A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Peavy was excellent in 2012, hardly a marginal step-up over Dempster.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Peavy was excellent in 2012, hardly a marginal step-up over Dempster.



    Let's look at 2012 to 2013 combined:

    105 MLB pitchers with 250+ IP

    ERA-

    21  Buchholz  84

    33  Peavy       88

    47  Dempster 96  (many innings in NL)

    64  Lester      102

    72  Doubront 104

    WHIP

    12  Peavy  1.12

    40  Buch    1.22

    70  Demp  1.32

    78  Lest     1.34

    94  Doub   1.40

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Peavy was excellent in 2012, though there is long gap between that and his prime (2003-2008) but what it did show is when healthy he can still be every bit as good as he was back in the day.

    Certainly he is worth being in the rotation and held onto to start 2014. If he is 2012 Peavy you won't want to lose him. Anything less then so what. We have depth, we have money, we have Buch, Lester, and Lackey 1-3. Good situation to be in.

    Of course saying he is maybe slighty better than Dempster and then wanting to bring an animal such as Kuroda in is something only real baseball people would say and do.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    While I like McCann the one thing I read around the net is that he can just slide over and be the DH here in 2or 3 years. Does anyone here really want a DH who is a 24HR/70RBI caliber hitter? Is that really what we or anyone in the front-office would want? No.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    While I like McCann the one thing I read around the net is that he can just slide over and be the DH here in 2or 3 years. Does anyone here really want a DH who is a 24HR/70RBI caliber hitter? Is that really what we or anyone in the front-office would want? No.



    There's no way McCann is worth that money to be a DH.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Dempster is clearly the guy they want to trade but what do you do if nobody wants him, even if we pick up 1/2 his salary? I think that's what we are going to have to do if we want to move him but maybe he's worth $6-7 mil. In this instance, I'd probably keep him. So then you would have to look at trading other options like Peavy to clear up money to address other needs.

    Basically we have $32 mil to spend. Sometimes people seem to forget that. WE HAVE to trade someone who is expensive if we are going to have much money to spend for this team in 2014. Ergo, in my opinion, maybe a Dempster or Peavy who both have big contracts and maybe are not critical to our team going forward. 

    And I'm advocating a run at Tanaka in place of one of these two guys because a lot of his costs don't count against the luxury tax threshhold. The guy was 24-0 last year with an ERA in the 1.5 range ( I don't remember exactly what is was but let's just say extremely good ok ). What's wrong with that? Ridding ourselves a $13-$16 mil contract in Dempster, and using probably less money against the cap for Tanaka who might be the biggest starting pitching sign in years. Think Koji, with better stuff, and he's a starter.

    IF WE CAN'T do the Tanaka deal, I'd be all over Kuroda, who has put up some of the best numbers in baseball for the last 4 years in a row. I DON'T CARE if he ended last year badly. If you followed the Yankees last year he carried that team on his back and when their pen went completely down the tubes they kept him in games he had no business being in at the end of the year. And his numbers suffered as a result. Why not upgrade the rotation, on a 1 year deal no less with minimal risk, and hurt the yankees badly all at the same time. He's a proven commodity in the AL east. You guys should be doing jumping jacks over that idea. It's a no brainer.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If we can't arrange a good trade for Dempster or Peavy, and maybe we think we could sell high on Doubront, then go with the trade Doubront option. He is cost controlled and we have 4 years of control. He is worth a lot and we could maybe get a real solid player back in return, for example a solid 1st baseman so we don't have to sign Napoli for $13 mil / 3 years or whatever he is going to get.

    The 2 most valuable commodities in baseball right now  (besides a great SS ) are power bats and starting pitching. We have great starting pitching at the mlb level and lots of AAA talent there as well. One could make a strong case that right now the Redsox are in a better position to trade a starter than any other team in baseball. And I think they will pull the trigger there in some way.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'm not advocating McCann but he could be a decent DH later on, after giving us 2-3 good years as a catcher. Ortiz isn't going to play forever. I'm not saying McCann would put up Ortiz type numbers at DH but he would be a good DH. Just TOO EXPENSIVE a DH, but if you want him at catcher for 2-3 years sometimes that is the sort of thing you have to do. I don't think he's going to get $100 mil. His numbers improve in Fenway and he would play more games if he were not catching. He is basically equivalent in many ways to Napoli, who we just offered 3 years and $39 mil or so last year. Again, power bats are extremely difficult to find and McCann has hit over 20 HR a year for the last 6 years in a row. I don't think it's likely we sign him though and I would not advocate it at anything over 3 years and $45 mil or so, and he's clearly going to get more than that. And since we have some great catching prospects coming up I just don't think they would want him for more than 2-3 years at most.

