A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Overlay Choo's hits over Fenway park and you will see why i made my BOLD prediction.

     

    I remember people taking AGon's hit charts and projecting 50 Hrs with Boston.... no wait, I think I was one of "those people".

    LOL

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I haven't had much time this year to research options much. I think you and I are in agreement that maybe Choo is a better fit Moon ( correct me if I'm wrong ). I do think Choo will cost $90 mil or so minimum over 5 years though. Maybe even $100 mil. I have no problem with it if they pass. Just saying he's a solid fit for us and someone is going to have to pay him. Why not us?

    I do think the cheaper Choo is a better fit than Ellsbury, except for having to move Shane from RF.

    However, I like Beltran hitting behind Papi more. And he's a shorter deal.

    I'm really thinking hard for a way we can stay highly competitive while keeping all our picks (no QO signings even our own).

    What's you best plan to spend $30M and keep our 4 early draft picks. A trade or two is almost essential.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    OK Moon, I'll play that game! First though let me state that I generally support signing one FA with a QO. I just don't think we can afford 2. We should be in win now mode. Now is not the time to go cheap overall,but I do want to stay under the cap.

    Regarding Choo, I think it's a scenario where we play Choo in LF, trade Nava for some real value maybe at catcher, Use Carp and a solid RH hitter like Morse for a platoon at 1st. Go with Bogaerts at SS and JBJ in CF. Ideally sign Tanaka and probably trade a starter like Dempster or Peavy for talent to fill another need.

    Choo / Beltran in LF at up from $15- $20 mil / year

    Carp / Morse  at $5 mil / year

    Trade Peavy to unload $14 mil. Sign Tanaka ideally at $11 mil / year actually saving cap money in comparison to Peavy.

    That is improving the team a lot while still staying under the cap. Even signing Choo at $20 mil per year keeps the team under the cap with this approach.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Overlay Choo's hits over Fenway park and you will see why i made my BOLD prediction.

     

    I remember people taking AGon's hit charts and projecting 50 Hrs with Boston.... no wait, I think I was one of "those people".

    LOL

    [/QUOTE]

    He did hit a lot of doubles though. One thing I think many of us missed was just how much impact sluggers have from shoulder injuries. A lesson hopefully we have learned.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Been real busy lately. Christmas prep stuff. I will look at a scenario where there is no QO FA signing so we keep our picks. I don't know if I can come up with one I truely like but I imagine Tanaka is probably in that mix somehow!

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Trade Peavy to unload $14 mil. Sign Tanaka ideally at $11 mil / year actually saving cap money in comparison to Peavy.

    That is improving the team a lot while still staying under the cap. Even signing Choo at $20 mil per year keeps the team under the cap with this approach.

    [/QUOTE]

    There's no way in heck the Sox are seriously interested in Tanaka, with his posting fee expected to be 60 to 70 million.  Of course the whole posting system thing has to be sorted out first.

    If it is, the Yankees are almost certain to land Tanaka. 

    The Sox are extremely unlikely to invest $120 million or whatever it costs to land a pitcher who hasn't pitched an MLB inning.  They already had the Dice-K experience.

    The posting fee may not affect the cap, but it's still a ton of real money going out the door. 

    The Sox will likely be extending Lester after the start of the season.

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I agree that the Yanks are the clear front runners for Tanaka but it may well be that Boston makes a run at him also. They have shown a willingness to bid for top quality Japanes players over the years and make no question about it, Tanaka at 26 years old with a 24-0 record and a 1.27 ERA if I remember correctly, is a top quality, special talent. If they land him, he might well be their best pitcher.

    And what is wrong with $130 mil if that is the case, especially when half of it doesn't count against the cap?

    Win baby win.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    And if they unload Peavy's salary to help get him, they actually save money against the cap. I think there is "way".

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I agree that Nava adds a lot of value. Other teams feel that way as well though, and he's cheap. He is worth the cost of a lot of starting level catchers. In fact probably even most starting level catchers.

    And we might well get a decent return for Peavy also, who might be worth a pick when he's done. I have no problem trading Dempster in his place. Prediction: One of of our starting pitchers is gone this off season.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    And if they unload Peavy's salary to help get him, they actually save money against the cap. I think there is "way".

    [/QUOTE]

    That saving is for one year only.  In the big picture it's $14 million for Peavy compared to $120-130 million for Tanaka.

    The Red Sox would seem to have moved to a philosophy of avoiding this type of long-term high-risk deal.  Plus they have some very good pitching prospects.  Plus they have an extension for Lester to deal with. 

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    "Carp / Morse  at $5 mil / year"

     

    Wrong.
    Morse cost almost 7M this year and Carp will cost about 1-2M in his 1st arb year in 2014. The two will cost about 10M for 2014, not 5M.

