A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Someone is going to be real teed off if the Dodgers don't win championships with that kind of TV deal. They are expected to dominate. And the Yankees deal is set until 2038 if I remember correctly so they can't do all that much about it. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Talk about a guy who has been under the radar forever. What doesn't workman have to do to get more street cred? He's still down around #10 on soxprospects.

    If the Sox trade Dempster to make space for Workman doesn't that say a lot?



    Yeah well he was pretty far down on the list last year. We tried Aceves, Webster, Wright and Morales as starters also.

    Workman did well in his 3 starts:

    6.1 IP 2 ER (3 H + BB)

    6.0 IP 2 ER (9 H + BB)

    6.0 IP 1 ER (7 H + BB)

    Total: 2.45 ERA/ 1.036 WHIP (.555 OPS against)

    FYI: his relief numbers:

    6.94/1.714 (.884)

    but in the post season 8.2 IP 0.00/1.154

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Someone is going to be real teed off if the Dodgers don't win championships with that kind of TV deal. They are expected to dominate. And the Yankees deal is set until 2038 if I remember correctly so they can't do all that much about it. 



    But don't the Yanks own the YES Network?

    Does it matter where their profits come from or are "hidden"?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I've seen estimates of Yankee ownership ranging from 20-25% and the TV deal they signed lasts for many more years. A few years ago it was considered tremendous. Now it is not even remotely as attractive as some of the other deals. The Dodgers deal is dwarfing everyone. The Redsox with 80% ownership of their sports network are much better positioned than the Yanks long term.

    The Yankees get $90 mil per year AAV but only own 25% or so of the network. 

    The Redsox get $60 mil per year but the ownership group owns 80% of the network.

    Still, the valuation of the franchises are weighted towards the Yanks due to the bigger market, more seats in the stadium...etc. I think if analysts took a long look at the TV deals though they might want to reconsider. As distribution stratifies via Roku, Chromecast, Apple TV, Hulu Plus, Netflix etc...and cable providers are potentially able to offer ala carte programming more efficiently, networks like NESN will become huge cash cows as regional sports powerhouses.

    Consider that "ESPN" is now worth more market cap than "ABC" ( the national network ). It delivers live sports broadcasting that people do not just click away from every time there is a commercial. They charge over $4 per subscriber to your local cable system to carry it, and subscribers demand it. And this is getting replicated all over the world.

    To a much lower extent this sort of thing will also happen around the world with NESN. The bulk of that impact is still several years away of course but it's coming. People are leaving cable and flocking to Netflix, Hulu, Chromecast...etc. Internet TV will be HUGE.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    When Luchino commisioned a study to be done regarding marketing the team a few years ago, they came back with the need for marquis players to increase viewership of NESN. I'm convinced that Ortiz was brought back in large part to appeal to that fan base. He looked like he was fading. But they brought him back anyway. They brought in Crawford for the same reason in my view. It was viewed as cost effective. 

    I don't see the impact of foriegn markets becoming big any time soon but there is movement in that direction and teams do care about it, including the Redsox. They probably felt burned a little with Matsuzaka. But they still care about international markets. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'm sure you agree Boom, but I think it's silly to judge any past player's performance--Dice K--by the potential of some future player.  I hope RS are beyond that.   Not to warm up old hash' but I still think RS could have done a better job with smoothing cultural, philosophical, baseball issues with DKM that may have helped him do better.  I would think we now might be in a better place to help a Japanese player with several countrymen on the team--and an interpreter?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    When Luchino commisioned a study to be done regarding marketing the team a few years ago, they came back with the need for marquis players to increase viewership of NESN. I'm convinced that Ortiz was brought back in large part to appeal to that fan base. He looked like he was fading. But they brought him back anyway. They brought in Crawford for the same reason in my view. It was viewed as cost effective. 

    I don't see the impact of foriegn markets becoming big any time soon but there is movement in that direction and teams do care about it, including the Redsox. They probably felt burned a little with Matsuzaka. But they still care about international markets. 