    I'd go cheap at catcher and spend what cash we have to upgrade the starting pitching staff with Tanaka or Kuroda if possible ( Tim Hudson looks more likely ) , sign Rajai Davis for a good RH outfielder with speed to burn and bring in Beltran for LF. Move Nava to 1st mainly with Carp ( both have splits which are not HORRIBLE overall against LH pitching ). Go with JBJ in CF and we would have Beltran/Nava/ Davis/Gomes/Victorino/Carp who all could help out some in the OF, which is plenty to me. I'd probably spend no more than $5-7 mil a year on a catcher and go with him and Ross with Lavarnway as backup. And we could actually afford it. It should be within budget. 

    If we are struggling to stay under the cap, don't sign Davis. I'd rather save at catcher though, even if it meant starting with Lavarnway/Ross.

    If others think that's crazy fine. Everyone has a right to their opinion. That is what I would do. I think it improves our pitching staff, keeps our lineup about the same and gives us better RH outfield depth. If we don't even acquire a single reliever I think we'd be fine but it does appear they want a new setup guy.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I'm not advocating McCann but he could be a decent DH later on, after giving us 2-3 good years as a catcher. Ortiz isn't going to play forever. I'm not saying McCann would put up Ortiz type numbers at DH but he would be a good DH. Just TOO EXPENSIVE a DH, but if you want him at catcher for 2-3 years sometimes that is the sort of thing you have to do. I don't think he's going to get $100 mil. His numbers improve in Fenway and he would play more games if he were not catching. He is basically equivalent in many ways to Napoli, who we just offered 3 years and $39 mil or so last year. Again, power bats are extremely difficult to find and McCann has hit over 20 HR a year for the last 6 years in a row. I don't think it's likely we sign him though and I would not advocate it at anything over 3 years and $45 mil or so, and he's clearly going to get more than that. And since we have some great catching prospects coming up I just don't think they would want him for more than 2-3 years at most.

    I'd go cheap at catcher and spend what cash we have to upgrade the starting pitching staff with Tanaka or Kuroda if possible ( Tim Hudson looks more likely ) , sign Rajai Davis for a good RH outfielder with speed to burn and bring in Beltran for LF. Move Nava to 1st mainly with Carp ( both have splits which are not HORRIBLE overall against LH pitching ). Go with JBJ in CF and we would have Beltran/Nava/ Davis/Gomes/Victorino/Carp who all could help out some in the OF, which is plenty to me. I'd probably spend no more than $5-7 mil a year on a catcher and go with him and Ross with Lavarnway as backup. And we could actually afford it. It should be within budget. 

    If we are struggling to stay under the cap, don't sign Davis. I'd rather save at catcher though, even if it meant starting with Lavarnway/Ross.

    If others think that's crazy fine. Everyone has a right to their opinion. That is what I would do. I think it improves our pitching staff, keeps our lineup about the same and gives us better RH outfield depth. If we don't even acquire a single reliever I think we'd be fine but it does appear they want a new setup guy.

    I think the Sox are waiting to see which way the river flows on Napoli and Drew. Once they see where the waters stop then they'll make their moves. I doubt very seriously they want Lavarnway catching on a regular basis, so it's pick a catcher replacement should Salty not re-sign. McCann is tight with Ross so maybe he's a fit, but If not they will be looking for a catcher too compliment Ross from the left side of the plate. A.J., McCann,Navarro are the likely suspects.

    1B is another situation if Napoli takes the money and runs there are in house options: Nava,Carp,and here's where Lavarnway could land as the RH 1rst baseman. If they shop outside the organization Hart, Morales, and Kornerko would be possible signee's.

    CF though not a problem with JBJ and Victorino is another area they might consider bringing in a solid back-up or plan C, Rajai Davis would be my first choice, followed closely by Franklin Gutierrez or they could try and trade for one. My only question is has anyone seen Ryan Kalish?

