A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    2014 Red Sox Player Payroll Budget (Luxury Tax Dollars)

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $6M Thornton (Club option or $1M buyout- count as $1M or +$5M)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub TOTAL: $121M +$5M option= $126M

     

    Estimated Arbitration (2013 salary):

    $4.5M  Bailey 3 of 3 ($4.1M)

    $2.3M  Morales 3 of 3 ($1.49M)

    $2.2M  Miller 3 of 3 ($1.48M)

    $1.5M  Tazawa 1 of 3 ($0.82M)

    $1.5M  Carp 1 of 3 ($0.51M)

    Estimated Arb Total: $12M

    Estimated Pre-Arb Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava, Villarreal, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Kalish, Bradley, Beato, Berry, Bogaerts, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:

    $145M no Thornton

    Or

    $150M with Thornton

     

    2014 FAs

    $13M Napoli (including $5M in bonuses)

    $9.5M Drew

    $9M Ellsbury

    $7.04M Hanrahan

    $4.5M Saltalamacchia 

    $1.5M McDonald

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    This article implies the luxury tax is $189m next year, it is correct?


    http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/proposition-189-yanks-challenge-stay-luxury-tax-threshold-article-1.1475960

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

     

    The issue I have is that I like the current makeup of the Sox OF, and it's still unclear what JBJ is going to bring, and who he displaces, let alone what Beltran would offer out there.

    An everyday OF of Beltran, JBJ, and Victorino is decent, but it's a lot of money, and leaves another hole when Beltran retires/leaves. I like Elsbury's age adn value going down the road.  

    Regardless, I think by going hard after McCann and letting JBJ play through the Sox could make some inroads to another pennant winning lineup by gettting a little protection for Ortiz without sitting a bat. 

    C McCann

    1b Middlebrooks

    2b Pedroia

    3b Bogaerts

    SS Drew or Escobar

    LF Nava

    CF JBJ

    RF Victorino

    DH Ortiz

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    And here's the 2013 Forbe's valuation and breakdown of inflows and outflows.

    http://www.forbes.com/teams/boston-red-sox/

    • Revenue2 : $336 M
    • Operating Income3 : $23.9 M
    • Debt/Value4 : 18%
    • Player Expenses5 : $190 M
    • Gate Receipts6 : $179 M

    The conventional wisdom is that inflows go up after a WS win. (Not always true).

    -Daf.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    I'm torn on Lester, it makes sense to trade him but it also makes sense to hold onto him as well.  He will likely get a big payday for everything he's done in his 20's and the Post season for 5-6 + years into his 30's.....and we all know what the track record there is. 

    Worst case scenario is Jon Walks after 2014 and we get a first round draft pick, and we should have some arms ready by then (if not sooner) e.g. Allen Webster, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes.

     




    To extend or not to extend? I would offer 4-80 tommorow. If he passes I probably play it out and let him walk next year. Some writer the other deay mentioned 180-210. LOL.  I would not trade him however. Its another Ellsbury situation.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I doubt they pay Salty big money, if they handed the job to Ross when it counted.

    I think Ellsbury and Drew will get bigger offers elsewhere.

     



    I agree, but Ross is going to be 37 years old catcher.  There is no way that he can catch over 80 games or like that next year.

    I would try to find a part time catcher to switch back and forth with Ross, and then by the time post season come, Ross can become a full time catcher thru the post season!!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

    This article implies the luxury tax is $189m next year, it is correct?


    http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/proposition-189-yanks-challenge-stay-luxury-tax-threshold-article-1.1475960



    I think it is about $189M, but you have to count the pension plan contribution as part of the payroll budget.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    1) I'd offer Ellsbury $75M/5. He will walk. We get a draft pick.

    (I'd make a play for Choo next , but would not pay what I think he will get.)

    Maybe we end up with DeJesus or Beltran as bridges to the kids.

     

    2) Next, I offer Napoli a $26M/2 year deal with PA incentives that can bring him to $30M/2. #rd year team option of $13M with $2M in PA incentives and a $2.5M buyout. Essentially, his deal is $28.5M/2 (meets QO criteria) or $39M/3 with incentives.

     

    3) If Napoli accepts his offer, I do not offer Drew a QO contract, unless I am very sure he will decline it. If Napoli declines the offer, I'd offer Drew something similar to Napoli's deal. I'd try and find a great inexpensive defensive SS as out utility IF'er.

