot as the 6th starter, and I have faith they can come close to his 2013 numbers.




    Moon, Think the part your missing in Dempster's skill set is his ability to make all his starts and give a staff IP. Something a guy like Morales has not been able to do in his career. A guy like Dempster makes the rest of the staff better by giving this team much needed IP, when we already have guys like Peavy and Buchholz on the staff. Good chance we will need a Morales or one of the young guys to take their turn at some point. Never too much depth in the rotation.

     Agree we have some spots to fill if most or all the FA's leave. But I would have no problem w/ filling as much as we can from within. Think most would agree Naps seems most likely of bunch to return w/ Salty probably right behind and Ells least likely. I would be willing to go w/ Middy 3B/Boegarts SS/Pedey 2B/ Naps 1b and Ruiz or Salty as the C, and JBJ in CF. But think this is a bad yr to try and fill holes thru FA, looking to be one of the more expensive FA mkt's in recent yrs. If we need to make a move to fill a spot would wait til in season we have a better look at guys like JBJ/Workman/Webster/DeLaRosa/etc. One thing for sure in this organization other than 1B / C we have plenty of depth and making a trade should not be a problem, other teams will covet our pitching depth. Bad part is a guy like Workman might actually start yr in AAA.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, Think the part your missing in Dempster's skill set is his ability to make all his starts and give a staff IP. Something a guy like Morales has not been able to do in his career. A guy like Dempster makes the rest of the staff better by giving this team much needed IP, when we already have guys like Peavy and Buchholz on the staff. Good chance we will need a Morales or one of the young guys to take their turn at some point. Never too much depth in the rotation.

    No, I get the going deep into game part of Dempster, and like I said, normally I am all for strengthening the rotation (from the top not the bottom), but this year is a freakish situation.

    The fact is, we have 5 starters who had a QS% of 59 or more. The league average is 51%. Dempster was at 48%. His 5.8 IP/GS is below the league average as well (5.9%), but I realize he may have had the highest IP/GS of any 5/6 starter in MLB in 2013. There is certainly value there.

    Chances are there will be an injury to one of our top 5 starters. I get that, but my position is that Morales, Wrkman, Britton, Wright, Webster, Ranaudo and maybe later on Owens or Barnes can give us close to what Dempster gave us. We couldf also sign 1-2 middle relievers to take some heat off Uehara, Breslow and Tazawa, if the 6th starter does not go 5.8 IP/GS as Dempster did.

    Also, it's not a given that Dempster will do as well as 2013. He is getting on in age. Paying a 6th starter $13.5M is insane. His value to another team is higher than to us, and that is the impetus of making a trade. His high Fenway ERA and 4.03 away ERA is attractive to many teams in a time when SP'ers are scarce.

     

     Agree we have some spots to fill if most or all the FA's leave. But I would have no problem w/ filling as much as we can from within. Think most would agree Naps seems most likely of bunch to return w/ Salty probably right behind and Ells least likely. I would be willing to go w/ Middy 3B/Boegarts SS/Pedey 2B/ Naps 1b and Ruiz or Salty as the C, and JBJ in CF. But think this is a bad yr to try and fill holes thru FA, looking to be one of the more expensive FA mkt's in recent yrs. If we need to make a move to fill a spot would wait til in season we have a better look at guys like JBJ/Workman/Webster/DeLaRosa/etc. One thing for sure in this organization other than 1B / C we have plenty of depth and making a trade should not be a problem, other teams will covet our pitching depth. Bad part is a guy like Workman might actually start yr in AAA.

    Let's assume we sign Napoli ($15M x 2 or 3 years), Ruiz ($18M/2) and Mujica $21M/3, and all the luxury limit space is used up. Our pen will look  stronger than 2013, so that will help alleviate the loss of IP/GS from our 6th starter, but we have to hope several young players come through. We will have precious little depth at CF (Victorino behind JBJ) and left-side IF (Holt behind Bogey & Middy). 

    We will put a lot of pressure on 3 kids:

    JBJ in CF (I like JBJ and have faith he will do well, but what if...)

    Bogey at SS (3B is his best spot and he is only 21.)

    Middy at 3B (coming off a season where he was demoted twice and had serious fielding issues)

     

    Yes, what if a SP gets hurt, but God forbid, what if Ruis or Ross gets hurt? What if Victorino or JBj gets hurt? Middy or Bogey?

     

    We may be able to get something useful for Dempster, Carp, Miller and Lava to help give us better positioned depth, but if we free up about $10M from Dempster's deal, we could probably add Rajai Davis and B Ryan or C Barnes.

    To me, that upgrade is way better than the downgrade from Dempster to Morales & co. And, if we trade  Dempster, Carp, and Lava for another relief pitcher or 6th starter type, the downgrade could be turned into an upgrade. Middy and Nava become napoli's back-up over Carp, and Butler and Vazquez take over the 3rd catcher role from Lava.

    Win-win-win-win...

     
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