A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The Ells deal is ridiculous! So much for believing that the Yanks were going to become "frugal". 

    I liked Salty and thought he should be retained. Based on what he took from the Marlins, he wasn't holding a gun to Ben's head and asking for the moon, so clearly they simply didn't want him.

    Interesting to me that they went with a guy who has a history with Nieves to handle the pitching staff while waiting for Vasquez. No one knows a catcher's strengths and weaknesses like a pitching coach. One thing I can recall about AJ is that I never liked to see him coming up against us when it counted. His offense should be a slight improvement over Salty who I believe will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 2013 numbers. But mostly I think he's a veteran compliment to Ross and one-year place-holder and I like Vasquez enough to be happy with that.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    The Ells deal is ridiculous! So much for believing that the Yanks were going to become "frugal". 

    I liked Salty and thought he should be retained. Based on what he took from the Marlins, he wasn't holding a gun to Ben's head and asking for the moon, so clearly they simply didn't want him.

    Interesting to me that they went with a guy who has a history with Nieves to handle the pitching staff while waiting for Vasquez. No one knows a catcher's strengths and weaknesses like a pitching coach. One thing I can recall about AJ is that I never liked to see him coming up against us when it counted. His offense should be a slight improvement over Salty who I believe will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 2013 numbers. But mostly I think he's a veteran compliment to Ross and one-year place-holder and I like Vasquez enough to be happy with that.



    I doubt AJ's offense is going to improve, and their 2-3 year comparatives are just about even.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, I don't see AJ's offense improving either, I just don't see Salty matching last year's productivity, which is why I think AJ could be a slight improvement. The two most important factors to me are the one year length of contract and the familiarity between AJ and Nieves.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon, I don't see AJ's offense improving either, I just don't see Salty matching last year's productivity, which is why I think AJ could be a slight improvement. The two most important factors to me are the one year length of contract and the familiarity between AJ and Nieves.



    Even if Salty does not repeat his 2013 offense, it should be better than AJ's 2013 numbers, so it would take an improvement by AJ to outhit Salty in 2014.

    .272/.297/.425/.722

    AJ will be 37 next year.

     

    Salty's 3+ year Sox numbers:

    .243/.307/.455/.762

    Salty is 29 next year.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    It's no surprise that Ellsbury and Boras would sign with NYC. He's optimized for that park and they had the most money. What a no brainer. But people in baseball forums all over the place were still saying Ellsbury in Boston, and very few were noting NYC as even an option. This was easily projected.

    And put Salty projections into that same cubbyhole. It never made sense at any point in the last 3 years he has been with the team and for God's sake he ended up with the Marlins.

    Start looking at Choo guys. He is probably target A by now for the Sox. It depends upon the cost of course, and the potential demand from other teams, but look who is an available outfield FA next year. Isn't it time to lock down a solid power OF bat like Choo this year? It make go as high as $120 mil to me over 6 years. At that point even my knees get wobbly. Anything under $110 mil and I would sign him. Unfortunately it appears that that will not be enough. Let's hope it is!

    We will not have an availability to get such a guy again for a while:

     Left fielders

    Melky Cabrera (30)
    Chris Denorfia (34)
    Brett Gardner (31)
    Jonny Gomes (34)
    Tony Gwynn Jr. (32)
    Scott Hairston (35)
    Ryan Ludwick (36) - $9MM mutual option with a $4.5MM buyout
    Darnell McDonald (35)
    Seth Smith (32)
    Alfonso Soriano (39)
    Vernon Wells (36)
    Josh Willingham (36)

    Center fielders

    Emilio Bonifacio (30)
    Coco Crisp (35)
    Colby Rasmus (28)
    Denard Span (31) - $9MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Chris Young (31)

    Right fielders

    Norichika Aoki (33)
    Michael Cuddyer (36)
    Chris Denorfia (34)
    Scott Hairston (35)
    Torii Hunter (39)
    Nick Markakis (31) - $17.5MM mutual option; $2MM buyout if club declines
    Alex Rios (34) - $13.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Nate Schierholtz (31)
    Ichiro Suzuki (41)

     

    All that said, I'd still rather spend the money on Tanaka and / or Kuroda. They still represent the best value for our cash.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, you said wait until after Thanksgiving and things would start moving.  It was a logjam/ice jam and now some big pieces are flowing over the dam!

    I thought Ells was gone but the size of that contract shocks me.  I wish him well and appreciate all he accomplished, but I do have some misgivings about his makeup and playing in NY.

    OK, what's the story on Granderson?  Health and contract wise?  Choo might be a fit for our needs but I'm really leery about big contracts now.  I remember a couple years ago we needed a reliever and didn't know where to find the money to get one.  No more having our hands tied, and speaking of that, NYY's?