     

    4) I'd offer Salty $33M/3 with a club option 4th year at $10M with a $1M buyout. Essentially, it's a $34M/3 deal. If he says no, I'd offer him the minimum 1 year QO and see what happens.

     

    5) If Salty declines, I'd look for a 1 year bridge to Vazquez, Lava, Swihart, Denny. I would not go after McCann.

     

    6) I'd try hard to get RP Mujica.

     

    I'd like to see this team for 2014:

    C: Salty/Ross

    1B: Napoli/Carp (Middy/Papi/Nava)

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Middy (Bogey)

    SS: Bogey/ B Ryan

    LF: Nava/Gomes (Carp)

    CF: Victorino/JBJ

    RF: Beltran (Victorino/Nava)

    SP: Lester, Buch, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Dempster (Morales) 

    RP: Uehara, Breslow, Mujica, Tazawa, Miller, Workman (Bailey)




    +1. Great and thoughtful post as always. I have not really thought about 2014 other than retaining this team.

    Thoughts:

    1) I would go $80-85M/5 on Ellsbury. Defensively, JBJ can fill his shoes, but offensively?? Anyway, I do not expect him to take this either but it is fair. We get a draft pick

    2) Nap - agreed. I would still give Nap a rest every few days and play Carp. but Naps and Gomes are the new idiots or the grease that will make the team run for another WS. By the way, K Morales is out as I would not give up a draft pick for him. Seattle already gave him a QO. I think Carp is ready for a bigger role next year.

    3) If not Nap, Drew? The real question mark is Middlebrooks. Bogaerts plays 3rd or SS next year. The guy has ice water in his veins, but I am not sure that he is as good defensively at SS as Drew. I was a closet Drew-doubter most of the season, because I prefered Iggy. But Drew handled the position very well. However, I can see your logic to offer Drew a contract and move Middy to first if Naps bolts.

    4) Salty - agreed. I would also give him a 3 year contract.

    RH BAT: Stanton

     

    I would offer the Marlins: Brentz, Nava, Lava, Doubront, Morales

    Before you say "No" to this deal, tell me where Lava plays? Marlins need a catcher that can hit. Doubront and Morales are both good and low cost. Brentz is another "where will he play?" I would try to keep JBJ for his defensive capability, but if needed, I would offer him instead of Brentz. I love Victorino, but his back means that he will be on the DL or resting for part of the season. Uncertain whether or not Stanton plays an entire season.

    My line-up

    C: Salty/Ross

    1B: Naps/Carp (Middy/Carp)

    2B: Pedey

    SS: Bogaerts (Drew)

    3B: Middy (Bogaerts)

    LF: Gomes/Carp/JBJ

    CF: Victorino/JBJ

    RF: Stanton/JBJ

    DH: Papi/Naps/Stanton

    SP: Lester, Lackey, Buch, Peavy, Dempster (Workman)

    I like the current RS team, but I don't think Ells will stay.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Let's say we come in at about $145M with no Thornton. I think the pension amount is about $10M. That leaves us about $25M to spend on free agents for 2014 alone. It will be hard to stay under the limit and fill 4-5 slots:

    CF

    C

    1B

    SS/3B

    RP

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Let's say we come in at about $145M with no Thornton. I think the pension amount is about $10M. That leaves us about $25M to spend on free agents for 2014 alone. It will be hard to stay under the limit and fill 4-5 slots:

    CF

    C

    1B

    SS/3B

    RP




    Seems like its 34 isn't it?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think a 3-5 hitter is paramount.  They have really C, SS or 3B, LF, and 1B to play with to get it.  Napoli proved he is not that guy.  There are no other 1B or SS FA's out there who fit that bill.  McCann might fit the bill, but is he really much better than Salty or Naps.  He is good, but how much better? I really think we are talking trade.

     

    Bait are the excess C(lavarnway), OF, JBJ, Kalish, Gomes, Carp, Nava, etc, a SP(dubront, buch, lackey, peavy, or dempster) plus a AAAA prospect or 2.  Could a Stanton be had?

    Middlebrooks, dubront, JBJ get it done?  It would have to be considered.  How about a wright or longoria for a similar package? 