    Though they will make other moves these are the primary ones too consider.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    If I had a chance to move Dempster straight up for just cash only (some team absorbing his entire contract), I'd do it in a heartbeat but if it happened there would probably be 1-2 throwaway players in the deal back to us for appearance purposes. He might come back and give us decent innings again and probably even better numbers but we need the cash guys. That luxury tax limit is an issue. The Redsox will be going over it again by 2016 but not this year IMO. It's a complicated process I'd rather not explain but I'm pretty sure they don't go over the cap this year.

    Which probably means they trade one of our starting pitchers and Dempster has an X on the back of his jersey. He's option A for us.

    That doesn't mean any other team will bite though. It wouldn't surprise me if Doubront is the guy moved because he is probably worth as much as anyone on the staff not named Buchholz. Lester only has 1 year on his contract. They've got to love what they have in Lackey right now and he's cheap and under 2 years control. Peavy is also expensive but maybe a step above Dempster. A decent chance he gets moved. But 4 years of prearb Doubront after the numbers he put up last year is very attractive. For example for a real solid 1st baseman or catcher.

     



    Right now we  only owe 14M to the 2016 payroll, a few players with arb that wont be here and the rest that will hardly amount to too much. You really think were going to spend 170M by then? I mean we could, but to say that the Sox WILL be over the tax by 2016 is a bit premature.  You really need to stop speaking in absolutes. Also, Id really like you to explain whats so complicated to understand about this process.

     

    The year to go over IS 2014 because we lose a bunch of contracts including Dempster, Peavey, Lackey (minimum), Gomes, Uehara, Breslow, Ross, Lester (if we dont re-sign), Morales, and Miller. Pedey, Buch and Vic's last year are all we owe for 2015 with 6 arb cases in which 2 or 3 might even be non-tendered. We can easily reset again in 2015 going forward. 2014 is the year, if any, to go over.

    Im not saying they are, or that they should. All Im saying is that if they were to do it, 2014 looks like the perfect time to do it.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Southpa, I didn't want to take the time to go over it but I didn't state in absolutes with no reason. As I understand it, there is a lot to lose in revenue sharing this year if a team choses to go over the limit. Even the Yanks want to stay under the limit this year and look how badly they need to restock players? It's not just to reset the cycle. I don't know exactly what the return is but it could well be $20 - $30 mil per team as the league is making money bigtime. The TV deals and mlb.com revenues, sports jersey's, hats etc... are generating a huge amount of cash.  

    This is one of the last few years all teams under the cap will even be eligible for revenue sharing if they are under the limit. In 2016, the top 15 markets will no longer be elligible for revenue sharing no matter what so why not go over it in 2016, and why not share in the revenue this year and next?

    The Yanks and Redsox, Dodgers etc... will no longer be eligible for revenue sharing in 2016. Spending might well escallate a lot. We don't know that the Redsox will chose to go over the cap in 2016 but there is a lot of incentive to lock down key players before then, because spending could well go up if 15 teams are not nearly as concerned with the cap any more. Now is a good time to lock up a John Lester and maybe even a Lackey beyond their current contracts ( actually next Spring is ideal due to cap considerations ). Top players are going to command potentially off the charts salaries in 2016.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I don't think the Sox need to go over the cap in 2014. They have a solid team and loyal fan base. They just raised prices. TV revenues will be strong anyway. They already went under last year so they don't need to reset things. It could happen though. I think it's more likely to be in 2016.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Dempster is clearly the guy they want to trade but what do you do if nobody wants him, even if we pick up 1/2 his salary? I think that's what we are going to have to do if we want to move him but maybe he's worth $6-7 mil. In this instance, I'd probably keep him. So then you would have to look at trading other options like Peavy to clear up money to address other needs.

    Peavy is much better than Dempster and would net a better return as well as save more money, but I do think someone will take Dempster and his whole contract or at least $10M of it. Wait until you see what free agents like Dempster will get this winter.

     

    Basically we have $32 mil to spend. Sometimes people seem to forget that. WE HAVE to trade someone who is expensive if we are going to have much money to spend for this team in 2014. Ergo, in my opinion, maybe a Dempster or Peavy who both have big contracts and maybe are not critical to our team going forward. 

