A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think I described his splitter as off the charts just yesterday. Do they read our stuff or what!

    We don't have a lot of starting pitching talent signed beyond next year. We potentially lose Peavy and Lester next year. Dempster the year after.

    I don't want to count on what we have in AAA. At the same time, I think we all recognize this contract is probably going to be beyond our payroll guidelines. I'm just saying I hope we look at it strongly. If it gets crazy as in $150 mil ( heh, it might ), then let's hope they do pass. We don't have money burning a hole in our pocket.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Boom, I can understand your logic and desire to get Tanaka.  Actually, myself,
    I don't think it would be a bad idea.  If the reports on that splitter are as good as they say, he's a winner.  We all know what a difference a splitter can make...look at Koji.

    Yet, it would be even better if his talent translates to our baseball as compared to theirs....size.  Darvish didn't seem to have any problems.

    Unfortunately,  I just don't think that Ben C. and company are going to go the money route.  Now, if we wake up tomorrow and read of a few trades, it would tell us something.  But, as it stands now, I doubt it. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I think I described his splitter as off the charts just yesterday. Do they read our stuff or what!

    We don't have a lot of starting pitching talent signed beyond next year. We potentially lose Peavy and Lester next year. Dempster the year after.

    I don't want to count on what we have in AAA. At the same time, I think we all recognize this contract is probably going to be beyond our payroll guidelines. I'm just saying I hope we look at it strongly. If it gets crazy as in $150 mil ( heh, it might ), then let's hope they do pass. We don't have money burning a hole in our pocket.




    We lose Peavy and Dempster after 2014.

    We lose Lester after 2014, unless we gamble and extend him at big bucks.

    We lose Lackey after 2015.

    The only known SP'ers we have under team control beyond 2015 are Buchholz (injury risk) and Doubront (still not a proven go to guy).

    Yes, we have many fine pitching prospects that should fill a slot or two by 2016 (Ranaudo, Barnes, Webster, Owens, Workman, Britton, or others), but adding Tanaka should really solidify our rotation beyond the next couple years.

    Even if we sign Tanaka and extend Lester, we'd still only have 4 SP'ers for 2016. If two prospects earn a slot, then it will be easy to trade from strength.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Boom, I can understand your logic and desire to get Tanaka.  Actually, myself, 
    I don't think it would be a bad idea.  If the reports on that splitter are as good as they say, he's a winner.  We all know what a difference a splitter can make...look at Koji.

    Yet, it would be even better if his talent translates to our baseball as compared to theirs....size.  Darvish didn't seem to have any problems.

    Unfortunately,  I just don't think that Ben C. and company are going to go the money route.  Now, if we wake up tomorrow and read of a few trades, it would tell us something.  But, as it stands now, I doubt it. 

     

    I would not bet on the Sox getting Tanaka. The odds are probably at least 10 to 1 against us.

    I do see Tanaka as a Uehara as a starter.

    Like Mo, the batters might know what's coming every pitch but still not be able to hit it.

    I'm still thinking Dempster or Peavy will be dealt no matter what happens with Drew or Tanaka, but both would have to go to get Tanaka. If we got Drew and Tanaka, maybe we could stay under the limit by trading Peavy, Dempster and Gomes. That's $32.75M total.

    Like I said, I doubt it happens, but I really like this guy.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I've been researching WAR values a little recently and it appears a FA pitcher is less likely to stay healthy and meet projections based upon WAR values going into the contract. Just more likelihood to get hurt as a potential FA player. In some ways it is better to sign FA position players than it is FA pitchers.

    Also, a top position player is generally worth more than a top pitcher in terms of WAR value. And it's not even close in some instances. A Justin Verlander, for example, never topping $40 mil in value but Mike Trout passing $49 mil the last 2 years in a row.

    Interesting huh. When so many of us, me included, are all about signing top pitching.

    A strong case could be made, in my view, of focusing on drafting pitching and signing FA position players. At the same time, isn't it true that generally position players get the bigger contracts and would cost more with this approach. It's a quandry.