     

    As for FA's, I like McCann, Beltran, Morneau

     

    C Mc Cann(ross)

    1B Morneau(papi, carp)

    2B Pedroia

    SS Bogarts

    3B Middlebrooks(or Wright/longoria)

    DH Papi

    LF Gomes/nava( or Stanton)

    CF Victorino

    RF Beltran

    SP Lester, Lackey, Buch, Peavy, Dempster(I think Dubront gets traded)

     

    I think we trade for a stud.  I think the stud plays left or 3B.  I think we sign 3 players, but I do not think Salty or Ellsbury are among them.  Drew, as much as I like him, makes no sense unless we trade middlebrooks, or switch him to 1b and even then for only 1 year as Cecchini will likely get a cup of coffee next year.  Our farm system needs to start filling in our holes, and those holes are a 3-5 hitter, a balanced OF, and a catcher.  Salty is a JAG.  Ross is a backup, lavarnway did not make the jump.  Ellsbury will follow the money away from us.  Time to trade for the bat, fill the holes in FA as we did this year, and wait for the farm to produce a couple of suprise contributers like they did this year.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Given the limitations in the salary cap and his health history, I still feel squeamish about putting all that money on Ells. Would rather have Salty/Naps for 3 and 2 years respectively than Ells for 5-6 years, but Ells will demand an even longer contract. Realistically, he is done with the Sox.

    I still think that we should try a 4:1 or 5:1 trade given RS performance. Nava is no slouch and I like him a lot, but so will other teams. But we have to get younger.


    If not Stanton, what about an aggressive package for Goldschmidt? What about Tulowitzki? Tulo is a core player, but Colorado was so far out this year, will they consider offers around a pitching package (Doubront/Morales)? (I know, Tulo is not "getting younger")

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    One of many things which worked in the Sox favor is they were able to win it all with all four of their top free agents underperforming with the bat. This isn't to say the offers to Ellsbury will be heavily depressed, but if he'd gone on a tear and shown power in the post season the offers would no doubt have gone way through the roof. 

    I do find it somewhat curious that there are supposedly teams out there with more money to spend than the Sox. I'm just curious mainly. Who are these teams which are going to throw money at Ellsbury, Drew, and Napoli? 
    I think Salty may have played himself out of a big payday. He showed he has a lot of trouble with top flight pitching (then again who doesn't). The bigger concern given his past history were his defensive miscues. It may just have been a quirk, but several bad or questionable plays bunched together might be a warning sign. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    2014 Red Sox Player Payroll Budget (Luxury Tax Dollars)

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $6M Thornton (Club option or $1M buyout- count as $1M or +$5M)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub TOTAL: $121M +$5M option= $126M

     

    Estimated Arbitration (2013 salary):

    $4.5M  Bailey 3 of 3 ($4.1M)

    $2.3M  Morales 3 of 3 ($1.49M)

    $2.2M  Miller 3 of 3 ($1.48M)

    $1.5M  Tazawa 1 of 3 ($0.82M)

    $1.5M  Carp 1 of 3 ($0.51M)

    Estimated Arb Total: $12M

    Estimated Pre-Arb Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava, Villarreal, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Kalish, Bradley, Beato, Berry, Bogaerts, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:

    $145M no Thornton

    Or

    $150M with Thornton

     

    2014 FAs

    $13M Napoli (including $5M in bonuses)

    $9.5M Drew

    $9M Ellsbury

    $7.04M Hanrahan

    $4.5M Saltalamacchia 

    $1.5M McDonald

     



    I think for luxury taxpurposes the AAV of lackeys contract might be half that.  And correct me if I'm wrong but do players always get arbitration raises?  becuse if that's not the case I could see Miller,Bailey costing us less.

    Going to do some research on this but I think we might have 8-9 million more than that to play with.  But it's at least 145 because I doubt Thortons option is exercised

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'm mystified by talk of trading Lester. Aren't people talking all the time about signing an ace? Top of the rotation guys who are proven in Boston and the postseason cost money correct? 

    My opinion is guys who have shown the toughness to play well in Boston need to stay in Boston.  This includes Ellsbury. 

    My current priorities are.

    1. Resign Ellsbury. Bradley had several chances to impess and didn't get it done. He also has less power than Ellsbury and is no where close to being the same kind of threat on the basepaths. 