    Then consider you will probably have to give Morse a 2-3 year deal at between 7-10M per. Although since he couldnt even reach a .700OPS, he might come cheaper. Bugt then again, why would you want a 700OPS 1bman?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    What's you best plan to spend $30M and keep our 4 early draft picks. A trade or two is almost essential.

    OK Moon, I'll play that game! First though let me state that I generally support signing one FA with a QO. I just don't think we can afford 2. We should be in win now mode. Now is not the time to go cheap overall,but I do want to stay under the cap.

    Regarding Choo, I think it's a scenario where we play Choo in LF, trade Nava for some real value maybe at catcher, Use Carp and a solid RH hitter like Morse for a platoon at 1st. Go with Bogaerts at SS and JBJ in CF. Ideally sign Tanaka and probably trade a starter like Dempster or Peavy for talent to fill another need.

    Choo / Beltran in LF at up from $15- $20 mil / year

    Carp / Morse  at $5 mil / year

    Trade Peavy to unload $14 mil. Sign Tanaka ideally at $11 mil / year actually saving cap money in comparison to Peavy.

     

    That is improving the team a lot while still staying under the cap. Even signing Choo at $20 mil per year keeps the team under the cap with this approach.

     

    You didn't really stick to the no QO challenge, but I do think we will sign one QO player (maybe one of our own (Napoli), but it would be interesting if we could build a strong contender and keep the 4 picks.

    Signing Tanaka makes the most sense under this challenge. It allows us to trade Dempster and Peavy and actually improve our rotation while saving luxury tax budget money. Let's say we keep Dempster for middle and long relief...

    How's this:

    Trade Peavy & Lava for C Hanigan & RHP Alfredo Simon: save ~$10M.

    Remaining winter spending budget: ~$40M

    Sign: 

    $12M x 5 Tanaka (Best player for luxury tax numbers)

    $7M x 3 Mujica (Closer insurance)

    $7M x 2  C. Hart (or Morse)

    $7M x 2 R. Davis (Takes pressure off JBJ)

    $3M x 2 C. Barmes (2nd best UZR/150 from 2011-2013 ar SS)

     

    Lots of flexibility:

    Barmes at SS, Bogey at 3B, Middy/Hart/Carp at 1B.

    Bogey at SS, Middy at 3B, Hart/Carp/Nava at 1B.

    Hart in RF, Vict in CF or Vict in RF and Davis/JBJ in CF.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Signing Tanaka makes the most sense under this challenge. It allows us to trade Dempster and Peavy and actually improve our rotation while saving luxury tax budget money. Let's say we keep Dempster for middle and long relief...

    How's this:

    Trade Peavy & Lava for C Hanigan & RHP Alfredo Simon: save ~$10M.

    Remaining winter spending budget: ~$40M

    Sign: 

    $12M x 5 Tanaka (Best player for luxury tax numbers)

    [/QUOTE]

    The posting fee for Tanaka is projected at $60-70 million.  With the contract you suggested that would make the total cost $120-130 million for 5 years - an average of $24 million-$26 million.

    Saving the luxury tax is nice but the posting fee is real money too.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Signing Tanaka makes the most sense under this challenge. It allows us to trade Dempster and Peavy and actually improve our rotation while saving luxury tax budget money. Let's say we keep Dempster for middle and long relief...

    How's this:

    Trade Peavy & Lava for C Hanigan & RHP Alfredo Simon: save ~$10M.

    Remaining winter spending budget: ~$40M

    Sign: 

    $12M x 5 Tanaka (Best player for luxury tax numbers)

    [/QUOTE]

    The posting fee for Tanaka is projected at $60-70 million.  With the contract you suggested that would make the total cost $120-130 million for 5 years - an average of $24 million-$26 million.

    Saving the luxury tax is nice but the posting fee is real money too.

    [/QUOTE]

    Understood, and it's less money than any luxury tax might be, but I like Tanaka a lot, and the ability to trade peavy for a cheap option like Hanigan saves us $6-14M at the catcher slot (compared to signing McCann, Ruiz or Salty).

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Signing Tanaka makes the most sense under this challenge. It allows us to trade Dempster and Peavy and actually improve our rotation while saving luxury tax budget money. Let's say we keep Dempster for middle and long relief...

    How's this:

    Trade Peavy & Lava for C Hanigan & RHP Alfredo Simon: save ~$10M.

    Remaining winter spending budget: ~$40M

    Sign: 

    $12M x 5 Tanaka (Best player for luxury tax numbers)

    [/QUOTE]

    The posting fee for Tanaka is projected at $60-70 million.  With the contract you suggested that would make the total cost $120-130 million for 5 years - an average of $24 million-$26 million.

    Saving the luxury tax is nice but the posting fee is real money too.

    [/QUOTE]

    Understood, and it's less money than any luxury tax might be, but I like Tanaka a lot, and the ability to trade peavy for a cheap option like Hanigan saves us $6-14M at the catcher slot (compared to signing McCann, Ruiz or Salty).

