A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    It's a lot to expect this team to do what they did last year in terms of individual stats. We probably have some regression candidates, including some likelihood of more injury impact. Napoli and Victorino, Ortiz, Pierzynsky and Nava look to me to be likely to regress. but not necessarily by a lot. A lot of the starters will be hard preseed to put up the same numbers this  year.

    To me, it all comes down to starting pitching success and the ability of JBJ and Bogaerts to produce or not. Ellsbury had a lot of impact which didn't show up in the box score. Even Pedey might feel it some. Ellsbury was a huge distraction on the basepaths for pitchers, increasing the number of fastballs seen by Victorino, Pedey, Ortiz and Napoli. They also had to take some pitches they probably were not happy about taking though also.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Couldn't disagree more about individual regressions Boom. One of the most amazing things about last year's run is that it was done without any position player except Ortiz (who's not really a position player at all) having an outstanding or outlier year. True that Nava emerged as a better hitter than ever before but Gomes, Pedey, Middlebrooks all performed below their averages or expectations. And the rest of the regulars like Napoli, Vic, Drew and Salty were very close to career norms. Now I know some of you stat crunchers can pick apart my very general statements, but I tell it like I see it. Only Carp played out of his mind last year and could come back to earth ( we could also be looking at his new normal although I doubt it.) and Ortiz could regress slightly with age. I do believe we are perhaps underestimating the impact of losing Jacoby, although I never would have paid him more than two-thirds of what the Yankees are paying him.

    Amongst the pitchers, Uehara and Buchholz both had outlier seasons. I look for Uehara to come back down to earth some, although his career numbers have always been quite good. As for Buck, I predicted coming out of spring training that he would be a Cy Young contender and he was until he broke down. He is a mystery in that he has some of the nastiest stuff in MLB and maybe just has to learn that not everybody goes to work every day feeling 100% perfect and to deal with it. And Boom about your point about taking Tanaka over Lester, how about waiting until the guy has thrown a pitch on this side of the Pacific before putting him into the HOF. He's pitched to the equivalent of A and AA hitters his entire career! He may turn out to be the real deal but John Lester IS the real deal. He is a workhorse, he's in his prime, he's proven himself on the biggest stage possible and he has one of the best winning percentages in the history of MLB! And you'd cast him aside for a $20mil per year AA pitcher??

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I know that most people in baseball will disagree on Tanaka but Yes, I'd rather have him than Lester. Everyone can feel free to have a field day on that one but Tanaka is 6 years younger and in his prime with an unbelieveable out pitch. We see what a good splitter can do when we see guys like Kuroda and Koji and this guy can control it like they can. His is reputed to be off the charts. I know his fastball can be hit but he can control it well. Great fastball command and an off the charts out pitch add up to a guy who might well project as a true #1. 

    Lester has been great this past year but he was the beer and chicken guy just the year before. I really like Lester but he has only one year of control and he is aging with his free agent year coming up. He will cost someone north of $100 mil as well IF he has a good year in 2014. Let's hope he is as expensive as heck.

    Put Verlander in AAA ball and even he would be hard pressed to be 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    My point being that Tanaka is probably the real deal. It's always a crapshoot with a pitcher. It's always risky. I'd go up to 7 years and $120 mil. He doesn't cost a pick and he's in his prime. He isn't Cano but to me he is the next best FA out there after him, in terms of fit and value to the Sox. Cano is so great we could find a place for him.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'd rather have Tanaka than Lester going forward. He's much younger and his main out pitch has  shown to be superior at helping pitchers be successful as they age. He has possibly the best forkball in baseball. The Redsox of all teams should appreciate that ability, and almost no one in mlb has seen him pitch so he should be devastating for the next 2-3 years in particular.

    It's a tough call though. And I bet more people would take Lester. He's a proven commodity and healthy. Durable. Left handed. He has a lot going for him, including playoff success. I might even change my mind if I keep talking!

    Tanaka has had some pretty tough use. a lot of wear and tear recently.

