A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    There was an interesting comment by Farrel today on the radio, as was reported on soxprospects this afternoon. Something to the effect of JBJ being maybe in CF if they have more power from the corner OF's. What does that mean do you think?

    Beltran?

    Choo? 

    A trade option?

    What does he mean by that. Was it a slip?




    I think he is saying Bradley does not have much power.  Really, I would not look to deep into anything Farrell says right now.  Some of us are too eager, and are starting to pounce on every syllable the man utters as if there is an inkling of the future hidden in it. Decode!! Decode!!

     

    Even if it as a hint (and it isn't), don't bother trying to figure it out.  Their defintion of major move and yours probably differ, and by alot.  Remember last year, Cherington made an annoucnement there was one more major move to be made.  He went out and signed Uehara, and the news broke.  And half the board was saying "Great.  Whatever.  Now where is this other major deal?  Did we get Stanton?"

     

    The biggest hint you will get right now is that very little if anything will happen before Thanksgiving.  Especially now that we have already seen our annual mid-November blockbuster trade.  Sit back :)

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    _

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I like the Morse option. In place of Napoli. He probably costs about 1/2 as much and might put up comparable numbers in Fenway. Tough to say for sure of course but I would certainly talk to the scouts and look at the option.

    One thing we have learned is that Seattle is the place power hitters go to die. Often when they are rescued from there they blossom.

    For what it's worth, this season only the Baltimore Orioles hit more homeruns than the Seattle Mariners.

    Michael Morse, who will 32 years old on Opening Day 2013, has posted a WAR* above 0.4 only once in nine MLB seasons. This year Morse posted a WAR of a negative 1.6 in 88 games.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3035&position=OF

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    No doubt tell him to not steal bases and I agree his defensive metrics are a concern in the last 2 years but he was an above average RF before that. And he's clearly not appropriate in CF for us and may even be primarily a LF in Fenway. I agree with all of that.

    Which to a degree impedes his potential big money options. He's not projected to be as expensive as Ellsbury. 

    There are substantial positives though. He creams RH pitching. He got on base last year at a .420 plus basis which fits right in with the Redsox grind em out approach. He has the ability to play wall ball like few others in baseball. He's a "Pocket Papi" in the same way many countries had "pocket battleships" which packed a lot of punch with minimal displacement!

    I'd like to know what happened to his range. Defensively he fell off the end of the earth in range, while he was a decent defensive OF before that. To a degree I think it may just be a bad year in 2012 and playing out of position in 2013.

    The whole split issue is often just sample size. It is amazing how such things can just fluctuate over the course of a guys career. The bottom like is his overall numbers. If anything, in the Redsox situation of having a lot of depth, I actually like guys with a lot of split. They platoon better for the money. That may actually be one of the keys to boston's recent success.

    Who knows what happens. I'm going out on a limb here. Sometimes I'm wrong but I think there is a real good chance Choo is our guy. Maybe a 25% chance even. If I had to pick one guy he would be it. He is a good fit in Fenway. They may end up trading Nava as a result but he's a good fit.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I like the Morse option. In place of Napoli. He probably costs about 1/2 as much and might put up comparable numbers in Fenway. Tough to say for sure of course but I would certainly talk to the scouts and look at the option.

    One thing we have learned is that Seattle is the place power hitters go to die. Often when they are rescued from there they blossom.



    You like Morse more than Hart?



    I actually do. Both are finalist in the Moose of the Month club though!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Being from Maine, I like Moose!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    This sums it up pretty well. He and Carp/Nava could be a decent low cost platoon at 1st and he can at least play some in the OF and at DH if necessary. He may cost as little as $3-$4 mil on a 1 year deal:

    http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-rumors-offseason-hot-stove/2013/11/20/5124266/yankees-free-agent-target-michael-morse?ref=fangraphs

    Look at 2010 - 2012, when he wasn't injured as compared to 2013, when he was:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3035&position=OF

    No doubt he is defensively challenged though. He's a platoon guy for us but we need RH power bats we can slot in the lineup against LH pitching. The guy hits RH as well as LH pitching. If we could hide him defensively he could be a decent platoon contributor. And he might even emerge as better than expected if he rebounds well from last year's injuries.

