A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    EDIT: it's Deven Marrero

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Could Michael Young on a 1yr deal at 1b be a realistic and good option?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In regard to Choo, my bet is less than $100 mil. My bet for Ellsbury is closer to $120 mil. And to me Ellsbury may well be a better player for many teams but he's not better for the Redsox. Choo is clearly more optimized for the Redsox stadium and offensive approach. He gets on base at an elite level with substantially more pop. See below:

    http://www.gammonsdaily.com/shin-soo-choo-the-best-leadoff-batter-in-baseball/

     

    In regard to him being a "horrible" fielder, he's not a CF player ok. He was out of position. Put him in left field and he's a better fielder than both Gomes or Nava. And Gomes would be able to help him out a little with those bad splits against LH pitching.

    Which brings us to Nava. Nava is a very low cost player who is controllable for 4 years, who put up solid numbers last year. A strong case could be made for him to be tradeable for a decent starting catcher or significant reliever. He has value to a lot of low budget teams in particular. A guy whose is cheap who can help a team win. Yes, he is close to the same hitter as Choo ( in the same vicinity at least ) and a whole lot cheaper but he also is very tradeable and currently not even playing in key games. Ergo, bye bye. Get some value for him now.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I wouldn't be surprised if Drew goes all the way to the end of the winter before signing. Teams don't want to give up a pick for a guy now unless they are truly great. I just hope we pull that deal off and get picks for him, Ellsbury and Napoli. 

    Regarding Bogaerts being an above average SS, I'm assuming you are talking about defense. They guy is probably a future all star SS overall. Defensively I don't think he will ever be above average. The bar is pretty high for that achievement level.

    I have to be honest and say I have never really considered Middlebrooks at 1st base much. My thinking is that he is of move value at 3rd than at 1st if he can handle the position defensively. I never looked at him as a platoon guy though either, and a platoon with Carp is not crazy if Cechinni does come up and do as well as expected offensively. That might be real solid production at 1st base and a lot of positional flexibility from that solution. not to mention low cost.

    Now can one of those guys catch?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Could Michael Young on a 1yr deal at 1b be a realistic and good option?

    [/QUOTE]

    Young definitely makes some sense as utility infielder who can play all 4 positions  (not necessarily well,though) and he could be short term Middlebrooks insurance.  

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I wouldn't be surprised if Drew goes all the way to the end of the winter before signing. Teams don't want to give up a pick for a guy now unless they are truly great. I just hope we pull that deal off and get picks for him, Ellsbury and Napoli. 

    Regarding Bogaerts being an above average SS, I'm assuming you are talking about defense. They guy is probably a future all star SS overall. Defensively I don't think he will ever be above average. The bar is pretty high for that achievement level.

    I have to be honest and say I have never really considered Middlebrooks at 1st base much. My thinking is that he is of move value at 3rd than at 1st if he can handle the position defensively. I never looked at him as a platoon guy though either, and a platoon with Carp is not crazy if Cechinni does come up and do as well as expected offensively. That might be real solid production at 1st base and a lot of positional flexibility from that solution. not to mention low cost.

    Now can one of those guys catch?




    Choos defensive numbers in RF arent good either, but I agree that LF in Fenway would help that some. The .615OPS vs LHP really scares me though. There are some really good LHP in the ALE and the AL in general. Also consider that will Ellsbury, Vic and JBJ, the Sox would have 3 legit CF'ers in their OF. NOTHING would get by them unless it went over the fence.

    With that said,, I dont think either will be in Boston next year at those prices and for the number of years they want.

    Im with you about Middy at 1b. Doesnt seem like a good fit to me.

    Apparently the catchers market isnt working out too well because the Sox are actually considering Lavarnway as the primary catcher if they dont strike a deal with someone, but only for the short term. If thats true, I really hope Im wrong about him. I imagine if they really felt good about it they would have already named him the starter. The fact that he seems to be a last resort doesnt sit well with me.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    There are a lot of very very good fielding SSs in MLB today. Being average is not a bad thing, but it is what it is.