    I lean towards looking at it in a very specific, need focused, way. Every team needs at least 2 top starters to have much of a chance in the playoffs. Given the propensity for injuries and the fluctuating success of even many top pitchers the reality is that most teams need to stockpile at least 3-4 really solid starting pitchers in the hope of having 2 "hot" ones in the playoffs. Ergo trading Peavy last year. That #5 starter is almost an afterthought by the time playoffs hit. But in order to have at least top top starters, you better have some options in September.

    If you have those guys you don't need to spend money for them. And often drafting or trading for great young prospect pitching is a top priority in baseball. A Michael Wacha is a gold mine and St Louis knew that even early in the year, and made adjustments in his schedule to make him available at year end, and being an extremely smart baseball organization they came within one game of pulling that off perfectly.

    But possibly the top priority in baseball, for a major market team, is to ensure that there is a steady flow of those September pitching opportunities available when needed. And that is one tough challenge. One very expensive need to fulfill.

    Just ask the Yankees. They are all about that. Or the Dodgers who are considering offering Kershw $300 mil. It's gonna get crazy folks.

    I personally think if the Redsox bring Drew back that is a borderline insane decision. We need those draft picks to optimize our chances of future success.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I personally think if the Redsox bring Drew back that is a borderline insane decision.



    There's no need to use hyperbole like that to try to make a point.  Drew is a good player.  He had a 3.4 WAR last year (FanGraphs).  From all accounts the Sox will only sign him at a price they really like.   

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    I personally think if the Redsox bring Drew back that is a borderline insane decision.

     



    There's no need to use hyperbole like that to try to make a point.  Drew is a good player.  He had a 3.4 WAR last year (FanGraphs).  From all accounts the Sox will only sign him at a price they really like.   

     

     



    Agreed. Free from injury and broken ankle rehab, Drew will have a very good year this year, wherever he lands. I would not be against a short term (1-2 years) contract at a price that the Sox like. However, I strongly prefer to see the kids play (Middy and Bogey). Nevertheless, Drew will almost certainly be a better player this year, which means that he will probably move even higher on the SS rankings this year.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Drew will:

    1) Cost us around $10 mil per year, and potentially even more, and put us over the luxury tax limit under current payroll, costing us about $25 mil in revenue sharing this year alone unless we trade off some of our current salaries.

    2) Cost us a pick which could really help us going forward in developing additional talent in a cost effective manner. Expected value of that pick is about $7 mil in my evaluation.

    3) Cost either Middlebrooks or Bogaerts valuable playing time and potentially restrain their player value both short term and long term.

    And for what? Would we be a significantly better team if we retained Drew as compared to playing Bogaerts and Middlebrooks? I think not. I would let Drew walk in a heartbeat and I'm very confident that is what ends up happening.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from seabeachfred. Show seabeachfred's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Drew will:

    1) Cost us around $10 mil per year, and potentially even more, and put us over the luxury tax limit under current payroll, costing us about $25 mil in revenue sharing this year alone unless we trade off some of our current salaries.

    2) Cost us a pick which could really help us going forward in developing additional talent in a cost effective manner. Expected value of that pick is about $7 mil in my evaluation.

    3) Cost either Middlebrooks or Bogaerts valuable playing time and potentially restrain their player value both short term and long term.

    And for what? Would we be a significantly better team if we retained Drew as compared to playing Bogaerts and Middlebrooks? I think not. I would let Drew walk in a heartbeat and I'm very confident that is what ends up happening.




    Hey Red----you have it totally wired.  There is no reason to sign Drew.  Look, right now Cherington has accumulated a wealth of good cheer and get out of jail cards.  We're coming off a WS Title that no one saw coming and it was his moves last winter that helped bring that about.  I think fans would give him a lot of leeway to continue a semi-youth movement  that could make us solid contenders for the rest of the decade.

