A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Middlebrooks' issues last year were not health issues.  He had a 3-homer game on April 7.  He played 139 games between Boston and Pawtucket.  When he was hitting the ball he was ripping it.  His problem was his terrible approach at the plate, evidenced by an ungodly 5 to 1 ratio of strikeouts to walks. 



    Did you see the rib injury? the guy clearly got body slammed. It looked real bad but he was playing again in a week. I'd be willing to bet it effected him all year.

    And he was overcoming  a wrist injury from the year before, which often takes time as it did with Ortiz.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Call me crazy but I think Cechinni will be ready to help us if need be at 3rd by year end. Probably even sooner. That guy is as close to a lock as a major league hitter as there is in the minors. He led all of milb in OBP last year? He is a bonifide lock as a major league hitter. It's just a matter of time before we see him somewhere in our lineup. And it could be the OF as much as the infield.



    You are crazy! ;-) But correct!

    I can see Drew playing better this year, but I hope the Red Sox play the kids. I would rather overpay for Tanaka (pitching) than to get a middle infielder that we might not need.

    Your concern is spot on as far as I am concerned. Drew creates a logjam for our younger players. If Middlebrooks does not do well by the All Star break, consider bringing in Cechinni and dealing Middlebrooks. 

    Bogey made it no secret that he wants to play SS. We already traded a premium defensive SS, so management is obviously looking for an SS that can hit. Bogey is that guy. I like the ice water running through his veins! He will be adequate defensively.

    Play the kids.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Boom, I agree we have better options than paying Drew with the money saved by trading Dempster (saving about $10M), but answer me this:

    If you had to choose one or the other, are we better off in 2014 with Dew at $10M/1 (estimate of what we saved by trading Dempster) or Dempster?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'd keep Dempster and then trade him rather than sign Drew, add $10 million in cost and probably lose a pick as a result. I wouldn't sign Drew even at $5 mil. At $4.9 mil though he would have a deal! And then I would probably trade Middlebrooks!

    To me it is very important for every GM to create "value". If they play Middlebrooks and Bogaerts they have a chance to add a tremendous amout of "value" to the roster. Why is that important? Well, consider what happens when you make a trade. If you have more value on your roster, you can get back more in a trade.

    For example, if KC had held onto Myers and Odorizi, they probably would have created more than $100 mil in player value instead of what happened when they traded them for 2 years of $10 mil type control of James Shields and 4-5 years of control of Wade Davis. Most analysts in hindsight think they got hosed:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/top-8-reasons-wil-myers-james-shields-trade-083859853--mlb.html

    What if we had sat Iglesias in AAA rather than given him a chance in mlb. Well we never would have gotten Peavy back in return if that had happened.

    No doubt that sometimes a prospect will fail and you get relatively little value out of them but the chance of a hit prospect like Myers is so big that often letting them play is better. And you could make a strong case that Middlebrooks in not at optimum value right now but he may be worth a small fortune if he comes back anywhere near his rookie year levels.

    Consider the situation with Bogaerts. For God's sake let the kid play and let him add value like the projected ROY candidate he is likely to be. He's this year's potential Will Myers. And some here want to lose a pick, lose $10 million in revenue and reduce his potential value proposition?

    I don't get it at all.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    And if Middy bombs out, his value lessens.

    You didn't really answer my question about 2014 only: would we be better with Drew or Dempster in 2014?

    I realize those are by far not the only choices, and the draft pick would maybe change our future, if the pick pans out, but talking 2014 only, who would help us more?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Consider the situation with Bogaerts. For God's sake let the kid play and let him add value like the projected ROY candidate he is likely to be. He's this year's potential Will Myers. And some here want to lose a pick, lose $10 million in revenue and reduce his potential value proposition?

    I don't get it at all.

    Wil started 2013 in AAA. I think the Rays gained a year of control by waiting.

    Not a good example to use in your argument.

     

    I'm not saying I am for starting Bogey in AAA, but I was just pointing out that there is a benefit to our future by doing so, just as the draft pick tied to the Drew question can benefit our future.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Poll: The Best Transaction Of 2013 By  Jeff Todd [January 1 at 1:20am CST]

    As baseball fans around the world mark the end of 2013, let's take one more look back before plowing ahead to 2014. As always, all manner of different MLB transactions went down this past year, and each and every one was documented by MLB Trade Rumors. Signings, extensions, trades, and more -- every move took place in a different context and was subjected to public scrutiny. 