    I seriously doubt any below average fielding SS has an easy path to becoming plus or top 10. 2 years to go from bottom 10 to #14-16 is not a "lack of confidence", in fact I think I am being generous.

    Are other MLB SSs going to get worse or decline? Maybe some by age or injury, but there are a lot of plus and super plus fielding SSs out there right now.

     

     




    Ok, fair enough.

     

    Now, as far as Middy goes...

    Could you live with a 260BA  .310OBP  500SLG with 25HR and 150K's from Middy at 3b?

    I could live with 250 Ks, if he could get his OBP up to .340.

    To answer your question, yes, an .810 OPS would be a huge improvement over 2013's 3B numbers, however, I am assuming his fielding is more like 2012 than 2013.

    There are a lot of very very good fielding SSs in MLB today. Being average is not a bad thing, but it is what it is.

    I seriously doubt any below average fielding SS has an easy path to becoming plus or top 10. 2 years to go from bottom 10 to #14-16 is not a "lack of confidence", in fact I think I am being generous.

    Are other MLB SSs going to get worse or decline? Maybe some by age or injury, but there are a lot of plus and super plus fielding SSs out there right now.

     

     




    Ok, fair enough.

     

    Now, as far as Middy goes...

    Could you live with a 260BA  .310OBP  500SLG with 25HR and 150K's from Middy at 3b?

    I can live with 250 Ks if he can give us an .800+ OPS and fielding more like 2012 than 2013.

    I do think the .500 SLG projection may be a little generous seeing the guy had a .455 minor league SLG and .491 in AAA, but I do think he could give us that in 2014.

    My projection might be more like .245/.300/.475.

     

     

    If Cecchini stays at 300BA  380OBP  low 400's SLG  10HR, which he appears likely to do, is he your 3b and then revisit a move for Middy to 1b. Or do you put Cecchini in LF or 1b since his defense hasnt looked very good at 3b? I admit that I believe Cecchini will improve on his Defense, but Im not sure how much.

    I'm not sure how good a fielder Cecchini is as compared to Middy, but from what I read, he might be the guy to be moved to 1B or LF...

    Played shortstop and second base in high school, but transitioned to third base as a professional. Soft hands. Needs improvement with reads off of bat. Can be stiff and slow with reactions. Plus arm. Tools to become an average defender at the hot corner. High baseball IQ. Quick learner and makes adjustments... 

    The other question mark with Cecchini comes in the field and what position he profiles best at. At third base, he projects to be an average defender, as he isn’t overly athletic and lacks fluidity at the position. If need be, he could probably play an adequate left field or first base, but his bat profiles best at third.

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Will Middlebrooks has posted a sub-.275 on-base percentage and a sub-.700 OPS in 129 games since the trade of Kevin Youkilis in June 2012 (after a spectacular 40-game MLB debut). Projectiing a .310 OBP and an .800 OPS is highly optimistic. Middlebrooks probably is who he is.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If a lot of SS are very good fielders then I'd say that being an average SS makes you an above average defender overall.... 

    I'd say an "average defender" is relative and means something like being ranked about #13-#17 out of the 30 top inning SSs in any given timeframe.

    Above average is somewhere between #10-#14.

     

    Bogaerts is said to be an average defender, now that may not be enough for some people who truly value defense but If I can get average defense and elite offense from a guy at a position then I'll sleep very well at the end of the night.

    I'm not thinking Bogey is at this time a #13-17 ranked fielding SS.

    I can sleep very well too, but I'd sleep like a baby if he was my elite offensive 3Bman and an average defensive 3Bman by midseason and probably plus before he ever becomes plus defensively at SS. Yes, that is my opinion and is clearly speculation.

     

     

    But I do think he stays at SS for a few more seasons at least, and a lot of that could depend on how are prospects pan out.  