    Here is the thing about Morse: He has played in parks which do not help his game. The Nationals ball park is not a HR friendly locale and neither is Seattle. And defensively both parks hurt his defensive numbers as he has been used primarily as an OF. Both parks have large OF areas to cover.

    He's a reserve. I'm not asking him to be more than that.

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Started to post something from fox sports but as with everything they do they couldn't get the facts right.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Moon, I corrected the 2013 WAR for Jason Vargas before you posted.

    The key is the projected production going forward for 36-year-old Ryan Dempster and 30-year-old Jason Vargas. Steamer is the only publicly available projection I've found and it suggests that Dempster would cost 65 percent more for less than half the production. Other projections might tell a different story.

    I've now added the projected number of games and starts, which I admit slant the WAR projections in favor of Vargas.



    I would project slightly better numbers for Vargas in 2014 as well, but I ask you, how much would Vargas make for a one year deal?

    $10-12M?

    If Vargas is worth $12M/1, then Dempster is probably worth $9-11M to somebody out there desperate for a SP.

    I'd love to trade Dempster and only have to pay $1-3M of his deal. That extra $10-12M could help us fill a big hole.




    While I agree Dempsters $ could go a long way toward filling in some pieces on this team. I think losing those 170+ IP is very difficult to do. With a rotation that already includes Peavy and Buchholz  in it, giving up Dempster just for more financial flexibility could be very dangerous. Would anyone here be really surprised if Buchholz weren't ready at start of 2014 season? Look at all the years RS won a WS title, and the starting pitching was a very big reason why, usually if starters are strong bullpen is equally strong = fewer IP. If you trade Dempster and Buchholz and Peavy miss their usual amount of time that 3 holes you now need to fill. While I like the promise of Workman/Raunado/Webster is there anyone here that would be willing to bet the house that any of those 3 would be good for 170 IP at MLB level. Not me. I keep Dempster around even if it is an expensive insurance policy. Hopefully the kids continue developing and prove to be ready for 2015 season, just don't think they're there just yet. Bring Naps back at 1b [2yrs] and JBJ CF / WMB 3B / Boegarts SS and lets go RS in 2014! We stay under 189 to boot! Remember its all about the PITCHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    "Almost any contending team could use Dempster, but I agree, not many fit the salary demands.

    I think we may see some very marginal FA SP'ers get some hefty salaries as desperation sets in. Vargas could end up being a steal by future 2013-2014 winter standards.

    Without any health issues, except age, some GM may surpise us with the numbers offered."

    If you can look farther than his ERA, I had posted a number of threads looking at his starts and about how his record easily could have been better with just a bit of luck. I think he could post a good record in any number of divisions, and could easily be seen as being worth $10m in the marketplace.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Here is the thing about Morse: He has played in parks which do not help his game. The Nationals ball park is not a HR friendly locale and neither is Seattle. And defensively both parks hurt his defensive numbers as he has been used primarily as an OF. Both parks have large OF areas to cover.

    He's a reserve. I'm not asking him to be more than that.

    For what it's worth, this season more homeruns were hit at Seattle's Safeco Field than at Boston's Fenway Park despite the disparity in each home team's overall hitting:

    http://www.hittrackeronline.com/stadiums.php




     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I know this is going to be blasphemy, and I don't whole heartedly want to push this BUT when weighing out long term vs. short term and maximizing value NOW would probably be the best time to trade someone like Jon Lester.  We could of got ROY, power hitting Will Meyers for him last year and I think his value is even higher this year. 

    Just wanted to throw that out there.....be gentle. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I know this is going to be blasphemy, and I don't whole heartedly want to push this BUT when weighing out long term vs. short term and maximizing value NOW would probably be the best time to trade someone like Jon Lester.  We could of got ROY, power hitting Will Meyers for him last year and I think his value is even higher this year. 

    Just wanted to throw that out there.....be gentle. 



    Of course if we had traded Lester for Meyers there's a very good chance we wouldn't be champions right now.  A team like the Red Sox that's wealthy and trying to win championships is usually not behooved to trade a 29 year old borderline ace like Lester for a prospect - unless they approach him about an extension and his demands are deemed out of range. 