    2. Get Buchholtz fit and healthy. He needs to strenghten his legs and do some upper body work. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The Sox should make Qualifying Offers to all four major free agents (Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, Napoli, Drew).  Really, what is the risk?  That they bring back a championship caliber team?

     

    Ellsbury will very likely move on to greener (literally) pastures.  Saltalamacchia might as well, as he is the free agent predicted to get the most unreasonable contract, and his agent might be benchmarking Miguel Montero’s deal (5 yrs / $60mill).  Personally, he is the most expendable.  His defense, while improved, still is not that good.  His hitting was carried by a BABIP of .372, which in the wake of a .330 xBABIP means regression is more than likely. If Satly did not get a QO, I would not be disappointed.  Just fishing for a draft pick.

     

    If Drew returns, Middlebrooks might be expendable.  If Napoli returns, the status quo is reached.  Both players COULD accept the QO, or both could potentially be signed to multiyear deals.  The mere fact that they received a QO will probably limit their appeal with teams that are more cognizant of their respective draft budgets, making them easier to sign.

     

    The word this offseason will be non-tender.  I would not be surprised if the following players were non-tendered off the 40-man: Dan Butler, Steven Wright, Brandon Snyder, Andrew Bailey, Andrew Miller, and Ryan Kalish.  Some are obvious inclusions.  Also, I think Bailey is a legitimate non-tender candidate because the 14IP he gives won’t be worth the money.  Miller’s status probably depends on his health as well, so he is less likely. It was a foot injury, after all.  At some point, they also might simply cut ties with Kalish.  Butler is likely is the Sox get another starting catcher; why have 5 catchers on the 40-man?  That’s too many.  Syder is gone and we all know it.  While they might keep Wright, he really gave them very little reason to keep him over some of the other borderline starting candidates like Chris Hernandez or Keith Couch.  I hope they don’t keep Wright and lose Hernandez.

     

    The rotation is overcrowded, and one player is likely to be moved.  I think the most likely candidates are Dempster and Peavy, for reasons related to either performance or injury history.  Using one of a SP or Middlebrooks (some assumptions about his availability, obviously), the Sox might be able to get a new catcher from the Angels, who need both SP and 3B, and have a surplus of catching.  Hank Conger for Middlebrooks makes sense for both teams.  The Angels have not had a real 3B since Chone Figgins.  Both Conger and Middlebrooks have similar service time, and are roughly the same age.  And while Conger has never lived up to his offensive hype, he has become a solid defensive catcher.  Fangraphs ranks him as the second-best pitch framer in MLB, behind Yasmani Grandal.  Iannetta is not as good defensively and really not much of a hitter.  He does have a tendency to work counts, take walks, and clog the basepaths.  Which makes him a perfect fit.  Iannetta is owed about $11mill over the next 2 years, so a potential swap for Peavy or Dempster makes some sense.  That Iannetta grew up in RI as a Sox fan means nothing.  Also meaning nothing is foolish fans who point out “So we dealt Iglesias for Iannetta?”  Anyone making this comment needs to be kicked in the groin with such force that  their offspring are born with footprints on their skulls.

     

    Bradley is a potential CF option, and really, a very likely one.  The Sox probably need to add another OF, since Bradley is inexperienced and might not hit the ground running, and Victorino is not getting any younger.  I would like to see the Sox get a certain OF from the Miami Marlins with surprising right-handed pop.  And, no, not that guy.  I am talking about Justin Ruggiano, who can play all three OF positions, can probably be had for 40-man overspill (Almanzar and Carpenter?), and is a better hitter than you realize.    His HR/FB rate away from Miami is roughly 20% over the last 2 seasons.  For comparison, Stanton’s is roughly 26% in that timeframe.   In a role backing up Bradley and Victorino and even the LF tandem, if Ruggiano can get 240PA he should be able to hit about 14 HRs, more than Mike Carp produced in that same role.  If he hits like that, the Sox might have to find a way to get him more involved.  Defensively, he is average at best.  But if he took over LF, the Sox might have the makings of a dangerous defensive unit.  Miami has little need for Ruggiano, who is, at minimum, fourth on their OF depth chart if they decide the Yelich-Marinick-Stanton OF is the wave of the immediate future.  And, even then, they still have to figure out how to get Marcell Ozuna involved.