    Certainly Tanaka would make more money for a west coast team, but he could help us win for many years to come.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    I'm sure you agree Boom, but I think it's silly to judge any past player's performance--Dice K--by the potential of some future player.  I hope RS are beyond that.   Not to warm up old hash' but I still think RS could have done a better job with smoothing cultural, philosophical, baseball issues with DKM that may have helped him do better.  I would think we now might be in a better place to help a Japanese player with several countrymen on the team--and an interpreter?



    And I hope this "we can't get burned by another CC" mentality doesn't come back to bite us in the you know what.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I've seen estimates of Yankee ownership ranging from 20-25% and the TV deal they signed lasts for many more years. A few years ago it was considered tremendous. Now it is not even remotely as attractive as some of the other deals. The Dodgers deal is dwarfing everyone. The Redsox with 80% ownership of their sports network are much better positioned than the Yanks long term.

    The Yankees get $90 mil per year AAV but only own 25% or so of the network. 

    The Redsox get $60 mil per year but the ownership group owns 80% of the network.

    Still, the valuation of the franchises are weighted towards the Yanks due to the bigger market, more seats in the stadium...etc. I think if analysts took a long look at the TV deals though they might want to reconsider. As distribution stratifies via Roku, Chromecast, Apple TV, Hulu Plus, Netflix etc...and cable providers are potentially able to offer ala carte programming more efficiently, networks like NESN will become huge cash cows as regional sports powerhouses.

    Consider that "ESPN" is now worth more market cap than "ABC" ( the national network ). It delivers live sports broadcasting that people do not just click away from every time there is a commercial. They charge over $4 per subscriber to your local cable system to carry it, and subscribers demand it. And this is getting replicated all over the world.

    To a much lower extent this sort of thing will also happen around the world with NESN. The bulk of that impact is still several years away of course but it's coming. People are leaving cable and flocking to Netflix, Hulu, Chromecast...etc. Internet TV will be HUGE.



    Check this out...

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-could-be-last-team-to-strike-gold-with-local-tv-deal/

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Yet top position players still make a lot more than top pitchers generally. For example Cano making a $240 mil deal and the top pitching deal is over $50 mil under that if I remember correctly. Part of that is the number of years covered though.

    Would you rather have Kershaw or Cano? Tough call but to me I think Kershaw has more impact in winning a world series but maybe Cano helps get you in the playoffs more.

    A team which is coming off a year where they easily made the playoffs would be better off by adding the top pitcher IMO.

    Garryhow, believe it or not I bet Moon and I would agree with this statement of yours: 

    " A trade or key FA wll help, but the key will be cheap young controlable talent."

    I think both of us think Tanaka is probably a "key FA".




    Hear what your saying on Tanaka. The ? is are the RS in the same position as some other teams like the Yanks who are desperate for pitching. So if your Ben do you risk 21-22 mil per [IMO the $] and hope he's more Darvish than Dice K? or do you wait to see what you have in Owens / Barnes / Raunado and hope that 1 of them can become that front of the rotation starter and be that cheap controlable asset for 6 yrs? or IMO if going to push out that kind of $, why not wait for a Kershaw or other to hit the market and pay an extra 5-6 mil and at least your absolutely sure what your getting? Some thought the signing of CC by Yanks was absurd $, in the long run was probably the best signing they've made in a long time.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I thought about boycotting BDC because of the lack of love I'm receiving on all the best poster threads, but I got over my depression quickly enough to get caught up here. I hope you all had good Holidays and have a happy and healthy new year. This is basically the only thread I post on, and I don't do that too often, so I'm not really in a position to discuss, nor be nominated, as best poster. Now back to baseball...

    I don't think there is a staff in baseball as deep from the major league starting five/six to the lower levels of the minors than this present Red Sox team. That being said, I also subscribe to the adage that you can never have enough pitching. But that being said, I think throwing upwards of $20mil per season, for as many as six/seven years, to a pitcher who has essentially never pitched a game at a level above high A or AA ball, is absolutely absurd! Now this Tanaka guy could prove me completely wrong, but I still would not do it. Ask yourselves this question. If there was no MLB draft and every high school or college player was a free agent, and one of them had a record like Tanaka's from last season in his senior year of high school or any year of college, would you chase him down, pay his high school or college $20mil and then offer him $150mil for seven years having never seen him thrown a pitch to a professional lineup? Dice K and Darvish pitched on much bigger stages both in Japan and in the World Classic and therefore were much more proven. And although very well compensated, neither commanded the money being discussed with regard to Tanaka. At the risk of having much egg on my face if and when he comes into the league and dazzles, I say put the checkbook away!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    I'm sure you agree Boom, but I think it's silly to judge any past player's performance--Dice K--by the potential of some future player.  I hope RS are beyond that.   Not to warm up old hash' but I still think RS could have done a better job with smoothing cultural, philosophical, baseball issues with DKM that may have helped him do better.  I would think we now might be in a better place to help a Japanese player with several countrymen on the team--and an interpreter?