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I know this is going to be blasphemy, and I don't whole heartedly want to push this BUT when weighing out long term vs. short term and maximizing value NOW would probably be the best time to trade someone like Jon Lester.  We could of got ROY, power hitting Will Meyers for him last year and I think his value is even higher this year. 

    Just wanted to throw that out there.....be gentle. 



    Of course if we had traded Lester for Meyers there's a very good chance we wouldn't be champions right now.  A team like the Red Sox that's wealthy and trying to win championships is usually not behooved to trade a 29 year old borderline ace like Lester for a prospect - unless they approach him about an extension and his demands are deemed out of range. 

     



    Thats why I'm saying NOW may, or may not be that time.  In hindsight, yes we won the world series and I'm amazingly insanely super happy about that.  But if I was the G.M. I would weigh my decisions on the basis of 10 years worth of outcomes and not 1 year.

    Think of it from this perspective, lets say Jon Lester is a 20/Yr pitcher who will get 5-7 years.   We should hypothetically be able to get back someone in the same class as Jon Lester if we signed another F.A. starter with that money, correct?  Now if we traded Jon Lester, we could use that extension money to replace him +get multiple high ceiling prospects.   

    Like I said, I'm not going to defend this position into the ground as if we HAVE to trade him and there is no other way and all who don't agree with me are super stupid (softyesq) But what I am saying is......a good argument could be made to move Lester. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I know this is going to be blasphemy, and I don't whole heartedly want to push this BUT when weighing out long term vs. short term and maximizing value NOW would probably be the best time to trade someone like Jon Lester.  We could of got ROY, power hitting Will Meyers for him last year and I think his value is even higher this year. 

    Just wanted to throw that out there.....be gentle. 




    Lester will be a solid starter through age 35

    Corey Hart is a much better option than Mike Morse.

    Dempster is much more important to this team than people give him credit for.

    Choo is NOT a good option for his price. Id rather pay Ells that $$ if we even go there.

    The Sox are not going to have a bunch of crazy platoons and shift guys all over the field.

    Vic is our best RF option. Why move a GG RF'er, especially in Fenway.

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I know this is going to be blasphemy, and I don't whole heartedly want to push this BUT when weighing out long term vs. short term and maximizing value NOW would probably be the best time to trade someone like Jon Lester.  We could of got ROY, power hitting Will Meyers for him last year and I think his value is even higher this year. 

    Just wanted to throw that out there.....be gentle. 

    Lester will be a solid starter through age 35

    This issue is how much will it cost to keep Jon Lester on a contract through his age 35 season (and still avoid luxury tax problems).

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I know this is going to be blasphemy, and I don't whole heartedly want to push this BUT when weighing out long term vs. short term and maximizing value NOW would probably be the best time to trade someone like Jon Lester.  We could of got ROY, power hitting Will Meyers for him last year and I think his value is even higher this year. 

    Just wanted to throw that out there.....be gentle. 

    Lester will be a solid starter through age 35

    This issue is how much will it cost to keep Jon Lester on a contract through his age 35 season (and still avoid luxury tax problems).




    I think you extend him after the season starts to avoid that issue. Hes making 13M this year, so If they extended him lets say at 18-20M for 5 years with a 6th option before the season, the AAV wouldnt go up all that much, would it?

    I realize its not my $$, but even if they did go over my about 10M this year it wouldnt cost that much and they would reset next year with a few deals coming off the books.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comments:

    [/QUOTE]


    Lester will be a solid starter through age 35

    Corey Hart is a much better option than Mike Morse.

    Dempster is much more important to this team than people give him credit for.

    Choo is NOT a good option for his price. Id rather pay Ells that $$ if we even go there.

    The Sox are not going to have a bunch of crazy platoons and shift guys all over the field.

    Vic is our best RF option. Why move a GG RF'er, especially in Fenway.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    I think you extend him (Lester)  after the season starts to avoid that issue. Hes making 13M this year, so If they extended him lets say at 18-20M for 5 years with a 6th option before the season, the AAV wouldnt go up all that much, would it?

    I realize its not my $$, but even if they did go over my about 10M this year it wouldnt cost that much and they would reset next year with a few deals coming off the books.