    So, now that we have the benefit of looking back at the year as a whole, which single move was the best, considering the particular situation and what we now know? Was it a wise extension, a nifty trade, or a big free agent signing? I browsed through the MLBTRTransaction Tracker and came up with a (highly subjective) list of my favorite moves over the past year. Though the some moves have already begun to bear fruit, while others await a new season, each still has years to go until it can be evaluated in its entirety. Nevertheless, I think it will be interesting to see how MLBTR readers view things.

    Here are the nine candidates I chose, along with a brief synopsis of the reasons why they merit consideration. (Needless to say, feel free to disagree with my choices in the comments.)

    Extensions

    • White Sox extend LHP Chris Sale for five years, $32.5MM -- Chicago locked up a young ace-caliber pitcher for the same type of contract that has been used to secure other good young arms. But Sale may be the best of the bunch, and he signed his deal just before new money and spending patterns may have broken the mold of young starter extensions. 
    • Brewers extend CF Carlos Gomez for three years, $24MM -- Talk about buying low. Milwaukee locked up Gomez for his first three free agent-eligible seasons, right before the center fielder broke out with a stellar 8.4 rWAR campaign. While I won't proffer a guess as to what he'd ultimately have commanded in free agency this offseason, I think it is safe to say it would be multiples of his actual deal.
    • Diamondbacks extend 1B Paul Goldschmidt five years, $32MM -- This one does not require much explanation. Goldschmidt signed his extension with Arizona after a very promising run in his first season of full-time action. Then, he nearly won an MVP award.
    • Red Sox extend 2B Dustin Pedroia for eight years, $110MM -- The heart of the Sox has been worth at least three wins above replacement in every season he has seen regular action (and even reached that mark in the 75 games he played in 2010). His $13.75MM average annual value looks quite affordable compared to the $24MM guaranteed on average annually to Robinson Cano for the next decade.

    Trades

    • Nationals acquire RHP Doug Fister for LHP Robbie Ray, IF Steve Lombardozzi, and LHP Ian Krol -- Fister has been one of the best ten pitchers in the game over the last three years, by fWAR, and has two seasons of reasonably-priced arbitration eligibility still to come. Yet the Nats were able to bring him in for a good-but-not-great prospect and two players with seemingly limited ceilings.
    • Tigers acquire SS Jose Iglesias for OF Avisail Garcia -- Even if you think that this was an even-value deal, it must be counted as a win for Detroit. Why? Just look at the haul that Matt Garza brought to serve as a short-term rental. GM Dave Dombrowski not only filled a sudden and unexpected hole during a key part of the season, but managed to adapt to Jhonny Peralta's suspension in a way that arguably enhanced the club's long-term health as well.
    • Braves acquire LF Justin Upton and 3B Chris Johnson for UT Martin Prado, RHPRandall Delgado, SS Nick Ahmed, RHP Zeke Spruill, and 1B Brandon Drury -- The signature trade of the 2013 offseason was a coup for Atlanta, in ways expected and not. Upton provided a strong season, even if he did not keep up his torrid start over the course of the year. But the real stunner was the huge campaign from Johnson; he was more productive than Prado, the main piece that the Braves gave up.

    Signings

    • Red Sox sign 1B Mike Napoli for one year, $5MM -- While the limited guarantee came only after Napoli's original three-year deal fell apart over health concerns, GM Ben Cherington still deserves kudos for holding together the relationship. Even as he limited the club's exposure with a minimal $5MM promise, Cherington got his man into Fenway and held onto the upside. Needless to say, it worked out well for Boston, which was happy to pay Napoli his $8MM in earned incentives (and to lock him up to another seemingly solid deal for the club).
    • Yankees sign C Brian McCann for five years, $85MM -- No, we don't know how this deal will turn out. And yes, there have been other big-money signings to consider. But, to me at least, this contract stands out amongst recent major free agent signings for its value potential. Not only does McCann take over a spot that had been filled essentially at replacement level, but the limited length of the deal lowers the risk compared to other top-flight players that have signed. And it comes with upside, as the slugging lefty could reach new heights at Yankee Stadium and can take plenty of at-bats at DH to preserve his legs.
     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    And if Middy bombs out, his value lessens.

    You didn't really answer my question about 2014 only: would we be better with Drew or Dempster in 2014?