    Theo made a few mistakes with certain players, Dice-K being one of them. He tried to "Americanize" him, which messed him up big time. Dice-K's failures started when they tried to change his routine, and the pitches he threw, etc...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Yet top position players still make a lot more than top pitchers generally. For example Cano making a $240 mil deal and the top pitching deal is over $50 mil under that if I remember correctly. Part of that is the number of years covered though.

    Would you rather have Kershaw or Cano? Tough call but to me I think Kershaw has more impact in winning a world series but maybe Cano helps get you in the playoffs more.

    A team which is coming off a year where they easily made the playoffs would be better off by adding the top pitcher IMO.

    Garryhow, believe it or not I bet Moon and I would agree with this statement of yours: 

    " A trade or key FA wll help, but the key will be cheap young controlable talent."

    I think both of us think Tanaka is probably a "key FA".




    Hear what your saying on Tanaka. The ? is are the RS in the same position as some other teams like the Yanks who are desperate for pitching. So if your Ben do you risk 21-22 mil per [IMO the $] and hope he's more Darvish than Dice K? or do you wait to see what you have in Owens / Barnes / Raunado and hope that 1 of them can become that front of the rotation starter and be that cheap controlable asset for 6 yrs? or IMO if going to push out that kind of $, why not wait for a Kershaw or other to hit the market and pay an extra 5-6 mil and at least your absolutely sure what your getting? Some thought the signing of CC by Yanks was absurd $, in the long run was probably the best signing they've made in a long time.

     




    I dont agree with giving this guy 20M per for 6-7 years either. Were not desperate for pitching and theres no way of telling how successful he will be here. There are mixed reports from scouts. some say he will be a 1 or 2 in the rotation, some say his a MOTR pitcher in MLB. Not worth taking that kind of risk for so much $$ and years.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soph. Show Soph's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Lester extension takes priority over Tanaka. I'm guessing $20M for 5 years. Yes with Monopoly money mentality I would love to have them both but in the real world highly unlikely that Sox will have two pitchers making $20M apiece.. Tanaka may have higher ceiling but Lester is more of a sure thing as of today. Never discount the Dice K experience.

    Should we sign Drew before trading Dempster/Peavy? Why not go with Xander/Will combo on the left side. Then if Will falters go acquire a defensive shortstop and move Xander over to 3rd. 

    We are already at the luxury tax threshold. If money was no object, we could have resigned Jacoby and offered Tanaka $250M for 10 years. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Soph's comment:

    Lester extension takes priority over Tanaka. I'm guessing $20M for 5 years. Yes with Monopoly money mentality I would love to have them both but in the real world highly unlikely that Sox will have two pitchers making $20M apiece.. Tanaka may have higher ceiling but Lester is more of a sure thing as of today. Never discount the Dice K experience.

    Should we sign Drew before trading Dempster/Peavy? Why not go with Xander/Will combo on the left side. Then if Will falters go acquire a defensive shortstop and move Xander over to 3rd. 

    We are already at the luxury tax threshold. If money was no object, we could have resigned Jacoby and offered Tanaka $250M for 10 years. 




    realistically, we could go a little over the LT and not have a big penalty with 17.5%. We could easily reset again in 2015 with all the $$ coming off the books. if they went to 200M this year it would be approz 2M in fines. Not a big deal for them.

    I agree though. Lester needs to be resigned for another 4-5 years.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    How would you feel about the equation if you found out that NESN revenues essentially paid for the entire Sox player payroll? And that having a top winning team versus a losing team would maintain those revenue levels as compared to a 40% reduction, as is the case in Philadelphia?