    [/QUOTE]

    Southpaw is on a roll.  That's two solid posts in 10 minutes. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comments:




    Lester will be a solid starter through age 35

    Corey Hart is a much better option than Mike Morse.

    Dempster is much more important to this team than people give him credit for.

    Choo is NOT a good option for his price. Id rather pay Ells that $$ if we even go there.

    The Sox are not going to have a bunch of crazy platoons and shift guys all over the field.

    Vic is our best RF option. Why move a GG RF'er, especially in Fenway.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    I think you extend him (Lester)  after the season starts to avoid that issue. Hes making 13M this year, so If they extended him lets say at 18-20M for 5 years with a 6th option before the season, the AAV wouldnt go up all that much, would it?

    I realize its not my $$, but even if they did go over my about 10M this year it wouldnt cost that much and they would reset next year with a few deals coming off the books.



    Southpaw is on a roll.  That's two solid posts in 10 minutes. 




Thanks 5! Wink

 
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Here is the thing about Morse: He has played in parks which do not help his game. The Nationals ball park is not a HR friendly locale and neither is Seattle. And defensively both parks hurt his defensive numbers as he has been used primarily as an OF. Both parks have large OF areas to cover.

    He's a reserve. I'm not asking him to be more than that.

    For what it's worth, this season more homeruns were hit at Seattle's Safeco Field than at Boston's Fenway Park despite the disparity in each home team's overall hitting:

    http://www.hittrackeronline.com/stadiums.php




     



    I didn't realize they had brought the fences in last off season Hill. Thanks for the info!

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    I know this is going to be blasphemy, and I don't whole heartedly want to push this BUT when weighing out long term vs. short term and maximizing value NOW would probably be the best time to trade someone like Jon Lester.  We could of got ROY, power hitting Will Meyers for him last year and I think his value is even higher this year. 

    Just wanted to throw that out there.....be gentle. 

     




    Lester will be a solid starter through age 35

     

    Corey Hart is a much better option than Mike Morse.

    Dempster is much more important to this team than people give him credit for.

    Choo is NOT a good option for his price. Id rather pay Ells that $$ if we even go there.

    The Sox are not going to have a bunch of crazy platoons and shift guys all over the field.

    Vic is our best RF option. Why move a GG RF'er, especially in Fenway.

     

     



    We can disagree...no problem. Hart hasn't played much in 2 years though right. And he probably costs more. And would expect to be the starter. To a degree that last part is an issue. Do we want Hart against RH pitchers also, as we did with Napoli? I'd prefer Carp against RH pitching.

    I don't see how anyone could look at Choo's record of consistent success and his hit chart and not think he could help us. He would have hit .300 last year if he played in Fenway, with a ton of doubles and HR. They may well chose another approach but if I had to put my finger on the trigger for one high priced guy this year it probably would be him or one of the 2 pitchers I've noted, Tanaka or Kuroda. Of course it does depend on just how high the cost goes. If it's much beyond $100 mil they probably pass. He's a pretty secure bet though give his record of performance. Even if his defense continues to regress we still have LF and DH for him at some point. If Manny could play LF for us, Choo can certainly do it as well.

    Part of my reasoning is I think they sell high on Nava. At least they think they will. The whole Jonny Gomes thing shows us how Farrell really thinks about Nava. That's probably not going to change.  

    If Farrell's statement about JBJ and needing power on the corners to start him at CF is accurate ( it was a radio comment someone on soxprospects heard ), then who are they going to play in CF if not JBJ? It would seem that Victorino would be the choice probably I would think. 

    Or they do end up getting more power in LF from a new guy. Ergo my prediction of Choo. It could be any of the above guys I noted ( Beltran, Morse, Granderson...etc) but it sounds like Farrel slipped. If the comment even happened at all.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The Redsox are holding on to their picks like crazy. If they sign a top QO type FA, I bet it's a top guy who is a secure bet to put up good numbers. They will be selective about when they give up a pick but this year their pick is number 30 right and they did everything in their power last year to not give up any. It makes a lot of sense for them to only give up a pick when they really have to or really want to in the case of a top guy. Who knows, that top guy might be just bringing back Ellsbury but to me Choo is a better fit.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    They didnt have a ton of power in the OF this year so I really think your reading too much into whatever comment you heard.