    And I'm advocating a run at Tanaka in place of one of these two guys because a lot of his costs don't count against the luxury tax threshhold. The guy was 24-0 last year with an ERA in the 1.5 range ( I don't remember exactly what is was but let's just say extremely good ok ). What's wrong with that? Ridding ourselves a $13-$16 mil contract in Dempster, and using probably less money against the cap for Tanaka who might be the biggest starting pitching sign in years. Think Koji, with better stuff, and he's a starter.

    I'm warming up to the Tanaka idea myself, but although the posting fee does not count against the luxury limit, it may end up costing more than going over the limit by spending more than $32M.

     

    IF WE CAN'T do the Tanaka deal, I'd be all over Kuroda, who has put up some of the best numbers in baseball for the last 4 years in a row. I DON'T CARE if he ended last year badly. If you followed the Yankees last year he carried that team on his back and when their pen went completely down the tubes they kept him in games he had no business being in at the end of the year. And his numbers suffered as a result. Why not upgrade the rotation, on a 1 year deal no less with minimal risk, and hurt the yankees badly all at the same time. He's a proven commodity in the AL east. You guys should be doing jumping jacks over that idea. It's a no brainer....

    I'm one of the few Ok with the Kuroda (or Hudson)  idea, but only if we trade Dempster and Peavy.

     

    I'm not advocating McCann but he could be a decent DH later on, after giving us 2-3 good years as a catcher. Ortiz isn't going to play forever. I'm not saying McCann would put up Ortiz type numbers at DH but he would be a good DH. Just TOO EXPENSIVE a DH, but if you want him at catcher for 2-3 years sometimes that is the sort of thing you have to do. I don't think he's going to get $100 mil. His numbers improve in Fenway and he would play more games if he were not catching. He is basically equivalent in many ways to Napoli, who we just offered 3 years and $39 mil or so last year. Again, power bats are extremely difficult to find and McCann has hit over 20 HR a year for the last 6 years in a row. I don't think it's likely we sign him though and I would not advocate it at anything over 3 years and $45 mil or so, and he's clearly going to get more than that. And since we have some great catching prospects coming up I just don't think they would want him for more than 2-3 years at most.

    I don't see McCann being a great DH, and at the money he will get, he'd need to be.

     

    I'd go cheap at catcher and spend what cash we have to upgrade the starting pitching staff with Tanaka or Kuroda if possible ( Tim Hudson looks more likely ) , sign Rajai Davis for a good RH outfielder with speed to burn and bring in Beltran for LF. Move Nava to 1st mainly with Carp ( both have splits which are not HORRIBLE overall against LH pitching ). Go with JBJ in CF and we would have Beltran/Nava/ Davis/Gomes/Victorino/Carp who all could help out some in the OF, which is plenty to me. I'd probably spend no more than $5-7 mil a year on a catcher and go with him and Ross with Lavarnway as backup. And we could actually afford it. It should be within budget. 

    If we are struggling to stay under the cap, don't sign Davis. I'd rather save at catcher though, even if it meant starting with Lavarnway/Ross.

    I'm fine with Rajai and Suzuki, as long as we go large at 1B and get a good left side IF'er (SS preferred).

     

    If others think that's crazy fine. Everyone has a right to their opinion. That is what I would do. I think it improves our pitching staff, keeps our lineup about the same and gives us better RH outfield depth. If we don't even acquire a single reliever I think we'd be fine but it does appear they want a new setup guy.

    RP'ers are cheaper.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from splendidsplinder. Show splendidsplinder's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What a fantastic act to follow!

    The 2013 Sox rocked our world. Congratulations to everyone involved in making it happen.

    Some big decisions loom on the horizon. The big 4 free agents are at the top of the list:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Napoli

    3) Salty

    4) Drew

    Here's a look at the framework we are starting with:

    The 2014  Forty  man Roster and Rule 5 Possibilities (listed by team seniority):

    1) Ortiz

    2) Lester

    3) Pedroia

    4) Buccholz (60 Day DL)

    5) Doubront

    6) Tazawa

    7) Lackey

    8) Kalish (60 Day DL)

    9) Morales

    10) Miller (60 Day DL)

    11) Lavarnway

    12) Middlebrooks

    13) Britton

    14) Bailey (60 Day DL)

    15) Nava

    16) Breslow

    17) Ross

    18) Webster

    19) de la Rosa

    20) Wilson (60 Day DL)

    21) Wright

    22) Butler

    23) Vazquez

    24) Hassan

    25) Gomes

    26) Victorino

    27) Uehara

    28) Dempster

    29) Holt

    30) Carp

    31) Bradley

    32) Snyder

    33) Workman

    34) Thornton (club option)

    35) Villareal

    36) Peavy

    37) Bogaerts

    38) Berry

    39) Castellanos

    Blue= May be traded or DFA'd to make room for those needing rule 5 protection.