    That's $80 million in less revenues from a losing team scenario, not counting ticket sales lost and dispay ad revenues lost ...etc.

    And factor that for up to 10% TV revenue growth in local TV rights going forward over the next 5-6 years potentially. So that investment in player personnel might actually increase revenues going forward. And top player costs should also continue to increase, as we have already seen this winter. How many of you projected Ellsbury at $153 mil? That sort of thing will probably continue. 

    Kershaw supposedly turned down a $300 mil deal. Already. And I'm hopeful we can retain Lester in addition to signing Tanaka. We would almost definitely trade Dempster or Peavy though in this scenario. We only have Peavy under contract for 1 more year anyway.

    NOTE: I am not privy to all details of NESN revenue success of course. I'm just an outsider who is estimating but I'm using the published TV deals of other teams to roughly estimate the worth of the NESN revenue projections. There is some indication that there is a sports media "bubble" and that recent ad revenue growth will not necessarily continue.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    I thought about boycotting BDC because of the lack of love I'm receiving on all the best poster threads, but I got over my depression quickly enough to get caught up here. I hope you all had good Holidays and have a happy and healthy new year. This is basically the only thread I post on, and I don't do that too often, so I'm not really in a position to discuss, nor be nominated, as best poster. Now back to baseball...

    I don't think there is a staff in baseball as deep from the major league starting five/six to the lower levels of the minors than this present Red Sox team. That being said, I also subscribe to the adage that you can never have enough pitching. But that being said, I think throwing upwards of $20mil per season, for as many as six/seven years, to a pitcher who has essentially never pitched a game at a level above high A or AA ball, is absolutely absurd! Now this Tanaka guy could prove me completely wrong, but I still would not do it. Ask yourselves this question. If there was no MLB draft and every high school or college player was a free agent, and one of them had a record like Tanaka's from last season in his senior year of high school or any year of college, would you chase him down, pay his high school or college $20mil and then offer him $150mil for seven years having never seen him thrown a pitch to a professional lineup? Dice K and Darvish pitched on much bigger stages both in Japan and in the World Classic and therefore were much more proven. And although very well compensated, neither commanded the money being discussed with regard to Tanaka. At the risk of having much egg on my face if and when he comes into the league and dazzles, I say put the checkbook away!



    Jidge, that was a very motley crew listed. That sort of thing gets completely out of control in less than a page of posts. And many posters do not even participate in this thread or see any of our posts as a result. I don't have time to go to most of the other threads either, as is to a degree the case with others here I bet like Crit and Amp etc...either. Half the people here have multiple identities and promote themselves. You try to contribute to the overall success of the forum and it gets overlooked anyway. and it could just be that you, I and others just are not considered as good a poster as "insert bozo here" ...etc. Which tells you a lot about the criteria in people's minds as to what constitutes a top poster. And I'm not willing to work the rope line.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to Soph's comment:

    Lester extension takes priority over Tanaka. I'm guessing $20M for 5 years. Yes with Monopoly money mentality I would love to have them both but in the real world highly unlikely that Sox will have two pitchers making $20M apiece.. Tanaka may have higher ceiling but Lester is more of a sure thing as of today. Never discount the Dice K experience.

    Should we sign Drew before trading Dempster/Peavy? Why not go with Xander/Will combo on the left side. Then if Will falters go acquire a defensive shortstop and move Xander over to 3rd. 

    We are already at the luxury tax threshold. If money was no object, we could have resigned Jacoby and offered Tanaka $250M for 10 years. 




    realistically, we could go a little over the LT and not have a big penalty with 17.5%. We could easily reset again in 2015 with all the $$ coming off the books. if they went to 200M this year it would be approz 2M in fines. Not a big deal for them.

    I agree though. Lester needs to be resigned for another 4-5 years.



    I really don't think the luxury tax penalty is much of a concern. It's losing the estimated $25 mil in revenue sharing they are all concerned about. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    We could chose to just ride Peavy and hope he ends up having a solid season and we get a pick out of him or extend him. I just would prefer to go with the 25 year old who appears to be in his prime.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soph. Show Soph's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Again it's all about where you want to spend money. To me, giving Drew $10M is excessive when you have an affordable replacement in Xander. $10M essentially puts Drew only behind Reyes and Jeter in American League. Is his defense worth him being the 3rd highest paid shortstop? You can argue that only reason Jeter is getting his money is for his long service to the Yankees and that's not the case for Drew; granted he was a very big part of Sox success last year.