     

    Speaking of Carp, I like him, but he might have no place in 2014, especially if they get an OF capable of backing up CF,  Ruggiano or not.  This might be a “sell high” opportunity, and maybe a chance to rationalize it by thinking the Sox are “doing the nice thing” by finding him a better opportunity.  I suggest Carp to the 1B-free Milwaukee Brewers for A-ball pitcher Damien Magnifico, mostly because that might be the coolest name in minor league ball since Wonderful Terrific Mons III.  He sounds like a Spanish cult legend, like Zorro.   Say it out loud and you will agree– Damien Magnifico.    Now try it with a Spanish accent.  Awesome or what?   Now, with that same accent,  say out loud “My name [long pause] is Damien Magnifico.”  That might be the coolest thing you have ever said.   And even with all that, he is a U Oklahoma product with a 100mph fastball and some serious control issues, so there is some baseball logic behind this.  Hate the Nuke Laloosh-esque control, but  I figure it is easier to teach a guy to throw a strike than to teach him to throw 100mph.  He’s worth a look as a project.  Milwaukee probably wouldn’t agree to this trade, undoubtedly because they also really, really like the name of Damien Magnifico.  They might like Carp, though, although he also potentially fits in Minnesota and Pittsburgh, both of whom have very deep farm systems, unlike Milwaukee.  Or maybe Carp for Ruggiano?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to patrickford's comment:

    1. Bradley had several chances to impess and didn't get it done. He also has less power than Ellsbury

     





    Actually, Jackie Bradley Jr. has more power then Jacoby Ellsbury. Potentially a lot more power.

    In the minor leagues, JBJ had a career slugging percentage of .471 and a .469 this year in AAA. And he has a career ISO power number of .174 and it was nearly .200 this season. Ellsbury only had a career slugging of .426 and a AAA slugging of .380 and a career ISO power number of .113.

    The numbers are not even close. Even in the big leagues for their career, JBJ has a better ISO Power number both this year and in their careers. JBJ just didn't make enough contact and get enough hits to have a better slugging.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to patrickford's comment:

    1. Bradley had several chances to impess and didn't get it done. He also has less power than Ellsbury

     





    Actually, Jackie Bradley Jr. has more power then Jacoby Ellsbury. Potentially a lot more power.

    In the minor leagues, JBJ had a career slugging percentage of .471 and a .469 this year in AAA. And he has a career ISO power number of .174 and it was nearly .200 this season. Ellsbury only had a career slugging of .426 and a AAA slugging of .380 and a career ISO power number of .113.

    The numbers are not even close. Even in the big leagues for their career, JBJ has a better ISO Power number both this year and in their careers. JBJ just didn't make enough contact and get enough hits to have a better slugging.




    Not to mention, he has not had "several chances" to impress.  He had 107PA spread out over 1 season.

     

    For compaison, Bradley had a .617OPS in 107PA in his first season. In his first season, Dustin Pedroia had 98PA anda .585OPS.   And Pedroia had all his action in the alst week of August and September, the month of facing minor league call up pitchers...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Could we get Youk back for cheap? What are the chances of that happening? As a Utility/ PH. I think the lineup missed his pressence in the post season. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Let's say we come in at about $145M with no Thornton. I think the pension amount is about $10M. That leaves us about $25M to spend on free agents for 2014 alone. It will be hard to stay under the limit and fill 4-5 slots:

    CF

    C

    1B

    SS/3B

    RP




    Seems like its 34 isn't it?



    Right, about $35M not $25M.

    We can cut Bailey loose ... ~$37M.

    We can maybe trade Dempster for an A-ball player and be at about $50M to spend.

    Maybe we can restructureLackey's deal from $16.5M in 2014 and $0.5M in 2015 to maybe something like $8.75M x 2 to save us about $8M for 2014, but add about $8M to 2015. This would bring us to about $58M to spend.

    That gets us just about all of our players back or close to it:

    Ellsbury $18M x ?

    Napoli $14M x ?

    Drew $13M x ?

    Salty $12M x ?

    but nothing left over for anything else.

    (Note: I am not saying to bring everyone back, but we could by dumping Dempster and Bailey,and redoing Lackey's deal.)

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think for luxury taxpurposes the AAV of lackeys contract might be half that.  And correct me if I'm wrong but do players always get arbitration raises?  becuse if that's not the case I could see Miller,Bailey costing us less.