     

    It is a tough call, but we can afford both Tanaka and Lester as long as we trade Peavy and Dempster.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Some people even think Japanese baseball is equivalent to high A ball. I think a better comparison is that it has a wide range of talent from mlb all stars to guys who would be in A ball potentially. It is a country of 120 million and they are baseball obsessed. Ever watch a game of Japanese baseball in Japan? They are the most rabid fans in the world. At least some of their players have proven to be capable of coming here and dominating. Darvish is a perfect example of that.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    It's a lot to expect this team to do what they did last year in terms of individual stats. We probably have some regression candidates, including some likelihood of more injury impact. Napoli and Victorino, Ortiz, Pierzynsky and Nava look to me to be likely to regress. but not necessarily by a lot. A lot of the starters will be hard preseed to put up the same numbers this  year.

     

    I don't doubt we might see some regression in the players you mentioned or even unexpected ones elsewhere, but there is also a good chance some of these guys could have even better seasons. For example, Napoli has had some big spike seasons seemingly every 3 years, and this is the "3rd year" for him.

    Also, guys like Pedroia, Gomes and Middlebrooks had down seasons in 2013 and could easily make up for any declines from other players.

     

    To me, it all comes down to starting pitching success and the ability of JBJ and Bogaerts to produce or not. Ellsbury had a lot of impact which didn't show up in the box score. Even Pedey might feel it some. Ellsbury was a huge distraction on the basepaths for pitchers, increasing the number of fastballs seen by Victorino, Pedey, Ortiz and Napoli. They also had to take some pitches they probably were not happy about taking though also.

    The lost intangibles of Ellsbury's loss will be hard to overcome, but this team is balanced and deep. I really think we will end up scoring about as much as we did this year.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Wow, Mike Trout was worth $44.9 two years ago and $52.1 mil last year. Unbelievable. And the Angels didn't even make the playoffs.

    IF Bogaerts makes it big he could put up some plus $30 mil years. His positional value is big. If he hits as expected and is even average defensively we are looking at a 5 plus WAR / $30 mil plus guy. What a boost that would be. And he could be a .290 hitting / .875 OPS / 25 HR guy. Very realistic projections for this guy. Some years even better. Some knowledgeable people are expecting even better.

    That alone could replace Ellsbury's value lost. I agree Moon in that we are looking good still next year. Thats why I want to put the pedal to the metal right now. Optimize this team to win now.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Couldn't disagree more about individual regressions Boom. One of the most amazing things about last year's run is that it was done without any position player except Ortiz (who's not really a position player at all) having an outstanding or outlier year. True that Nava emerged as a better hitter than ever before but Gomes, Pedey, Middlebrooks all performed below their averages or expectations. And the rest of the regulars like Napoli, Vic, Drew and Salty were very close to career norms. Now I know some of you stat crunchers can pick apart my very general statements, but I tell it like I see it. Only Carp played out of his mind last year and could come back to earth ( we could also be looking at his new normal although I doubt it.) and Ortiz could regress slightly with age. I do believe we are perhaps underestimating the impact of losing Jacoby, although I never would have paid him more than two-thirds of what the Yankees are paying him.

    Amongst the pitchers, Uehara and Buchholz both had outlier seasons. I look for Uehara to come back down to earth some, although his career numbers have always been quite good. As for Buck, I predicted coming out of spring training that he would be a Cy Young contender and he was until he broke down. He is a mystery in that he has some of the nastiest stuff in MLB and maybe just has to learn that not everybody goes to work every day feeling 100% perfect and to deal with it. And Boom about your point about taking Tanaka over Lester, how about waiting until the guy has thrown a pitch on this side of the Pacific before putting him into the HOF. He's pitched to the equivalent of A and AA hitters his entire career! He may turn out to be the real deal but John Lester IS the real deal. He is a workhorse, he's in his prime, he's proven himself on the biggest stage possible and he has one of the best winning percentages in the history of MLB! And you'd cast him aside for a $20mil per year AA pitcher??