    Choo is looking at the same kind of deal as Ells and hes about 1.5 years older, so my guess is if they dont sign Ells, then its probably no on signing Choo. He also has huge splits vs LHP (sub 700OPS). Choo is also an average of 15-20HR a year and gets caught stealing at about a 30-35% clip. Not good. Im not saying his not a good player, because he is. All Im saying is committing 6-7 years and the kind of $$ him and Boras are looking for to a guy thats going to be 32 in July isnt the smartest thing to do taking everything into consideration. You cant say a player would have hit .300 playing in Fenway with a ton of 2b and HR. Thats ridiculous. theres no way of knowing that. They said Naps would have 35HR playing in Fenway. That didnt work out so well. Actually, I think Naps had better numbers away from Fenway. Nava and Choo are actually very similar. Slightly lower numbers for Nava, but hes a .300 hitter that can hit 10-15HR with an OBP around .380-.400 at a 500K salary compared to a possible 20M per deal.

    Corey Hart on a 1yr make good deal makes sense instead of a multiple player platoon at 1b. You should look at his numbers before posting. Yes, he had knee issues in 2013, not the last 2 years though. Hart is a 30HR hitter who can drive in 80-100RBI (87 HR 2010-12) hes a  280 BA, .340OBP and almost .500SLG. Hes averaged an .850OPS 2010-12. His splits  are both north of .825 vs LH and RHP. In 103 games at 1b hes looked good. He doent need to be platooned. maybe rested a few games. He can also go to the corner OF in NL parks so papi can play too. Id rather have a proven player at 1b than mess with a bunch of platoons. Thats overthinking things.

    They seem to really be interested in Beltran in the OF though. Not sure I like him for 3 years. After Thanksgiving things should heat up a bit.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    The Redsox are holding on to their picks like crazy. If they sign a top QO type FA, I bet it's a top guy who is a secure bet to put up good numbers. They will be selective about when they give up a pick but this year their pick is number 30 right and they did everything in their power last year to not give up any. It makes a lot of sense for them to only give up a pick when they really have to or really want to in the case of a top guy. Who knows, that top guy might be just bringing back Ellsbury but to me Choo is a better fit.



    I do agree that the Sox covet picks, this is no secrete...and I'm happy that they do so. But all of their picks that they net will go inbetween the 1st and 2nd round.  Now a lot can happen, and I speculate that a few teams will lose their first rounder and probably only 1 team will sign to guys who cost draft picks (they'd lose their 1st and second, baring their picks being protected) So the Sox second pick in next years draft will likely be in the 32-34 range and the other two being in the high 30's.

    That is not much different than picking 27th or 29th which is where I suspect they will pick.  I think they sign one guy but no more.  Of course if they sign one of their own FA they keep the 30th pick, and if they sign someone else they slip a few places until they pick.  There is a very good chance whoever they have their eyes on for their first round draft pick may still be there.  

    My guess is the Sox walk away with 3 picks inbetween the 1st and 2nd round.  And remember the last time the Sox didn't pick in the first round they ended up drafting Dustin Pedroia

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     




    Lester will be a solid starter through age 35

     

    Corey Hart is a much better option than Mike Morse.

    Dempster is much more important to this team than people give him credit for.

    Choo is NOT a good option for his price. Id rather pay Ells that $$ if we even go there.

    The Sox are not going to have a bunch of crazy platoons and shift guys all over the field.

    Vic is our best RF option. Why move a GG RF'er, especially in Fenway.

     

     




    Agree with all of the above!

    Not saying RS couldn't do the impossible and win a WS 2yrs in a row, but I sure wouldn't bet the house on it. Time to start moving in the young talent and look at 15-16 as more likely target dates. Give WMB chance to prove 12 wasn't a fluke that wrist injury slowed him last yr, JBJ to CF; Boegarts SS. Cecchini / Owens / Swihart / Webster & others on the way. Great time to be a RS fan = 3 WS titles last 10 years and a very bright future looking at farm system.

     

     
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