    I agree.

    soxprospects.com:

    Plus-to-better arm. Light on feet defensively with strong anticipation, reactions, and first step. Solid footwork and stays square to the ball. Can stand to improve range to his left by stabbing less at the ball and taking another step or continuing to become comfortable throwing on the move. Rounding towards a plus defender. Hard worker that makes adjustments. Just beginning to learn what he can do as a baseball player.

     

    Lets say in 3 years from now Devon Marerro turns into a MLB player and WMB makes little improvements on his defense but he is constantly a 30 HR guy who's hit tool is sufficient enough to make up for his low walk totals.  I'd be perfectly fine plugging Marrero in at SS (who many scouts say that his glove is VERY close to as good as IGGY's) move Bogaerts to 3rd and WMB to first. 

    So, if we could pick up an extreme plus defesnive SS now for cheap, why not be proactive.

     

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    My baseball philosophy is rooted in 2 major positions:

    1) You need great starting pitching to contend, and one should almost always look to improve your rotation from the top 3 slots- not by improving your 4th or 5th starter.

    2) Defense at the SS position, particularly in the area of range greatly increases the effeciency of your staff and your chances at winning.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    1) No argument.

     

    2) Where is the statistical evidence that supports the great importance of SS defence?  We've said it many times, Jeter has terrible range but the Yankees have only missed the playoffs twice with him at SS-only once really, since he hardly played last year.

    I would like to see how much correlation there actually is between SS defence and a team's record.

    [/QUOTE]

    A team that can spend a lot to upgrade almost all other positions can absorb a weakness in one specific area (or even more than one).

    Jeter made up for some of his poor defensive range by being an excellent offensive weapon and clubhouse leader. He also wasn't as horrible a fielder earlier in his career, when he won most of his rings.

    People knock Lugo's defense, but he really wasn't that bad up to 2007. His range was actually plus, and it more than made up for his tendency to botch more easy plays than the norm.

    The day we traded for Cabrera, I told my two brothers in law, that his fielding was going to win us a ring. I still believe it was the tipping point of the 2004 season.

    There are many examples of teams winning without great defensive SSs, just as there are times teams won without great pitching. No one area wins a ring, but I have played enough baseball and watched enough baseball to come to believe in the grand value of SS defense.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    My baseball philosophy is rooted in 2 major positions:

    1) You need great starting pitching to contend, and one should almost always look to improve your rotation from the top 3 slots- not by improving your 4th or 5th starter.

    2) Defense at the SS position, particularly in the area of range greatly increases the effeciency of your staff and your chances at winning.

    [/QUOTE]

    1) No argument.

    2) Where is the statistical evidence that supports the great importance of SS defence?  We've said it many times, Jeter has terrible range but the Yankees have only missed the playoffs twice with him at SS-only really, since he hardly played last year.

    I would like to see how much correlation there actually is between SS defence and a team's record.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think that has something to do with your pitchers Hfx. If your staff induce a ton of GB's, then yes, IF defense is very important. Its obviously not the only thing, but part of the equation when building a team.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Well said, but I'm probably one to believe that the SS defense part is bigger than maybe most posters believe it is.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I wouldn't be surprised if Drew goes all the way to the end of the winter before signing. Teams don't want to give up a pick for a guy now unless they are truly great. I just hope we pull that deal off and get picks for him, Ellsbury and Napoli. 

    Regarding Bogaerts being an above average SS, I'm assuming you are talking about defense. They guy is probably a future all star SS overall. Defensively I don't think he will ever be above average. The bar is pretty high for that achievement level.

    I have to be honest and say I have never really considered Middlebrooks at 1st base much. My thinking is that he is of move value at 3rd than at 1st if he can handle the position defensively. I never looked at him as a platoon guy though either, and a platoon with Carp is not crazy if Cechinni does come up and do as well as expected offensively. That might be real solid production at 1st base and a lot of positional flexibility from that solution. not to mention low cost.

    Now can one of those guys catch?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Choos defensive numbers in RF arent good either, but I agree that LF in Fenway would help that some. The .615OPS vs LHP really scares me though. There are some really good LHP in the ALE and the AL in general. Also consider that will Ellsbury, Vic and JBJ, the Sox would have 3 legit CF'ers in their OF. NOTHING would get by them unless it went over the fence.