    All Drew does is cost us money, a draft pick, block Middlebrooks and maybe later Cecchini, and for what?  A guy who can't hit left handers with a paddle (196 this past season)?  A guy who turned down a QO of $14 million because he was greedy?  Unlike some people on this board and others, I feel WMB just had some growing sophomore season pains this year, but he and Bogaerts are capable of giving us a solid left side of the infield for the next decade both in the field and at the plate because both are capable of hitting 30 homers.

    Farrell has the hots for Drew but Cherington would be wise to pass on him and get the youth movement started because even with Will, Bogey and Jackie in the lineup, we still have veterans like Papi, Pedroia, Napoli, Victorino, Gomes and o thers to show them the way.  2014 is a perfect time to move forward on this.  Let Drew go play elsewhere if any team will have him.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Drew will:

    1) Cost us around $10 mil per year, and potentially even more, and put us over the luxury tax limit under current payroll, costing us about $25 mil in revenue sharing this year alone unless we trade off some of our current salaries.

    2) Cost us a pick which could really help us going forward in developing additional talent in a cost effective manner. Expected value of that pick is about $7 mil in my evaluation.

    3) Cost either Middlebrooks or Bogaerts valuable playing time and potentially restrain their player value both short term and long term.

    And for what? Would we be a significantly better team if we retained Drew as compared to playing Bogaerts and Middlebrooks? I think not. I would let Drew walk in a heartbeat and I'm very confident that is what ends up happening.



    Were we a significantly better team in 2013 when Drew was playing instead of Middlebrooks?  Yes.  Drew's WAR was 3.4 in 124 games, Middlebrooks' was a dismal 0.3 in 94 games.  That's significant.  Significant enough to put WMB on the bench in the postseason.

    I think Bogey and WMB as our everyday left side is a shaky proposition.  Not because of Bogey but because of WMB.

    Anyway, we'll see how it shakes out. 

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I've been researching WAR values a little recently and it appears a FA pitcher is less likely to stay healthy and meet projections based upon WAR values going into the contract. Just more likelihood to get hurt as a potential FA player. In some ways it is better to sign FA position players than it is FA pitchers.

    Also, a top position player is generally worth more than a top pitcher in terms of WAR value. And it's not even close in some instances. A Justin Verlander, for example, never topping $40 mil in value but Mike Trout passing $49 mil the last 2 years in a row.

    Interesting huh. When so many of us, me included, are all about signing top pitching.

    A strong case could be made, in my view, of focusing on drafting pitching and signing FA position players. At the same time, isn't it true that generally position players get the bigger contracts and would cost more with this approach. It's a quandry.

    I lean towards looking at it in a very specific, need focused, way. Every team needs at least 2 top starters to have much of a chance in the playoffs. Given the propensity for injuries and the fluctuating success of even many top pitchers the reality is that most teams need to stockpile at least 3-4 really solid starting pitchers in the hope of having 2 "hot" ones in the playoffs. Ergo trading Peavy last year. That #5 starter is almost an afterthought by the time playoffs hit. But in order to have at least top top starters, you better have some options in September.

    If you have those guys you don't need to spend money for them. And often drafting or trading for great young prospect pitching is a top priority in baseball. A Michael Wacha is a gold mine and St Louis knew that even early in the year, and made adjustments in his schedule to make him available at year end, and being an extremely smart baseball organization they came within one game of pulling that off perfectly.

    But possibly the top priority in baseball, for a major market team, is to ensure that there is a steady flow of those September pitching opportunities available when needed. And that is one tough challenge. One very expensive need to fulfill.

    Just ask the Yankees. They are all about that. Or the Dodgers who are considering offering Kershw $300 mil. It's gonna get crazy folks.

    I personally think if the Redsox bring Drew back that is a borderline insane decision. We need those draft picks to optimize our chances of future success.



    I haven't been able to post for more than a day due to the problems with the message window showing the dreaded "<br/>  ".

    I get your concern about signing a pitcher to big money longterm vs a positional player, but there is one important factor that makes this different: age of the pitcher.

    Most big free agent pitchers are 28-34+ not 25 like Tanaka. That makes a huge difference.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    While I do not think we should sign Drew this winter, I do see the possibility as having some pluses...