    Lackey's option year was and will not be figured into his AVV.

     

    Going to do some research on this but I think we might have 8-9 million more than that to play with.  But it's at least 145 because I doubt Thortons option is exercised.

    I think my arb numbers are pretty close. Plus here minus there.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to notin's comment:

    The Sox should make Qualifying Offers to all four major free agents (Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, Napoli, Drew).  Really, what is the risk?  That they bring back a championship caliber team?

    The Sox do not mind big but short deals, so I think you are right.

     

    Ellsbury will very likely move on to greener (literally) pastures.  Saltalamacchia might as well, as he is the free agent predicted to get the most unreasonable contract, and his agent might be benchmarking Miguel Montero’s deal (5 yrs / $60mill).  Personally, he is the most expendable.  His defense, while improved, still is not that good.  His hitting was carried by a BABIP of .372, which in the wake of a .330 xBABIP means regression is more than likely. If Satly did not get a QO, I would not be disappointed.  Just fishing for a draft pick.

    I mentioned this before, and I'm not sure you responded to it: Salty's LD% rose considerably from 2012 to 2013. I think it came to about 21 or 22 more linedrives in 2013. He also walked more. How much of that factored into his big OBP rise as compared to the luck implied by the BAbip regression argument?

     

    If Drew returns, Middlebrooks might be expendable.  If Napoli returns, the status quo is reached.  Both players COULD accept the QO, or both could potentially be signed to multiyear deals.  The mere fact that they received a QO will probably limit their appeal with teams that are more cognizant of their respective draft budgets, making them easier to sign.

    We may try to sign them to longer deals at less than the QO per year number ($14.1M?), and if they say no, then go with the 1 year QO and put the draft pick on the burner.

     

    The word this offseason will be non-tender.  I would not be surprised if the following players were non-tendered off the 40-man: Dan Butler, Steven Wright, Brandon Snyder, Andrew Bailey, Andrew Miller, and Ryan Kalish.  Some are obvious inclusions.  Also, I think Bailey is a legitimate non-tender candidate because the 14IP he gives won’t be worth the money.  Miller’s status probably depends on his health as well, so he is less likely. It was a foot injury, after all.  At some point, they also might simply cut ties with Kalish.  Butler is likely is the Sox get another starting catcher; why have 5 catchers on the 40-man?  That’s too many.  Syder is gone and we all know it.  While they might keep Wright, he really gave them very little reason to keep him over some of the other borderline starting candidates like Chris Hernandez or Keith Couch.  I hope they don’t keep Wright and lose Hernandez.

    I think Miller comes back, but the others won't be missed.

     

    The rotation is overcrowded, and one player is likely to be moved.  I think the most likely candidates are Dempster and Peavy, for reasons related to either performance or injury history.  Using one of a SP or Middlebrooks (some assumptions about his availability, obviously), the Sox might be able to get a new catcher from the Angels, who need both SP and 3B, and have a surplus of catching.  Hank Conger for Middlebrooks makes sense for both teams.  The Angels have not had a real 3B since Chone Figgins.  Both Conger and Middlebrooks have similar service time, and are roughly the same age.  And while Conger has never lived up to his offensive hype, he has become a solid defensive catcher.  Fangraphs ranks him as the second-best pitch framer in MLB, behind Yasmani Grandal.  Iannetta is not as good defensively and really not much of a hitter.  He does have a tendency to work counts, take walks, and clog the basepaths.  Which makes him a perfect fit.  Iannetta is owed about $11mill over the next 2 years, so a potential swap for Peavy or Dempster makes some sense.  That Iannetta grew up in RI as a Sox fan means nothing.  Also meaning nothing is foolish fans who point out “So we dealt Iglesias for Iannetta?”  Anyone making this comment needs to be kicked in the groin with such force that  their offspring are born with footprints on their skulls.

    Good suggestions, but I'm thinking Middy might be worth more.

    Someone here has been crying for Trumbo, who I do not see as any better than Napoli, but what do you think of something like Middy & Dempster for Conger and Trumbo type deal? (I know you shy away from multiplayer deal suggestions.)