    If I really wanted Tanaka, I would have passed on Napoli (gone with cheap replacement in Carp/others), traded away salaries for Peavy, Dempster and possibly Lackey.

    That still would give us Lester, Tanaka, Buchholz, Dubront and Workman. Lot of ifs in that scenario....Bradley Jr, Middlebrooks, Carp, Doubront and Workman. 

    Instead all we need now is a defensive SS as a backup and hope Jacoby's offensive impact will be replaced by several factors (more production out of Dustin, Xander, Middlebrooks, etc)

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to jcri's comment:

    I'm sure you agree Boom, but I think it's silly to judge any past player's performance--Dice K--by the potential of some future player.  I hope RS are beyond that.   Not to warm up old hash' but I still think RS could have done a better job with smoothing cultural, philosophical, baseball issues with DKM that may have helped him do better.  I would think we now might be in a better place to help a Japanese player with several countrymen on the team--and an interpreter?




    Theo made a few mistakes with certain players, Dice-K being one of them. He tried to "Americanize" him, which messed him up big time. Dice-K's failures started when they tried to change his routine, and the pitches he threw, etc...



    I absolutely agree with this. Let him do what he has been doing. We should bring over his same pitching coach if necessary!

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Soph's comment:

    Again it's all about where you want to spend money. To me, giving Drew $10M is excessive when you have an affordable replacement in Xander. $10M essentially puts Drew only behind Reyes and Jeter in American League. Is his defense worth him being the 3rd highest paid shortstop? You can argue that only reason Jeter is getting his money is for his long service to the Yankees and that's not the case for Drew; granted he was a very big part of Sox success last year.

    If I really wanted Tanaka, I would have passed on Napoli (gone with cheap replacement in Carp/others), traded away salaries for Peavy, Dempster and possibly Lackey.

    That still would give us Lester, Tanaka, Buchholz, Dubront and Workman. Lot of ifs in that scenario....Bradley Jr, Middlebrooks, Carp, Doubront and Workman. 

    Instead all we need now is a defensive SS as a backup and hope Jacoby's offensive impact will be replaced by several factors (more production out of Dustin, Xander, Middlebrooks, etc)



    Exactly what several of us proposed.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    I thought about boycotting BDC because of the lack of love I'm receiving on all the best poster threads, but I got over my depression quickly enough to get caught up here. I hope you all had good Holidays and have a happy and healthy new year. This is basically the only thread I post on, and I don't do that too often, so I'm not really in a position to discuss, nor be nominated, as best poster. Now back to baseball...

    I don't think there is a staff in baseball as deep from the major league starting five/six to the lower levels of the minors than this present Red Sox team. That being said, I also subscribe to the adage that you can never have enough pitching. But that being said, I think throwing upwards of $20mil per season, for as many as six/seven years, to a pitcher who has essentially never pitched a game at a level above high A or AA ball, is absolutely absurd! Now this Tanaka guy could prove me completely wrong, but I still would not do it. Ask yourselves this question. If there was no MLB draft and every high school or college player was a free agent, and one of them had a record like Tanaka's from last season in his senior year of high school or any year of college, would you chase him down, pay his high school or college $20mil and then offer him $150mil for seven years having never seen him thrown a pitch to a professional lineup? Dice K and Darvish pitched on much bigger stages both in Japan and in the World Classic and therefore were much more proven. And although very well compensated, neither commanded the money being discussed with regard to Tanaka. At the risk of having much egg on my face if and when he comes into the league and dazzles, I say put the checkbook away!



    Jidge, that was a very motley crew listed. That sort of thing gets completely out of control in less than a page of posts. And many posters do not even participate in this thread or see any of our posts as a result. I don't have time to go to most of the other threads either, as is to a degree the case with others here I bet like Crit and Amp etc...either. Half the people here have multiple identities and promote themselves. You try to contribute to the overall success of the forum and it gets overlooked anyway. and it could just be that you, I and others just are not considered as good a poster as "insert bozo here" ...etc. Which tells you a lot about the criteria in people's minds as to what constitutes a top poster. And I'm not willing to work the rope line.