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I like the Piezynsky deal. I would have just gone with Lavarnway but this way we have a good sub waiting in AAA ball, and we probably will need him. 

    I like intelligent catchers. We got a winner.




    Ya gotta learn to spell his name right!!  Pollack left-handed hitters have had success in Boston.  Of course, as you know, I'm biased...LOL

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    AJ in: Salty out.

    No Bailey and his ~$4M arb.

    No Kalish and his DLs.

     

    $30M minus what AJ gets to pay for a 1Bman, an insurance to JBJ, plus maybe a utility IF'er and another pen arm.



    I do hope they sign Kalish to a minor league deal, he's still pretty young. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Wow, the Yanks continue being the Yanks. I wouldn't have it anyother way either. Lol

    How's AJ at throwing out baserunners? Did Ells even steal a base in the WS? If he did, it wasn't memorable. 

    Stick w/ the plan. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I forgot... Is that a Yankee 1st or 2nd round pick? 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to emp9's comment:

    I forgot... Is that a Yankee 1st or 2nd round pick? 



    By signing 2 QOs, I think the Yanks lose a 1st and a 2nd rounder.

    Our first round pick moves up every time a new team that does not have a protected pick signs their first QO FA.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, you said wait until after Thanksgiving and things would start moving.  It was a logjam/ice jam and now some big pieces are flowing over the dam!

    I thought Ells was gone but the size of that contract shocks me.  I wish him well and appreciate all he accomplished, but I do have some misgivings about his makeup and playing in NY.

    I figured he'd get at least $105M/6 and probably $140M/7, so the number does not shock me. The team he went to did, but I'm glad he went their. That deal will continue to choke the life out of the Yanks. They can continue to keep all their resources tied up with a handful of players. 

    I prefer the balanced approach.

     

    OK, what's the story on Granderson?  Health and contract wise?  Choo might be a fit for our needs but I'm really leery about big contracts now.  I remember a couple years ago we needed a reliever and didn't know where to find the money to get one.  No more having our hands tied, and speaking of that, NYY's?

    I think Choo will sign with the Tigers very soon.

    I'm not sure about Grandy, but he may be more suited for LF than CF.

     

    I think our choices will come down to Napoli vs Beltran, with napoli having the edge right now. We could get both, but we'd have to deal a pitcher to make budget room, and I'm not sure Ben wants two high priced FAs at this point in time.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'd like to keep Naps but I'd also like a young outfielder with power.  I'm fine with JBJ in center if that's the way it goes.  I completely respect Ells, but I don't think we're going to be gnashing our teeth with JBJ out there.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I


    PS, I wouldn't mind seeing Grandy in left, that would take care of those who think we'll miss Ells' speed on the bases.  Put Nava in a package with pitching for ???  How much would Grandy cost?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to emp9's comment:

    I forgot... Is that a Yankee 1st or 2nd round pick? 

     

    For signing Jacoby Ellsbury, the Yankees will forfeit their highest compensatory sandwich-round pick if Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda or Curtis Granderson sign elsewhere. See Article XX, Sec. B(4)(c)(i) on Page 89 of the Collective Bargaining Agreement:

    http://www.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

    The Yankees already forfeited their first-round pick with the signing of Brian McCann.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

    I forgot... Is that a Yankee 1st or 2nd round pick? 

     

    For signing Jacoby Ellsbury, the Yankees will forfeit their highest compensatory sandwich-round pick if Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda or Curtis Granderson sign elsewhere. See Article XX, Sec. B(4)(c)(i) on Page 89 of the Collective Bargaining Agreement:

    http://www.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

    The Yankees already forfeited their first-round pick with the signing of Brian McCann.



    Thanks Hill: nice to know.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Red Sox Notes: Granderson, Ellsbury, Salty, Lavarnway By  Steve Adams [December 4 at 12:54pm CST]

    The Red Sox "haven't ruled out" a pursuit of Curtis Granderson, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com (Twitter link). In light of last night's sudden and surprising agreement between Jacoby Ellsbury and the Yankees, the Red Sox have a need in the outfield, though that could simply be handled by Jackie Bradley Jr. The Sox could use Grandy in either right field or center field, with Shane Victorino occupying the other slot. Here are some more Boston-related news items...