     

    Bradley is a potential CF option, and really, a very likely one.  The Sox probably need to add another OF, since Bradley is inexperienced and might not hit the ground running, and Victorino is not getting any younger.  I would like to see the Sox get a certain OF from the Miami Marlins with surprising right-handed pop.  And, no, not that guy.  I am talking about Justin Ruggiano, who can play all three OF positions, can probably be had for 40-man overspill (Almanzar and Carpenter?), and is a better hitter than you realize.    His HR/FB rate away from Miami is roughly 20% over the last 2 seasons.  For comparison, Stanton’s is roughly 26% in that timeframe.   In a role backing up Bradley and Victorino and even the LF tandem, if Ruggiano can get 240PA he should be able to hit about 14 HRs, more than Mike Carp produced in that same role.  If he hits like that, the Sox might have to find a way to get him more involved.  Defensively, he is average at best.  But if he took over LF, the Sox might have the makings of a dangerous defensive unit.  Miami has little need for Ruggiano, who is, at minimum, fourth on their OF depth chart if they decide the Yelich-Marinick-Stanton OF is the wave of the immediate future.  And, even then, they still have to figure out how to get Marcell Ozuna involved.

    Good idea.

    Can you see us going after Choo?  Beltran? DeJesus?

     

    Speaking of Carp, I like him, but he might have no place in 2014, especially if they get an OF capable of backing up CF,  Ruggiano or not.  This might be a “sell high” opportunity, and maybe a chance to rationalize it by thinking the Sox are “doing the nice thing” by finding him a better opportunity.  I suggest Carp to the 1B-free Milwaukee Brewers for A-ball pitcher Damien Magnifico, mostly because that might be the coolest name in minor league ball since Wonderful Terrific Mons III.  He sounds like a Spanish cult legend, like Zorro.   Say it out loud and you will agree– Damien Magnifico.    Now try it with a Spanish accent.  Awesome or what?   Now, with that same accent,  say out loud “My name [long pause] is Damien Magnifico.”  That might be the coolest thing you have ever said.   And even with all that, he is a U Oklahoma product with a 100mph fastball and some serious control issues, so there is some baseball logic behind this.  Hate the Nuke Laloosh-esque control, but  I figure it is easier to teach a guy to throw a strike than to teach him to throw 100mph.  He’s worth a look as a project.  Milwaukee probably wouldn’t agree to this trade, undoubtedly because they also really, really like the name of Damien Magnifico.  They might like Carp, though, although he also potentially fits in Minnesota and Pittsburgh, both of whom have very deep farm systems, unlike Milwaukee.  Or maybe Carp for Ruggiano?

    With Nava, Papi and Middy able to play 1B, and almost anyone able to play LF, I can see Carp being dealt.

    If Napoli walks and we don't replace him, then a Middy-Carp 1b combo might work out well.




     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    As we look forward to 2014, I have to say something about 2013...

    Perhaps what surprised me the most about our finish to 2013 was that no player really had a shocking season.

    Yes, Uehara had the best WHIP ever, but he had 2 really good seasons before 2013.

    Papi had a great year, but if you prorate 2012 to 600 PAs, then 2014 was no surprise.

    Pedey, Ellsbury, Middlebrooks, Bailey, Hanrahan, Miller, Morales and Aceves actually  fell below half to most people's expectations (some due to injury).

    Salty, Nava, Breslow, Lester, Lackey, Iggy (while here) and Doubront did marginally better than expected, and Buch's injury cut his numbers down. Non were shockingly great.

    The winter additions:

    Carp was probably the most shocking surprise, but had under 250 PAs.

    Gomes did not give us what we expected vs LHPs and his .771 OPS was under most projections, but he did bring a lot of intangibles. Nothing shocking.

    Dempster certainly did not bring us more than expected, and on paper was not worth the contract amount.

    Drew only played in 124 games and barely got over 500 PAs, His defense shocked me, but not everyone here. Overall, he did not produce much more than expectations.

    Napoli broke his record for career PAs in a season by 68. This was a bit shocking after the injury discovery. His career high RBIs was not shocking. His OPS was below his career OPS. Not shocking.

    Victorino might have shocked some of us on defense, but he really shouldn't have. He's been a great defensive player for years. His fragility was in question last winter, and that did become an issue this year. He only played in 122 games and missed time in the WS. His .801 OPS was much better than 2012, but was 46 points belwo his 2011 number, so it's hard to say his 2013 season was shockingly good.