    While I am not ready to annoint Tanaka better than Lester going forward, I do think it is a close call. Scouts have been wrong before, but any big signing with long years is a gamble- even a Lester extension at his age.

    On possible declines from Uehara and Buch, I do not disagree, but even if we get 80% of 2013 production from both of them, but over a full season not partial (in Uehara's case, I mean as a closer for the full season).

    I'm really psyched about the 2014 pitching staff. I will  break it down pitcher by pitcher soon, but in short, here is the "on paper" changes from 2013 to 2014.

    1) Uehara as the closer wire to wire, but perhaps used more sparingly.

    2) Buchholz, Miller and others expected good health.

    3) Peavy for a full season and not just 10 games started.

    The numbers:

    Lost from 2013:

    IP  Pitcher  ERA/WHIP

    37 Aceves  4.86/1.730

    30 Mortnsn 5.34/1.582

    29 Bailey   3.77/1.221

    25 Morales 4.62/1.539

    15 Thorntn 3.52/1.761

    11 de la Torre 6.35/1.765

    10 P Beato  3.60/1.400

    7.1 Hanrahn 9.82/2.182

    1.0 D Bard   9.00/3.000

    That's about 165 IP of combined pretty awful pitching lost.

     

    Also, I expect better or different roles (expanded or reduced) from these 2013 numbers: (besides Uehara and Peavy)

    42 Workman 4.97/1.416

    31 A Miller   2.64/1.370

    30 Webster 8.60/1.813

    28 A Wilson  4.88/1.735

    21 Britton  3.86/1.333

    13 Wright  5.40/1.575

    11 de la Rosa 5.56/1.500

    0 Villareal

    0 Ranaudo, Barnes, Hinojosa, Owens

    171 Dempster (probable reduced role)

    That's about 350 IP or 500 total replaced or adjusted.

     

    Replace or adjust these innings with more from Peavy, Buchholz, maybe Doubront, and Miller plus these additions:

    Ed Mujica: 65 IP  2.78 ERA/ 1.005 WHIP (37 saves)

    2012-2013:  2.91/1.02

    Badenhop: 62 IP 3.47/1.187

    2012-2013:  3.25/1.20

     

    The pitching staff should be much better than 2013, and 2013 was pretty darn good!

     

     

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    You know who I'd trade Bogaerts for right now though. Andrelton Simmons. That guy saved his team 41 runs last year at SS, on top of 19 the year before in only 426 innings played. Now that is Moon's type of SS!

    I think his bat improves over time but that guy makes Iglesias look like a little leaguer!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Wow, Mike Trout was worth $44.9 two years ago and $52.1 mil last year. Unbelievable. And the Angels didn't even make the playoffs.

    IF Bogaerts makes it big he could put up some plus $30 mil years. His positional value is big. If he hits as expected and is even average defensively we are looking at a 5 plus WAR / $30 mil plus guy. What a boost that would be. And he could be a .290 hitting / .875 OPS / 25 HR guy. Very realistic projections for this guy. Some years even better. Some knowledgeable people are expecting even better.

    That alone could replace Ellsbury's value lost. I agree Moon in that we are looking good still next year. Thats why I want to put the pedal to the metal right now. Optimize this team to win now.



    That's why I like the Tanaka idea. We don't lose a draft pick, we don't have to trade prospects, and we can stay under the luxury limit by trading Peavy and Dempster, which would further improve our farm and future.

    Wait until the season starts to extend Lester, and we should be pretty well set going forward with Lester, Tanaka, Buchholz and Doubront under team control for several more years.

    You know who I'd trade Bogaerts for right now though. Andrelton Simmons. That guy saved his team 41 runs last year at SS, on top of 19 the year before in only 426 innings played. Now that is Moon's type of SS!

     

    I think his bat improves over time but that guy makes Iglesias look like a little leaguer!