     

    Minor League Free Agents to be, unless added to the 40 Man roster in November:

    Alfredo Aceves, Ronald Bermudez, Anthony Carter, Miguel Celestino, Ryan Dent, Jonathan Diaz, Marco Duarte, Vladimir Frias, Charlie Haeger, Mark Hamilton, Justin Henry, Brock Huntzinger, Bobby Lanigan, Will Latimer, Mitch Maier, Matt Maloney, Jack McGeary, Eric Niesen, Gerardo Olivares, Rafael Perez, Manny Rivera, Alberto Rosario, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Matt Spring, Drew Sutton, Tony Thomas

     

    Rule 5 Eligible (must be added to the 40 man roster by Nov 20):

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair,Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, Nate Reed, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Shannon Wilkerson, Madison Younginer

    I'd say de la Cruz and Almanzar may not get drafted Rule 5, but the following probably need to be protected or lost:

    1) Cecchini

    2) Ranaudo

    3) L Diaz

    4) Brentz

     

    If we sign 4 free agents: OF, SS/3B, 1B and RP somethings got to give. 4 free agents plus 4 rule 5 protected roster moves makes about 8 that need to be added to the 40 man roster.

    See the players in blue to determine who must go to make room, unless we pull off a 2 or 3 for 1 deal or two somewhere.

     

    Let's keep it real on this thread.

     

    As much as we hate to say it, the offseason has begun!

     

    Sox4ever

     

     

     Link to Part III of 2013:

    http://boston.com/community/forums/sports/red-sox/on-the-front-burner/a-realistic-view-at-2013-part-iii/100/6760531


    For what it's worth, this is what Paul White of USA SPORTS WEEKLY, issue Nov. 13-19,2014 projects for free agents' landing (numdeber on the left is his ranking of arents:

    2 Ellsbury, 7/150M- Red Sox

    5. Nopoli 3/42M- Red Sox

    6. McCann 4/65MM- Red Sox

    9. Drew. Drew 3/32M- Cardinals

    11. Salty 4/40M - Rangers

    1. Cano 8/223M-Yankees

    3. Choo 6/100- Orioles

    4. Tanaka /62M -Angels

    7. Nathan 2/26- Indians

    8. Benoit 2/18-2/18- Tigers

    10. Prralta 2/20m_Dodgers

    12. Santana 5/75M-royals

    13 Infante 2/22.5M-Orioles

    14 Byrd 2/14M- Giants

    15. Beltran 3/44M- Yankees

    16 Loney 2/12M- Rays

    17. Jimenez 4/48M Giants

    18. Kuroda- returns to Japan

    19. Garza %/80M- Giants

    20. N. Cruz 2/30-Rangers

    21. Colon 1/10m- Indian22. Granderson 1/14.1M-Yankees

    23. Nolasco 3/35-Yankees

    25. A. J.  Burnett 2/25M-Orioles

    25. Morales 2/26M- Mariners

     

     

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from splendidsplinder. Show splendidsplinder's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to splendidsplinder's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What a fantastic act to follow!

    The 2013 Sox rocked our world. Congratulations to everyone involved in making it happen.

    Some big decisions loom on the horizon. The big 4 free agents are at the top of the list:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Napoli

    3) Salty

    4) Drew

    Here's a look at the framework we are starting with:

    The 2014  Forty  man Roster and Rule 5 Possibilities (listed by team seniority):

    1) Ortiz

    2) Lester

    3) Pedroia

    4) Buccholz (60 Day DL)

    5) Doubront

    6) Tazawa

    7) Lackey

    8) Kalish (60 Day DL)

    9) Morales

    10) Miller (60 Day DL)

    11) Lavarnway

    12) Middlebrooks

    13) Britton

    14) Bailey (60 Day DL)

    15) Nava

    16) Breslow

    17) Ross

    18) Webster

    19) de la Rosa

    20) Wilson (60 Day DL)

    21) Wright

    22) Butler

    23) Vazquez

    24) Hassan

    25) Gomes

    26) Victorino

    27) Uehara

    28) Dempster

    29) Holt

    30) Carp

    31) Bradley

    32) Snyder

    33) Workman

    34) Thornton (club option)

    35) Villareal

    36) Peavy

    37) Bogaerts

    38) Berry

    39) Castellanos

    Blue= May be traded or DFA'd to make room for those needing rule 5 protection.