    Boom, that was completely tongue in cheek as I have zero interest in those other threads. Once in a great while I'll see a thread that interests me and jump on board, but 95% of my posts have been on this or past "realistic" threads. In a somewhat related matter, weren't we able to see who started each thread once upon a time? The original poster might get me interested in another thread, but for the most part I just stick with this one. I only brought up the "best posters" threads because the board seemed to be full of them. I can't imagine why we need multiples, or even one on that topic for that matter.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    I thought about boycotting BDC because of the lack of love I'm receiving on all the best poster threads, but I got over my depression quickly enough to get caught up here. I hope you all had good Holidays and have a happy and healthy new year. This is basically the only thread I post on, and I don't do that too often, so I'm not really in a position to discuss, nor be nominated, as best poster. Now back to baseball...

    I don't think there is a staff in baseball as deep from the major league starting five/six to the lower levels of the minors than this present Red Sox team. That being said, I also subscribe to the adage that you can never have enough pitching. But that being said, I think throwing upwards of $20mil per season, for as many as six/seven years, to a pitcher who has essentially never pitched a game at a level above high A or AA ball, is absolutely absurd! Now this Tanaka guy could prove me completely wrong, but I still would not do it. Ask yourselves this question. If there was no MLB draft and every high school or college player was a free agent, and one of them had a record like Tanaka's from last season in his senior year of high school or any year of college, would you chase him down, pay his high school or college $20mil and then offer him $150mil for seven years having never seen him thrown a pitch to a professional lineup? Dice K and Darvish pitched on much bigger stages both in Japan and in the World Classic and therefore were much more proven. And although very well compensated, neither commanded the money being discussed with regard to Tanaka. At the risk of having much egg on my face if and when he comes into the league and dazzles, I say put the checkbook away!



    There is a history of paying big money for pitchers from Japan, but Tanaka is going to break the record.

    He's 25 not a HS or college grad.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    This is more about 2015 than 2014, but looking ahead is part of what we do today...

    We will have a lot of money to spend after 2014.

    Lackey will be at the minimum for 2015, unless we rework his deal (extend a year?)

    Lester will probably be extended after the season starts so as not to hurt this year's luxury limit number.

    However, it will NOT be easy to replace (about $20M total):

    Ortiz ($15.5M)

    Uehara ($4.25M)

     

    These can probably be replaced at a cheaper cost (about $50M for 2014):

    Peavy ($14.5M) & Dempster ($13.25M): Workman, Britton, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, Wright, Hinojosa or others.

    Pierzynski ($8.25M) & D Ross ($3.1M): Vazquez, Lavarnway, Butler, Swihart, Denny

    J Gomes ($5M): Hassan, Brentz (Betts/Cecchini?)

    Badenhop (TBA) & Miller (TBA): (see SP list above), de la Rosa,  A Wilson, Noe Ramirez, C Hernandez, T Layne, J Ely, Watanabe

     

    Before any signings or extensions, here's what 2015 looks like....

    25 man roster             (position move or minors):

    C: Lavarnway/Vazquez (Butler/Swihart/Denny

    1B: Napoli/Carp (Middlebrooks/Snyder/T Shaw)

    2B: Pedroia/Herrera (Betts/Rijo/Coyle)

    3B: Middlebrooks (Devers)

    SS: Bogaerts (Holt/Marrero/Vinicio/Lin)

    LF: Nava/Hassan (Carp/Linares/de la Cruz)

    CF: Bradley (H Ramos/Margot)

    RF: Victorino (Brentz)

    DH: Cecchini (Nava/Carp/Lavarnway/Napoli/Betts)

    SP: Buccholz, Lackey, Doubront, Workman, Britton, Webster

          (Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens, Wright, Hinojosa, de la Rosa,

           B Johnson, T Ball, Stankiewicz, L Diaz)

    RP: Mujica, Tazawa, Breslow, de la Rosa, Villareal, A Wilson

           (Hernandez, Ely, Layne, Watanabe, N Ramirez, Kurcz, Balcom-Miller)

     

     

     
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