     

    I'd love to have Simmons, but would love it even more with Bogey by his side at 3B.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think we will be real lucky to even match last year's pitching performance. All those guys except Dempster and Peavy were above projections and Peavy was about where we could expect from his recent performances. Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Buchholz all put us solid numbers.

    Pitching is so flaky usually. Very few pitchers put up great numbers every year. I think it was Olney just recently who didn't even put Boston's rotation in the top 10. You never know what you are really going to get. A lot of it has to do with the number of innings logged the year before. Which for us, is not an ideal stat. 

    Buchholz is probably the key yet again, although it was Lackey to me last year. Can he put the pounds back on and get healthy again. He looks like he is dying out there. Something seriously wrong physically. I don't even want to speculate. He looks real bad physically. I'm not so sure he can pull a rabbit out of the hat again.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Wow, Mike Trout was worth $44.9 two years ago and $52.1 mil last year. Unbelievable. And the Angels didn't even make the playoffs.

    IF Bogaerts makes it big he could put up some plus $30 mil years. His positional value is big. If he hits as expected and is even average defensively we are looking at a 5 plus WAR / $30 mil plus guy. What a boost that would be. And he could be a .290 hitting / .875 OPS / 25 HR guy. Very realistic projections for this guy. Some years even better. Some knowledgeable people are expecting even better.

    That alone could replace Ellsbury's value lost. I agree Moon in that we are looking good still next year. Thats why I want to put the pedal to the metal right now. Optimize this team to win now.



    That's why I like the Tanaka idea. We don't lose a draft pick, we don't have to trade prospects, and we can stay under the luxury limit by trading Peavy and Dempster, which would further improve our farm and future.

    Wait until the season starts to extend Lester, and we should be pretty well set going forward with Lester, Tanaka, Buchholz and Doubront under team control for several more years.

    You know who I'd trade Bogaerts for right now though. Andrelton Simmons. That guy saved his team 41 runs last year at SS, on top of 19 the year before in only 426 innings played. Now that is Moon's type of SS!

     

    I think his bat improves over time but that guy makes Iglesias look like a little leaguer!

     

    I'd love to have Simmons, but would love it even more with Bogey by his side at 3B.




     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I couldn't agree more Moon on that one. Tanaka would put this team on a real solid tragectory going forward the next few years. Having that top starting rotation is huge and how are we going to get that without trading the entire farm or mortgaging the entire team with huge FA signings like Kershaw? It is real tough to line up a starting rotation which can both get you in the playoffs and win when you get there. We have some hope on the farm but realistically there is no one down there who is realistically going to emerge as a #1. We will be lucky to get Owens or Barnes to be #2's even.

    Pitching, pitching, pitching!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    For the record, if we asked 30 mlb GM's if they would trade Lester for Tanaka straight up I bet 27 of them would say no. I recognize that it is a controversial statement to take Tanaka over Lester and in the real world I wouldn't make that trade because I wouldn't have to. Any GM could get another prospect thrown in...etc in order to land Lester. Just saying Tanaka is probably for real. 

    The problem is that both the Dodgers and Yanks probably agree. I think there is less than a 10% chance we sign Tanaka. I'm just hopeful. We just won the World Series. If the Redsox were going to make a statement about staying competitive, signing Tanaka would be a real strong statement.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I think we will be real lucky to even match last year's pitching performance. All those guys except Dempster and Peavy were above projections and Peavy was about where we could expect from his recent performances. Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Buchholz all put us solid numbers.

    Pitching is so flaky usually. Very few pitchers put up great numbers every year. I think it was Olney just recently who didn't even put Boston's rotation in the top 10. You never know what you are really going to get. A lot of it has to do with the number of innings logged the year before. Which for us, is not an ideal stat. 

    Buchholz is probably the key yet again, although it was Lackey to me last year. Can he put the pounds back on and get healthy again. He looks like he is dying out there. Something seriously wrong physically. I don't even want to speculate. He looks real bad physically. I'm not so sure he can pull a rabbit out of the hat again.



    2013:

    We had a new manager.

    We had a new pitching coach.