    I realize those are by far not the only choices, and the draft pick would maybe change our future, if the pick pans out, but talking 2014 only, who would help us more?



    OK Moon. 

    If we sign Drew for $10 mil and trade Dempster. I'm assuming you can get all that salary moved which we both know is a huge assumption. We lose a probable draft pick. We have less flexibility to stay under the luxury tax limit and less flexibility to deal with any injuries because we will no longer have Dempster to trade. Of course we would have Drew to trade but what do we gain then? We've already lost the pick and have similar trade value now available to trade.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Notice he didn't say anything about signing Napoli last winter. That deal didn't make the cut.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Consider the situation with Bogaerts. For God's sake let the kid play and let him add value like the projected ROY candidate he is likely to be. He's this year's potential Will Myers. And some here want to lose a pick, lose $10 million in revenue and reduce his potential value proposition?

    I don't get it at all.

    Wil started 2013 in AAA. I think the Rays gained a year of control by waiting.

    Not a good example to use in your argument.

     

    I'm not saying I am for starting Bogey in AAA, but I was just pointing out that there is a benefit to our future by doing so, just as the draft pick tied to the Drew question can benefit our future.



    The point was that it was a bad trade FOR KC. KC didn't add value before trading him. They bailed on a guy who put up huge numbers just the year before and was the consensus potential ROY. 

    Middlebrooks's value may go up or it may go down, but to me considering the injuries and the numbers he had put up in years prior to 2013, I think he probably adds value if he stays and plays.

    He hit .276 after coming back from AAA. I'm fine with that with his power potential.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    And we all want Bogaerts to play and add value don't we. He is this year's potential Will Myers. Bogaerts might end up being of more value than Ellsbury was. Why not play him?

    So the question is Middlebrooks or Drew probably right?

    I think we agree Moon. Take the pick right?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    For example, if KC had held onto Myers and Odorizi, they probably would have created more than $100 mil in player value instead of what happened when they traded them for 2 years of $10 mil type control of James Shields and 4-5 years of control of Wade Davis. Most analysts in hindsight think they got hosed:



    I agree that was a very bad trade by KC.  I can't understand trading a hitting prospect as good as Myers for what they got back. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    And if Middy bombs out, his value lessens.

    You didn't really answer my question about 2014 only: would we be better with Drew or Dempster in 2014?

    I realize those are by far not the only choices, and the draft pick would maybe change our future, if the pick pans out, but talking 2014 only, who would help us more?



    OK Moon. 

    If we sign Drew for $10 mil and trade Dempster. I'm assuming you can get all that salary moved which we both know is a huge assumption. We lose a probable draft pick. We have less flexibility to stay under the luxury tax limit and less flexibility to deal with any injuries because we will no longer have Dempster to trade. Of course we would have Drew to trade but what do we gain then? We've already lost the pick and have similar trade value now available to trade.



    So, is that a choice of Dempster answer?

     

    I'm pretty sure we could trade Dempster and pay nothing, but someone would take him if we paid $3.25M of his $13.25M making him and Drew a wash financially.

    Like I said, I agree on  not signing Drew, keeping the draft pick, and using the money from a Dempster trade elsewhere, but for 2014 alone, to me, Drew is clearly more helpful to our current roster than Dempster is.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Notice he didn't say anything about signing Napoli last winter. That deal didn't make the cut.



    To me, $13M for Napoli's 2013 season should have made the list, especially when you factor in that only $5M was guaranteed.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Is Napoli's signing not the second-last one on the list, highlighted in bright red?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Is Napoli's signing not the second-last one on the list, highlighted in bright red?



    Right, maybe boom meant the most recent signing.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Is Napoli's signing not the second-last one on the list, highlighted in bright red?



    Right, maybe boom meant the most recent signing.



    Yeah. My bad. That's what I get when I post at 5 in the morning!

    No doubt that Napoli at $5 mil guaranteed was solid.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Thinking about it Moon, both Dempster or Drew would be injury depth options to me so I think I would still prefer Dempster. Most would think Dempster is less likely to earn his keep though but we are more likely to need a starter due to an injury. We don't have good depth at SS though so it's maybe a wash.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Thinking about it Moon, both Dempster or Drew would be injury depth options to me so I think I would still prefer Dempster. Most would think Dempster is less likely to earn his keep though but we are more likely to need a starter due to an injury. We don't have good depth at SS though so it's maybe a wash.



    Your supreme faith in Middy rivals that of ....  say...