    • Ken Davidoff of the New York Post tweets that Boston's talks with Ellsbury didn't go too far beyond the five-year, $80MM range. That jives with previous reports that the Red Sox didn't want to give Ellsbury $100MM or more and last night's report that their offerwas "a ways off" from that of the Yankees.
    • WEEI.com's Alex Speier reports that the Red Sox have been limiting their offers to free agent catchers to two years so as not to block the paths of top prospects Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart. As such, their best offer to Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a two-year deal that could top out at $18MM after incentives. Saltalamacchia instead agreed to a three-year deal with the Marlins yesterday.
    • The signing of A.J. Pierzynski could spell the end of Ryan Lavarnway's time with the Red Sox, Speier writes in a separate piece. Lavarnway has made a lot of strides defensively over the past few years but still isn't a defensive asset, and his offense has seen a precipitous drop since a 32-homer minor league season in 2011. Since that time, he's hit just 14 homers in 829 plate appearances. The presence of Swihart, Vazquez and Dan Butler creates a logjam that could leave Lavarnway on the outside looking in
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

     

    It's nice to be a free agent on a year when the Yankees do not make the playoffs.   LOL

    Texeira, Burnett, Sabathia (2008) and Ellsbury (2013) have received very generous offers from the Yankees.  

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 3h

    Farrell, on WEEI, spoke of Bogaerts being on the left side of the INF. Meaning he could well play 3B. Suggests Drew still an option

     

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe

    2h

    Farrell says (on WEEI) that De La Rosa will come to ST early to "work on some things." Conditioning surely one of them.

     

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe

    2h

    Farrell spoke of wanting to see Cecchini and Owens in spring training. Be fun to see Owens vs. big league hitters. #redsox

     

     

     

     

     

     

     
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The sooner Bogey starts learning the best position suited for him, 3B, the better.

    I wouldn't sign Drew and give up the pick, but I think we can find a cheap defensive whiz somewhere that allows Bogey to start playing 3B ASAP.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    NAh! 

    Leave Bogaerts at SS! That allows Middlebrooks and/or Cechinni to have a slot at 3rd and maybe even 1st. 

    With Ellsbury, Napoli, Drew and Salty all possibly gone, we could use some offense. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from mattc355. Show mattc355's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    _

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I heard Farrell on the radio today and he really sounded sincere about wanting to bring Drew back. But he also said he wants to bring Napoli back as well. It doesn't make sense to me to have both unless he's planning on four players sharing three spots. I'm not a fan of this, but I have mentioned it before. 1B, 3B and SS will combine for about 1800 at bats for the season. A four man rotation of Bogey, Drew, Middlebrooks and Napoli (and Papi in NL parks) could all see 400-500 at bats each. That could all change if someone gets real hot and demand full-time playing time. Conversely, a player stinking up the place could wind up with much fewer at bats. Reasons that this makes sense are 1) we need the protection for Ortiz that Napoli gives that the younger players will not give early in the season. 2) Signing both Drew and Napoli could mean the end for Middlebrooks and I think it's way too early to give up on his potential. Now I also believe that both Bogey and Middlebrooks will eventually be able to provide protection in the middle of the order. In fact, long-term I see Bogey as our number 3 hitter and Middlebrooks a 5 or 6. Now another fly in the ointment is Cecchini who will need a place to play, possibly as early as this summer. He's for real. But will he end up at 3B, 1B or LF? He may well be the reason we keep Bogey primarily at SS.

    I still think we ultimately sign Napoli and not Drew and our starting infield is Middlebrooks, Bogey, Pedey and Napoli from left to right. But what do I know? I was convinced that the most likely FA to be retained would be Salty.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    I heard Farrell on the radio today and he really sounded sincere about wanting to bring Drew back. But he also said he wants to bring Napoli back as well. It doesn't make sense to me to have both unless he's planning on four players sharing three spots. I'm not a fan of this, but I have mentioned it before. 1B, 3B and SS will combine for about 1800 at bats for the season. A four man rotation of Bogey, Drew, Middlebrooks and Napoli (and Papi in NL parks) could all see 400-500 at bats each. That could all change if someone gets real hot and demand full-time playing time. Conversely, a player stinking up the place could wind up with much fewer at bats. Reasons that this makes sense are 1) we need the protection for Ortiz that Napoli gives that the younger players will not give early in the season. 2) Signing both Drew and Napoli could mean the end for Middlebrooks and I think it's way too early to give up on his potential. Now I also believe that both Bogey and Middlebrooks will eventually be able to provide protection in the middle of the order. In fact, long-term I see Bogey as our number 3 hitter and Middlebrooks a 5 or 6. Now another fly in the ointment is Cecchini who will need a place to play, possibly as early as this summer. He's for real. But will he end up at 3B, 1B or LF? He may well be the reason we keep Bogey primarily at SS.

    I still think we ultimately sign Napoli and not Drew and our starting infield is Middlebrooks, Bogey, Pedey and Napoli from left to right. But what do I know? I was convinced that the most likely FA to be retained would be Salty.



    I agree: either Napoli or Drew: not both.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If they keep any of them it will be Napoli. It's Farrel's job to say how much he would like all these guys back so that some other team will actually sign them and we get the pick. I'm surprised he isn't saying he wants his daughters to marry them. It's his job.

     
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