     

    Minor League Free Agents to be, unless added to the 40 Man roster in November:

    Alfredo Aceves, Ronald Bermudez, Anthony Carter, Miguel Celestino, Ryan Dent, Jonathan Diaz, Marco Duarte, Vladimir Frias, Charlie Haeger, Mark Hamilton, Justin Henry, Brock Huntzinger, Bobby Lanigan, Will Latimer, Mitch Maier, Matt Maloney, Jack McGeary, Eric Niesen, Gerardo Olivares, Rafael Perez, Manny Rivera, Alberto Rosario, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Matt Spring, Drew Sutton, Tony Thomas

     

    Rule 5 Eligible (must be added to the 40 man roster by Nov 20):

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair,Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, Nate Reed, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Shannon Wilkerson, Madison Younginer

    I'd say de la Cruz and Almanzar may not get drafted Rule 5, but the following probably need to be protected or lost:

    1) Cecchini

    2) Ranaudo

    3) L Diaz

    4) Brentz

     

    If we sign 4 free agents: OF, SS/3B, 1B and RP somethings got to give. 4 free agents plus 4 rule 5 protected roster moves makes about 8 that need to be added to the 40 man roster.

    See the players in blue to determine who must go to make room, unless we pull off a 2 or 3 for 1 deal or two somewhere.

     

    Let's keep it real on this thread.

     

    As much as we hate to say it, the offseason has begun!

     

    Sox4ever

     

     

     Link to Part III of 2013:

    http://boston.com/community/forums/sports/red-sox/on-the-front-burner/a-realistic-view-at-2013-part-iii/100/6760531


    For what it's worth, this is what Paul White of USA SPORTS WEEKLY, issue Nov. 13-19,2014 projects for free agents' landing (numdeber on the left is his ranking of arents:

    2 Ellsbury, 7/150M- Red Sox

    5. Nopoli 3/42M- Red Sox

    6. McCann 4/65MM- Red Sox

    9. Drew. Drew 3/32M- Cardinals

    11. Salty 4/40M - Rangers

    1. Cano 8/223M-Yankees

    3. Choo 6/100- Orioles

    4. Tanaka /62M -Angels

    7. Nathan 2/26- Indians

    8. Benoit 2/18-2/18- Tigers

    10. Prralta 2/20m_Dodgers

    12. Santana 5/75M-royals

    13 Infante 2/22.5M-Orioles

    14 Byrd 2/14M- Giants

    15. Beltran 3/44M- Yankees

    16 Loney 2/12M- Rays

    17. Jimenez 4/48M Giants

    18. Kuroda- returns to Japan

    19. Garza %/80M- Giants

    20. N. Cruz 2/30-Rangers

    21. Colon 1/10m- Indian22. Granderson 1/14.1M-Yankees

    23. Nolasco 3/35-Yankees

    25. A. J.  Burnett 2/25M-Orioles

    25. Morales 2/26M- Mariners

     

     

     

     



    Correction 19. Garza 5/80- Giants 

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from splendidsplinder. Show splendidsplinder's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I


    i DO KNOW HOW TO SPELL "SPLINTER" BUT AMM NOT ALLOED TO EDIT!

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Salty going back the Rangers when hell freezes over?

    I don't think so.

    I think Paul White pulls that stuff out of his rear. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    .................

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Salty to Texas would be a surprise, mostly the folks down there remember when he couldn't throw the ball back to the pitcher.

    Highly doubt the Sox drop 150/7 on Ells.

    Believe there's a battle on for Drew between Sox and Cards.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Salty to Texas would be a surprise, mostly the folks down there remember when he couldn't throw the ball back to the pitcher.

    Highly doubt the Sox drop 150/7 on Ells.

    Believe there's a battle on for Drew between Sox and Cards.



    That is good because the last time we dueled the Cards in a WS we took their SS Renteria. Time to screw the Cards.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Dempster is clearly the guy they want to trade but what do you do if nobody wants him, even if we pick up 1/2 his salary? I think that's what we are going to have to do if we want to move him but maybe he's worth $6-7 mil. In this instance, I'd probably keep him. So then you would have to look at trading other options like Peavy to clear up money to address other needs.