    ... Josh Reddick.

    Undecided

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    boomer you did not make the Poster of the Year ballot once again! Ha Ha !

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Boom, you are my Pre ST Poster of the Year.  You have been very animated, vocal, committed, and creative since the end of the season.  I've already said when you first put forward your ideas about going after the best pitching possible--I thought you were nuts.  But slowly as you repeatedly advocated your plan, I started to see the value.  Now I want it to work out that way--I just don't know if the RS see it that way.  And it's starting to sound like Moon is seeing it that way too.  I think we all want to get that draft pick and see the kids play as a step to the future.  If I was answering that question, I'd say Drew, for this year only, but Dempster and the kids for the future.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'd rather trade Dempster and Gomes and use the money to sign Tanaka. I'd even think of trading Dempster and Peavy to get the money for Tanaka, and use whatever is left over to find a cheap but great defensive SS as insurance for Middy.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Iglesias would come in pretty handy right now. Wouldn't he.

    I should hurry up and take Burrito off ignore and read his post before either he gets banned or the post gets deleted anyway. I wouldn't want to miss anything important.

    Oh yeah, another fine post from our illustrious village idiot.

    Crit, I nailed this season as much as anyone. The only major thing I got wrong was that I didn't think Ortiz would be as good and I didn't even want to re sign him so that was pretty much a disaster. How would that have worked out once we got to the world series if we even made it that far. I thought he was probably a PED user but he made it through this year clean and as far as I'm concerned now he has my vote for the HOF. The guy has been passing blood test after blood test. No mtter what he has done in the past or is doing now, he's passing the tests and we need to just assume he's clean. It's the right thing to do.

    I also thought Middlebrooks would do better but who didn't. I think I was on target a heck of a lot more than just about anyone else here regarding the projected record of the redsox even when almost everyone thought they were no where near the playoffs.  I think I was right about Salty, Lackey, Ellsbury, the pen etc...but no one remembers such things so who cares. 

    I never expected them to sign Kuroda this winter but I still think he would help us more than Napoli will. I didn't expect hardly anything I proposed this winter to happen but I said what I thought they should do and we will see what ends up being the best course.

    Who wants to bet that Napoli doesn't have as good a year as Kuroda, Choo or Tanaka. I bet it's not even close. But no one will remember it anyway.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Thinking about it Moon, both Dempster or Drew would be injury depth options to me so I think I would still prefer Dempster. Most would think Dempster is less likely to earn his keep though but we are more likely to need a starter due to an injury. We don't have good depth at SS though so it's maybe a wash.



    Your supreme faith in Middy rivals that of ....  say...

    ... Josh Reddick.

    Undecided



    I don't think I have supreme faith in either of them but notice that Reddick is still a starting level player for a division champ! When others thought he was a probable washout.

    I don't expect Middlebrooks to be an all star but I do think he will be a solid regular and put up 2-3 really solid HR years at some point. I think his taste in women has gone decidedly downhill. I thought his first girlfriend was incredibly hot. Why change?

    My favorite farm players:

    Bogaerts

    Cechinni

    Betts

    Swihart

    I like JBJ a lot also but he is around #5 for me.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Consider the situation with Bogaerts. For God's sake let the kid play and let him add value like the projected ROY candidate he is likely to be. He's this year's potential Will Myers. And some here want to lose a pick, lose $10 million in revenue and reduce his potential value proposition?

    I don't get it at all.

    Wil started 2013 in AAA. I think the Rays gained a year of control by waiting.

    Not a good example to use in your argument.

     

    I'm not saying I am for starting Bogey in AAA, but I was just pointing out that there is a benefit to our future by doing so, just as the draft pick tied to the Drew question can benefit our future.



    The point was that it was a bad trade FOR KC. KC didn't add value before trading him. They bailed on a guy who put up huge numbers just the year before and was the consensus potential ROY. 

    Middlebrooks's value may go up or it may go down, but to me considering the injuries and the numbers he had put up in years prior to 2013, I think he probably adds value if he stays and plays.

    He hit .276 after coming back from AAA. I'm fine with that with his power potential.



    Depends on how much just one GM out there values him right now.

    If he is as good as many posters here believe he is, then why is it such a stretch to think one GM out there desperate for a 3Bman would offer fair value in return for taking a chance on Middy right now?

    Other GM might believe he "adds value" by playing in 2014.

     
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