    We had a more experienced catcher in Salty.

    2014:

    We have better catchers behind the plate in Pierzynski and a healthy Ross.

    We now have Mujica and Badenhop.

    We now have young pithcers a year closer to being positive impact pitchers.

     

    I do not think Lackey's season was a fluke. He is finally healthy.

    I do not think Buch or Uehara's season was a fluke.

    I do not think Lester's return to grace was a fluke.

     

    I do think our 2014 staff looks much better than 2013.

    Yes, pitching projections are sketchy, especially in the pen, but we have a deep staff that can overcome a poor season by a couple of our guys. I remember saying last winter that we had no chance at a ring unless Lester and Buchholz stayed healthy all season and pitched well. That did not happen, but we won anyways.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    It is a tough call, but we can afford both Tanaka and Lester as long as we trade Peavy and Dempster.



    This doesn't really compute.  It's equivalent to saying that if we had traded Peavy and Dempster (probably saving about 25 million) we could have afforded to pay Ellsbury 153 million.

     

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    It is a tough call, but we can afford both Tanaka and Lester as long as we trade Peavy and Dempster.



    This doesn't really compute.  It's equivalent to saying that if we had traded Peavy and Dempster (probably saving about 25 million) we could have afforded to pay Ellsbury 153 million.

     

     



    I didn't mean to imply that the total contractual costs would be even. I'm looking at the luxury tax limit for 2014 and beyond, when I say, " We can afford both Lester and Tanaka".

    Trading Peavy and Dempster would save $27.75M in 2014. Tanak will cost less than that, so we can afford his salary against the limit, and we'd still have some leftover for a July pick-up, if needed.

    I realize paying Tanaka big money over along period is a big gamble, but from what I have heard, he may well be worth it.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I realize paying Tanaka big money over along period is a big gamble, but from what I have heard, he may well be worth it.



    Why are we back in the 'big gamble' mode?  It didn't work out too good last time we handed out megadeals.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, I too like your overviews 2013/2014 on previous page.  Hfx, get your concern and your point is valid--we've all seen the mess when it didn't work.  But this may be a little different.  First, we are a big market team so why shouldn't we (infrequently and judiciously) act like one?   Many here questioned why we needed Crawford anyway as he and Ells were the same.  No one really questions Agon's production or worth.  It was the tandem that put a stranglehold on us.  Do we question the value of top line pitching?  The Dodgers and NYY aren't going after this guy if they think he's a chump.  We had about 300 mil in two everyday players.  Our economics are pretty stable now, and we can afford this guy without going nuts.  I think I would prefer one ace over any everyday player for this team right now.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The way things are shaping up it looks like it might come down to where Tanaka wants to play.  He's going to have plenty of suitors. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

     PS.  We have two or more starters right now and strong position players and young pitchers in the minors that we can trade for any need, mainly a young power hitter.  We are in a strong position as a result of last year's moves.  This one move would be pivotal.  Boom says strike while th iron's hot and Moon says we can make the finances work.  I agree--but I'm not sure the RS will.  Being older I understand being conservative--probably best most of the time--but not all the time.  Sometimes you have to act.

     

     

     

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Couldn't disagree more about individual regressions Boom. One of the most amazing things about last year's run is that it was done without any position player except Ortiz (who's not really a position player at all) having an outstanding or outlier year. True that Nava emerged as a better hitter than ever before but Gomes, Pedey, Middlebrooks all performed below their averages or expectations. And the rest of the regulars like Napoli, Vic, Drew and Salty were very close to career norms. Now I know some of you stat crunchers can pick apart my very general statements, but I tell it like I see it. Only Carp played out of his mind last year and could come back to earth ( we could also be looking at his new normal although I doubt it.) and Ortiz could regress slightly with age. I do believe we are perhaps underestimating the impact of losing Jacoby, although I never would have paid him more than two-thirds of what the Yankees are paying him.