    Basically we have $32 mil to spend. Sometimes people seem to forget that. WE HAVE to trade someone who is expensive if we are going to have much money to spend for this team in 2014. Ergo, in my opinion, maybe a Dempster or Peavy who both have big contracts and maybe are not critical to our team going forward. 

    And I'm advocating a run at Tanaka in place of one of these two guys because a lot of his costs don't count against the luxury tax threshhold. The guy was 24-0 last year with an ERA in the 1.5 range ( I don't remember exactly what is was but let's just say extremely good ok ). What's wrong with that? Ridding ourselves a $13-$16 mil contract in Dempster, and using probably less money against the cap for Tanaka who might be the biggest starting pitching sign in years. Think Koji, with better stuff, and he's a starter.

    IF WE CAN'T do the Tanaka deal, I'd be all over Kuroda, who has put up some of the best numbers in baseball for the last 4 years in a row. I DON'T CARE if he ended last year badly. If you followed the Yankees last year he carried that team on his back and when their pen went completely down the tubes they kept him in games he had no business being in at the end of the year. And his numbers suffered as a result. Why not upgrade the rotation, on a 1 year deal no less with minimal risk, and hurt the yankees badly all at the same time. He's a proven commodity in the AL east. You guys should be doing jumping jacks over that idea. It's a no brainer.



    lol. U hate it when nobody agrees with you. O how I love it.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Ellsbury and Drew will not be back here in 2014.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I agree Moon. We want those picks...We need those picks! It was interesting that Henry said something to the effect that we will go for depth again this year and not spend big on long term contracts. I agree with that approach. We have been burned over and over with long term contracts. It seems that they rarely work out. As much as I like Ellsbury, I wouldn't go 5 years and over $100 mil with him. I don't think it's impossible that they would go up to the $100 mil point though. It's just not likely that they would get him for that I would think. Maybe other teams are wary also though. We don't know how high teh market will go if the Yanks and Dodgers have really pulled back, as it appears they might do this off season.

    Signing Ortiz short term so often kept him in shape and producing. 

    I think signing Kuroda on a 1 year deal or Tanaka up to 5 is prudent. Beltran at not more than 3. Stocking up on a solid RH hitting 4th OF also in addition to Gomes. Depth and flexibility is the key just as Henry said.

    Still, if as I suspect, the cost of players goes up starting in 2016 we might want to reconsider the approach by 2015.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Dempster is clearly the guy they want to trade but what do you do if nobody wants him, even if we pick up 1/2 his salary? I think that's what we are going to have to do if we want to move him but maybe he's worth $6-7 mil. In this instance, I'd probably keep him. So then you would have to look at trading other options like Peavy to clear up money to address other needs.

    Basically we have $32 mil to spend. Sometimes people seem to forget that. WE HAVE to trade someone who is expensive if we are going to have much money to spend for this team in 2014. Ergo, in my opinion, maybe a Dempster or Peavy who both have big contracts and maybe are not critical to our team going forward. 

    And I'm advocating a run at Tanaka in place of one of these two guys because a lot of his costs don't count against the luxury tax threshhold. The guy was 24-0 last year with an ERA in the 1.5 range ( I don't remember exactly what is was but let's just say extremely good ok ). What's wrong with that? Ridding ourselves a $13-$16 mil contract in Dempster, and using probably less money against the cap for Tanaka who might be the biggest starting pitching sign in years. Think Koji, with better stuff, and he's a starter.

    IF WE CAN'T do the Tanaka deal, I'd be all over Kuroda, who has put up some of the best numbers in baseball for the last 4 years in a row. I DON'T CARE if he ended last year badly. If you followed the Yankees last year he carried that team on his back and when their pen went completely down the tubes they kept him in games he had no business being in at the end of the year. And his numbers suffered as a result. Why not upgrade the rotation, on a 1 year deal no less with minimal risk, and hurt the yankees badly all at the same time. He's a proven commodity in the AL east. You guys should be doing jumping jacks over that idea. It's a no brainer.

     



    lol. U hate it when nobody agrees with you. O how I love it.

     



    I come here for fun, and then I have to deal with Bozos like you. Oh well, no big deal. Everyone here knows the situation.

     
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