     

    With that said,, I dont think either will be in Boston next year at those prices and for the number of years they want.

    Im with you about Middy at 1b. Doesnt seem like a good fit to me.

    Apparently the catchers market isnt working out too well because the Sox are actually considering Lavarnway as the primary catcher if they dont strike a deal with someone, but only for the short term. If thats true, I really hope Im wrong about him. I imagine if they really felt good about it they would have already named him the starter. The fact that he seems to be a last resort doesnt sit well with me.

    [/QUOTE]

    It seems that Salty actually might be the last resort! Between the two of them there isn't much of a vote of confidence. I think they may still end up with Salty.

    Drats!

    The best data is the overall number, not the split. The guy got on base at a .423 clip which I believe was #1 for all mlb outfielders last year. I don't care if he needs a wheelchair to get to first hitting against left handers if he can post a .423 overall. I actually prefer that sort of player. It just means Gomes actually earns his playing time next year. As it should be. 

    I think Middlebrooks is probably underrated now, while he was probably overated his first year. I'm pretty comfident he is at least an average overall 3rd baseman for us next year.

    If I know the situation, they have a budget in mind. And won't go over it for Salty. Salty is not priority #1. He's probably 3rd or 4th down the list. I think we almost definitely sign at least one QO FA.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    We are almost certainly going to see Bogey and Middy on the left side IF. We may sign a decent defensive SS as our utility man.

    That leaves CF, 1B and C left over with about $30M to spend.

    We may go in house at one slot, but I seriously doubt we do at 2 slots.

    CF: JBJ (Victorino with Nava in RF)

    1B: Carp/Nava (Papi in NL parks and Middy in a pinch)

    C: Ross/Lava (Butler/Vazquez/longshot: Swihart)

     

    To me, our worst in house solution here is catcher.

    If we could trade Dempster plus $3.25M for Hanigan, we'd have about $40M to spend on 1B and CF, with some left over for a utility IF'er, a pen arm, and maybe a 5th OF'er.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I agree with that Moon but I think we are even less likely to see Carp/Nava than we are Lavarnway. Overall though I think you nailed it. They aren't standing pat. That's for sure.

    Intersting article on Nava. A full timer in search of a home. I think he's traded:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/daniel-nava-more-than-a-platooner/

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Interesting article on Hanigan:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/switching-out-hanigan-for-pena/

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I wouldn't be surprised if Drew goes all the way to the end of the winter before signing. Teams don't want to give up a pick for a guy now unless they are truly great. I just hope we pull that deal off and get picks for him, Ellsbury and Napoli. 

    Regarding Bogaerts being an above average SS, I'm assuming you are talking about defense. They guy is probably a future all star SS overall. Defensively I don't think he will ever be above average. The bar is pretty high for that achievement level.

    I have to be honest and say I have never really considered Middlebrooks at 1st base much. My thinking is that he is of move value at 3rd than at 1st if he can handle the position defensively. I never looked at him as a platoon guy though either, and a platoon with Carp is not crazy if Cechinni does come up and do as well as expected offensively. That might be real solid production at 1st base and a lot of positional flexibility from that solution. not to mention low cost.

    Now can one of those guys catch?

     




    Choos defensive numbers in RF arent good either, but I agree that LF in Fenway would help that some. The .615OPS vs LHP really scares me though. There are some really good LHP in the ALE and the AL in general. Also consider that will Ellsbury, Vic and JBJ, the Sox would have 3 legit CF'ers in their OF. NOTHING would get by them unless it went over the fence.

     

    With that said,, I dont think either will be in Boston next year at those prices and for the number of years they want.

    Im with you about Middy at 1b. Doesnt seem like a good fit to me.

    Apparently the catchers market isnt working out too well because the Sox are actually considering Lavarnway as the primary catcher if they dont strike a deal with someone, but only for the short term. If thats true, I really hope Im wrong about him. I imagine if they really felt good about it they would have already named him the starter. The fact that he seems to be a last resort doesnt sit well with me.