    [/QUOTE]


    Would the Reds even consider Peavy and his 14M? Not sure or they would have taken a more reliable Arroyo back at that price, and they already have their starting 5 and Corcino looking to be about ready... They also have no use for Lav with Pena just signed and Mesoraco.

    My guess is an area of need that is somewhat more cost effective. Maybe a BP arm or a guy like Nava/Carp would be more to their liking.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "Carp / Morse  at $5 mil / year"

     

    Wrong.
    Morse cost almost 7M this year and Carp will cost about 1-2M in his 1st arb year in 2014. The two will cost about 10M for 2014, not 5M.

    Then consider you will probably have to give Morse a 2-3 year deal at between 7-10M per. Although since he couldnt even reach a .700OPS, he might come cheaper. Bugt then again, why would you want a 700OPS 1bman?

    [/QUOTE]

    I was talking about added cost. We are already paying Carp. And I showed you above that Morse put up about the same OPS numbers as your guy ( Hart ) over the last 3 years but you cite his injury year anyway. That's rather disengenuous.  But my guy supposedly stinks but will still cost more than he made last year, after his worst year in 4 years?

    The bottom line is I don't know how you sign Salty, Ellsbury and Hart and whoever else you need and stay under budget. I am at least under budget. Are you? 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon I haven't gotten around to the project of a scenario with no QO FA signings. I think we are in win now mode and don't think we will go to the no top FA sighnings approach but I will look at it when I get a chance. I expect it might take me an hour or so to do. I'm real busy right now and can't give things that much time.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon I haven't gotten around to the project of a scenario with no QO FA signings. I think we are in win now mode and don't think we will go to the no top FA sighnings approach but I will look at it when I get a chance. I expect it might take me an hour or so to do. I'm real busy right now and can't give things that much time.

    [/QUOTE]

    No problem.

    Win now mode could include trades and the top non QO free agents.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    We only have 3-4 contracts in place beyond next year. I think Buchholz, Victorino, Dempster and Pedroia and after 2015 2 more of them will be gone. We have control over some of the other players but Lackey, Lester, Ortiz, Gomes etc... will no longer be under control after 2014 and we just lost control of Salty, Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew. 

    I have no problem signing the best pitcher in Japan as one of our starters and trading a Dempster, Peavy or Doubront. We might even get some real value from some of those guys back. As in a starting 1st baseman or catcher.

    I like for example trading with KC for maybe a RH platoon guy at 1st in Billy Butler, who mashes lefties and could platoon well with Carp at 1st and KC wants to move him. Maybe a deal involving Dempster moves some of his contract in exchange for some of Billy Butlers plus it solves our 1st base problem. Maybe a Nava in some sort of deal involving Hochevar. Not straight up but in someway obtaining a top setup guy like Hochevar. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Butler is a DH pretending to be a 1Bman.

    He does have a nice bat.

    If we signed Tanaka, we could trade Dempster for Butler and maybe Peavy for Hanigan and another piece.

    Sign R Davis, C Hart, pen help and a quality leftside IF'er utility

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I just looked more closely at the Billy Butler situation. He probably would be the main starter at 1st and I think he is not that bad defensively. He isn't playing first because of Eric Hosmer. Before Hosmer came into the picture Butler was a decent 1st base guy and he seems to be optimized fairly well for Fenway and would be very good protection for Ortiz:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/billy-butler/hitchart/348541?q=billy-butler

    His UZR/150 at 1st was around a -5 for several years before Hosmer. I don't think he would be a bad option for us. Cost controlled for 2 more years and a better RH bat probably than Napoli in my opinion.

    I don't think we could trade for him straight up with Dempster but the Royals don't want to pay his salary and he is of substantially more value to us than Dempster potentially. He solves 2 problems for us. Dumping salary and solving the 1st base problem. Even if it takes another trade option I think he would be a good fit for us. Real solid #5 bat.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I just looked more closely at the Billy Butler situation. He probably would be the main starter at 1st and I think he is not that bad defensively. He isn't playing first because of Eric Hosmer. Before Hosmer came into the picture Butler was a decent 1st base guy and he seems to be optimized fairly well for Fenway and would be very good protection for Ortiz:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/billy-butler/hitchart/348541?q=billy-butler

    His UZR/150 at 1st was around a -5 for several years before Hosmer. I don't think he would be a bad option for us. Cost controlled for 2 more years and a better RH bat probably than Napoli in my opinion.

    I don't think we could trade for him straight up with Dempster but the Royals don't want to pay his salary and he is of substantially more value to us than Dempster potentially. He solves 2 problems for us. Dumping salary and solving the 1st base problem. Even if it takes another trade option I think he would be a good fit for us. Real solid #5 bat.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think if we throw in Brentz and Miller they may take Dempster for Butler.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    What about Kuroda?

     

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