    Amongst the pitchers, Uehara and Buchholz both had outlier seasons. I look for Uehara to come back down to earth some, although his career numbers have always been quite good. As for Buck, I predicted coming out of spring training that he would be a Cy Young contender and he was until he broke down. He is a mystery in that he has some of the nastiest stuff in MLB and maybe just has to learn that not everybody goes to work every day feeling 100% perfect and to deal with it. And Boom about your point about taking Tanaka over Lester, how about waiting until the guy has thrown a pitch on this side of the Pacific before putting him into the HOF. He's pitched to the equivalent of A and AA hitters his entire career! He may turn out to be the real deal but John Lester IS the real deal. He is a workhorse, he's in his prime, he's proven himself on the biggest stage possible and he has one of the best winning percentages in the history of MLB! And you'd cast him aside for a $20mil per year AA pitcher??




    Carp was actually a very highly regarded prospect in the Seattle system. Hill would know better than I. I wonder if Carp suffered from the "Middlebrooks effect" where he just did not play up to expectations when all the pressure was on. For the Red Sox, he had a different job description that he seems to have responded to very well.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Couldn't disagree more about individual regressions Boom. One of the most amazing things about last year's run is that it was done without any position player except Ortiz (who's not really a position player at all) having an outstanding or outlier year. True that Nava emerged as a better hitter than ever before but Gomes, Pedey, Middlebrooks all performed below their averages or expectations. And the rest of the regulars like Napoli, Vic, Drew and Salty were very close to career norms. Now I know some of you stat crunchers can pick apart my very general statements, but I tell it like I see it. Only Carp played out of his mind last year and could come back to earth ( we could also be looking at his new normal although I doubt it.) and Ortiz could regress slightly with age. I do believe we are perhaps underestimating the impact of losing Jacoby, although I never would have paid him more than two-thirds of what the Yankees are paying him.

    Amongst the pitchers, Uehara and Buchholz both had outlier seasons. I look for Uehara to come back down to earth some, although his career numbers have always been quite good. As for Buck, I predicted coming out of spring training that he would be a Cy Young contender and he was until he broke down. He is a mystery in that he has some of the nastiest stuff in MLB and maybe just has to learn that not everybody goes to work every day feeling 100% perfect and to deal with it. And Boom about your point about taking Tanaka over Lester, how about waiting until the guy has thrown a pitch on this side of the Pacific before putting him into the HOF. He's pitched to the equivalent of A and AA hitters his entire career! He may turn out to be the real deal but John Lester IS the real deal. He is a workhorse, he's in his prime, he's proven himself on the biggest stage possible and he has one of the best winning percentages in the history of MLB! And you'd cast him aside for a $20mil per year AA pitcher??




    Carp was actually a very highly regarded prospect in the Seattle system. Hill would know better than I. I wonder if Carp suffered from the "Middlebrooks effect" where he just did not play up to expectations when all the pressure was on. For the Red Sox, he had a different job description that he seems to have responded to very well.



    That is why I wrote that we could be looking at his new normal. But the fact is that to me his swing is a tad too long to sustain the production he put together last year.  I would love to see it, but I wouldn't be crushed if he were moved in a deal while his value is at its highest.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I realize paying Tanaka big money over along period is a big gamble, but from what I have heard, he may well be worth it.



    Why are we back in the 'big gamble' mode?  It didn't work out too good last time we handed out megadeals.

     



    Getting gun shy as a result of a couple recent failures is not always the best way to go.

    Remember, we also gave longterm deals to AGon who brought us a lot of prospects and salary space when traded along with CC and JB.

    Remember, we just extended Pedroia.

    I know it would hurt if we paid something like $100M/6 for Tanaka only to have him turn out to be a #4-5 starter, but extending Lester or trading 4-5 prospects for a bonafide solid starter is a big gamble as well.

    The thing about signing Tanaka, is that we will still have all our prospects and draft picks, so if Tanaka doesn't work out, at least we still have Owens, Ranaudo, Barnes, Webster, Ball, Workman, Britton, Johnson, Stankiewicz and others on the team.

     

     
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