    Uehara was awesome, but his numbers in 2012 were some of the best of all time as well, and his 2010 season was very very good as well. Shocking? I guess so, but he wasn't even our closer until the end of June!

    The season came down to everyone contributing, and nobody except maybe Middlebrooks having a shockingly bad season, though he still hit 17 Hrs and 49 RBIs in just 94 games.

    Great coaching, managing, team chemistry, and dogged determination all came together to put us over the top. We had the numbers on paper. This year was not a fluke. We did not win, because other teams made mistakes. We won because we were the best team in MLB. We had the best record in MLB playing in the toughest division in MLB agkainst the toughest schedule of any playoff team. We had the best run differential. We had great home-road splits. Our rotation matched up well with even the best in MLB, and our 1-2 punch of Breslow and Uehara had perhaps the best 2nd half numbers in MLB history. Our middle men held their own, particularly Tazawa and Workman. Our bench carried us at times: Iggy, Carp, Nava, Ross, Bogey and more.

    Great team effort from a great team!

     

    Thank you Red Sox!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Want to respond to some ideas here tonight.

    Lester drove me crazy this summer but this guy in the post season was someone else.  How could we trade him?

    I know Doobie would look good in a trade, low money, etc. but I swear to all here he's on the cusp  of being another Lester.  Other teams drool over guys like this.  Look how natural and smooth and crisp he looked in WS innings...

    I'm all for throwing Dempster, Thornton, or Peavey into a trade.  How about Buch?  He is scaring me.  Loaded with talent but always with a mysterious injury.  Doctors/RS said he should/could have pitched through the summer when he said he was hurt.  Cleared to play, pitched fairly well, then said he couldn't take his WS start, then pitched (4) and players said "He did his best."  Does anyone here know what this is all about?  My point is if your number two pitcher is talented but can't pitch half the time, is he really a #2 pitcher?

    Sometimes Moon says stuff that's so amazing you wonder why no one else had thought of it.  Why  are our HR studs both 1st basemen--it does hurt us vs.NL.  So--I'm not for any trades for a slugging 1st baseman...

    Notin, I love it when guys start thinking about trades that make sense for both teams.  Some great thoughts there.

    Hey, JBJ is just a kid and like somebody said above he didn't get lots of extended play time.  Throw him in next year and by playoff time he'll be doing things of a different set than ELLS that will help us win--if that's the way we go.  I don' think ELLS will be back even if we want him back. He was the juice at the top that made us run in season, but what great thing did he do in the WS for example?  Not much hitting against great pitching, not much bunting when he wasn't hitting, not any stealing against a great catcher, good defense but he did botch up one play, right?  That escape from the rundown was a hilarious moment for me.  I am not knocking him,  but we can survive without him.

    We evidently have lots of third base talent coming.  I 'm not sure if anyone is sure what we have in Middy.  I lean with those who would put him in a trade.

    I want to keep developing Wright.  The future potential of the multiple ways a KB pitcher could help is worth the wait.

    I'm ok with trading Carp or Nava but not both.  I love the idea of Youk coming back BUT he would have to be in top health, you know that line about "you can't really ever return home" and is this really realistic?  I 'm thinking no...I think we should get a stud HR guy for 3rd, play Bogey at SS.

    Don't put Workman in any trade, no, no, no...

     

     

     

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

     

    Ellsbury will very likely move on to greener (literally) pastures.  Saltalamacchia might as well, as he is the free agent predicted to get the most unreasonable contract, and his agent might be benchmarking Miguel Montero’s deal (5 yrs / $60mill).  Personally, he is the most expendable.  His defense, while improved, still is not that good.  His hitting was carried by a BABIP of .372, which in the wake of a .330 xBABIP means regression is more than likely. If Satly did not get a QO, I would not be disappointed.  Just fishing for a draft pick.

    I mentioned this before, and I'm not sure you responded to it: Salty's LD% rose considerably from 2012 to 2013. I think it came to about 21 or 22 more linedrives in 2013. He also walked more. How much of that factored into his big OBP rise as compared to the luck implied by the BAbip regression argument?

     

     







    Saltalamacchia's increased line drive rate was a factor in his xBABIP (Expected Batting Average on Balls in Play).  Even though he hit the ball better this year, he still overperformed. 

     

    Regression is more than likely for Saltalamacchia next season...

     
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