    As to these points:

     

    Drew will:

    1) Cost us around $10 mil per year, and potentially even more, and put us over the luxury tax limit under current payroll, costing us about $25 mil in revenue sharing this year alone unless we trade off some of our current salaries.

    No way, I want Drew if it puts us over the limit. So, I look at it like this: we trade Dempster for a prospect, and I'd much rather have Drew than Dempster (see the following reasons).

     

    2) Cost us a pick which could really help us going forward in developing additional talent in a cost effective manner. Expected value of that pick is about $7 mil in my evaluation.

    I agree, the cost of about $7M for the lost pick tilts the decision to a "no" for me, but we could possibly get a pick after Drew's 1 or 2 year deal is over, and what is the value of Bogaerts at age 28 vs Bogaerts at the age of 22 worth? Maybe way more than $7M, especially in today's rising market value.

     

    3) Cost either Middlebrooks or Bogaerts valuable playing time and potentially restrain their player value both short term and long term.

    I diagree, if one plays in the minors, it hardly restrains their growth, especially if Bogey gets a chance to learn the 3B position in AAA to start the 2014 season. The "longterm" value of Bogey would increase, if we gain the extra year of team control- a year in Bogey's prime and not in his developing years.

     

    And for what? Would we be a significantly better team if we retained Drew as compared to playing Bogaerts and Middlebrooks? I think not. I would let Drew walk in a heartbeat and I'm very confident that is what ends up happening.

    Drew is better than Middlebrooks (if we play Bogey at 3B). Drew is a much better fielder than Bogey at SS right now. Having 2 options at 3B greatly improves the odds of a good year from that position.

     

    Like I said, I'd prefer the draft pick, and we could upgrade at another position by trading Dempster and/or Peavy, but if I had to choose between Dempster or Drew: I'd take Drew.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    We should trade Dempster just to dump salary. We will get nothing for him. We will be lucky as heck to even get his salary moved.

    At some point with every team we need to gamble a little. My bet is that Middlebrooks and Bogaerts is a similar WAR to Bogaerts and Drew if both options play all year. And that $10 mil saved could clearly be useful in other areas.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    My bet is that Middlebrooks and Bogaerts is a similar WAR to Bogaerts and Drew if both options play all year. And that $10 mil saved could clearly be useful in other areas.

    What you're really betting is that Middlebrooks will improve significantly over last year.  That's certainly possible.  But there are also good reasons to doubt it.  It's not as though he was showing improvement at the end of the year last year.  In fact, as moon as pointed out, he in effect lost his job twice last year.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Middlebrooks had several major injuries last year. And he was trending up generally after he came back from the demotion. If the guy hits .270 with 30 HR pop what the heck is wrong with that, as a slightly below average defensive 3rd baseman at near mlb minimum salary? Even if he hits .250 with 20 HR pop that is basically good at his salary.

    As I mentioned earlier, I think it's borderline insane or at least bad judgement to pay over $10 mil per year to bring Drew back while losing a pick over it and essentially gain potentially little beyond some added injury depth.

    If they just don't think Middlebrooks is going to cut it then maybe they trade him if the offer is real good but you still then have to pay his increased cost and lose a pick over it. 

    I will be shocked if they bring Drew back. I don't care what Farrell says. It's not going to happen. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    What do you guys think Tanaka ends up costing. My bet is $140 mil counting the posting fee. It's going to get crazy.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    More trouble with this site.... UGH!!!

     

    Middlebrooks had several major injuries last year.

    Middy did battle injuries, but I'm not sure I'd call them "Major" or "several major".

    He missed less than 2 weeks at the end of May and less than a week later on in June.

    And he was trending up generally after he came back from the demotion.

    He was demoted in the playoffs when healthy. I'm not sure I'd call that trending up.

     

    If the guy hits .270 with 30 HR pop what the heck is wrong with that, as a slightly below average defensive 3rd baseman at near mlb minimum salary? Even if he hits .250 with 20 HR pop that is basically good at his salary.