    [/QUOTE]

    It seems that Salty actually might be the last resort! Between the two of them there isn't much of a vote of confidence. I think they may still end up with Salty.

    Drats!

    The best data is the overall number, not the split. The guy got on base at a .423 clip which I believe was #1 for all mlb outfielders last year. I don't care if he needs a wheelchair to get to first hitting against left handers if he can post a .423 overall. I actually prefer that sort of player. It just means Gomes actually earns his playing time next year. As it should be. 

    I think Middlebrooks is probably underrated now, while he was probably overated his first year. I'm pretty comfident he is at least an average overall 3rd baseman for us next year.

    If I know the situation, they have a budget in mind. And won't go over it for Salty. Salty is not priority #1. He's probably 3rd or 4th down the list. I think we almost definitely sign at least one QO FA.

    [/QUOTE]


    Olney is suggesting that theres an issue with Salty's medicals. No other info was given and its obviously just speculation. Salty would be the last option of all the good options because of his demands. Lets see where this whole "issue with his medicals" goes.

    And Moon,

    The Reds dont need Dempster just like they dont need Peavy. Their rotation looks to be set. Plus the $$ isnt a good thing for them. But I agree that they should consider hanigan if the price is right.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    An update on the Olney comment, which was pure speculation appparently:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/east-notes-blue-jays-saltalamacchia-drew-cano-nats.html

    At some point Drew and Salty sign deals which are not where they had hoped but still they will be well paid. These are probably the biggest contracts of their careers. Someone probably picks up a relative bargain in Drew. In the right situation and contract level both can be good signs. 

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    RedsoxProspects  I urge you to GOOGLE "cheese dick" .... it is a perfect description of you.

     

    Urban Dictionary: cheese dick

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    For some reason I normally pass on your suggestions Enchilada / Burrito. Something about guys who have so much creativity they name themselves after Mexican cuisine items.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Ok, Enchilada. You are on ignore now. Have a field day. Dazzle us with your wit and wisdom.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I come here a few minutes a day to get away from things and I have to deal with bozos like him.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I just noticed they don't have the polling feature any more, apparently since they dumped pluck. I thought that feature was kind of handy. Oh well, back to work.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    And Moon,

    The Reds dont need Dempster just like they dont need Peavy. Their rotation looks to be set. Plus the $$ isnt a good thing for them. But I agree that they should consider hanigan if the price is right.

    Maybe a three way deal then.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    Will Middlebrooks has posted a sub-.275 on-base percentage and a sub-.700 OPS in 129 games since the trade of Kevin Youkilis in June 2012 (after a spectacular 40-game MLB debut). Projectiing a .310 OBP and an .800 OPS is highly optimistic. Middlebrooks probably is who he is.

     



     I choose to put things in context, not just look at numbers. All you numbers guys forget that theres a human element to the game.

     

    If you look at his OBP throughout the MiL and MLB, you will see that .310 is far from "highly optomistic". Actually its pretty accurate. Besides last years struggles, we have to take into consideration the broken wrist in 2012 and the broken ribs this year, he hasnt had an OBP below .325 in MLB or MiL since low A ball when he was 19.
    Hes had close to, or over a 500SLG a few times. His power is obviously there. to expect a SLG between 470-500 or better is aslo far from highly optomistic.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    And Moon,

    The Reds dont need Dempster just like they dont need Peavy. Their rotation looks to be set. Plus the $$ isnt a good thing for them. But I agree that they should consider hanigan if the price is right.

    Maybe a three way deal then.




    How about just give them a relief pitcher or something we have a surplus of that is inexpensive?

    Hanigan shouldnt cost much since they already have their catchers and hes going to make 2-3M. No need to do a 3-way for Hanigan. Morales, villareal, Hernandez, Wilson are a few names Maybe an Almanzar or De La Cruz, maybe Coyle... Something along those lines.

     

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