    His career BA is .254 with an OBP of .294. The 30+ HR power is great, and I have confidence he can field better in 2014 and maybe get his OBP over .310, but he is still a gamble. 

    We are better with Drew than Dempster, but those aren't our only two choices, so I get your points.

     

    As I mentioned earlier, I think it's borderline insane or at least bad judgement to pay over $10 mil per year to bring Drew back while losing a pick over it and essentially gain potentially little beyond some added injury depth.

    I wouldn't call it "borderline insane", but I agree we could do better by trading Dempster, finding a cheap but great fielding SS and upgrading elsewhere or waiting until July to see where we need the most help.

     

    If they just don't think Middlebrooks is going to cut it then maybe they trade him if the offer is real good but you still then have to pay his increased cost and lose a pick over it. 

    The pick has real value, but if Middy flames, it won't be easy to find someone when desperate, unless we just go with the raw Cecchini.

     

    I will be shocked if they bring Drew back. I don't care what Farrell says. It's not going to happen. 

    What if nobody offers him 2+ years? What if we can get him for $8-10M/1?

    Then, we might offer him a QO after 2014, if he has another good season.  If he refuses (unsure), we still get a pick.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think Middlebrooks tried to play through that rib injury and just couldn't do it well. It effected him most of the year to a large degree, just like it did Ellsbury when he was injured in a similar manner. I remember seeing it and thinking no way he was going to play through that but as a former football player he tried. A lot of guys struggle coming back from wrist injuries as well. It takes time. I'm very confident he comes back well next year.

    When we evaluate Middlebrooks, what were his numbers when he was healthy? That is the most important data and in that instance he was great. That first year he was a potential #5 guy.

    I think we should take the pick for God's sake with Drew. We may never get him to decline a QO again. It is as close to a no brainer as there is in the entire off season, in our situation. We don't have a lot of money setting around under the luxury tax threshhold. Every dime we have is needed in other areas including even the potential Dempster dump money ( Peavy dump money as well ). We can upgrade the team more by spending that money in other areas. Drew is not that big an upgrade, if any, than Middlebrooks going forward. And neither of them should be starting in place of Bogaerts.

    Middlebrooks was benched to make room in last year's playoffs for Bogaerts in the lineup and considering how well Bogaerts did there is no shame in that. It's not like Drew was lighting things up with his sub .200 BA ( way under .200 if I remember correctly).

    I'd like to have every good player in the world on my team but at some point we have to make decisions, and NWIH Drew comes back to this team. They are saying good things and stringing us along to help him get a multiyear deal. I think they did the same thing too a lesser degree with Napoli but surprise, surprise he takes the 2 year deal. With Drew, I doubt if they are offering anything close to where he wants to be. It is just a bad baseball decision to bring him back under almost any scenario short of a major injury to an existing starter.

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Our worst nightmare ( almost ) is Drew goes to the Yanks, which is actually what I project. The Arod situation might well be holding things up there. They need a 3rd baseman and potentially a 2nd basemen. I would think the Jeter situation should give them substantial pause as well. I think Drew is a Yankee waiting to happen. I could see him as a Met also but my bet is he is hanging around long enough to be a Yankee.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Call me crazy but I think Cechinni will be ready to help us if need be at 3rd by year end. Probably even sooner. That guy is as close to a lock as a major league hitter as there is in the minors. He led all of milb in OBP last year? He is a bonifide lock as a major league hitter. It's just a matter of time before we see him somewhere in our lineup. And it could be the OF as much as the infield.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    What in the world do we need Drew for when we have the left side covered so well with tremendous young players?

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Middlebrooks' issues last year were not health issues.  He had a 3-homer game on April 7.  He played 139 games between Boston and Pawtucket.  When he was hitting the ball he was ripping it.  His problem was his terrible approach at the plate, evidenced by an ungodly 5 to 1 ratio of strikeouts to walks. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    So much for Drew going to the Yanks:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/yankees-will-not-sign-stephen-drew.html

    Texiera better have a good year because I wouldn't count on much more from that infield.

     
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